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India education   us$45bn private education - opportunity everyone wants a slice
 

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    India education   us$45bn private education - opportunity everyone wants a slice India education us$45bn private education - opportunity everyone wants a slice Document Transcript

    • Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Disclosures and analyst certifications are located in Appendix 1 Anand Rathi Research 29 December 2011 Sujan Hajra +9122 66266720 sujanhajra@rathi.com Atul Thakkar +9122 66266724 atulthakkar@rathi.com India I Equities Indian Education US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice
    • Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Disclosures and analyst certifications are located in Appendix 1 Anand Rathi Research India Equities Education Sector Report India I Equities Key data BB code M.Cap (US$m) Rating CMP (`) TP (`) Upside (%) PE(x) PBV(x) EV/EBITDA(x) ROE (%) Career Point CRPT IN Equity 75.7 Buy 216 284 31.5 14.9 1.2 9.5 7.5 Core Education CETL IN Equity 556.9 Buy 258 340 31.8 9.3 1.8 6.1 20.7 Educomp EDSL IN Equity 369.0 Hold 200 260 30.0 4.5 0.7 3.5 16.4 NIIT NIIT IN Equity 117.5 Buy 37 52 40.5 6.0 0.7 3.3 11.6 Tree House THEAL IN Equity 109.0 Buy 168 225 33.9 18.6 1.9 9.6 10.5 Source: Companies, Anand Rathi Research Note: * Prices as on 26th December, 2011; Valuation data for FY13e. based on CMP Sujan Hajra +9122 66266720 sujanhajra@rathi.com Atul Thakkar +9122 66266724 atulthakkar@rathi.com 29 December 2011 India Education US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice At US$600bn, yearly education spend in India is larger than that of the US at comparable prices. Estimated revenue CAGR of private entrepreneurs in education, at 19% during 2011-’15 (US$45bn by 2015), is also one of the world’s fastest, and is expected to be driven by a sharp rise in household spend, with median income elasticity of 2. Public policy is likely to aid incumbents but to defocus private players from K-12. Skill and vocational training are emerging as key opportunities. High growth, limited investable opportunities and the recession-proof nature of the education sector are likely to keep valuations high. We initiate coverage with a positive stance. Top picks: NIIT and Tree House.  At US$600bn, India’s education sector is bigger than that of the US. With US$600bn of yearly overall education spend at comparable prices, India’s education sector is bigger than that of the US. Even at a value of US$100bn by market prices, education spend in India is the 9th highest. India’s yearly growth in education spend, at 15%, is also one of the fastest.  Private education revenue growing 19%, to touch US$45bn by 2015. From US$30bn in 2012, private education revenue is set to reach US$45bn by 2015. Main revenue streams: K-12 (US$20bn), technical education (US$12bn), coaching (US$8bn) & pre-school (US$3bn).  Over 10% of wallet. 10.4% of total consumer spend of the urban affluent (top 10% by spend) funds private education. The rural poorest (bottom 10%) spends just 1.4% of wallet on education. With median income elasticity of demand for education at near 2, a 1% rise in per capita income leads to 2% rise in spend, mostly on private education. This is a key driver for the sector.  Public policy to defocus private players from K-12. Formal education in India is on a non-profit basis. While ongoing reforms may help incumbents, the Right to Information Act may deter private players from K-12.  Skill enhancement: the next big thing. Shortage of trainers and ICT- based interface are likely to challenge classroom-based coaching models. Private players are expected to focus on technical education and pre-schools. Also, the gulf between formal education and the market’s skill requirements is driving demand for vocational education and skill development services.  Top picks: NIIT & Tree House due to low regulatory risk. The sector’s rich valuations of +40x forward earnings during FY07-11 were affected by governance and funding issues. We expect these to be resolved and initiate coverage on Career Point, Core Education, NIIT & Tree House with Buy ratings and Educomp with a Hold. Overweight Sensex: 15971 Nifty: 4779
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 2 India Education US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Everyone wants a slice............................................................................ 3 Rising trends in education spend............................................................. 9 Pre-schools: Legally for-profit................................................................ 15 K-12: large spend, highly regulated....................................................... 19 Higher education: Capex heavy............................................................. 25 Tutorials: An urban phenomenon .......................................................... 28 Vocational training ................................................................................. 31 Public policy: the good, bad & ugly........................................................ 34 Listed companies................................................................................... 41 Career Point..................................................................................... 42 Core Education................................................................................ 57 Educomp.......................................................................................... 71 NIIT .................................................................................................. 86 Tree House.................................................................................... 101 Aptech............................................................................................ 115 Edserve.......................................................................................... 116 Everonn.......................................................................................... 117 Zee Learn....................................................................................... 118 Unlisted companies.............................................................................. 119 Annexures............................................................................................ 136
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 3 Everyone wants a slice At US$600bn, yearly education spend by government and households in India is larger than that of the US at comparable prices. The estimated CAGR of private revenue in Indian education, at 19% during ’11-’15, is also one of the fastest in the world. We expect revenue of private entrepreneurs in education at US$45bn by 2015. A sharp rise in household spend on education with median income elasticity of 2 is driving this growth. Public policy is likely to aid the incumbents but is also likely to steer private entrepreneurs away from school education. Skill and vocational training are emerging as big opportunities for private players. High growth, scarcity of investable opportunities and the recession-proof nature of the sector are likely to keep valuations high. Large size, strong growth, bullish expectations At US$100bn a year at market prices, India’s education sector is among the top 10 in the world in value terms (see Fig 1).1 In addition, the cost of educational services in India is one of the lowest in the world – less than one-sixth of the global average (see Fig 2)2. That is, if measured in global average prices, yearly education spend in India at US$600bn is even higher than in the US. Revenue growth in the sector is also one of the fastest worldwide. Since 2000, education spend has grown at a median rate of 15% per year – 200 basis points (bps) higher than the GDP. Of the overall education spend (of US$100bn) households constitute 35%, which is on the high side (see Fig 3) as compared to most other countries.3 The revenue size of the addressable market for private investment in education is ~US$30bn. This is growing at an annual rate of 17% and is likely to accelerate to 19% from now until 2015. The large size of India’s education pie is attracting entrepreneurs and financiers by droves. The rapid expansion of private institutes over the last 5-6 years (see Fig 4), particularly technical and professional institutes, reflects the entrepreneurial wave in the education industry. Financial investors are picking up stakes in these ventures, and investment deals taking place in this space command jaw-dropping valuation multiples (See Annexure I and II). The addressable market for private investment is currently ~US$30bn and is growing at an annual rate of 19% Fig 1 – India: among the top-10 markets by education spend 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 US Japan France UK Germany Italy Brazil Canada India Spain Indonesia SouthKorea Mexico Russia Australia Netherlands Belgium Sweden Poland Switzerland (Educationspending,US$billion) 1,189 Source: World Bank and Anand Rathi Research Fig 2 – Price of education in India 1/6th of world average 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 India Indonesia Russia China Poland Mexico Brazil SouthKorea Spain Australia Canada France Netherlands Italy Belgium Sweden Japan UK Germany US Switzerland (Priceindexforeducation,Worldprice=100) Source: World Bank and Anand Rathi Research Note: Please see page 143 for the explanation of all references
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 4 Anatomy of the Indian education sector Three key rungs of the educational system Formal education: This comprises school, college, university and technical/professional education. The core, or formal, education system in India is highly regulated. A key policy condition is that formal education institutes need to operate on a non-profit basis. Parallel education: This system is largely informal, runs parallel to the core, and mainly supplements formal education. The components of the parallel system include pre-school, private tuition/coaching, test/examination preparation and job/skill-oriented vocational institutes, corporate training and finishing schools. Parallel education is virtually outside the scope of any specific regulatory or supervisory system. Ancillary education: The last rung in the educational system feeds the other two, and comprises teacher training, textbooks and stationery, IT-enabled teaching aids and management of education services. The ancillary rung too is virtually outside the scope of any specific regulatory or supervisory system. Nature of education according to ownership and management Government institutes: Public sector entities own and manage government institutes. This constitutes the bulk, nearly 75%, of India’s educational system, but the rate of expansion of these institutes is slowing. Private-aided institutes: Private-aided institutes are managed by private entities but receive grants from public authorities. The fee structure for students and salary structure for teaching and non-teaching staff is aligned to the public sector. This segment is part of the public education system. Private-unaided institutes: These are owned and operated by private trusts/societies/non-profit companies/individuals. This report considers only institutes in this category as private institutes. Private institutes operate at all levels of the system: core, parallel and ancillary. In the case of formal education, if private institutes generate any surplus, it has to be retained by the institute and cannot be distributed to other entities. Segments of the Indian education sector Indian Education Sector Core Parallel Ancillary Primary education Secondary education Higher educationsecondary Higher education (e.g: Technical, Medical & General) K-12 Pre schools Coaching Test preparation Vocational training Corporate training ICT / Multimedia & Online content Teacher training Books & stationery Management & ERP Post graduation (e.g: Doctorate, MBA etc.) Source: Anand Rathi Research Education sector: Risk-reward matrix India education Risk: regulatory / investment / scaleable High Medium Low High K-12 (management contracts) Sports education Vocational training Medium Higher education / university Test prep & tutorials; Pre-school Returnsovernext5yrs Low K-12 (own schools) Corporate training, language courses ERP / IT; Multimedia ICT; books & stationery Source: Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 5 Currently, 65% of Indian students go to government institutes and 11% go to government-aided private institutes (see Fig 8), where elementary education is free. Consequently, cost of education in India is half that of China, one-fourth that of Mexico, one-tenth that of Canada and one- fifteenth that of the US (see Fig 2). Investment rationale: key attractions of the sector Public funding crunch; inadequate facilities. Public spend in education accounts for over 60% of overall education spend (see Fig 5). Yet, current educational facilities are inadequate in terms of both quantity and quality. Seats available for post-higher-secondary (tertiary) education are sufficient for just 12% of the population in the age group to avail themselves of tertiary education. Technical and professional education receives only 4% of budgetary spend and, therefore, a large number of private technical/ professional education institutes (see Fig 4) have cropped up to meet the capacity shortfall. Given serious budget constraints faced by public authorities,4 large private participation is required to expand infrastructure, create adequate access and improve the quality of education. Fig 5 – Though down from 70% to 60%, public funds dominate education spend 20 30 40 50 60 70 FY51 FY56 FY61 FY66 FY71 FY76 FY81 FY86 FY91 FY96 FY01 FY06 FY11 (Shareofpub.inedu.spending,%) Source: Central Statistical Organisation, Anand Rathi Research Rising household spend: Rising affordability and increased awareness of the strong benefits of education, particularly technical and professional, have led to a major increase in the demand for education. The share of education in total consumer spend rises sharply from 1.4% for the poorest Fig 3 – Public education spend in India at 70% of total 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Indonesia SouthKorea US Japan India Australia UK Canada Mexico Netherlands Germany Russia Spain Poland France Italy Belgium Sweden Switzerland Brazil (Shareofpub.inedu.spend,decadalavg.,%) Source: World Bank, Anand Rathi Research Fig 4 – 260% jump in no. of technical colleges since 2005 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 (Numberofcolleges) Colleges-General Colleges-Technical Source: Ministry of Human Resource Development, Anand Rathi Research Factors such as lack of public funding, households’ willingness and ability to pay for quality education and public authorities’ pro-active stance on education reform are driving private investment in the sector
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 6 to over 10% for the richest. This indicates that as per head income increases in the country and more people transcend the poverty line, there should be explosive growth in household spend on education. Perceived quality gap in public education. Perceived quality gaps are driving even lower income students to shift from public education to private. This shift is happening even in the case of elementary education, despite the free tuition, mid-day meals, uniforms and books offered by public elementary education.5 As the proportion of students pursuing private education rises (see Fig 6), there is a corresponding increase in private investment entering the sector. Fig 6 – Rising proportion of students opting for private education 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Govt Pvt. Aided Pvt. Un- aided Govt Pvt. Aided Pvt. Un- aided Overall Technical (Shareinoverallstudents,%) 1996 2008 2012 Source: National Sample Survey Organisation, Anand Rathi Research Education reforms Despite the rising demand for skilled manpower as a result of India’s rapid economic growth, employers find a majority of new graduates are unemployable on account of inadequacies in the educational system.6 Consequently, legislative efforts are underway to reform the system. Key education bills are at different stages of deliberation in the Indian Parliament. These target improving quality, accessibility, transparency and competition in the sector. The Central government’s pro-active stance and supportive statements have created the impression that private investment in education is reaching inflexion point for explosive growth. Private education: The next five years Estimated at US$30bn currently, India’s private education industry is expected to grow to US$45bn by 2015. We expect dynamic growth in private investment in education simply because there is strong and rising demand for such services and the public education system is not equipped to supply the same in terms of either quality or quantity. Pending key changes in public policy on education, we expect three major trends to emerge over the next five years:  Incumbent private players to consolidate their position in formal education,  The integrated K12 model to come under attack with greater specialization at pre-school and secondary and higher levels, and  New private education players to compete in unregulated but highly lucrative areas such as skill and vocational training and private coaching. Ongoing education reforms should favour a rise in the valuation multiples of incumbents …we expect private players to defocus on K-12, the attractiveness of technical education to continue and skill and vocational training to be new growth opportunities
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 7 Incumbents to benefit Reputed incumbent private players in the regulated verticals of education stand to benefit for two reasons.  Implementation of the ongoing legislation measures on quality improvement (accreditation, weeding out of malpractices and academic depository) are likely to help the serious, credible private players. These measures, coupled with the conditions posed by the Right to Education (RTE) Act, should also create entry barriers for the new private players. Consequently, the new players are unlikely to make large investments in the highly regulated verticals of Indian education, particularly school education. The status quo on the non- profit clause for formal education means that major potential entrants (such as eminent foreign educational institutes) are likely to further defer their entry decisions. This is likely to increase the scarcity premium for the existing private institutions, both in terms of higher fees from students and better valuation premium from investors.  The willingness of Indian households to spend money on quality education provided by reputed organisations would pose serious challenges for most unorganised/stand-alone players and new entrants. As a result, the existing large domestic private players are likely to consolidate their positions. The incumbent institutions are equipped in terms of (1) appropriate institutional structuring to utilize the regulatory arbitrage and (2) ‘managing’ the education bureaucracy for any actual/perceived departure from the public policy mandated requirements. We expect the stronger incumbents to improve market share by bringing the stand-alone or small institutions within their fold. De-focus on elementary education to alter the K-12 model Mirroring the commitment of the state to make elementary education universal, the new Right to Education Act (RTE) makes it mandatory for elementary schools (standard I-VIII) to reserve 25% seats for free education for weaker sections, with a limited measure of compensation for lost tuition fees from the government. For existing K-12 schools, legal bifurcation of the play-school from elementary and secondary education would absolve private schools of any obligation to follow RTE norms at the pre-school level. In addition, both incumbents and new entrants to private school education are likely to defocus on elementary education and concentrate on pre-schools on the one end and on secondary and higher secondary levels on the other. Private schools do not have any obligation under the RTE for secondary and higher secondary education. The proportion of students pursing secondary/higher secondary education in private schools to those undergoing elementary education is just 30%. Yet, this has risen fast – from 17% in 1996. Further, household expenditure in private schools at the secondary and higher-secondary levels is double that of the spend at the elementary level. The clauses to regulate private schools through RTE may, therefore, end up harming the noble cause for which it was enacted. Major potential entrants (such as eminent foreign educational institutes) are likely to further defer their entry decisions. This is likely to increase the scarcity premium for existing private institutions
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 8 Enhancing of existing strength in unregulated segments Current public policy initiatives have not put in place any incentive mechanism to attract private investment into formal education. Moreover, we expect private players to defocus on school education, a vertical that currently accounts for the largest portion (~50%) of revenue for private education providers. Consequently, we expect private investment in education to remain focused mainly in areas where it is already strong – pre-school, technical education and private tuition. We expect private initiatives on skill training and vocational education to intensify considerably. It is reported that employers find 75% of fresh engineering graduates, even those from premiere institutes, not employable without additional skill training. This situation gives much scope for private investment in this area. India has always faced serious challenges in producing sufficient skilled technicians. The strong economic growth over the last decade and the consequent increase in the demand for such skills has further increased the demand for skill training. The key problem in the area of vocational training is that the aspirants for such training lack the finance to undertake such courses. The organised financial system generally does not extend such funding due to the high transaction cost of such small loans and the lack of bankable collateral. Currently, prospective employers are coming forward to sponsor such courses, often through in-house training facilities, backed by job guarantees at the end of the training. As the scale of such training increases, this segment of the education industry is likely to see rapid growth.
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 9 Rising trends in education spend Household spend on education is the chief source of revenue for private education providers, as 85% of the government spend on education goes to pay salaries. Sharply rising household spend (~17% annually since ’05, and 19% expected in the next three years) is driving the demand for private education. High concentration of demand – 57% spend in urban areas and 44% by the richest 10% of population – helps private education providers focus on location strategies. Tuition fees (34% of overall household education spend) are the largest source of revenue for private players. Within this, technical /professional education is the most lucrative segment (20% of household spend with just 2.6% of total student population). However, household spend on primary education (23% household spend with 47% of total student population) is likely to reduce with the enactment of the RTE Act. Urban-centric, concentrated growth Growth in public spend is trailing growth in household spend. India’s overall education spend to GDP rose from less than 1% in the early 1950s to over 5% currently (see Fig 7). Though growth in public spend on education has accelerated since the 1990s, it is now trailing the growth in household spend (see Fig 8). Urban households account for 57% of private spend. Urban households constitute 26% of the overall population, but account for 57% of overall private expenditure on education (see Fig 9). A sizable part of the rural student population travels to urban centres to avail of tertiary educational institutes. Therefore, a large part of education spend by rural households is in urban centres. This implies that under the current situation, it is not viable for private players to make major forays into rural education. Top 10% of population accounts for 44% of household spend. Education spend, as a proportion of overall consumer spend, rises sharply with the increase in overall capacity to spend (see Fig 10). The top 10% of population, in terms of spend, accounts for 44% of the overall private spend on education. The top 20% accounts for 59% of spend. At the lowest end, the poorest 10% of the rural population spends 1.4% of their On a per capita basis, the richest 10% of the urban population spends 90 times more on education than the poorest 10% of the rural population. The main opportunity for private entrepreneurs, therefore, is in capturing students from higher- income categories Fig 7 – Education spend to GDP up from 1% to over 5% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 FY51 FY56 FY61 FY66 FY71 FY76 FY81 FY86 FY91 FY96 FY01 FY06 FY11 (EducationspendingtoGDP,%) 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.8 3.5 4.2 4.9 5.6 (EducationspendingtoGDP,%) Pvt. edu. spending /GDP Pub. edu. spending /GDP Overall edu. spending /GDP (RHS) Source: Central Statistical Organisation, Anand Rathi Research Fig 8 – Private spend on education accelerating since the ’70s 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s (Realgrowthineducationspending,%) Pvt. edu. Spending Pub. edu. Spending Source: Central Statistical Organisation, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 10 consumer spend on education and at the highest end, the richest 10% of the urban population spends 10.3% of their consumer spend on education. On a per capita basis, the richest 10% of the urban population spends 90 times more on education than the poorest 10% of the rural population. The main opportunity for private entrepreneurs in India’s education sector, therefore, is in capturing students from higher-income categories. Consequently, revenue generation for entrepreneurs in private education lies in opening institutions in strategic locations, rather than in opening a large number of institutions. Scope of private education The not-for-profit status of formal education has led to a limited role for private educational institutes in school and general (non-technical, non- professional) higher education. Within formal education, private institutes dominate technical/professional education. Parallel education and lucrative segments in ancillary education are also areas of robust opportunity for the private sector. Technical education, the most attractive segment With just 2.6% of overall students, technical education accounts for 20% of the overall household spend on education. Yet, budgetary support to technical education accounts for just 4% of the overall budgetary support to education. Interestingly, 55% of students pursuing technical education are enrolled with private unaided institutions (see Fig 11). This is the only segment where a majority of students prefer private education. Despite the relatively small size of the segment within the formal education system, technical education seems to be the most attractive destination for private investment. To a lesser degree, vocational institutions also follow the same pattern. Technical education offers the best opportunity for private players in formal education … textbooks and coaching are niche opportunities …85% of the public spend on education goes to pay salaries, so private investment in education mostly depends on household spend Fig 9 – Top 20% accounts for 60% of pvt. education spend 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100 (Fractile class by consumer spending) (Shareintotalpvt.edu.spend,%) Rural Urban Source: National Sample Survey Organisation and Anand Rathi Research Fig 10 – Sharp rise in education spend with affordability 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100 (Fractile class by consumer spending) (Edu.spendintotalpvt.spending,%) Rural Urban Source: National Sample Survey Organisation and Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 11 Fig 11 – Over 50% students of technical education go to private colleges 66 64 55 51 22 34 61 24 21 24 20 55 47 24 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Primary Middle S & HS Above HS general Technical Vocational All (ShareinNo.ofstudents,%) Govt Local body Pvt. Aided Pvt. Un-aided NR Source: National Sample Survey Organisation, Anand Rathi Research; Note: NR stands for not reported Tuition fee the biggest opportunity at 34% of household spend Tuition fee is the single largest component of private expenditure on education and accounts for 34% of overall expenditure. Over one-third of total tuition fee is spent on technical education (see Fig 12). Of the total private expenditure on technical education, 58% is on tuition fees (see Fig 13). Of the total private spend on tuition fee, 62% goes to private institutions (see Fig 14). Fig 12 – Purpose-wise utilization of private spend on education Tuition fee Exam fee Books etc. Uniform Transport Private coaching Others Total (By segment of education, %) Primary 6.9 3.1 4.6 3.3 2.0 1.8 0.9 22.6 Middle 4.2 2.0 4.0 2.4 1.2 2.4 0.7 16.7 Secondary & HS 6.7 3.7 6.1 2.5 1.9 5.7 1.1 27.8 Above HS 3.8 2.1 2.3 0.2 1.4 1.1 0.5 11.6 Technical/professional 11.6 3.8 2.1 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.6 20.0 Vocational 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 Total 33.8 15.0 19.2 8.8 7.8 11.6 3.8 100.0 (By school management type, %) Govt./local body 4.3 4.3 9.0 4.3 1.9 5.5 1.6 30.9 Pvt. aided 8.2 3.7 3.7 1.5 1.9 2.8 0.8 22.5 Pvt. un-aided 20.9 6.9 6.3 2.9 4.0 3.1 1.4 45.4 NR 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1 Total 33.8 15.0 19.2 8.8 7.8 11.6 3.8 100.0 Source: NSSO & ARR The per head tuition fee at various segments and types of institutions show several trends, which include the following:  Tuition fees go up progressively in general education as the level of education rises. The maximum jump happens between higher secondary (HS) and above HS level.  For similar types of educational institutions (government, private- aided, private non-aided) tuition fees for technical education are four times higher, at the minimum, than for general education. For government-owned education institutions, the fees are ~30 times higher.  Comparing similar levels of education, tuition fees are always higher in urban areas compared to rural areas. Tuition fees for technical education are four times higher than for general education
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 12  In the case of general education, tuition fees for private-aided and non-aided institutions are 4.5 times and 8 times higher, respectively, than for government institutions. In the case of technical education, the percentage dispersion is far lower – tuition fees for private-aided and non-aided institutions are 2 times and 2.5 times higher, respectively, than government institutions.  Tuition fees, at a similar level of education, are always higher for boys than for girls. Books (19% of spend) and coaching (12%) are lucrative niches Next to tuition fees, spend on books and stationary, at 19%, is the second- largest component of total household spend on education. Spend on books is largely associated with school education, particularly secondary and HS level. In per head terms, spend on books increases 30-100% as a student progresses from primary to middle, to secondary & HS and above HS. The large market size and considerable per head spend, however, make secondary and HS the most lucrative part of the textbook market. Private coaching accounts for 12% of household spend on education. Interestingly, unlike tuition fees and books, where the per head spend by students studying at private non-aided schools is the highest, in the case of private coaching, students of private-aided schools spend the most. At 50% of the total spend on private coaching, secondary and HS levels are the most lucrative. Catering to public spend offers limited growth potential Several private institutions in education, especially from the ancillary segment, cater to public educational institutions.7 Yet, the scope of catering to public spend is not very large, since over 50% of overall public funding on education and 85% of such funds, excluding transfers (for instance, to schools owned by corporations, municipalities and private- aided schools), goes to paying staff salaries (see Fig 15). Therefore, private investment in education largely caters to private educational institutes. Fig 13 – Tuition fees account for 24-58% of household spend 30 25 24 33 58 49 34 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Primary Middle Secd. & HS Above HS Technical Vocational Total (Shareinprivatespending,%) Tuition fee Exam fee, etc. Books etc. Uniform Transport Private coaching Others Source: NSSO, Anand Rathi Research Fig 14 –Highest spend by public school students on coaching 13 29 47 49 24 48 42 31 62 46 33 33 51 27 36 45 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Tuition fee Exam fee, etc. Books etc. Uniform Transport Private coaching Others Total (Shareinprivatespending,%) Govt/Local body Pvt. Aided Pvt. Un-aided Others Source: NSSO, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 13 Fig 15 – About 85% of public education spend is on salaries (excl. transfers) 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 (Employeecomp.topublicedu.spending,%) Compensation of employees to total spend Compensation of employees to total spend net transfers Source: Central Statistical Organisation, Anand Rathi Research RTE limits the potential of primary education With 47% of the total student population studying in primary schools, 50% of the government’s (Centre and states, together) budgetary allocation on education is directed towards to this segment. Primary education, however, receives a much lower proportion (23%) of household spend on education. Though only 24% of primary students attend private schools, expenditure by households on such students accounts for 60% of the overall household spend on primary education (see Fig 16). The large student strength, substantial budgetary allocation and considerable household spend make primary education an attractive niche for private entrepreneurs. However, enactment of the RTE Act (which makes it mandatory for schools to reserve 25% of seats for weaker sections of society) has substantially reduced the attractiveness of primary education for private entrepreneurs. (See subsequent chapter: ‘Public Policy: The Good, Bad & Ugly’.) Fig 16 – Composition of students and private spending on education Primary Middle Secondary & Higher Secondary Above Higher Secondary General Technical Vocational All Students (share, %) Government 31.0 15.7 10.8 2.9 0.6 0.1 61.1 Local body 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 - - 3.9 Pvt. aided 2.6 2.5 3.6 1.5 0.6 0.0 10.8 Pvt. un-aided 11.1 5.2 4.7 1.2 1.4 0.1 23.7 NR 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 Total 47.1 24.6 19.8 5.7 2.6 0.2 100.0 Private spending on education (share, %) Government 5.1 5.6 9.8 5.4 3.4 0.2 29.5 Local body 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.1 - - 1.5 Pvt. aided 3.2 2.9 6.7 3.4 6.1 0.2 22.5 Pvt. un-aided 13.6 7.7 10.5 2.5 10.3 0.8 45.4 NR 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.2 Total 22.7 16.7 27.8 11.6 20.0 1.2 100.0 Source: NSSO & ARR. Share of private education in household spend tops in primary level The share of students enrolling in private institutions in the general stream above primary education, as a percentage of overall student strength in the respective segments, is 20-24%, which is lower than the primary level (see Fig 11). The share of private education in household spend actually
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 14 declines from 60% for primary to 46% at middle school, 38% in secondary and HS and 22% post HS general education. This, combined with the progressive reduction of student strength in higher education, makes these verticals less interesting for private investment.
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 15 Pre-schools: Legally for-profit Pre-schools are outside the official formal educational system and there is little government spend on this segment. This enables private entrepreneurs to legally operate pre-schools for profit. Rising urbanization, the increasing proportion of women joining the workforce, rising aspirations for quality education for offspring, and affordability are factors driving the strong growth in this segment. High growth, low entry barriers, low-funding requirements and the virtual absence of public policy restrictions make this segment attractive. We estimate private revenue in the pre-school segment at US$2bn in 2012 and US$2.9bn in 2015. RTE norms are expected to tilt the balance in favour of pure pre-school and against integrated pre-schools with K-12. Strong growth, low funding requirements According to World Bank data, the size of the pre-school segment in India was about US$1.3bn in 2005. Industry estimates compounded annualised growth rate (CAGR) for the segment at ~35%. We estimate the segment size at US$2bn in 2012 and US$2.9bn in 2015 (see Fig 17). Pre-schools lay the foundation for formal education. They typically cater to the age group of 1-4 years and may also offer nursery, junior kindergarten and senior kindergarten classes. Rising urbanization, increased proportion of women joining the workforce, rising aspirations for quality education for offspring and improved affordability are factors driving the strong growth in this segment. High growth, low entry barriers, low-funding requirements and the virtual absence of public policy restrictions – including the policy relating to non-for- profit status – make this segment attractive to investors. With low capital requirement, pre-schools possess a scaleable model, especially with regard to franchises. Fig 17 – Pre-school: market-size estimation 2010 2015 Population (1-4 years, '000) Urban 38,268 39,818 Rural 90,316 87,080 Pre-school enrolment (%) Urban 25 33 Rural 5 5 Fees (`/year) Urban 9,000 9,600 Rural 2,400 2,640 Revenue (`bn) 97 138 Revenue (US$m) 2.0 2.9 Source: United Nations Population Statistics, Anand Rathi Research Focus on K-12 admission helps increase fees Unorganized neighbourhood institutions currently dominate the pre- school segment. However, this situation is changing: 11 major playschool chains and about 10 smaller organized players are making strong headway in the segment (Anonymous, 2011). The virtual absence of public policy restrictions – such as the policy relating to non-for-profit status – makes this segment attractive to investors
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 16 Fees charged by pre-schools depend on the spending power of the local area in which they operate. Two hours of playschool activity fees may be anywhere between `1,000-12,000/- per month in the major cities (see Fig 18). The amount is much lower in smaller towns. The revenue-expenditure streams for pre-schools in India are presented in Fig 19. Most parents enrol their children in play schools when they are a year old, to meet the challenges of the entrance interview for admission to the K-12 school of their choice.8 Preparing students for interviews for admission into reputable K-12 schools has become a key selling idea to enrol kids for play schools. Cashing in on this opportunity, several schools, particularly the new K-12 schools, have now started their own play schools. In areas where the elementary/K-12 is at a distance from the city area, parents tend to send their children to nearby pre-schools. Fig 18 – Pre-school: annual revenue estimation Premium school in metros Mid-segment school in metros Tier-II towns Admission fee (`) 10,000 3,000 1500 Annual tuition fee (`) 72,000 27,000 15,000 Other revenue (uniform, books etc) (`) 7,000 5,000 2,000 Average capacity of a pre-school 80 160 120 Annual revenue of a pre-school (`m) 7.1 5.6 2.2 Source: Anand Rathi Research Fig 19 – Revenue / expenditure stream for pre-schools Pre-school Revenue Expenditure Admission Fee AccessoriesTution Fee Day Care Teacher Training Lease / Rent Staff Salary Supplier Cost Misc. Expenses Source: Anand Rathi Research Business model for pre-schools Being predominantly neighbourhood institutions, pre-schools address a micro market and are driven by local conditions. Individual pre-schools, therefore, require low capital as compared to other educational institutes. In addition, no education board regulates these schools. However, branding and an internal set of teaching structures are increasingly becoming mandatory due to the increasing demands of parents. This, in turn, has thrown up a huge opportunity for organized players that have the resources to open multiple centres. There are many models of operations in the pre-school segment. The key models are: owned and franchisee. For example, Kidzee (part of Zee Learn) follows a predominantly franchisee model, while Tree House, another major pre-school player, has 70-75% own centres. The business models of the major organized pre-school players are presented in Fig 20. Franchisee models offer faster scalability, as the content is ready and there is no incremental cost to the franchisor in terms of manpower capital investment. In most cases, royalty and the license fees received have 80-85% EBITDA margin. The franchisor’s only major expense is on advertisements.
