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From Explorer™ to Custom
Roadmapping and Action Plans
       Trieste: November 26, 2008

              Robert Thomas, Ph.D.
                    Principal
       SRI Consulting Business Intelligence




                                      http://www.sric-bi.com
SRI Consulting Business Intelligence

             Services Address                                                 Representative
           Markets and Technology                                                Clients
                       Idea          Strategy           Strategy
  Intelligence      Generation     Development         Execution   • Aramco                        • Microsoft

  CONSULTING SERVICES                                              • Auto Mfgs: US, Japan,         • Nalco
                                                                     EU
                     Opportunity Discovery                                                         • NRC (Canada)
                                                                   • Best Buy
                                   Roadmapping                     • Chevron                       • PDVSA
      Scanning, Monitoring, and Other Intelligence Solutions       • Consumer Products             • SABIC
                 Scenario Planning/Strategy                        • Consumer Electronics          • Samsung
                                 Commercialization                 • Eastman Chemical              • Statoil
                                 Consumer Demand
                                                                   • ExxonMobil
           Technology and Market Assessment                                                        • Shell
                                                                   • Intevep
                                                                                                   • TVA
  SYNDICATED RESEARCH PROGRAMS                                     • ITRI
                  Explorer                                                                         • U.S. Government
                                                                   • L’Oreal
                   Scan™                                           • Motorola                      • Weyerhaeuser
                              Virtual Worlds
                                  Consumer Financial Decisions
                                         VALS™                                 • Syndicated Research
                                                                               • More than 300 clients worldwide




           Key services and programs


                                                                                                                       1
Outline of Presentation


  • What are technology roadmaps?
  • How do I make one?
  • What would I do if I had one?
  • Ways to get started: Explorer to custom technology roadmapping
  • Some SRIC-BI project examples




                                                                     2
What Do We Mean by a Technology Roadmap?
            The analogy with an actual road map is still the best one

•   A road map sets out the landscape
•   It shows us a number of different paths we
    can take depending on the starting point
•   Too many paths for any one person or
    company to take simultaneously
•   We must make a choice depending on where
    we want to go and our objectives
•   The pathway we end up choosing will depend
    on a number of external and internal
    considerations
•   Considerations such as:


                                   the traffic
                               the enabling
                               technology


                                        the weather



                                                                        3
Where You Want to Go Will Obviously Affect the
Best Route
 • There may be multiple pathways to get to the same or very similar
   destinations
 • Some pathways may be shorter or better than others
 • Personal, business or external considerations will affect the choice




                                                                          4
Once the Route is Chosen We Need to Monitor Progress
and Events to Decide if the Pathway Remains Correct


  • Monitoring everything is neither useful or possible…


                                      •   …But monitoring progress along the route
                                          and potential events is advisable
                                      •   Knowing what to monitor and the signs to
                                          look for becomes a key capability
                                      •   Knowing……….



                                                What the showstoppers are!




                                            When a change in technology is required

                                             How to resolve conflicting signs


                                                                                      5
Technology Roadmaps Are Not Conceptually
Different from a Road Map…

  •   Technology roadmaps should set out the landscape: the status and direction of an
      opportunity, an application and the associated technologies.
  •   Time is the major axis and a key uncertainty: roadmaps can no more predict the
      future than crystal balls, but they can set out the possibilities
  •   The industry-level roadmap shows the possible paths that individual organizations
      (as well as their products, services and technologies) might take in developing the
      opportunity
  •   A company pathway sets out what an organization is going to do


                           Now       2 Years         5 Years


         Product/Service         A        B           C        •   Milestones help plot the pathway
                                                                   and are used to measure
         Functional                                                progress
         Requirements            A        B            C



         Technologies      1         2          3          4




                           Pathway       Milestone

                                                                                                      6
…In Reality, Roadmaps Can Take Many Different
Forms

      •   Some of the most well-known technology roadmaps are the result of widespread industry
          consensus
      •   The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors sets out major device-level
          functional requirements, the technology options and roadblocks
      •   The ITRS is designed to keep Moore’s law on track and is not geared to specific user
          applications and markets
      •   These types of roadmaps are particularly designed with milestone technology planning in mind.

                                                                                      Technology
                                                                                                       Time




Functionality
or metric




                   Source: ITRS                                                Unknown solutions: roadblocks

                                                                                                               7
At SRIC-BI, We Focus on What We Call Strategic
Technology Roadmaps

    The word “strategic” is frequently used: what do we mean by it here?


•   We mean that the roadmap is
    more than just about technology                 Industry-Level Roadmap Development

•   The roadmap must outline the                                 Now         2 Years       5 Years
    products and services, within the     Business             Need Competition   Market
    opportunity, that businesses or       Considerations
    consumers would actually buy
                                          Products/Services            A          B         C
•   It must relate product and services
    to functional requirements and/or     Features/Functions
                                                                       A          B         C
    technologies
•   It must describe key business         Technologies           1           2         3        4

    considerations that help us decide
    what is the right pathway




                                                                                                     8
How To Make a Technology Roadmap: First
Create a Profile of the Opportunity

  •     First and foremost, creating a technology roadmap requires industry research to
        describe the opportunity:
         —    What is market need and the likely evolution of products and services?
         —    What are the enabling technologies, and how might they evolve?
         —    What are the critical success factors and other business considerations?
         —    What are the key uncertainties?
  •     In project work, SRIC-BI typically uses a standard profile template
  •     Where possible, industry interviews should help gauge the product/service
        evolution and technology hurdles.

