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Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013

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  • 1. Come progettare l’evoluzione tecnologica dell’impresa Stephen Taylor – Dirigente, Servizio Trasferimento Tecnologico AREA Science Park www.cebbis.eu …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………The CEBBIS project is implemented through the Central Europe Programme co-financed by the ERDF
  • 2. Dall’idea al mercato ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu RICERCA AZIENDA MERCATOsottotitolo presentazione IDEA SVILUPPO PRODOTTO
  • 3. SRI Cinque discipline ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu dell’InnovazioneCome garantire innovazioni di alto valore X X X X =Importante Creazione Campioni Team Alineamento Valrore peresigenza di di Valore Organizzativo il cliente emercato successo per l’aziendaMirare al valore più alto possibile per il clienteUsare “Best Practices” per innovare spinto damiglioramento continuo
  • 4. ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.euBusiness Intelligence
  • 5. Business ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu IntelligenceWikipedia: un insieme di processi aziendali per raccogliere ed analizzare informazioni strategiche. la tecnologia utilizzata per realizzare questi processi, le informazioni ottenute come risultato di questi processi.Questa espressione è stata coniata nel 1958 da Hans Peter Luhn,ricercatore e inventore tedesco, mentre stava lavorando per IBM.
  • 6. Business ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Intelligence Business Intelligence: raccolta ed elaborazione di dati da parte delle organizzazioni. “I dati raccolti vengono opportunamente elaborati e vengono utilizzati per supportare concretamente - sulla base di dati attuali - le decisioni di chi occupa ruoli direzionali (capire landamento delle performance dellazienda, generare stime previsionali, ipotizzare scenari futuri e future strategie di risposta). In secondo luogo le informazioni possono essere analizzate a differenti livelli di dettaglio e gerarchico per qualsiasi altra funzione aziendale: marketing, commerciale, finanza, personale o altre.” (http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_intelligence) Tool: SBI “Explorer”, mappe tecnologiche di settori innovativi.
  • 7. Business ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu IntelligenceUn esempio di collaborazione internazionale di AREA:Strategic Business Insights (SBI), uno spin-off di SRI International, formerly Stanford Research Institute: le Technology Map di Explorer
  • 8. SBI e SRI ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu International SBI SRI InternationalDedicated management- SRI More than 1800 scientists,consulting practice: Worldwide Locations technologists, engineers, andPioneer of scenario planning for futurists worldwidestrategy development More than 100 disciplinesScan: Alerting clients to early Tokyosigns of change More than 1000 active research Seoul and consulting projects at any timeExplorer: Commercial Londonopportunities from over 30 Service to more than 2000 client Menlo companies every yeartechnology areas including Parkelectronics and IT, process and Princeton Outsourcing of R&Dbiotechnologies, energy and Washington, DCmaterialsThe VALS™ typology for consumeracceptance of technology New Technology Spin-Off Companies Firms like Nuance that provide commercial applications for SRI- developed technologies
  • 9. SRI International: la ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu storia dell’innovazione1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 ERMA Banking HDTV Computer Optical Disk Scenario-Based Prototype Reading Planning CBOT, CME Ink Jet Printing Halofantrine Hand-Held Continuous Speech Falciparum malaria Computer Recognition for treatment marketed Telepresence Surgery Telephone by SmithKline and Transactions A new method of the WHO performing surgery usingMICR Encoding Multimedia computer-mediatedfor Checks Electronic surgical tools that provide i4 Mail improved accuracy and flexibility, Mouse Input Information especially in minimally All Magnetic Device Security invasive procedures, Logic and provide a future technology platform for Hirudin Hypertext remotely performing Small protein that inhibits surgical procedures major blood-clotting, used Pen-Input in the treatment of Computing cardiovascular disease and Modem Acoustic cancer Coupler ARPA net
  • 10. Alcuni spin off ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu di SRI InternationalSBI - StrategicBusiness Insights
  • 11. Explorer: le ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu tecnologie monitorateAdvanced Silicon Microelectronics NanoelectronicsBiocatalysis NanomaterialsBiomaterials Novel Ceramic/Metallic MaterialsBiopolymers Optoelectronics/PhotonicsBiosensors Organic ElectronicsConnected Cars Pervasive ComputingConnected Homes PhotovoltaicsEngineering Polymers Polymer-Matrix CompositesFlat-Panel Displays Portable Electronic DevicesFuel Cells Portable PowerGenomics Renewable Energy TechnologiesKnowledge-Based Systems RFID TechnologiesKnowledge-Management Tools RoboticsMembrane Separation Smart MaterialsMEMS/Micromachining Solid-State MicrosensorsMobile Communications User InterfacesNanobiotechnology Virtual Worlds
  • 12. Le schede di ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Explorer Commercial Development Parameters Opportunities: Applications Synergistic Technologies • Interfaces (Human-Machine, Machine to • Miniature Power Sources Machine, Machine to Environment) • Ubiquitous Embedded Processing • Wireless Networks (Cellular, Bluetooth, • Software Architecture Wi-Fi) • Identification of Nodes Required Resources Demand Factors • Partnering Capabilities • Military and Government • IT Expertise • Industrial/Commercial • Spectrum Licenses • Consumer • Funding for Research and Development 1 2 3 Regulatory Factors 4 General Constraints • Value Capture Opportunities: Business Environment 5 • Privacy • Standards and Interoperability • Security • Storage and Scalability Competing Technologies • Liability • Cost • Current Computing Environment • Human ToolsBuilding Blocks of the ImplicationsTechnology • Growth in GMO-Production Technology • Growth in GMO-Production Technology • Product Formulation Improved by • Application for Nanotechnologies Biopolymers • High-Throughput Screening • Favorable Regulation of Functional Foods Improvements and Nutraceuticals • Progress of Combinatorial Methods • Consumer Preferences Move toward • Advances in Enzymatic and Cell-Free Convenience Foods and Functional and Synthesis Nutraceutical Foods A B New technologies will lead Biopolymers enhance food to novel biopolymers. qualities and production. Implications of Commercialization A+B+C Bioploymer-enabled food processing enhances food formulation and provides a competitive edge in A+C the industry. Biopolymers enhance performance of consumer and industrial products and processes. Players A+C Fine control of biopolymer production through cellular synthesis leads to customizable material features, and GMOs become a key source for biopolymer production. Issues and Uncertainties A+C+D Advanced medical treatments and devices emerge. C Biopolymers gradually replace petroleum-based materials. Enabling Com ponents Added Value System s • Basic Node Com ponents • Netw ork Infrastructure • Factors and Events That Will Enable Technology Commercialization — Intel — Cisco Emerging Commercial Opportunities — Motorola — Siem ens — Hitachi • Softw areArchitecture Intelligent • Interface Nodes — SRI International Standards and Wireless Privacy Agents — Speech Works — IBM Corporation Human- Interoperability Ne tworks — Philips Speech Processing High Computer — HP Laboratories Interfaces Contex t — Nuance — PARC Softwa re Awareness • Work Nodes Smart Spaces Productivity • Standards Impact Business — Palm — Bluetooth SIG Security Models — Sunbeam — IETF — Matsushita Electric — IEEE Medium Applications • Mobile Autonom ous Sw arm s — Nokia — Crossbow T chnologies e — NTT DoCoMo Low — Xybernaut • Personal Netw orks • Sm art Spaces — Sensatex — Display Edge Technology — Sony Low Me dium High — Sym bol Technologies — MIT Media Lab Uncertainty