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 17 This model, however, comes with its own challenges, including dilution of quality of teaching, cash leakage for the franchisor in terms of numbers that are reported for royalty and the high churn rate among local partners, as the business has a payback of 3-4 years. Some of these can be addressed by selecting proper partners and regular monitoring by the franchisor. Financial models for pre-schools Both at the EBITDA and at PAT levels, the own-school model is less profitable than the franchisor model. However, the own-school model provides greater quality control and cash flow certainty. Greater capital expenditure requirement under the own-school model, however, makes the franchisee model more scaleable. Fig. 21 provides the unit level comparison for pre-schools operating in various market segments under both franchisee- and owned-models at a steady state of operations with optimum capacity utilized. Fig. 22 provides a similar financial model for the franchisor. Better profit margins are earned by opening own outlets than by being a franchisee. In the case of the franchisee, he has to pay for the ongoing royalty and has to also incur higher capital expenditure as license fees paid to franchisor is taken as a part of capital expenditure/sunk cost. Yet, access to better course structure, teacher training and, perhaps most importantly, a better-known brand name is tilting the preference in favour of franchisee models versus the stand-alone neighbourhood school. Fig 20 – Business models of the key pre-school players Euro Kids Kidzee Tree House Kangaroo Kids Apple Kids Type of model ~90% franchisee ~95-99% franchisee 65-70% owned ~94% franchisee Region pan-India pan-India western India pan-India South-India Total centres 841 758 238 80 200+ Total students 43,732 45,000 13,090 3,600 13,462 Avg. fees (`'000 / p.a) 15-45 12-40 15-40 60-100 25-40 Source: Industry, Anand Rathi Research Fig 21 – Pre-school unit-level matrix for own / franchisee schools Own schools Franchisee schools (`m) Premium school in metro Mid-segment school in metro Tier-II town Premium school in metro Mid-segment school in metro Tier-II town Revenues – pre-school (Fig.18) 7.1 5.6 2.2 7.1 5.6 2.2 Other activities 1.9 2.9 1.4 1.9 2.9 1.4 Total revenues 9.0 8.5 3.7 9.0 8.5 3.7 Staff salary 0.7 1.3 0.5 0.7 1.3 0.5 Lease rent (roughly 20-25% of sales) 2.3 1.7 0.7 2.3 1.7 0.7 Content 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 SG&A 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 Royalty to franchisor (10-15%) - - - 1.4 1.3 0.4 EBITDA 5.6 4.9 2.2 4.4 3.9 1.9 EBITDA margins (%) 61.7 58.2 60.2 49.2 45.7 52.7 Depreciation 1.0 1.0 0.6 1.4 1.4 0.8 PBT 4.6 3.9 1.6 3.0 2.5 1.2 Tax 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 PAT 3.2 2.7 1.1 2.1 1.7 0.8 PAT margins (%) 34.9 32.0 30.3 23.2 20.1 22.1 One-time license fees - - - 2.0 2.0 0.8 CAPEX 5.0 5.0 3.0 5.0 5.0 3.0 ROI (%) 63.1 54.3 36.9 30.0 24.4 21.3 Source: Industry, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 18 From the franchisor’s point of view, each incremental unit that is franchised helps substantially increase its margins, as on a specific unit there is very limited cost incurred. The franchisor enjoys anywhere between 74-85% EBITDA margins on all centres that are franchised. This calculation captures only the annual inflows without considering the one- time licensee fees that the franchisor receives at the beginning of the franchisee tenure. Fig 22 – Pre-school: unit-level matrix for the franchisor (`m) Income for franchisor Premium school in metros Mid-segment school in metros Tier-II towns Royalty revenues (Fig. 21) 1.36 1.27 0.37 Content 0.02 0.05 0.04 Teacher training 0.03 0.07 0.02 SG&A 0.14 0.13 0.04 EBITDA / PBT 1.16 1.03 0.27 EBITDA margins (%) 85.75 80.94 73.61 Tax 0.36 0.32 0.08 PAT 0.80 0.71 0.19 PAT margins (%) 59.17 55.85 50.79 Source: Industry, Anand Rathi Research RTE Act to boost the pure pre-school model The RTE Act mandates that private pre-schools providing elementary education (standard I-VIII), need to admit 25% of the students from the weaker sections and disadvantaged groups and provide them free education. This provision, however, would not be applicable for pre- schools that are not part of an institute that offers elementary education. Therefore, private pure pre-schools stand to benefit from this development. The basic strengths and weaknesses of the pre-school model have been tabulated in Fig 23. Fig 23 – Porter’s five forces Porter’s five forces Degree of threat Remarks Bargaining power of buyers Low Demand outnumbers supply by huge margin and hence clients (students / parents) have very little say. Bargaining power of suppliers Medium Getting quality teachers is difficult. This is addressed by teacher training programmes and technological aids Threat of substitutes Low to medium The trend towards quality / branded pre-schools is picking up. However, the high fees charged in such schools allow local mom & pop shops to co-exist. K- 12 schools, starting with pre-schools in the same premises, also pose some threat. Threat of new entrants Medium to high Launching a pre-school is easy as it requires low investment, no regulatory issues are involved and content requirement is generally basic. These schools can pull clients, as it is a localized market. New entrants, however, face issues with regard to establishing their reputation. Industry competitors Medium to high Most players want to have a pre-school chain to provide students as feeders for the K-12 institutes. Source: Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 19 K-12: large spend, highly regulated While the size of spend in this sector is around US$75bn per year, the predominant part of this comprises public spend. We estimate revenues for private players in the K-12 segment at US$15bn in 2012 and US$20bn in 2015. The RTE requires private schools to offer 25% of seats free to weaker sections and disadvantaged groups. This coupled with stringent and unequal penal provisions – such as compulsory closure for private schools (vs. public schools) that do not meet RTE norms – is likely to deter fresh private investment in the segment. K-12 education K-12 is the most regulated segment of India’s education sector. India has an elaborate structure for K-12 education (see Fig. 24). While the size of spending in this sector is around US$75bn per year, the predominant part of this is public spend. The opportunities for private players in this segment are valued at around US$15bn and witness a CAGR of 15%. In addition to the not-for-profit clause, private schools also face the RTE Act mandate that requires 25% of seats to be given free to students from weaker sections and disadvantaged groups. Despite the non-profit clause, 24% of the primary (standard I-IV), 21% of middle (standard V-VIII) and 24% of the secondary and higher secondary (standard IX to XII) students attend private schools. This percentage has been increasing over the years (see Fig 25). The RTE also mandates closure of private schools if they do not meet the stipulated conditions on teaching and physical infrastructure. Moreover, public policy at the state level is now focussed on controlling the fee structure in private schools.8 Such public policy stances are unlikely to induce large private investment in the sector, especially from serious educational enterprises. Given that education is a state subject, each state has different laws for K- 12 schools. The basic requirement of not-for-profit operations is common in all states. However, private players have moved around the Act to create various structures that indirectly generate profit in K-12 schools. Fig 24 – K-12 schools: management structure Structure by management K-12 Education Government Private aided Private unaided Central schools State schools Kendriya Vidyalaya Sainik schools Navodaya schools Municipal schools District schools Village schools Source: Anand Rathi Research. Fig 25 – More school students joining private schools 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Primary Middle Secondary and higher secondary (Proportionofstudentsattendingpvt.school,%) 1996 2008 2012 Source: NSSO, Anand Rathi Research The over-regulated K-12 industry segment is likely to deter new, serious, and credible private sector players from entering the field. The RTE norms have put an unequal burden on private schools (vs public schools), which should lead to changes in the business model
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 20 Asset-heavy business model In the case of an asset-heavy model, apart from establishing a school as a trust/society/section 25 company, the private education company creates two separate companies, namely an infrastructure company and a management company. The infrastructure company has all the assets – i.e. land, building, furniture – and provides the same to the trust on a long- term lease basis. The management company provides the trust with services such as content, accessories and teacher training and, in turn, charges fees. These contracts are generally long-term – a minimum of 30 years – if not, getting affiliation from boards could become difficult. In this model, the trust hires the teachers and provides salary and other local miscellaneous expenses. Revenue is initially recorded in the books of the trust and is transferred to companies by way of lease rent and management fees (see Fig 26). Under the asset-heavy model, a K-12 school becomes cash-flow positive in at least 5-6 years. It takes even longer – 10- 12 years – for the school to reach maximum capacity. High capex, with a long gestation period for payback, and issues related to acquisition of land make it difficult to ramp up several schools simultaneously. On an average, to set up a medium quality school in a tier-I city requires `200-250m for capex and working capital. Fig 26 – Asset-heavy K-12 model Management company School trust Infra company Management Fees Land & Building Lease & Rent Consulting / Content Holding company Source: Anand Rathi Research Dry management – Asset-light business model The long gestation period, coupled with substantial upfront capex requirement, under the asset-heavy model, led some private education players to approach local partners that have the ability to invest in infrastructure and are keen in being involved in the sector. The private player manages the operations of the school and gets management fees in turn (see Fig 27). Several existing schools also give away management contracts to various private players. Fig 27 – Asset-light K-12 model Management company School trust Local partner Consulting Royalty / Management fee Land & Building Lease & Rent Source: Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 21 Other variations exist. For example, certain private education providers tie up with real estate developers. The developer builds school buildings in and around large residential projects and private education providers create a trust/society school, taking the property on lease. Infrastructure and management is provided to such schools by separate entities created by the private player. There some examples of schools set up through public-private partnership (PPP). Under this model, the public sector entity provides the land at a concession and, in return, the private school provides free education to a predetermined proportion of students under conditions set out by the public sector entity. The revenue-expenditure model and branch network of major K-12 chains are presented in Fig 28 and Fig 29, respectively. Basic strengths and weaknesses of the private K-12 institutions are presented in Fig 30. Fig 31 provides brief details on some of the major private players in the K-12 segment. The revenue-expenditure model of a typical K-12 school from inception until the twelfth year is presented in Fig 32. Fig 28 – Revenue-expenditure model of K-12 Schools (K12) Revenue Expenditure Admission fee Donations Tution fee Other Extracurricular activities Books Hostel Bus Canteen Uniform Lease / Rent Salary & welfare Electricity SG&A Capital expenditure Teaching staff Non teaching staff Furniture Equipment Operating expenditure Source: Anand Rathi Research RTE to lead to defocusing on K-12 by private players The RTE Act requires that for elementary education (standard I-VIII), private schools offer 25% of the seats free to weaker sections and disadvantaged groups. The government would reimburse private schools for this. We estimate such reimbursements to be `.3,600 per student per year. Our estimates suggest that such reimbursement would be considerably revenue decretive for the private schools (See details in Annex I). Moreover, the Act puts severe teaching and non-teaching infrastructure requirements on private schools, failing which they would face steep penalties and even compulsory closure. Incidentally, for similar transgressions, public schools would not face any specific and time-bound penalty. Such measures are likely to deter fresh private investment in the segment. Even the existing players are likely to switch from the asset- heavy to the asset-light model. Further regulation in tuition fees in a few states (Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra) will only add to the problems of private players.
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 22 Digital content causing competition to scale up Providing of multimedia content to private schools was a trend initially started by Educomp, which is a pioneer in digitizing content for sale to private schools. Over the years, the provision of such services has been seen as an aid to make an inroad into the supply system of the various schools and colleges in order to supply other goods and services. However, the success of Educomp’s Smart Classes has prompted the competition to scale up operations (that were initially very small). More than six players have entered this segment and are in direct competition to Educomp. We believe that though there is a big market for selling content in schools, the same is slowly becoming a commodity, with almost all the players providing a similar type of service – the key differentiator being the pricing. A recent trend is for schools to invest in hardware on their own and to offer extra perks, both monetary as well as non-monetary, to teachers in order to create digital content in-house. However, this is not on par with what organized players are offering. Being proprietary, the content can be upgraded at regular intervals and used in all classes, unlike in the case of paid content, which is currently used only for select classes. Fig 29 – Company-wise rate per class for ICT (`) Company Product Price per class room/ per month Educomp Smart Class 10,000 Mexus Education IKEN 5,000 Next Education TeachNext 6,500 Pearson / Edurite DigiClass 5,000 HCL digischool 5,000 Tata Interactive systems CLASSEDGE 8,800 Everonn iSchools 7,000 NIIT nGuru 8,000 Source: Companies Fig 30 – Porter’s five forces Porter’s five forces Degree of threat Remarks Bargaining power of buyers Low Limited number of K-12 schools with an even lower number of private schools, which are generally perceived to be of superior quality, leaves limited option for students. Bargaining power of suppliers Medium Scarcity of teachers is acute. This is addressed by moving to the "teacher-assisted model" from the old "teacher-led" model. Threat of substitutes Low With poor quality of government schools and increasing awareness among parents regarding the merits of imparting quality education, the market share of private schools is increasing rapidly. Threat of new entrants Low to medium High investment, long gestation periods with back- ended returns and regulatory issues act as barriers for new entrants. The conditions that private schools have to meet under the RTE Act are likely to further reduce competition. Industry competitors Low to medium Demand for quality education is too high to be met by the current private players in the industry. However, with the considerable increase in high-end private schools in various metros and tier-I towns, the competition among the private schools may intensify in some of the micro markets. Source: Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 23 Fig 31 – Salient features of select major K-12 players Name No. of schools Description Bharatiya Vidya Bhavan's Schools 30 They run around 30 schools across India, many are run in association with third parties. They also run an Indian Central School in Singapore Billabong Schools 57 Part of the Kangaroo Kids group Delhi Public Schools 130 One of the most prominent and largest K-12 players Gems Education 60 52 schools across the globe and eight in India, has acquired stake in Everonn Indus World Schools 17 Operates schools across India K-12 Techno Services 70 Owns management rights for a number of K12 schools. Part of the Gowthan Educational Institutions KidZee High & Mount Litera Zee schools 20 Part of Zee Learn, operates across India People Combine 4 Mainly in AP, provides a range of IB, GCSE and CBSE education. Radcliffe schools 33 Operates schools across India Ryan International 115 Large player, is now expanding overseas Spring Dales 4 Focus on North India The Millennium schools 86 Own/dry management schools affiliated with - IB / IGCSE / CBSE and ICSE boards. Part of Educomp Treehouse 16 Concentrated in Gujarat and Maharashtra VIBGYOR 10 Operates schools mainly in and around Mumbai Witty International 5 ICSE/ CBSE / IB/ IGCSE boards. Two schools in Mumbai; one in Udaipur Source: Companies, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 24 Fig 32 – Unit-level matrix for K-12 institution from inception up to 12 years Yrs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Grade Nursery- IV Nursery- V Nursery- VI Nursery- VII Nursery- VIII Nursery- IX Nursery- X Nursery- XI Nursery- XII Nursery- XII Nursery- XII Total capacity Nos. 1,120 1,280 1,440 1,600 1,760 1,920 2,080 2,240 2,400 2,400 2,400 Capacity utilization % 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 90 95 100 100 Students on roll Nos. 280 448 648 880 1,144 1,440 1,768 2,016 2,280 2,400 2,400 New students Nos. 280 168 200 232 264 296 328 248 264 120 - Fresh students in nursery Nos. - - - - - - - - - - 160 Total new students Nos. 280 168 200 232 264 296 328 248 264 120 160 Tuition fees `(pm) 2,500 2,750 3,025 3,328 3,660 4,026 4,429 4,872 5,359 5,895 6,484 Growth % 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Admission fees (one time) ` 20,000 20,000 20,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 Other misc. fees ` 2,500 2,750 3,025 3,328 3,660 4,026 4,429 4,872 5,359 5,895 6,484 Growth % 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Tuition fees `m 8.4 14.8 23.5 35.1 50.2 69.6 94.0 117.9 146.6 169.8 186.7 Admission fees `m 5.6 3.4 4.0 5.8 6.6 7.4 9.8 7.4 7.9 3.6 4.8 Other misc. Fees `m 0.7 1.2 2.0 2.9 4.2 5.8 7.8 9.8 12.2 14.1 15.6 Total revenue `m 15 19 29 44 61 83 112 135 167 188 207 Teaching (1:25) Nos 11 18 26 35 46 58 71 81 91 96 96 Avg. salary of teaching staff ` 15,000 16,500 18,150 19,965 21,962 24,158 26,573 29,231 32,154 35,369 38,906 Growth % 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Teaching staff salary `m 2 4 6 9 13 18 25 31 38 44 49 Non-teaching staff Nos 9 15 22 22 29 36 44 50 57 60 60 Avg. salary of non-teaching staff ` 12,000 13,200 14,520 15,972 17,569 19,326 21,259 23,385 25,723 28,295 31,125 Growth % 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Non-teaching staff salary `m 1 3 4 5 7 9 12 15 19 22 24 Total employee cost `m 4 6 10 14 20 27 37 46 57 66 73 As % of revenue % 24.1 33.2 34.9 31.1 32.4 32.9 32.9 34.0 34.2 35.3 35.2 Other operating cost `m 7 7 9 13 18 25 33 37 46 52 57 As % of revenue % 45.0% 35.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 27.5% 27.5% 27.5% 27.5% Total cost `m 10 13 19 27 38 52 70 83 103 118 130 EBITDA `m 5 6 10 17 23 31 41 52 64 70 77 Margins % 30.9 31.8 35.1 38.9 37.6 37.1 37.1 38.5 38.3 37.2 37.3 Depreciation `m 4.3 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Interest @ 12% `m 11.1 13.8 14.7 15.0 15.0 14.6 13.3 10.9 7.8 - - PBT `m (10.8) (12.4) (9.3) (2.9) 3.0 11.1 23.2 36.1 51.0 64.7 72.3 Tax @ 33% `m - - - - - - 0.6 11.9 16.8 21.4 23.9 PAT `m (10.8) (12.4) (9.3) (2.9) 3.0 11.1 22.6 24.2 34.1 43.4 48.5 PAT margins % - - - - 4.9 13.4 20.2 17.9 20.5 23.1 23.4 Capex `m 150 20 20 10 Depreciation `m 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Net block `m 150 166 181 186 181 176 171 166 161 156 151 146 WC loan `m 50 Loan (debt : equity - 1:1) `m 75 110 120 125 125 125 117.8 103.3 78.5 52.2 17.0 - ROE % (8.7) (9.9) (7.5) (2.4) 2.4 8.9 18.1 19.3 27.3 34.7 38.8 ROCE % 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.5 6.0 8.7 12.4 16.7 21.2 24.7 27.4 Please note the basic assumptions 1. Land is purchased and construction started in year 1 and then the same is done phase-wise on a need basis. 2. As per CBSE / ICSE norms affiliation can be applied for only after running the school for a minimum of four years. 3. Class VIII onwards cannot be started unless affiliation is granted. 4. Assumed 40 students per class with an average of four divisions per standard as installed capacity 5. Non-teaching staff is in the ratio of 1:30 for the first 6yrs, when the maximum students are from Nursery-IV; later the ratio tilts to 1:40 6. After the 10th year, it becomes a steady state annuity model 7. We assume the trust will not reinvest and hence will not get tax benefits. If the trust reinvests, it is bound to get significant tax breaks. Source: Companies, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 25 Higher education: Capex heavy Higher education, especially technical education, has been attracting large private investment since 2005. Private opportunity in technical education is US$7bn in 2012 and is set to grow to US$12bn by 2015. General (non-technical) higher education offers private education opportunity of US$1.5bn in 2012 and this is set to grow to an estimated US$2bn by 2015. Legislative measures to strengthen accreditation, guard against malpractices and set up an academic depository are likely to help the stronger incumbents. Eminent foreign education providers are unlikely to make a large entry in the segment as long as the non-profit tag remains attached to formal education. This should also contain competition and further help the incumbents. Strong opportunity in technical education The total spend in this segment is around US$9bn per year for general (non-technical) higher education and US$10bn per year for technical/ professional education. Within this, opportunities for private education providers for general higher education are around US$1.5bn and around US$7bn for technical/professional education. For general higher education, business opportunities for the private sector are growing at a CAGR of 12.5% and at 20% CAGR for technical/professional education. Like K-12, higher education also entails front-loaded capex and back ended returns. Apart from getting recognized with a board of education (in this case a university / AICTE) a college/deemed university also needs to follow the local state-specific rules. Regulations for higher education are much clearer than that for K-12 (see Fig 33). Some states require the land and/or building to be in the name of the trust, especially in the case of universities, while others have granted approvals even if contracts are signed for a long-term lease agreement between the property owner and the trust. However, the lease agreement needs to be at least for 30-40 years. Type of business models – distance vs. class room The classroom-based higher education model is capex-heavy, as it has various infrastructure and staff requirements. Distance education is asset- light and has a wider reach, with local partners operating as selling agents as well as conducting examinations. The salient features of classroom- based and distance learning models for higher education are presented in Fig 34. Fig 35 provides the major facets of the current system of higher education in India from the perspective of private education. Fig 36 provides salient details on some of the major private players in higher education. A stylised revenue-expenditure model for college education is presented in Fig 37. Technical education to remain the focus of private players. Continuation of the non-profit clause likely to deter the entry of serious foreign players
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 26 Fig 33 – Basic business model for distance learning university UGC University trust LC Student Corporate entity Provides infrastructure at local area Local faculty support for counseling & tutoring Supports placements Creates awareness Appoints LCs Develops content Supports admission process Mails course material Supports in hiring faculty Supports student placements Defines eligibility Defines curriculum Approves course material Approves programs with appropriate certification i.e. diplomas, degrees e.g. BSE (IT), B.Com Admits students Conducts exams Awards degrees Service Payments Source: Anand Rathi Research Fig 34 – Features of classroom vs. distant learning model in higher education Parameters Classroom based Distance learning Investments High capex with working capital requirement, until optimum capacity is reached. Usually takes 8-9 years for pay back Limited capex to the extent of content creation and negligible working capital requirement Enrollments Capacity limited to the extent of availability of appropriate infrastructure. More of an arithmetic flow as seats increase gradually. Reach is limited to the location of the campus. No limit on enrollments Staff Teaching faculty is the biggest staff pool required. Availability of this is a big issue. Content creators, examiners and marketing staff are required. Preference Preferred for under-graduation level courses and where full-time attendance is required – such as courses involving practicals, MBA and other technical courses. Preferred to enhance skills especially with professionals with full-time work. For example, finance courses. Returns Takes 7-8 years to get returns on investment. However, post this the returns are sustainable. Operationally profitable from the first year. However, returns are more volatile as the number of students may vary widely from year to year. Source: Anand Rathi Research Fig 35 – Porter’s five forces Porter’s five forces Degree of threat Remarks Bargaining power of buyers Low Limited seats in colleges Bargaining power of suppliers Medium to high Very few qualified teachers available. This is addressed by providing distance learning courses. Threat of substitutes Low Govt. colleges / universities are not able to handle the current demand and hence are slowly opening up the sector with deemed universities. Threat of new entrants Low to medium High investment, long gestation period with back- ended returns and regulatory issues keeps new entrants at bay. Industry competitors Medium Demand too high to be met by current players in the industry. However, in streams like engineering and MBA stiff competition exists, with most students keen on reliable names that provide placements. Source: Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 27 Fig 36 – Salient features of select major private players in higher education Company Location / main campus Model of operation Streams Est. number of students Amity University Noida, NCR Private University Diversified > 50,000 Bharatiya Vidya Bhavan Trust Mumbai, Maharashtra Colleges, Polytechnics in India and abroad Engineering, Management, Others NA ICFAI Hyderabad, AP Private University, Colleges, Certification programmers Management, Others > 10,000 Lovely Professional University Phagwara, Punjab Private University Diversified 24,000 on-campus Manipal Education Group Manipal, Karnataka Private Universities, Vocational, Education, E- learning, Overseas Universities Engineering, Medicine, Financial Services training, Others Over 18,000 on- campus, and 100,000 in distance education Symbiosis International University Pune, Maharashtra Private University Diversified >15,000 VIT University Vellore, Tamil Nadu Private University Engineering, Management, Others >12,000 Source: Industry, Anand Rathi Research Fig 37 – P&L model for a college in a Tier-II town Yrs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Total capacity Nos. 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1,800 2,100 2,400 Capacity utilization % 60 70 80 90 90 100 100 100 Students on roll Nos. 180 420 720 1,080 1,350 1,800 2,100 2,400 Average fees ` 40,000 44,000 48,400 53,240 58,564 64,420 70,862 77,949 Growth % 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Total revenue `m 7 18 35 57 79 116 149 187 Growth % 156.7 88.6 65.0 37.5 46.7 28.3 25.7 Teaching (1:20) Nos 9 21 36 54 68 90 105 120 Avg. salary of teaching staff ` 18,000 19,800 21,780 23,958 26,354 28,989 31,888 35,077 Growth % 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Teaching staff salary `m 2 5 10 17 23 34 44 55 Non-teaching Nos 5 12 21 24 30 40 47 53 Avg. salary of non-teaching staff ` 12,000 13,200 14,520 15,972 17,569 19,326 21,259 23,385 Growth % 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Non-teaching staff salary `m 1 2 4 5 7 10 13 16 Total employee cost `m 3 7 14 22 30 44 57 71 As a % of revenue % 40.1 40.4 40.6 37.9 38.1 37.9 38.0 37.9 Other operating cost `m 3 6 10 14 20 26 33 42 As a % of revenue % 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 25.0% 22.5% 22.5% 22.5% Total cost `m 6 14 25 36 50 70 90 113 EBITDA `m 1 5 10 21 29 46 59 74 Margins % 19.9 24.6 29.4 37.1 36.9 39.6 39.5 39.6 Depreciation `m 3.8 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Interest @ 12% `m 9.6 12.6 13.5 14.1 14.7 14.2 11.7 8.1 PBT `m (11.9) (12.3) (7.8) 2.5 9.4 26.7 42.1 61.1 Tax @ 33% `m - - - - - 2.2 13.9 20.1 PAT `m (11.9) (12.3) (7.8) 2.5 9.4 24.5 28.2 40.9 PAT margins % - - - - 11.9 21.2 19.0 21.9 CAPEX `m 120 30 20 10 10 10 - - Dep `m 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 Net block `m 120 146 162 168 173 178 173 168 163 WC Loan `m 50 Loan (debt: equity - 1:1) `m 60 100 110 115 120 125 111.3 83.2 51.7 ROE % (9.5) (9.8) (6.2) 2.0 7.6 19.6 22.6 32.7 ROCE % (0.9) (0.4) 1.2 4.5 8.1 13.0 18.9 24.6 Please note the basic assumptions 1. Land is purchased and construction is initiated in the first year and the same is done phase-wise on a need basis. 2. Installed capacity is of 240 students per course for 10 different courses, this is increased gradually. 3. In the 9th year, the college reaches 100% capacity. Post that an annuity model is followed, unless new seats / courses are added. 4. Non-teaching staff is in the ratio of 1:35 for the first four years; later that ratio tilts to 1:45 when capacity hits 90%. 5. Maintenance capex is assumed to get expensed during the year. 6. The above does not include fees charged to students for various other activities. Source: Industry, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 28 Tutorials: An urban phenomenon This is the most unregulated and unorganized segment of the Indian education sector. We estimate the yearly revenue size of the industry at US$4.5bn in 2012 and at US$8bn by 2015. The unregulated nature of the industry has attracted much PE/VC funding. Integrated classroom coaching, the dominant part of the industry, currently accounting for over 80% of the segment, is faced with numerous challenges. While ICT-based coaching is likely to prosper at the cost of integrated classroom coaching, the process is likely to reduce the overall pricing power of the segment. Easy to launch The coaching industry has evolved over the years based on the requirements of the students. The current size of the industry segment is about US$4.5bn, with a CAGR of 20%. The entire segment is catered to by private players. The coaching industry is mainly an urban phenomenon – coaching in urban areas accounts for nearly 75% of the overall coaching market. This caters to parents/students who are looking for extra help outside school/college in order to improve their marks. It is by far the most unorganised and unregulated segment in the entire education chain. Most coaching institutes start on a low-scale, with teaching students next door, primarily at the residence of the student/teacher. Business gains momentum when the same teacher is also a part of a school/college and is promoted chiefly by word of mouth. The unit-level operating matrix for coaching institutes is very attractive, as fees are generally received at the beginning of the classes. Investment is required to scale up to full-fledged classes/new branches. However, once the same reaches optimum level (generally in 2-3 years) it runs at an EBITDA of 40-45% and helps fund other branches. The RTE Act prohibits schoolteachers from offering private coaching. While similar provisions prevailed in certain states in the past, such practices continue. Whether the RTE norms effectively curb the practice of private coaching by schoolteachers remains to be seen. Scaling up is an issue Coaching generally has a personal touch, as it starts with small private/group tuitions. Classes grow in size because of one or two star teachers who generally were at the launch. Post that, finding appropriate teachers to scale up is difficult. Moreover, once the new teachers gain a name, it becomes even more difficult to retain them. There is always a fear of star teachers leaving to start their own set-up or being poached by competitors. This is the biggest roadblock to scaling up. In order to overcome employee-related issues, big players are using strategies such as dividing one subject among 4-5 teachers. This reduces the importance of star teachers. Further, the introduction of online classes/usage of VSAT/Internet widens the reach and at the same time reduces the dependence on a few select teachers. From classroom to online coaching There are four types of test preparation institutes in India. These comprise: 1) integrated classroom programs, 2) technology aided – virtual class, 3) portal-based learning, and 4) distance learning. With the growing IT usage in India, virtual class and portal-based teaching are attracting The coaching industry is mainly an urban phenomenon – coaching in urban areas accounts for nearly 75% of the overall coaching market. The dominant classroom model is facing challenges from ICT-based coaching
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 29 more students then ever before.  Integrated classroom: Personalized counselling is the key driver in this area of test preparation. It caters to students' requirements and career needs on an individual level. Key market players in this segment are FIITJEE, IMS, Career Point, and JK Shah.  Technology-aided – virtual class: Virtual classes replicate a real classroom with the help of VSAT/VPN / broad-band via tie-ups with technology partners. Here students interact with instructors online using audio and video-conferencing facilities. Through this delivery platform, instructors deliver lectures at multiple locations simultaneously. This helps minimize time and cost in terms of resource deployment. It also helps reach those locations where setting up a full-fledged center may not be viable due to (1) non-availability of resources (most importantly, competent teachers), or (2) lower number of enrollments than the minimum required for profitable functioning. Everonn is the largest player in this segment. Other players in this segment include Career Point and Educomp.  Portal-based services: Such portals bring together applicants, students, alumni and teachers on a social network. Very little initial investment is required in this model. The services provided through such forums include discussion forums, ranking of schools and colleges, application forms of institutes, entrance test preparation material, SMS alerts, e-books and news, views and developments. Such forums generate revenues in various forms, including banner advertisements on the portal, paid newsletters, paid direct mail advertorials and sale of admission/ examination forms for specific institutions. Of late, video-based teaching also takes place on such portals. Edserv, Educomp and Info Edge are some of the important players in this segment.  Distance learning: Coaching institutes are well known for the simplified content that they provide and the mock tests that they conduct. Many students opt to take only the content and the test, either because this is a cheaper option compared to the classroom- based tutorials or because they prefer self-learning. This mode also helps reach geographies where full-fledged classes are not present. The distance-learning arm of any class is the most profitable, as it does not involve investing in infrastructure or teachers; content once ready does not involve much cost. The major cost involved is of marketing and setting up partners. FITJEE, Career Point, Brilliant, Bhansal and Resonance are some of the key players in this segment. Since it is not regulated and can be run for profit, a large number of deals (PE/VC funding) take place in this segment. Challenges before the coaching industry Integrated classroom coaching is currently the largest component of the coaching industry, accounting for over 80% of the overall revenue for the segment. This model is, however, facing two serious challenges. First, this segment is facing problems of accessing adequate number of competent instructors. The well-known (star) instructors, on the other hand, create problems of high attrition. Second, ICT-enabled coaching (mainly virtual class and portal-based teaching) is more cost efficient and scaleable than the integrated classroom coaching model. Yet, ICT-enabled services are being commoditised (inter alia, due to low capital investment requirement), thus impinging on the pricing power of the coaching industry.
