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Arthur C Nelson Salt Lake Realtors 1 11 10 1[1]
 

Arthur C Nelson Salt Lake Realtors 1 11 10 1[1]

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Arthur C Nelson presentation to the Salt Lake Board of Realtors

Arthur C Nelson presentation to the Salt Lake Board of Realtors

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    Arthur C Nelson Salt Lake Realtors 1 11 10 1[1] Arthur C Nelson Salt Lake Realtors 1 11 10 1[1] Presentation Transcript

    • Utah Past, Present & FAST FORWARD Arthur C. (Christian “Chris”) Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP Presidential Professor & Director Metropolitan Research Center University of Utah January 11, 2010
    • America Grows 200 million in 1968 300 million in 2006 400 million in 2034 500 million in 2050 America adds 100 million people faster than any other nation except India and Pakistan – But faster than China. Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director of Metropolitan Research, University of Utah.
    • The Boom to Come 2010-30 Area Utah Rank 1990-2010 Pop. Growth 1.2M 14 Growth Rate 68% 3 2010-2030 Pop. Growth 1.5M 11 Growth Rate 51% 1 Will rise from 34th to 28th most populous state Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.
    • The Boom to Come Salt Lake Metro Metros > 1M (52) Salt Lake Rank 1990-2010 Pop. Growth 400k 28 Growth Rate 53% 12 2010-2030 Pop. Growth 500k 27 Growth Rate 42% 8 Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.
    • The Boom to Come Salt Lake Metro More Growth than: San Antonio San Jose Tucson Virginia Beach Will Surpass: Louisville Memphis Milwaukee Oklahoma City
    • The Boom to Come Salt Lake Metro Faster Growth rate than: Orlando Dallas-Ft. Worth Denver Washington DC Tampa Seattle
    • The Boom to Come Provo & Ogden Metros Metros > 500k-1M (51) Provo Ogden 1990-2010 Pop. Growth 300k 5 210k 11 Growth Rate 110% 1 60% 5 2010-2030 Pop. Growth 360k 6 170k 20 Growth Rate 63% 2 30% 14 Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.
    • The Boom to Come Logan & St. George Metros Metros < 250k (183) Logan St. George 1990-2010 Pop. Growth 50k 32 120k 4 Growth Rate 63% 12 240% 1 2010-2030 Pop. Growth 70k 22 250k 1 Growth Rate 52% 8 150% 1 Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.
    • The Boom to Come BC, Cedar City & Heber Micros Micro (574) Brigham Cedar City Heber 1990-2010 Pop. Growth 13k 110 30k 28 15k 100 Growth Rate 36% 79 140% 5 145% 4 2010-2030 Pop. Growth 20k 61 40k 22 25k 46 Growth Rate 42% 29 75% 4 100% 1 Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.
    • 464 billion 2040 square feet 132 billion square feet 332 billion square feet 287 billion square feet 155 billion square feet 2010 2040 Source: Data from Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah. Image from Architect magazine, premier issue, November 2006.
    • Wasatch Range Megapolitan Area 2010-30 3rd fastest growing behind: Las Vegas & Sun Corridor Faster growing than “high-growth” megas: Front Range & Cascadia Sierra Pacific & Southern Cal Texas Triangle & Florida Piedmont & Chesapeake
    • Population Growth 2010-2030 Area 2010 2030 Change Percent Wasatch 2.5M 3.6M 1.1M 45% Utah 2.9M 4.4M 1.5M 50% Numbers may not calculate due to rounding. Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah. Numbers may not add or calculate due to rounding. Figures adapted from 2008 Economic Report to the Governor, Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget.
    • Residential Units 2010-2030 Area 2010 2030 New/Rebuilt %’10 Wasatch 900k 1.35M 450k 50% Utah 1.1M 1.65M 550k 50% Numbers may not calculate due to rounding. Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah. Numbers may not add or calculate due to rounding. Figures based on residential units per capita 2000 adjusted for declining household size, plus loss factor based on census analysis.
    • Employment Growth 2010-2030 Area 2010 2030 Change Percent Wasatch 1.5M 2.2M 700k 50% Utah 1.7M 2.6M 900k 50% Numbers may not calculate due to rounding. Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah. Numbers may not add or calculate due to rounding. Employment includes full- and part-time jobs as defined by BEA.
    • Nonresidential Space 2010-2030 Area 2010 2030 New/Rebuilt %’10 Wasatch 750M 1.1B 900M 120% Utah 850M 1.3B 1.2B 120% Numbers may not calculate due to rounding. Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah. Numbers may not add or calculate due to rounding.