  • 13. Capire la………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu tecnologia
  • 14. Capire i parametri di sviluppo commerciale ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.euPervasive Computing Synergistic Technologies • Interfaces (Human-Machine, Machine to • Miniature Power Sources Machine, Machine to Environment) • Ubiquitous Embedded Processing • Wireless Networks (Cellular, Bluetooth, • Software Architecture Wi-Fi) • Identification of Nodes Required Resources Demand Factors • Partnering Capabilities • Military and Government • IT Expertise • Industrial/Commercial • Spectrum Licenses • Consumer • Funding for Research and Development 1 2 3 General Constraints 4 Regulatory Factors • Value Capture 5 • Privacy • Standards and Interoperability • Security • Storage and Scalability Competing Technologies • Liability • Cost • Current Computing Environment • Human Tools
  • 15. Capire l’impatto potenziale ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu e le aree da monitorarePervasive Computing Intelligent Wireless Standards and Privacy Agents Human- Interoperability Networks High Computer Context Interfaces Software Awareness Smart Spaces Productivity Impact Business Security Models Medium Low Low Medium High Uncertainty
  • 16. Capire le implicazioni della ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu commercializzazioneBiopolymers • Growth in GMO-Production Technology • Growth in GMO-Production Technology • Product Formulation Improved by • Application for Nanotechnologies Biopolymers • High-Throughput Screening • Favorable Regulation of Functional Foods Improvements and Nutraceuticals • Progress of Combinatorial Methods • Consumer Preferences Move toward • Advances in Enzymatic and Cell-Free Convenience Foods and Functional and Synthesis Nutraceutical Foods A B New technologies will lead Biopolymers enhance food to novel biopolymers. qualities and production. Implications of Commercialization A+B+C Bioploymer-enabled food processing enhances food formulation and provides a competitive edge in the industry. A+C Biopolymers enhance performance of consumer and industrial products and processes. A+C Fine control of biopolymer production through cellular synthesis leads to customizable material features, and GMOs become a key source for biopolymer production. A+C+D Advanced medical treatments and devices emerge. C Biopolymers gradually replace petroleum-based materials. • Factors and Events That Will Enable Technology Commercialization - 18 - Emerging Commercial Opportunities
  • 17. Le opportunità ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.euOPPORTUNITIES FOR SMART MATERIALS Emerging Applications Industry Current Applications Within 5 Years Within 10 Years Engine, Drive-Train and Fasteners Vibration Self-Repair Suspension Components Control Automotive Light and Smart Mirrors Self-Repairing Coatings Heat Control Haptic Structural Monitoring Smart and Aerospace and Vibration and Adaptive Defense Noise Control Structures Actuators Minimally Drug Delivery Self-Powered Orthopedics and Medical Invasive Monitoring Prosthetics Surgery Medical Analysis Devices Valves Energy-Saving Earthquake Dampers Noise Control and Seals Systems Industrial, Power and Construction Vibration Control NDTE Motors and Actuators Smart Structures 19 -
  • 18. Catene del valore ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu VALUE CHAIN FOR SMART MATERIALS IN AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE APPLICATIONS Enabling Components Applications Smart Materials Aircraft, Research and Parts and and Vehicles, Development Title Systems Title Title Components and WeaponsKey R&D and Funding Magnetostrictives Defense SystemsQinetiQ Newlands Scientific BAE Systems Lockheed MartinDARPA Etrema Products Northrop Grumman General DynamicsU.S. Navy Raytheon TextronU.S. Army Shape-Memory Alloys United Technologies ThalesSRI International • EADS NV AdaptaMIT Aerospace Components Aircraft matNASA Rolls-Royce Boeing Memory MetalleORNL Smiths Industries Airbus NDC Memry Corp. General Electric Bombardier Dynalloy, Inc. Siemens AG Dassault Smart Polymers Heraeus Materials Textron Saab AB Cornerstone Hindustan Aerospace Bayer MaterialScience Piezoelectrics Many Suppliers
  • 19. Scan: Open ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Intelligence Insight about the defining forces of the business environment  Peripheral vision for innovation  Frameworks—identification of threats and opportunities—for successful strategies  Scanning for early signals of change
  • 20. Most Systems Target Key External Information ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Identify the kind of information that is important strategically Watch Focus StudyCreate a list of most Study in depth thoseimportant information items that require deepand trends to understanding beforesystematically monitor Act action takes place Execute actions triggered and supported by the intelligence activities
  • 21. Most Businesses Excel In Targeted Intelligence ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Targeted Intelligence processes:  Monitor topics identified through an internal company process or by key decision makers  Track development of issues that have strategic importance  Stimulate and trigger decision making Once important intelligence topics are identified, decision makers know how to analyze them—  Where to go for more information  How to monitor changes  When to report back on new developments
  • 22. Scanning: ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Open Intelligence Scanning enables companies to look continuously across diverse sources for new signals of change that may have an impact but are not yet on a company watch list. Scanning brings many new ideas to light. Scan Watch Focus StudyCreate a list of most Study in depth thoseimportant information items that requireand trends tosystematically Act deep understanding before action takesmonitor place Execute actions
  • 23. Scan is an Open ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Intelligence Process Open Intelligence processes:  Provide early warning about topics not yet identified as strategic  Continuously scan unstructured information about the external environment  Cluster data points into topic areas of possible strategic importance  Identify new topics of strategic importance (through sorting and ranking) that may require monitoring in the targeted process Decision makers need a process to identify and apply intelligence from the volumes of unstructured external information in a way that is:  Continuous  Systematic  Refreshing to the targeted intelligence processes
  • 24. The Process ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Of Scanning Monthly Scan Meeting Monthly Set of 100 AbstractsScanners Patternand Their RecognitionAbstracts Signals of Scan Change of Signals Scan Change of Signals (on the Scan of Signals Consultatio Insights Scan n onInsights specific Change (on the Scan (on theScan Change Web and in (on the Scan Analysis and Insights Signals of Change the (onInsights Web and in Scan (on the Web the Scan (on Scanand in Scan Research Scan Web) the (on Web and in Monthly) Scan Web) Scan Monthly) Scan Scan Web) Monthly) Web) Monthly)
  • 25. Scan™ Abstract ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu OriginsWe look for In all arenas  Faint signals of change  Consumer behavior  Discontinuities  Regulations/politics  Inflection points  Business processes  Disruptive technologies  Culture  Outliers  Publicopinion  Unconventional wisdom  Science and Technology
  • 26. Finding Clusters Of ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Related AbstractsScan abstracts typically cluster around industry categories.Abstracts about Abstracts about Advertising and Health Care Wireless Retailing Technologies Potential Defining Forces Privacy Abstracts about Abstracts about Education Abstracts about Information Technologies Manufacturing and the Internet
  • 27. Clustering ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Close-upScan provides a way to recognize interesting ideas and drivers of change acrossindustry categories. How do these abstracts relate to each other? They all involve continuous monitoring.
