1. From Explorer™ to Custom
Roadmapping and Action Plans
Trieste: November 26, 2008
Robert Thomas, Ph.D.
Principal
SRI Consulting Business Intelligence
http://www.sric-bi.com
2. SRI Consulting Business Intelligence
Services Address Representative
Markets and Technology Clients
Idea Strategy Strategy
Intelligence Generation Development Execution • Aramco • Microsoft
CONSULTING SERVICES • Auto Mfgs: US, Japan, • Nalco
EU
Opportunity Discovery • NRC (Canada)
• Best Buy
Roadmapping • Chevron • PDVSA
Scanning, Monitoring, and Other Intelligence Solutions • Consumer Products • SABIC
Scenario Planning/Strategy • Consumer Electronics • Samsung
Commercialization • Eastman Chemical • Statoil
Consumer Demand
• ExxonMobil
Technology and Market Assessment • Shell
• Intevep
• TVA
SYNDICATED RESEARCH PROGRAMS • ITRI
Explorer • U.S. Government
• L’Oreal
Scan™ • Motorola • Weyerhaeuser
Virtual Worlds
Consumer Financial Decisions
VALS™ • Syndicated Research
• More than 300 clients worldwide
Key services and programs
1
3. Outline of Presentation
• What are technology roadmaps?
• How do I make one?
• What would I do if I had one?
• Ways to get started: Explorer to custom technology roadmapping
• Some SRIC-BI project examples
2
4. What Do We Mean by a Technology Roadmap?
The analogy with an actual road map is still the best one
• A road map sets out the landscape
• It shows us a number of different paths we
can take depending on the starting point
• Too many paths for any one person or
company to take simultaneously
• We must make a choice depending on where
we want to go and our objectives
• The pathway we end up choosing will depend
on a number of external and internal
considerations
• Considerations such as:
the traffic
the enabling
technology
the weather
3
5. Where You Want to Go Will Obviously Affect the
Best Route
• There may be multiple pathways to get to the same or very similar
destinations
• Some pathways may be shorter or better than others
• Personal, business or external considerations will affect the choice
4
6. Once the Route is Chosen We Need to Monitor Progress
and Events to Decide if the Pathway Remains Correct
• Monitoring everything is neither useful or possible…
• …But monitoring progress along the route
and potential events is advisable
• Knowing what to monitor and the signs to
look for becomes a key capability
• Knowing……….
What the showstoppers are!
When a change in technology is required
How to resolve conflicting signs
5
7. Technology Roadmaps Are Not Conceptually
Different from a Road Map…
• Technology roadmaps should set out the landscape: the status and direction of an
opportunity, an application and the associated technologies.
• Time is the major axis and a key uncertainty: roadmaps can no more predict the
future than crystal balls, but they can set out the possibilities
• The industry-level roadmap shows the possible paths that individual organizations
(as well as their products, services and technologies) might take in developing the
opportunity
• A company pathway sets out what an organization is going to do
Now 2 Years 5 Years
Product/Service A B C • Milestones help plot the pathway
and are used to measure
Functional progress
Requirements A B C
Technologies 1 2 3 4
Pathway Milestone
6
8. …In Reality, Roadmaps Can Take Many Different
Forms
• Some of the most well-known technology roadmaps are the result of widespread industry
consensus
• The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors sets out major device-level
functional requirements, the technology options and roadblocks
• The ITRS is designed to keep Moore’s law on track and is not geared to specific user
applications and markets
• These types of roadmaps are particularly designed with milestone technology planning in mind.
Technology
Time
Functionality
or metric
Source: ITRS Unknown solutions: roadblocks
7
9. At SRIC-BI, We Focus on What We Call Strategic
Technology Roadmaps
The word “strategic” is frequently used: what do we mean by it here?
• We mean that the roadmap is
more than just about technology Industry-Level Roadmap Development
• The roadmap must outline the Now 2 Years 5 Years
products and services, within the Business Need Competition Market
opportunity, that businesses or Considerations
consumers would actually buy
Products/Services A B C
• It must relate product and services
to functional requirements and/or Features/Functions
A B C
technologies
• It must describe key business Technologies 1 2 3 4
considerations that help us decide
what is the right pathway
8
10. How To Make a Technology Roadmap: First
Create a Profile of the Opportunity
• First and foremost, creating a technology roadmap requires industry research to
describe the opportunity:
— What is market need and the likely evolution of products and services?
— What are the enabling technologies, and how might they evolve?
