Technology Roadmaps
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Technology Roadmaps

on

  • 3,082 views

AREA Science Park & SRIC-BI: from Explorer™t o Custom Roadmapping and Action Plans

AREA Science Park & SRIC-BI: from Explorer™t o Custom Roadmapping and Action Plans

Statistics

Views

Total Views
3,082
Views on SlideShare
3,059
Embed Views
23

Actions

Likes
3
Downloads
214
Comments
0

2 Embeds 23

http://www.area.trieste.it 12
http://www.slideshare.net 11

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

Technology Roadmaps Technology Roadmaps Presentation Transcript

  • From Explorer™ to Custom Roadmapping and Action Plans Trieste: November 26, 2008 Robert Thomas, Ph.D. Principal SRI Consulting Business Intelligence http://www.sric-bi.com
  • SRI Consulting Business Intelligence Services Address Representative Markets and Technology Clients Idea Strategy Strategy Intelligence Generation Development Execution • Aramco • Microsoft CONSULTING SERVICES • Auto Mfgs: US, Japan, • Nalco EU Opportunity Discovery • NRC (Canada) • Best Buy Roadmapping • Chevron • PDVSA Scanning, Monitoring, and Other Intelligence Solutions • Consumer Products • SABIC Scenario Planning/Strategy • Consumer Electronics • Samsung Commercialization • Eastman Chemical • Statoil Consumer Demand • ExxonMobil Technology and Market Assessment • Shell • Intevep • TVA SYNDICATED RESEARCH PROGRAMS • ITRI Explorer • U.S. Government • L’Oreal Scan™ • Motorola • Weyerhaeuser Virtual Worlds Consumer Financial Decisions VALS™ • Syndicated Research • More than 300 clients worldwide Key services and programs 1
  • Outline of Presentation • What are technology roadmaps? • How do I make one? • What would I do if I had one? • Ways to get started: Explorer to custom technology roadmapping • Some SRIC-BI project examples 2
  • What Do We Mean by a Technology Roadmap? The analogy with an actual road map is still the best one • A road map sets out the landscape • It shows us a number of different paths we can take depending on the starting point • Too many paths for any one person or company to take simultaneously • We must make a choice depending on where we want to go and our objectives • The pathway we end up choosing will depend on a number of external and internal considerations • Considerations such as: the traffic the enabling technology the weather 3
  • Where You Want to Go Will Obviously Affect the Best Route • There may be multiple pathways to get to the same or very similar destinations • Some pathways may be shorter or better than others • Personal, business or external considerations will affect the choice 4
  • Once the Route is Chosen We Need to Monitor Progress and Events to Decide if the Pathway Remains Correct • Monitoring everything is neither useful or possible… • …But monitoring progress along the route and potential events is advisable • Knowing what to monitor and the signs to look for becomes a key capability • Knowing………. What the showstoppers are! When a change in technology is required How to resolve conflicting signs 5
  • Technology Roadmaps Are Not Conceptually Different from a Road Map… • Technology roadmaps should set out the landscape: the status and direction of an opportunity, an application and the associated technologies. • Time is the major axis and a key uncertainty: roadmaps can no more predict the future than crystal balls, but they can set out the possibilities • The industry-level roadmap shows the possible paths that individual organizations (as well as their products, services and technologies) might take in developing the opportunity • A company pathway sets out what an organization is going to do Now 2 Years 5 Years Product/Service A B C • Milestones help plot the pathway and are used to measure Functional progress Requirements A B C Technologies 1 2 3 4 Pathway Milestone 6