  • 28. Prioritizing ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Clusters Requires Requires Continue to WaitAct immediate MonitorNow study and action See
  • 29. Benefits Of ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Scan Process Specific benefits:  Provides advance warning of possible emerging technological, commercial, and cultural trends  Fosters broad vision outside normal industry domains  Sets up an analytical framework for deflating media hype  Nurtures futures thinking more broadly in the organization. Broad structural benefit:  Scanning is a reliable way to navigate through the turbulence of change. It allows decision makers to identify: – What to watch – What to study – What to act upon now
  • 30. Scan ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.euInsight about the defining forces of the business environment  Peripheral vision for innovation  Frameworks—identification of threats and opportunities—for successful strategies  Scanning for early signals of change
  • 31. Emerging ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Technologies: Explorer for continued monitoring and Next evaluation Generation Technologies to identify commercial opportunities from emerging Scan technologiesfor early signsof change and trends 5 to 15 years 0 to 7 years before commercialization before commercialization
  • 32. ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Establishing Your OwnOpen Intelligence Process
  • 33. Key Success Factors For www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Open Intelligence Systems Require a senior level champion Select Scan meeting participants carefully. They need:  breadth of expertise  non-judgmental attitudes  a creative spirit  self-motivation  humor Select a good facilitator Capturethe meeting discussion Hold meetings on a regular basis
  • 34. Key Success Factors For www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Open Intelligence Systems Provide incentives for submitting abstracts and attending meetings (for example, a newsletter where cool ideas are reported) Design a simple process for abstract submission (such as on-line submission) Integrate the open intelligence process into the decision making process Protect from “accountantitis”—the demand for documentation of a return on investment for the cost of the meetings. Develop a regularly scheduled process for determining if/when watch list topics need to removed, studied and/or acted on
  • 35. ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.euForesight
  • 36. Foresight ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.euForesight is the application of a systematic, participatory,future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term visionbuilding process to informing present-day decisions andmobilising joint actions at the national and regional level. (Miles and Keenan 2002)
  • 37. Business ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu ForesightBusiness Foresight: “processo sistematico partecipativo checomporta la rilevazione di informazioni e la creazione divisioni sul futuro a medio-lungo termine, destinato adorientare le decisioni del presente e a mobilitare i mezzinecessari per azioni congiunte.”(Commissione Europea - Direzione Generale Ricerca)
  • 38. Tipologie ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu di foresightFORESIGHT AREE DI ATTORI OBIETTIVITIPOLOGIA RICERCA Paesi e  Politica  Dirige gliFORESIGHT Istituzioni  Economia investimenti diNAZIONALE Nazionali  Società una nazione Centri di  IndustriaFORESIGHT Ricerca  Identifica trend  TecnologiaSETTORIALE associazioni di industriali categoria  Disegno  Industria  Da input allaFORESIGHT  Tecnologia strategia AziendaAZIENDALE  Disegno  Da input alla  Prodotti ricerca
  • 39. Foresight ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Politica pianificazione & decisioni ForesightProspettive Partecipazione & futuri & networking
  • 40. Foresight - ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu caratteristiche Foresight is not only about analysing or contemplating future developments but supporting actors to actively shape the future. PurelyAction oriented analytical studies of possible futures without connection to possible actions are not considered as Foresight. Foresight assumes that the future is not pre-determined. The future can therefore evolve in different directions, which can be shaped to someOpen to extent by the actions of various players and the decisions taken today. Inalternative futures other words, there is a certain degree of freedom to choose among the alternative, feasible futures, and hence increase the chance of arriving at the preferred (selected) future state. Foresight is not done by a small group of experts or academics but involves a number of different groups of actors concerned with the issuesParticipatory at stake. The results are disseminated among a large audience from which feedback is actively sought. Foresight provides an approach that captures realities in their totality withMultidisciplinary all the variables influencing them, regardless of the type (quantitative and qualitative).
  • 41. Obiettivi di ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu foresightEuropean Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN): mapping 50 foresight exercises
  • 42. Output e impatti ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu IMPATTI A BREVE IMPATTI A LUNGO OUTPUT TERMINE TERMINE• Report • Creazione di reti di • Miglioramento del• Elenco di tecnologie stakeholder processo per prendere importanti • Supporto alle decisioni decisioni • Condivizsione del • Capire e formare il• Priorita commitment per futuro• Roadmap implementare decisioni • Aumento della credibilità• Piani di azioni • Miglioramento del e accettabilità delle decisioni• Visioni di futuri processo per prendere desiderati decisioni • Riconfigurazione del • trasparenza sistema• Supporto nella definizione della • legittimità • Creazione di una capacità per foresight strategia/politica continuativa
  • 43. Il processo ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu di foresight 1 Feasibility assessment Landscape Policy cycle Political support 2 Scoping and design Major design Obtaining resources Setting-up Designing the decisions methodologyDefining the focus Costs Information gathering Methodological frameworkSetting the objectives Funding Organisation design Process:Defining the users, Skills and competences Project team definition Diagnosisoutcomes, scope, approach Steering Committee def. PrognosisSetting the time horizon Communication strategy PrescriptionSetting the timeframe Implementation plan Foresight methods 3 Implementation Time Cost/Resources Quality/Scope 4 Follow up Dissemination Evaluation Activity plan
  • 44. ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.euStrategic Technology Roadmapping
  • 45. Outline of ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Presentation What are technology roadmaps? How do I make one? What would I do if I had one? Ways to get started: Explorer to custom technology roadmapping Some project examples
  • 46. What is a Technology ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Roadmap?  The analogy with an actual road map is still the best one• A road map sets out the landscape• It shows us a number of different paths we can take depending on the starting point• Too many paths for any one person or company to take simultaneously• We must make a choice depending on where we want to go and our objectives• The pathway we end up choosing will depend on a number of external and internal considerations• Considerations such as: the traffic the enabling technology the weather
  • 47. Where You Want to Go Will Affect the Best Route ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu• There may be multiple pathways to get to the same or very similar destinations• Some pathways may be shorter or better than others• Personal, business or external considerations will affect the choice
  • 48. Monitor Progress and Events to ………………………………………………………………………………………. Decide if the Pathway www.cebbis.eu Remains Correct• Monitoring everything is neither useful or possible… • …But monitoring progress along the route and potential events is advisable • Knowing what to monitor and the signs to look for becomes a key capability • Knowing……….  What the showstoppers are!  When a change in technology is required  How to resolve conflicting signs