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 30 Strict implementation of the RTE norm debarring schoolteachers from offering private classes or coaching would, on the one hand, increase the market size for the coaching industry and on the other hand aggravate the shortage of skilled instructors. Once again, these factors would be detrimental for the integrated classroom coaching model and beneficial for the ICT-based coaching model. We expect the share of integrated classroom coaching in the overall revenue of the coaching industry to fall (from over 80% currently) to less than 70% in the next five years. Fig 38 – Details of major coaching chains with PE/VC funding Name No. of centres Investors Description Career Launcher 250 Gaja Capital (USD 8Mn in 2007) Mainly works through the franchisee model in IIT, MBA coaching IMS 185 Milestone Religare (USD 5Mn in 2009) 185 centres that are part-owned and part-JVs. Involved in CAT, GMAT, GRE coaching T.I.M.E. 165 – Involved in GRE, GMAT, TOEFL coaching Franchisee model Plans to enter into pre-schools Career Forum 60 Focus on test preparation market for graduate, post- graduate and foreign education Gate Forum 50 Educomp (2011) Provides classroom coaching, correspondence courses Vidhyamandir Classes 48 Focus on engineering and medical entrance tests Aakash Inst. 47 – Focus on engineering and medical entrance tests Professional Tutorials 45 – Operates a franchisee model for test prep in graduation and post-graduation entrance tests Tandem Group 40 – Involved in CAT, NIMCET, IIT-JEE, AIEEE prep Career Point 34 Franklin Temp (USD 10Mn in 2009) A publicly listed firm. One of the largest coaching institutes. Now diversifying into K-12 Pathfinder Educational Centre 23 – Prepares students for Madhyamik, H.S., WBJEE, ICSE, AIEEE, CBSE-PMT and IIT-JEE Vidyasagar Classes 22 – Coaches over 9,000 students annually Involved in graduation entrance test prep Brilliant Tutorials 10 – No franchises Involved in engineering, medical , IAS entrance tests Is shifting from correspondence to classrooms Bansal Classes 7 – Over 50,000 enrolments for Involved in engineering, and medical test prep Smart Learn Telcomp 3 EdServ Infosystems Involved in graduate learning programs. Mainly in the south JK Shah Classes 12 Mumbai-based coaching classes. Strong in CA coaching, recently entered CFA and college prep. MTeducare 92 Helix partners Dominant player in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat. Focus on school, college-level coaching Source: Companies, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 31 Vocational training To fulfil India’s growing need for skilled manpower across sectors and narrow the existing gap between the demand and supply of skills, the Government of India targets imparting nine or ten technical skills, including retail and hospitality, to 500 million citizens over the next 10 years. India has always faced serious challenges in producing sufficient skilled technicians. The strong economic growth over the last decade and the consequent increase in demand for such skills has further increased the demand for such skill providers. The key problem in the area of vocational training is that the aspirants for such training lack the finance to undertake such courses. The organised financial system also generally does not extend such funding due to the high transaction cost for such small loans and the lack of bankable collateral. Currently, prospective employers are coming forward to sponsor such courses, often through in-house training facilities, backed by job guarantees at the end of the training. As the scale of such training increases, this sector is likely to see rapid growth. NSDC to narrow demand-supply gap in manpower National Skill Development Corporation (NSDC) was set up as part of a national skill development mission to fulfil India’s growing need for skilled manpower across sectors and narrow the existing gap between the demand and supply of skills. The Finance Minister announced the formation of the NSDC in his Budget speech of 2008-09. The NSDC is a public-private partnership, 49% owned by the Finance Ministry and the remaining 51% held by industry bodies such as the CII, NASSCOM, FICCI and Assocham. The Government of India targets imparting skills to 500 million citizens over the next 10 years. NSDC was set up with the objective of achieving 30% of this target, or 150m trained people, by 2022. NSDC enters into a JV with leading players for 10-15 years. The private partners provide equity and NSDC provides loans at a concessional 6- 7.5% rate with a tax holiday for the initial period of 3-5 years. Training is in 10 technical skill-sets including retail and hospitality. The course fee for technical courses ranges from `3,000 to `24,000. Fig 39 – Skill development: formal and informal Skill Development Formal Informal Professional colleges Vocational education in secondary schools Technical specialized institution Apprenticeship training Family occupation Self directed On job training Source: Anand Rathi Research Prospective employers are coming forward to sponsor vocational courses, often through in-house training facilities, backed by job guarantees. As the scale of such training increases, vocational training is likely to take-off in a major way.
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 32 Fig 40 – Key areas of technical training Airlines Flight & cabin crew Ground services Administration Cargo management & handling Engineer English spoken Accent building Language improvement Financial services Insurance Accounts & Taxation Banking Office assistant Retail Purchasing Storekeeping Marketing Salesmanship Information Technology IT enabled services Programming Testing Computer graphics Others Textiles Jwellery designing Beauty & cosmetics Source: Anand Rathi Research Fig 41 – Key players in skill training and vocational education Company Sector Brief info ICA Infotech Vocational training 450+ centers with courses in accounting, finance and stock market-related courses, with 100% placement guarantee. Prolific Systems and Technologies Vocational training 22+ automation training centres all over Asia. Global Talent Track Vocational training Global Talent Track floated a business school called Europe Asia Business School (http://www.eabs.ac.in) TeamLease Services Vocational training People supply and HR training company IIJT Vocational education As of 2010, IIJT operates 120 educational centers across the country. Teamlease Education, backed by Gaja Capital invested INR 31.88 Cr for a 74% stake in the company in Mar 2010.Teamlease subsequently increased its stake to 95% as of Mar 2011. Aspire Human Capital Management Vocational products (content) Provides skill and language training products to B-schools, colleges, universities etc. Shree Eduserve Vocational (English language training) Founded in 2006, Shree Eduserve currently has over 65 centers across the country and has a special focus on the English language training segment. Orion Edutech Vocational (call centers) Certification courses in the BPO segment with 100% placement IFBI Vocational training Provides diploma courses for BFSI segment. Tie-up with ICICI, HSBC and other banks. Part of the NIIT group. Speak well Vocational (English language Training) Provides spoken English training. Has 50+ branches in Mumbai Aptech IT / Animation training Present in 40+ countries. Provides training in computer, animation, multimedia, hardware, aviation, hospitality, retail and English language. NIIT IT training Present in 45+ countries. Provides training in computer, BPO, banking, and on-the-job corporate training for enhancing skills. Source: Companies, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 33 Fig 42 – Skill training: drivers and opportunities Challanges     Lack of financial institutions support Individual perception Lack of quality trainers Lack of equipments & machinery for training Drivers     Demand for skilled workforce increasing with growth in service sector Inefficient public education system Lacking employability skills based education system Competitive business environment Technical training Source: Anand Rathi Research Fig 43 – Porter’s 5 forces Porter’s 5 forces Degree of threat Remarks Bargaining power of buyers Medium Number of training institutes is low and mainly located in urban regions. Buyers prefer players that offer placement guarantee or have a good brand name. Bargaining power of suppliers Medium Non-availability of adequate skill manpower in rural region to run vocational centers is addressed by offering students trained by the centre part-time / full-time jobs. Further technology is used to conduct classes in a virtual environment. Threat of substitutes Medium Vocational training in itself is a substitute for formal education. However, training is provided on-the-job to upgrade skills of the existing manpower. This again, is tied up with a service provider. Threat of new entrants Low to medium NSDC is tying up with several players to address the huge demand-supply gap. With the huge mis- match in demand-supply there is room for many more players. Industry competitors Medium Many players already exist in the segment. Quite a few players in the formal education space are also expanding their horizons and are keen on getting their share of the larger pie. Source: Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 34 Public policy: the good, bad & ugly Ongoing legislative efforts with regard to accreditation, academic depository and malpractices are expected to result in better quality of educational institutions. However, the enforcement of some of these norms remains questionable, as there is no change in the existing system of supervision at the ground-level or in enforcement. In addition, the RTE Act is likely to have a negative impact on private institutions involved in elementary education. While for- profit education is no panacea, not allowing the same would effectively bar various credible players, including eminent foreign institutions, from entry to the Indian market. The driver of private investment in education is likely to remain burgeoning household spend rather than supportive public policy. Challenges before the public policy makers The Indian Constitution places education on the “Concurrent List” whereby both the Centre and the various states have legislative and executive powers over the education system. The broad objectives of the public policy on education in India are to ensure universal access, equality and quality. However, several challenges exist: Issues of quality and incompatibility of the curriculum with industry-required skill sets. Lacuna within the Indian education system include the generally poor quality of education, large shortage of qualified teachers, low enrolment ratio at secondary education onwards compared to peers, inadequacy of post-elementary education facilities at the required scale, a gulf between academic curriculum and industry skill requirements, lack of innovation and quality research and lack of internationally acclaimed institutions (Planning Commission, 2011). Bridging the skill gaps to make the vast majority of the Indians cross the bar of “employability” is crucial if India has to reap the benefits of the much-publicised “demographic dividend” bestowed to the country. This at once requires expansion and quality improvement. Need for checks and regulations against malpractices. Private investment helps offset the funding crunch in the educational systems but could affect the accessibility of poorer income groups to education. In addition, the privatisation of technical and professional education has also brought up issues such as the serious shortage of infrastructure, technical expertise and teaching facilities. Charges of underhand practices in private institutions reinforce the need for effective regulation, transparent systems and the supervision of private education. Public policy ambivalence to continue Public policy remains against for-profit education While the authorities frown upon for-profit private education on paper, in practice the same continues with the knowledge and ‘patronage’ of public officials, either through ‘cooking’ the accounts (Dixon and Tooley, 2005), generating surplus outside the education trust/society, or operating in niches of Indian education that are largely outside the scope of public policy. Bridging the skill gaps to make the vast majority of the Indians cross the bar of “employability” is crucial if India has to reap the benefits of the much-publicised “demographic dividend” bestowed on the country
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 35 Extensive legislative action on the anvil In order to meet the public policy objectives and to address the existing inadequacies of the Indian education system, several legislative actions are currently underway. These include:  Putting in place adequate accreditation structure to ensure education quality,  Quick redress of disputes relating to the educational system,  Prevention of malpractices in the sector,  Establishment of a national level apex body for education replacing the current multiplicity of authorities with overarching jurisdictions and mandates, and  Setting norms to attract capable and authentic private players, including foreign education providers to the sector. As part of ongoing education sector reforms, an important legislation has been passed in the recent past and five major bills are at various stages of deliberation in the Indian Parliament. The Act and the bills, if passed by the Parliament, are likely to have major implications for private investment in the education sector. Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education Act (RTE) One of the landmark acts on education is the Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education Act (RTE), 2009, which came into effect on 1 Apr ’10. This Act provides the right to all children between the ages of six and 14 years to have free and compulsory elementary education (standards I to VIII), in a neighbourhood school. Under the Act, private schools providing elementary education are required to provide free and compulsory elementary education to at least 25% of students from the weaker section and disadvantaged groups in the neighbourhood. If the school also offers pre-school education, then the reservation would be applicable for such levels as well. Private pre-schools not providing elementary education (standard I to VIII) have an advantage, as they would not fall under the RTE. The schools would be reimbursed for either the tuition charge or the per-student expenditure in government schools, whichever is lower. We estimate this at `3,600 per year, per student, which is far lower than the tuition fee in urban centres, where 60% of private school students are based. This would be revenue and profit decretive for urban private schools, especially those in larger cities levying high tuition fees. In addition, if the 25% reserved quota is filled, the total reimbursement amount by the government can run up to `400bn (US$8bn) or 2% of the overall public spend on education. In view of these, questions remain on the practicality of the RTE ACT. Non-compliance of infrastructure, teacher and teacher qualification norms specified by the Act within the three- year timeframe, would lead to withdrawal of recognition and closure. If a school continues to operate, it would attract penalty up to `100,000 and `10,000 per day. Interestingly, public schools have no specific penal action for non-compliance by them. The RTE also prohibits charging of any capitation fee, contravention of which would attract penalty up to 10 times of the capitation fee charged. The Act also prohibits any child or parent screening for school admission, contravention of which would attract penalty up to `25,000 in the first instance and Rs.50,000 for every subsequent contravention. The Act prohibits teachers from undertaking private tuition or private teaching activities. The National Accreditation Regulatory Authority (NARA) for Higher Educational Institutions Bill, 2010 Currently, accreditation of institutions involved in higher education is voluntary. Only around 20% of the collages and 30% of the universities are accredited. NARA makes accreditation mandatory for all institutions involved in higher education (apart from agriculture, which is a state subject) and all courses offered by them also have to be accredited. The bill establishes NARA for higher education, which shall register and monitor accreditation agencies. These agencies, in turn, would accredit institutions. The accreditation bill allows only government-owned bodies to set up accreditation agencies.
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 36 The National Academic Depository Bill, 2011 The bill aims at establishing a national electronic database of academic awards that would allow verification and authentication of all academic records awarded by all recognised academic institutions operating in India. The bill makes it mandatory for all academic institutions operating in India, and issuing degree, diploma, certificate or any other academic award, to lodge all such details with National Academic Depository. Any person is entitled to request the depository to verify any academic award within a specified time. Accreditation of academic institutions and courses, coupled with the authentication mechanism of academic records, would benefit capable and serious private institutions and would put pressure on fly-by-night operators in India and also on fictitious education providers from across-the-border. This is likely to provide greater credibility to the private education system in India. Educational Tribunals Bill, 2010 The Educational Tribunals Bill, 2010 has been introduced with the aim to adjudicate disputes relating to higher education. This would cover grievances by all stakeholders including institutions, teachers, other employees, students and regulators. There would be a tribunal at the national level and each state would also have state-level tribunals, with specific jurisdiction. The bill bars the jurisdiction of civil courts on any matters that the state or national educational tribunal is empowered to determine. Prohibition of Unfair Practices in Technical Educational Institutions, Medical Educational Institutions and University Bill, 2010 The Prohibition of Unfair Practices in Technical Educational Institutions, Medical Educational Institutions and University Bill, 2010 seeks to prohibit unfair practices such as demanding capitation fee, admitting students on other than on merit criteria, not issuing receipt for any fee charged, disseminating misleading information and adopting coercive practices to realise payments from students. The bill makes it mandatory for every institution publish a prospectus, at least 60 days prior to admission, containing specified information on academic and financial aspects of the courses. Implementation of the bill would provide greater transparency to private education and thereby benefit bona fide institutions and deter mala fide institutions from following underhand practices. The real issue, however, is that without any change in monitoring and enforcement, the bill would not play any major role in India’s education landscape. For example, demanding and giving capitation fee is banned in India. In reality, however, such practices are widespread. In the current form, the bill does not propose any change in monitoring and enforcement. Foreign Educational Institutions (Regulation of Entry and Operations) Bill, 2010 An estimated 160,000 Indian students go abroad every year and spend US$4bn on education. Currently, foreign institutions are allowed to access the Indian market through various routes, but each involves a local partner. According to reports, currently 6 foreign universities have approved collaborations, 67 institutes run unapproved technical programmes in foreign collaborations and overall 640 foreign collaborations are, in effect, in India. Few foreign institutions involved in such collaborations are globally well-known (Sanyal, 2010). The Foreign Educational Institutions (Regulation of Entry and Operations) Bill, 2010 allows foreign institutions to open a campus in India under permission from the Central government without any partner, but only if they fulfil certain conditions. These conditions include a track record of 20 years in the country of origin, a corpus fund of `500mn (US$10mn), at least 25% ploughing back of surplus generated in this country into the corpus fund and deployment of the rest of the surplus on Indian ventures and no repatriation of surplus from India. The courses offered by the foreign institutions have to conform to various standards laid down by the relevant Indian authorities and be comparable to that offered at the original foreign campus.
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 37 Little alternative to private funding There is wide recognition among public authorities about the need to infuse private funding and attract private educational institutes to improve the access and quality of Indian education. This would require garnering all sources for funding of education, and private sector funding offers a major opportunity in this regard. Realising the benefits of quality education for the individual and family, households are already moving away from public to private education. Irrespective of the public policy stance, this would drive private education in India. Globally, most prominent educational institutions are ‘public’ institutions. Yet, private educational institutions worldwide are making major headway in terms of enrolment and expansion. At the same time, public institutions are working out alternative funding opportunities and setting up for-profit branches/courses as public funding dries up. The strong interest of various globally reputed foreign institutions in entering the lucrative Chinese and Indian education markets at least partially reflects their attempt to garner additional resources, both pecuniary and non-pecuniary. Lofty goals, lax enforcement Guarding stakeholders, especially students, from underhanded and unscrupulous practices by private educational institutions is necessary. Moreover, a regulatory and supervisory system to ensure that private educational institutions follow certain minimum standards in terms of course structure, faculty and academic facilities is relevant under the circumstances. Enactment of the RTE is a watershed in the enrolment of elementary education. The Act, however, has put unequal burdens, as well as threats of penal actions including closure, on private schools versus public schools. This would either reduce the incentive of private investment in elementary education or private schools would avoid punitive action through underhand measures, as many are currently doing (Dixon and Tooley, 2005). Similarly, current legislative measures including those on accreditation, record authentication, dispute resolution and thwarting of malpractices are well intended. In many cases, however, these measures would not serve the purpose without commensurate change in the supervision and enforcement mechanisms. Unfortunately, such measures are not forthcoming. Public policy dampening quality private investment “Not-for-profit” tag of private education here to stay In India, a private school, a college or a deemed university can be set up only by a trust, society or a company set up under Section 25 of the Companies Act, 1956 (even by an individual, in certain states).10 These entities, in turn, have to be non-profit in character. This is a key hindrance for private players that possess the required technical and managerial skills and financial resources to operate in the Indian education sector in a transparent, orderly and scalable model. While there is talk in policy circles of the need to review this,11 none of the proposed legislative actions actually addresses this issue. The bill on the entry of foreign education providers in India in fact reaffirms the “not-for- profit” status of private education. The non-profit clause is a key hindrance for private players that possess the required technical and managerial skills and financial resources to operate in the Indian education sector in a transparent, orderly and scalable model
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 38 Serious players unlikely to work around the not-for-profit model It is possible for private players to work around the not-for-profit stipulation. In fact, various private players are currently following such a model. Yet, such restrictions impede the entry of credible players such as internationally renowned institutions in the Indian education sector, despite their stated interest on opening branches in India. In order to avoid large government interference in formal education, a major part of the current private investment in the education sector is centred on unregulated and ancillary areas such as pre-school, coaching classes, etc. This situation is unlikely to change unless the not-for-profit tag for education providers is removed. Discretionary practices give private education a bad name We believe the ongoing intensive legislative efforts to reform the education system can have certain salutary effects on the sector in general and private investment in particular. Improvement of quality of education, weeding out of unreliable education firms, transparency on educational institutes and courses and strict penal action against unscrupulous educational institutes and personnel are some of the objectives of the education reforms currently underway. These measures should help the genuine private educational institutions to consolidate their position. Yet, the main critique of the current system is that it remains suspended between over-regulation by the state and a discretionary privatisation. The process retards the efforts of either sufficient mobilisation of private resources or optimum use of mobilised resources (Kapur and Mehta, 2004). Despite the clear recognition of the limits of publicly funded education in terms of both access and quality, public policy on private education remains largely ambivalent. In many other Asian countries like South Korea, Malaysia and even China, public authorities have inserted enabling conditions to allow private investment in education, and are also offering incentives to promote such investment. In contrast, growth of private investment in Indian education has taken place without any state support. Consequently, the unexpected growth in the private sector has led the government to impose regulations. The ambiguities of such regulation have led to judicial interventions (Agarwal, 2009). While the current system effectively bars the entry of credible international providers of education, discretionary policies allow private players with the right connections to put up shoddy education shops and fleece unsuspecting students using illegal and underhand measures. The process gives private education a bad name and provides the opponents of private investment in education with reasons to oppose private initiatives (Kapur and Mehta, 2007). Regulatory capture retarding education reform In a cynical note the Economist, 2008, asserts, “For corrupt state-level rulers, a tightly regulated university system has many benefits. Politicians, or their lackeys, collect bribes for appointing faculty, admitting students and awarding good grades. They insert their supporters to run the racket. Having destroyed a public university, they then grant themselves permission to open a private one from which, illegally, they milk profits. India’s politicians would clearly be mad to reform this system.” However, we disagree with such cynical views, and believe public demand for access to quality education at required scale and the willingness to pay
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 39 reasonable amounts for such education would lead to educational reforms that grant greater room for quality private education providers. Yet, the process is likely to take longer than what many enthusiastic private investors might expect. Passive ‘privatisation’ to continue for now All rungs of the Indian government – executive, legislative and judiciary – have so far shown various degrees of disdain with regard to allowing de jure for-profit education business even if de facto for-profit education continues to expand at all levels, especially in tertiary education (see Fig 4). The approach of public policy and judiciary on private education has been succinctly summarised by a celebrated judgement in the case of Unni Krishnan vs the State of A. P. (1993). The judgment says, “Imparting of education has never been treated as a trade or business in this country since time immemorial. It has been treated as a religious duty … charitable activity … never as a trade or business. . . (This) does not imply that private schools cannot exist but states that they should not ‘commercialise education’ and impart education with the motivation to profit from it”. Despite statements by public authorities on reconsidering the not-for- profit status of education in India, no executive, legislative or judicial action is underway towards this end. Public policy to help incumbents We do not anticipate public policy on for-profit education to change dramatically anytime soon. Yet, we expect private education and private investment in education to accelerate further. The capacity constraint of public education system for tertiary, especially technical/ professional education, inadequacy of the formal education system to impart quality education and the affordability and willingness of households to spend for quality education would accelerate the momentum of private investment in the education sector. Although the current legislative efforts may fall short of a full-scale education reform, these measures are likely to influence various niches of the educational system. In the next three to five years, we expect strong private demand rather than public policy reform to be the main driver of private investment in education. We believe that some of the legislative initiatives underway, including the bills on accreditation and on measures against malpractices, would benefit the stronger incumbents. At the same time, status quo on the non-profit clause would mean some of the major potential entrants to the Indian education market would further defer their entry decisions. Meanwhile, the willingness of the Indian households to spend money on quality education provided by reputed organisations would pose serious challenges for most unorganised/stand-alone players and new entrants. As a result, existing large domestic private players are likely to consolidate their positions. Current public policy initiatives have not put in place any incentive mechanism to attract private investment into formal education. We have already indicated that the provision of the RTE can lead to defocusing of private institutions from elementary education. Compulsory accreditation norms and effective implementation of the provisions of Prohibition of Unfair Practices Bill can adversely affect private institutions with inadequate capacity. At the same time, we do not think that the Foreign Educational Institutions Bill, in its current form, would induce reputed foreign institutions to set up Indian ventures. Consequently, we expect private investment in education to remain focused on areas where it is already strong – pre-school, technical education and private tuition.
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 40
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 41 Listed companies
    • Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Disclosures and analyst certifications are located in Appendix 1 Anand Rathi Research India Equities Atul Thakkar +9122 66266724 atulthakkar@rathi.com Key financials (YE Mar) FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Sales (`m) 617 786 749 1,008 1,301 Net profit (`m) 178 232 236 264 303 EPS (`) 12.3 12.8 13.0 14.5 16.7 Growth (%) (0.8) 3.7 1.7 11.8 15.1 PE (x) 17.5 16.9 16.6 14.9 12.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.5 8.0 11.3 9.5 8.0 P/BV (x) 2.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 RoE (%) 9.2 8.4 7.5 7.5 7.9 RoCE (%) 13.8 12.7 11.2 11.2 11.7 Dividend yield (%) - - - - - Net gearing (%) (45.7) (58.3) (28.9) (9.1) 5.2 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Education Initiating Coverage India I Equities 29 December 2011 Career Point New business segments, expansion through VSAT & internet Having built a strong brand in north India with its cash-cow tutorials, Career Point is expanding through VSAT/internet technology to untapped areas. In order to widen its business footprint, it has made a foray into K-12 and higher education. We initiate coverage with a Buy rating and a DCF-based price target of `284.  Tutorial business – a cash cow. Career Point is a strong brand in north India. Its cash-cow tutorials have over 32,776 students, with fees averaging `24,000 per annum, per student. The company is now tying up with schools to prepare students for competitive exams at school premises. It is also backward integrating by setting up a residential campus in Kota for 3,000 students, with annual fees of `78,000 each. Operations are expected to start from 1QFY13.  Technology to expand its footprint. Career Point is utilizing VSAT/ internet technology to conduct “live” classes (Techedge Classes) in schools and centers where it would have been uneconomical to set up full-fledged classes.  Diversifying into formal education. In order to capture a larger portion of the private education market, the company is diversifying into K-12 and higher education. It plans to set up two K-12 schools, two technical campuses and two universities during FY12-13, with an investment of ~`2.5bn. With its strong student base in the coaching segment, the company is confident of scaling up its new business segments.  Valuation. We use a DCF-based valuation to arrive at our target price of `284. At this price, the stock would trade at PE of 19x FY13e and 17x FY14e earnings. Risks: attrition of key staff, increasing competition and regulatory risks and changes in entrance examination policy. Rating: BUY Target Price: `284 Share Price: `216 Relative price performance CRPT Sensex 200 250 300 350 400 450 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Source: Bloomberg Key data CRPT IN / CARP.BO 52-week high / low `424 / `216 Sensex / Nifty 15971 / 4779 3-m average volume US$0.2m Market cap `3.9bn / US$75.7m Shares outstanding 18.13m Shareholding pattern (%) Sep ’11 Jun ’11 Mar ’11 Promoters 59.92 59.92 59.92 - of which, pledged - - - Free float 40.08 40.08 40.08 - Foreign institutions 0.17 0.21 0.21 - Domestic institutions 15.41 16.04 16.27 - Public 24.5 23.83 23.60
    • 29 December 2011 Career Point – New business segments, expansion through VSAT & internet Anand Rathi Research 43 Quick Glance – Financials and Valuations Fig 1 – Income statement (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Net revenues 617 786 749 1,008 1,301 Revenue growth (%) 36.6 27.5 (4.7) 34.6 29.0 - Op. expenses 378 489 477 625 791 EBIDTA 239 297 272 384 509 EBITDA margin (%) 38.7 37.8 36.4 38.1 39.2 - Interest expenses 0 1 0 12 36 - Depreciation 7 13 18 34 46 + Other income 42 67 97 54 24 - Tax 95 119 116 130 149 Effective tax rate (%) 34.7 33.9 33.0 33.0 33.0 Reported PAT 179 232 235 263 303 +/- Extraordinary items 1 1 - - - +/- Minority interest 0 (1) (1) (1) (1) Adjusted PAT 178 232 236 264 303 Adj. FDEPS (`/share) 12.3 12.8 13.0 14.5 16.7 Adj. FDEPS growth (%) (0.8) 3.7 1.7 11.8 15.1 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 3 – Cash-flow statement (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e PAT 179 232 236 264 303 + Non-cash items 6 14 18 34 46 Cash profit 185 246 254 297 349 - Incr./(decr.) in WC 112 62 (30) 44 17 Operating cash-flow 73 185 284 253 332 - Capex 141 340 1,000 800 800 Free cash-flow (68) (155) (716) (547) (468) - Dividend - - - - - + Equity raised 575 1,097 (1) (1) (1) + Debt raised (51) (1) (0) 200 200 - Investments 360 944 (804) (300) (222) - Misc. items 1 (0) - - - Net cash-flow 95 (1) 87 (47) (47) + Op. cash & bank bal. 133 227 226 313 266 Cl. cash & bank bal. 227 226 313 266 219 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 5 – Valuation chart (EV/EBITDA) 12x 14x 16x 20x 18x 3 4 5 6 7 8 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Career Point Source: Bloomberg, Anand Rathi Research Fig 2 – Balance sheet (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Share capital 144 181 181 181 181 Reserves & surplus 1,181 2,474 2,710 2,973 3,277 Net worth 1,325 2,655 2,891 3,154 3,458 Minority interest 0 0 (0) (1) (2) Total debt 1 1 1 201 401 Def. tax liab. (net) 2 3 3 3 3 Capital employed 1,328 2,659 2,894 3,357 3,860 Net fixed assets 481 808 1,789 2,556 3,310 Investments 382 1,326 522 222 - - of which, liquid 379 1,322 522 222 - Net working capital 238 299 269 313 330 Cash and bank balance 227 226 313 266 219 Capital deployed 1,328 2,659 2,894 3,357 3,860 Net debt (605) (1,547) (834) (287) 181 WC days 141 139 131 113 93 Book value (`/sh) 92 146 159 174 191 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 4 – Ratio analysis @ `216 Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e CEPS (`/share) 12.8 13.5 14.0 16.4 19.2 Cash/(debt) (`/share) 42.0 85.3 46.0 15.8 (10.0) P/E (x) 17.5 16.9 16.6 14.9 12.9 P/B (x) 2.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 P/C(x) 16.9 16.0 15.4 13.2 11.2 EV/sales (x) 4.1 3.0 4.1 3.6 3.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.5 8.0 11.3 9.5 8.0 EBIT/sales(%) 44.4 44.7 46.9 40.1 37.5 Sales/average CE(x) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 RoCE (%) 13.8 12.7 11.2 11.2 11.7 Avg. CE/avg.eq.(x) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 PBT/EBIT (x) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 PAT/PBT (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 RoE (%) 9.2 8.4 7.5 7.5 7.9 Dividend yield(%) - - - - - Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 6 – Revenue break-up 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Coaching Hostel Formal Education (%) Source: Company
    • 29 December 2011 Career Point – New business segments, expansion through VSAT & internet Anand Rathi Research 44 Investment argument and valuation Having built a strong brand in north India with its cash-cow tutorials, Career Point is now expanding through VSAT/internet technology to untapped areas. To widen its business footprint, it has also made a foray into K-12 and higher education. We initiate coverage with a Buy rating and a DCF-based price target of `284. Tutorial business, the cash cow Career Point provides tutorial services to high-school students and after for various competitive entrance examinations, including the All-India Engineering Entrance Examination (AIEEE), the Indian Institute of Technology – Joint Entrance Examination (IIT-JEE), the All-India Pre- Medical (AIPMT) and Pre-Dental Tests (PDT). The tutorial services are provided in classroom programs conducted through a network of company-operated centers (17) and franchises (16). In FY11, it had 32,776 students, with average fees of `24,000 per annum, per student. Fig 7 – Center-wise break-up of students Centers FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Kota 7,931 9,836 10,080 13,574 16,603 Growth (%) - 24.0 2.5 34.7 22.3 Branches 1,511 3,508 5,345 9,249 9,244 Growth (%) - 132.2 52.4 73.0 (0.1) Franchisees 9,066 9,091 6,742 4,285 3,225 Growth (%) - 0.3 (25.8) (36.4) (24.7) Distance learning 6,174 5,581 5,543 3,835 3,694 Growth (%) - (9.6) (0.7) (30.8) (3.7) Total 24,682 28,016 27,710 30,943 32,766 Growth (%) - 13.5 (1.1) 11.7 5.9 Source: Company Technology to expand footprint The company is using innovative technology to enhance learning for students and to expand its base to areas it does not yet cover. Diversification into formal education Career Point is also diversifying in order to capture a larger share of the private education market, with a foray into K-12 and universities. This strategy complements its present line of business. Caters 32,776 students under various courses with average realization of `24,000 per annum
    • 29 December 2011 Career Point – New business segments, expansion through VSAT & internet Anand Rathi Research 45 Fig 8 – Segment-wise flow-chart Career Point Existing New initiatives launched Test prep AIEEE IIT-JEE AIPMT PDT SLEEE 30,000+ students across India Allied services Formal education Residential Hostel (Kota) K-12 Kota Jodhpur CBSE board Technical campus Mohali Rajsamand MBA, MCA & Engineering University Kota Campus Hamirpur Distance education Source: Company Valuation Using DCF-based valuation methodology, we have arrived at a price target of `284. At this target price, the stock would trade at PE of 19x FY13e and 17x FY14e earnings. We expect strong earnings growth and better return ratios to result in premium valuations. (See Fig 9). Risks  Scrapping of entrance examinations by the government. The government may scrap/reduce the weighting for the entrance examination to engineering colleges, from 100% to 30%, and lay more emphasis on Std.12 results. This would significantly affect Career Point, as ~90% of its revenue arises from tutorials in the test- preparation segment. This regulation should take awhile to be passed (discussions on this have been ongoing for the last two years), as it may face much opposition from IITs and other engineering colleges. Even if the same is passed, Career Point will start offering coaching for XII board exams along with the entrance exam.  Geographical concentration. The company derives 58% of revenue from Kota, Rajasthan. Hence, any disruption in operations, or competition, could impact overall operations significantly.  Attrition. Attrition in the senior management/content/teaching team may impact the business.  Regulatory risk for formal education. Any changes in regulatory norms on the formal education front may significantly impact the investment made in formal education by the company.