  • …In Reality, Roadmaps Can Take Many Different Forms • Some of the most well-known technology roadmaps are the result of widespread industry consensus • The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors sets out major device-level functional requirements, the technology options and roadblocks • The ITRS is designed to keep Moore’s law on track and is not geared to specific user applications and markets • These types of roadmaps are particularly designed with milestone technology planning in mind. Technology Time Functionality or metric Source: ITRS Unknown solutions: roadblocks 7
  • At SRIC-BI, We Focus on What We Call Strategic Technology Roadmaps The word “strategic” is frequently used: what do we mean by it here? • We mean that the roadmap is more than just about technology Industry-Level Roadmap Development • The roadmap must outline the Now 2 Years 5 Years products and services, within the Business Need Competition Market opportunity, that businesses or Considerations consumers would actually buy Products/Services A B C • It must relate product and services to functional requirements and/or Features/Functions A B C technologies • It must describe key business Technologies 1 2 3 4 considerations that help us decide what is the right pathway 8
  • How To Make a Technology Roadmap: First Create a Profile of the Opportunity • First and foremost, creating a technology roadmap requires industry research to describe the opportunity: — What is market need and the likely evolution of products and services? — What are the enabling technologies, and how might they evolve? — What are the critical success factors and other business considerations? — What are the key uncertainties? • In project work, SRIC-BI typically uses a standard profile template • Where possible, industry interviews should help gauge the product/service evolution and technology hurdles. ANALYSIS OPPORTUNITY Business Attractiveness Key Success Factors DESCRIPTION • Potential revenue • Business model • Need • Profitability • Alliances/partners • Products/services • Competition • Level of service required • Markets • Regulations • Technology • Value chain • Entry barriers • Channels • R&D requirements • Manufacturing • Risk • Marketing 9
  • From Profile to Technology Roadmap • The various elements of the profile become the major inputs to the roadmap • In reality, creating the roadmap may require further research about product, market and technology progression and timing • Creating a timeline helps ensure products do not occur before the enabling technologies are ready!!! Products/Services & Functions Products/ Services 1 Products/ Services 2 Products/Services A B C A B C Industry-Level Roadmap Development Necessary Now 2 Years 5 Years Features/Functions Business Need Competition Market 1..……. Considerations Opportunity 2.…….. 3. …. Profile Products/Services A B C Features/Functions Technologies & A B C Business Considerations Technologies 1 2 3 4 Technologies 1..….. 2..….. 3..…. Business Considerations 1..….. 2..….. 3. …. 10
  • Example Industry-Level Roadmap • Roadmap for a Japanese multinational IT company in the area of Integrated Enterprise Information Systems • Accompanying tables describe the products, services, functions, technologies and business considerations Industry Roadmap Now N-1 1 Yr 1-3 3 Yrs 3-5 5 Yrs 5-7 7 Yrs 7- Business B1 B3 B5 B48 B50 B52 B54 B56 B57 Considerations B2 B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55 B6 B11 Products/ B7 B9 B62 B64 B67 B12 B15 B16 Services B8 B60 B10 B17 B75 B77 B58 B59 B61 B63 B66 B69 B71 B74 B68 B14 B70 B72 B96 B105 B27 Function B82 B85 B92 B94 B97 B101 B79 B83 B89 B19 B95 B22 B86 B21 B18 B90 B93 B20 B99 B103 B80 B87 B106 B100 B104 B84 B91 B42 Technologies B108 B32 B36 B88 B44 B40 B28 B33 B110 B112 B45 B41 B116 B117 B29 B34 B37 B113 B23 B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B115 B39 11