  • 49. Technology Roadmaps Are Not ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Conceptually Different Technology roadmaps should set out the landscape: the status and direction of an opportunity, an application or a technology Time is the major axis and key uncertainty: roadmaps can no more predict the future than crystal balls, but they can set out the possibilities The industry-level roadmap shows the possible paths that individual organizations (as well as their products, services and technologies) might take in developing the opportunity A company pathway sets out what an organization is going to do Now 2 Years 5 Years Product/Service A B C • Milestones help plot the pathway and are used to measure progress Functional Requirements A B C Technologies 1 2 3 4 Pathway Milestone
  • 50. …In Reality, Roadmaps Can Take ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Many Different Forms  Some of the most well-known technology roadmaps are the result of widespread industry consensus  The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors sets out major device-level functional requirements, the technology options and roadblocks  The ITRS is designed to keep Moore’s law on track and is not geared to specific user applications and markets  These types of roadmaps are particularly designed with milestone technology planning in mind. Technology TimeFunctionalityor metric Source: ITRS Unknown solutions: roadblocks
  • 51. We Focus on Strategic Technology ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Roadmaps The word “strategic” is frequently used: what do we mean by it here? We mean that the roadmap is more than just about technology Industry-Level Roadmap Development The roadmap must outline the Now 2 Years 5 Years products and services, within the Business Need Competition Market opportunity, that businesses or Considerations consumers would actually buy Products/Services A B C It must relate product and services to functional requirements and/or Features/Functions A B C technologies It must describe key business Technologies 1 2 3 4 considerations that help us decide what is the right pathway
  • 52. First Create a Profile of ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu the Opportunity First and foremost, creating a technology roadmap requires industry research to describe the opportunity:  What is market need and the likely evolution of products and services?  What are the enabling technologies, and how might they evolve?  What are the critical success factors and other business considerations?  What are the key uncertainties? In project work, we typically use a standard profile template Where possible, industry interviews should help gauge the product/service evolution and technology hurdles. ANALYSIS OPPORTUNITY Business Attractiveness Key Success Factors DESCRIPTION Potential revenue Business modelNeed Profitability Alliances/partnersProducts/services Competition Level of service requiredMarkets Regulations TechnologyValue chain Entry barriers Channels R&D requirements Manufacturing Risk Marketing
  • 53. From Profile to ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Technology Roadmap  Conceptually, the various elements of the profile become the major inputs to the roadmap  In reality, creating the roadmap may require further research about product, market and technology progression and timing  Creating a timeline helps ensure products do not occur before the enabling technologies are ready!!! Products/Services & Functions Products/ Services 1 Products/ Services 2 Products/Services A B C A B C Industry-Level Roadmap Development Necessary Now 2 Years 5 Years Features/Functions Business Need Competition Market 1..…….Opportunity 2.…….. 3. …. Considerations Profile Products/Services A B C Features/Functions Technologies & A B C Business Considerations Technologies 1 2 3 4 Technologies 1..….. 2..….. 3..…. Business Considerations 1..….. 2..….. 3. ….
  • 54. Example Roadmap ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu  Roadmap for a Japanese multinational electronics company  Accompanying tables describe the products, services, functions, technologies and business considerations Industry Roadmap Now N-1 1 Yr 1-3 3 Yrs 3-5 5 Yrs 5-7 7 Yrs 7- Business B1 B3 B5 B48 B50 B52 B54 B56 B57Considerations B2 B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55 B6 B11 Products/ B7 B9 B62 B64 B67 B12 B15 B16 Services B8 B60 B10 B17 B75 B77 B58 B59 B61 B63 B66 B69 B71 B74 B68 B14 B70 B72 B96 B101 B105 B27 Function B82 B85 B92 B94 B97 B79 B83 B89 B19 B95 B22 B86 B21 B18 B90 B93 B20 B99 B103 B80 B87 B106 B100 B104 B84 B91 B42 Technologies B108 B32 B36 B88 B44 B40 B28 B33 B110 B112 B45 B113 B41 B116 B117 B29 B34 B37 B23 B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B115 B39
  • 55. From Industry Roadmap ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu to Company Pathway  First and foremost, industry roadmaps set out multiple pathways and options  Just like a travel road map, they make us confront the decisions that need to be taken to move forward: to get from A to B  When creating a company-specific roadmap or pathway, the business considerations set out what we need to consider to make the decision  Business consideration examples might include:  A missing core competence  A market uncertainty  A competitive threat or critical success factor • The company pathway and Company Roadmap (Pathway) milestones chart the company’s Now 2 Years 5 Years course • Signposts are set up to make This way This wayBusiness Need Competition No Yes Market No YesConsiderations sure we are on track and don’t need to change courseProduct/Servic A B Ce Pathway • Programs like SRIC-BI’sFunctional Explorer can help with signpostRequirements A B C  Milestone monitoring This way  Signpost NoTechnologies 1 2 3 4 Yes
  • 56. Roadmap Development ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Recap Industry Roadmap Now N-1 1 Yr 1-3 3 Yrs 3-5 5 Yrs 5-7 7 Yrs 7-  Industry Roadmaps Business B1 B3 B5 B48 B50 B52 B54 B56 B57 • Set out key business considerations,Considerations B2 B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55 B6 B11 Products/ B62 B64 B67 B12 B15 products/services, functions, and technologies for a B7 B9 B16 Services B8 B60 B10 B17 B75 B77 B58 B59 B61 B63 B66 B69 B71 B74 B68 B14 B70 B72 Function B79 B82 B83 B85 B86 B89 B92 B19 B94 B95 B96 B97 B99 B101 B105 B21 B22 B27 potential opportunity for commercialization B80 B18 B90 B93 B20 B103 B106 B87 B100 B104 • Provide a basis for selected strategy (path) B84 B91 B42 Technologies B108 B32 B36 B88 B44 B40 B28 B33 B110 B112 B45 B113 B41 B116 B117 B29 B34 B37 B23 B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B115 B39  Company Path Company Path Business Now B1 B3 N-1 B5 B48 1 Yr B50 B52 B54 1-3 B56 B57 3 Yrs 3-5 5 Yrs 5-7 7 Yrs 7- • Selected strategy elements--business considerations, products/services, functions, and technologies over Considerations B2 B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55 (Signposts) Products/ B6 B11 time B62 B64 B67 B12 B15 B7 B9 B16 Services B8 B200 B60 B10 B17 B75 B77 B58 B59 B61 B63 B66 B69 B71 B74 B68 B14 B70 B72 • Describes important business considerations and B96 Function B82 B85 B92 B94 B97 B101 B105 B27 B79 B83 B89 B19 B95 B22 B86 B21 B18 B90 B93 B20 B99 B103 B80 B87 B106 products/services, etc. to be created B100 B104 B84 B91 Technologies B108 B32 B36 B88 B40 B42 B44 B28 B33 B110 B112 B45 B41 B116 B117 B29 B34 B37 B113 • Identifies strategic signposts to be monitored B23 B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B115 B39
  • 57. Now I Have a Roadmap, ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu What Do I Do With it? Roadmaps are only a description of the organization’s path; to be useful they must lead to action Describing, selecting and carrying out the action steps is more challenging (and often uncomfortable) than charting a path, but ultimately that is where the value lies A road map analogy again:  A road map helps you chart your journey  An action plan sets out:  Checking the weather before you start  Filling up the car with gas  Putting the snow tires on  Not forgetting to bring: the map, the children, the dog………  Some actions may be more of a priority than others!
