Review what has happened in the industry between and
Comment on some key issues
Set context for more detailed presentations later
July August Inaugural meeting Demos / press announcement Investment Price expectation Femto ecosystem RFPs Trials
Femtocell price points CEO Arun Sarin is excited about the prospects of femtocell technology, but he's looking to the vendor community to supply the home base stations at margin-crunching prices Substantially less than $100, please
Femtocell price points “ The femtocell market is being led by smaller OEMs… The best these companies could hope for would be something in the region of 5% [essential IPR] rates” Stuart Carlaw, ABI Research Sep 07 “ Although Sprint is offering Dallas customers $50 femtocells, those units cost $250 apiece to make” Allen Nogee, In-Stat Nov 07
July August Inaugural meeting Demos / press announcement Investment Price expectation Mainstream media coverage Electrosensitivity 'in the mind' Femto ecosystem RFPs Trials Demo
Broadband acquisitions “ Cheap calls not enough” September October More mainstream media coverage Sprint Airave launch Launch Investment Plenary meeting Femto ecosystem Partnership ZTE / Samsung WCDMA femtocell UMA standards work for femtocells 3G UNC for femto trials
Femtocells & fixed broadband "I can't imagine Verizon will be too chuffed at helping backhaul Sprint's CDMA traffic." (Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis) "Legal battles are already shaping up as to whether the mobile carriers can force the wireline carriers to backhaul their traffic from femtocells." (VON conference panel session) “ The importance of fixed network access for mobile operators will increase as they start to deploy femtocells.“ (Mark Heath, Analysys)
Femtocells & fixed broadband Femtocells must be bandwidth efficient & differentiate QoS for different traffic types Many operators are planning to offer femtocells with their own DSL services “ Comcast does not, has not, and will not block any Web sites or online applications, and no one has demonstrated otherwise” (Comcast executive VP David Cohen) "Without some form of regulation no wireline provider would guarantee quality of service on the backhaul."
Broadband acquisitions “ Cheap calls not enough” September October More mainstream media coverage Sprint Airave launch Launch Investment Plenary meeting Femto ecosystem Partnership Frame agreement UK trial rumour ZTE / Samsung WCDMA femtocell UMA standards work for femtocells 3G UNC for femto trials
The business case for femtocells Despite these different interpretations, Analysys has been consistently positive on femtocells, but unconvinced on voice-oriented (2G) consumer propositions.
Femtocells will appeal to Mobile Web 2.0 users The perfect data storm is coming “ [Vodafone] data revenues jumped a whopping 49%... “It is the culmination of attractive data pricing, improved usability and mobile demand for Web 2.0 services which is brewing to form the prefect data storm.” (Matt Lewis, ArcChart) “ A strategy underpinned by a range of multimedia service propositions will result in a much stronger business case for femtocells... offering operators the chance to recoup their investment within one to eight months ” “ Fast video downloads, instant messaging and perfect quality.” “ Now I can dip in to YouTube and Facebook any time from any room. I’d love this thing even if it didn’t save me money.”
November December Plenary meeting New members announced + Board 900 MHz WCDMA network 2G femtos Mainstream media Interest Interest Interest Unik > femto 18 million UMTS femto shipments in 2011 3G femtocells answer the needs of our mobile-centric strategy 100% Trial announcements… Leaks trial vendor identities