  • From Industry Roadmap to Company Pathway • First and foremost, industry roadmaps set out multiple pathways and options • Just like a travel road map, they make us confront the decisions that need to be taken to move forward: to get from A to B • When creating a company-specific roadmap or pathway, the business considerations set out what we need to consider to make the decision • Business consideration examples might include: — A missing core competence — A market uncertainty — A competitive threat or critical success factor Company Roadmap (Pathway) • The company pathway and Now 2 Years 5 Years milestones chart the Business This way No This way No company’s course Need Competition Yes Market Yes Considerations • Signposts are set up to make sure we are on track and don’t Product/Service A B C need to change course Pathway • Programs like SRIC-BI’s Functional Explorer can help with Requirements A B C Milestone signpost monitoring This way No Technologies 1 2 3 4 Yes Signpost 12
  • Roadmap Development Recap ct oj e pl e Pr m a Ex Industry Roadmap Now N-1 1 Yr 1-3 3 Yrs 3-5 5 Yrs 5-7 7 Yrs 7- Industry Roadmaps Business B1 B3 B5 B48 B50 B52 B54 B56 B57 Considerations B2 B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55 B6 B11 • Set out key business considerations, Products/ B62 B64 B67 B12 B15 Services B7 B8 B58 B9 B59 B60 B61 B10 B63 B66 B68 B17 B69 B71 B74 B75 B77 B16 products/services, functions, and technologies for B14 B70 a potential opportunity for commercialization B72 B96 B105 B27 Function B82 B85 B92 B94 B97 B101 B79 B83 B89 B19 B95 B22 B86 B21 B80 B18 B84 B87 B90 B91 B93 B20 B99 B100 B103 B104 B106 • Provide a basis for selected strategy (path) B42 Technologies B108 B32 B36 B88 B44 B40 B28 B33 B110 B112 B45 B41 B116 B117 B29 B34 B37 B113 B23 B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B115 B39 Company Path N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7- Company Path Business Now 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs B1 B3 B5 B48 B50 B52 B54 B56 B57 Considerations B2 (Signposts) B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55 • Selected strategy elements--business Products/ Services B6 B7 B8 B11 B9 B200 B60 B62 B10 B64 B67 B17 B12 B15 B75 B16 B77 considerations, products/services, functions, and B58 B59 B61 B63 B66 B69 B71 B74 technologies over time B68 B14 B70 B72 B96 B27 Function B82 B85 B92 B94 B97 B101 B105 B22 • Describes important business considerations and B79 B83 B89 B19 B95 B86 B21 B18 B90 B93 B20 B99 B103 B80 B87 B106 B100 B104 B84 B91 Technologies B108 B32 B28 B33 B36 B110 B112 B88 B41 B116 B44 B117 B40 B42 B45 products/services, etc. to be created B29 B34 B37 B113 B23 B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B39 B115 • Identifies strategic signposts to be monitored 13
  • Now I Have a Roadmap, What Do I Do With it? • Company roadmaps are only a description of the organization’s path; to be useful they must lead to action • Describing, selecting and carrying out the action steps is more challenging than charting a path, but ultimately that is where the value lies • A road map analogy again: — A road map helps you chart your journey — An action plan sets out: – Checking the weather before you start – Filling up the car with gas – Putting the snow tires on – Not forgetting to bring: the map, the children, the dog……… — Some actions may be more of a priority than others! 14
  • Action Roadmaps are Essential (Plans Without Actions Have No Value) • Action roadmaps display and describe the basic actions required to execute the pathway (strategy). • Priority (short term) actions are highlighted. • Key monitoring elements and signposts are described Action Roadmap Now 1 Years 3 Years 10 Years 5 Years Business B3 Considerations B1 ple (signposts) B2 Exam B4 P1 Products/Services P3 P2 P4 P5 Company Roadmap Functions/ T1 T4 Now 2 Years This way This way 5 Years Technologies & T2 T5 Business Considerations Need Competition No Yes Market No Yes Other Capabilities T3 T7 T6 Product/Service A B C Pathway Functional Continuous monitoring or improvement Requirements A B C Priority Actions Milestone Leads to next generation This way No B1: Verify need and initial target Technologies 1 2 3 4 Yes Signpost B2: Monitor key threats P1: Design and bundle initial product/service P2: Test customer acceptance 15
