Come progettare l’evoluzione            tecnologica dell’impresa            Stephen Taylor – Dirigente, Servizio Trasferim...
Dall’idea al mercato                     ……………………………………………………………………………………….    www.cebbis.eu          RICERCA             ...
SRI Cinque discipline                      ……………………………………………………………………………………….                www.cebbis.eu                ...
……………………………………………………………………………………….   www.cebbis.euBusiness Intelligence
Business                  ……………………………………………………………………………………….       www.cebbis.eu                     IntelligenceWikipedia...
Business                          ……………………………………………………………………………………….        www.cebbis.eu                             Inte...
Business               ……………………………………………………………………………………….   www.cebbis.eu                 IntelligenceUn esempio di collab...
SBI e SRI                                   ……………………………………………………………………………………….                       www.cebbis.eu        ...
SRI International: la                                           ……………………………………………………………………………………….                        ...
Alcuni spin off                    ……………………………………………………………………………………….   www.cebbis.eu                      di SRI Internat...
Explorer: le                     ……………………………………………………………………………………….          www.cebbis.eu                       tecnologi...
Le schede di                                                       ……………………………………………………………………………………….                     ...
Capire la……………………………………………………………………………………….   www.cebbis.eu  tecnologia
Capire i parametri di                                       sviluppo commerciale                                     ……………...
Capire l’impatto potenziale                              ……………………………………………………………………………………….                               ...
Capire le implicazioni della                                ……………………………………………………………………………………….                            ...
Le opportunità                                          ……………………………………………………………………………………….                                ...
Catene del valore                          ……………………………………………………………………………………….                                          www...
Scan: Open                   ……………………………………………………………………………………….      www.cebbis.eu                     Intelligence Insig...
Most Systems Target Key                      External Information                    ………………………………………………………………………………………. ww...
Most Businesses Excel In                        Targeted Intelligence                       ………………………………………………………………………………...
Scanning:                        ……………………………………………………………………………………….        www.cebbis.eu                          Open Int...
Scan is an Open                             ……………………………………………………………………………………….                      www.cebbis.eu         ...
The Process            ……………………………………………………………………………………….              www.cebbis.eu              Of Scanning             ...
Scan™ Abstract                     ……………………………………………………………………………………….     www.cebbis.eu                       OriginsWe l...
Finding Clusters Of                   ……………………………………………………………………………………….           www.cebbis.eu                     Relat...
Clustering                       ……………………………………………………………………………………….               www.cebbis.eu                          C...
Prioritizing                  ……………………………………………………………………………………….       www.cebbis.eu                    Clusters       Req...
Benefits Of                           ……………………………………………………………………………………….                              www.cebbis.eu       ...
Scan                 ……………………………………………………………………………………….   www.cebbis.euInsight about the defining forces of the business ...
Emerging                  ……………………………………………………………………………………….            www.cebbis.eu                    Technologies:    ...
……………………………………………………………………………………….   www.cebbis.eu Establishing Your OwnOpen Intelligence Process
Key Success Factors For www.cebbis.eu                 ……………………………………………………………………………………….                  Open Intelligenc...
Key Success Factors For www.cebbis.eu                       ……………………………………………………………………………………….                        Open...
……………………………………………………………………………………….   www.cebbis.euForesight
Foresight                  ……………………………………………………………………………………….     www.cebbis.euForesight is the application of a systemati...
Business                   ……………………………………………………………………………………….   www.cebbis.eu                     ForesightBusiness Foresi...
Tipologie                  ……………………………………………………………………………………….   www.cebbis.eu                    di foresightFORESIGHT    ...
Foresight       ……………………………………………………………………………………….          www.cebbis.eu                    Politica                 pian...
Foresight -                        ……………………………………………………………………………………….                           www.cebbis.eu             ...
Obiettivi di                             ……………………………………………………………………………………….                 www.cebbis.eu                 ...
Output e impatti                         ……………………………………………………………………………………….               www.cebbis.eu                   ...
Il processo                                  ……………………………………………………………………………………….                           www.cebbis.eu   ...
……………………………………………………………………………………….   www.cebbis.euStrategic Technology    Roadmapping
Outline of              ……………………………………………………………………………………….   www.cebbis.eu               Presentation   What are technolo...
What is a Technology                                  ……………………………………………………………………………………….            www.cebbis.eu         ...
Where You Want to Go                             Will Affect the Best Route                           ……………………………………………………...
Monitor Progress and Events                     to ……………………………………………………………………………………….                        Decide if the...