                                                                   ANALYSIS
       OPPORTUNITY                       Business Attractiveness       Key Success Factors
       DESCRIPTION                        • Potential revenue           • Business model
  •   Need                                • Profitability               • Alliances/partners
  •   Products/services                   • Competition                 • Level of service required
  •   Markets                             • Regulations                 • Technology
  •   Value chain                         • Entry barriers              • Channels
                                          • R&D requirements            • Manufacturing
                                          • Risk                        • Marketing


                                                                                                      9
From Profile to Technology Roadmap
    •   The various elements of the profile become the major inputs to the roadmap
    •   In reality, creating the roadmap may require further research about product,
        market and technology progression and timing
    •   Creating a timeline helps ensure products do not occur before the enabling
        technologies are ready!!!


                            Products/Services
                               & Functions

                          Products/ Services 1
                          Products/ Services 2
                           Products/Services
                            A          B    C
                             A          B       C

                                                              Industry-Level Roadmap Development

                          Necessary                                        Now         2 Years       5 Years
                          Features/Functions        Business             Need Competition   Market
                          1..…….
                                                    Considerations
 Opportunity              2.……..
                          3. ….
   Profile                                          Products/Services            A          B         C


                                                    Features/Functions
                             Technologies &                                      A          B         C
                         Business Considerations
                                                    Technologies           1           2         3        4
                          Technologies
                          1..…..
                          2..…..
                          3..….
                              Business
                              Considerations
                              1..…..
                              2..…..
                              3. ….

                                                                                                               10
Example Industry-Level Roadmap
 •   Roadmap for a Japanese multinational IT company in the area of Integrated
     Enterprise Information Systems
 •   Accompanying tables describe the products, services, functions, technologies and
     business considerations



                                                                Industry Roadmap
                 Now               N-1              1 Yr                 1-3            3 Yrs                 3-5            5 Yrs   5-7   7 Yrs   7-
     Business    B1     B3     B5          B48     B50    B52    B54 B56        B57
Considerations   B2     B4     B47         B49     B51 B53       B55



                 B6      B11
     Products/   B7      B9
                                                     B62        B64             B67               B12                          B15
                                                                                                                                                   B16
      Services   B8                B60
                                                     B10                        B17                                            B75
                                                                                                                                               B77
                 B58   B59                   B61     B63        B66                   B69               B71           B74
                                                                          B68
                                                                        B14                 B70         B72

                                                            B96
                                                                               B105                                   B27
     Function          B82
                             B85
                                            B92    B94
                                                           B97         B101
                 B79   B83           B89     B19    B95                          B22
                             B86                                       B21
                       B18           B90    B93     B20    B99          B103
                 B80         B87                                                 B106
                                                           B100        B104
                       B84         B91

                                                                                            B42
 Technologies    B108 B32    B36 B88
                                                                         B44
                                                                                  B40
                 B28   B33   B110 B112                                                                                 B45
                                                    B41      B116         B117
                 B29   B34   B37 B113
                                                                                                                B23
                 B30   B35   B111 B114                            B25     B118                                               B26
                 B31         B38    B115
                             B39



                                                                                                                                                         11
From Industry Roadmap to Company Pathway
   •   First and foremost, industry roadmaps set out multiple pathways and options
   •   Just like a travel road map, they make us confront the decisions that need to be taken to move
       forward: to get from A to B
   •   When creating a company-specific roadmap or pathway, the business considerations set out
       what we need to consider to make the decision
   •   Business consideration examples might include:
        — A missing core competence
        — A market uncertainty
        — A competitive threat or critical success factor

                    Company Roadmap (Pathway)                                                              •   The company pathway and
                    Now                 2 Years                           5 Years                              milestones chart the
Business
                                        This way

                                            No
                                                               This way

                                                                   No                                          company’s course
                  Need    Competition      Yes
                                                       Market     Yes




Considerations                                                                                             •   Signposts are set up to make
                                                                                                               sure we are on track and don’t
Product/Service           A                        B                       C                                   need to change course
                                                                                               Pathway
                                                                                                           •   Programs like SRIC-BI’s
Functional                                                                                                     Explorer can help with
Requirements              A                        B                       C
                                                                                               Milestone       signpost monitoring
                                                                                    This way

                                                                                        No




Technologies        1              2                       3                   4       Yes
                                                                                               Signpost

                                                                                                                                                12
Roadmap Development Recap
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ct
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     oj e pl e
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Pr m
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ex
                                                                              Industry Roadmap
                  Now                      N-1                   1 Yr                      1-3                3 Yrs                3-5            5 Yrs        5-7    7 Yrs        7-    Industry Roadmaps
     Business      B1          B3       B5         B48         B50     B52     B54 B56            B57

Considerations     B2          B4      B47         B49         B51 B53         B55



                   B6           B11
                                                                                                                                                                                          •   Set out key business considerations,
     Products/                                                   B62          B64                B67                   B12                          B15

      Services
                   B7
                   B8
                   B58
                                B9

                              B59
                                           B60
                                                        B61
                                                                 B10
                                                                  B63         B66
                                                                                           B68
                                                                                                  B17
                                                                                                         B69                 B71            B74
                                                                                                                                                        B75
                                                                                                                                                                              B77
                                                                                                                                                                                   B16
                                                                                                                                                                                              products/services, functions, and technologies for
                                                                                         B14                    B70