  • Roadmapping Uses: A Focus on Business Strategy and Product/Service Development • The ultimate aim of developing roadmaps and action plans will vary by company and project, but two obvious different cases exist: 1. Using the roadmap principally for business strategy, entry options and product/service development 2. Using the roadmap for developing a technology strategy or portfolio • In the first case, the potential product/service pathways are critical, as is a close examination of the business considerations — Business considerations will capture threats from competition and key business challenges, organizational issues, or consumer acceptance — Actions might be: the need to test consumer acceptance of products; alliance or acquisition analysis; the need to develop internal capabilities such as a service organization — In such cases as this, the technologies may be readily acquired, or the necessary technology alliances can be easily formed 16
  • Roadmapping Uses: Selecting a Technology Portfolio • For technology-oriented organizations (government labs, corporate research departments), the focus for roadmaps and actions may be on developing future technology concepts and other capabilities • Multiple product/service roadmaps can serve as the basis for developing a technology portfolio • Actions may relate to filling key capabilities, licensing and R&D partnering Technology Concept Analysis and Selection Multiple Product/Service Roadmaps Products & Product b Product d Product a Product c Product e Service b Service d Service a Service c Service e Product f Service f Industry Level Roadmap 1 Services Industry Level Roadmap 2 Industry Level Roadmap 3 Techs & 5 Roadmap 4 Industry Level Years Now 10 Years Industry Level RoadmapYears Now 5 Years 10 5 Other capabilities Industry Level Roadmap 6 Now 5 Years 10 Years Products/Services A Now B 5 Years C 10 Years Technology a X X X Products/Services A Now B 5 Years C 10 Years Products/Services A Now B 5 YearsC 10 Years Products/Services A B C Technology b X X Features/Functions Products/Services A BA BC C Features/Functions Products/ServicesA BA BC C Technology c X X X X X X X Features/Functions A B C Features/Functions A B C Features/Functions 1 2 A 3 B 4 C Technology e X X X X X X Technologies Features/Functions 1 2 A 3 B4 C Technologies 1 2 3 4 Technologies Technologies 1 Distribution Channels 3 2 4 Other Capabilities Technologies 1 Distribution Channels 3 2 Customer acceptance 4 Capability 1 X X Other Capabilities Technologies 1Distribution Channels 3 Customer2 assessment system acceptance 4 Other Capabilities Distribution Channels assessment system Customer acceptance Other Capabilities assessment Channels Distribution system Customer acceptance Capability 2 X X X X X X X Other Capabilities Distribution Channels assessment system Customer acceptance Other Capabilities assessment system Customer acceptance Capability 3 X X X X X X assessment system Capability 4 X X X X X X X 17
  • Roadmap Development Recap ple m E xa Industry Roadmap Now N-1 1 Yr 1-3 3 Yrs 3-5 5 Yrs 5-7 7 Yrs 7- Industry Roadmaps Business B1 B3 B5 B48 B50 B52 B54 B56 B57 Considerations B2 B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55 B6 B11 • Set out key business considerations, Products/ B62 B64 B67 B12 B15 Services B7 B8 B58 B9 B59 B60 B61 B10 B63 B66 B68 B17 B69 B71 B74 B75 B77 B16 products/services, functions, and technologies for B14 B70 a potential opportunity for commercialization B72 B96 B105 B27 Function B82 B85 B92 B94 B97 B101 B79 B83 B89 B19 B95 B22 B86 B21 B80 B18 B84 B87 B90 B91 B93 B20 B99 B100 B103 B104 B106 • Provide a basis for selected strategy (path) B42 Technologies B108 B32 B36 B88 B44 B40 B28 B33 B110 B112 B45 B41 B116 B117 B29 B34 B37 B113 B23 B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B115 B39 N-1 1-3 Company Path 3-5 5-7 7- Company Path Business Now 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Considerations B2 (Signposts) B1 B3 B4 B5 B47 B48 B49 B50 B51 B53 B52 B54 B55 B56 B57 • Selected strategy elements--business Products/ Services B6 B7 B8 B11 B9 B200 B60 B62 B10 B64 B67 B17 B12 B15 B75 B16 considerations, products/services, functions, and B77 technologies over time B58 B59 B61 B63 B66 B69 B71 B74 B68 B14 B70 B72 B96 B27 