  • 58. Action Roadmaps are Essential ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu • Action roadmaps display and describe the basic actions required to execute the pathway (strategy). • Priority (short term) actions are highlighted. • Key monitoring elements and signposts are described Action Roadmap Now 1 Years 3 Years 10 Years 5 Years Business B3 Considerations B1 ple (signposts) B2 Exam B4 P1 Products/Services P3 P2 P4 P5 Company Roadmap Functions/ T1 T4 Now 2 Years 5 Years Thi w s ay Thi w s ay Technologies & T2 T5Business T7 No No Need Competition Market Other Capabilities T3 Yes YesConsiderations T6Product/Service A B C PathwayFunctionalRequirements A B C Continuous monitoring or improvement Priority Actions Milestone Leads to next generation B1: Verify need and initial target Thi w s ay NoTechnologies 1 2 3 4 Yes Signpost B2: Monitor key threats P1: Design and bundle initial product/service P2: Test customer acceptance
  • 59. Roadmapping Uses: A Focus on Business Strategy and ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Product/Service Development• The ultimate aim of developing roadmaps and action plans will vary by company and project, but two obvious different cases exist: 1. Using the roadmap principally for business strategy, entry options and product/service development 2. Using the roadmap for developing a technology strategy or portfolio• In the first case, the potential product/service pathways are critical, as is a close examination of the business considerations — Business considerations will capture threats from competition and key business challenges, organizational issues, or consumer acceptance — Actions might be: the need to test consumer acceptance of products; alliance or acquisition analysis; the need to develop internal capabilities such as a service organization — In this example, the technologies may be readily acquired, or the necessary technology alliances can be easily formed
  • 60. Roadmapping Uses: Selecting www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. a Technology Portfolio  For technology-oriented organizations (government labs, corporate research departments), the focus for roadmaps and actions may be on developing future technology concepts and other capabilities  Multiple product/service roadmaps can serve as the basis for developing a technology portfolio  Actions may relate to filling key capabilities, licensing and R&D partnering Technology Concept Analysis and Selection Multiple Product/Service Roadmaps Products & Product b Product d Product a Product c Product e Service b Service d Service a Service c Service e Product f Service f Industry Level Roadmap 1 Services Industry Level Roadmap 2 Industry Level Roadmap 3 Techs & Now 5 Roadmap 4 Years Industry LevelYears 10 Industry Level Roadmap10 Years Now 5 Years 5 Other capabilities Industry Level Roadmap 6Years Now 5 Years 10Products/Services A Now B 5 Years C 10 Years Technology a X X X Products/Services A Now B 5 Years C 10 Years Products/Services A Now B 5 YearsC 10 Years Products/Services A B C Technology b X XFeatures/Functions Products/Services A BA BC C Features/Functions Products/Services A BA BC C Technology c X X X X X X X Features/Functions A B C Features/Functions A B C Features/Functions 1 2 A 3 B 4 C Technology e X X X X X XTechnologies Features/Functions 1 2 A 3 B4 C Technologies 1 2 3 4 Technologies Technologies 1 Distribution Channels 3 2 4Other Capabilities Technologies 1 Distribution Channels 3 Customer2acceptance 4 Other Capabilities 1Distribution Channels 3 Capability 1 X X Technologies Customer 2 assessment system acceptance 4 Other Capabilities Distribution Channels assessment system Customer acceptance Other Capabilities assessment Channels Distribution system Customer acceptance Capability 2 X X X X X X X Other Capabilities Distribution Channels assessment system Customer acceptance Other Capabilities assessment system Customer acceptance Capability 3 X X X X X X assessment system Capability 4 X X X X X X X
  • 61. Roadmap Development Recap ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu  Industry Roadmaps Industry Roadmap BusinessConsiderations Now B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B47 N-1 B48 B49 1 Yr B50 B51 B53 B52 B54 B56 B55 1-3 B57 3 Yrs 3-5 5 Yrs 5-7 7 Yrs 7- • Set out key business considerations, Products/ B6 B7 B11 B9 B62 B64 B67 B12 B15 B16 products/services, functions, and technologies for a potential opportunity for commercialization Services B8 B60 B10 B17 B75 B77 B58 B59 B61 B63 B66 B69 B71 B74 B68 B14 B70 B72 B96 • Provide a basis for selected strategy (path) B101 B105 B27 Function B82 B85 B92 B94 B97 B79 B83 B89 B19 B95 B22 B86 B21 B18 B90 B93 B20 B99 B103 B80 B87 B106 B100 B104 B84 B91 B42 Technologies B108 B32 B36 B88 B44 B40 B28 B33 B110 B112 B45 B113 B41 B116 B117 B29 B34 B37 B23 B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B115  Company Path B39 Company Path Business Now N-1 1 Yr 1-3 3 Yrs 3-5 5 Yrs 5-7 7 Yrs 7- • Selected strategy elements--business considerations, products/services, functions, and technologies over B1 B3 B5 B48 B50 B52 B54 B56 B57 Considerations B2 B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55 (Signposts) Products/ time B6 B11 B62 B64 B67 B12 B15 B7 B9 B16 Services B8 B200 B60 B10 B17 B75 B77 B58 B59 B61 B63 B66 B69 B71 B74 B68 B14 B70 B72 Function B79 B82 B83 B85 B86 B89 B92 B19 B94 B95 B96 B97 B99 B101 B21 B105 B22 B27 • Describes important business considerations and products/services, etc. to be created B80 B18 B87 B90 B93 B20 B103 B106 B100 B104 B84 B91 Technologies B108 B32 B36 B88 B40 B42 B44 B28 B33 B110 B112 B45 B116 B117 • Identifies strategic signposts to be monitored B29 B34 B37 B113 B41 B23 B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B115 B39 Actions  Actions • Displays and describes required actions to execute Now 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Business Z1 Z4 Company Paths Considerations Z2 (Signposts) Z3 Products/ Z6 Services Z5 Z7 Z9 Z10 • Highlights priority actions Z8 Functions/ Z11 Z15 Technologies Z14 Z16 Z18 Z12 Z13 Z17
  • 62. What Does a Custom Roadmap Mean in the ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Context of Explorer?• Explorer is a syndicated program, with a wide and diverse client base• The Explorer charts of technology commercialization are designed for breadth — Explorer highlights the commercial implications, from technology development, for many products, industries and markets — Technology maps often combine many different enabling technologies• By contrast, what we have discussed so far is a custom roadmap, created with an individual organization in mind• However, Explorer’s research and technology maps are a good basis from which to develop a customized roadmap — To aid in developing the opportunity profiles — To identify critical enabling technologies and inhibitors — To assist with player profiling that is often an important feature of such projects — To identify important areas to monitor