                                                                                                                                                                                              a potential opportunity for commercialization
                                                                                                                             B72

                                                                             B96
                                                                                                 B105                                      B27
     Function                 B82
                                     B85
                                                       B92      B94
                                                                            B97      B101
                   B79        B83            B89        B19      B95                               B22
                                     B86                                             B21
                   B80    B18
                              B84
                                     B87     B90
                                           B91
                                                       B93       B20        B99
                                                                            B100
                                                                                      B103
                                                                                     B104
                                                                                                   B106
                                                                                                                                                                                          •   Provide a basis for selected strategy (path)
                                                                                                                B42
 Technologies      B108 B32          B36     B88
                                                                                          B44
                                                                                                    B40
                   B28        B33    B110 B112                                                                                              B45
                                                                 B41        B116           B117
                   B29        B34    B37 B113
                                                                                                                                     B23
                   B30        B35    B111 B114                                     B25     B118                                                   B26
                   B31               B38     B115
                                     B39




                                                                                                 Company Path
                                             N-1                                           1-3                                     3-5                        5-7             7-
                                                                                                                                                                                         Company Path
      Business Now                                                1 Yr                                         3 Yrs                              5 Yrs              7 Yrs
                B1              B3         B5          B48      B50     B52        B54    B56     B57
 Considerations B2
    (Signposts)
                                B4         B47         B49      B51 B53            B55
                                                                                                                                                                                          •   Selected strategy elements--business
       Products/
        Services
                        B6
                        B7
                        B8
                                  B11
                                  B9
                                 B200        B60
                                                                  B62
                                                                  B10
                                                                               B64                B67
                                                                                                  B17
                                                                                                                       B12                          B15
                                                                                                                                                    B75
                                                                                                                                                                              B16
                                                                                                                                                                             B77
                                                                                                                                                                                              considerations, products/services, functions, and
                        B58     B59                      B61          B63     B66                        B69                 B71           B74

                                                                                                                                                                                              technologies over time
                                                                                            B68
                                                                                          B14                    B70         B72

                                                                             B96
                                                                                                                                           B27
       Function                B82
                                      B85
                                                         B92    B94
                                                                            B97          B101    B105
                                                                                                    B22

                                                                                                                                                                                          •   Describes important business considerations and
                    B79        B83               B89      B19     B95
                                      B86                                                B21
                               B18               B90     B93      B20       B99           B103
                    B80               B87                                                          B106
                                                                            B100         B104
                               B84           B91

   Technologies      B108 B32
                     B28       B33
                                      B36
                                      B110 B112
                                                 B88

                                                                  B41        B116
                                                                                           B44
                                                                                            B117
                                                                                                        B40     B42

                                                                                                                                            B45
                                                                                                                                                                                              products/services, etc. to be created
                     B29       B34    B37 B113
                                                                                                                                     B23
                     B30       B35    B111 B114                                     B25     B118                                                  B26
                     B31              B38
                                      B39
                                                B115
                                                                                                                                                                                          •   Identifies strategic signposts to be monitored



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   13
Now I Have a Roadmap, What Do I Do With it?

  • Company roadmaps are only a description of the organization’s path; to
    be useful they must lead to action
  • Describing, selecting and carrying out the action steps is more
    challenging than charting a path, but ultimately that is where the value
    lies


  • A road map analogy again:
      — A road map helps you chart your journey
      — An action plan sets out:
         – Checking the weather before you start
         – Filling up the car with gas
         – Putting the snow tires on
         – Not forgetting to bring: the map, the children, the dog………

      — Some actions may be more of a priority than others!


                                                                               14
Action Roadmaps are Essential (Plans Without Actions
      Have No Value)
               • Action roadmaps display and describe the basic actions required to
                 execute the pathway (strategy).
               • Priority (short term) actions are highlighted.
               • Key monitoring elements and signposts are described
                                                                                                                                                                  Action Roadmap
                                                                                                                                 Now               1 Years             3 Years                             10 Years
                                                                                                                                                                                            5 Years

                                                                                                           Business                                   B3
                                                                                                           Considerations               B1                                                                    ple
                                                                                                           (signposts)                    B2                                                           Exam
                                                                                                                                                                       B4
                                                                                                                                         P1
                                                                                                           Products/Services                                 P3
                                                                                                                                              P2                            P4                        P5

                         Company Roadmap                                                                   Functions/                    T1              T4
                    Now                 2 Years
                                        This way               This way
                                                                          5 Years
                                                                                                           Technologies &                     T2         T5
Business
Considerations
                  Need    Competition
                                            No

                                           Yes
                                                       Market
                                                                   No

                                                                  Yes


                                                                                                           Other Capabilities                   T3                T7
                                                                                                                                                         T6
Product/Service           A                        B                       C
                                                                                               Pathway

Functional                                                                                                            Continuous monitoring or improvement
Requirements              A                        B                       C                                                                                             Priority Actions
                                                                                               Milestone
                                                                                                                      Leads to next generation
                                                                                    This way