    • 29 December 2011 Career Point – New business segments, expansion through VSAT & internet Anand Rathi Research 46 Fig 9 – DCF-based valuation Year-end: Mar FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e FY15e FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e FY20e FY21e FY22e FCFF Revenues (`m) 786 749 1,008 1,301 1,662 2,096 2,452 2,813 3,231 3,717 4,213 4,785 Growth (%) 27.5 -4.7 34.6 29.0 27.8 26.2 17.0 14.7 14.8 15.0 13.4 13.6 EBITDA (`m) 297 272 384 509 655 842 965 1,086 1,267 1,467 1,645 1,851 Margins (%) 37.8 36.4 38.1 39.2 39.4 40.2 39.4 38.6 39.2 39.5 39.0 38.7 Depreciation/amortisation (`m) 13 18 34 46 115 128 129 131 132 134 135 138 Interest expenses (`m) 1 0 12 36 69 81 60 24 - - - - Other income (`m) 67 97 54 24 8 9 19 28 42 67 95 125 PBT (`m) 351 351 393 452 479 642 795 959 1,176 1,400 1,605 1,837 Tax (`m) 119 116 130 149 158 212 262 317 388 462 530 606 PAT (before MI) (`m) 232 235 263 303 321 430 533 643 788 938 1,075 1,231 Add: depreciation (`m) 13 18 34 46 115 128 129 131 132 134 135 138 Add: interest*(1-tax rate) (`m) 0 0 8 24 46 54 40 16 - - - - Cash profit (`m) 245 253 305 373 482 612 702 790 921 1,072 1,210 1,369 Increase/decrease in working capital (`m) 62 -30 44 17 -13 -79 18 16 15 28 34 42 Operating cash flow (`m) 184 283 261 355 496 691 685 774 905 1,044 1,176 1,327 Capex (`m) 340 1,000 800 800 800 50 50 50 50 50 50 150 FCFF (`m) -156 -717 -539 -445 -304 641 635 724 855 994 1,126 1,177 Less: interest*(1-tax rate) (`m) 0 0 8 24 46 54 40 16 - - - - FCFE (`m) -156 -717 -547 -469 -350 587 595 708 855 994 1,126 1,177 Year of discounting (no.) - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Discounted FCFF (`m) - -717 -471 -339 -203 374 323 322 333 338 334 303 Discounted FCFE (`m) - -717 -480 -361 -236 348 309 323 342 348 346 317 Calculation WACC CMP (`) 216 Equity (market cap) (`m) 3,917 Cost of equity (%) Debt (FY12e) (`m) 1 284 12.6 13.6 14.6 15.6 16.6 Risk-free rate - Rf (%) 9.0 3 327 287 254 226 203 Rm - market return (%) 14.0 4 351 305 267 237 212 Beta (B) 1.1 5 380 326 284 250 222 Cost of equity (ke) (%) 14.6 6 418 353 304 265 233 Cost of debt (kd) (%) 12.0 Terminalgrowth(%) 7 468 388 329 284 248 Wd (%) 0.0 We (%) 99.99 WACC (%) 14.5 Growth rate (g) (%) 5 FCFF in 2022e (`m) 1,126 Terminal value of firm (`m) 11,709 Present value of terminal value(`m) 3,011 NPV of FCFF (`m) 1,303 Net debt (`m) -834 Intrinsic value (`m) 5,148 Outstanding shares (no. m) 18 Value per share (`) 284 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Career Point – New business segments, expansion through VSAT & internet Anand Rathi Research 47 Tutorial business, a cash cow Career Point’s cash-cow tutorial business has over 32,776 students, with fees averaging `24,000per annum, per student. It is a strong brand in north India and is tying up with schools to prepare students for competitive exams at school premises. Further, the company is backward integrating by setting up a residential campus in Kota, Rajasthan, for 3,000 students, at annual fees of `78,000 each. Operations are expected to start from 1QFY13. Strong brand, northern India dominance Career Point has established training centers and brand recognition in its markets. It (together with its franchisees) operates in 13 states, providing access to major markets in northern and eastern India. Its Kota center attracts students from across the country as well as from Singapore and West Asia (the Middle East), in turn, reinforcing its brand equity. It operates this network through its own branches and franchisees, generally in tier-II towns. It also offers distance learning where it is not financially viable to open centers. Fig 10 – Network of branches Number of centers (30 Mar ’11) Added in 1QFY12 Closed in 1QFY12 Number of centers 1QFY 12 Company-owned 17 2 7 12 Franchisees 16 1 6 11 CPLive franchisees (VSAT based) - 4 - 4 Total 33 7 13 27 Source: Company Average realizations at 27% CAGR (FY07-FY11) The company has a strong foothold in AIEEE (All-India Engineering Entrance Exam) coaching, with 7.5% CAGR in volumes (FY07-FY11). However, in the last five years (FY07-FY11) it has also seen a steady increase in average realizations, at 27.1% CAGR, despite competition in the tutoring business and lower enrollment in AIPMT (All-India Pre- Medical Test) and franchisee centers. This is mainly due to its strategy of focusing on its strengths in the engineering tutorial segment and closing down loss-suffering franchises that are low on performance and that erode brand value. Further, it opens centers mainly in tier-II cities where it can attract at least 600 students. The rationale behind the focus on tier-II cities is that:  Less competition exists from organized players similar to Career Point  Lower rental costs lead to early breakeven for each unit  The target audience is easier to attract, as they have greater aspirations to learn and grow. Students from nearby villages/towns can also be tapped;  Manpower costs are lower.
    • 29 December 2011 Career Point – New business segments, expansion through VSAT & internet Anand Rathi Research 48 Fig 11 – Average realizations on a steady rise FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Total students (no.) 24,682 28,016 27,710 30,943 32,766 Growth (%) 13.5 (1.1) 11.7 5.9 Average realization (`) 9,147 11,427 14,353 19,092 23,845 Growth (%) 24.9 25.6 33.0 24.9 Source: Company We expect strong traction in the AIPMT segment to aid growth. Further, the company is looking at other courses and tutorials for schools kids to leverage its leadership in AIEEE and diversify from the risks associated with the engineering test preparations. Tie-ups with schools Career Point plans to provide synchro-school programs under the TechEdge Class initiative through VSAT/VPN technology and learning management software. This will help experienced faculty members to conduct lectures at schools in remote locations. The company has already signed agreements with three schools under this model and plans to expand further. De-risking supply-side challenges The tutorial services largely depend on key teachers. To reduce the risks of dependence on a few key teachers, Career Point has divided each subject into 4-5 segments, taught by different teachers. This reduces dependence on a single teacher. At present, the company has a teaching faculty of over 200. We believe this strategy mitigates, to a larger extent, the risk of losing students due to the exit of a key faculty member. Integrated campus facility – backward integration Kota hosts 30,000-40,000 students from outside the city every year, who come to prepare for the IIT-JEE, the AIEEE and other entrance exams. A parallel industry has emerged in the region, catering to basic needs (food and lodging) of the students. Career Point is keen on having its own share of this pie and hence is developing an integrated campus for 3,000 students. It also hopes to see enhanced enrolments in its test-preparation program as a result of this new integrated facility. In addition, Career Point also intends to provide a host of services (library, guest-house for visiting parents, primary health center, auditorium, canteen, cafeteria, places for indoor and outdoor recreation, staff quarters, provision for a departmental store and banks). This is likely to be a strong value-add, as the combination of all these services on one campus is not easily available for students in standalone units. We believe that, due to the combination of facilities, the rising demand and at an annual fee of `78,000 per student (on par with the market rate), this initiative is likely to be successful. This center is also likely to help tap an increasing number of students, both for the formal and informal segments of the education stream. The facility is expected to be up and running by May ’12. The company expects to fill ~40% of capacity in the first year of operations. Integrated campus in Kota with capacity of 3,000 students and fees of `78,000 per annum
    • 29 December 2011 Career Point – New business segments, expansion through VSAT & internet Anand Rathi Research 49 Expansion via innovative technology Career Point is using innovative technology – such as virtual classrooms and technology-based learning solutions – to enhance the learning experience of students and to expand its base to areas in which it does not currently operate. This helps minimize time and cost in terms of resource deployment. The company has entered into an agreement with Hughes Communications, India, to provide satellite-based interactive services through the latter’s network across India. It also plans to increase the number of its Career Point Knowledge Labs across the country. Innovative teaching tools used to expand reach TechEdge Class: CP - Live TechEdge Class is a concept based on a virtual-classroom environment, replicating a real classroom through VSAT/VPN technology. In a TechEdge Class, students interact with instructors online through audio- and video-conferencing. On this platform, instructors deliver lectures at multiple locations simultaneously. This helps minimize time and cost in terms of resource deployment. Further, the cost involved in setting up TechEdge Classes is low. This, coupled with a minimum human interface, enables it to expand its offerings to remote locations where setting up a full-fledged training center is uneconomical. In order to reach students through this technology, the company has entered into an agreement with Hughes Communications, India, to provide satellite-based interactive services through the latter’s network across India. Career Point Knowledge Lab The company has launched technology-based personalized learning solutions at its Career Point Knowledge Labs. It provides pre-recorded varied educational content developed by faculty members in video and digital formats. Apart from content created exclusively for Career Point Knowledge Labs, content is developed by faculty members in TechEdge Class. The company intends to increase the number of Career Point Knowledge Labs across the nation, as this would address the personalized learning needs of students and revolutionize the process of preparing for competitive exams.
    • 29 December 2011 Career Point – New business segments, expansion through VSAT & internet Anand Rathi Research 50 Diversification into formal education To capture a larger portion of the private education market, Career Point is diversifying into K-12 and higher education. With its present student base of over 30,000 in the coaching segment, this constitutes a natural and organic business expansion. Global Public School: Kota and Jodhpur Career Point has one K-12 school, Global Public School, Kota, with ~1,500 students. A second school, based in Jodhpur, is scheduled to be launched in FY13. The land at the Kota school is in the books of a trust (the front end in the case of formal education is required to be a trust). Hence, Career Point gets only management fees. In the case of the Jodhpur school, the company is entitled to both management fees and lease rent, as the land and building are on its books and have been leased out to the trust for 30 years. Capex for the Jodhpur school (capacity: 2,000 students) is expected to be ~`100m. The company is to obtain revenue in terms of lease rent at 15% of capex, and management fees at ~15% of the revenue generated by the trust. Fig 12 – Number of students and revenue stream K-12 schools FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Kota (nos.) 1,500 1,650 1,650 1,650 Growth (%) - 10.0 - - Jodhpur (nos.) 200 300 450 Growth (%) 50.0 50.0 Total students 1,500 1,850 1,950 2,100 Average realization 22,000 24,200 26,620 29,282 Growth (%) 10 10.0 10.0 10.0 Revenue for trust (`m) 33 45 52 61 Management fees to company (`m) 5 7 8 9 CAPEX (`m) 100 Lease rent to company (`m) 15 15 Total revenue to company (`m) 5 7 23 24 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Technical campuses at Mohali and Rajsamand The company launched a technical campus at Mohali in Sep ’11 and plans to open another at Rajsamand in June 2012. While the campus at Mohali offers MBA programs and engineering courses, the one at Rajsamand is to also offer an MCA programme. The combined capacity of the two campuses will be ~3,300 students. The assets of these campuses are to be included in the books of Career Point’s 100% subsidiary, Career Point Infra, which would receive lease rent at 12% of the capex of ~`200m to be incurred by FY13. Career Point will also receive management fees at 15% of the revenue generated by the trust. Company will get management fees @ 15% of gross revenue to school and 15% as lease rent on infrastructure provided
    • 29 December 2011 Career Point – New business segments, expansion through VSAT & internet Anand Rathi Research 51 Fig 13 – Technical colleges: revenue and capex Technical college FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Mohali Maximum capacity 300 600 900 Capacity utilized 18 525 675 Capacity utilized (%) 6.0 87.5 75.0 Growth (%) 2,816.7 28.6 Average realization (`) 80,000 80,000 80,000 Growth (%) - - Rajsamand Maximum capacity 300 600 Capacity utilized 200 350 Capacity utilized (%) 66.7 58.3 Growth (%) 75.0 Average realization (`) 55,000 55,000 55,000 Growth (%) Total Total students 18 725 1,025 Growth (%) 3,927.8 41.4 Average realization (both campuses) (`) 80,000 73,103 71,463 Growth (%) (8.6) (2.2) Revenue for trust (` m) 1 53 73 Management fees to company (` m) (A) 0 8 11 Total capex 80 120 Lease rent to company (` m) (B) 24 24 Total revenue to company (A+B) - 0 32 35 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research State private university – Kota and Hamirpur Career Point has applied for state private university status in Rajasthan (Kota) and Himachal Pradesh (Hamirpur); sanctions for both are expected by end-FY12 and student intake is expected to commence from Jun ’12. Unlike the technical campuses and K-12 schools, there is no restriction on the number of seats. According to state government requirements, land for the university has to be in the books of the trust, while buildings and other assets can be reflected in the company’s balance sheet. In this case, they will stand in the books of Career Point’s 100% subsidiary, Career Point Infra, which would receive lease rent at 15% of the capex of ~`2.2bn to be incurred over four years, starting FY12. Career Point would also receive management fees of 15% of the revenue generated by the trust. Fig 14 – University revenue, capex and students University FY12e FY13e FY14e Kota 1,500 2,625 Hamirpur 750 1,500 Students - 2,250 4,125 Average realization (`) 50,000 55,000 Revenue for trust (`m) 113 227 Management fees to company (`m) (A) 17 34 CAPEX (`m) 400 600 600 Lease rent to company (`m) (B) 60 150 Revenue to company (`m) (A+B) 77 184 Source: Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Career Point – New business segments, expansion through VSAT & internet Anand Rathi Research 52 Financials In the past three years (FY08-FY11) Career Point has registered 27% revenue CAGR, largely from its tutorial services. As it shifts gears into formal education, we expect 32% revenue CAGR over FY12-14, with an expanded margin of 39.4% in FY14e. Revenue CAGR of 32% over FY12e-14e In the past three years (FY08-FY11), Career Point has registered 27% revenue CAGR, largely stemming from its tutorials segment. As it shifts gears and moves aggressively into formal education, we expect it to record 32% revenue CAGR over FY12-14. Fig 15 – Revenue and growth 0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e -10 0 10 20 30 40 Revneue Growth (RHS) (`m) (%) Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 16 – Revenue break-up (%) FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Coaching 100.0 99.4 99.1 77.3 69.2 Hostels - - - 9.7 12.1 Total non-formal 100.0 99.4 99.1 86.9 81.3 K-12 - 0.6 0.9 2.3 1.9 Technical colleges - - 0.0 3.2 2.7 University - - - 7.6 14.1 Total formal - 0.6 0.9 13.1 18.7 Total revenue 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Career Point – New business segments, expansion through VSAT & internet Anand Rathi Research 53 EBITDA margin to expand 160bps in FY14e, from 37.8% in FY11 We estimate the rollout of formal education and the use of technology in the coaching segment to result in a margin expansion to 39.4% in FY14e, from 37.8% in FY11. Fig 17 – EBITDA and EBITDA margins 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 EBITDA EBITDA margin (RHS) (`m) (%) Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Return ratios We expect 32% revenue CAGR over FY12e-14e, and EBITDA growth of 37%. Net profit, however, is estimated at 13% due to high capex. Career Point had an asset turnover of 1.2x in FY11, which is likely to drop to 0.4 in FY12e and FY13e due to heavy capex in formal education. However, we expect this to improve from FY14e, which in turn should improve return ratios. Fig 18 – Return ratios 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e ROE ROCE (%) Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Career Point – New business segments, expansion through VSAT & internet Anand Rathi Research 54 Fig 19 – Income statement (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Revenues 617 786 749 1,008 1,301 Growth (%) 36.6 27.5 (4.7) 34.6 29.0 Expenses 378 489 477 625 791 As % of revenue 61.3 62.2 63.6 61.9 60.8 Cost of goods sold 22 28 28 32 36 As % of revenue 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.2 2.8 Employee cost 209 313 303 327 387 As % of revenue 33.8 39.8 40.4 32.4 29.7 Other costs 147 148 146 202 267 As % of revenue 23.9 18.9 19.5 20.0 20.5 Hostel-related exp - 63 102 As % of revenue - 10.1 12.9 EBITDA 239 297 272 384 509 EBITDA margin (%) 38.7 37.8 36.4 38.1 39.2 Interest 0 1 0 12 36 Depreciation 7 13 18 34 46 Other income 42 67 97 54 24 As % of investments 2.7 1.6 2.0 2.1 1.7 PBT 274 351 351 393 452 Tax 95 119 116 130 149 Effective tax rate (%) 34.7 33.9 33.0 33.0 33.0 PAT 179 232 235 263 303 PAT margin (%) 29.0 29.5 31.4 26.1 23.3 PAT growth (%) 18.5 29.8 1.4 11.8 15.2 Minority interest 0 (1) (1) (1) (1) Extra-ordinary expense 1 1 Reported PAT 178 232 236 264 303 Shares as per BS (y/e) 14.4 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 Diluted shares 14.4 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 FDEPS (`) 12.3 12.8 13.0 14.5 16.7 Growth (%) (0.8) 3.7 1.7 11.8 15.1 Extraordinary & prior period adjustments - (1) Transferred to reserves 178 233 236 264 303 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 20 – Balance Sheet (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Equity 144 181 181 181 181 Reserves 1,181 2,474 2,710 2,973 3,277 Shareholders' funds 1,325 2,655 2,891 3,154 3,458 Debt 1 1 1 201 401 Minority interest 0 0 (0) (1) (2) Capital employed 1,326 2,656 2,891 3,354 3,857 Fixed assets 481 808 1,789 2,556 3,310 Investments 382 1,326 522 222 - Deferred tax assets (2) (3) (3) (3) (3) Cash 227 226 313 266 219 Working capital 238 299 269 313 330 Capital employed 1,326 2,656 2,891 3,354 3,857 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Career Point – New business segments, expansion through VSAT & internet Anand Rathi Research 55 Fig 21 – Cash-flow statement (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e PAT 179 232 236 264 303 + Non-cash expense 6 14 18 34 46 Cash profit 185 246 254 297 349 - Increase/(decrease) in working capital 112 62 (30) 44 17 Operating cash flow 73 185 284 253 332 - Capex 141 340 1,000 800 800 Free cash flow (68) (155) (716) (547) (468) + Equity raised 575 1,097 (1) (1) (1) + Debt raised (51) (1) (0) 200 200 - Investments 360 944 (804) (300) (222) - Dividend paid - - - - - - Misc. expense 1 (0) - - - Net change in cash 95 (1) 87 (47) (47) Opening cash 133 227 226 313 266 Closing cash 227 226 313 266 219 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 22 – RoCE / RoE analysis Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e EBIT/sales (%) 44.4 44.7 46.9 40.1 37.5 Sales/avg. CE (x) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 EBIT/ avg. CE (RoCE) (%) 13.8 12.7 11.2 11.2 11.7 Avg. CE/avg. equity (x) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 PBT/EBIT (x) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 PAT/PBT (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 PAT/avg. equity (RoE) (%) 9.2 8.4 7.5 7.5 7.9 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 23 – Ratio analysis @ `216 Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Diluted shares (m) 14.4 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 FDEPS (`) 12.3 12.8 13.0 14.5 16.7 CEPS (`) 12.8 13.5 14.0 16.4 19.2 BV (`) 91.9 146.4 159.4 174.0 190.7 P/E (x) 17.5 16.9 16.6 14.9 12.9 P/C (x) 16.9 16.0 15.4 13.2 11.2 P/B (x) 2.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 EV/sales (x) 4.1 3.0 4.1 3.6 3.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.5 8.0 11.3 9.5 8.0 Net gearing (%) (45.7) (58.3) (28.9) (9.1) 5.2 Working capital turnover (days) 140.8 138.9 131.2 113.3 92.6 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Career Point – New business segments, expansion through VSAT & internet Anand Rathi Research 56 Company Background & Management Incorporated in 1993 by Pramod Maheshwari, Career Point provides tutorial services, through classroom programs via a network of company-operated and franchise centers, to students of high schools and beyond for competitive entrance examinations such as IIT-JEE, AIEEE and AIPMT. Brief history and business Incorporated in 1993 by Pramod Maheshwari, Career Point provides tutorial services to students in high school and beyond for various competitive entrance examinations, including IIT-JEE, AIEEE and AIPMT. The services are provided through classroom programs conducted through a network of company-operated and franchised centers. The company has over 230 faculty members (excluding those of the franchisees) comprising graduates in engineering and science. It has, over time, built up content of over 10,000 pages of text and 12,000 minutes of video for various tutorial services. For students unable to attend regular classroom programs, it offers distance-learning programs comprising correspondence and test courses, systematically designed to provide effective education to students in a simple and lucid manner. The company recently made a foray into Education Consultancy and Management Services (ECMS), catering to K-12 and higher education. Further, to address a larger base of potential students, it has introduced a technology-enabled education-delivery platform for content through ‘TechEdge Class’. Key management personnel Fig 24 – Management Key person Designation Background Pramod Maheshwari Chairman and Managing Director B.Tech from IIT, Delhi. First-generation entrepreneur and key founder member. Over 15 years’ experience in developing and implementing training methodologies. Plays a major role in providing thought, leadership and strategic guidance, in addition to supervising function heads. Responsible for overall operations and growth. Om Prakash Maheshwari Director, CFO Bachelor’s in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Rajasthan. Over 16 years' experience in finance. Naval Kishore Maheshwari Director B. Com. from the Maharshi Dayanand Saraswati University, Ajmer. Associated with the company since its incorporation. Shailendra Maheshwari Senior VP, Academics & Product Development B.E. (Electronics & Communications); Has been with the Career Point group since 1995. Over 15 years’ experience in teaching. Mithilesh Dixit Sr. VP, School & Vocational Education MBA in Business Development and Marketing and Doctorate in International Relations from Trinity University, USA. Over 27 years’ experience in the academic and corporate sector with specific exposure to corporate affairs. Rajneesh Goyal VP, Academics – Test Preparation B.E. (Production & Industry). Joined Career Point group in 1999. Nine years’ experience in education. Currently, overall in-charge of the mathematics department. Source: Company The company has over 230 faculty members (excluding the franchisees) comprising graduates in engineering and science. It has created content of over 10,000 pages of text and 12,000 minutes of video for various tutorial services.
    • Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Disclosures and analyst certifications are located in Appendix 1 Anand Rathi Research India Equities Atul Thakkar +9122 66266724 atulthakkar@rathi.com Key financials (YE Mar) FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Sales (`m) 8,470 10,912 14,236 17,328 20,811 Net profit (`m) 1,717 2,250 2,912 3,358 4,164 EPS (`)* 18.7 21.7 24.1 27.8 34.4 Growth (%) 8.5 16.1 10.7 15.3 24.0 PE (x) 13.8 11.9 10.7 9.3 7.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.8 7.3 7.5 6.1 4.8 P/BV (x) 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.4 RoE (%) 22.8 21.7 22.0 20.7 21.0 RoCE (%) 22.7 21.4 20.5 20.7 21.1 Dividend yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 Net gearing (%) 34.2 54.9 44.8 33.9 19.4 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research * EPS is on fully diluted basis assuming all FCCB’s to be converted Education Initiating Coverage India I Equities 29 December 2011 Core Education Leveraging skills from developed markets Through 12 acquisitions in six years, Core Education (CETL) has transformed itself from a low-end IT-service provider to a high-end education-service provider. Core gained entry to Western markets via its acquisitions, adding ~US$150m to FY11 revenue. Leveraging this experience, it is now entering into public-private partnerships and private K-12 schools in India. It offers integrated ICT solutions, end-to- end management of government schools, and vocational training of government staff. We initiate coverage with a Buy and a price target of `340.  Penetrating developed markets via acquisitions. Over 2005-11, Core acquired 12 companies/businesses in the US and UK. With this, it built up a base for its education business, added ~US$150m in revenue and gained a foothold in the US and UK markets with over 120 clients.  Unfolding India story via government projects. In FY11, Core’s Internet and Communication Technology (ICT) segment was awarded projects in 9,000 schools (amounting to orders of over `6bn). It is also investing in model schools (via private-public partnerships) and vocational education. Further, it plans to set up K-12 schools and an international university in AP.  Balance sheet to be stretched yet manageable. Over FY11-14, we expect 24% and 23% CAGR in, respectively, revenue and net profit, with EBITDA margin at present levels (35-36%). Balance sheet is likely to be stretched yet manageable, with debt-equity ratio of 0.5x and interest-coverage ratio of 4.5x.  Valuation. We expect 24% and 23% CAGR in revenue and net profit, respectively, over FY11-14. Our price target of `340 discounts FY13e and FY14e earnings 12x and 10x, respectively. Risks: Execution delays due to government processes, dependence on partners for content. Rating: Buy Target Price: `340 Share Price: `258 Key data CETL IN / CORE.BO 52-week high / low `351 / `232 Sensex / Nifty 15971 / 4779 3-m average volume US$1.7m Market cap `28.9bn / US$556.9m Shares outstanding 111.2m Shareholding pattern (%) Sep ’11 Jun ’11 Mar ’11 Promoters 46.78 47.03 47.64 - of which, pledged 13.36 13.11 12.74 Free float 53.22 52.97 52.36 - Foreign institutions 21.62 20.85 20.67 - Domestic institutions 2.58 1.82 1.60 - Public 29.02 30.3 30.09 Relative price performance CETL Sensex 245 280 315 350 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Source: Bloomberg
    • 29 December 2011 Core Education – Leveraging skills from developed markets Anand Rathi Research 58 Quick Glance – Financials and Valuations Fig 1 – Income statement (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Net revenues 8,470 10,912 14,236 17,328 20,811 Revenue growth (%) 25.0 28.8 30.5 21.7 20.1 - Op. expenses 5,602 6,976 9,219 11,221 13,475 EBIDTA 2,868 3,936 5,017 6,107 7,336 EBITDA margin (%) 33.9 36.1 35.2 35.2 35.3 - Interest expenses 417 787 802 1,206 1,224 - Depreciation 412 586 621 821 955 + Other income 38 156 37 66 114 - Tax 354 469 719 788 1,107 Effective tax rate (%) 17 17 20 19 21 Reported PAT 1,723 2,250 2,912 3,358 4,164 +/- Extraordinary items (6) - - - - +/- Minority interest - - - - - Adjusted PAT 1,717 2,250 2,912 3,358 4,164 Adj. FDEPS (`/share) 18.7 21.7 24.1 27.8 34.4 Adj. FDEPS growth (%) 8.5 16.1 10.7 15.3 24.0 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 3 – Cash-flow statement (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e PAT 1,712 2,250 2,912 3,358 4,164 + Non-cash items 434 607 621 821 955 Cash profit 2,145 2,858 3,532 4,180 5,119 - Incr./(decr.) in WC 1,368 3,193 982 1,199 1,092 Operating cash-flow 777 (336) 2,550 2,981 4,027 - Capex 2,420 3,597 2,418 2,350 2,100 Free cash-flow (1,643) (3,932) 132 631 1,927 - Dividend 73 79 127 127 127 + Equity raised 1,150 742 (58) (0) (0) + Debt raised 306 4,815 - 2,500 - - Investments 296 164 - - - - Misc. items (6) - - - - Net cash-flow (549) 1,382 (53) 3,004 1,799 + Op. cash & bank bal. 1,064 514 1,897 1,844 4,847 Cl. cash & bank bal. 514 1,897 1,844 4,847 6,647 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 5 – Valuation chart (EV/EBITDA) Core Education 1x 3x 6x 10x 8x 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Source: Bloomberg, Anand Rathi Research Fig 2 – Balance sheet (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Share capital 197 218 207 207 207 Reserves & surplus 8,760 11,606 14,390 17,621 21,658 Net worth 8,957 11,824 14,597 17,828 21,865 Minority interest - 47 - - - Total debt 3,580 8,395 8,395 10,895 10,895 Def. tax liab. (net) 43 64 64 64 64 Capital employed 12,579 20,330 23,056 28,787 32,824 Net fixed assets 6,363 9,374 11,171 12,699 13,844 Investments 296 459 459 459 459 - of which, liquid - - - - - Net working capital 5,407 8,600 9,582 10,781 11,873 Cash and bank balance 514 1,897 1,844 4,847 6,647 Capital deployed 12,579 20,330 23,056 28,787 32,824 Net debt 3,066 6,498 6,551 6,048 4,248 WC days 233 288 246 227 208 Book value (`/sh) 97.7 127.1 120.7 147.4 180.7 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 4 – Ratio analysis @ `258 Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e CEPS (`/share) 23.2 27.4 29.2 34.5 42.3 Cash / (debt)(`/share) (33.4) (62.8) (54.2) (50.0) (35.1) P/E (x) 13.8 11.9 10.7 9.3 7.5 P/B (x) 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.4 P/C (x) 11.1 9.4 8.8 7.5 6.1 EV/sales (x) 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.2 1.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.8 7.3 7.5 6.1 4.8 EBIT/sales (%) 29.4 32.1 31.1 30.9 31.2 Sales/average CE (x) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 RoCE (%) 22.7 21.4 20.5 20.7 21.1 Avg. CE/ avg. eq. (x) 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 PBT/EBIT (x) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 PAT/PBT (x) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 RoE (%) 22.8 21.7 22.0 20.7 21.0 Dividend yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 6 – Revenue break-up 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e 1,500 1,700 1,900 2,100 2,300 2,500 2,700 2,900 3,100 3,300 Education sales IT/ITES (RHS) (`m) (`m) Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Core Education – Leveraging skills from developed markets Anand Rathi Research 59 Investment argument and valuation Core Education has transformed itself from an IT service-provider into an international education service provider, following 12 acquisitions. The company is leveraging its newly-gained expertise to break into the Indian education sector, chiefly with the government, through integrated ICT solutions, end-to-end management of government schools, and vocational training of the staff of state and national government bodies. Developed markets: acquisition-based strategy Core Education has turned from an IT service-provider to an international educationist after its acquisition of US-based company ECS in 2006. ECS had IT solutions and clients in healthcare, BFSI and education. In the past six years Core acquired 12 companies, mostly in education services, (combined revenue: ~US$150m) at a cost of ~US$124m. These acquisitions helped Core make inroads into the US and UK markets. With this, the company’s focus has now shifted to its education-led business. The company’s strategy was to acquire small-ticket companies in various geographies and products. It thereby made vital inroads into government business, simultaneously cross-selling products obtained through acquisitions. Unfolding India story through government projects Core is utilizing its international expertise to break into the Indian education arena, chiefly with the government. It offers integrated ICT solutions, which has roots in traditional hardware/IT training, and plans to move up the value chain with end-to-end management of government schools. In a year, it has been awarded 9,000 schools in various segments by state governments. It has also been awarded contracts in vocational training by state and national government bodies to train their staff. It has also pre-qualified to bid for a Rajasthan government project that involves building 50 model schools on a BOOT basis for 30 years. Robust revenue growth; balance sheet to be stretched We expect Core to post an organic 24% CAGR in revenue over FY11- FY14, with net profit at 23%. On its leveraged balance sheet, it has loans of `8.4bn (FY11), including FCCBs of US$75m with a 7% coupon (quarterly payment). Core would require additional funds for its fresh initiatives (K-12 and ICT). However, with an FY11 debt-equity ratio of 0.5:1 and interest-coverage ratio of 4.5, its debt is manageable. Valuation We expect the FDEPS to rise from `21.7 in FY11 to `34.4 three years on. At the current price of `258, the stock trades at PE of 9.3x and 7.5x FY13e and FY14e earnings, respectively. We assign it a price target of `340, based on the target PE of 12x its FY13e EPS of `27.8. Bagged ICT orders for 9,000 government schools during FY11
    • 29 December 2011 Core Education – Leveraging skills from developed markets Anand Rathi Research 60 Risks  Dependent on government regulations and policies. Most of Core’s business arises from government schools and colleges. Hence, it greatly depends on government funding, regulations and policies.  Great dependence on tie-ups. Without its own comprehensive content, it depends on strategic tie-ups and has to pay royalties to partners.  Macro-economic risk. Spending on education is primarily led by the government; hence, any global meltdown could cut into government spend. Fig 7 – PE band CETL 3x 6x 9x 13x 16x 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11Source: Bloomberg, Anand Rathi Research Fig 8 – PBV band CETL 0.5x 1.0x 1.5x 3.0x 2.0x 0 75 150 225 300 375 450 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Source: Bloomberg, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Core Education – Leveraging skills from developed markets Anand Rathi Research 61 Acquisitions in developed markets Through 12 acquisitions in six years, Core has transformed itself from a low-end IT-service provider to a high-end education-service provider. Its focus is now shifting to its education-led business. Its strategy is to acquire companies with patented products. It now markets and cross-sells these products under one roof. This strategy has led to the company making inroads into the US and UK markets. Acquisitions In the last six years Core has turned from being a low-end IT-service provider to a high-end education-service provider through 12 acquisitions (for ~US$124m), which generated ~US$150m in revenue. With this, its focus has now shifted to its education-led business. These acquisitions have helped it make inroads into the US and UK markets. Key skills / clients Core’s strategy has been to acquire companies that have patented products and are available at ~1-1.2x TTM sales, with low to negative net profit margins. These companies were mostly in the early stages of business, were cash-strapped and finding it difficult to grow on their own. The company has retained the core teams of most of its acquisitions, so as to benefit from the existing talent pool and leverage the existing client relationships. Core has leveraged the intellectual property rights (IPR) of the companies it acquired by cross-selling the products and marketing them under one roof. With this, the company has increased its share in the US and UK education markets. Core’s strategy is to acquire small-ticket companies in various geographies and segments. It has thereby made vital inroads into government business (70% of the education industry in the US is run by the government) and increased its market share in the states where new acquisitions had existing relationships. Race-to-the-top fund Under the ‘Race to the top’ fund, the US government has allocated ~US$6bn to18 states to improve the overall quality of education, laying emphasis on formative assessment (tools to monitor student progress) and intervention (tools directed at students’ specific areas of need). These are Core’s focus areas and it currently operates in six of these 12 states. It aims at gaining a major share of this expenditure. Competitors Large companies that compete with Core include McGraw Hill, Acquity; Houghton Mifflin, EduSoft, Exam View, Pearson Performance Assessment Series, ScanTron, SchoolNet Assess Module and ThinkGate. 12 acquisitions in 6 years at a cost of US$125m, with revenue of US$150m
    • 29 December 2011 Core Education – Leveraging skills from developed markets Anand Rathi Research 62 Strategy The size of the formative assessment market in the US was ~US$750m in 2011. Core claims to be the third-largest player in this market, with ~US$40m in revenue from the US. The company provides schools with qualified staff as per requirements. In the UK, Core provides teachers for over 3,000 active schools that are its clients. The company has ~3,600 teachers and 1,300 teaching assistants that have been vetted and are available. Core plans to continue its strategy of acquiring small regional players to grow in the US and the UK. Hence, it would continue to aggressively acquire companies that are established in new states and have quality content/products. Margin expansion through off-shoring Core is predominantly a provider of IT platform-based education products and solutions in the US and UK, stands to benefit from the cost advantages that it derives through its offshore development centers based out of India. The company currently operates three Global Delivery Centers (GDCs) in India, employing ~110 people working on technology platform development for various projects originating from global locations such as the US and the UK. Additionally, back-end activities such accounting, payroll management are also handled from India. Over 30% of CETL's manpower needs have been shifted to India, leading to lower manpower costs as compared to its peers in the US. Comprehensive product offerings CETL has built a comprehensive portfolio of products and services in the education space. This covers assessment, intervention, compliance & reporting, grants & financial management systems, student information systems, teacher training and professional development and consulting. The company has a ready foundation to tap growth opportunities in the education space globally: the requisite technology (IPRs, products) and service experience (100,000 teachers, 34.49m students and over 88,000 schools worldwide). Fig 9 – Global business strategy Assessment   250,000 test items in assessment Assessment engine online examination management systems    EVON - Educational video online learning Professional development Education recruitment for academics & support staff Teaching    Content in math, science for intervention products Content for vocational course CORE learning management open system Learning     Compliance & reporting Grants and financial management Student information systems Education customised application development & integration Governance+ + + Trained & placed over 105,000 teachers Covering over 2,000 schools and more than 1.5m students Covering over 5,000 schools and more than 4.8m students Addressing over 3.8m children in more than 16,000 schools      Application Development Customization Integration Application Maintenance Ongoing Support Source: Company
    • 29 December 2011 Core Education – Leveraging skills from developed markets Anand Rathi Research 63 India story via government projects Leveraging its success in Western markets, Core is now tapping the Indian education arena chiefly through the government, with integrated ICT solutions (rooted in traditional IT hardware training) and end-to-end management of IT systems for schools. It has ventured into vocational training and training staff of state and national government bodies. It also plans to enter the formal education sector by setting up K-12 schools and an international university in AP. `6bn order-book in the ICT segment Having tasted success in the Western markets, Core is tapping the Indian education arena, chiefly with the government. It is keen to offer integrated ICT solutions (with roots in traditional IT hardware training) and end-to- end management of IT systems for schools. Within a year it has been awarded 9,000 schools in various segments by state governments. Fig 10 – ICT value chain Integrated ICT Offerings - Turnkey BOOT Solutions Hardware and Software Infrastructure Computer Literacy Computer Aided Learning CAL Educational Management End-to-End Project Management Source: Company Fig 11 – Government projects in the pipeline Client Brief description Haryana ICT BOOT: 2622 schools Maharashtra ICT: BOOT: 947 schools Gujarat ICT BOOT: 645 schools Nagaland ICT BOOT: 73 schools Gujarat Implementation of CAL: across 3,236 schools Meghalaya Implementation of CAL: across 267 schools Assam Implementation of a web-based child-tracking system Punjab Provision of multimedia equipment: across 1,250 schools Tripura Implementation of learning management system Jharkhand Implementation of a web-based child-tracking system NPIU, Ministry of HRD Implementation of online MIS for 200 institutions Karnataka State Open Univ Implementation of EMS for over 75,000 students Source: Company Other government-related key initiatives Core has ventured into vocational training. It is working with state and national government bodies to train their staff. A few of its key assignments are:  IT training programme for more than 1,960 officers of the Delhi Police.  Industrial Training Center at Mhape with accreditation from the Maharashtra government to start training government employees.  Further, Core is pre-qualified to bid for a Rajasthan government project that involves the establishment, management and operation of 50 senior secondary schools (or “model schools”) through a public-
    • 29 December 2011 Core Education – Leveraging skills from developed markets Anand Rathi Research 64 private partnership (PPP) on a design, build, finance, manage, operate and transfer basis. The 50 model schools are divided into groups of five schools in each district, each of which constitutes one project. This will be on a BOOT basis for 30 years. The government will provide land, whereas Core will build the remaining infrastructure and block 25% of the seats for government. These 25% seats will be allocated to students as decided by the government. Fees for these would be paid by the state government. Fig 12 – Select vocational projects Key Clients Brief Description Delhi Police IT literacy programme for 1960+ Delhi police personnel DUDA Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh Placement-oriented training to BPL youth under the government’s rural employment scheme, Swaran Jayanti Shahri Rozgar Yojna (SJSRY). RDMA Madurai, Tamil Nadu Placement-oriented training to BPL youth under SJSRY Tata Motors – GKS initiative Training Female candidates in five villages of Gujarat. Tata Motors’ Corporate Social Responsibility DOET- Gujarat Skill upgrading and enhancement ITC Mahape Job-oriented skill-upgrading courses in select industry verticals. Source: Company Initiatives in the private education space  Core intends to venture into formal education by setting up K-12 schools, under the International Baccalaureate (IB) board across India, and is currently in the process of identifying potential collaborations for the management and operation of such schools, as well as identifying and assessing potential land acquisitions for the construction of these schools. The company plans to open an international university in AP.
    • 29 December 2011 Core Education – Leveraging skills from developed markets Anand Rathi Research 65 Financials We expect Core Education to register 24% revenue CAGR (FY11- FY14e). However, PAT is estimated to grow by just 23% during the same period, primarily on account of deprecation and interest cost. Government orders to boost revenue: 24% CAGR (FY11- FY14e) We expect Core to post an organic 24% CAGR in revenue over FY11- FY14e. This should primarily arise from its present order book in the domestic market (`6bn in the ICT segment), and also from the US spend on formative assessment. Fig 13 – Revenue and revenue growth 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e 0 30 60 90 120 150 Revneue Growth (RHS) (`m) (%) Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Interest & depreciation to limit net profit growth: 23% CAGR (FY11-14e) We expect 23% CAGR in net profit growth over FY11-FY14. This is less then the growth in revenue, primarily due to below-the-operations-line items, i.e., higher interest costs (FCCB interest), depreciation charges (ICT hardware). Fig 14 – Net profit and net profit growth (%) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 PAT Growth (RHS) (`m) (%) Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Core Education – Leveraging skills from developed markets Anand Rathi Research 66 Balance sheet likely to be stretched In order to fund its expansion plans both in matured markets (acquisitions) and in India (government projects), Core has leveraged its balance sheet. It has loans of `8.4bn (FY11), including FCCBs of US$75m with a coupon rate of 7% (quarterly payment) and conversion at `272 a share, due in FY15. It would yet require additional funds for its fresh initiatives (K-12 and ICT). Nevertheless, Core has a manageable debt-equity ratio of 0.5:1 (FY11) and an interest-coverage ratio of 4.5 (FY11). Fig 15 – Debt equity, interest coverage ratios FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e (Net debt) / cash (`m) 261 (1,141) (2,219) (3,066) (6,498) (6,551) (6,048) (4,248) Net cash (per share) (`) 3.8 (13.8) (25.7) (33.4) (69.9) (54.2) (50.0) (35.1) Net debt to equity (x) (0.3) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Interest coverage ratio (x) 22.6 38.3 8.9 6.0 4.5 5.5 4.4 5.3 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Core Education – Leveraging skills from developed markets Anand Rathi Research 67 Fig 16 – Income statement (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Revenues 8,470 10,912 14,236 17,328 20,811 Growth (%) 25.0 28.8 30.5 21.7 20.1 Expenses 5,602 6,976 9,219 11,221 13,475 As % of revenue 66.1 63.9 64.8 64.8 64.7 Hardware/software COGS (216) (444) (278) 286 312 As % of revenue (2.5) (4.1) (2.0) 1.7 1.5 Software development 4,889 5,775 7,571 9,140 10,873 As % of revenue 57.7 52.9 53.2 52.7 52.2 Other costs 929 1,645 1,926 1,795 2,289 As % of revenue 11.0 15.1 13.5 10.4 11.0 EBITDA 2,868 3,936 5,017 6,107 7,336 EBITDA margin (%) 33.9 36.1 35.2 35.2 35.3 Interest 417 787 802 1,206 1,224 Depreciation 412 586 621 821 955 Other income 38 156 37 66 114 As % of investments 4.7 6.6 1.6 1.2 1.6 PBT 2,077 2,719 3,631 4,146 5,271 Tax 354 469 719 788 1,107 Effective tax rate (%) 17.0 17.2 19.8 19.0 21.0 PAT 1,723 2,250 2,912 3,358 4,164 PAT margin (%) 20.3 20.6 20.5 19.4 20.0 Minority interest - - Extra-ordinary expense (6) - - - - Reported PAT 1,717 2,250 2,912 3,358 4,164 Shares - as per BS (y/e) (nos.) 98.6 109.1 109.1 109.1 109.1 Diluted shares (nos.) 91.7 103.5 121.0 121.0 121.0 FDEPS 18.7 21.7 24.1 27.8 34.4 Growth (%) 8.5 16.1 10.7 15.3 24.0 Dividend 62 65 109 109 109 DPS 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 Dividend tax 11 13 18 18 18 Dividend payout (%) 4.2 3.5 4.4 3.8 3.1 Extraordinary & prior period adjustments Transferred to reserves 1,644 2,172 2,784 3,231 4,037 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 17 – Balance sheet (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Equity 197 218 207 207 207 Reserves 8,760 11,606 14,390 17,621 21,658 Shareholders' funds 8,957 11,824 14,597 17,828 21,865 Debt 3,580 8,395 8,395 10,895 10,895 Minority interest - 47 - - - Capital employed 12,537 20,266 22,992 28,723 32,760 Fixed assets 6,363 9,374 11,171 12,699 13,844 Investments 296 459 459 459 459 Deferred tax assets (43) (64) (64) (64) (64) Cash 514 1,897 1,844 4,847 6,647 Working capital 5,407 8,600 9,582 10,781 11,873 Capital deployed 12,537 20,266 22,992 28,723 32,760 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Core Education – Leveraging skills from developed markets Anand Rathi Research 68 Fig 18 – Cash flow statement (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e PAT 1,712 2,250 2,912 3,358 4,164 + non-cash expense 434 607 621 821 955 Cash profit 2,145 2,858 3,532 4,180 5,119 - Increase/(decrease) in working capital 1,368 3,193 982 1,199 1,092 Operating cash flow 777 (336) 2,550 2,981 4,027 - Capex 2,420 3,597 2,418 2,350 2,100 Free cash flow (1,643) (3,932) 132 631 1,927 + Equity raised 1,150 742 (58) (0) (0) + Debt raised 306 4,815 - 2,500 - - Investments 296 164 - - - - Dividend paid 73 79 127 127 127 - Misc. expense (6) - - - - Net change in cash (549) 1,382 (53) 3,004 1,799 Opening cash 1,064 514 1,897 1,844 4,847 Closing cash 514 1,897 1,844 4,847 6,647 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 19 – Ratio analysis @ `258 Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Diluted shares (m) 91.7 103.5 121.0 121.0 121.0 FDEPS (`) 18.7 21.7 24.1 27.8 34.4 CEPS (`) 23.2 27.4 29.2 34.5 42.3 BV (`) 97.7 114.2 120.7 147.4 180.7 ABV (`) 97.7 114.2 120.7 147.4 180.7 P/E (x) 13.8 11.9 10.7 9.3 7.5 P/C (x) 11.1 9.4 8.8 7.5 6.1 P/B (x) 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.4 DPS (`) 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 Dividend yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 Dividend payout (%) 4.2 3.5 4.4 3.8 3.1 EV/Sales (x) 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.2 1.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.8 7.3 7.5 6.1 4.8 EBIT/Sales (%) 29.4 32.1 31.1 30.9 31.2 Sales/Avg.CE (x) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Debt/Equity (x) 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 ROCE (%) 22.7 21.4 20.5 20.7 21.1 Avg. CE/avg. equity (x) 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 PBT/EBIT (x) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 PAT/PBT (x) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 ROE (%) 22.8 21.7 22.0 20.7 21.0 Net gearing (%) 34.2 54.9 44.8 33.9 19.4 Working capital turnover (days) 233 288 246 227 208 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Core Education – Leveraging skills from developed markets Anand Rathi Research 69 Company background & management Core Education (formerly Akhileshwar Texports) was predominantly into IT (ERP, healthcare, BFSI and logistics). In 2005, it entered education, and now operates in the US, UK, West Asia (the Middle East), Central Africa and India through acquiring companies in education and with software covering school-management systems, assessment systems, accountability systems and IT-infrastructure systems. Brief history and business Incorporated on 11 Apr ’85, Akhileshwar Texports’ name was changed to Core Projects & Technologies on 16 Oct ’03. Core was predominantly into IT, focusing on domains such as ERP, healthcare, BFSI and logistics. In 2005, it entered the education space, which holds vast potential, with its products. It now operates in the US, the UK, West Asia (the Middle East), Central Africa and India. By acquiring ECS, KCMG, Hamlet and Azzuri, all operating within the sphere of education, Core has software products covering various aspects of education, including those in school-management systems, assessment systems, accountability systems and IT-infrastructure systems. The education customer base spans the US, the UK, Africa, Sri Lanka, the Bahamas, the Caribbean and India. Board of directors / key management personnel Fig 20 – Management Key person Designation Background Sanjeev Mansotra CMD Established stable and profit-making entities in information technology, health management and international trade. Prof. Dr. Arun Nigavekar Executive Director A physicist and educationist with experience of over 40 years in academics. Among the positions held, are Vice Chairman and Chairman of the University Grants Commission, Member of the Scientific Advisory Committee to the Cabinet, Founder Director, National Assessment and Accreditation Council and Vice Chancellor of University of Pune. Nikhil Morsawala Director Finance CA. 20 years’ business management experience in mergers and acquisitions and setting up service organizations. Well-versed in global norms, policies and statutory compliances. Maya Sinha Executive Director A bureaucrat for the last 28 years, belongs to the 1981 batch of the Indian Revenue Service. Served in the department of income tax for over 20 years at various designations including commissioner of income tax. She served as the Deputy Chairman, Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust (JNPT). Prakash Gupta CEO, UK operations 25 years’ experience in IT consulting in the US. Bachelor’s in science and an MBA from the California State University. Source: Company
    • 29 December 2011 Core Education – Leveraging skills from developed markets Anand Rathi Research 70 Fig 21 – Company model and historic timeline CORE Staffing & Consulting Services CORE Advanced Technologies CORE Teaching T CORE Learning L CORE Assessment A CORE Governance G PrivateGovernment IndiaInternational CORE K12 Education CORE Vocational Education CORE Higher Education Brick Business Services Business Phase 1 - 2003-07 ITES Solutions for governance US market focus India as offshore development Phase 2 - 2007-10 Software & advanced technologies Assessment & learning solutions US & UK market presence Phase 3 - 2010+ World class solutions for entire education continuum Wide global footprint in 8 years Innovations & IP Successful inorganic growth & integration 9,000 schools in 1 year in India Source: Company
    • Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Disclosures and analyst certifications are located in Appendix 1 Anand Rathi Research India Equities Atul Thakkar +9122 66266724 atulthakkar@rathi.com Education Initiating Coverage India I Equities Key financials (YE Mar) FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Sales (`m) 10,395 13,509 16,055 19,407 22,014 Net profit (`m) 2,779 3,294 2,945 4,237 5,254 EPS (`) 29.3 34.7 31.0 44.5 55.2 Growth (%) 89.0 18.5 (10.7) 43.9 24.0 PE (x) 6.8 5.8 6.5 4.5 3.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 4.4 5.3 4.7 3.5 2.6 P/BV (x) 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 RoE (%) 27.4 17.2 12.8 16.4 17.6 RoCE (%) 23.5 15.0 13.5 17.8 20.5 Dividend yield (%) 1.5 0.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 Net gearing (%) 13.6 45.1 46.4 34.4 15.5 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research 29 December 2011 Educomp High competition in SLS, stretched balance sheet; Hold Educomp (EDSL) is the only player in India offering end-to-end services in the education sector. The rising share of its subsidiaries in revenue, chiefly due to the strong growth in K-12, is likely to reduce dependence on the Smartclass segment of School Learning Solutions. However, rising competition and high debt-equity ratio may slow down business growth. We initiate coverage with a Hold.  School Learning Solutions (SLS). The SLS segment, (73% of FY11 revenue), is likely to see slower growth due to high competition in the Smartclass segment of SLS, which may restrict realization per classroom, and management’s selective bidding approach in the low-margin Information and Communication Technology (ICT) business. Further, we are not bullish on the company’s securitization model, due to its attached contingencies.  Subsidiaries’ share in revenue inching up. In the last six quarters, share of subsidiaries in revenue has risen from 27% to 36.5%, chiefly driven by strong growth in K-12. This should help reduce dependence on SLS, which is facing stiff competition. However, subsidiaries are still in investment mode and are expected to turn positive in 15-18 months.  Stretched balance sheet to be re-financed. EDSL has debt of `19bn (2QFY12), including FCCBs of US$78.5m (redemption: Jun ’12, at `590 each), which would have to be redeemed with US$18m interest. It also has debt of `9.6bn (216 days), with a debt-equity ratio of 1.24 (including contingent liabilities), which may slow down business growth. However, management has indicated it would raise funds by selling stakes in a few assets. Further, it would take ECBs to repay the FCCBs.  Valuation. We expect 18% and 17.5% CAGR in revenue and net profit, respectively, over FY11-14. Our `260 target price discounts FY13e and FY14e earnings by 6x and 5x, respectively. Risks. Execution/project delays; regulatory risks for the K-12 division. Rating: Hold Target Price: `260 Share Price: `200 Relative price performance EDSL Sensex 150 300 450 600 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Source: Bloomberg Key data EDSL IN / EDSO.BO 52-week high / low `574 / `162 Sensex / Nifty 15971 / 4779 3-m average volume US$12.7m Market cap `19.2bn / US$369m Shares outstanding 96.01m Shareholding pattern (%) Sep’11 Jun ’11 Mar ’11 Promoters 49.53 49.55 49.77 - of which, pledged - - - Free float 50.47 50.45 50.23 - Foreign institutions 29.22 34.94 35.97 - Domestic institutions 2.65 2.55 2.15 - Public 18.6 12.96 12.11
    • 29 December 2011 Educomp – High competition in SLS, stretched balance sheet; Hold Anand Rathi Research 72 Quick Glance – Financials and Valuations Fig 1 – Income statement (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Net revenues 10,395 13,509 16,055 19,407 22,014 Revenue growth (%) 63.2 30.0 18.8 20.9 13.4 - Op. expenses 5,534 8,067 9,629 11,304 12,825 EBIDTA 4,861 5,442 6,426 8,103 9,189 EBITDA margin (%) 46.8 40.3 40.0 41.8 41.7 - Interest expenses 539 962 1,113 962 695 - Depreciation 1,142 841 1,105 1,502 1,627 + Other income 1,255 461 41 634 910 - Tax 1,584 678 1,304 2,036 2,524 Effective tax rate (%) 35.7 16.5 30.7 32.5 32.5 Reported PAT 2,851 3,422 2,945 4,237 5,254 +/- Extraordinary items 14 2 - - - +/- Minority interest 57 127 - - - Adjusted PAT 2,779 3,294 2,945 4,237 5,254 Adj. FDEPS (`/share) 29.3 34.7 31.0 44.5 55.2 Adj. FDEPS growth (%) 89.0 18.5 (10.7) 43.9 24.0 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 3 – Cash-flow statement (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e PAT 2,793 3,296 2,945 4,237 5,254 + Non-cash items 725 963 1,105 1,502 1,627 Cash profit 3,519 4,259 4,050 5,739 6,881 - Incr./(Decr.) in WC 1,965 3,844 2,630 864 153 Operating cash-flow 1,553 415 1,420 4,875 6,727 - Capex 8,478 10,459 2,574 1,758 2,091 Free cash-flow (6,925) (10,044) (1,154) 3,116 4,636 - Dividend 333 71 334 334 334 + Equity raised 11,318 2,516 1 (896) 95 + Debt raised 1,583 3,895 - (3,900) (3,000) - Investments (375) (290) - - - - Misc. items 34 (15) - - - Net cash-flow 5,985 (3,398) (1,487) (2,014) 1,397 + Op. cash & bank bal. 1,902 7,886 4,489 3,001 987 Cl. cash & bank bal. 7,887 4,489 3,001 987 2,385 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 5 – Valuation chart (EV/EBITDA) 4x 8x 12x 20x 16x 0 40 80 120 160 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Educomp Source: Bloomberg, Anand Rathi Research Fig 2 – Balance sheet (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Share capital 190 191 190 190 190 Reserves & surplus 16,289 21,593 24,206 27,214 32,228 Net worth 16,479 21,784 24,397 27,404 32,419 Minority interest 1,915 2,365 2,365 2,365 2,365 Total debt 10,478 14,373 14,373 10,473 7,473 Def. tax liab. (net) 22 144 144 144 144 Capital employed 28,894 38,667 41,279 40,387 42,402 Net fixed assets 16,687 26,305 27,774 28,031 28,495 Investments 354 64 64 64 64 - of which, Liquid - - - - - Net working capital 3,966 7,810 10,440 11,304 11,458 Cash and bank balance 7,887 4,489 3,001 987 2,385 Capital deployed 28,894 38,667 41,279 40,387 42,401 Net debt 2,592 9,884 11,372 9,486 5,089 WC days 139.3 211.0 237.3 212.6 190.0 Book value (`/sh) 173.5 229.2 256.5 288.1 340.8 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 4 – Ratio analysis @ `200 Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e CEPS (`/share) 41.3 43.5 42.6 60.3 72.3 Cash / (debt)( `/share) (27.3) (104.0) (119.5) (99.7) (53.5) P/E (x) 6.8 5.8 6.5 4.5 3.6 P/B (x) 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 P/C (x) 4.8 4.6 4.7 3.3 2.8 EV/sales (x) 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 4.4 5.3 4.7 3.5 2.6 EBIT/sales (%) 47.8 37.5 33.4 37.3 38.5 Sales/average CE (x) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 RoCE (%) 23.5 15.0 13.5 17.8 20.5 Avg. CE/ avg. eq. (x) 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 PBT/EBIT (x) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 PAT/PBT (x) 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 RoE (%) 27.4 17.2 12.8 16.4 17.6 Dividend yield (%) 1.5 0.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 6 – Revenue break-up 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 FY10 FY11 FY12e Smart class revenue ICT revenue Pre school K-12 schools Higher learning solutions E-learning revenues (`m) Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Educomp – High competition in SLS, stretched balance sheet; Hold Anand Rathi Research 73 Investment argument and valuation Educomp (EDSL) is the only player in India offering end-to-end services in the education sector. We expect the rising share of its subsidiaries in revenue, chiefly due to strong growth in K-12, to reduce dependence on the Smartclass segment. However, a high debt-equity ratio may slow down business growth. Our target price of `260 discounts FY13e and FY14e earnings by 6x and 5x respectively. We initiate coverage on the stock with a Hold rating. SLS boom or bust? Educomp has been a pioneer in multimedia course content in the schools space with its successful product, Smartclass. A 10x growth in its private school portfolio over FY06-FY11 is evidence of the increasing demand for such products in schools. However, the success of Smartclass has prompted competition, which we believe will make multimedia in classes a commodity in the near future. Educomp’s securitization model has many caveats attached: i) Payment default by schools could bring the entire cash flow chain to a standstill; ii) frontloading of revenues: Educomp books the revenue in two years with a contingent liability (100%/ 20%) of 5 years; iii) change in interest rates by banks may make the model unsustainable for local vendors. Increasing share of subsidiaries in revenue Educomp is one of the few end-to-end service providers in the entire sector with a wide range of service offerings, from pre-school to higher education and vocational training. While SLS has been the bread and butter segment for the company, the revenue share of other segments is inching up gradually. Though online and supplemental divisions are still in investment mode, these are expected to be profitable in 15-18 months. Balance sheet to be re-structured Educomp registered 89% CAGR (FY06-11) in revenues and 88% CAGR in PAT. However, it also saw a 38x increase in balance sheet size, primarily on account of capex in the K-12 segment. The company has debt to the extent of `9.8bn. This includes FCCBs to the tune of US$78.5m, due for conversion in Jul ’12 at `590 per share. These will have to be redeemed given the conversion price being way out of the money. The company plans to provide for the required refinancing through sale of stake in subsidiaries/ECB funding and internal accruals. Valuation We expect the FDEPS to rise from `34.7 in FY11 to `55 in FY14e. At the current price of `200, the stock trades at PE of 4.5x and 3.6x FY13e and FY14e earnings, respectively. We derive a price target of `260, based on the target PE of 6x its FY13e EPS of `44.5. FCCB worth US$78.5m due for redemption in July 2012 at a conversion price of `590
    • 29 December 2011 Educomp – High competition in SLS, stretched balance sheet; Hold Anand Rathi Research 74 Risks  Financial risk: repayment of FCCBs and other loans. In case Educomp is not able to repay the FCCBs and other loans on time, the company will take a battering.  Execution risk. Despite a strong performance in the past years, going forward Educomp faces inherent risk in its performance due to the scaling up of operations. Other business segments have also grown sizeably and as some segments have a 90-95% franchisee model, managing quality may be an issue.  Regulatory risk for formal education. Any changes in regulatory norms on the formal education front may significantly impact the investment made in formal education by the company. Fig 7 – Forward PE band 14x 17x 20x 23x 26x 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Jan-06 Jul-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Nov-10 May-11 Dec-11 Educomp Source: Bloomberg, Anand Rathi Research Fig 8 – Forward PBV band 1.0x 1.5x 2.0x 3.0x 2.5x 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Jan-06 Jul-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Nov-10 May-11 Dec-11 Educomp Source: Bloomberg, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Educomp – High competition in SLS, stretched balance sheet; Hold Anand Rathi Research 75 SLS – boom or bust? The SLS segment, which accounts for 73% of Educomp’s FY11 revenue, is expected to see slower growth than other subsidiaries. This is primarily due to the increased competition in the Smartclass segment (part of SLS), which could restrict realization per classroom, and the selective bidding approach of management in the low- margin Information and Communication Technology (ICT) business. Further, we are not too bullish on the company’s securitization model. Smartclass: Increasing competition Educomp was an early entrant in the multimedia course content in the schools space, with its successful product Smartclass. Educomp’s private schools portfolio grew over 10 times in FY06-11. We believe this is evidence of the increasing adoption of Smartclass in schools following its aggressive sales strategy. However, the success of Smartclass has prompted competition to scale up operations. Over six players have entered this segment and are in direct competition to Educomp. Further, our discussion with various schools indicates that many schools are now investing in hardware on their own and are offering extra perks both monetary as well as non-monetary to teachers in order to create digital content in-house. The in-house content is unlikely to be on a par with what Educomp or other players have to offer. Yet, being proprietary, it can be upgraded at regular intervals and used in all classes – paid content is currently used for only select classes. Fig 9 – Company-wise rate per class for ICT in private schools (`) Company Product Price per class room/ per month Educomp Smartclass 10,000 Mexus Education IKEN 5,000 Next Education TeachNext 6,500 Pearson / Edurite DigiClass 5,000 HCL Digischool 5,000 Tata Interactive systems CLASSEDGE 8,800 Everonn iSchools 7,000 NIIT nGuru 8,000 Source: Anand Rathi Research Securitization – risky business Educomp’s implementation of Smartclass is on an almost automated mode, with minimum turnaround time as it has the required bandwith to meet the high demand. However, we are not too comfortable with the structure of the entire transaction. In order to augment growth and reduce the burden on its balance sheet, the company securitizes receivables in the Smartclass segment which has inherent risks due to attached contingencies. Liabilities may accrue despite the company’s well-defined agreements with schools and vendors (who provide the service for five years and collect the fees). Our reservations are based on the following:  Any default or delay in payment by schools may hamper the business model of vendors. Though the contract covers all aspects relating to services and payments, any legal action taken in case of defaults can lead to negative marketing for the Smartclass product among schools.