Technology Roadmaps                         Are Not                         ……………………………………………………………………………………….            ...
…In Reality,                                          Roadmaps Can Take                                        ……………………………...
We Focus on                               Strategic Technology                             …………………………………………………………………………………...
First Create a Profile of                                    ……………………………………………………………………………………….                           ...
From Profile to                                  ……………………………………………………………………………………….                                       ...
Example Roadmap                                             ……………………………………………………………………………………….                            ...
From Industry Roadmap                                     ……………………………………………………………………………………….                              ...
Roadmap Development                                                                                                       ...
Now I Have a Roadmap,                        ……………………………………………………………………………………….                     www.cebbis.eu         ...
Action Roadmaps                                                                                        are Essential      ...
Roadmapping Uses: A Focus on                             Business Strategy and                             ………………………………………...
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013
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Come progettare l'evoluzione tecnologica dell'impresa_Taylor 27.02.2013

  1. 1. Come progettare l’evoluzione tecnologica dell’impresa Stephen Taylor – Dirigente, Servizio Trasferimento Tecnologico AREA Science Park www.cebbis.eu …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………The CEBBIS project is implemented through the Central Europe Programme co-financed by the ERDF
  2. 2. Dall’idea al mercato ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu RICERCA AZIENDA MERCATOsottotitolo presentazione IDEA SVILUPPO PRODOTTO
  3. 3. SRI Cinque discipline ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu dell’InnovazioneCome garantire innovazioni di alto valore X X X X =Importante Creazione Campioni Team Alineamento Valrore peresigenza di di Valore Organizzativo il cliente emercato successo per l’aziendaMirare al valore più alto possibile per il clienteUsare “Best Practices” per innovare spinto damiglioramento continuo
  4. 4. ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.euBusiness Intelligence
  5. 5. Business ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu IntelligenceWikipedia: un insieme di processi aziendali per raccogliere ed analizzare informazioni strategiche. la tecnologia utilizzata per realizzare questi processi, le informazioni ottenute come risultato di questi processi.Questa espressione è stata coniata nel 1958 da Hans Peter Luhn,ricercatore e inventore tedesco, mentre stava lavorando per IBM.
  6. 6. Business ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Intelligence Business Intelligence: raccolta ed elaborazione di dati da parte delle organizzazioni. “I dati raccolti vengono opportunamente elaborati e vengono utilizzati per supportare concretamente - sulla base di dati attuali - le decisioni di chi occupa ruoli direzionali (capire landamento delle performance dellazienda, generare stime previsionali, ipotizzare scenari futuri e future strategie di risposta). In secondo luogo le informazioni possono essere analizzate a differenti livelli di dettaglio e gerarchico per qualsiasi altra funzione aziendale: marketing, commerciale, finanza, personale o altre.” (http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_intelligence) Tool: SBI “Explorer”, mappe tecnologiche di settori innovativi.
  7. 7. Business ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu IntelligenceUn esempio di collaborazione internazionale di AREA:Strategic Business Insights (SBI), uno spin-off di SRI International, formerly Stanford Research Institute: le Technology Map di Explorer
  8. 8. SBI e SRI ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu International SBI SRI InternationalDedicated management- SRI More than 1800 scientists,consulting practice: Worldwide Locations technologists, engineers, andPioneer of scenario planning for futurists worldwidestrategy development More than 100 disciplinesScan: Alerting clients to early Tokyosigns of change More than 1000 active research Seoul and consulting projects at any timeExplorer: Commercial Londonopportunities from over 30 Service to more than 2000 client Menlo companies every yeartechnology areas including Parkelectronics and IT, process and Princeton Outsourcing of R&Dbiotechnologies, energy and Washington, DCmaterialsThe VALS™ typology for consumeracceptance of technology New Technology Spin-Off Companies Firms like Nuance that provide commercial applications for SRI- developed technologies
