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State of the (femto) nation
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  • 1. State of the (femto) nation Dr. Andy Tiller VP Marketing, ip.access Ltd. 5 December 2007
  • 2. Agenda
    • Review what has happened in the industry between and
    • Comment on some key issues
    • Set context for more detailed presentations later
  • 3. July August Inaugural meeting Demos / press announcement Investment Price expectation Femto ecosystem RFPs Trials
  • 4. Femtocell price points CEO Arun Sarin is excited about the prospects of femtocell technology, but he's looking to the vendor community to supply the home base stations at margin-crunching prices Substantially less than $100, please
  • 5. Femtocell price points “ The femtocell market is being led by smaller OEMs… The best these companies could hope for would be something in the region of 5% [essential IPR] rates” Stuart Carlaw, ABI Research Sep 07 “ Although Sprint is offering Dallas customers $50 femtocells, those units cost $250 apiece to make” Allen Nogee, In-Stat Nov 07
  • 6. July August Inaugural meeting Demos / press announcement Investment Price expectation Mainstream media coverage Electrosensitivity 'in the mind' Femto ecosystem RFPs Trials Demo
  • 7. Health concerns
  • 8. July August Inaugural meeting Demos / press announcement Investment Price expectation Mainstream media coverage Electrosensitivity 'in the mind' Working groups Launch plans Femto ecosystem RFPs Trials Demo 40m femtocells installed by 2011 In-building wireless $3.6 billion in 2011 ($2.5 bn femto)
  • 9. September October Sprint Airave launch Launch
  • 10. Femtocells vs. WiFi - spot the difference
    • $19.99 per month for unlimited calls at home
    • WiFi routers $49.99
    • Choice of 3 phones
    UMA WiFi service Femtocell service (CDMA 1X) Sprint Airave
    • $15 per month for unlimited calls at home
    • Airave femtocell $49.99
    • Any Sprint phone
  • 11. Airave reviews
  • 12. Airave reviews
  • 13. September October More mainstream media coverage Sprint Airave launch Launch Investment Femto ecosystem Partnership UMA standards work for femtocells 3G UNC for femto trials
  • 14. HOME ISP OPERATOR Femtocell Some kind of box Uu core network Iu+ eIu Iu Up Iu-b etc. etc. Fa WG3 lists 13 different architectures etc.
  • 15. Femtocell CPE Femtocell Silicon Standalone Femtocell Access Points Uu Integrated Gateways
  • 16. Broadband acquisitions “ Cheap calls not enough” September October More mainstream media coverage Sprint Airave launch Launch Investment Plenary meeting Femto ecosystem Partnership ZTE / Samsung WCDMA femtocell UMA standards work for femtocells 3G UNC for femto trials
  • 17. Femtocells & fixed broadband "I can't imagine Verizon will be too chuffed at helping backhaul Sprint's CDMA traffic." (Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis) "Legal battles are already shaping up as to whether the mobile carriers can force the wireline carriers to backhaul their traffic from femtocells." (VON conference panel session) “ The importance of fixed network access for mobile operators will increase as they start to deploy femtocells.“ (Mark Heath, Analysys)
  • 18. Femtocells & fixed broadband  Femtocells must be bandwidth efficient & differentiate QoS for different traffic types   Many operators are planning to offer femtocells with their own DSL services “ Comcast does not, has not, and will not block any Web sites or online applications, and no one has demonstrated otherwise” (Comcast executive VP David Cohen) "Without some form of regulation no wireline provider would guarantee quality of service on the backhaul."
  • 19. Broadband acquisitions “ Cheap calls not enough” September October More mainstream media coverage Sprint Airave launch Launch Investment Plenary meeting Femto ecosystem Partnership Frame agreement UK trial rumour ZTE / Samsung WCDMA femtocell UMA standards work for femtocells 3G UNC for femto trials
  • 20. The business case for femtocells Despite these different interpretations, Analysys has been consistently positive on femtocells, but unconvinced on voice-oriented (2G) consumer propositions.