Function B82 B85 B92 B94 B97 B101 B105 B79 B80 B83 B18 B84 B86 B87 B91 B89 B90 B19 B93 B95 B20 B99 B100 B21 B103 B104 B22 B106 • Describes important business considerations and Technologies B108 B32 B28 B33 B36 B110 B112 B88 B44 B40 B42 B45 products/services, etc. to be created B41 B116 B117 B29 B34 B37 B113 B23 B111 B114 • Identifies strategic signposts to be monitored B30 B35 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B115 B39 Actions Now 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Actions Business Z1 Z4 Considerations (Signposts) Z2 Z3 • Displays and describes required actions to Products/ Services Z5 Z6 Z9 Z10 execute company pathways Z7 Z8 • Highlights priority actions Functions/ Z11 Z15 Technologies Z14 Z16 Z18 Z12 Z13 Z17 18
  • Outline of Presentation • What are technology roadmaps? • How do I make one? • What would I do if I had one? • Ways to get started: Explorer to custom technology roadmapping • Some project examples from SRIC-BI 19
  • What Does a Custom Roadmap Mean in the Context of Explorer? • Explorer is a syndicated program, with a wide and diverse client base • The Explorer charts of technology commercialization are designed for breadth — Explorer highlights the commercial implications, from technology development, for many products, industries and markets — Technology maps often combine many different enabling technologies • In contrast, a custom roadmap is created with an individual organization in mind • However, Explorer’s research and technology maps are a good basis from which to develop a customized roadmap — To aid in developing the opportunity profiles — To identify critical enabling technologies and inhibitors — To assist with player profiling that is often an important feature of such projects — To identify important areas to monitor 20
  • SRIC-BI’s Explorer Program is a Valuable Source To Create the Initial Opportunity Profiles Customized Strategic Technology Roadmaps Monitoring Now 2 Years 5 Years Business Considerations Need Competition This way No Yes Market This way No Yes System Product/ A B C Service Functional A B C Requirements Opportunity Technologies 1 2 3 4 Profiles 2001-2 2003-4 P D P G row th R a te from Triod e H igh - P D P G row th 20 0 3 to 2 0 04 D efinition Full- R a te from Color P rototyp e 2 00 1 to 2 0 02 lo ws ) or S 2 h co st Lo w 20 0 (h ig In Lo w High H ig or De h (lo G ro la y w ws to co 20 st ) 04 Milestones Signposts Commercial Development Parameters Opportunities: Applications QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime™ and a decompressor QuickTime™ and a QuickTime™ and a are needed to see this picture. decompressor decompressor are needed to see this picture. are needed to see this picture. QuickTime™ and a Qu c k T m e ™a n d a i i QuickTime™ and a QuickTime™ and a decompressor d c o mp re ss o r e decompressor decompressor are needed to see this picture. re e d a n e d e to s e e th s p i tu e . i c r are needed to see this picture. are needed to see this picture. Synergistic Technologies QuickTime™ and a Emerging Applications decompressor are needed to see this picture. • Interfaces (Human-Machine, Machine to • Miniature Power Sources QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime™ and a QuickTime™ and a decompressor decompressor are needed to see this picture. are needed to see this picture. Industry Current Applications Within 5 Years Within 10 Years Machine, Machine to Environment) • Ubiquitous Embedded Processing QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. • Wireless Networks (Cellular, Bluetooth, • Software Architecture QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. Fasteners QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. Engine, Drive-Train and Wi-Fi) Vibration Self-Repair • Identification of Nodes Automotive Suspension Components QuickTime™ and a QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. Control QuickTime™ and a decompressor decompressor are needed to see this picture. are needed to see this picture. Light and QuickTime™ and a QuickTime™ and a QuickTime™ and a