                                                                                        No                                                                              B1: Verify need and initial target
Technologies        1              2                       3                   4       Yes
                                                                                               Signpost
                                                                                                                                                                        B2: Monitor key threats
                                                                                                                                                                        P1: Design and bundle initial product/service
                                                                                                                                                                        P2: Test customer acceptance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        15
Roadmapping Uses: A Focus on Business Strategy and
Product/Service Development

  • The ultimate aim of developing roadmaps and action plans will vary by
    company and project, but two obvious different cases exist:
      1.   Using the roadmap principally for business strategy, entry options and
           product/service development
      2.   Using the roadmap for developing a technology strategy or portfolio


  • In the first case, the potential product/service pathways are critical, as is
    a close examination of the business considerations
      — Business considerations will capture threats from competition and key
        business challenges, organizational issues, or consumer acceptance
      — Actions might be: the need to test consumer acceptance of products; alliance
        or acquisition analysis; the need to develop internal capabilities such as a
        service organization
      — In such cases as this, the technologies may be readily acquired, or the
        necessary technology alliances can be easily formed



                                                                                       16
Roadmapping Uses: Selecting a Technology Portfolio

  •        For technology-oriented organizations (government labs, corporate research
           departments), the focus for roadmaps and actions may be on developing
           future technology concepts and other capabilities
  •        Multiple product/service roadmaps can serve as the basis for developing a
           technology portfolio
  •        Actions may relate to filling key capabilities, licensing and R&D partnering

                                                                                                          Technology Concept Analysis and Selection
           Multiple Product/Service Roadmaps
                                                                                                        Products &




                                                                                                                                 Product b




                                                                                                                                                         Product d
                                                                                                                     Product a




                                                                                                                                             Product c




                                                                                                                                                                     Product e




                                                                                                                                                                                                         Service b




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Service d
                                                                                                                                                                                             Service a




                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Service c




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Service e
                                                                                                                                                                                 Product f




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Service f
                    Industry Level Roadmap 1                                                              Services
                       Industry Level Roadmap 2
                          Industry Level Roadmap 3                                            Techs &
                                            5 Roadmap 4
                            Industry Level Years
                               Now                              10 Years
                               Industry Level RoadmapYears
                                  Now            5 Years            10 5                      Other capabilities
                                   Industry Level Roadmap 6
                                     Now            5 Years            10 Years
      Products/Services             A Now B             5 Years C          10 Years
                                                                                              Technology a                                                              X                                               X           X
        Products/Services              A Now B                5 Years  C        10 Years
          Products/Services              A     Now B               5 YearsC        10 Years
             Products/Services              A               B                 C               Technology b              X                                                                                               X
      Features/Functions
                Products/Services A             BA                BC              C
        Features/Functions
                   Products/ServicesA               BA                BC              C       Technology c              X                       X                                   X           X           X           X                                   X
          Features/Functions             A             B                  C
             Features/Functions            A                B                 C
                Features/Functions
                               1           2 A 3                  B 4             C           Technology e                          X                       X           X           X           X                                               X
      Technologies Features/Functions
                                  1            2      A 3             B4              C
        Technologies                 1             2           3            4
          Technologies
             Technologies              1 Distribution Channels 3
                                                       2                        4
      Other Capabilities
                Technologies               1 Distribution Channels 3
                                                             2
                                                  Customer acceptance               4         Capability 1              X                                                                                               X
         Other Capabilities
                   Technologies                1Distribution Channels 3
                                                      Customer2
                                                  assessment system
                                                                  acceptance            4
           Other Capabilities                        Distribution Channels
                                                      assessment system
                                                          Customer acceptance
             Other Capabilities                           assessment Channels
                                                           Distribution system
                                                              Customer acceptance             Capability 2              X                       X                                   X           X           X           X                                   X
                 Other Capabilities                            Distribution Channels
                                                              assessment system
                                                                    Customer acceptance
                    Other Capabilities                              assessment system
                                                                        Customer acceptance   Capability 3                          X                       X                       X           X                                               X           X
                                                                        assessment system
                                                                                              Capability 4              X           X           X           X                                                           X           X           X




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     17
Roadmap Development Recap                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ple
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            m
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        E xa
                                                                               Industry Roadmap
                  Now                   N-1                    1 Yr                        1-3                 3 Yrs               3-5                5 Yrs         5-7    7 Yrs        7-    Industry Roadmaps
     Business     B1       B3       B5          B48           B50     B52       B54 B56           B57

Considerations    B2       B4       B47         B49           B51 B53           B55



                   B6       B11
                                                                                                                                                                                               •   Set out key business considerations,
     Products/                                                  B62            B64                B67                  B12                                 B15

      Services
                   B7
                   B8
                   B58
                            B9

                          B59
                                       B60
                                                    B61
                                                                B10
                                                                 B63           B66
                                                                                            B68
                                                                                                  B17
                                                                                                         B69                 B71               B74
                                                                                                                                                           B75
                                                                                                                                                                                    B77
                                                                                                                                                                                        B16
                                                                                                                                                                                                   products/services, functions, and technologies for
                                                                                          B14                    B70

                                                                                                                                                                                                   a potential opportunity for commercialization
                                                                                                                             B72