  9. 9. SRI International: la ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu storia dell’innovazione1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 ERMA Banking HDTV Computer Optical Disk Scenario-Based Prototype Reading Planning CBOT, CME Ink Jet Printing Halofantrine Hand-Held Continuous Speech Falciparum malaria Computer Recognition for treatment marketed Telepresence Surgery Telephone by SmithKline and Transactions A new method of the WHO performing surgery usingMICR Encoding Multimedia computer-mediatedfor Checks Electronic surgical tools that provide i4 Mail improved accuracy and flexibility, Mouse Input Information especially in minimally All Magnetic Device Security invasive procedures, Logic and provide a future technology platform for Hirudin Hypertext remotely performing Small protein that inhibits surgical procedures major blood-clotting, used Pen-Input in the treatment of Computing cardiovascular disease and Modem Acoustic cancer Coupler ARPA net
  10. 10. Alcuni spin off ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu di SRI InternationalSBI - StrategicBusiness Insights
  11. 11. Explorer: le ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu tecnologie monitorateAdvanced Silicon Microelectronics NanoelectronicsBiocatalysis NanomaterialsBiomaterials Novel Ceramic/Metallic MaterialsBiopolymers Optoelectronics/PhotonicsBiosensors Organic ElectronicsConnected Cars Pervasive ComputingConnected Homes PhotovoltaicsEngineering Polymers Polymer-Matrix CompositesFlat-Panel Displays Portable Electronic DevicesFuel Cells Portable PowerGenomics Renewable Energy TechnologiesKnowledge-Based Systems RFID TechnologiesKnowledge-Management Tools RoboticsMembrane Separation Smart MaterialsMEMS/Micromachining Solid-State MicrosensorsMobile Communications User InterfacesNanobiotechnology Virtual Worlds
  12. 12. Le schede di ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Explorer Commercial Development Parameters Opportunities: Applications Synergistic Technologies • Interfaces (Human-Machine, Machine to • Miniature Power Sources Machine, Machine to Environment) • Ubiquitous Embedded Processing • Wireless Networks (Cellular, Bluetooth, • Software Architecture Wi-Fi) • Identification of Nodes Required Resources Demand Factors • Partnering Capabilities • Military and Government • IT Expertise • Industrial/Commercial • Spectrum Licenses • Consumer • Funding for Research and Development 1 2 3 Regulatory Factors 4 General Constraints • Value Capture Opportunities: Business Environment 5 • Privacy • Standards and Interoperability • Security • Storage and Scalability Competing Technologies • Liability • Cost • Current Computing Environment • Human ToolsBuilding Blocks of the ImplicationsTechnology • Growth in GMO-Production Technology • Growth in GMO-Production Technology • Product Formulation Improved by • Application for Nanotechnologies Biopolymers • High-Throughput Screening • Favorable Regulation of Functional Foods Improvements and Nutraceuticals • Progress of Combinatorial Methods • Consumer Preferences Move toward • Advances in Enzymatic and Cell-Free Convenience Foods and Functional and Synthesis Nutraceutical Foods A B New technologies will lead Biopolymers enhance food to novel biopolymers. qualities and production. Implications of Commercialization A+B+C Bioploymer-enabled food processing enhances food formulation and provides a competitive edge in A+C the industry. Biopolymers enhance performance of consumer and industrial products and processes. Players A+C Fine control of biopolymer production through cellular synthesis leads to customizable material features, and GMOs become a key source for biopolymer production. Issues and Uncertainties A+C+D Advanced medical treatments and devices emerge. C Biopolymers gradually replace petroleum-based materials. Enabling Com ponents Added Value System s • Basic Node Com ponents • Netw ork Infrastructure • Factors and Events That Will Enable Technology Commercialization — Intel — Cisco Emerging Commercial Opportunities — Motorola — Siem ens — Hitachi • Softw areArchitecture Intelligent • Interface Nodes — SRI International Standards and Wireless Privacy Agents — Speech Works — IBM Corporation Human- Interoperability Ne tworks — Philips Speech Processing High Computer — HP Laboratories Interfaces Contex t — Nuance — PARC Softwa re Awareness • Work Nodes Smart Spaces Productivity • Standards Impact Business — Palm — Bluetooth SIG Security Models — Sunbeam — IETF — Matsushita Electric — IEEE Medium Applications • Mobile Autonom ous Sw arm s — Nokia — Crossbow T chnologies e — NTT DoCoMo Low — Xybernaut • Personal Netw orks • Sm art Spaces — Sensatex — Display Edge Technology — Sony Low Me dium High — Sym bol Technologies — MIT Media Lab Uncertainty
  13. 13. Capire la………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu tecnologia
  14. 14. Capire i parametri di sviluppo commerciale ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.euPervasive Computing Synergistic Technologies • Interfaces (Human-Machine, Machine to • Miniature Power Sources Machine, Machine to Environment) • Ubiquitous Embedded Processing • Wireless Networks (Cellular, Bluetooth, • Software Architecture Wi-Fi) • Identification of Nodes Required Resources Demand Factors • Partnering Capabilities • Military and Government • IT Expertise • Industrial/Commercial • Spectrum Licenses • Consumer • Funding for Research and Development 1 2 3 General Constraints 4 Regulatory Factors • Value Capture 5 • Privacy • Standards and Interoperability • Security • Storage and Scalability Competing Technologies • Liability • Cost • Current Computing Environment • Human Tools