— What are the critical success factors and other business considerations?
— What are the key uncertainties?
• In project work, SRIC-BI typically uses a standard profile template
• Where possible, industry interviews should help gauge the product/service
evolution and technology hurdles.
ANALYSIS
OPPORTUNITY Business Attractiveness Key Success Factors
DESCRIPTION • Potential revenue • Business model
• Need • Profitability • Alliances/partners
• Products/services • Competition • Level of service required
• Markets • Regulations • Technology
• Value chain • Entry barriers • Channels
• R&D requirements • Manufacturing
• Risk • Marketing
9
11. From Profile to Technology Roadmap
• The various elements of the profile become the major inputs to the roadmap
• In reality, creating the roadmap may require further research about product,
market and technology progression and timing
• Creating a timeline helps ensure products do not occur before the enabling
technologies are ready!!!
Products/Services
& Functions
Products/ Services 1
Products/ Services 2
Products/Services
A B C
A B C
Industry-Level Roadmap Development
Necessary Now 2 Years 5 Years
Features/Functions Business Need Competition Market
1..…….
Considerations
Opportunity 2.……..
3. ….
Profile Products/Services A B C
Features/Functions
Technologies & A B C
Business Considerations
Technologies 1 2 3 4
Technologies
1..…..
2..…..
3..….
Business
Considerations
1..…..
2..…..
3. ….
10
12. Example Industry-Level Roadmap
• Roadmap for a Japanese multinational IT company in the area of Integrated
Enterprise Information Systems
• Accompanying tables describe the products, services, functions, technologies and
business considerations
Industry Roadmap
Now N-1 1 Yr 1-3 3 Yrs 3-5 5 Yrs 5-7 7 Yrs 7-
Business B1 B3 B5 B48 B50 B52 B54 B56 B57
Considerations B2 B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55
B6 B11
Products/ B7 B9
B62 B64 B67 B12 B15
B16
Services B8 B60
B10 B17 B75
B77
B58 B59 B61 B63 B66 B69 B71 B74
B68
B14 B70 B72
B96
B105 B27
Function B82
B85
B92 B94
B97 B101
B79 B83 B89 B19 B95 B22
B86 B21
B18 B90 B93 B20 B99 B103
B80 B87 B106
B100 B104
B84 B91
B42
Technologies B108 B32 B36 B88
B44
B40
B28 B33 B110 B112 B45
B41 B116 B117
B29 B34 B37 B113
B23
B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26
B31 B38 B115
B39
11
13. From Industry Roadmap to Company Pathway
• First and foremost, industry roadmaps set out multiple pathways and options
• Just like a travel road map, they make us confront the decisions that need to be taken to move
forward: to get from A to B
• When creating a company-specific roadmap or pathway, the business considerations set out
what we need to consider to make the decision
• Business consideration examples might include:
— A missing core competence
— A market uncertainty
— A competitive threat or critical success factor
Company Roadmap (Pathway) • The company pathway and
Now 2 Years 5 Years milestones chart the
Business
This way
No
This way
No company’s course
Need Competition Yes
Market Yes
Considerations • Signposts are set up to make
sure we are on track and don’t
Product/Service A B C need to change course
Pathway
• Programs like SRIC-BI’s
Functional Explorer can help with
Requirements A B C
Milestone signpost monitoring
This way
No
Technologies 1 2 3 4 Yes
Signpost
12
14. Roadmap Development Recap
ct
oj e pl e
Pr m
a
Ex
Industry Roadmap
Now N-1 1 Yr 1-3 3 Yrs 3-5 5 Yrs 5-7 7 Yrs 7- Industry Roadmaps
Business B1 B3 B5 B48 B50 B52 B54 B56 B57
Considerations B2 B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55
B6 B11
• Set out key business considerations,
Products/ B62 B64 B67 B12 B15
Services
B7
B8
B58
B9
B59
B60
B61
B10
B63 B66
B68
B17
B69 B71 B74
B75
B77
B16
products/services, functions, and technologies for
B14 B70
a potential opportunity for commercialization
B72
B96
B105 B27
Function B82
B85
B92 B94
B97 B101
B79 B83 B89 B19 B95 B22
B86 B21
B80 B18
B84
B87 B90
B91
B93 B20 B99
B100
B103
B104
B106
• Provide a basis for selected strategy (path)
B42
Technologies B108 B32 B36 B88
B44
B40
B28 B33 B110 B112 B45
B41 B116 B117
B29 B34 B37 B113
B23
B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26
B31 B38 B115
B39
Company Path
N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-
Company Path
Business Now 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs
B1 B3 B5 B48 B50 B52 B54 B56 B57
Considerations B2
(Signposts)