  • 63. Explorer is a Valuable Source To Create the Initial ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Opportunity Profiles Customized Strategic Technology Roadmaps Monitoring Now 2 Years 5 Years Business Considerations Need Competition This way No Yes Market This way No Yes System Product/ A B C Service Functional Requirements A B COpportunity Technologies 1 2 3 4 Profiles Milestones Signposts Explorer’s Charts of Commercialization
  • 64. ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.euRoadmapping Example: CIGS Solar Cells
  • 65. Project Outline: CIGS Solar Cells ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu The client, a government-funded laboratory, wanted to develop its strategy for a particular type of solar cell: copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) CIGS has the highest efficiency of any current thin-film solar cell The aims of the project were several fold:  Profile the industry ■ Understand the players, their technological approaches and business plans ■ Assess strengths of the patents of leading players (SRI support) ■ Develop an estimate of CIGS production capacity over 10 years  Assess the major cost contributions for CIGS solar cell production  Develop an industry roadmap showing major approaches, and identify a number of strategic choices (pathways)
  • 66. Technology Map for Photovoltaics: a Useful Starting Point ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu PHOTOVOLTAICS INDUSTRY ROADMAP: FOCUS ON CIGS Category 2006 2010 2015 Rising Energy Demand Regional and National Regional and National Rising Energy Demand Business And Costs Energy Policies Energy Policies Energy Storage Energy Storage And CostsConsiderations Polysilicon Supply Polysilicon Supply Recycling Recycling (CDP) Semiconductor Industry Semiconductor Industry Standards Standards Government and State Government and State Rural Area Rural Area Nanotechnology Nanotechnology Areas to Subsidies and Incentives Subsidies and Incentives Financing Advances in Manufacturing Financing Advances in Manufacturing Monitor Renewable Energy Renewable Energy China Organic Solar Cells Technologies China Organic Solar Cells Technologies Residential and Commercial Residential and Commercial BIPV BIPV Building Rooftops Building Rooftops Crystalline Cathodic Telecommunications Cathodic CPV Systems Silicon Cells Telecommunications Protection CPV Systems Protection and Modules Water Pumps Water Pumps Solar Parks Solar Parks Road Signs Road Signs Marine Buoys Marine Buoys Rural Electrification Rural Electrification Battery Rechargers Textiles Textiles • CIGS is a thin-film solar cell Thin Film Battery Rechargers and Fabrics MEMS/Sensors Residential and Commercial Residential and Commercial and Fabrics MEMS/Sensors Semiconductor Building Rooftops Building Rooftops Products Cells and Off-Grid Industrial and Off-Grid Industrial and Consumer Consumer /Service Modules Remote Power Electronics Remote Power Electronics Opportunities • The technology implicates a number of CPV Systems CPV Systems Satellites and Spacecraft Satellites and Spacecraft BIPV BIPV Solar Parks Solar Parks enabling technologies Battery Rechargers MEMS/Sensors – Vacuum deposition Battery Rechargers MEMS/Sensors Organic and Textiles and Fabrics BIPV Textiles and Fabrics BIPV Nano-Based – Low cost nanoparticle synthesis and Cells and Remote Power Remote Power Modules Consumer Electronics Consumer Electronics Thin-Film Semiconductors Thin-Film Semiconductors Vacuum Dye-Sensitized Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells Solar Cells Flexible Flexible Substrates Substrates Polymer Polymer Solar Cells Solar Cells wet chemical deposition Crystalline Silicon Wafers Vacuum Crystalline Silicon Wafers Deposition – Roll-to-roll processing Deposition Thin-Film x-Si Thin-Film x-Si QD QD Polymer Transparent Polymer Transparent Ribbon/Sheet Ribbon/Sheet III-V III-V Nonvacuum Processes Solar Cells Nonvacuum Processes Solar Cells Technologies Electrodes Electrodes Solar Cells Solar Cells Thermo-PV Thermo-PV – Rigid and flexible substrates Encapsulants Encapsulants Nanoparticle Manufacture Nanoparticle Manufacture Roll-Roll Processing Roll-Roll Processing Clothing Clothing Grid-Connected Grid-Connected Space Space Markets Military Military Automotive Automotive – Encapsulation Off-Grid and Industrial and Remote Power Off-Grid and Industrial and Remote Power Consumer Electronics Consumer Electronics Source: SRIC-BI CIGS = Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide
  • 67. Additional Research Created a More In-Depth Profile and Then www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Client-Focused Industry Roadmap • The industry roadmaps contains the major approaches CIGS Industry Roadmap • It forms the basis for selecting a pathway Category 2006 2010 2015 PHOTOVOLTAICS INDUSTRY ROADMAP: FOCUS ON CIGS Textiles Textiles Category 2006 2010 2015 Battery Rechargers Battery Rechargers Regional and National Thin Film Residential and Commercial Residential and Commercial and Fabrics and Fabrics MEMS/Sensors MEMS/Sensors Rising Energy Demand Rising Energy Demand Regional and National Business And Costs And Costs Energy Policies Energy Policies Energy Storage Energy Storage Semiconductor Building Rooftops Building RooftopsConsiderations Polysilicon Supply Polysilicon Supply Recycling Recycling Products Cells and Off-Grid Industrial and Consumer (CDP) Semiconductor Industry Semiconductor Industry Off-Grid Industrial and Consumer Standards Standards /Service Modules Remote Power Electronics Government and State Rural Area Nanotechnology Remote Power Electronics Government and State Rural Area Nanotechnology Areas to Subsidies and Incentives Subsidies and Incentives Financing Advances in Manufacturing Financing Advances in Manufacturing Opportunities Monitor Renewable Energy Renewable Energy China Organic Solar Cells CPV Systems CPV Systems Technologies China Organic Solar Cells Technologies Satellites and Spacecraft Satellites and Spacecraft Residential and Commercial Residential and Commercial BIPV BIPV BIPV BIPV Building Rooftops Building Rooftops Crystalline Cathodic Cathodic Silicon Cells Telecommunications Telecommunications Protection Protection CPV Systems CPV Systems Solar Parks Solar Parks and Modules Water Pumps Water Pumps Solar Parks Solar Parks Road Signs Road Signs Marine Buoys Marine Buoys Rural Electrification Rural Electrification Textiles Textiles Battery Rechargers Battery