                                                                           B96
                                                                                                 B105                                          B27
     Function             B82
                                 B85
                                                    B92       B94
                                                                          B97         B101
                  B79     B83             B89        B19        B95                                B22
                                 B86                                                  B21
                  B80     B18
                          B84
                                 B87      B90
                                        B91
                                                    B93         B20       B99
                                                                          B100
                                                                                       B103
                                                                                      B104
                                                                                                   B106
                                                                                                                                                                                               •   Provide a basis for selected strategy (path)
                                                                                                                B42
 Technologies     B108 B32       B36      B88
                                                                                           B44
                                                                                                        B40
                   B28    B33    B110 B112                                                                                                      B45
                                                                B41        B116             B117
                   B29    B34    B37 B113
                                                                                                                                         B23
                   B30    B35    B111 B114                                       B25        B118                                                      B26
                   B31           B38     B115
                                 B39




                                          N-1                                              1-3
                                                                                                Company Path
                                                                                                                                   3-5                             5-7             7-
                                                                                                                                                                                              Company Path
      Business Now                                              1 Yr                                          3 Yrs                                   5 Yrs               7 Yrs
 Considerations B2
    (Signposts)
                B1          B3
                            B4
                                       B5
                                       B47
                                                   B48
                                                   B49
                                                               B50
                                                               B51 B53
                                                                         B52    B54
                                                                                B55
                                                                                          B56     B57
                                                                                                                                                                                               •   Selected strategy elements--business
      Products/
       Services
                    B6
                    B7
                    B8
                              B11
                              B9
                             B200        B60
                                                                 B62
                                                                 B10
                                                                               B64                B67
                                                                                                  B17
                                                                                                                       B12                             B15
                                                                                                                                                       B75
                                                                                                                                                                                   B16             considerations, products/services, functions, and
                                                                                                                                                                                  B77

                                                                                                                                                                                                   technologies over time
                    B58     B59                       B61           B63        B66                       B69                 B71               B74
                                                                                            B68
                                                                                          B14                   B70          B72

                                                                           B96
                                                                                                                                           B27
       Function            B82
                                  B85
                                                    B92        B94
                                                                          B97         B101       B105

                   B79
                   B80
                           B83
                           B18
                           B84
                                  B86
                                  B87
                                          B91
                                             B89
                                             B90
                                                      B19
                                                     B93
                                                                B95
                                                                B20       B99
                                                                          B100
                                                                                      B21
                                                                                       B103
                                                                                      B104
                                                                                                   B22

                                                                                                   B106                                                                                        •   Describes important business considerations and
   Technologies    B108 B32
                    B28    B33
                                  B36
                                  B110 B112
                                             B88
                                                                                           B44
                                                                                                        B40     B42

                                                                                                                                               B45
                                                                                                                                                                                                   products/services, etc. to be created
                                                                B41        B116             B117
                    B29    B34    B37 B113
                                                                                                                                     B23
                                  B111 B114

                                                                                                                                                                                               •   Identifies strategic signposts to be monitored
                    B30    B35                                                   B25        B118                                                     B26
                    B31           B38       B115
                                  B39




                                                                                                              Actions
                                                    Now                          1 Yr                           3 Yrs                      5 Yrs                 7 Yrs                        Actions
                  Business                               Z1                          Z4
             Considerations
                (Signposts)
                                                                    Z2
                                                                            Z3                                                                                                                 •   Displays and describes required actions to
                         Products/
                          Services                                   Z5
                                                                                     Z6
                                                                                                                  Z9                                  Z10
                                                                                                                                                                                                   execute company pathways
                                                                           Z7

                                                                                     Z8
                                                                                                                                                                                               •   Highlights priority actions
                    Functions/                       Z11                             Z15
                  Technologies                                      Z14
                                                                                     Z16         Z18
                                                     Z12

                                                         Z13                         Z17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        18
Outline of Presentation


  • What are technology roadmaps?
  • How do I make one?
  • What would I do if I had one?
  • Ways to get started: Explorer to custom technology roadmapping
  • Some project examples from SRIC-BI




                                                                     19
What Does a Custom Roadmap Mean in the
Context of Explorer?

 • Explorer is a syndicated program, with a wide and diverse client base
 • The Explorer charts of technology commercialization are designed for
   breadth
    — Explorer highlights the commercial implications, from technology
      development, for many products, industries and markets
    — Technology maps often combine many different enabling technologies


 • In contrast, a custom roadmap is created with an individual organization
   in mind
 • However, Explorer’s research and technology maps are a good basis
   from which to develop a customized roadmap
    — To aid in developing the opportunity profiles
    — To identify critical enabling technologies and inhibitors
    — To assist with player profiling that is often an important feature of such
      projects
    — To identify important areas to monitor
                                                                                   20
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
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Technology Roadmaps