B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55
• Selected strategy elements--business
Products/
Services
B6
B7
B8
B11
B9
B200 B60
B62
B10
B64 B67
B17
B12 B15
B75
B16
B77
considerations, products/services, functions, and
B58 B59 B61 B63 B66 B69 B71 B74
technologies over time
B68
B14 B70 B72
B96
B27
Function B82
B85
B92 B94
B97 B101 B105
B22
• Describes important business considerations and
B79 B83 B89 B19 B95
B86 B21
B18 B90 B93 B20 B99 B103
B80 B87 B106
B100 B104
B84 B91
Technologies B108 B32
B28 B33
B36
B110 B112
B88
B41 B116
B44
B117
B40 B42
B45
products/services, etc. to be created
B29 B34 B37 B113
B23
B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26
B31 B38
B39
B115
• Identifies strategic signposts to be monitored
13
15. Now I Have a Roadmap, What Do I Do With it?
• Company roadmaps are only a description of the organization’s path; to
be useful they must lead to action
• Describing, selecting and carrying out the action steps is more
challenging than charting a path, but ultimately that is where the value
lies
• A road map analogy again:
— A road map helps you chart your journey
— An action plan sets out:
– Checking the weather before you start
– Filling up the car with gas
– Putting the snow tires on
– Not forgetting to bring: the map, the children, the dog………
— Some actions may be more of a priority than others!
14
16. Action Roadmaps are Essential (Plans Without Actions
Have No Value)
• Action roadmaps display and describe the basic actions required to
execute the pathway (strategy).
• Priority (short term) actions are highlighted.
• Key monitoring elements and signposts are described
Action Roadmap
Now 1 Years 3 Years 10 Years
5 Years
Business B3
Considerations B1 ple
(signposts) B2 Exam
B4
P1
Products/Services P3
P2 P4 P5
Company Roadmap Functions/ T1 T4
Now 2 Years
This way This way
5 Years
Technologies & T2 T5
Business
Considerations
Need Competition
No
Yes
Market
No
Yes
Other Capabilities T3 T7
T6
Product/Service A B C
Pathway
Functional Continuous monitoring or improvement
Requirements A B C Priority Actions
Milestone
Leads to next generation
This way
No B1: Verify need and initial target
Technologies 1 2 3 4 Yes
Signpost
B2: Monitor key threats
P1: Design and bundle initial product/service
P2: Test customer acceptance
15
17. Roadmapping Uses: A Focus on Business Strategy and
Product/Service Development
• The ultimate aim of developing roadmaps and action plans will vary by
company and project, but two obvious different cases exist:
1. Using the roadmap principally for business strategy, entry options and
product/service development
2. Using the roadmap for developing a technology strategy or portfolio
• In the first case, the potential product/service pathways are critical, as is
a close examination of the business considerations
— Business considerations will capture threats from competition and key
business challenges, organizational issues, or consumer acceptance
— Actions might be: the need to test consumer acceptance of products; alliance
or acquisition analysis; the need to develop internal capabilities such as a
service organization
— In such cases as this, the technologies may be readily acquired, or the
necessary technology alliances can be easily formed
16
18. Roadmapping Uses: Selecting a Technology Portfolio
• For technology-oriented organizations (government labs, corporate research
departments), the focus for roadmaps and actions may be on developing
future technology concepts and other capabilities
• Multiple product/service roadmaps can serve as the basis for developing a
technology portfolio
• Actions may relate to filling key capabilities, licensing and R&D partnering
Technology Concept Analysis and Selection
Multiple Product/Service Roadmaps
Products &
Product b
Product d
Product a
Product c
Product e
Service b
Service d
Service a
Service c
Service e
Product f
Service f
Industry Level Roadmap 1 Services
Industry Level Roadmap 2
Industry Level Roadmap 3 Techs &
5 Roadmap 4
Industry Level Years
Now 10 Years
Industry Level RoadmapYears
Now 5 Years 10 5 Other capabilities
Industry Level Roadmap 6
Now 5 Years 10 Years
Products/Services A Now B 5 Years C 10 Years
