Global Energy Outlook
Atlantic Council
Energy & Economic Summit
Carlos Pascual
Special Envoy and Coordinator for
Internati...
U.S. Oil Import Dependence
Oil Supply and Demand

Oil Imports
14

70%

12

60%

10

50%

8

25

40%

Consumption

2012 Imp...
Oil Prices continue to fluctuate around $110
Brent Crude Oil Price
130

$/barrel

120

110
100
90
80
70

Source: EIA, Nove...
Oil Supply Disruptions Elevated Since Early 2011
Oil Supply Disruptions
3.5

Million barrels per day

3.0
2.5

Libya

2.0
...
Declining need for OPEC crude in 2013
Evolution in the Market’s Need for OPEC Crude Oil
31.0

Reduce
Call

Increase
Call

...
Challenge to Energy Governance
Total Primary Energy Consumption
(quadrillion Btu)

900

Total Non-OECD
Total OECD
United S...
U.S. gas imports continue to fall
Gas Supply and Demand

Gas Imports
120

800

0.18

2012 Imports = 7%

700

0.16

Consump...
Global Gas Markets
World LNG Estimated November 2013 Landed and Hub Prices ($US/mmbtu)
Production
(bcm)

2008

2035

Russi...
LNG Export Capacity Growth
1,000
900
800

Export Volume (BCM)

700
600
500

2018:
Australia: Browse
(16.6), Bonaparte (2.8...
LNG Is Integrating Gas Markets
Pipeline and LNG Trade as a Share of Global Gas Consumption
25%

20%

Annual growth rate 20...
Diverging Gas Prices, Spot Deals Lead Growing
LNG Trade
Price ($/mmbtu)

LNG Imports (bcm)

18

350
300

Asia-Pacific Long...
Asia’s Role in Global Gas Consumption
China

India

Other Emerging Asia

Japan

OECD Asia, ex Japan

ROW

trillion cubic m...
Natural Gas: Infrastructure and Policy

Sources: EIA, IEA, Industry Sources

13
China: Natural Gas Infrastructure and Policy
Kazakhstan (5-10 bcm)

Russia (38 bcm)

Uzbekistan (5-10 bcm)
Turkmenistan (6...
Russia: Natural Gas Infrastructure and Policy
Billion Cubic Meters

Russian Gas Exports and Projected Export Capacity
2012...
Framework for Analysis
Infrastructure
•
•
•
•
•

Regasification capacity
Storage
Connecting pipelines
Transnational pipeli...
Europe Gas Trade 2012-2018
LNG Terminals
● Existing or Under Construction
● Proposed
Gas Flows
• Pipeline
• LNG

Trinidad ...
Eurasian gas infrastructure and gas discoveries
Selected natural gas
fields

Country

Field
name

Estimated
Recoverable
re...
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Global Energy Outlook by Carlos Pascual, Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs Bureau of Energy Resources, U.S. Department of State

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  • Forecast: Page 41 of http://www.sener.gob.mx/res/PE_y_DT/pub/2013/ENE_2013-2027.pdfHistory: http://www.ri.pemex.com/files/content/4_Exploration_2012.pdf
  • We are in the midst of a global energy revolution.There are five key revolutions in global energy markets that can be used to think about how energy trends will affect geopolitical challenges and opportunities in the years ahead. The energy supply in the United States is going through a renaissance as new technologies and innovations shape the market with the development in unconventional energy increasing U.S. reserves and energy self sufficiency.A combination of technology innovation, entrepreneurship, and strong commodity prices has spurred a these developments in the production of shale gas, shale oil, and offshore oil. The transformation in U.S. supply has reduced imports and made more oil available to global markets—reducing the call on OPEC, and making a reduction in imports from Iran possible.The International Energy Agency estimates that non-OECD Asia (excluding China) will have to spend $9 billion every year to 2030 to meet their energy access goals. The question about how to accomplish this is central to our bilateral and multilateral efforts.To meet rising standard of living expectations spurred by their economic growth, Asian countries with low levels of access will be under increasing pressure to invest in power generation. The global numbers of investment in required in the power sector are staggering and will provide a great opportunity for U.S. companies.
  • Global Energy Outlook by Carlos Pascual, Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs Bureau of Energy Resources, U.S. Department of State