  • 21. Femtocells will appeal to Mobile Web 2.0 users The perfect data storm is coming “ [Vodafone] data revenues jumped a whopping 49%... “It is the culmination of attractive data pricing, improved usability and mobile demand for Web 2.0 services which is brewing to form the prefect data storm.” (Matt Lewis, ArcChart) “ A strategy underpinned by a range of multimedia service propositions will result in a much stronger business case for femtocells... offering operators the chance to recoup their investment within one to eight months ” “ Fast video downloads, instant messaging and perfect quality.” “ Now I can dip in to YouTube and Facebook any time from any room. I’d love this thing even if it didn’t save me money.”
  • 22. But the operator business case works at $200+
    • Very cost-effective mobile services
      • Radio network installed by customer
      • Free backhaul via the Internet
      • Macro network offload
    • Increased revenues
      • More use of the mobile phone at home
      • Increased adoption of new services
    • Win new customers
      • “ Femtozone” tariffs to capture whole households
      • Triple / Quad-play bundles
    • A strategic presence in the home
    ip.access white paper www.ipaccess.com
  • 23. November December Plenary meeting New members announced + Board 900 MHz WCDMA network 2G femtos Mainstream media Interest Interest Interest Unik > femto 18 million UMTS femto shipments in 2011 3G femtocells answer the needs of our mobile-centric strategy 100% Trial announcements… Leaks trial vendor identities
  • 24.
    • Based in Cambridge, UK
    • We build nanoGSM® - the world’s most deployed picocell
      • Increases GSM capacity & coverage for…
      • Buildings (offices, retail stores, hotels, airports…)
      • Transport (trains, planes, ships)
      • Rural areas
    • And the Oyster 3G™ femtocell
      • Residential 3G access point
      • WINNER of the GSM Association Best Radio Access Product 2007 and numerous other awards
    About ip.access Both products connect to the mobile operator’s core network over IP links – hence “ip.access”
  • 25. Thank you!
  • 26. Web links
    • Mainstream femtocell news coverage
    • http://uk.reuters.com/news/video?videoId=59291&videoChannel=6
    • http://www.cnbc.com/id/15838342/site/14081545/
    • http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/6916125.stm
    • http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jul2007/tc20070730_802787.htm?chan=technology_technology+index+page_top+stories
    • http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB118902901265718566.html
    • http://www.myfoxboston.com/myfox/pages/Home/Detail?contentId=4867079&version=1&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=VSTY&pageId=1.1.1
    • http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/click_online/7098257.stm
    • http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article498249.ece
    • http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2007/11/23/sciphones123.xml
    • Health concerns
    • http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/6914492.stm
    • http://www.cellular-news.com/story/26002.php?source=newsletter
    • http://www.femtoforum.org/femto/aboutfemtocells.php?id=79
  • 27. Web links
    • Operator news
    • SoftBank press demos: http://wirelesswatch.jp/2007/07/02/softbank-group-to-trial-femtocell/
    • FT / Orange RFP: http://www.unstrung.com/document.asp?doc_id=128234
    • Vodafone RFP: http://www.unstrung.com/document.asp?doc_id=128344
    • Vodafone (Arun Sarin): http:// www.unstrung.com/document.asp?doc_id =129509
    • DoCoMo: http://www.generation-nt.com/ntt-docomo-offre-pro-femtocell-3g-actualite-43058.html
    • AT&T: http://www.unstrung.com/document.asp?doc_id=129159
    • Orascom: http://www.telephonyworld.com/cgi-bin/news/viewnews.cgi?category=all&id=1190161053
    • Vodafone broadband: http://www.telecoms.com/itmgcontent/tcoms/news/articles/20017467272.html
    • O2 sceptical?: http://www.totaltele.com/View.aspx?ID=95740&t=2