    • 29 December 2011 Educomp – High competition in SLS, stretched balance sheet; Hold Anand Rathi Research 76 This risk increases when schools have options of choosing similar products from competitors and, in some cases, at a lower price point.  The company has earlier provided corporate guarantees for the entire value (100%) of the contract. This is now reduced to 20% for newly signed securitized contracts. Though the company is trying to reduce its liability to zero, we believe the same will be difficult.  Local vendors could face margin pressure, going forward, as the number of classrooms increase year on year. This may result in higher maintenance cost for the company.  In a changing interest rate scenario, the vendor’s margins would also change as the contract between Educomp and vendor indicates a fixed interest rate.  Lastly, for every `100 collected from schools, `25 is retained by the vendor to meet the obligation of interest payment to the bank, cost of servicing and maintenance and a `4 profit. Fig 10 – Securitisation model: cash flow for every `100 in revenue generated over 5yrs Provides education services Schools `20 each year for five years Total = 100` Local vendor (break-up of 100)` ` ` ` ` Pays 75 to Educomp. Of the remaining pays 13 as interest, 8 for opex and keeps 4 as profit Educomp (revenue recognition): ` ` 52.5 (hardware and license fee) in the 1st year and 22.5 in 2nd year Educomp acquires the school but leaves implementation and cash flows to local vendor Banks Educomp sells hardware and content to local vendor Vendor pays back 67 = 54 (principal) + 13 (interest) over 4 years. ` ` ` Cash flow for Educomp ` ` ` ` year 1 4.2 from year 2 to year 5. Total = 75 58.2 ( 54+4.2) in Banks securitize the receivables and pays 54 in 1st year` Flow of cash Flow of services Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Note: Figures above rebased for classroom price of `100 Fig 11 – Increase in no. of schools using Smartclass No. of schools / classrooms using Smartclass 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 No. of schools at the start of quarter 1,737 1,910 2,219 2,574 3,077 3,921 4,585 5,534 6,538 7,202 New schools added 173 309 355 503 844 664 949 1,004 664 905 No. of schools at end of quarter 1,910 2,219 2,574 3,077 3,921 4,585 5,534 6,538 7,202 8,107 New classrooms added 1,384 2,472 2,840 4,038 6,750 5,309 7,085 8,010 5,288 6,818 Source: Company
    • 29 December 2011 Educomp – High competition in SLS, stretched balance sheet; Hold Anand Rathi Research 77 Subsidiaries’ share in revenue rises School Learning Solutions (SLS) has been the bread and butter segment for Educomp from 2006-11. However, the efforts taken to grow other segments have now resulted in the share of revenue from subsidiaries increasing from 27% to 36.5% in the last six quarters. Apart from the pre-school and K-12 division, the other segments are still in investment mode and are expected to turn positive in the next 15-18 months. Large beneficiary of the growing education market We estimate private spend on education in India at US$45 bn in 2015, led by the rising spend on private schooling and higher education, as well as the increased proportion of private enterprise in government spend in the sector. Educomp is well positioned to benefit from the strong growth in private education through its scalable offerings in K-12 (primary and secondary education), multimedia content and the government sector. Fig 12 – Key segments and competitors Segments Educomp Presence Key competitors Multimedia Smartclass Mexus, Pearson, Everonn, NIIT ICT Edureach NIIT, Core Education, Everonn Pre-schools Eurokids, Little Millennium Treehouse, Kidzee, Shemrock K-12 Millennium, Takshila, Universal Academy, Le Mont High GEMS, Delhi Public School, Shemford Professional development Teacher Training Inspire Education Higher education Raffles JV Manipal, NIIT Vocational education Pearson JV NIIT, Aptech Online & supplemental Mathguru, WizIQ, VMC, Gateforum, Learnhub, Learning Hour, EduIgnite, EducompOnline, Study places Compass Box, CBSE Tutor, EducoSoft, eShikshak Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Dependence on SLS to reduce Back in 2006-2007, Educomp had realised the need to diversify from its bread and butter business of ICT/Smartclass. It launched various initiatives that included opening of brick and motor K-12 schools and pre- schools and entering niche segments in higher education. Fig 13 – Revenue break-up 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 FY10 FY11 FY12e Smart class revenue ICT revenue Pre school K-12 schools Higher learning solutions E-learning revenues (`m) Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Educomp – High competition in SLS, stretched balance sheet; Hold Anand Rathi Research 78 Fig 14 – Segmental performance FY09-11 Segmental performance (`m) FY09 FY10 FY11 Revenues School Learning Solutions (SLS) 4,322 8,068 10,095 Growth (%) 86.7 25.1 Higher Learning Solutions (HLS) 310 265 654 Growth (%) (14.5) 146.8 K-12 schools 621 997 1,357 Growth (%) 60.5 36.1 Online, supplementary and global 1,118 1,066 1,403 Growth (%) (4.7) 31.6 Total revenues 6,371 10,396 13,509 Growth (%) 63.2 29.9 Segmental EBIT School Learning Solutions (SLS) 2102 4503 5232.29 Growth (%) 114.2 16.2 Higher Learning Solutions (HLS) 92 -111 292.27 Growth (%) NA NA K-12 schools 274 322 476.56 Growth (%) 17.5 48.0 Online, supplementary and global 204 -157 -108.1 Growth (%) NA NA Total segmental EBIT 2,672 4,557 5,893 Growth (%) 70.5 29.3 Margins School Learning Solutions (SLS) 48.6 55.8 51.8 Higher Learning Solutions (HLS) 29.7 (41.9) 44.7 K-12 schools 44.1 32.3 35.1 Online, supplementary and global 18.2 (14.7) (7.7) Source: Company Pre-schools With over 800 pre-schools (EuroKids and Little Millennium), Educomp is one of the largest pre-school chain companies on a pan-India basis, and caters to ~50,000 students through both franchisees and its own centres. The company runs pre-schools under two separate brands: EuroKids, a 50:50 JV with pan-India K-12 player Euro School (595 pre-schools), and Little Millennium, its own brand, (233 pre-schools). It plans to build a network of 2,000 pre-schools (EuroKids and Little Millennium combined) in India over the next three years. K-12 schools Educomp currently operates 65 schools with 35,000+ students and is setting up 36 additional schools across the country. It has plans to set up 150 schools in the next few years. It operates under various formats – Greenfield (37schools); dry management / JV (12schools); EuroSchools (14 schools); acquired (two schools). The company has a wide portfolio of school brands catering to different segments and different geographies within the country. K-12: short-term pain / long-term gain The K-12 business is estimated to be highly profitable after the third year of operation. EBITDA at the school trust level is negative in the first year, registers breakeven in the second year and generates cash from the third year onwards – the amount depends on the type of school set-up. The company's business model is to charge 14.5% on capex incurred, which covers the 13% interest paid to the bank and a 1.5% margin. In addition,
    • 29 December 2011 Educomp – High competition in SLS, stretched balance sheet; Hold Anand Rathi Research 79 the company charges 4.5% of the revenue from the fourth year onwards as variable rent. In addition to lease rentals, the company also charges on a per student basis for content/intellectual property/curriculum/services. Fig 15 – K-12 portfolio Brand Details EuroKids Operates 595 pre-schools, most of these are franchised; has a 50:50 JV with EuroSchools Little Millennium 233 pre-schools, most of these are franchised The Millennium and Takshila schools K-12 schools in tier-I and tier-II cities Universal Academy / Vidya Prabhat Budget schools with a tuition fee of `800 per month Co-branded schools Co-branding with Padma Seshadri Bala Bhavan (PSBB) schools Source: Anand Rathi Research. Other segments picking up Educomp’s other segments include higher education, vocational training, professional development, online and supplemental. As can be seen from Fig 14, these segments are still in investment mode. However, they contribute ~18% of total revenue. As per management these segments will remain in investment mode for at least another 15-18 months. Company is looking at selling stake in few of these subsidiaries. Fig 16 – Higher education, online and supplemental offerings Brand Details Raffels JV Eight fashion design campuses in JV with Raffels Institute of Singapore LearningHour Premium tutoring services Mathguru Online math tutor & content portal WizIQ Internet learning platform to connect students and teachers Learnhub Social learning network Studyplaces Education portal for admission advisory services IndiaCan (Pearson JV) Catering to CA and civil services exam coaching, as well as other vocational courses in a tie-up with Pearson Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Educomp is looking to sell stake in few subsidiaries
    • 29 December 2011 Educomp – High competition in SLS, stretched balance sheet; Hold Anand Rathi Research 80 Stretched balance sheet Educomp’s balance sheet has stretched 38x over the last five years, largely due to the capex incurred (`5.2bn) in the K-12 segment in FY11 alone. However, the investment has borne fruit, with EBITDA margins of 65-75% in the K-12 segment between FY09-11. Key challenges for the company in the near future include FCCB refinancing and reduction of debt while maintaining the growth momentum. Balance sheet size grew ~38x in 5yrs ending FY11 Educomp has seen rapid growth in the last five years (FY06-FY11), with revenue at 89% CAGR, EBITDA at 82.6% CAGR and PAT at 88% CAGR. This has also led to expansion in balance sheet size from ~`1bn in FY06 to `38.5bn in FY11, largely due to the heavy capex (including acquisitions) of `29.4bn incurred during the same period, in order to built capacity for annuity-based models. These are expected to be cash cows and generate revenues for multiple years – ICT and Smartclass have 5-year contracts, whereas K-12 is estimated to generate revenues for at least 30 years. Fig 17 – FY06-FY11 capex, net block and asset turnover as per cash flow statement 0 7,000 14,000 21,000 28,000 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 0.00 0.75 1.50 2.25 3.00 CAPEX Net block Asset Turnover (RHS) (`m) (x) Source: Company K-12: the biggest cash guzzler A K-12 school requires capex of `100m to `1bn, depending on the location, infrastructure and the facilities provided. Fees charged to the students are in proportion to the capex incurred. However, a K-12 school requires at least 4-5 years to break-even and 8-9 years for payback. This impacts the balance sheet and dips the return ratios. However, on the flip side it also brings in assured annuity business with 35-45% EBITDA margins and assured business for 30-40years, with minimum maintenance capex (See Pg 24, Fig 32: “Unit level matrix for K-12 institutions from inception up to 12 years”.) Educomp intends to set up 150 K-12 schools under various formats – Greenfield (asset heavy), dry management and JV.
    • 29 December 2011 Educomp – High competition in SLS, stretched balance sheet; Hold Anand Rathi Research 81 Fig 18 – Segmental CAPEX for FY11 SLS 4% HLS 29% K-12 65% Online, Supplemental and global 2% Source: Company Though K-12 is currently denting the balance sheet, we believe it will boost revenue, PAT and return ratios, going ahead, due to the profitability of the segment. Fig 19 – K-12: segmental P/L for the last four quarters (`m) 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 Sales & services income 203 229 272 270 COGS 1 4 6 1 Personal exp. 21 29 29 30 Admin & other charges 25 43 41 41 EBITDA 156 153 196 198 EBITDA margin (%) 76.8 66.8 72.1 73.3 Other income 20 25 22 26 Finance charges 97 111 117 122 Depreciation 23 23 32 35 Preoperative exp. 0 - - Profit before tax (PBT) 56 44 69 67 Provision for tax 19 7 19 21 PAT 37 37 50 46 Margins (%) 18.2 16.2 18.4 17.0 Source: Company Debt burden taking a toll Educomp has leveraged its balance sheet in order to fund its expansion plans. It has loans of `9.8bn (FY11), including FCCBs of US$78.5m at a conversion price of `590 a share, due in July-12. These are way out of the money and will have to be redeemed on maturity. Pay out is estimated to the tune of US$96.5m. Nevertheless, Educomp has a manageable debt- equity ratio of 0.56:1 on a standalone basis, whereas the consolidated ratio stands at 0.84:1. However, when contingent liabilities are included, the same increases to 1.27:1 (1HFY12) and an interest-coverage ratio of 2.2 (FY12). Management intends to retire the debt through ECB borrowing, internal accruals and the sale of stake in segments such as online and supplemental, which are not core to the company.
    • 29 December 2011 Educomp – High competition in SLS, stretched balance sheet; Hold Anand Rathi Research 82 Fig 20 – Debt equity, interest coverage ratios Year-end: Mar FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e (Net debt) / cash (`m) (47) (844) (6,590) (2,560) (9,884) (11,372) (9,486) (9,486) Net cash (per share) (`) (0.6) (9.8) (76.2) (26.9) (104.0) (119.5) (99.7) (53.5) Net debt to equity (x) 0.04 0.29 1.71 0.16 0.45 0.47 0.35 0.16 Interest coverage ratio (x) 32.6 23.3 9.2 9.2 5.3 4.8 7.5 12.2 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Going ahead, the company has decided to reduce capex. Most assignments will be with a local partner who will invest in infrastructure, while Educomp runs the show.
    • 29 December 2011 Educomp – High competition in SLS, stretched balance sheet; Hold Anand Rathi Research 83 Fig 21 – Income statement (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Revenues 10,395 13,509 16,055 19,407 22,014 Growth (%) 63.2 30.0 18.8 20.9 13.4 Expenses 5,534 8,067 9,629 11,304 12,825 As % of revenue 53.2 59.7 60.0 58.2 58.3 Cost of goods sold 1,603 3,328 3,548 4,621 5,298 As % of revenue 15.4 24.6 22.1 23.8 24.1 Employee cost 1,793 2,560 3,193 3,292 3,739 As % of revenue 17.2 19.0 19.9 17.0 17.0 Other costs 2,138 2,179 2,888 3,391 3,789 As % of revenue 20.6 16.1 18.0 17.5 17.2 EBITDA 4,861 5,442 6,426 8,103 9,189 EBITDA margin (%) 46.8 40.3 40.0 41.8 41.7 Interest 539 962 1,113 962 695 Depreciation 1,142 841 1,105 1,502 1,627 Other income 1,255 461 41 634 910 As % of investments 5.8 1.8 0.3 7.7 13.0 PBT 4,435 4,100 4,250 6,273 7,778 Tax 1,584 678 1,304 2,036 2,524 Effective tax rate 35.7 16.5 30.7 32.5 32.5 PAT 2,851 3,422 2,945 4,237 5,254 PAT margin (%) 27.4 25.3 18.3 21.8 23.9 Minority Interest 57 127 Extra-ordinary expense 14 2 Reported PAT 2,779 3,294 2,945 4,237 5,254 Shares - as per BS (y/e) 95.0 95.5 95.1 95.1 95.1 Diluted shares 95.0 95.0 95.1 95.1 95.1 FDEPS 29.3 34.7 31.0 44.5 55.2 Growth (%) 89.0 18.5 (10.7) 43.9 24.0 Dividend 286 71 285 285 285 DPS 3.0 0.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 Dividend tax 47 (0) 49 49 49 Dividend payout (%) 11.7 2.1 11.3 7.9 6.4 Extra ordinary & prior period adjustments 20 (17) Transferred to reserves 2,427 3,241 2,611 3,904 4,920 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 22 – Balance sheet (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Equity 190 191 190 190 190 Reserves 16,289 21,593 24,206 27,214 32,228 Shareholders' funds 16,479 21,784 24,397 27,404 32,419 Debt 10,478 14,373 14,373 10,473 7,473 Minority interest 1,915 2,365 2,365 2,365 2,365 Capital employed 28,872 38,523 41,135 40,242 42,257 Fixed assets 16,687 26,305 27,774 28,031 28,495 Investments 354 64 64 64 64 Deferred tax assets (22) (144) (144) (144) (144) Cash 7,887 4,489 3,001 987 2,385 Working capital 3,966 7,810 10,440 11,304 11,458 Capital employed 28,872 38,523 41,135 40,242 42,257 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Educomp – High competition in SLS, stretched balance sheet; Hold Anand Rathi Research 84 Fig 23 – Cash flow statement (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e PAT 2,793 3,296 2,945 4,237 5,254 + non-cash expense 725 963 1,105 1,502 1,627 Cash profit 3,519 4,259 4,050 5,739 6,881 - Increase/(decrease) in working capital 1,965 3,844 2,630 864 153 Operating cash flow 1,553 415 1,420 4,875 6,727 - Capex 8,478 10,459 2,574 1,758 2,091 Free cash flow (6,925) (10,044) (1,154) 3,116 4,636 + Equity raised 11,318 2,516 1 (896) 95 + Debt raised 1,583 3,895 - (3,900) (3,000) - Investments (375) (290) - - - - Dividend paid 333 71 334 334 334 - Misc. expense 34 (15) - - - Net change in cash 5,985 (3,398) (1,487) (2,014) 1,397 Opening cash 1,902 7,886 4,489 3,001 987 Closing cash 7,887 4,489 3,001 987 2,385 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 24 – Ratio analysis @ `200 Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Diluted shares (m) 95.0 95.0 95.1 95.1 95.1 FDEPS (`) 29.3 34.7 31.0 44.5 55.2 CEPS (`) 41.3 43.5 42.6 60.3 72.3 BV (`) 173.5 229.2 256.5 288.1 340.8 P/E (x) 6.8 5.8 6.5 4.5 3.6 P/C (x) 4.8 4.6 4.7 3.3 2.8 P/B (x) 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 DPS (`) 3.0 0.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 Dividend yield (%) 1.5 0.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 Dividend payout (%) 11.7 2.1 11.3 7.9 6.4 EV/Sales (x) 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 4.4 5.3 4.7 3.5 2.6 EBIT/Sales (x) 47.8 37.5 33.4 37.3 38.5 Sales/Avg.CE (x) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 Debt/Equity (x) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 ROCE (%) 23.5 15.0 13.5 17.8 20.5 Avg. CE/avg. equity (x) 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 PBT/EBIT (x) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 PAT/PBT (x) 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 ROE (%) 27.4 17.2 12.8 16.4 17.6 Net gearing (%) 13.6 45.1 46.4 34.4 15.5 Working capital turnover (days) 139.3 211.0 237.3 212.6 190.0 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Educomp – High competition in SLS, stretched balance sheet; Hold Anand Rathi Research 85 Company background & management Founded in 1994, Educomp, a diversified education solutions company, has more than 27 offices globally and caters to 15m+ students across over 26,000 educational institutes. Brief history and business Educomp Solutions Limited, founded in 1994, is a diversified education solutions provider and one of the largest education companies in India. Educomp Group reaches out to over 26,000 schools and 15 million learners and educators across the world. It has 27 offices worldwide including an office in Canada, 20 in India, two in Singapore, one in Sri Lanka, and three in the United States. In addition, the company operates through its various subsidiaries (including authorGEN, Threebrix eServices, Learning.com, USA, AsknLearn Pte Ltd, Singapore) and via its associates such as Savvica in Canada. The company intends to reach out to 20 million learners through products, services and solutions, and targets being amongst the top five education companies worldwide, by the end of 2012. Key management personnel Fig 25 – Management profile Key Person Designation Background Mr. Shantanu Prakash Chairman and MD One of the founder members of Educomp, he has been responsible for the overall operations and growth since the company’s inception in September 1994. Mr. Jagdish Prakash Director Previously worked as Chief Material Manager with Steel Authority of India, as a marketing and management consultant with various public sector undertakings and academic institutions. He is father of the company's chairman and founder, Shantanu Prakash. Mr. Gopal Jain Director Managing Director of Gaja Capital Partners, a private equity firm. Mr. Sankalp Srivastava Director Founder of Mark & Space, a Company engaged in the design & manufacture of micro-processor based telecom, power control & energy management systems. Mrs. Sangeeta Gulati CFO Over 14 years of experience in money market operations, raising funds, finance and accounting management. Source: Company
    • Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Disclosures and analyst certifications are located in Appendix 1 Anand Rathi Research India Equities Atul Thakkar +9122 66266724 atulthakkar@rathi.com Key financials (YE Mar) FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Sales (`m) 11,993 12,483 11,574 10,975 12,778 Net profit (`m) 702 922 2,781 1,013 1,262 Adj. EPS (`) 4.3 4.8 5.0 6.1 7.6 Growth (%) 0.7 12.8 4.9 21.9 24.6 PE (x) 8.7 7.7 7.4 6.0 4.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.2 5.8 3.6 3.3 2.6 P/BV (x) 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 RoE (%) 13.6 19.7 12.1 11.6 13.2 RoCE (%) 9.0 8.1 7.7 7.6 10.0 Dividend yield (%) 3.8 4.1 3.7 4.5 5.6 Net gearing (%) 68.0 56.3 (5.8) (9.9) (11.0) Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Education Initiating Coverage India I Equities 29 December 2011 NIIT ‘One NIIT World’ & ‘cloud campus’ to widen reach NIIT’s product consolidation within its Individual Learning Solutions (ILS) division, via One NIIT World and cloud computing, is expected to drive revenues. We expect the sale of Element-K to improve margins and strengthen NIIT’s balance sheet. Further, the School Learning Solutions division is seeing rapid growth. We initiate coverage on NIIT with a Buy rating and a price target of `52.  Consolidating product range. NIIT is consolidating its product range within its ILS division under its ‘One NIIT World’ and cloud-computing strategies. Under this, each center provides all the courses NIIT offers, thereby increasing its reach. As per requirement, the company will transmit lectures 24/7 from central locations via cloud computing. We expect this to enhance margins and estimate 20% revenue CAGR over FY11-FY14e.  Element-K exit. NIIT has sold Element-K (acquired for US$35m in FY06) for US$110m. Element-K’s FY11 share of revenue was US$86m, but its margin was a low single digit. After this exit, NIIT intends to retire debt of ~`2.5bn. Margins in its Corporate Learning Solutions division are estimated to improve 120bps in FY12e, but revenue is likely to drop 29%.  School Learning Solutions. NIIT is easing out of ICT training in government schools, as bidders are required to be L1-compliant, 60-65% of the contract value is low-margin hardware cost, and payments occur within 180 to 250 days. NIIT now bids only for tenders where it sees 17-18% IRR. This scaling down is offset with nGuru, which provides multimedia content and sets up labs in private schools. We expect this to emerge as a commodity.  Valuation. We derive our price target through a sum-of-parts method. We use EV/EBITDA to value the individual businesses and add `7 for the 25% stake in NIIT Tech (assuming a 40% holding company discount). Risks: execution delays due to government processes; global economic risk. Rating: Buy Target Price: `52 Share Price: `37 Relative price performance NIIT Sensex 35 40 45 50 55 60 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Source: Bloomberg Key data NIIT IN / NIIT.BO 52-week high / low `61 / `41 Sensex / Nifty 15971 / 4779 3-m average volume US$0.2m Market cap `6.1bn / US$117.5m Shares outstanding 165.1m Shareholding pattern (%) Sep ’11 Jun ’11 Mar ’11 Promoters 33.96 33.96 33.96 - of which, pledged - - - Free float 66.04 66.04 66.04 - Foreign institutions 28.48 28.35 0.37 - Domestic institutions 10.35 10.40 38.41 - Public 27.21 27.29 27.26
    • 29 December 2011 NIIT – ‘One NIIT World’ & ‘cloud campus’ to widen reach Anand Rathi Research 87 Quick Glance – Financials and Valuations Fig 1 – Income statement (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Net revenues 11,993 12,483 11,574 10,975 12,778 Revenue growth (%) 4.4 4.1 (7.3) (5.2) 16.4 - Op. expenses 10,464 10,906 10,041 9,411 10,861 EBIDTA 1,529 1,576 1,534 1,564 1,917 EBITDA margin (%) 12.7 12.6 13.3 14.3 15.0 - Interest expenses 333 337 219 108 108 - Depreciation 751 854 846 844 904 + Other income 43 30 33 44 74 - Tax 108 76 134 193 272 Effective tax rate (%) 22.2 18.3 26.7 29.4 27.8 Reported PAT 380 339 368 463 706 +/- Extraordinary items - (130) 1,950 - - +/- Minority interest 287 438 448 535 541 Adjusted PAT 702 922 2,781 1,013 1,262 Adj. FDEPS (`/share) 4.3 4.8 5.0 6.1 7.6 Adj. FDEPS growth (%) 0.7 12.8 4.9 21.9 24.6 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 3 – Cash-flow statement (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e PAT 702 922 2,781 1,013 1,262 + Non-cash items 798 845 846 844 904 Cash profit 1,500 1,767 3,627 1,857 2,166 - Incr./(decr.) in WC 1,184 (200) 554 (13) 421 Operating cash-flow 316 1,967 3,072 1,870 1,745 - Capex 385 912 (1,250) 600 600 Free-cash-flow (69) 1,055 4,322 1,270 1,145 - Dividend 270 288 261 318 396 + Equity raised (148) (103) (7) (7) (7) + Debt raised 565 (387) (2,458) - - - Investments 208 367 455 543 549 - Misc. items - - - - - Net cash-flow (132) (90) 1,140 402 193 + Op. cash & bank bal. 748 616 526 1,667 2,069 Cl. cash & bank bal. 616 526 1,667 2,069 2,261 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 5 – Valuation chart (EV/EBITDA) 1.0x 4.5x 8.0x 15.0x 11.5x 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 NIIT Source: Bloomberg, Anand Rathi Research Fig 2 – Balance sheet (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Share capital 330 330 330 330 330 Reserves & surplus 4,712 5,235 7,755 8,450 9,316 Net worth 5,042 5,565 8,085 8,780 9,646 Minority interest 22 30 22 15 7 Total debt 4,046 3,658 1,200 1,200 1,200 Def. tax liab. (net) (298) (307) (307) (307) (307) Capital employed 8,812 8,946 9,001 9,688 10,547 Net fixed assets 5,364 5,422 3,326 3,082 2,777 Investments 1,274 1,641 2,096 2,639 3,188 - of which, liquid 5 110 110 110 110 Net working capital 1,558 1,357 1,912 1,899 2,321 Cash and bank balance 616 526 1,667 2,069 2,261 Capital deployed 8,812 8,946 9,001 9,688 10,547 Net debt 3,425 3,022 (577) (979) (1,172) WC days 47 40 60 63 66 Book value (`/sh) 30.5 33.7 49.0 53.2 58.4 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 4 – Ratio analysis @ `37 Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e CEPS (`/share) 8.8 10.0 10.2 11.2 13.1 Cash/(debt)(`/share) (20.7) (18.3) 3.5 5.9 7.1 P/E (x) 8.7 7.7 7.4 6.0 4.8 P/B (x) 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 P/C (x) 4.2 3.7 3.6 3.3 2.8 EV/sales (x) 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.2 5.8 3.6 3.3 2.6 EBIT/sales (%) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Sales/average CE (x) 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 Adj.RoCE (%) 9.0 8.1 7.7 7.6 10.0 Avg. CE/ avg. eq. (x) 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.1 PBT/EBIT (x) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 PAT/PBT (x) 1.4 2.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 Adj.RoE (%) 13.6 19.7 12.1 11.6 13.2 Dividend yield (%) 3.8 4.1 3.7 4.5 5.6 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 6 – Revenue Break-up 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e ILS SLS CLS (`m) Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 NIIT – ‘One NIIT World’ & ‘cloud campus’ to widen reach Anand Rathi Research 88 Investment argument and valuation NIIT’s “One NIIT World” and “cloud computing campus” strategy to consolidate its product offerings within Individual Learning Solutions (ILS) is expected to drive revenues through cost rationalization and a widening reach. We expect the sale of the low- margin Element-K business to reverse the downtrend in revenue in the Corporate Learning Solutions division and turn the company net cash positive. NIIT is increasingly selective in bidding for tenders for ICT training in government schools, looking only at an internal rate of return (IRR) of 17-18%. We initiate coverage with a Buy rating and a target price of `52. ILS: consolidation phase NIIT’s move to introduce ‘One NIIT World’ and its ‘cloud computing campus’ strategy in Individual Learning Solutions (ILS) are expected to drive revenue growth. With the new strategy, it intends to rationalize costs (stationery, laboratories, instructors), and at the same time widen its reach. Each center under One NIIT World will provide all the courses that NIIT has to offer. This is a positive step towards expanding its footprint and widening its margins. We expect 20% CAGR in revenue over FY11-14. Exiting the non-performing Element-K In an all-cash deal of US$110m, NIIT sold off Element-K (a part of the CLS division), which it had acquired in Aug ’06, for US$35m (FY11 revenue: US$86m; EBITDA margin: 7-8%). With the exit, we expect CLS to contribute as little as ~19% to revenue, most of it non-US. Earlier, with the acquisition of Element-K, CLS had contributed 40-45% of NIIT’s revenue, between 2009 to 2011. Of this, at least two-thirds stemmed from the mature US market, which of late has not been doing well. As a result, CLS had seen a mere 5.1% revenue CAGR between FY07-FY11. With the exit of Element-K, we expect faster revenue growth in the Corporate Learning Solutions (CLS) business (Element-K accounted for two-thirds of CLS’ FY11 sales). Further, the sale would help reduce associated debt and interest cost. Through this deal the company is expected to turn net-cash positive. School Learning Solutions ICT training in government schools is slowly falling out of favour with NIIT due to high debtor days and low margins. NIIT is turning selective on this side of the business, bidding for tenders only where it can see 17- 18% IRR. As this is proving difficult, NIIT is scaling down. However, this is compensated for by nGuru, which provides multimedia content and sets up labs in private schools. We believe that, though both ICT and multimedia are important segments, they will slowly become commoditised and see margins shrink as more players enter. JV with NSDC Skill-building Solutions is a new business vertical for the company, and is a 90:10 joint venture with NSDC (The National Skills Development Corp.). This public-private partnership aims to set up 1,500 centers in 1,000 cities. The NSDC will provide loans at a concessional 7.5%, with an interest
    • 29 December 2011 NIIT – ‘One NIIT World’ & ‘cloud campus’ to widen reach Anand Rathi Research 89 holiday period for the first four years, to train 7m students over a 10-year period. In 2QFY12, the company had net revenue of `1m, with loss at the EBITDA level of `13m. Valuation We initiate coverage on NIIT with a Buy rating and a target price of `52. Our price target has been arrived at through a sum-of-parts method. We use EV/EBITDA to value individual businesses and add `7 for the 25% stake in NIIT Tech (assuming a 40% holding company discount). At our target price, the stock would trade at 8.5x FY13e FDEPS of `6.1. Risks  Dependent on government policies. NIIT’s business in the ICT segment comes from government schools and colleges. Hence, it greatly depends on government funding, regulations and policies.  Macro-economic risk. Corporate training is under discretionary expenditure; a prolonged economic slowdown would hurt this business. Fig 7 – Sum-of-parts-based price target ILS FY13e EBITDA (`m) 1,211 EV/EBITDA (X) 5.0 EV (`m) 6,054 Best segment for NIIT, with FY13e EBITDA margins of ~18%. However, factoring in macro- economic concerns, the target multiple has been kept at 5x. SLS FY13e EBITDA (`m) 221 EV/EBITDA (X) 2.0 EV (`m) 441 Slowly becoming a commodity segment; high debtor days in government orders. Hence the multiple is at a discount to ILS. CLS FY13e EBITDA (`m) 218 EV/EBITDA (X) 2.0 EV (`m) 437 On selling Element-K, profits are expected to improve. However, this segment will see revenues drop by two-thirds following the sale. Total Total EV 6,932 Net debt (`m) (577) Equity value (`m) 7,509 Per share value (`) (A) 45 NIIT Tech stake value Avg share price of last 12 months 197 No. of shares (No. m) 59.3 M.Cap (`m) 11,697 Holding company discount 40% Net value (`m) 4,679 NIIT Holding 24.4% Value of the investment for NIIT (`m) 1,143 Value per share of NIIT (`) (B) 7 Target price for NIIT (`) (A+B) 52 Source: Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 NIIT – ‘One NIIT World’ & ‘cloud campus’ to widen reach Anand Rathi Research 90 ILS: consolidating its product range NIIT is consolidating its product range within Individual Learning Solutions (ILS) under its ‘One NIIT World’ and cloud computing campus strategies. We expect this to broaden its reach, thereby increasing revenue and widening margins. We estimate 20% CAGR in revenue over FY11-FY14e. However, investment in its cloud campus should affect FY12e margins. One NIIT World/Cloud Computing Campus gains traction NIIT is seeing traction and enhanced brand equity with its ‘One NIIT World’ strategy in the ILS. Further, it has started providing courses through its cloud-computing platform. The company expects One NIIT World and cloud computing to be key growth drivers in the ILS segment. Under this strategy, NIIT offers all its courses at each center. Further, using cloud computing, it offers courses 24 x 7. Rationalizing costs and increasing margins With the new strategy, the company intends to rationalize cost (stationery, laboratories, instructors), and at the same time widen its reach. Each center under One NIIT World provides all the courses that NIIT has to offer. In case of non-availability of a local talent pool for a course, the company will use cloud computing and transmit lectures from central locations. Further, all students are provided with net-books and data cards. Hence, they can access classes from anywhere and finish assignments at home. This helps reduce the cost of maintaining labs at all locations. With all courses offered at each center, NIIT increases its points of presence. We believe this is a positive step taken by the management to expand its footprint and widen margins. However, the investments involved in creating a cloud platform should impact FY12e margins. We expect 20% CAGR in revenue over FY11-14e. Fig 8 – ILS: Revenue & margin break-up (`m) Year-end: Mar FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Net revenues 2,471 3,396 7,863 4,275 4,681 5,765 6,918 8,088 Growth (%) 37.4 131.5 (45.6) 9.5 23.2 20.0 16.9 Operating expenses 2,037 2,761 6,838 3,289 3,621 4,775 5,707 6,641 EBITDA 434 635 1,025 986 1,060 989 1,211 1,447 EBITDA margin (%) 17.6 18.7 13.0 23.1 22.6 17.2 17.5 17.9 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 NIIT – ‘One NIIT World’ & ‘cloud campus’ to widen reach Anand Rathi Research 91 Element-K exit: strong move NIIT has sold, for US$110m, the Element-K business it had acquired for US$35m in FY06. Element-K’s FY11 share of revenue was US$86m. However, its margin was at a low single digit. After this exit, NIIT intends to retire debt of ~`2.5bn. Margins in the Corporate Learning Solutions division are estimated to improve 120bps in FY12, though revenue could drop 29%. Element-K drag on CLS growth In Aug ’06, NIIT acquired Element-K for US$35m (revenue: US$80m, EBITDA margin: 7-8%). In the last five years (FY07-FY11) Element-K had low margins and had clocked a mere 1.5% revenue CAGR (revenue at time of exit: US$86m). Overall, CLS had seen 5.1% CAGR, with EBITDA margin of ~8%. Due to the exit of Element-K, we expect a dip in the CLS business (Element-K constitutes ~67% of FY11 CLS sales) in FY12e and FY13e, followed by a spurt in FY14e. Fig 9 – CLS revenue , EBITDA and margins (`m) Year-end: Mar FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Net revenues 4,560 5,508 5,789 5,422 5,836 4,157 2,120 2,428 Growth (%) 20.8 5.1 (6.3) 7.6 (28.8) (49.0) 14.5 Operating expenses 4,206 5,242 5,605 4,985 5,364 3,773 1,901 2,161 EBITDA 354 266 184 437 472 385 218 267 EBITDA margin (%) 7.8 4.8 3.2 8.1 8.1 9.3 10.3 11.0 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Business to tilt towards India Following the acquisition of Element-K, CLS brought in 45-50% of NIIT’s revenues. Of this, at least two-thirds stemmed from the mature US market, which has been seeing slow growth in discretionary spending such as corporate training, since FY08, due to the macro-economic slowdown. This has played a major role in slowing growth for NIIT as a whole. With the exit of Element-K, we expect the trend to be reversed, with CLS’s contribution estimated at only ~19% (FY13e) of revenue, most of this from non-US sources. Fig 10 – Revenue shifting away from low-margin CLS Year-end: Mar (%) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e ILS 31 34 52 37 39 50 63 63 SLS 11 10 9 17 12 14 18 18 CLS 58 56 39 46 49 36 19 19 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Balance sheet to improve The sale of Element-K brought in US$110m to NIIT, This would largely be utilized to retire debt; which should help NIIT improve its balance sheet and lower interest costs. At end-2QFY12, the company had loans of `3.52bn. Management expects to repay `2.42m in debt, which should turn the company net cash positive.