    1. 1. Global Energy Outlook Atlantic Council Energy & Economic Summit Carlos Pascual Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs Bureau of Energy Resources U.S. Department of State November 22, 2013 1
    2. 2. U.S. Oil Import Dependence Oil Supply and Demand Oil Imports 14 70% 12 60% 10 50% 8 25 40% Consumption 2012 Imports = 40% 2006 Imports = 60% Million barrels per day 20 15 Biofuels Tight Oil 10 Other Onshore 5 Offshore 2001 Other 2005 2009 20% Share of consumption (right axis, %) 2 10% 0 0 1997 30% Volume (left axis, Mb/d) 4 Alaska Crude, other Crude, Onshore L48 1993 6 2013 0% 1993 1997 2001 2005 Source and Notes: EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook (2012). Figures for 2012-13 are projections. 2009 2013 2
    3. 3. Oil Prices continue to fluctuate around $110 Brent Crude Oil Price 130 $/barrel 120 110 100 90 80 70 Source: EIA, November 2013 3
    4. 4. Oil Supply Disruptions Elevated Since Early 2011 Oil Supply Disruptions 3.5 Million barrels per day 3.0 2.5 Libya 2.0 Iraq Iran 1.5 Nigeria 1.0 Yemen Syria 0.5 Sudan / S. Sudan Other Non-OPEC Source: EIA, October 2013 Sep 2013 Jul 2013 May 2013 Mar 2013 Jan 2013 Nov 2012 Sep 2012 Jul 2012 May 2012 Mar 2012 Jan 2012 Nov 2011 Sep 2011 Jul 2011 May 2011 Mar 2011 Jan 2011 0.0 4
    5. 5. Declining need for OPEC crude in 2013 Evolution in the Market’s Need for OPEC Crude Oil 31.0 Reduce Call Increase Call Million barrels per day 30.5 30.0 Other 29.5 U.S. 2013 Call on OPEC crude is 0.4 Mb/d less than the 2012 Call and 0.7 Mb/d less than 2012 OPEC Production 29.0 28.5 2012 OPEC 2012 Call Production on OPEC Crude Source: EIA, August 2013 Falling OPEC NGLs Non-OPEC Rising non- 2013 Call OECD supply supply OECD on OPEC Demand growth growth Demand Crude 5
    6. 6. Challenge to Energy Governance Total Primary Energy Consumption (quadrillion Btu) 900 Total Non-OECD Total OECD United States China India 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2005 Source: EIA, IEO 2013 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 6
    7. 7. U.S. gas imports continue to fall Gas Supply and Demand Gas Imports 120 800 0.18 2012 Imports = 7% 700 0.16 Consumption 100 0.14 600 Billion Cubic Meters 2005 Imports = 17% 500 Shale Gas 80 0.12 Tight Gas 0.10 400 60 0.08 300 Lower 48 Onshore Conventional 40 Volume (left axis, bcm) 0.06 0.04 20 Share of Consumption (right axis, %) 200 100 0 1993 Lower 48 Offshore Conventional Coalbed Methane Alaska 1997 0.02 0 2001 Source and Notes: EIA, AEO 2013 2005 2009 2013 0.00 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 7
    8. 8. Global Gas Markets World LNG Estimated November 2013 Landed and Hub Prices ($US/mmbtu) Production (bcm) 2008 2035 Russia 662 881 Iran 130 279 Turkmenistan 71 136 Canada 175 192 United States 575 779 Norway 102 127 Australia 45 155 Qatar 78 260 Indonesia 74 119 Nigeria 32 119 Algeria 82 168 Latin America Total 148 292 NBP $10.75 UK $10.66 Lake Charles $3.15 Henry Hub $3.58 Spain $10.90 Belgium $10.40 China $15.25 Altamira $16.40 Source: IEA, FERC, media and industry estimates. Japan and South Korea $15.65 India $13.75 Rio de Janeiro $14.65 Bahia Blanca $15.65 Reserves (bcm) Mozambique 2825 Tanzania 565 Israel 407 8
    9. 9. LNG Export Capacity Growth 1,000 900 800 Export Volume (BCM) 700 600 500 2018: Australia: Browse (16.6), Bonaparte (2.8), Shell (4.1) Indonesia: Tangguh (5.2), Abadi (3.45) Israel: Levant LNG (13.8) Mozambique: Mozambique LNG 1, 2 (13.8) USA: Sabine Pass Phase 2 (12.42), Lake Charles (22.1) 2011 Top Ten LNG Exporters 1. Qatar: 30% 2. Malaysia: 11% 3. Indonesia: 10% 4. Australia: 9% 2016: 5. Nigeria: 7% Australia: Gorgon T2 6. Algeria: 6% (7.2), Prelude (5.0), Wheatstone (12.3) 7. T&T: 6% USA: Sabine Pass Phase 1 8. Russia: 4% (12.42) 9. Oman: 3% 10. Egypt: 3% 2020 Australia: Gorgon T4 (7.2), Australia (15.8), Brunei (5.52), Iran LNG (13.3), Mozambique (27.6), Nigeria (46.23), Papua New Guinea (16.56), Russia (62.1), USA (146.6) Tanzania (13.8) FID Planned 2013: Algeria: Skikda (5.5) 400 300 200 100 2015: 2014: Algeria: Gassi Touil (5.5) Australia: Queensland Curtis (11.7) Australia: Gladstone (10.8), Gorgon Libya: Marsa-el-Brega (3.0) T1 (7.2), Australia Pacific (12.42) Papua New Guinea: Indonesia: Dongi Senoro (2.8) Hides (9.0) Qatar: Debottlenecking (10.8) 2017: 2019: Australia: Gorgon T3 (7.2), Cameroon: Cameroon Icthys (11.6) LNG (4.8) Canada: Kitimat (6.9), BC LNG (2.8)Canada: Shell LNG (16.6) Equatorial Guinea: EGLNG (6.1) 9 Papua New Guinea: PNG (4.1) Peru: Peru LNG (4.1) USA: Freeport (18.2) Country: Facility (volume in bcm) Sources: PIRA 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 9 2020