    • Orange trial?: http://www.newswireless.net/index.cfm/article/3621
    • Vodafone trial: http://www.unstrung.com/document.asp?doc_id=137735
    • Verizon interest: http://news.zdnet.com/2100-1035_22-6216358.html
    • AT&T interest: http://solsie.com/solsie-readers-ocwmug-meet-up-update/
    • SFR: http://www.mobinaute.com/84976-sfr-interesse-mobiles-google-os-femtocell-3g.html
    • Elisa: http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/marketwire/0326082.htm
    • FT Unik vs. femto: http://www.unstrung.com/document.asp?doc_id=138855
  • 28. Web links
    • Sprint Airave
    • Website: http://airave.sprint.com/?id9= vanity:airave
    • Blog review: http://asliceofmyapple.blogspot.com/2007/09/airave-review-first-impressions.html
    • Blog review: http://blog.inphotonicsresearch.com/2007/11/bye-bye-sprint-airave.html
    • Market forecasts
    • In-Stat: http://www.3g.co.uk/PR/Aug2007/5027.htm
    • ABI: http://www.abiresearch.com/products/market_research/In-Building_Wireless_Networks
    • IDATE: http://telecom.tekrati.com/research/9715/
  • 29. Web links
    • Vendor announcements
    • ip.access Oyster 3G launch: http://www.ipaccess.com/news/press_releases/pr13-02-07.htm
    • Ubiquisys ZoneGate launch: http://www.ubiquisys.com/ubiquisys3/pressreleases.php?id=1
    • Huawei: http:// www.telecomasia.net/article.php?type = article&id_article =6341
    • ZTE: http://wwwen.zte.com.cn/main/News%20Events/Whats%20New/2007102558200.shtml
    • Motorola: http://www.telecoms.com/itmgcontent/tcoms/news/articles/20017476186.html
    • Ericsson 2G femto: http://www.metro.se/se/article/2007/11/13/19/0612-48/index.xml
    • Alcatel-Lucent: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/11/16/business/business_30056332.php
    • Airvana: http://www.wirelessiq.com/content/newsfeed/11698.html
  • 30. Web links
    • Partnerships ip.access+Thomson: http://www.ipaccess.com/news/press_releases/pr12-02-07b.htm
    • Ubiquisys+Netgear: http://news.zdnet.co.uk/communications/0,1000000085,39287744,00.htm?r=14
    • NSN+Thomson: http://www.3g.co.uk/PR/July2007/4888.htm
    • NSN+Airvana: http://www.airvana.com/news/news_478.htm
    • Alcatel-Lucent+Sagem: http:// www.unstrung.com/document.asp?doc_id =135802
    • NEC+Ubiquisys: http://www.ubiquisys.com/ubiquisys3/pressreleases.php?id=8
    • Samsung+ZTE: http://www.mobileeurope.co.uk/news_analysis/112629/
    • Ubiquisys+Kineto: http://www.ubiquisys.com/ubiquisys3/pressreleases.php?id=2
    • Ubiquisys+Tatara: http://www.ubiquisys.com/ubiquisys3/pressreleasesarc.php?id=14
    • Investments
    • Google / Ubiquisys: http:// www.unstrung.com/document.asp?doc_id =129607
    • Airvana IPO: http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/IPO%20INFO/572226/
    • Samsung / picoChip: http://www.fiercewireless.com/press-releases/picochip-receives-strategic-investment-samsung
  • 31. Web links
    • Femto Forum
    • Website: http://www.femtoforum.org/femto/
    • New members: http://www.telecoms.com/itmgcontent/tcoms/news/articles/20017476630.html
    • Analysts
    • Dean Bubley: http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/
    • Allen Nogee: http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/news/2007/11/femtocells
    • Analysys: http://research.analysys.com/default.asp?m=7346&n=%name-id%&k=INS_ART_1&Mode=article&iLeftarticle=2554
    • The broadband question
    • Analysys: http://www.eurocomms.com/online_press/111952/
    • Dean Bubley: http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/2007/09/quick-musings-on-net-neutrality.html
    • VON panel: http:// www.telecommagazine.com/newsglobe/article.asp?HH_ID =AR_3674
    • Comcast: http:// www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id =138122&site= cdn
    • Communications Technology: http://www.cable360.net/ct/wireless/26543.html
    • Total telecom: http://www.telecoms.com/itmgcontent/tcoms/news/articles/20017468491.html
    • UMA
    • 3GPP: http://umatoday.blogspot.com/2007/08/big-week-for-femto-standard.html
    • Kineto: http://www.kinetowireless.com/news/press_releases/kineto_femtocell_pr_100807.html