    • 29 December 2011 NIIT – ‘One NIIT World’ & ‘cloud campus’ to widen reach Anand Rathi Research 92 Fig 11 – Element-K: exit value Element-K (US$m) Sale value 110 Cost of acquisition 35 Net gains 75 less tax (US - @ 40%) 30 Other allied cost 10 Net realization 35 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 NIIT – ‘One NIIT World’ & ‘cloud campus’ to widen reach Anand Rathi Research 93 SLS – emerging as a commodity? NIIT is easing out of ICT training in government schools, as bidders need to be L1-compliant, 60-65% of the contract value comprises low-margin hardware cost and with high debtor days of 180 to 250. NIIT now bids for tenders where it sees 17-18% IRR. With rising competition, margins in ICT/multi-media in schools are likely to shrink. Government business out of favour ICT training in government schools is falling out of favour with NIIT, as bidders are required to be L1-compliant, at least 60-65% of the contract value constitutes the low-margin hardware cost and payments by the government take as long as 180-250 days, which skews the balance sheet. NIIT now bids only for tenders where it can see an IRR of 17-18%. Currently, ~54% (2QFY12) of its revenue in the SLS segment arises from the ICT-led business. Fig 12 – SLS share of business from government and private schools 0 20 40 60 80 4Q07 2Q08 4Q08 2Q09 4Q09 2Q10 4Q10 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12Govt schools revenue share Private school revenue share (%) Source: Company nGuru gaining traction NIIT was a late entrant in the multimedia and content markets for schools. Penetration is low in this segment. The company now has the requisite sales force to grow this business and accelerate school additions per quarter to 80-100. The company claims to cover 10m students under this segment. Fig 13 – SLS: pending and fresh order-book position 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 2,600 3,200 3,800 4,400 5,000 Fresh order Intake Pending order book (RHS) (`m) (`m) Source: Company
    • 29 December 2011 NIIT – ‘One NIIT World’ & ‘cloud campus’ to widen reach Anand Rathi Research 94 Multimedia: commodity business ICT/multimedia in private schools, although an important segment for NIIT as well as for many others, is emerging as a commodity and is likely to see margins shrinking as more players enter.
    • 29 December 2011 NIIT – ‘One NIIT World’ & ‘cloud campus’ to widen reach Anand Rathi Research 95 Skill development with NSDC A 90:10 joint venture with the National Skill Development Corp. (NSDC), NIIT’s Skill-building Solutions division aims to set up 1,500 centers in 1,000 cities to train 7m students over 10 years. The NSDC will provide loans at a concessional 7.5%, with an interest holiday period for the first four years. Training 15m people: NIIT Yuva Jyoti Skill-building Solutions is a new business vertical for the company, and is a joint venture with NSDC in a ratio of 90:10. NSDC will provide loans at a concessional 7.5%, with an interest holiday period (for the first four years). The public-private partnership aims to set up 1,500 centers in 1,000 cities and train 7m students over a 10-year period. Further, NSDC will help create new markets to sell such services. NIIT will invest `900m and all income and expenses will reflect on NIIT’s books. The company intends to build 375 centers in the first three years. These centers will be in cities/towns of ~100,000 people. Hence, the centers will be of 2,500-3,000 sq. ft. each. In 2QFY12, the company touched net revenue of `1m, with net loss at the EBITDA level of `13m.
    • 29 December 2011 NIIT – ‘One NIIT World’ & ‘cloud campus’ to widen reach Anand Rathi Research 96 Financials We expect NIIT to register 5% revenue CAGR in the next three years (FY12-FY14). EBITDA margins are estimated to expand by 175bps chiefly on account of a change in business mix in favour of profitable segments/regions post the sale of Element-K. Revenue to see flat growth for FY12e-14e In the past three years (FY08-FY11), NIIT posted modest revenue CAGR of 7.4%, chiefly due to the drag in the CLS business due to Element-K. CLS has registered 1.9% CAGR while SLS (13.1%) and ILS (11.3%) have seen better growth. With the exit of Element-K, which brought in ~30% of NIIT’s FY11 revenue, we expect to see a 5.1% CAGR growth in FY12e-FY14e. Fig 14 – Revenue and revenue growth 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Revneue Growth (RHS) (`m) (%) Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research EBITDA margin to expand 175bps in FY14e We estimate EBITDA margin to expand by 175bps from FY11 to FY14. We expect the improvement due to: 1) consolidation in the ILS segment through cloud computing and One NIIT World, 2) lower proportion of revenue from government-related ICT business and, 3) exit from the low- margin Element-K business. Fig 15 – EBITDA and EBITDA margins 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e 9.0 10.5 12.0 13.5 15.0 16.5 EBITDA EBITDA margin (RHS) (`m) (%) Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 NIIT – ‘One NIIT World’ & ‘cloud campus’ to widen reach Anand Rathi Research 97 Working capital With a higher proportion of business coming from corporate solutions, NIIT has been witnessing low working-capital days. However, we expect this to change. Fig 16 – Working capital 0 600 1,200 1,800 2,400 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e 0 20 40 60 80 Working capital Working capital days (RHS) (`m) (days) Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Debt / cash per share Following the sale of Element-K, NIIT is expected to turn net-cash positive. Fig 17 – Debt-equity ratio, cash per share Year-end: Mar FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Net debt / cash (`m) (1,957) (1,238) (2,728) (3,425) (3,022) 577 979 1,172 Net cash (per share) (`) (99.1) (7.5) (16.5) (20.7) (18.3) 3.5 5.9 7.1 Net debt to equity (x) 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) Source: Company, Anand Rathi
    • 29 December 2011 NIIT – ‘One NIIT World’ & ‘cloud campus’ to widen reach Anand Rathi Research 98 Fig 18 – Income statement (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Revenues 11,993 12,483 11,574 10,975 12,778 Growth 4.4 4.1 (7.3) (5.2) 16.4 Expenses 10,464 10,906 10,041 9,411 10,861 As % of revenue 87.3 87.4 86.8 85.8 85.0 Personnel expenses 3,017 3,348 3,096 2,826 3,258 As % of revenue 25.2 26.8 26.8 25.8 25.5 Development production and execution 4,804 4,795 4,485 4,226 4,856 As % of revenue 40.1 38.4 38.8 38.5 38.0 Administration and other expenses 1,688 1,764 1,563 1,482 1,693 As % of revenue 14.1 14.1 13.5 13.5 13.3 Marketing 955 1,000 897 878 1,054 As % of revenue 8.0 8.0 7.8 8.0 8.3 EBITDA 1,529 1,576 1,534 1,564 1,917 EBITDA margin 12.7 12.6 13.3 14.3 15.0 Interest 333 337 219 108 108 Depreciation 751 854 846 844 904 Other income 43 30 33 44 74 As % of investments 6.9 4.6 1.9 2.0 3.1 PBT 488 415 503 656 978 Tax 108 76 134 193 272 Effective tax rate 22.2 18.3 26.7 29.4 27.8 PAT 380 339 368 463 706 PAT margin 3.2 2.7 3.2 4.2 5.5 Growth (6.3) (14.3) 17.1 32.6 30.9 Minority interest (17.6) (7.5) (7.5) (7.5) (7.5) Share of associates net profit 305 446 455 543 549 Other exceptional items - (130) 1,950 Extra-ordinary expense Reported PAT 702 922 2,781 1,013 1,262 Shares as per BS (y/e) 165.1 165.1 165.1 165.1 165.1 Diluted shares 165.1 165.1 165.1 165.1 165.1 FDEPS 4.3 5.6 16.8 6.1 7.6 Adj. FDEPS 4.3 4.8 5.0 6.1 7.6 Growth (%) 0.7 12.8 4.9 21.9 24.6 Dividend 231 248 224 274 341 DPS 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.7 2.1 Dividend tax 39 40 36 44 55 Dividend payout 32.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 Transferred to reserves 432 634 2,520 695 866 Source : Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 19 – Balance sheet (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Equity 330 330 330 330 330 Reserves (including warrants) 4,712 5,235 7,755 8,450 9,316 Shareholders' funds 5,042 5,565 8,085 8,780 9,646 Preference share capital - - - - - Debt 4,046 3,658 1,200 1,200 1,200 Minority interest 22 30 22 15 7 Capital employed 9,109 9,253 9,308 9,995 10,854 Fixed assets 5,364 5,422 3,326 3,082 2,777 Investments 1,274 1,641 2,096 2,639 3,188 Deferred tax assets 298 307 307 307 307 Cash 616 526 1,667 2,069 2,261 Working capital 1,558 1,357 1,912 1,899 2,321 Capital deployed 9,109 9,253 9,308 9,995 10,854 Source : Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 NIIT – ‘One NIIT World’ & ‘cloud campus’ to widen reach Anand Rathi Research 99 Fig 20 – Cash flow statement (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e PAT 702 922 2,781 1,013 1,262 + non-cash expense 798 845 846 844 904 Cash profit 1,500 1,767 3,627 1,857 2,166 - Increase/(decrease) in working capital 1,184 (200) 554 (13) 421 Operating cash flow 316 1,967 3,072 1,870 1,745 - Capex 385 912 (1,250) 600 600 Free cash flow (69) 1,055 4,322 1,270 1,145 + Equity raised (148) (103) (7) (7) (7) + Debt raised 565 (387) (2,458) - - - Investments 208 367 455 543 549 - Dividend paid 270 288 261 318 396 - Misc. expense - - - - - Net change in cash (132) (90) 1,140 402 193 Opening cash 748 616 526 1,667 2,069 Closing cash 616 526 1,667 2,069 2,261 Source : Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 21 – Ratio analysis @ `37 Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Diluted shares (m) 165.1 165.1 165.1 165.1 165.1 FDEPS (`) 4.3 5.6 16.8 6.1 7.6 Adj. FDEPS (`) 4.3 4.8 5.0 6.1 7.6 CEPS (`) 8.8 10.8 22.0 11.2 13.1 Adj. CEPS (`) 8.8 10.0 10.2 11.2 13.1 BV (`) 30.5 33.7 49.0 53.2 58.4 ABV (`) 30.5 33.7 49.0 53.2 58.4 P/E (x) 8.7 7.7 7.4 6.0 4.8 P/C (x) 4.2 3.7 3.6 3.3 2.8 P/B (x) 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 DPS (`) 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.7 2.1 Dividend yield (%) 3.8 4.1 3.7 4.5 5.6 Dividend payout (%) 32.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 EV/Sales (x) 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.2 5.8 3.6 3.3 2.6 EBIT/sales (x) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Sales/avg.CE (x) 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 Debt/equity (x) 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 ROCE (%) 9.0 8.1 7.7 7.6 10.0 Avg. CE/avg.equity (x) 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.1 PBT/EBIT (x) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 PAT/PBT (x) 1.4 2.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 ROE (%) 13.6 19.7 12.1 11.6 13.2 Net gearing (%) 68.0 56.3 (5.8) (9.9) (11.0) Working capital turnover (days) 47 40 60 63 66 Source : Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 NIIT – ‘One NIIT World’ & ‘cloud campus’ to widen reach Anand Rathi Research 100 Company background & management Set up in 1981 to help the nascent IT industry address its human resource challenges, NIIT, a leading global talent-development corporation, offers learning solutions to individuals, enterprises and institutions across 40 countries. It offers training solutions in IT, business process outsourcing, banking, finance and insurance, executive management education, and communication and professional life skills. Brief history and business A leading global talent-development corporation, NIIT builds up skilled manpower for the global industry. Set up in 1981 to help the nascent IT industry address its human resource challenges, it has today grown to be one of the world’s leading talent-development companies, and offers learning solutions to individuals, enterprises and institutions across 40 countries. Its training solutions in IT, business process outsourcing, banking, finance and insurance, executive management education, and communication and professional life skills reach 5m learners every year. Key management personnel Fig 22 – Management Key person Designation Background Rajendra S. Pawar Chairman & Co-founder NIIT group Member on the Prime Minister’s National Council on Skill Development; served on the Prime Minister’s National Task Force commissioned to develop India into an IT superpower; advisor to the Hunan province of China. Member of the International Business Council of the World Economic Forum. Vijay Thadani CEO, NIIT Co-founder of the NIIT Group; built an organization recognised for its visionary role in bringing the benefits of Information Technology, both as a professional skill and as a learning tool, to the masses. On the Board of NIIT Technologies. P. Rajendran Co-founder & COO Part of the core team that developed the organisation and brought it to its present position of international standing, since inception in 1981. Alumnus of the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi. Today, leads the people, infrastructure and technology initiatives and the school solutions business at NIIT. Source: Company
    • Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Disclosures and analyst certifications are located in Appendix 1 Anand Rathi Research India Equities Atul Thakkar +9122 66266724 atulthakkar@rathi.com Key financials (YE Mar) FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Sales (`m) 214 392 726 1,130 1,706 Net profit (`m) 26 92 181 304 479 EPS (`) 1.5 3.8 5.4 9.0 14.2 Growth (%) 338.4 156.5 40.1 68.0 57.6 PE (x) 112.6 43.9 31.3 18.6 11.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 80.9 34.6 15.1 9.6 6.1 P/BV (x) 4.2 3.3 2.1 1.9 1.6 RoE (%) 4.6 9.6 9.1 10.5 14.6 RoCE (%) 7.3 11.8 13.5 15.6 21.5 Dividend yield (%) - - - - - Net gearing (%) 0.9 13.1 (25.0) (23.9) (24.1) Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Education Initiating Coverage India I Equities 29 December 2011 Tree House Education & Accessories From pre-school to K-12 Despite the large expansion planned in its chain of 234 pre-schools and 16 K-12 schools, Tree House Education & Accessories (THEAL) has maintained its return ratios by not investing in real estate. We initiate coverage with a Buy rating and a DCF-based target price of `225.  Focus on self-operated pre-schools. Tree House has a chain of 234 pre-schools. Of these it runs ~68%. It plans to maintain the proportion of self-run pre-schools to those franchised at 65-70%. Most of its self- operated pre-schools are located in metros and tier-I cities; those franchised out are in small, more inaccessible towns.  Penetrating new markets. Tree House plans to invest `850m between FY12 and FY14 to open 240 new pre-schools, averaging `3.5m capex on each. It aims to roll out nation-wide operations and penetrating deeper into existing markets.  Forward integration with K-12. The company has revenue-sharing management contracts for 16 K-12 schools and intends to take up more such contracts for new and existing schools. However, it tries to avoid investing in real estate and prefers leases/JVs for new schools. The existing pre-schools in the area provide the feedstock for these K-12 schools. Ease of admission in K-12 helps increase pre-school volumes.  Valuation. Our DCF-based price target is `225. At our target price, the stock would trade at PE of 18x FY13e and 12x FY14e. Strong earnings growth and return ratios are expected to result in premium valuations. Risks: availability of skilled manpower; geographical concentration; regulatory risks for the K-12 segment. Rating: Buy Target Price: `225 Share Price: `168 Relative price performance THEAL Sensex 100 130 160 190 220 Aug-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Source: Bloomberg Key data THEAL IN / THEA.BO 52-week high / low `212 / `104 Sensex / Nifty 15971 / 4779 3-m average volume US$1.1m Market cap `5.7bn / US$109m Shares outstanding 33.71m Shareholding pattern (%) Sep’11 Aug ’11 Promoters 29.60 29.60 - of which, pledged - - Free float 70.40 70.40 - Foreign institutions 2.31 1.88 - Domestic institutions 7.87 37.36 - Public 60.22 31.16
    • 29 December 2011 Tree House Education and Accessories – From pre-school to K-12 Anand Rathi Research 102 Quick Glance – Financials and Valuations Fig 1 – Income statement (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Net revenues 214 392 726 1,130 1,706 Revenue growth (%) 108.2 83.6 84.9 55.7 51.0 - Op. expenses 144 223 395 615 920 EBIDTA 70 169 331 515 786 EBITDA margin (%) 32.8 43.1 45.6 45.6 46.1 - Interest expenses 6 12 42 20 14 - Depreciation 29 40 62 101 118 + Other income 5 19 44 60 61 - Tax 14 44 89 150 236 Effective tax rate (%) 35.2 32.5 33.0 33.0 33.0 Reported PAT 26 92 181 304 479 +/- Extraordinary items - - - - - +/- Minority interest - - - - - Adjusted PAT 26 92 181 304 479 Adj. FDEPS (`/share) 1.5 3.8 5.4 9.0 14.2 Adj. FDEPS growth (%) 338.4 156.5 40.1 68.0 57.6 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 3 – Cash-flow statement (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e PAT 26 92 181 304 479 +Non-cash items 32 54 62 101 118 Cash profit 58 146 243 405 597 - Incr./(Decr.) in WC 43 45 55 (10) 84 Operating cash-flow 15 101 188 415 513 -Capex 274 693 672 372 389 Free-cash-flow (259) (591) (484) 43 124 -Dividend - - - - - + Equity raised 232 437 1,328 (0) 0 + Debt raised 120 346 (286) (50) (50) -Investments 10 16 (26) - - -Misc. items - - - - - Net cash-flow 82 175 584 (7) 74 +Op. cash & bank bal. 22 103 279 863 856 Cl. cash & bank bal. 103 279 863 856 929 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 5 – Valuation chart (EV/EBITDA) 12x 14x 16x 20x 18x 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Tree House Source: Bloomberg, Anand Rathi Research Fig 2 – Balance sheet (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Share capital 174 240 337 337 337 Reserves & surplus 524 986 2,398 2,702 3,181 Net worth 698 1,226 2,735 3,039 3,518 Minority interest - - - - - Total debt 120 466 180 130 80 Def. tax liab. (net) 4 18 18 18 18 Capital employed 821 1,711 2,934 3,187 3,616 Net fixed assets 635 1,288 1,898 2,169 2,441 Investments 10 26 - - - - of which, liquid 10 26 - - - Net working capital 73 117 172 163 246 Cash and bank balance 103 279 863 856 929 Capital deployed 821 1,711 2,934 3,187 3,616 Net debt 6 161 (683) (725) (849) WC days 124 109 87 53 53 Book value (`/sh) 40.1 51.1 81.1 90.1 104.3 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 4 – Ratio analysis @ `168 Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e CEPS (`/share) 3.2 5.5 7.2 12.0 17.7 Cash / debt)(`/share) (0.4) (6.7) 20.2 21.5 25.2 P/E (x) 112.6 43.9 31.3 18.6 11.8 P/B (x) 4.2 3.3 2.1 1.9 1.6 P/C (x) 52.9 30.7 23.3 14.0 9.5 EV/sales (x) 26.6 14.9 6.9 4.4 2.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 80.9 34.6 15.1 9.6 6.1 EBIT/sales (%) 21.5 37.9 43.0 41.9 42.7 Sales/average CE (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 RoCE (%) 7.3 11.8 13.5 15.6 21.5 Avg. CE/ avg. eq. (x) 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 PBT/EBIT (x) 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 PAT/PBT (x) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 RoE (%) 4.6 9.6 9.1 10.5 14.6 Dividend yield (%) - - - - - Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 6 – Revenue Break-up 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Own Pre-schools Franchised K-12 & consulting (`m) Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Tree House Education and Accessories – From pre-school to K-12 Anand Rathi Research 103 Investment argument and valuation Despite the large expansion planned in its chain of 234 pre-schools and 16 K-12 schools, Tree House Education & Accessories has maintained its return ratios by not investing in real estate. We initiate coverage on the stock with a Buy rating and a DCF-based target price of `225. Self-operated pre-schools Tree House Education and Accessories operates a chain of 234 pre- schools, ~68% of them self-operated. It aims to maintain the ratio of own vs franchised at 65-70%. It plans to open self-operated pre-schools in metropolises and tier-I cities and keep the franchises (contracted for five years) for the smaller towns. Besides upfront franchisee fees of `0.4m- 2.5m, Tree House charges royalties of 10-25% of the tuition and admission fees generated by the franchisee. Fig 7 – Pre-school business model Tree-House pre-school business models Own Franchisee Capex ~`4m for furniture/fixtures and deposit ~`4m and franchisee fees of `400,000 to `2.5m Revenue of `6m-8m per unit based on `30,000-45,000 fees per student for a batch of 140-175 Annual royalty - 10-25% of franchisee revenues Unit-level EBITDA - 50-70% Unit-level EBITDA - 75-80% Source: Company Penetrating newer markets The company plans to invest `850m to open 240 pre-schools between FY12 and FY14 at an average of `3.5m capex a school. It is looking at a nation-wide roll-out and deeper penetration in existing markets. It has adopted an asset-light model so that the roll-out can be quicker and does not affect return ratios. Forward integration with K-12 The company has management contracts for 16 K-12 schools. It manages day-to-day operations on a fixed charge per student. It does not typically invest in real estate and finds local partners for infrastructure investment. The pre-schools in the area provide the feedstock for these K-12 schools and vice versa. Valuations Using DCF-based valuation methodology, we have derived a price target of `225. At this target price, the stock would trade at PE of 18x FY13e and 12x FY14e earnings. Strong earnings growth and better return ratios and business not exposed to regulatory risk should result in premium valuations.
    • 29 December 2011 Tree House Education and Accessories – From pre-school to K-12 Anand Rathi Research 104 Fig 8 – DCF-based valuation Year-end: Mar FY11 FY12 e FY13e FY14e FY15 e FY16 e FY17e FY18e FY19e FY20e FY21e FY22e FCFF Revenues (`m) 392 726 1,130 1,706 2,477 3,591 5,171 7,394 10,500 14,805 20,727 28,811 Growth (%) 83.6 84.9 55.7 51.0 45.2 45.0 44.0 43.0 42.0 41.0 40.0 39.0 EBITDA (`m) 169 331 515 786 1,166 1,654 2,330 3,258 4,522 6,228 8,512 11,543 Margins (%) 43.1 45.6 45.6 46.1 47.1 46.1 45.1 44.1 43.1 42.1 41.1 40.1 Depreciation/amortisation (`m) 40 62 101 118 137 181 208 245 296 368 467 602 Interest expenses (`m) 12 42 20 14 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Other income (`m) 19 44 60 61 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 PBT (`m) 136 270 453 715 1,115 1,560 2,210 3,101 4,313 5,947 8,132 11,029 Tax (`m) 44 89 150 236 368 515 729 1,023 1,423 1,962 2,684 3,640 PAT (before MI) (`m) 92 181 304 479 747 1,045 1,481 2,078 2,890 3,984 5,449 7,389 Add: depreciation (`m) 40 62 101 118 137 181 208 245 296 368 467 602 Add: interest*(1-tax rate) (`m) 8 28 14 9 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Cash profit (`m) 140 271 418 606 891 1,233 1,695 2,329 3,192 4,359 5,922 7,997 Increase/decrease in working capital (`m) 45 55 -10 84 -6 -43 87 122 170 236 324 443 Operating cash flow (`m) 95 216 428 522 897 1,276 1,608 2,207 3,022 4,123 5,597 7,554 Capex (`m) 693 672 372 389 435 371 527 741 1,035 1,435 1,974 2,695 FCFF (`m) -597 -456 56 133 462 905 1,081 1,466 1,987 2,688 3,623 4,860 Less: interest*(1-tax rate) (`m) 8 28 14 9 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 FCFE (`m) -606 -484 43 124 455 898 1,075 1,459 1,981 2,682 3,617 4,853 Year of discounting (number) - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Discounted FCFF (`m) -456 50 104 319 553 584 700 840 1,004 1,197 1,420 Discounted FCFE (`m) -484 38 96 311 541 571 683 816 974 1,157 1,368 Calculation WACC CMP (`) 168 Equity (market cap) (`m) 5,832 Cost of equity (%) Debt (`m) 466 225 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.5 15.5 Risk-free rate - Rf (%) 9.0 3 249 226 206 188 172 Rm - market return (%) 14.0 4 263 237 214 195 178 Beta (B) 0.9 5 280 250 225 203 184 Cost of equity (ke) (%) 13.5 6 304 268 238 214 193 Cost of debt (kd) (%) 12.0 Terminalgrowth(%) 7 339 292 256 227 203 Wd (%) 7.4 We (%) 92.6 WACC (%) 13.1 Growth rate (g) (%) 5.0 FCFF in 2024 (`m) 4,860 Terminal value of firm (`m) 4,803 Present value of terminal value(`m) 1,403 NPV of FCFF (`m) 5,718 Net debt (`m) -683 Intrinsic value (`m) 7,803 Outstanding shares (No. m) 35 Value per share (`) 225 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Tree House Education and Accessories – From pre-school to K-12 Anand Rathi Research 105 Risks  Geographical concentration. Most of the company’s operations are centered in Mumbai (over 115 of the centers it runs are in the city). Hence, any disruption in operations or competition would significantly cut into its overall operations. The company is aware of this and has entered new markets: Kolkata (20 centers), Nagpur, Ranchi and Guwahati.  Attrition. Attrition in the senior management/content/teaching team could hit the business. While senior members of the team already hold shares, management is keen to issue ESOPs to employees at lower levels as well.  Regulatory risk for formal education. Any changes in regulatory norms for formal education (K-12) may significantly impact earnings.
    • 29 December 2011 Tree House Education and Accessories – From pre-school to K-12 Anand Rathi Research 106 Self-operated pre-schools There are 234 pre-schools under Tree House brand in 35 cities, 158 (~68%) run by the company directly (in metros), the others (in smaller cities and towns) franchised out, normally for five years. Focused on self operations Under Tree House brand, the company has 234 pre-schools in 35 cities. Of these, it operates 158 (~68%), the rest are franchised out. The company is keen on maintaining the percentage of its owned schools at between 65- 70%. It opens self-operated pre-schools in metropolitan cities in India. This model helps it maintain and control quality, hygiene and safety. The company provides services like Mother Toddler classes, playschool, KG, summer camps, activity centers and teacher training. It operates on a low capex model of `3.5m-4m a unit. Fig 9 – Expansion plans for owned pre-schools Cities and areas No. of pre-schools planned Estimated area (sq. ft.) NCR 25 50,000 Kolkata 25 50,000 Mumbai 20 40,000 Pune 10 20,000 Hyderabad 10 20,000 Bangalore 10 20,000 Jaipur 5 10,000 Patna 5 10,000 Chandigarh 5 10,000 Kochi 5 10,000 Source: Company Tier-II cites to be tapped by franchisees Tree House is not keen on franchising out its schools and plans to retain major company-operated centers, though that would slow down its network growth. However, it is keen on working out franchises in smaller markets (tier-II/-III cites) where opening many centers may not be viable. Essentially, these are markets where even one or two centers would cover the entire town. Franchises are normally for five years, with upfront franchisee fees ranging from `0.4m to `2.5m, depending on the territory allocated. Tree House also charges royalties of 10-25% on all tuitions and admission fees related to pre-schools generated by a franchisee.
    • 29 December 2011 Tree House Education and Accessories – From pre-school to K-12 Anand Rathi Research 107 Fig 10 – Ratio of own centers to franchisees 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 103 Own centers Franchisees Own centers as a % of total (RHS) (Nos.) (%) Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Tree House Education and Accessories – From pre-school to K-12 Anand Rathi Research 108 From regional to national Concentrated in five states (Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh), Tree House intends to open a further 240 self-operated pre-schools across India by FY14e, at a cost of `850m, with its asset-light model. Expanding its regional footprint Currently, a regional player focused on five states (Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh), Tree House intends to open an additional 240 self-operated pre-schools on an all-India basis by FY14e. For this, it will deploy `850m. The estimated cost to establish a pre-school of an average 2,000 sq.ft. is `3.5m. Fig 11 – Estimated capex per center ` '000 Estimated cost Civil works 450 Electrical installations 150 Painting and polishing 300 Rental deposits 400 Furniture and fixtures 2,000 Air-conditioners 60 Computer & security systems 60 Professional fees 70 Total 3,490 Source: Company Asset-light model The company runs all its operations from centers taken on lease. It enters into agreements ranging from three to five years based on the following two models:  Leave-and-license agreements: Properties are taken on leave-and- license for three to five years. In addition, the school can enter into an amenities agreement with the property owner to provide such amenities as furniture, fixtures and fittings.  “Conducting” agreements: These are entered into between Tree House and the property owner. The company is responsible for day-to- day working and operations, and has the authority to decide on fees. The owner of the premises gets a percentage of gross fees in return for permitting Tree House to conduct, operate and manage a school on his premises. Eight of the self-operated pre-schools are run on “conducting agreements”, for five years. Such agreements provide the management with assurance for a longer duration of stay.