    10. 10. LNG Is Integrating Gas Markets Pipeline and LNG Trade as a Share of Global Gas Consumption 25% 20% Annual growth rate 2001-12: - Global gas consumption 2.8% - Global gas trade 5% - LNG trade 8.1% LNG Pipeline 15% 10% 5% 0% Data source: BP Statistical Review 2013 10
    11. 11. Diverging Gas Prices, Spot Deals Lead Growing LNG Trade Price ($/mmbtu) LNG Imports (bcm) 18 350 300 Asia-Pacific Long-Term LNG Europe Long-Term LNG 250 U.S. Long-Term LNG 10 200 Asia-Pacific Spot LNG 8 150 16 14 The share of consumption in major markets met by LNG imports rises from 8% to 12 6 100 4 Europe Spot LNG U.S. Spot LNG Asia (average spot) 50 2 U.K. (NBP) Data source: EIA, PIRA 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 - U.S. (Henry Hub) 11
    12. 12. Asia’s Role in Global Gas Consumption China India Other Emerging Asia Japan OECD Asia, ex Japan ROW trillion cubic meters per annum (tcm) 5 1.6 tcm growth to 2035 4 3 Bcm 2 2010 2020 2035 OECD Asia 206 236 China 110 304 544 India 1 182 64 92 178 219 264 389 3,307 3,943 4,955 Other Asia World 0 2010 Source: EIA 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 12
    13. 13. Natural Gas: Infrastructure and Policy Sources: EIA, IEA, Industry Sources 13
    14. 14. China: Natural Gas Infrastructure and Policy Kazakhstan (5-10 bcm) Russia (38 bcm) Uzbekistan (5-10 bcm) Turkmenistan (65 bcm) Natural Gas Pipeline Crude Oil Pipeline Refined Product Pipeline Sources: PetroChina, Industry Sources Myanmar (12 bcm) 14
    15. 15. Russia: Natural Gas Infrastructure and Policy Billion Cubic Meters Russian Gas Exports and Projected Export Capacity 2012 Exports Pipeline Capacity Pipeline to Europe (130) Pipeline to FSU (56) Yamal 1 Blue Nord Stream (33) Stream 1 & 2 (55) (16) Sakhalin-2 (13) Shtokman (12) Yamal LNG (20) LNG Capacity 0 50 100 LNG – Including Re-exports (14.8) Ukrainian GTS (142.5) Belarusian Other GTS (19.5) (44.5) Central Asia Center (80) Yamal 2 (15) South Stream (63) Altai* (30) Vladivostok (6.8) Pechora (6) De-Kastri (6) 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Shtokman Field Yamal Fields Oil Pipelines Gas Pipelines Priority Gas Pipelines Halted Gas Pipelines Primarily Gas Consumer Kovykta Field Sakhalin Island Oil & Gas Consumer Primarily Oil Consumer Chayanda Fields Oil & Gas Competitors Sources: RIA NOVOSTI, AEI, Gazprom, BP Statistical Review (2013) 15
    16. 16. Framework for Analysis Infrastructure • • • • • Regasification capacity Storage Connecting pipelines Transnational pipelines Tanker availability Market Elements • Wholesale price deregulation • Separate gas marketing from transit (unbundling) • Third party access • Regasification • Pipelines • Storage • Market players • Regulatory capacity • Relax destination clauses • Market-based indexation Risk and Finance • Transit security • Infrastructure finance and capital markets • Storage & Pipelines • Regasification • Liquefaction • Commodity trade and financial markets • Contract requirements Market Data • Natural gas demand • Natural gas production • Import volumes • Pipeline • LNG • Prices • Production • Import • Wholesale • Retail 16
    17. 17. Europe Gas Trade 2012-2018 LNG Terminals ● Existing or Under Construction ● Proposed Gas Flows • Pipeline • LNG Trinidad and Tobago, others OECD Europe Gas Demand 2012: 513 bcm 2018: 525 bcm LNG Imports 2012: 66 bcm 2018: 81 bcm Pipeline Imports 2012: 185 bcm 2018: 195 bcm Data source: Gas Infrastructure Europe and IEA Medium-Term Gas Market Report 2013 17
    18. 18. Eurasian gas infrastructure and gas discoveries Selected natural gas fields Country Field name Estimated Recoverable reserves (bcm) Cyprus Aphrodite 196 Israel Mari-B 42 Dalit 14 Tamar 280 Leviathan 540 Tanin 33.6 Karish 50.4 Palestinian Gaza Territories Marine Shah Azerbaijan Deniz Romania Domino 1 South Stream SCPX TANAP TAP 28 84 42-84 Source: BP, South Stream, IEA, Economist, EIA Shah Deniz Aphrodite (Cyprus) Leviathan (Israel) Tamar (Israel) 18

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