Rechargers Thin Film Residential and Commercial Residential and Commercial and Fabrics and Fabrics MEMS/Sensors MEMS/Sensors Semiconductor Building Rooftops Building Rooftops Vacuum Vacuum Electrodeposition Electrodeposition Products Cells and Modules Off-Grid Industrial and Off-Grid Industrial and Consumer Consumer Deposition Deposition /Service Remote Power Remote Power Electronics Electronics Opportunities CPV Systems Printing Printing CPV Systems Satellites and Spacecraft Satellites and Spacecraft BIPV Sputtering Sputtering BIPV Solar Parks Roll-Roll Processing Roll-Roll Processing Solar Parks CIGS Technology Roll-to-Roll Module Roll-to-Roll Module Roll-to-Roll Roll-to-Roll Battery Rechargers Battery Rechargers MEMS/Sensors MEMS/Sensors Encapsulation Encapsulation Encapsulation Encapsulation BIPV BIPV Organic and Textiles and Fabrics BIPV Textiles and Fabrics BIPV Nano-Based Cells and Remote Power Remote Power Nanoparticle Manufacture Nanoparticle Manufacture Low-Temp Nanoparticle Manufacture Low-Temp Nanoparticle Manufacture Modules Consumer Electronics Consumer Electronics Thin-Film Semiconductors Thin-Film Semiconductors Dye-Sensitized Dye-Sensitized Flexible Flexible Polymer Polymer Indium recycling Indium recycling High Indium Efficiency High Indium Efficiency Vacuum Solar Cells Solar Cells Substrates Substrates Solar Cells Solar Cells Crystalline Silicon Wafers Crystalline Silicon Wafers Vacuum Deposition Deposition Thin-Film x-Si Glass Glass Thin-Film x-Si QD Polymer Transparent Polymer Transparent Ribbon/Sheet QD Nonvacuum Processes Solar Cells Metal Foil Metal Foil Electrodes Ribbon/Sheet III-V III-V Nonvacuum Processes Solar Cells Technologies Electrodes Large-area Solar Cells Solar Cells Thermo-PV Thermo-PV Polyimide Large-area Encapsulants Polyimide Polyimide Encapsulants Nanoparticle Manufacture Nanoparticle Manufacture Roll-Roll Processing Roll-Roll Processing Polyimide Clothing Clothing Grid-Connected Grid-Connected Space Space Automotive Automotive Military Military Markets Clothing Clothing Off-Grid and Industrial and Remote Power Off-Grid and Industrial and Remote Power Consumer Electronics Consumer Electronics Grid-Connected Grid-Connected Space Space Source: SRIC-BI Automotive Automotive Military Military Markets Off-Grid and Industrial and Remote Power Off-Grid and Industrial and Remote Power Consumer Electronics Consumer Electronics Source: SRIC-BI
  • 68. Market Development and ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Costing Patent analysis can highlight the pros and cons of different technology approaches and the likely riskA business considerationwould be how CIGS is likely tofare on a cost basis, and whatapproaches can lead to Player profiles highlight theimprovements in cost technology state of the art and investment plans
  • 69. Different Pathways ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Were Developed 2006 2010 2015 Vacuum Vacuum Electrodeposition In this project, three distinct technology pathways were charted Electrodeposition Deposition Deposition Printing Printing Sputtering Sputtering Roll-Roll Processing Roll-Roll Processing Category 2006 2010 2015 Roll-to-Roll Module Roll-to-Roll Module Roll-to-Roll Roll-to-Roll Encapsulation Pathway 1 Encapsulation Encapsulation BIPV Encapsulation BIPV Textiles Textiles Battery Rechargers Battery Rechargers Nanoparticle Manufacture Low-Temp Nanoparticle Manufacture Thin Film Residential and Commercial Residential and Commercial and Fabrics and Fabrics MEMS/Sensors MEMS/Sensors Nanoparticle Manufacture Low-Temp Nanoparticle Manufacture Semiconductor Building Rooftops Building Rooftops Products Cells and Off-Grid Industrial and Consumer Indium recycling Indium recycling High Indium Efficiency High Indium Efficiency Off-Grid Industrial and Consumer /Service Modules Remote Power Electronics Glass Remote Power Electronics GlassOpportunities Metal Foil Metal Foil CPV Systems Large-area Large-area CPV Systems Polyimide Polyimide Polyimide Polyimide Satellites and Spacecraft Satellites and Spacecraft BIPV BIPV Solar Parks Solar Parks 2006 2010 2015 Vacuum Vacuum Electrodeposition Electrodeposition Deposition Deposition Printing Printing Vacuum Vacuum Electrodeposition Electrodeposition Sputtering Sputtering Deposition Deposition Roll-Roll Processing Roll-Roll Processing Printing Printing Sputtering Sputtering Roll-to-Roll Module Roll-to-Roll Module Roll-to-Roll Roll-to-Roll Encapsulation Encapsulation Roll-Roll Processing Roll-Roll Processing Encapsulation Encapsulation BIPV BIPV CIGS Technology Encapsulation Roll-to-Roll Module Roll-to-Roll Module Roll-to-Roll Roll-to-Roll Pathway 2 Nanoparticle Manufacture Nanoparticle Manufacture Low-Temp Nanoparticle Manufacture Low-Temp Nanoparticle Manufacture Encapsulation Encapsulation BIPV Encapsulation BIPV Indium recycling Indium recycling High Indium Efficiency High Indium Efficiency Nanoparticle Manufacture Nanoparticle Manufacture Low-Temp Nanoparticle Manufacture Low-Temp Nanoparticle Manufacture Glass Glass Metal Foil Metal Foil Indium recycling Indium recycling High Indium Efficiency High Indium Efficiency Large-area Large-area Polyimide Polyimide Glass Glass Polyimide Polyimide Metal Foil Metal Foil Large-area Large-area 2006 2010 2015 Polyimide Polyimide Polyimide Polyimide Vacuum Vacuum Electrodeposition Electrodeposition Deposition Deposition Clothing Clothing Printing Printing Grid-Connected Grid-Connected Space Space Sputtering Sputtering Automotive Automotive Military Roll-Roll Processing Roll-Roll Processing Markets Military Roll-to-Roll Module Roll-to-Roll Module Roll-to-Roll Pathway 3 Encapsulation Encapsulation Roll-to-Roll Off-Grid and Industrial and Remote Power Off-Grid and Industrial and Remote Power Consumer Electronics Consumer Electronics Encapsulation BIPV Encapsulation BIPV Source: SRIC-BI Nanoparticle Manufacture Nanoparticle Manufacture Low-Temp Nanoparticle Manufacture Low-Temp Nanoparticle Manufacture Indium recycling Indium recycling High Indium Efficiency High Indium Efficiency Glass Glass • The pathways reflected different technology choices and their Metal Foil Metal Foil Large-area Large-area Polyimide Polyimide Polyimide Polyimide migration over time