  15. 15. Capire l’impatto potenziale ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu e le aree da monitorarePervasive Computing Intelligent Wireless Standards and Privacy Agents Human- Interoperability Networks High Computer Context Interfaces Software Awareness Smart Spaces Productivity Impact Business Security Models Medium Low Low Medium High Uncertainty
  16. 16. Capire le implicazioni della ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu commercializzazioneBiopolymers • Growth in GMO-Production Technology • Growth in GMO-Production Technology • Product Formulation Improved by • Application for Nanotechnologies Biopolymers • High-Throughput Screening • Favorable Regulation of Functional Foods Improvements and Nutraceuticals • Progress of Combinatorial Methods • Consumer Preferences Move toward • Advances in Enzymatic and Cell-Free Convenience Foods and Functional and Synthesis Nutraceutical Foods A B New technologies will lead Biopolymers enhance food to novel biopolymers. qualities and production. Implications of Commercialization A+B+C Bioploymer-enabled food processing enhances food formulation and provides a competitive edge in the industry. A+C Biopolymers enhance performance of consumer and industrial products and processes. A+C Fine control of biopolymer production through cellular synthesis leads to customizable material features, and GMOs become a key source for biopolymer production. A+C+D Advanced medical treatments and devices emerge. C Biopolymers gradually replace petroleum-based materials. • Factors and Events That Will Enable Technology Commercialization - 18 - Emerging Commercial Opportunities
  17. 17. Le opportunità ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.euOPPORTUNITIES FOR SMART MATERIALS Emerging Applications Industry Current Applications Within 5 Years Within 10 Years Engine, Drive-Train and Fasteners Vibration Self-Repair Suspension Components Control Automotive Light and Smart Mirrors Self-Repairing Coatings Heat Control Haptic Structural Monitoring Smart and Aerospace and Vibration and Adaptive Defense Noise Control Structures Actuators Minimally Drug Delivery Self-Powered Orthopedics and Medical Invasive Monitoring Prosthetics Surgery Medical Analysis Devices Valves Energy-Saving Earthquake Dampers Noise Control and Seals Systems Industrial, Power and Construction Vibration Control NDTE Motors and Actuators Smart Structures 19 -
  18. 18. Catene del valore ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu VALUE CHAIN FOR SMART MATERIALS IN AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE APPLICATIONS Enabling Components Applications Smart Materials Aircraft, Research and Parts and and Vehicles, Development Title Systems Title Title Components and WeaponsKey R&D and Funding Magnetostrictives Defense SystemsQinetiQ Newlands Scientific BAE Systems Lockheed MartinDARPA Etrema Products Northrop Grumman General DynamicsU.S. Navy Raytheon TextronU.S. Army Shape-Memory Alloys United Technologies ThalesSRI International • EADS NV AdaptaMIT Aerospace Components Aircraft matNASA Rolls-Royce Boeing Memory MetalleORNL Smiths Industries Airbus NDC Memry Corp. General Electric Bombardier Dynalloy, Inc. Siemens AG Dassault Smart Polymers Heraeus Materials Textron Saab AB Cornerstone Hindustan Aerospace Bayer MaterialScience Piezoelectrics Many Suppliers
  19. 19. Scan: Open ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Intelligence Insight about the defining forces of the business environment  Peripheral vision for innovation  Frameworks—identification of threats and opportunities—for successful strategies  Scanning for early signals of change
  20. 20. Most Systems Target Key External Information ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Identify the kind of information that is important strategically Watch Focus StudyCreate a list of most Study in depth thoseimportant information items that require deepand trends to understanding beforesystematically monitor Act action takes place Execute actions triggered and supported by the intelligence activities
  21. 21. Most Businesses Excel In Targeted Intelligence ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Targeted Intelligence processes:  Monitor topics identified through an internal company process or by key decision makers  Track development of issues that have strategic importance  Stimulate and trigger decision making Once important intelligence topics are identified, decision makers know how to analyze them—  Where to go for more information  How to monitor changes  When to report back on new developments
  22. 22. Scanning: ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Open Intelligence Scanning enables companies to look continuously across diverse sources for new signals of change that may have an impact but are not yet on a company watch list. Scanning brings many new ideas to light. Scan Watch Focus StudyCreate a list of most Study in depth thoseimportant information items that requireand trends tosystematically Act deep understanding before action takesmonitor place Execute actions