Technology a X X X
Products/Services A Now B 5 Years C 10 Years
Products/Services A Now B 5 YearsC 10 Years
Products/Services A B C Technology b X X
Features/Functions
Products/Services A BA BC C
Features/Functions
Products/ServicesA BA BC C Technology c X X X X X X X
Features/Functions A B C
Features/Functions A B C
Features/Functions
1 2 A 3 B 4 C Technology e X X X X X X
Technologies Features/Functions
1 2 A 3 B4 C
Technologies 1 2 3 4
Technologies
Technologies 1 Distribution Channels 3
2 4
Other Capabilities
Technologies 1 Distribution Channels 3
2
Customer acceptance 4 Capability 1 X X
Other Capabilities
Technologies 1Distribution Channels 3
Customer2
assessment system
acceptance 4
Other Capabilities Distribution Channels
assessment system
Customer acceptance
Other Capabilities assessment Channels
Distribution system
Customer acceptance Capability 2 X X X X X X X
Other Capabilities Distribution Channels
assessment system
Customer acceptance
Other Capabilities assessment system
Customer acceptance Capability 3 X X X X X X
assessment system
Capability 4 X X X X X X X
17
19. Roadmap Development Recap ple
m
E xa
Industry Roadmap
Now N-1 1 Yr 1-3 3 Yrs 3-5 5 Yrs 5-7 7 Yrs 7- Industry Roadmaps
Business B1 B3 B5 B48 B50 B52 B54 B56 B57
Considerations B2 B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55
B6 B11
• Set out key business considerations,
Products/ B62 B64 B67 B12 B15
Services
B7
B8
B58
B9
B59
B60
B61
B10
B63 B66
B68
B17
B69 B71 B74
B75
B77
B16
products/services, functions, and technologies for
B14 B70
a potential opportunity for commercialization
B72
B96
B105 B27
Function B82
B85
B92 B94
B97 B101
B79 B83 B89 B19 B95 B22
B86 B21
B80 B18
B84
B87 B90
B91
B93 B20 B99
B100
B103
B104
B106
• Provide a basis for selected strategy (path)
B42
Technologies B108 B32 B36 B88
B44
B40
B28 B33 B110 B112 B45
B41 B116 B117
B29 B34 B37 B113
B23
B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26
B31 B38 B115
B39
N-1 1-3
Company Path
3-5 5-7 7-
Company Path
Business Now 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs
Considerations B2
(Signposts)
B1 B3
B4
B5
B47
B48
B49
B50
B51 B53
B52 B54
B55
B56 B57
• Selected strategy elements--business
Products/
Services
B6
B7
B8
B11
B9
B200 B60
B62
B10
B64 B67
B17
B12 B15
B75
B16 considerations, products/services, functions, and
B77
technologies over time
B58 B59 B61 B63 B66 B69 B71 B74
B68
B14 B70 B72
B96
B27
Function B82
B85
B92 B94
B97 B101 B105
B79
B80
B83
B18
B84
B86
B87
B91
B89
B90
B19
B93
B95
B20 B99
B100
B21
B103
B104
B22
B106 • Describes important business considerations and
Technologies B108 B32
B28 B33
B36
B110 B112
B88
B44
B40 B42
B45
products/services, etc. to be created
B41 B116 B117
B29 B34 B37 B113
B23
B111 B114
• Identifies strategic signposts to be monitored
B30 B35 B25 B118 B26
B31 B38 B115
B39
Actions
Now 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Actions
Business Z1 Z4
Considerations
(Signposts)
Z2
Z3 • Displays and describes required actions to
Products/
Services Z5
Z6
Z9 Z10
execute company pathways
Z7
Z8
• Highlights priority actions
Functions/ Z11 Z15
Technologies Z14
Z16 Z18
Z12
Z13 Z17
18
20. Outline of Presentation
• What are technology roadmaps?
• How do I make one?
• What would I do if I had one?
• Ways to get started: Explorer to custom technology roadmapping
• Some project examples from SRIC-BI
19
21. What Does a Custom Roadmap Mean in the
Context of Explorer?
• Explorer is a syndicated program, with a wide and diverse client base
• The Explorer charts of technology commercialization are designed for
breadth
— Explorer highlights the commercial implications, from technology
development, for many products, industries and markets
— Technology maps often combine many different enabling technologies
• In contrast, a custom roadmap is created with an individual organization
in mind
• However, Explorer’s research and technology maps are a good basis
from which to develop a customized roadmap
— To aid in developing the opportunity profiles
— To identify critical enabling technologies and inhibitors
— To assist with player profiling that is often an important feature of such
projects
— To identify important areas to monitor
20