    • Life-Span of Building Function Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director of Metropolitan Research, University of Utah, based on DoE Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey.
    • Bottom Line Construction Wasatch Megapolitan 2010-2030 Residential $190 billion Nonresidential $140 billion Infrastructure $ 70 billion Total $400 billion Annual Average $20 billion Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.
    • 40,000 Housing Units Short Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah
    • Substantial Pent-Up Demand 100,000 more Utahns “doubling up” than 2005. Pent-up demand for about 40,000 new units Economic recovery will mean housing gets a One-Two Punch: New homes needed to serve growth New homes needed to reduce doubling up During 2010 & 2011100,000 new units needed But ….
    • How Does It Grow?
    • Households are Changing Household Type 1960 2000 2040 US HH with Children 48% 33% 26% HH without Children 52% 67% 74% Single/Other HH 13% 29% 34% _________________________________________ Utah HH with Children 47% 38% HH without Children 53% 62% Single/Other HH 18% 22% Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.
    • People Turning 65 Each Year [Figures in 000s] 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 90 75 80 85 50 55 60 65 70 20 20 20 19 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 Source: US Census Bureau – 65+ in the United States: 2005; Wan He, Manisha Sengupta, Victoria A. Velkoff, & Kimberly A DeBarros. December 2005 .
    • Share of Growth 2000-2040 US HH Type Share With children 14% Without children 86% Single/Other 30% Utah With children 25% Without children 75% Single/Other 25% Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.
    • “New Urbanity” Preferences Source: National Association of Realtors, American Preference Survey 2004.
    • Importance of Community Attributes 1. Housing type (23-26%) 2. Neighborhood age/life stage mix 1/2 to 2/3 (55-65%) (20-24%) 7 3. Public transportation options 6 (12-14%) 1 4. Type of community (12-15%) 5. Size of yard (11-12%) 5 6. Open space (9-11%) 7. Architectural design (5-6%) 4 2 Source: Adapted from Harris Interactive for Envision Utah 3
    • Preferred Community Attributes Housing type: Mix of single family Preferred homes & town homes Combination of 75% of Neighborhood age/life stage Utahns mix: Mix of ages & stages Public transportation options: Was about Bus, Rail, TRAX 25% in 1990s Type of community: Village Lot size: Variety of lot sizes Open space: Active & passive Architecture: Distinctive Source: Envision Utah based on Harris Interactive
    • New Housing Market Realities Sub-prime mortgages are history Alt-A mortgages no more FHA-like conventional mortgages king “Jumbo” loans problematic Demand for $1million+ homes tanked Realization that location matters for investment Meaning Smaller homes on smaller lots More renters Trend to more “urbane” location options
    • Growth Share by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2000 2030 Rate Share White* 1.5M 2.1M 40% 45% Non-White 260k 1.0M 285% 55% *Non-Hispanic White Source: Adapted from Woods & Poole Economics (2008) by Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP, Presidential Professor and Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.
    • Home Ownership by Ethnicity - Utah Ethnicity Ownership 2006 All Households 72% White* 74% Black 48% Hispanic 50% Asian/Pacific Islander 53% *Non-Hispanic White Source: Freddie Mac.
    • The Future is all About Education 100 Latina/o Elementary 100 White Elementary Students Students 40 High School Graduates 84 High School Graduates 4 College Graduates 26 College Graduates 1 Masters Degree 10 Masters Degrees ~0.1 Doctorate 1 Doctorate Source: Adapted from Octavio Villalpando, University of Utah.
    • Shifting Tenure Market Salt Lake, Provo & Ogden Metros Tenure 2006 2030 Change Share Owner 480k 650k 170k 51% Renter 200k 360k 160k 49% Total 680k 1.0M 330k 2008-2015 2/3–3/4 of New Housing will be for Renters including those who rent detached homes Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.
    • 2040 1+1+5+25 = Wasatch “New Urbanity” Demand 1%+ Demand for downtown SLC 40,000 people (minimum) 1%+ Demand for secondary centers (Ogden, Sandy, Provo) 40,000 people 5%+ Demand for near-center living (Several SLC locations) 200,000 people 25%+ Demand for transit-connected, suburban planned communities (Day Break) 1,000,000 people = Two-thirds of all new development to 2040
    • Top Planning Programs
    • THANK YOU http://metroresearch.utah.edu/