  23. 23. Scan is an Open ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Intelligence Process Open Intelligence processes:  Provide early warning about topics not yet identified as strategic  Continuously scan unstructured information about the external environment  Cluster data points into topic areas of possible strategic importance  Identify new topics of strategic importance (through sorting and ranking) that may require monitoring in the targeted process Decision makers need a process to identify and apply intelligence from the volumes of unstructured external information in a way that is:  Continuous  Systematic  Refreshing to the targeted intelligence processes
  24. 24. The Process ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Of Scanning Monthly Scan Meeting Monthly Set of 100 AbstractsScanners Patternand Their RecognitionAbstracts Signals of Scan Change of Signals Scan Change of Signals (on the Scan of Signals Consultatio Insights Scan n onInsights specific Change (on the Scan (on theScan Change Web and in (on the Scan Analysis and Insights Signals of Change the (onInsights Web and in Scan (on the Web the Scan (on Scanand in Scan Research Scan Web) the (on Web and in Monthly) Scan Web) Scan Monthly) Scan Scan Web) Monthly) Web) Monthly)
  25. 25. Scan™ Abstract ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu OriginsWe look for In all arenas  Faint signals of change  Consumer behavior  Discontinuities  Regulations/politics  Inflection points  Business processes  Disruptive technologies  Culture  Outliers  Publicopinion  Unconventional wisdom  Science and Technology
  26. 26. Finding Clusters Of ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Related AbstractsScan abstracts typically cluster around industry categories.Abstracts about Abstracts about Advertising and Health Care Wireless Retailing Technologies Potential Defining Forces Privacy Abstracts about Abstracts about Education Abstracts about Information Technologies Manufacturing and the Internet
  27. 27. Clustering ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Close-upScan provides a way to recognize interesting ideas and drivers of change acrossindustry categories. How do these abstracts relate to each other? They all involve continuous monitoring.
  28. 28. Prioritizing ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Clusters Requires Requires Continue to WaitAct immediate MonitorNow study and action See
  29. 29. Benefits Of ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Scan Process Specific benefits:  Provides advance warning of possible emerging technological, commercial, and cultural trends  Fosters broad vision outside normal industry domains  Sets up an analytical framework for deflating media hype  Nurtures futures thinking more broadly in the organization. Broad structural benefit:  Scanning is a reliable way to navigate through the turbulence of change. It allows decision makers to identify: – What to watch – What to study – What to act upon now
  30. 30. Scan ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.euInsight about the defining forces of the business environment  Peripheral vision for innovation  Frameworks—identification of threats and opportunities—for successful strategies  Scanning for early signals of change
  31. 31. Emerging ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Technologies: Explorer for continued monitoring and Next evaluation Generation Technologies to identify commercial opportunities from emerging Scan technologiesfor early signsof change and trends 5 to 15 years 0 to 7 years before commercialization before commercialization
  32. 32. ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Establishing Your OwnOpen Intelligence Process
  33. 33. Key Success Factors For www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Open Intelligence Systems Require a senior level champion Select Scan meeting participants carefully. They need:  breadth of expertise  non-judgmental attitudes  a creative spirit  self-motivation  humor Select a good facilitator Capturethe meeting discussion Hold meetings on a regular basis
  34. 34. Key Success Factors For www.cebbis.eu ………………………………………………………………………………………. Open Intelligence Systems Provide incentives for submitting abstracts and attending meetings (for example, a newsletter where cool ideas are reported) Design a simple process for abstract submission (such as on-line submission) Integrate the open intelligence process into the decision making process Protect from “accountantitis”—the demand for documentation of a return on investment for the cost of the meetings. Develop a regularly scheduled process for determining if/when watch list topics need to removed, studied and/or acted on
  35. 35. ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.euForesight
  36. 36. Foresight ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.euForesight is the application of a systematic, participatory,future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term visionbuilding process to informing present-day decisions andmobilising joint actions at the national and regional level. (Miles and Keenan 2002)