  • 1. From Explorer™ to Custom Roadmapping and Action Plans Trieste: November 26, 2008 Robert Thomas, Ph.D. Principal SRI Consulting Business Intelligence http://www.sric-bi.com
  • 2. SRI Consulting Business Intelligence Services Address Representative Markets and Technology Clients Idea Strategy Strategy Intelligence Generation Development Execution • Aramco • Microsoft CONSULTING SERVICES • Auto Mfgs: US, Japan, • Nalco EU Opportunity Discovery • NRC (Canada) • Best Buy Roadmapping • Chevron • PDVSA Scanning, Monitoring, and Other Intelligence Solutions • Consumer Products • SABIC Scenario Planning/Strategy • Consumer Electronics • Samsung Commercialization • Eastman Chemical • Statoil Consumer Demand • ExxonMobil Technology and Market Assessment • Shell • Intevep • TVA SYNDICATED RESEARCH PROGRAMS • ITRI Explorer • U.S. Government • L’Oreal Scan™ • Motorola • Weyerhaeuser Virtual Worlds Consumer Financial Decisions VALS™ • Syndicated Research • More than 300 clients worldwide Key services and programs 1
  • 3. Outline of Presentation • What are technology roadmaps? • How do I make one? • What would I do if I had one? • Ways to get started: Explorer to custom technology roadmapping • Some SRIC-BI project examples 2
  • 4. What Do We Mean by a Technology Roadmap? The analogy with an actual road map is still the best one • A road map sets out the landscape • It shows us a number of different paths we can take depending on the starting point • Too many paths for any one person or company to take simultaneously • We must make a choice depending on where we want to go and our objectives • The pathway we end up choosing will depend on a number of external and internal considerations • Considerations such as: the traffic the enabling technology the weather 3
  • 5. Where You Want to Go Will Obviously Affect the Best Route • There may be multiple pathways to get to the same or very similar destinations • Some pathways may be shorter or better than others • Personal, business or external considerations will affect the choice 4
  • 6. Once the Route is Chosen We Need to Monitor Progress and Events to Decide if the Pathway Remains Correct • Monitoring everything is neither useful or possible… • …But monitoring progress along the route and potential events is advisable • Knowing what to monitor and the signs to look for becomes a key capability • Knowing………. What the showstoppers are! When a change in technology is required How to resolve conflicting signs 5
  • 7. Technology Roadmaps Are Not Conceptually Different from a Road Map… • Technology roadmaps should set out the landscape: the status and direction of an opportunity, an application and the associated technologies. • Time is the major axis and a key uncertainty: roadmaps can no more predict the future than crystal balls, but they can set out the possibilities • The industry-level roadmap shows the possible paths that individual organizations (as well as their products, services and technologies) might take in developing the opportunity • A company pathway sets out what an organization is going to do Now 2 Years 5 Years Product/Service A B C • Milestones help plot the pathway and are used to measure Functional progress Requirements A B C Technologies 1 2 3 4 Pathway Milestone 6
  • 8. …In Reality, Roadmaps Can Take Many Different Forms • Some of the most well-known technology roadmaps are the result of widespread industry consensus • The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors sets out major device-level functional requirements, the technology options and roadblocks • The ITRS is designed to keep Moore’s law on track and is not geared to specific user applications and markets • These types of roadmaps are particularly designed with milestone technology planning in mind. Technology Time Functionality or metric Source: ITRS Unknown solutions: roadblocks 7
  • 9. At SRIC-BI, We Focus on What We Call Strategic Technology Roadmaps The word “strategic” is frequently used: what do we mean by it here? • We mean that the roadmap is more than just about technology Industry-Level Roadmap Development • The roadmap must outline the Now 2 Years 5 Years products and services, within the Business Need Competition Market opportunity, that businesses or Considerations consumers would actually buy Products/Services A B C • It must relate product and services to functional requirements and/or Features/Functions A B C technologies • It must describe key business Technologies 1 2 3 4 considerations that help us decide what is the right pathway 8
  • 10. How To Make a Technology Roadmap: First Create a Profile of the Opportunity • First and foremost, creating a technology roadmap requires industry research to describe the opportunity: — What is market need and the likely evolution of products and services? — What are the enabling technologies, and how might they evolve? — What are the critical success factors and other business considerations? — What are the key uncertainties? • In project work, SRIC-BI typically uses a standard profile template • Where possible, industry interviews should help gauge the product/service evolution and technology hurdles. ANALYSIS OPPORTUNITY Business Attractiveness Key Success Factors DESCRIPTION • Potential revenue • Business model • Need • Profitability • Alliances/partners • Products/services • Competition • Level of service required • Markets • Regulations • Technology • Value chain • Entry barriers • Channels • R&D requirements • Manufacturing • Risk • Marketing 9