QuickTime™ and a decompressor decompressor decompressor decompressor Sma rt M i rr rs o are needed to see this picture. Self-Repairing Coatings are needed to see this picture. Heat Control are needed to see this picture. Haptic needed to see this picture. are Required Resources Demand Factors • Partnering Capabilities • Military and Government Structural Monitoring Smart and Aerospace and Vibration and • IT Expertise • Industrial/Commercial Defense Noise Control Adaptive Structures Actuators • Spectrum Licenses • Consumer • Funding for Research and Development 1 Drug Delivery Minimally 2 Medical Invasive Orthopedics and Prosthetics Self-Powered Monitoring Devices 3 Surgery General Constraints Opportunities: Business Environment Medical Analysis 4 QuickTime™ and a decompressor QuickTime™ and a decompressor QuickTime™ and a decompressor QuickTime™ and a decompressor Regulatory Factors are needed to see this picture. are needed to see this picture. are needed to see this picture. are needed to see this picture. • Value Capture 5 Energy-Saving • Standards and Interoperability Valves • Privacy and Seals Earthquake Dampers Noise Control Systems • Storage and Scalability Industrial, Power • Security Enabling Components Applications Competing Technologies and Construction • Cost Vibration Control NDTE Motors and Actuators Smart Structures • Liability • Current Computing Environment Building Blocks of the • Human Tools Implications Research and Development art rial nd Sm Mate s a Components Parts and Systems Aircraft, Vehicles, and Weapons Technology • Growth in GMO-Production Technology • Growth in GMO-Production Technology Key R&D and Funding Magnetostrictives Defense Systems • Product Formulation Improved by • Qinetiq • Newlands Scientific • BAE Systems • Lockheed Martin • Application for Nanotechnologies Biopolymers • DARPA • Etrema Products • Northrop Grumman • General Dynamics • High-Throughput Screening • U.S. Navy • Raytheon • Textron Applications • Favorable Regulation of Functional Foods • U.S. Army • United Technologies • Thales — Telecommunications Improvements and Nutraceuticals Shape-Memory Alloys • Mobile Autonomous • SRI International • EADS NV Swarms — Transportation • Progress of Combinatorial Methods • Adaptamat • Consumer Preferences Move toward • MIT — Military (Smart Dust) (Commercial, Private) Systems • Memory Metalle — Home Networks • Advances in Enzymatic and Cell-Free Convenience Foods and Functional and • NASA — Industrial-Plant • NDC Aerospace Components Aircraft (Appliance • Network Infrastructure • ORNL Maintenance Synthesis Nutraceutical Foods • Memry Corp. • Rolls-Royce • Boeing — Agriculture (Field Collaboration, — PAN, LAN, WAN • Dynalloy, Inc. • Smiths Industries • Airbus Analysis) Security) • Software Architecture • Heraeus Materials • General Electric • Bombardier — Resource Extraction • Personal Networks — Discovery A B • Siemens AG • Dassault • Smart Spaces — Health Care (Privacy, — Intelligent Software Agents New technologies will lead Biopolymers enhance food • Textron • Saab AB — Office Networks Remote Monitoring) — Context Awareness to novel biopolymers. qualities and production. Smart Polymers — Entertainment (Virtual — Operating Systems • Hindustan Aerospace — Inventory Management • Cornerstone Environments) — Scalability • Bayer MaterialScience • Standards — Network and Communication Implications of Commercialization Protocols Piezoelectrics Enabling Components • Interface Nodes — Application and Presentation A+B+C Bioploymer-enabled food processing enhances food formulation and provides a competitive edge in • Many Suppliers Protocols the industry. • Basic Node Components — Processor — Power Source — Input Devices (Mouse, Stylus, Speech Recognition) A+C Biopolymers enhance performance of consumer and industrial products and processes. Players — Biometrics A+C Fine control of biopolymer production through cellular synthesis leads to customizable material — Communication — Software Agents Capability (GPS features, and GMOs become a key source for biopolymer production. Transmitters, RFID, Sensors) — Embedded