  37. 37. Business ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu ForesightBusiness Foresight: “processo sistematico partecipativo checomporta la rilevazione di informazioni e la creazione divisioni sul futuro a medio-lungo termine, destinato adorientare le decisioni del presente e a mobilitare i mezzinecessari per azioni congiunte.”(Commissione Europea - Direzione Generale Ricerca)
  38. 38. Tipologie ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu di foresightFORESIGHT AREE DI ATTORI OBIETTIVITIPOLOGIA RICERCA Paesi e  Politica  Dirige gliFORESIGHT Istituzioni  Economia investimenti diNAZIONALE Nazionali  Società una nazione Centri di  IndustriaFORESIGHT Ricerca  Identifica trend  TecnologiaSETTORIALE associazioni di industriali categoria  Disegno  Industria  Da input allaFORESIGHT  Tecnologia strategia AziendaAZIENDALE  Disegno  Da input alla  Prodotti ricerca
  39. 39. Foresight ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Politica pianificazione & decisioni ForesightProspettive Partecipazione & futuri & networking
  40. 40. Foresight - ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu caratteristiche Foresight is not only about analysing or contemplating future developments but supporting actors to actively shape the future. PurelyAction oriented analytical studies of possible futures without connection to possible actions are not considered as Foresight. Foresight assumes that the future is not pre-determined. The future can therefore evolve in different directions, which can be shaped to someOpen to extent by the actions of various players and the decisions taken today. Inalternative futures other words, there is a certain degree of freedom to choose among the alternative, feasible futures, and hence increase the chance of arriving at the preferred (selected) future state. Foresight is not done by a small group of experts or academics but involves a number of different groups of actors concerned with the issuesParticipatory at stake. The results are disseminated among a large audience from which feedback is actively sought. Foresight provides an approach that captures realities in their totality withMultidisciplinary all the variables influencing them, regardless of the type (quantitative and qualitative).
  41. 41. Obiettivi di ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu foresightEuropean Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN): mapping 50 foresight exercises
  42. 42. Output e impatti ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu IMPATTI A BREVE IMPATTI A LUNGO OUTPUT TERMINE TERMINE• Report • Creazione di reti di • Miglioramento del• Elenco di tecnologie stakeholder processo per prendere importanti • Supporto alle decisioni decisioni • Condivizsione del • Capire e formare il• Priorita commitment per futuro• Roadmap implementare decisioni • Aumento della credibilità• Piani di azioni • Miglioramento del e accettabilità delle decisioni• Visioni di futuri processo per prendere desiderati decisioni • Riconfigurazione del • trasparenza sistema• Supporto nella definizione della • legittimità • Creazione di una capacità per foresight strategia/politica continuativa
  43. 43. Il processo ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu di foresight 1 Feasibility assessment Landscape Policy cycle Political support 2 Scoping and design Major design Obtaining resources Setting-up Designing the decisions methodologyDefining the focus Costs Information gathering Methodological frameworkSetting the objectives Funding Organisation design Process:Defining the users, Skills and competences Project team definition Diagnosisoutcomes, scope, approach Steering Committee def. PrognosisSetting the time horizon Communication strategy PrescriptionSetting the timeframe Implementation plan Foresight methods 3 Implementation Time Cost/Resources Quality/Scope 4 Follow up Dissemination Evaluation Activity plan
  44. 44. ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.euStrategic Technology Roadmapping
  45. 45. Outline of ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Presentation What are technology roadmaps? How do I make one? What would I do if I had one? Ways to get started: Explorer to custom technology roadmapping Some project examples
  46. 46. What is a Technology ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Roadmap?  The analogy with an actual road map is still the best one• A road map sets out the landscape• It shows us a number of different paths we can take depending on the starting point• Too many paths for any one person or company to take simultaneously• We must make a choice depending on where we want to go and our objectives• The pathway we end up choosing will depend on a number of external and internal considerations• Considerations such as: the traffic the enabling technology the weather
  47. 47. Where You Want to Go Will Affect the Best Route ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu• There may be multiple pathways to get to the same or very similar destinations• Some pathways may be shorter or better than others• Personal, business or external considerations will affect the choice
  48. 48. Monitor Progress and Events to ………………………………………………………………………………………. Decide if the Pathway www.cebbis.eu Remains Correct• Monitoring everything is neither useful or possible… • …But monitoring progress along the route and potential events is advisable • Knowing what to monitor and the signs to look for becomes a key capability • Knowing……….  What the showstoppers are!  When a change in technology is required  How to resolve conflicting signs