  • 11. From Profile to Technology Roadmap • The various elements of the profile become the major inputs to the roadmap • In reality, creating the roadmap may require further research about product, market and technology progression and timing • Creating a timeline helps ensure products do not occur before the enabling technologies are ready!!! Products/Services & Functions Products/ Services 1 Products/ Services 2 Products/Services A B C A B C Industry-Level Roadmap Development Necessary Now 2 Years 5 Years Features/Functions Business Need Competition Market 1..……. Considerations Opportunity 2.…….. 3. …. Profile Products/Services A B C Features/Functions Technologies & A B C Business Considerations Technologies 1 2 3 4 Technologies 1..….. 2..….. 3..…. Business Considerations 1..….. 2..….. 3. …. 10
  • 12. Example Industry-Level Roadmap • Roadmap for a Japanese multinational IT company in the area of Integrated Enterprise Information Systems • Accompanying tables describe the products, services, functions, technologies and business considerations Industry Roadmap Now N-1 1 Yr 1-3 3 Yrs 3-5 5 Yrs 5-7 7 Yrs 7- Business B1 B3 B5 B48 B50 B52 B54 B56 B57 Considerations B2 B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55 B6 B11 Products/ B7 B9 B62 B64 B67 B12 B15 B16 Services B8 B60 B10 B17 B75 B77 B58 B59 B61 B63 B66 B69 B71 B74 B68 B14 B70 B72 B96 B105 B27 Function B82 B85 B92 B94 B97 B101 B79 B83 B89 B19 B95 B22 B86 B21 B18 B90 B93 B20 B99 B103 B80 B87 B106 B100 B104 B84 B91 B42 Technologies B108 B32 B36 B88 B44 B40 B28 B33 B110 B112 B45 B41 B116 B117 B29 B34 B37 B113 B23 B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B115 B39 11
  • 13. From Industry Roadmap to Company Pathway • First and foremost, industry roadmaps set out multiple pathways and options • Just like a travel road map, they make us confront the decisions that need to be taken to move forward: to get from A to B • When creating a company-specific roadmap or pathway, the business considerations set out what we need to consider to make the decision • Business consideration examples might include: — A missing core competence — A market uncertainty — A competitive threat or critical success factor Company Roadmap (Pathway) • The company pathway and Now 2 Years 5 Years milestones chart the Business This way No This way No company’s course Need Competition Yes Market Yes Considerations • Signposts are set up to make sure we are on track and don’t Product/Service A B C need to change course Pathway • Programs like SRIC-BI’s Functional Explorer can help with Requirements A B C Milestone signpost monitoring This way No Technologies 1 2 3 4 Yes Signpost 12
  • 14. Roadmap Development Recap ct oj e pl e Pr m a Ex Industry Roadmap Now N-1 1 Yr 1-3 3 Yrs 3-5 5 Yrs 5-7 7 Yrs 7- Industry Roadmaps Business B1 B3 B5 B48 B50 B52 B54 B56 B57 Considerations B2 B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55 B6 B11 • Set out key business considerations, Products/ B62 B64 B67 B12 B15 Services B7 B8 B58 B9 B59 B60 B61 B10 B63 B66 B68 B17 B69 B71 B74 B75 B77 B16 products/services, functions, and technologies for B14 B70 a potential opportunity for commercialization B72 B96 B105 B27 Function B82 B85 B92 B94 B97 B101 B79 B83 B89 B19 B95 B22 B86 B21 B80 B18 B84 B87 B90 B91 B93 B20 B99 B100 B103 B104 B106 • Provide a basis for selected strategy (path) B42 Technologies B108 B32 B36 B88 B44 B40 B28 B33 B110 B112 B45 B41 B116 B117 B29 B34 B37 B113 B23 B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B115 B39 Company Path N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7- Company Path Business Now 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs B1 B3 B5 B48 B50 B52 B54 B56 B57 Considerations B2 (Signposts) B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55 • Selected strategy elements--business Products/ Services B6 B7 B8 B11 B9 B200 B60 B62 B10 B64 B67 B17 B12 B15 B75 B16 B77 considerations, products/services, functions, and B58 B59 B61 B63 B66 B69 B71 B74 technologies over time B68 B14 B70 B72 B96 B27 Function B82 B85 B92 B94 B97 B101 B105 B22 • Describes important business considerations and B79 B83 B89 B19 B95 B86 B21 B18 B90 B93 B20 B99 B103 B80 B87 B106 B100 B104 B84 B91 Technologies B108 B32 B28 B33 B36 B110 B112 B88 B41 B116 B44 B117 B40 B42 B45 products/services, etc. to be created B29 B34 B37 B113 B23 B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B39 B115 • Identifies strategic signposts to be monitored 13
  • 15. Now I Have a Roadmap, What Do I Do With it? • Company roadmaps are only a description of the organization’s path; to be useful they must lead to action • Describing, selecting and carrying out the action steps is more challenging than charting a path, but ultimately that is where the value lies • A road map analogy again: — A road map helps you chart your journey — An action plan sets out: – Checking the weather before you start – Filling up the car with gas – Putting the snow tires on – Not forgetting to bring: the map, the children, the dog……… — Some actions may be more of a priority than others! 14
  • 16. Action Roadmaps are Essential (Plans Without Actions Have No Value) • Action roadmaps display and describe the basic actions required to execute the pathway (strategy). • Priority (short term) actions are highlighted. • Key monitoring elements and signposts are described Action Roadmap Now 1 Years 3 Years 10 Years 5 Years Business B3 Considerations B1 ple (signposts) B2 Exam B4 P1 Products/Services P3 P2 P4 P5 Company Roadmap Functions/ T1 T4 Now 2 Years This way This way 5 Years Technologies & T2 T5 Business Considerations Need Competition No Yes Market No Yes Other Capabilities T3 T7 T6 Product/Service A B C Pathway Functional Continuous monitoring or improvement Requirements A B C Priority Actions Milestone Leads to next generation This way No B1: Verify need and initial target Technologies 1 2 3 4 Yes Signpost B2: Monitor key threats P1: Design and bundle initial product/service P2: Test customer acceptance 15