Software • Work Nodes — PDAs — Home Appliances Issues and Uncertainties A+C+D Advanced medical treatments and devices emerge. C Biopolymers gradually replace petroleum-based materials. — Robots Enabling Components Added Value Systems • Basic Node Components • Network Infrastructure • Factors and Events That Will Enable Technology Commercialization — Intel — Cisco Emerging Commercial Opportunities — Motorola — Siemens — Hitachi • Software Architecture Intelligent • Interface Nodes — SRI International Wireless Agents Standards and — Speech Works Privacy — IBM Corporation Networks Human- Interoperability — Philips Speech Processing — HP Laboratories High Computer Interfaces Context — Nuance — PARC Software Awareness Smart Spaces Productivity • Work Nodes • Standards Impact Business — Palm — Bluetooth SIG Security Models — Sunbeam — IETF — Matsushita Electric — IEEE Medium Applications • Mobile Autonomous Swarms — Nokia — Crossbow Technologies — NTT DoCoMo Low — Xybernaut • Personal Networks • Smart Spaces — Sensatex — Display Edge Technology — Sony Low Medium High — Symbol Technologies — MIT Media Lab Uncertainty Explorer’s Charts of Commercialization 21
  • Roadmapping Example: CIGS Solar Cells 22
  • Project Outline: CIGS Solar Cells • The client, a government-funded laboratory, wanted to develop its strategy for a particular type of solar cell: copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) • CIGS has one of the highest efficiencies of any thin-film solar cell • The aims of the project were several fold: — Profile the industry – Understand the players, their technological approaches and business plans – Assess strengths of the patents of leading players (SRI support) – Develop an estimate of CIGS production capacity over 10 years — Assess the major cost contributions for CIGS solar cell production — Develop an industry roadmap showing major approaches, and identify a number of strategic choices (pathways) 23
  • SRIC-BI’s Explorer Technology Map for Photovoltaics Provided a Useful Starting Point PHOTOVOLTAICS INDUSTRY ROADMAP: FOCUS ON CIGS Category 2006 2010 2015 Rising Energy Demand Regional and National Regional and National Rising Energy Demand Business And Costs Energy Policies Energy Policies Energy Storage Energy Storage And Costs Considerations Polysilicon Supply Polysilicon Supply Recycling Recycling (CDP) Semiconductor Industry Semiconductor Industry Standards Standards Government and State Government and State Rural Area Rural Area Nanotechnology Nanotechnology Areas to Subsidies and Incentives Subsidies and Incentives Financing Advances in Manufacturing Financing Advances in Manufacturing Monitor Renewable Energy Renewable Energy China Organic Solar Cells Technologies China Organic Solar Cells Technologies Residential and Commercial Residential and Commercial BIPV BIPV Building Rooftops Building Rooftops Crystalline Cathodic Telecommunications Cathodic CPV Systems Silicon Cells Telecommunications Protection CPV Systems Protection and Modules Water Pumps Water Pumps Solar Parks Solar Parks Road Signs Road Signs Marine Buoys Marine Buoys Rural Electrification Rural Electrification Battery Rechargers Textiles Textiles • CIGS is a thin-film solar cell Thin Film Battery Rechargers and Fabrics Residential and Commercial Residential and Commercial and Fabrics MEMS/Sensors MEMS/Sensors Semiconductor Building Rooftops Building Rooftops Products Cells and Off-Grid Industrial and Consumer Off-Grid Industrial and Consumer /Service Modules Remote Power Electronics Remote Power Electronics Opportunities CPV Systems CPV Systems Satellites and Spacecraft Satellites and Spacecraft BIPV BIPV • The technology implicates a number Solar Parks Solar Parks of enabling technologies Battery Rechargers Battery Rechargers MEMS/Sensors MEMS/Sensors Organic and Textiles and Fabrics BIPV – Vacuum deposition Textiles and Fabrics BIPV Nano-Based Cells and Modules Remote Power Remote Power – Low cost nanoparticle synthesis and Consumer Electronics Consumer Electronics wet chemical deposition Thin-Film Semiconductors