  • 70. Selection of Strategic Options ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Pathway Options Pathway 2006 2010 2015 Assessment Vacuum Vacuum Electrodeposition Electrodeposition Deposition Deposition Printing Printing Sputtering Sputtering Xxx xx Roll - Processing Roll - Roll Processing Roll xxxx xxxxx x Roll- - Module Roll- - toRoll Module toRoll Roll- - toRoll Roll- - toRoll xxxx xxxxx • In this project, each of the strategic options, orEncapsulationEncapsulation x Encapsulation Encapsulation BIPV BIPV xxxx xxxxx x Nanoparticle Manufacture Nanoparticle Manufacture Low - Temp Nanoparticle Low - Temp Nanoparticle Manufacture Manufacture xxxx xxxxx x xxxx xxxxx Glass Glass Indium recycling Indium recycling Metal Foil Metal Foil High Indium Efficiency High Indium Efficiency xxxx xx pathway options, was accompanied by the following: Large - area Large -area Polyimide Polyimide Polyimide Polyimide Vacuum Vacuum 2006 2010 Electrodeposition Electrodeposition 2015 — A description of the strategic focus Deposition Deposition — Associated risk profile Printing Printing Sputtering Xxx Sputtering xx Roll- Processing Roll- Roll Processing Roll xxxx xxxxx x Roll - - Module Roll - - toRoll Module to Roll Roll- - toRoll Roll- - toRoll xxxx xxxxxEncapsulation x xxxx xxxxxEncapsulation — Short and medium term R&D goals Encapsulation Encapsulation BIPV BIPV x Nanoparticle Manufacture Nanoparticle Manufacture Low - Temp Nanoparticle Low - Temp Nanoparticle Manufacture Manufacture xxxx xxxxx x xxxx xxxxx Indium recycling Indium recycling High Indium Efficiency High Indium Efficiency xxxx xx — Potential alliance partners Glass Glass Metal Foil Metal Foil Large - area Large -area Polyimide Polyimide Polyimide Polyimide 2006 2010 2015 — Areas to monitor Vacuum Vacuum Electrodeposition Electrodeposition Deposition Deposition Xxx xx Printing Printing xxxx xxxxx x Sputtering Sputtering xxxx xxxxx Roll- Processing Roll- Roll Processing x xxxx xxxxx Roll xEncapsulationEncapsulation Roll - - Module Roll - - toRoll Module to Roll Encapsulation Roll- - toRoll Roll- - toRoll BIPV xxxx xxxxx Encapsulation BIPV x xxxx xxxxx Nanoparticle Manufacture Nanoparticle Manufacture Low - Temp Nanoparticle Low - Temp Nanoparticle Manufacture Manufacture xxxx xx Indium recycling Indium recycling High Indium Efficiency High Indium Efficiency Glass Glass Metal Foil Metal Foil Large - area Large -area Polyimide Polyimide Polyimide Polyimide
  • 71. ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.euRoadmapping Example: Waste Heat Recovery
  • 72. Project Outline: Automotive Waste ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Heat Recovery “For a typical car with an internal combustion engine, around 70% to 80% of energy produced by the engine is wasted as heat…” The client, an automotive company, wanted to develop an industry roadmap and strategy (pathway) for waste heat recovery (e.g. exhaust) The client wanted to better understand the competitive environment and state-of-the- art, and commissioned SRIC-BI to: • Study activities and approaches to heat-recovery technologies • Understand the current industry view of the commercialization of heat-recovery systems • Develop an industry-level roadmap that linked product development with functional needs and enabling technologies.
  • 73. Patent Analysis: Players and Technology ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Approaches Web and Literature Review. Conducting a literature search to build up a picture of key trends, developments; players active in the technology area; identification of industry experts Qualitative Patent Search. Conducting a search of patents to identify technologies and players active in the area of heat recovery Quantitative Analysis of Papers and Patents. To provide an indication of the relative activity within each technology approach.
  • 74. Understand the ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Competition Player profiles can help in terms of understanding technology and market development as an input to the roadmap
  • 75. Understanding ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Industry Viewpoints Selected industry experts and companies can then be short listed for interview to gain further inputs to the roadmap development
  • 76. Example Products Section of Industry Roadmap ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Thermoelectric Thermo-fluid Fuel Reforming Heat Storage 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018Vehicles P5 P9 2nd Generation 2000cc Sedans with Thermoelectric Commercial Products 15% Improvement in Fuel Economy Product Introduction P2 Toyota Prius P4 (Heat Storage) [1] 1st Generation P3 Thermoelectric modules in vehicle P8 Toyota Estima Rankine system in vehicle [1] (Heat Recovery) [1] P6 Full Size Truck (Thermoelectric) P1 BMW LHB P5 2000cc Sedans withSystems 15% Improvement in Fuel Economy P10 LHB P22 P11 Auto Rankine TEG Modules System P23 P12 Waste Heat Heat Regeneration System Storage P18 Commercial TEG Modules [A]
  • 77. Technologies and Functionalities ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Existing 2010 2015 2018>Thermoelectric Module and System TechnologiesPrototype Modules TT6 TT14 TT1 TT11 TT12 TE Systems TE Systems BSST TE Systems TE Systems +100W Multi-kW Range +250W Approx kW range TT2 General Motors TT7 TT3 Segmented Module IHI Corp. Designs TT8 TT4 Interfaces: NEDO Improvement in Durability TT13 TT14 TT5 Hi-Z Advanced Module TT9 Designs System Modeling System TT10 TE Systems Subsystem Technologies Multi-kW RangeThermoelectric Materials TechnologiesExisting materials Next-generation materials [1] Nanoscale materials TT15 TT18 Conventional Nanoscale BiTe Bulk BiTe TT20 TT21 TT22 TT23 TAGS Clathrates Skutterudites Oxides TT16 TT19 Conventional Nanoscale PbTe Bulk PbTe TT17 Other Bulk Materials TT24 TT21 High Power Density Materials Clathrates
  • 78. Technology Roadmapping Summary………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Industry-Level Roadmap Development Industry roadmaps Now 2 Years 5 Years Business Need Competition Market set out the landscape, Considerations showing the options Products/Services A B C or paths that can be Features/Functions A B C taken Technologies 1 2 3 4 Company Roadmap (Pathway) The pathway sets Now 2 Years Thi w s ay Thi w s ay 5 Years Business Need Competition No Yes Market No Yes out the route to be Considerations taken, and highlights Product/Service A B C Pathway the things that need to Functional be monitored to stay Requirements A B C Milestone Thi w s ay on course Technologies 1 2 3 4 No Yes Signpost Without action and innovation you won’t get anywhere!
  • 79. What is a Value Proposition? ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.euIMPORTANT CUSTOMER N EEDS Quantitative Value Proposition A PPROACH Important Full Business Competitive Plan B ENEFITS/ Approaches Customer / Market Needs COSTS Unique Approach C OMPETITION/ ALTERNATIVES Quantitative Client Benefits
  • 80. What Initial Value ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Propositions Look LikenA bc Typical from technical folksN C ab What managers want to see at first
  • 81. ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu

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