  • 17. Roadmapping Uses: A Focus on Business Strategy and Product/Service Development • The ultimate aim of developing roadmaps and action plans will vary by company and project, but two obvious different cases exist: 1. Using the roadmap principally for business strategy, entry options and product/service development 2. Using the roadmap for developing a technology strategy or portfolio • In the first case, the potential product/service pathways are critical, as is a close examination of the business considerations — Business considerations will capture threats from competition and key business challenges, organizational issues, or consumer acceptance — Actions might be: the need to test consumer acceptance of products; alliance or acquisition analysis; the need to develop internal capabilities such as a service organization — In such cases as this, the technologies may be readily acquired, or the necessary technology alliances can be easily formed 16
  • 18. Roadmapping Uses: Selecting a Technology Portfolio • For technology-oriented organizations (government labs, corporate research departments), the focus for roadmaps and actions may be on developing future technology concepts and other capabilities • Multiple product/service roadmaps can serve as the basis for developing a technology portfolio • Actions may relate to filling key capabilities, licensing and R&D partnering Technology Concept Analysis and Selection Multiple Product/Service Roadmaps Products & Product b Product d Product a Product c Product e Service b Service d Service a Service c Service e Product f Service f Industry Level Roadmap 1 Services Industry Level Roadmap 2 Industry Level Roadmap 3 Techs & 5 Roadmap 4 Industry Level Years Now 10 Years Industry Level RoadmapYears Now 5 Years 10 5 Other capabilities Industry Level Roadmap 6 Now 5 Years 10 Years Products/Services A Now B 5 Years C 10 Years Technology a X X X Products/Services A Now B 5 Years C 10 Years Products/Services A Now B 5 YearsC 10 Years Products/Services A B C Technology b X X Features/Functions Products/Services A BA BC C Features/Functions Products/ServicesA BA BC C Technology c X X X X X X X Features/Functions A B C Features/Functions A B C Features/Functions 1 2 A 3 B 4 C Technology e X X X X X X Technologies Features/Functions 1 2 A 3 B4 C Technologies 1 2 3 4 Technologies Technologies 1 Distribution Channels 3 2 4 Other Capabilities Technologies 1 Distribution Channels 3 2 Customer acceptance 4 Capability 1 X X Other Capabilities Technologies 1Distribution Channels 3 Customer2 assessment system acceptance 4 Other Capabilities Distribution Channels assessment system Customer acceptance Other Capabilities assessment Channels Distribution system Customer acceptance Capability 2 X X X X X X X Other Capabilities Distribution Channels assessment system Customer acceptance Other Capabilities assessment system Customer acceptance Capability 3 X X X X X X assessment system Capability 4 X X X X X X X 17
  • 19. Roadmap Development Recap ple m E xa Industry Roadmap Now N-1 1 Yr 1-3 3 Yrs 3-5 5 Yrs 5-7 7 Yrs 7- Industry Roadmaps Business B1 B3 B5 B48 B50 B52 B54 B56 B57 Considerations B2 B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55 B6 B11 • Set out key business considerations, Products/ B62 B64 B67 B12 B15 Services B7 B8 B58 B9 B59 B60 B61 B10 B63 B66 B68 B17 B69 B71 B74 B75 B77 B16 products/services, functions, and technologies for B14 B70 a potential opportunity for commercialization B72 B96 B105 B27 Function B82 B85 B92 B94 B97 B101 B79 B83 B89 B19 B95 B22 B86 B21 B80 B18 B84 B87 B90 B91 B93 B20 B99 B100 B103 B104 B106 • Provide a basis for selected strategy (path) B42 Technologies B108 B32 B36 B88 B44 B40 B28 B33 B110 B112 B45 B41 B116 B117 B29 B34 B37 B113 B23 B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B115 B39 N-1 1-3 Company Path 3-5 5-7 7- Company Path Business Now 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Considerations B2 (Signposts) B1 B3 B4 B5 B47 B48 B49 B50 B51 B53 B52 B54 B55 B56 B57 • Selected strategy elements--business Products/ Services B6 B7 B8 B11 B9 B200 B60 B62 B10 B64 B67 B17 B12 B15 B75 B16 considerations, products/services, functions, and B77 technologies over time B58 B59 B61 B63 B66 B69 B71 B74 B68 B14 B70 B72 B96 B27 Function B82 B85 B92 B94 B97 B101 B105 B79 B80 B83 B18 B84 B86 B87 B91 B89 B90 B19 B93 B95 B20 B99 B100 B21 B103 B104 B22 B106 • Describes important business considerations and Technologies B108 B32 B28 B33 B36 B110 B112 B88 B44 B40 B42 B45 products/services, etc. to be created B41 B116 B117 B29 B34 B37 B113 B23 B111 B114 • Identifies strategic signposts to be monitored B30 B35 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B115 B39 Actions Now 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Actions Business Z1 Z4 Considerations (Signposts) Z2 Z3 • Displays and describes required actions to Products/ Services Z5 Z6 Z9 Z10 execute company pathways Z7 Z8 • Highlights priority actions Functions/ Z11 Z15 Technologies Z14 Z16 Z18 Z12 Z13 Z17 18
  • 20. Outline of Presentation • What are technology roadmaps? • How do I make one? • What would I do if I had one? • Ways to get started: Explorer to custom technology roadmapping • Some project examples from SRIC-BI 19
  • 21. What Does a Custom Roadmap Mean in the Context of Explorer? • Explorer is a syndicated program, with a wide and diverse client base • The Explorer charts of technology commercialization are designed for breadth — Explorer highlights the commercial implications, from technology development, for many products, industries and markets — Technology maps often combine many different enabling technologies • In contrast, a custom roadmap is created with an individual organization in mind • However, Explorer’s research and technology maps are a good basis from which to develop a customized roadmap — To aid in developing the opportunity profiles — To identify critical enabling technologies and inhibitors — To assist with player profiling that is often an important feature of such projects — To identify important areas to monitor 20