  49. 49. Technology Roadmaps Are Not ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Conceptually Different Technology roadmaps should set out the landscape: the status and direction of an opportunity, an application or a technology Time is the major axis and key uncertainty: roadmaps can no more predict the future than crystal balls, but they can set out the possibilities The industry-level roadmap shows the possible paths that individual organizations (as well as their products, services and technologies) might take in developing the opportunity A company pathway sets out what an organization is going to do Now 2 Years 5 Years Product/Service A B C • Milestones help plot the pathway and are used to measure progress Functional Requirements A B C Technologies 1 2 3 4 Pathway Milestone
  50. 50. …In Reality, Roadmaps Can Take ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Many Different Forms  Some of the most well-known technology roadmaps are the result of widespread industry consensus  The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors sets out major device-level functional requirements, the technology options and roadblocks  The ITRS is designed to keep Moore’s law on track and is not geared to specific user applications and markets  These types of roadmaps are particularly designed with milestone technology planning in mind. Technology TimeFunctionalityor metric Source: ITRS Unknown solutions: roadblocks
  51. 51. We Focus on Strategic Technology ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Roadmaps The word “strategic” is frequently used: what do we mean by it here? We mean that the roadmap is more than just about technology Industry-Level Roadmap Development The roadmap must outline the Now 2 Years 5 Years products and services, within the Business Need Competition Market opportunity, that businesses or Considerations consumers would actually buy Products/Services A B C It must relate product and services to functional requirements and/or Features/Functions A B C technologies It must describe key business Technologies 1 2 3 4 considerations that help us decide what is the right pathway
  52. 52. First Create a Profile of ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu the Opportunity First and foremost, creating a technology roadmap requires industry research to describe the opportunity:  What is market need and the likely evolution of products and services?  What are the enabling technologies, and how might they evolve?  What are the critical success factors and other business considerations?  What are the key uncertainties? In project work, we typically use a standard profile template Where possible, industry interviews should help gauge the product/service evolution and technology hurdles. ANALYSIS OPPORTUNITY Business Attractiveness Key Success Factors DESCRIPTION Potential revenue Business modelNeed Profitability Alliances/partnersProducts/services Competition Level of service requiredMarkets Regulations TechnologyValue chain Entry barriers Channels R&D requirements Manufacturing Risk Marketing
  53. 53. From Profile to ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Technology Roadmap  Conceptually, the various elements of the profile become the major inputs to the roadmap  In reality, creating the roadmap may require further research about product, market and technology progression and timing  Creating a timeline helps ensure products do not occur before the enabling technologies are ready!!! Products/Services & Functions Products/ Services 1 Products/ Services 2 Products/Services A B C A B C Industry-Level Roadmap Development Necessary Now 2 Years 5 Years Features/Functions Business Need Competition Market 1..…….Opportunity 2.…….. 3. …. Considerations Profile Products/Services A B C Features/Functions Technologies & A B C Business Considerations Technologies 1 2 3 4 Technologies 1..….. 2..….. 3..…. Business Considerations 1..….. 2..….. 3. ….
  54. 54. Example Roadmap ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu  Roadmap for a Japanese multinational electronics company  Accompanying tables describe the products, services, functions, technologies and business considerations Industry Roadmap Now N-1 1 Yr 1-3 3 Yrs 3-5 5 Yrs 5-7 7 Yrs 7- Business B1 B3 B5 B48 B50 B52 B54 B56 B57Considerations B2 B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55 B6 B11 Products/ B7 B9 B62 B64 B67 B12 B15 B16 Services B8 B60 B10 B17 B75 B77 B58 B59 B61 B63 B66 B69 B71 B74 B68 B14 B70 B72 B96 B101 B105 B27 Function B82 B85 B92 B94 B97 B79 B83 B89 B19 B95 B22 B86 B21 B18 B90 B93 B20 B99 B103 B80 B87 B106 B100 B104 B84 B91 B42 Technologies B108 B32 B36 B88 B44 B40 B28 B33 B110 B112 B45 B113 B41 B116 B117 B29 B34 B37 B23 B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B115 B39