Thin-Film Semiconductors Dye-Sensitized Dye-Sensitized Flexible Flexible Polymer Polymer Vacuum Solar Cells Solar Cells Substrates Substrates Solar Cells Solar Cells Crystalline Silicon Wafers Crystalline Silicon Wafers Vacuum Deposition Deposition Thin-Film x-Si Thin-Film x-Si QD QD – Roll-to-roll processing Polymer Transparent Polymer Transparent Ribbon/Sheet Ribbon/Sheet III-V III-V Nonvacuum Processes Solar Cells Nonvacuum Processes Solar Cells Electrodes Technologies Electrodes Encapsulants Solar Cells Solar Cells Thermo-PV Thermo-PV – Rigid and flexible substrates Encapsulants Nanoparticle Manufacture Roll-Roll Processing Nanoparticle Manufacture Roll-Roll Processing Grid-Connected Grid-Connected Space Space Clothing Clothing – Encapsulation Automotive Automotive Military Military Markets Off-Grid and Industrial and Remote Power Off-Grid and Industrial and Remote Power Consumer Electronics Consumer Electronics Source: SRIC-BI CIGS = Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide 24
  • Additional Research Created a More In-Depth Profile and Then Client-Focused Industry Roadmap • The industry roadmaps contains the major approaches • It forms the basis for selecting a pathway 25
  • Profiling is a Major Input to the Roadmap: In This Case it Also Covered Market Development and Costing 26
  • From the Industry-Level Roadmap, Different Pathways Were Developed 27
  • Further Research Was Undertaken to Help the Selection of Strategic Options • In this project, each of the strategic options, or pathway options, was accompanied by the following: — A description of the strategic focus — Associated risk profile — Short and medium term R&D goals — Potential alliance partners — Areas to monitor 28
  • Roadmapping Example: Waste Heat Recovery 29
  • Project Outline: Automotive Waste Heat Recovery • “For a typical car with an internal combustion engine, around 70% to 80% of energy produced by the engine is wasted as heat…” • The client, an automotive company, wanted to develop an industry roadmap and strategy (pathway) for waste heat recovery (e.g. exhaust) • The client wanted to better understand the competitive environment and state-of-the-art, and commissioned SRIC-BI to: — Study activities and approaches to heat-recovery technologies — Understand the current industry view of the commercialization of heat- recovery systems — Develop an industry-level roadmap that linked product development with functional needs and enabling technologies. 30
  • Patent Analysis Can Be an Input to Analyzing Players and Technology Approaches • Web and Literature Review. Conducting a literature search to build up a picture of key trends, developments; players active in the technology area; identification of industry experts • Qualitative Patent Search. Conducting a search of patents to identify technologies and players active in the area of heat recovery • Quantitative Analysis of Papers and Patents. To provide an indication of the relative activity within each technology approach. 31
  • Creating Profiles of Key Players Helps Understand the Competition • Player profiles can help in terms of understanding technology and market development as an input to the roadmap 32
  • Understanding Industry Viewpoints • Selected industry experts and companies can then be short listed for interview to gain further inputs to the roadmap development 33
  • 34
  • 35
  • Technology Roadmapping Summary Industry-Level Roadmap Development Industry roadmaps set Now 2 Years 5 Years Business Need Competition Market out the landscape, Considerations showing the options Products/Services A B C or paths that can be Features/Functions A B C taken Technologies 1 2 3 4 Company Roadmap (Pathway) The pathway sets out Now 2 Years This way This way 5 Years Business Need Competition No Market No the route to be taken, Yes Yes Considerations and highlights the Product/Service A B C Pathway things that need to be Functional monitored to stay on Requirements A B C Milestone course This way No Technologies 1 2 3 4 Yes Signpost Without action and innovation you won’t get anywhere! 36