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Carl Telford - Domotics Tech and Fragile People. International trends and development scenarios.

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  • 1. 1 www.strategicbusinessinsights.com Domotics Tech and Fragile People International trends and development scenarios © 2013 by Strategic Business Insights. All rights reserved.© 2013 by Strategic Business Insights. All rights reserved. July 2013 Carl Telford, PhD Program Manager, Scan ctelford@sbi-i.com
  • 2. 2 Strategic Business Insights (SBI): Who we are and what we do A spin-off from SRI International, SBI is headquartered in the heart of Silicon Valley. Scanning: SBI’s Scan service helps users understand change in business, technology, and society. Technology analysis: SBI’s Explorer service provides a continuous look at 32 important technologies. Consulting: We help clients at the ‘fuzzy front end.’ With Shell, we developed scenario planning in the 1970s. We create roadmaps…
  • 3. 3 We created a domotics roadmap with AREA
  • 4. 4 Next-generation telecare • Health/wellness/emergency • Telecare: key part of healthcare • Private, bespoke systems • Systems on smartphones/tablets Service robotics • Robot companions • Exoskeletons • Domestic task assistance Home automation platforms • Security • Lighting and heating • Food preparation We created a domotics roadmap with AREA
  • 5. 5 Robert Thomas Physics Scenario Planning Lucy Young Egyptology Bioscience Technologies Peter Batty Physics Consumer Electronics Carl Telford Materials Eng. “Scanning” Kyle Whitman English & Law Future Homes & Connectivity Rob Edmonds Cognitive Sci. Collaboration Tools & Learning Gareth Lamb Chemistry Industrial Chemicals/Mats Nanomaterials Advanced Materials SBI Function Background The SBI team: “What could happen in 10 to 15 years…?” Alastair Cunningham
  • 6. 6 External Environment: Opportunities and Threats SBI research (Scan, Explorer, technology roadmaps) Approximately 15 Clusters 5 Themes [“Development Scenarios”] Presentation Business Publications Scientific Journals Trade Publications Personal Observations Consulting Work Web 2.0 Media Magazines Interviews ConferencesNewspapers Clustering Refinement Chaotic Unstructured Focused Structured Application of SBI’s Scan™ process
  • 7. 7 The team did some data collection… We collected relevant data from Scan, Explorer, the domotics roadmap, projects, personal interest… Focus on technology and industry developments
  • 8. 8 … and clustering
  • 9. 9
  • 10. 10 Available in our App Store
  • 11. 11 “Homes become App platforms” Premise: Enabling technologies such as tablets, touchscreens, multimedia, sensors, and automation become pervasive, forming a platform for “Domotic Apps.” Signposts • Apple's increasing role in home automation • Microsoft buys id8 Group and working to turn surfaces into interactive displays • Amateur Siri system ‘controls everything but the kitchen sink’ • Wonderwall: High-tech home- assisted living for the elderly Photo: c/o Gizmag
  • 12. 12 “Homes become App platforms” Premise: Enabling technologies such as tablets, touchscreens, multimedia, sensors, and automation become pervasive, forming a platform for “Domotic Apps.” Implications • Lessons from other sectors (e.g. automotive and TV) suggest integrating cell phones as processors and controllers rather than replicating their functionality elsewhere is a successful approach. • Home automation hardware could become standard; customization could occur via Apps • Telecare? One could be able to download a fragile- person specific App (“Keep an Eye on Mum v3.1”) from an online store.
  • 13. 13 I’ll find the keys…
  • 14. 14 “Home as a second brain” Premise: Within 10-15 years, home automation and related technologies make it impossible to forget where your keys are, to take pills, or what a recipe is… Signposts • Alzheimer’s: a huge global problem • New technologies can augment fragile mental capabilities • Enablers include the “internet of things” (IoT), smart surfaces, social alarms, cellular reminder services, augmented reality… • Players such as Intel are developing 3D object recognition systems.
  • 15. 15 “Home as a second brain” Implications • Could prove a real boost for care of fragile people, especially if they have mental-health problems (e.g. early-stage dementia / Alzheimer’s) • Real balance is needed; while mental augmentation can help day-to-day living, ‘mental exercise’ is extremely important • Privacy and security must be maintained. Premise: Within 10-15 years, home automation and related technologies make it impossible to forget where your keys are, to take pills, or what a recipe is…
  • 16. 16
  • 17. 17 “Next-generation eating” Premise: Food is getting smarter. Within 10-15 years, food preparation, diet customization, and food-safety become automatic processes in domotic environments Signposts • Food needs of an aging population • Smart surfaces • Food-safety & allergen sensing • 3D printing of food… • … and many future-kitchen concepts from IKEA, Electrolux, Whirlpool. Photo: c/o TNO (Netherlands) / Popular Mechanics
  • 18. 18 “Next-generation eating” Implications • People have different dietary preferences and needs • A balance is needed between providing assistance and providing healthy ‘mental exercise’ • Domotics technologies overlap with food safety, food preparation, and customization. Premise: Food is getting smarter. Within 10-15 years, food preparation, diet customization, and food-safety become automatic processes in domotic environments
  • 19. 19 Hello
  • 20. 20 “Home robots… finally” Premise: The demands of an aging population drive demand for domestic robots significantly by 2025 Signposts • Healthcare systems are overstretched • Microsoft: ageing population will drive domestic robots • People prefer care robots to care homes? • Robots already developed for food- preparation applications • Spin-offs: Single-use domestic robots, security robots, physical assist, health- monitoring, telepresence... domotics. Photo: c/o Robosoft
  • 21. 21 “Home robots… finally” Implications • Although progress has appeared slow, large players and research laboratories are still developing robotics for care applications • The overlap between domotics and robotics is an interesting and significant area • Robotics can provide inspiration for domotics companies and developers… and perhaps some enabling technologies. Premise: The demands of an aging population drive demand for domestic robots significantly by 2025
  • 22. 22
  • 23. 23 “Japanese domotification” Premise: Years of Japanese R&D in home automation, robotics all pay dividends. By 2025, Japanese players lead the world in the commercialization of domotics. Signposts • Nippon TV will start its Elderly- Monitoring Service • Japan’s advanced kitchen/food robots (Suzumo, Motoman, Sharp) • Japanese ‘smart homes’ in New York • Japan to pick robots and automation over immigrants? • Honda begins leasing its Walking Assist Exoskeleton Photo: c/o Honda
  • 24. 24 “Japanese domotification” Implications • Players face extensive competition from Japanese companies; some are very large players (Honda, Motoman, Sharp) • Looking at developments in Japan is extremely important—especially technology approaches for helping fragile people • Potential collaborators and partners…? Premise: Years of Japanese R&D in home automation, robotics all pay dividends. By 2025, Japanese players lead the world in the commercialization of domotics.
  • 25. 25 Concluding remarks • Domotics is a diverse and evolving technology area— overlapping functions include entertainment, heating, lighting, physical assistance, eating, care & wellness… • In terms of supporting fragile people, domotics could - Reduce burden on national healthcare systems - Help fragile people stay in their own homes - Improve safety, security, and quality of life. • Consumer-electronics companies are active in the domotics space; players should look out for competition • Robotics and domotics technology areas have synergies; robotics R&D could spin-out into domotics applications • Domotics should play a supporting, not cosseting role!
  • 26. 26 Thank you very much for listening! From all at SBI Carl Telford Program Manager, Scan Strategic Business Insights Knollys House Croydon CR0 6SR United Kingdom ctelford@sbi-i.com +44 208 256 1416 www.strategicbusinessinsights.com