  55. 55. From Industry Roadmap ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu to Company Pathway  First and foremost, industry roadmaps set out multiple pathways and options  Just like a travel road map, they make us confront the decisions that need to be taken to move forward: to get from A to B  When creating a company-specific roadmap or pathway, the business considerations set out what we need to consider to make the decision  Business consideration examples might include:  A missing core competence  A market uncertainty  A competitive threat or critical success factor • The company pathway and Company Roadmap (Pathway) milestones chart the company’s Now 2 Years 5 Years course • Signposts are set up to make This way This wayBusiness Need Competition No Yes Market No YesConsiderations sure we are on track and don’t need to change courseProduct/Servic A B Ce Pathway • Programs like SRIC-BI’sFunctional Explorer can help with signpostRequirements A B C  Milestone monitoring This way  Signpost NoTechnologies 1 2 3 4 Yes
  56. 56. Roadmap Development ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Recap Industry Roadmap Now N-1 1 Yr 1-3 3 Yrs 3-5 5 Yrs 5-7 7 Yrs 7-  Industry Roadmaps Business B1 B3 B5 B48 B50 B52 B54 B56 B57 • Set out key business considerations,Considerations B2 B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55 B6 B11 Products/ B62 B64 B67 B12 B15 products/services, functions, and technologies for a B7 B9 B16 Services B8 B60 B10 B17 B75 B77 B58 B59 B61 B63 B66 B69 B71 B74 B68 B14 B70 B72 Function B79 B82 B83 B85 B86 B89 B92 B19 B94 B95 B96 B97 B99 B101 B105 B21 B22 B27 potential opportunity for commercialization B80 B18 B90 B93 B20 B103 B106 B87 B100 B104 • Provide a basis for selected strategy (path) B84 B91 B42 Technologies B108 B32 B36 B88 B44 B40 B28 B33 B110 B112 B45 B113 B41 B116 B117 B29 B34 B37 B23 B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B115 B39  Company Path Company Path Business Now B1 B3 N-1 B5 B48 1 Yr B50 B52 B54 1-3 B56 B57 3 Yrs 3-5 5 Yrs 5-7 7 Yrs 7- • Selected strategy elements--business considerations, products/services, functions, and technologies over Considerations B2 B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55 (Signposts) Products/ B6 B11 time B62 B64 B67 B12 B15 B7 B9 B16 Services B8 B200 B60 B10 B17 B75 B77 B58 B59 B61 B63 B66 B69 B71 B74 B68 B14 B70 B72 • Describes important business considerations and B96 Function B82 B85 B92 B94 B97 B101 B105 B27 B79 B83 B89 B19 B95 B22 B86 B21 B18 B90 B93 B20 B99 B103 B80 B87 B106 products/services, etc. to be created B100 B104 B84 B91 Technologies B108 B32 B36 B88 B40 B42 B44 B28 B33 B110 B112 B45 B41 B116 B117 B29 B34 B37 B113 • Identifies strategic signposts to be monitored B23 B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B115 B39
  57. 57. Now I Have a Roadmap, ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu What Do I Do With it? Roadmaps are only a description of the organization’s path; to be useful they must lead to action Describing, selecting and carrying out the action steps is more challenging (and often uncomfortable) than charting a path, but ultimately that is where the value lies A road map analogy again:  A road map helps you chart your journey  An action plan sets out:  Checking the weather before you start  Filling up the car with gas  Putting the snow tires on  Not forgetting to bring: the map, the children, the dog………  Some actions may be more of a priority than others!
  58. 58. Action Roadmaps are Essential ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu • Action roadmaps display and describe the basic actions required to execute the pathway (strategy). • Priority (short term) actions are highlighted. • Key monitoring elements and signposts are described Action Roadmap Now 1 Years 3 Years 10 Years 5 Years Business B3 Considerations B1 ple (signposts) B2 Exam B4 P1 Products/Services P3 P2 P4 P5 Company Roadmap Functions/ T1 T4 Now 2 Years 5 Years Thi w s ay Thi w s ay Technologies & T2 T5Business T7 No No Need Competition Market Other Capabilities T3 Yes YesConsiderations T6Product/Service A B C PathwayFunctionalRequirements A B C Continuous monitoring or improvement Priority Actions Milestone Leads to next generation B1: Verify need and initial target Thi w s ay NoTechnologies 1 2 3 4 Yes Signpost B2: Monitor key threats P1: Design and bundle initial product/service P2: Test customer acceptance
  59. 59. Roadmapping Uses: A Focus on Business Strategy and ………………………………………………………………………………………. www.cebbis.eu Product/Service Development• The ultimate aim of developing roadmaps and action plans will vary by company and project, but two obvious different cases exist: 1. Using the roadmap principally for business strategy, entry options and product/service development 2. Using the roadmap for developing a technology strategy or portfolio• In the first case, the potential product/service pathways are critical, as is a close examination of the business considerations — Business considerations will capture threats from competition and key business challenges, organizational issues, or consumer acceptance — Actions might be: the need to test consumer acceptance of products; alliance or acquisition analysis; the need to develop internal capabilities such as a service organization — In this example, the technologies may be readily acquired, or the necessary technology alliances can be easily formed
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