    • 29 December 2011 Tree House Education and Accessories – From pre-school to K-12 Anand Rathi Research 109 Forward integration via K-12 schools Tree House’s experience allows it upward integration into K-12 schools, through ‘managing’ contracts (day-to-day operations at a fixed per-student charge, without investing heavily in capex) by looking to local partners for investment in infrastructure. This helps it maintain its return ratios. Its pre-school student base is expected to provide feedstock for the K-12 schools. Making a foray into K-12 schools Tree House has entered into managing contracts with 16 K-12 schools. In these, it takes up day-to-day operations of a school at a fixed charge per student. It is not keen on investing heavily in capex and looks for local partners for investment in infrastructure. This, in turn, helps it maintain return ratios. Pre-school as feeder for the new business Tree House’s pre-school student base is expected to be a feeder for its K- 12 schools. Further, it plans to launch K-12 schools based on the availability of land in proximity to its present pre-schools. Fig 12 – K-12 schools and revenue 0 5 10 15 20 FY09 FY10 FY11 1HFY12 0 15 30 45 60 No. of K-12 Schools Revenue (RHS) (Nos.) (`m) Source: Company
    • 29 December 2011 Tree House Education and Accessories – From pre-school to K-12 Anand Rathi Research 110 Financials We expect Tree House, in the next three years (FY11-FY14e) to register 63% revenue CAGR, and EBITDA margin expansion of 298bps, chiefly due to the deeper penetration of pre-schools. The company is well funded. The pre-school business acts as a cash cow and also helps improve return ratios. Revenue CAGR of 63% over FY11-14e In the past three years (FY08-FY11), Tree House posted 93.5% revenue CAGR, on the back of 58% CAGR in the number of its own centers. As these centers hit optimum level and with the expected growth in the K-12 segment, in the next three years (FY11-14e), we expect the company to record 63% revenue CAGR. Fig 13 – Revenue and growth 0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1,800 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e 50 63 76 89 102 115 Revneue Growth (RHS) (`m) (%) Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research EBITDA margin to expand 298bps in FY14, from 43.1% in FY11 EBITDA margin jumped ~2,700bps between FY08 to FY11, following an increase in the penetration of centers and growth in the existing centers. We expect a further margin expansion of 298bps (FY11-FY14e) as most centers reach optimum utilization levels and due to the growth in revenues from the K-12 segment. Fig 14 – EBITDA and EBITDA margins 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e 15 19 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 EBITDA EBITDA margin (RHS) (`m) (%) Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Tree House Education and Accessories – From pre-school to K-12 Anand Rathi Research 111 Return ratios Tree House is well funded to meet its growth plans for the next two years. Further, with its asset-light policy, we believe its return ratios are set to improve. Fig 15 – Return ratios -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e ROE ROCE (%) Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Working capital Working capital has till now been skewed due to deposits for centers taken on rent. Working capital days excluding “loans and advances” are negative as fees are received in advance in most cases and payment of liabilities happens later. Fig 16 – Working capital -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e -25 0 25 50 75 100 125 Working capital Working capital days (RHS) (`m) (days) Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Tree House Education and Accessories – From pre-school to K-12 Anand Rathi Research 112 Fig 17 – Income statement (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Revenues 214 392 726 1,130 1,706 Growth (%) 108.2 83.6 84.9 55.7 51.0 Expenses 144 223 395 615 920 As % of revenue 67.2 56.9 54.4 54.4 53.9 Center operating exp 63 102 174 271 401 As % of revenue 29.5 26.0 24.0 24.0 23.5 Employee cost 29 49 91 141 214 As % of revenue 13.7 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 Other costs 51 72 130 202 306 As % of revenue 23.9 18.4 17.9 17.9 17.9 EBITDA 70 169 331 515 786 EBITDA margin (%) 32.8 43.1 45.6 45.6 46.1 Interest 6 12 42 20 14 Depreciation 29 40 62 101 118 Other income 5 19 44 60 61 As % of investments 14.7 18.3 15.0 13.9 13.6 PBT 40 136 270 453 715 Tax 14 44 89 150 236 Effective tax rate (%) 35.2 32.5 33.0 33.0 33.0 PAT 26 92 181 304 479 PAT margin (%) 12.2 23.4 24.9 26.9 28.1 PAT growth (%) 407.6 253.8 96.6 68.0 57.6 Reported PAT 26 92 181 304 479 Shares as per BS (y/e) (nos. m) 17.4 24.0 33.7 33.7 33.7 Diluted shares (nos. m) 17.4 24.0 33.7 33.7 33.7 FDEPS (`) 1.5 3.8 5.4 9.0 14.2 Growth (%) 338.4 156.5 40.1 68.0 57.6 Extra ordinary & prior period adjustments - - - - - Transferred to reserves 26 92 181 304 479 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 18 – Balance sheet (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Equity 174 240 337 337 337 Reserves (including warrants) 524 986 2,398 2,702 3,181 Shareholders' funds 698 1,226 2,735 3,039 3,518 Debt 120 466 180 130 80 Minority interest Capital employed 818 1,693 2,916 3,169 3,598 Fixed assets 635 1,288 1,898 2,169 2,441 Investments 10 26 - - - Deferred tax assets (4) (18) (18) (18) (18) Cash 103 279 863 856 929 Working capital 73 117 172 163 246 Capital deployed 818 1,693 2,916 3,169 3,598 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Tree House Education and Accessories – From pre-school to K-12 Anand Rathi Research 113 Fig 19 – Consolidated cash-flow (`m) Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e PAT 26 92 181 304 479 + non-cash expense 32 54 62 101 118 Cash profit 58 146 243 405 597 - Increase/(decrease) in working capital 43 45 55 (10) 84 Operating cash flow 15 101 188 415 513 - Capex 274 693 672 372 389 Free cash flow (259) (591) (484) 43 124 + Equity raised 232 437 1,328 (0) 0 + Debt raised 120 346 (286) (50) (50) - Investments 10 16 (26) - - - Dividend paid - - - - - - Misc. expense - - - - - Net change in cash 82 175 584 (7) 74 Opening cash 22 103 279 863 856 Closing cash 103 279 863 856 929 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 20 – Key ratios @ `168 Year-end: Mar FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14e Diluted shares (m) 17.4 24.0 33.7 33.7 33.7 FDEPS (`) 1.5 3.8 5.4 9.0 14.2 CEPS (`) 3.2 5.5 7.2 12.0 17.7 BV (`) 40.1 51.1 81.1 90.1 104.3 P/E (x) 112.6 43.9 31.3 18.6 11.8 P/C (x) 52.9 30.7 23.3 14.0 9.5 P/B (x) 4.2 3.3 2.1 1.9 1.6 EV/Sales (x) 27 15 7 4 3 EV/EBITDA (x) 81 35 15 10 6 EBIT/sales (x) 21.5 37.9 43.0 41.9 42.7 Sales/avg.CE (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 Debt/equity (x) 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 ROCE (%) 7.3 11.8 13.5 15.6 21.5 Avg. CE/avg. equity (x) 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 PBT/EBIT (x) 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 PAT/PBT (x) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 ROE (%) 4.6 9.6 9.1 10.5 14.6 Net gearing (%) 0.9 13.1 (25.0) (23.9) (24.1) Working capital turnover (days) 124 109 87 53 53 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
    • 29 December 2011 Tree House Education and Accessories – From pre-school to K-12 Anand Rathi Research 114 Company Background & Management Tree House operates the largest number (234) of self-operated pre- schools in India under its ‘Tree House’ brand, in 35 cities in India (largely in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh). It runs 149, the rest are run by franchisees, serving over 5,000 students, primarily between 1.5 to 6 years old. Brief history and business Tree House operates the largest number of self-operated pre-schools in India. Of these, 234 pre-schools are under the ‘Tree House’ brand in 35 cities (according to municipal limits) in India. Of these, it operates 149; the rest are handled by franchisees. On 31 Mar ’11, the self-operated pre- schools served more than 5,000 students, primarily in the age group of 1.5 to 6 years. The company's pre-schools are largely concentrated in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh. Key management personnel Fig 21 – Management Key person Designation Background Sanjay Kulkarni Chairman, Non-Executive & Independent Director Post-graduate diploma in Business Administration from the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad Rajesh Bhatia Managing Director BE in Computer Science from MS University, Baroda, and MBA in Marketing Management from Pune University. Approximately seven years’ experience in the education sector Vishal Shah Executive Director B.Com. from Mumbai University and MBA in Finance from Narsee Monjee Institute of Management Studies, Mumbai. Approximately six years’ experience in the education sector. With Apple Finance as trainee in 1994-1996. In 1996, joined Indsec Securities and Finance as assistant vice-president. Source: Company
    • Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Disclosures and analyst certifications are located in Appendix 1 Anand Rathi Research India Equities Key financials (YE Mar)* FY06 FY07 FY08 FY10** FY11 Sales (`m) 1,741 2,167 2,739 1,576 1,908 Net profit (`m) 162 220 577 (261) 429 EPS (`) 4.0 3.9 9.7 (4.8) 9.2 Growth (%) L2P (2.5) 146.4 P2L L2P PE (x) 18.7 19.1 7.8 (15.6) 8.1 PBV (x) 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.3 RoE (%) 15.3 13.7 28.1 NM 18.1 RoCE (%) 17.1 13.3 22.5 4.4 18.8 Dividend yield (%) - - - 1.3 3.3 Net gearing (%) (8.5) (32.2) (75.0) (7.8) (17.1) Source: Company * YE Dec till 2008 **FY10 is for 15months – ending March’10 Education India I Equities Atul Thakkar +9122 66266724 atulthakkar@rathi.com 29 December 2011 Aptech More multimedia than IT training Starting with IT training, Aptech today earns more revenue (over 50%) from non-IT courses. It has expanded to 33 countries through various business models.  Overview. Aptech started with IT training and has successfully moved up the value chain with courses in other segments such as multi-media, animation, VFX, aviation and hospitality, personality development and English. It has recently made a foray into training staff in the retail sector.  Geographic presence. It has over 1,250 centers (800 in India, 450 internationally) in 33 countries, and plans to further penetrate into developing countries. It is a leader in China, Vietnam and Nigeria.  Country-specific models. Aptech has country-specific models such as direct franchises (India and Nigeria), master franchises (Russia, Vietnam), limited investment (East Europe), joint ventures (Philippines) and owned (Malaysia), according to market potential.  Arena and MAAC contributes ~50% of revenue. On the acquisition of Arena Animation and MAAC, Aptech’s revenue has shifted from traditional IT training to other businesses. Arena Animation and MAAC provide ~50% of its revenue.  Length, breadth and depth strategy. The company intends to grow revenue by opening centers in cities with over 1m population and where it does not now operate (length); by offering new products where it already operates-countries/centers (breadth) and deeper penetration in existing countries (depth).  22.4% stake in China. Aptech has 22.4% stake in BJB Career Education Company Limited, holding company of Beida Jadebird IT Co. Ltd. and receives dividend of ~`300m p.a. Rating: Not Rated Target Price: `NA Share Price: `75 Relative price performance APTR Sensex 60 90 120 150 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Source: Bloomberg Key data APTR IN / APTA.BO 52-week high / low `148/ `69 Sensex / Nifty 15971 / 4779 3-m average volume US$1.3m Market cap `3.7bn / US$70.4m Shares outstanding 48.8m Shareholding pattern (%) Sep’11 Jun ’11 Mar ’11 Promoters 35.79 35.81 35.81 - of which, pledged 1.33 1.33 1.33 Free float 64.19 64.17 64.17 - Foreign institutions 8.42 8.35 8.39 - Domestic institutions 0.18 0.17 0.16 - Public 55.62 55.68 55.64
    • Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Disclosures and analyst certifications are located in Appendix 1 Anand Rathi Research India Equities Key financials (YE Mar) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Sales (`m) 2 39 84 521 1,218 Net profit (`m) 0 25 37 180 413 EPS (`) 0.2 9.0 3.1 15.0 26.5 Growth (%) (98.2) 4,968.3 (65.9) 386.8 76.8 PE (x) 247.1 4.9 14.3 2.9 1.7 PBV (x) 270.5 8.9 8.9 2.0 0.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 270.5 8.9 8.9 2.0 0.8 RoE (%) 1.7 63.9 18.2 44.1 39.4 RoCE (%) 6.2 66.9 23.4 55.4 50.3 Dividend yield (%) - - 2.3 6.8 6.9 Net gearing (%) 54.4 (28.2) (25.7) (7.6) (15.1) Source: Company Education India I Equities Atul Thakkar +9122 66266724 atulthakkar@rathi.com 29 December 2011 Edserv Focus on vocational skills, K-12, IIT-JEE, CA, and AIEEE Edserv offers coaching for competitive exams such as IIT-JEE, CA, and AIEEE as well as vocational skills training and online ERP solutions for schools. Its Vidhayana initiative offers technology, teacher training and operational assistance in K-12 schools.  Overview. Edserve offers a range of services including: integrated online content for and assessments of K-12 content, coaching for IIT-JEE, CA, AIEEE, among others, and other vocational skills, besides online ERP solutions for schools that automate the parents/student/ teacher ecosystem. It also offers content that can be accessed on mobile phones, and technology for classrooms. It has invested in 10 schools, providing technology, content and teacher training, etc.  Online content sold through different channels. Lampsglow is sold through distributors, who are given bulk content at a discount, in turn sold to smaller distributors and retailers, who finally sell Lampsglow credits to retail customers. The credit purchases are similar to buying pre- paid credits for cell phones. This strategy reduces expensive advertising costs in attracting customers directly to its website. Bulk login sales: usually sold to schools at a discount. Direct sales: students directly pay for content from the website. Lampsglow currently has ~200,000 registered users.  Vidhyadhana. The company invests in K-12 schools, provides technology, teacher training and operational assistance. Vidhyadhana pays royalties to promoters of the schools. The company provides technology for classrooms in schools and charges a monthly fee. It also has, for schools, a complete ERP tool that integrates school content, accounting programmes and logistics. Rating: Not Rated Target Price: NA Share Price: `44 Relative price performance EDSS Sensex 30 60 90 120 150 180 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Source: Bloomberg Key data EDSS IN / EDSE.BO 52-week high / low `183 / `39 Sensex / Nifty 15971 / 4779 3-m average volume US$0.4m Market cap `1.1bn / US$20.1bn Shares outstanding 23.7m Shareholding pattern (%) Sep’11 Jun ’11 Mar ’11 Promoters 15.59 23.75 24.52 - of which, pledged 15.27 7.15 7.54 Free float 52.41 76.25 75.48 - Foreign institutions 2.01 0.44 0.44 - Domestic institutions 2.05 3.16 3.14 - Public 48.35 35.56 36.58
    • Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Disclosures and analyst certifications are located in Appendix 1 Anand Rathi Research India Equities Key financials (YE Mar) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Sales (`m) 430 916 1,447 2,935 4,247 Net profit (`m) 41 138 221 720 1,136 EPS (`) 4.0 10.0 16.3 47.6 59.6 Growth (%) (82.9) 151.0 63.9 191.3 25.2 PE (x) 86.6 34.5 21.1 7.2 5.8 PBV (x) 8.4 4.7 2.3 1.9 1.2 RoE (%) 18.7 19.3 13.7 29.1 27.8 RoCE (%) 26.5 25.1 20.6 32.9 29.6 Dividend yield (%) - - - 0.6 0.7 Net gearing (%) 46.1 7.2 3.8 14.7 11.9 Source: Company Education India I Equities Atul Thakkar +9122 66266724 atulthakkar@rathi.com 29 December 2011 Everonn Education Stake sale to Varkey group will boost K-12 segment Everonn provides educational training through tie-ups with formal education institutions via VSAT. In addition, it has set-up its own 10 K- 12 schools and also has coaching centers to prepare students for various competitive tests. Recently the company sold 12% stake to the Varkey group by preferential allotment.  Virtual and Technology Enabled Learning Solutions [ViTELS] Everonn imparts lectures through satellite-based Very Small Aperture Terminal [VSAT] technology and has 1,455 private schools, 1,920 colleges and 59 retail centers at the end of FY11.  Toppers. A subsidiary of Everonn prepares aspirants for IIT-JEE, a joint entrance exam. Through a combination of classroom and VSAT sessions, the digitally enabled lecture platform allows the faculty to use audio video presentation tools to enhance the learning process.  K-12. Everonn started 10 schools during FY11 under two brands KenBridge Schools (for the CBSE board – 9 schools) and Winfinity World Schools (IB board – 1 school). Further, 20 new locations have been identified to start schools in the next academic year.  JV with NSDC. Everonn has entered into a JV with the Union government’s National Skill Development Corporation (NSDC). The JV is mandated to train 15m people in various technical streams over the next 10 years.  Stake sale to Varkey group. The company has sold 12% stake to the Varkey group (GEMS education) at `528 per share on preferential allotment basis. Further, the Varkey group has made an open offer for an additional 20% from the market at `528. Post this stake sale, the K-12 segment is expected to drive further growth for Everonn. Rating: Not Rated Target Price: NA Share Price: `344 Relative price performance EEDU Sensex 230 330 430 530 630 730 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Source: Bloomberg Key data EEDU IN / EVED.BO 52-week high / low `724 / `227 Sensex / Nifty 15971 / 4779 3-m average volume US$2.5m Market cap `6.6bn / US$127m Shares outstanding 19.2m Shareholding pattern (%) Sep’11 Jun ’11 Mar ’11 Promoters 42.28 42.29 42.67 - of which, pledged 24.02 25.68 24.08 Free float 57.72 57.71 57.33 - Foreign institutions 12.17 27.75 28.62 - Domestic institutions 0.73 1.42 5.35 - Public 44.82 28.54 23.36
    • Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Disclosures and analyst certifications are located in Appendix 1 Anand Rathi Research India Equities Key financials (YE Mar) 3QFY11 4QFY11 FY11* 1QFY12 2QFY12 Sales (`m) 98 142 439 154 125 EBITDA (`m) 4 1 24 (4) (56) EBITDA margin (%) 4.0 0.5 5.4 NM NM Finance expenses (`m) - - 1 - - Depreciation (`m) 2 3 8 4 8 Other income (`m) 3 4 11 1 1 PBT (`m) 5 1 25 (7) (62) Tax (`m) 1 1 7 (0) (1) Tax rate (%) 28.9 56.1 27.1 NM NM Adjusted PAT (`m) 3 1 19 (7) (61) FDEPS (`) 0.03 0.01 0.2 (0.05) (0.23) Source: Company * Annual Numbers are for consolidated entity; quarterly are for stand alone Education India I Equities Atul Thakkar +9122 66266724 atulthakkar@rathi.com 29 December 2011 ZEE Learn Pre-school helps make inroads into K-12 Zee Learn has a pan-India chain of pre-schools with over 95% branches franchised. It has also made a foray into K-12, and intends to open ~100 schools. In most cases, the local partners will invest in real-estate. Management contracts will be with ZEE.  Pre-school chain. Zee’s pre-school chain is run under the brand Kids Zee. It has 750 pre-schools, ~95% run by local franchisees. Zee provides content and teacher training, and incurs marketing / branding expenses.  Mount Litera Zee School. Zee intends to set up over 100 K-12 schools in the next 2-3 years under the brands Mount Litera Zee School and Mount Litera World School. These will target the middle-income group with fees of `20,000 to `70,000 p.a. based on location and services offered. It has its own schools and runs others on a management-contract basis. At present, 38 schools are operational.  Brain Café. Zee has tied up with Gakken Education Co. (Japan) to offer Brain Café science classes in India. This is an integrated eight-level concept-builder programme for students of Classes I to VIII. The programmes will supplement the regular curriculum and bring better understanding and appreciation of the world of science. This is different from the general digital content available in the market and improves understanding through activity-based, hands-on programmes. Brain Café charges `900-1,000 per student p.a. and is run in more than 100 schools.  ZICA / ZIMA. Zee also runs ZICA (Zee Institute of Creative Arts) and ZIMA (Zee Institute of Media Arts). It runs ZICA in 25 centres over 15 different cities. The company caters to ~3,000 students under the two streams. Rating: Not Rated Target Price: `NA Share Price: `13 Relative price performance ZLL Sensex 10 15 20 25 30 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Source: Bloomberg Key data ZLL IN / ZEEE.BO 52-week high / low `32.4 / `13 Sensex / Nifty 15971 / 4779 3-m average volume US$0.2m Market cap `3.3bn / US$62.7m Shares outstanding 262.7m Shareholding pattern (%) Sep’11 Jun ’11 Mar ’11 Promoters 73.19 42.62 42.62 - of which, pledged 0.70 - - Free float 26.81 57.38 57.38 - Foreign institutions 7.52 13.62 15.85 - Domestic institutions 4.94 10.60 12.56 - Public 14.35 33.16 28.97
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 119 Unlisted companies
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 120 4C Learning solutions SCORM-compliant e-learning Established in 2000, 4C-Learning Solutions Pvt. Ltd. is an e-learning service provider in southern India. Its services are tailored to address the requirements of e-learning organizations, companies, NGOs, K- 12s, colleges, universities and individual students.  Customized courses, the key. It provides customized courses for instructor-led training (ILT), web-based training (WBT) and computer-based training (CBT). It offers services in domains such as banking and financial services, manufacturing, retail, hospitality, information technology, etc. Its services extend to the K-12 segment, to corporate houses, NGOs, organizations worldwide and to individual students. It provides e-tutoring to students. Home assignments and tutoring help are provided.  Huge opportunity in e-learning. The benefit from its SARAS Virtual Learning Environment (VLE) is one of its major strengths. Significant benefits may come from the growing e-learning market, while technology may have an adverse affect on its strategic initiatives and growth prospects.  International and diversified client base. The company is one of the preferred outsourcing partners as it is internationally-standard- compliant. Its client base in countries such as the USA, Europe, Malaysia and Singapore offers benefits of geographic diversification.  SCORM and AICC compliant. 4C-Learning offers SCORM-related services to clients where design professionals extend services such as conversion of non-SCORM-compliant e-learning courses and older versions of CBT courses to SCORM-compliant e-learning courses. This unique feature of 4C-Learning gives it an edge over others. Aakash Educational Services Coaching for medical and engineering entrance exams Established in 1988, Aakash Educational Services is one of India’s largest coaching institutes for medical and engineering entrance exams. It currently serves more than 35,000 students annually. It has recently made a foray into providing coaching services for students of Std.VIII, IX and X.  Business verticals. AES is one of the oldest and largest in the field of coaching for medical and engineering exams. In 2008, it made a foray into providing coaching services for students of VIII, IX and X standards. Its entrance-exam divisions provide training and coaching to students preparing for competitive exams in medicine and engineering (IIT-JEE, AIEEE, etc.).  Services offered. It offers regular classroom courses, correspondence /distance learning, online courses and courses for NRIs. It also helps students through a national-level test series. Established in 1988 with
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 121 only six students, it currently serves more than 35,000 students annually. It also extends scholarships for its classroom and correspondence programmes.  Geographical presence and staff strength. It has 47 study centres in 14 states and runs more than 100 examination centres in India. It currently has an employee base of over 700 professionals.  Opportunities in new territories. The company does not have a huge presence in the western and southern regions of India, resulting in being unable to reap the benefits of market opportunities. Apple Kids Education (P) Ltd South-India focused; play-schools, day-care centres, K12 Operating in the bricks-and-mortar education sector and catering to schooling and other educational needs of children, Apple Kids’ services include play-schools and day-care centers for children of a year-and-a-half to six years. It runs over 150 pre-school centers and more than 25 K12 schools, mostly in South India. It has accreditation from Australia and New Zealand.  Southern strength. Apple Kids is the largest pre-school chain in Tamil Naidu and offers services from play-group to senior kindergarten catering to children one-and-a-half to six years old.  K-12 foray. It has ventured into the K-12 education segment with its Amazon International Schools brand, with more than 25 such schools all over India. A few of these are residential.  Franchisee model. It operates through a franchisee model in both the K-12 and pre-school segments. In the pre-school segment, it charges an initial franchisee fee of `0.6m, with royalties of ~30% on annual fees collected.  Affiliation. Apple Kids pre-schools have secured accreditation from Australia and New Zealand, while its Amazon International Schools are affiliated to the ICSE and CBSE Boards. Bafel Academy Language made easy The British Academy for the English Language operates as an English-language institute, engaged in providing spoken English and communication skills training to students, companies and even school teachers in India.  Broad service range. Bafel offers a range of courses such as spoken English, personality development, business writing, interview techniques, group discussion, voice and accent, BPO training (and spoken Hindi for foreigners) through specially-designed modules. It also provides training for IELTS and TOEFL.
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 122  Network spread. It has established 50 centres in nine states, with a presence in north India, which offers it huge scope for network expansion.  Proven record. Recognized as a major institute for English-language training, Bafel recently was awarded the ‘Best English Training Institute in Delhi’. This increases its popularity and attracts more trainees. It was recently awarded a contract to train the Delhi Metro staff as a huge number of foreign visitors were expected to attend the prestigious Commonwealth Games, 2010. Such projects improve its brand value.  Franchisee-led model. It operates through its own centres and franchisees. It has two categories of franchisees and fees range from `0.35m to `0.45m, with royalties of 18% on the annual fees collected. Billabong High International Schools Research-based training strategy Headquartered in Mumbai, Billabong High International Schools is an initiative of Kangaroo Kids Education, with 10 centres in India and an international presence through the Maldives. It is a co- educational institute and provides schooling services for kindergarten to secondary students.  K-12 foray. Billabong has ventured into the K-12 segment with the Billabong High International Schools brand. It has established 10 centres in India and an international centre in the Maldives.  Modern facilities and sound infrastructure. Billabong encourages external development by encouraging sports and performing activities, field trips, sports days, annual concerts and student councils. It provides facilities such as libraries, laboratories, computer centres, sick bays, canteens, assembly halls and AV centres.  Research-based training strategy. It has an R&D team of 65 experts, who shape a curriculum, incorporating theme-based elements, interdisciplinary learning and life-skills programmes.  Curriculum and associations. The schools offer a choice of boards, (ICSE, CBSE, IGCSE). Billabong is associated with a sister concern, Billanook College, Australia BM English-speaking institute Teaching English communication skills Established in 2004, BM English-speaking institute is an English communication-skills training institute. It caters to the development of soft skills along with courses that help people to enhance their confidence, public speaking, presentations, business English, e-mail drafting and group discussion skills.
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 123  Broad service range. The institute provides services under the soft- skills-development genre of its advanced English-speaking course. These include topics such as grammar, fluency, public speaking, group discussions, presentations, attitudes and e-mail drafting.  Network spread and business model. It has four centres (three in Mumbai, one in Thane), preparing people to start and run English- training centres anywhere in India. It trains those who want to start centres in various aspects of the business (the partner has to issue the BM English-speaking course certificate to participants who complete the course at the centre). Its fees are `0.1m plus service tax, including training charges and `10,000 as annual renewal fee after a year.  Strategic alliances. It has successful placement tie-ups with leading brands (Cafe Coffee Day, Sparsh Call Centre, Pantaloons, etc.) for jobs, helping individuals who are trained at the Institute build careers. Brilliant Tutorials A leading institute with a strong brand Established in 1987 as a computer training institute, Brilliant Tutorials is one of the leading institutes in the country, primarily offering coaching classes to students of Std. VIII onwards and for competitive entrance examinations for professional courses in engineering, medicine, management, banking and civil services.  Courses offered. BT provides coaching classes for school students (Std. VIII onwards) and those aspiring to engineering, management, medicine, banking and civil services. It has grown rapidly in providing entrance-examination training for the IIT-JEE, AIEEE – BITSAT, MBBS and MBA. Apart from conventional classroom and correspondence courses, it provides online test services, which cover a vast range of examinations.  Network spread. It is one of the leading institutes in the country and primarily operates in Delhi, UP, Haryana, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu through 28 centres in 10 states. It has a major presence in north and south India.  Business verticals. Its various divisions are Brilliant Tutorials (flagship institute with a chain of classroom centres), Firstware Software Solutions (IT segment offering internet/intranet solutions, e- biz & e-commerce solutions and client server application development), Brilliant’s School of Management (B-schools), Compu Gen (quality computer education to school students) and First Computers (focusing on advanced training in e-commerce, M- commerce and Enterprise Applications). Career Launcher Diversifying into the K-12 segment Starting with MBA (CAT) coaching, Career Launcher now offers students training for IIT-JEE, NLS, BBA, MCA exams and vocational training, along with career guidance to students aspiring
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 124 to study overseas. It has ventured into the K-12 segment with its launch of Indus World Schools.  All-India and international presence. It operates in more than 175 cities/towns with educational infrastructure of more than 225 learning centres. About 70% of its centres are franchised out. It also operates in the Middle East (U.A.E.), and plans to expand further there to benefit from the large NRI population.  Significant manpower. It has over 3,000 employees, of which around 65% are teacher, trainers and academicians.  Diversified revenue stream. It has diversified into K-12 schools (brand-named Indus World Schools), higher education (Indus World School of Business) and vocational training.  Private-equity backed. Gaja Capital invested in Career Launch in late 2007 for a minority stake. Ed Ventures e-Learning Web-based services Incorporated in 2004, Ed Ventures e-Learning specializes in web development, e-learning and web marketing. Its practice of following an individualized approach with its ability to integrate technologies helps it take care of a client’s business-process- outsourcing needs.  Unique product offerings. Apart from offering business solutions and services, Ed Ventures also provides customized products such as fleet manager and CRM admin for easy administrative functioning of client organizations. It has developed B2C sites to conduct online driving safety/traffic school courses. This gives it an edge over competitors.  Web marketing and training. Ed Ventures provides internet marketing services to rank sites for customer acquisition and less customer-retention costs. Its services include search-engine optimization, pay-per-click (PPC) engines campaigns, web analytics, competitor analysis, etc. It also provides a global environment for training in software development, quality testing and e-marketing, with exposure to real-time projects.  Qualified trainers. Ed Ventures has a team of qualified and trained professionals, who posses in-depth knowledge and a range of skills in domain, functional, product and technical expertise. Its strong expertise helps it provide customer-specific solutions, with 100% guarantees for its services. Edify School New entrant in the schools business Established in 2010, Edify School, a division of MDN Edify Education Pvt. Ltd. is ISO 9001: 2008 certified and provides schooling from kindergarten to Grade 12 students. Edify is a co-educational institute,
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 125 affiliated to the Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE).  K-12 foray. It is ISO 9001: 2008 certified and provides schooling from kindergarten to Grade 12 students. Edify is a co-educational institute, affiliated to the Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE). It provides facilities such as transport, catering, infrastructure, medicine and technology.  Network spread. It has established seven schools in some parts of southern and western India. Expanding its current network of schools to newer territories is a huge opportunity for it.  3C-teaching concept. Edify School has been able to devise a unique 3C-teaching method which helps students grow in both curricular and co-curricular activities. It ensures an ideal teacher-student ratio of 15:1 and tracks students’ performances online.  Franchisee-led model. It operates through its own centres and franchisees. Investment in franchisees ranges from `80m to `100m, with the schools spread over 3-5 acres. Agreements are renewed every ten years. FIITJEE Coaching / tuition services for science students Established in 1992 to provide coaching/tuition services to science students, FIITJEE provides coaching/preparatory classes for students of Stds. VI to XII+ preparing for competitive examinations in engineering.  Business verticals. FIITJEE offers its services to students in India and the Middle East aiming at examinations such as IIT, AIEEE. It runs study centres, AITS centres, AIEEE test centres and FTRE test centres, offering courses to students from Stds. VI to XII. Here they are subjected to a comprehensive curriculum, facilitating a holistic development of concepts and fundamentals of higher education. This also provides the company with future clients.  Innovative programmes and concepts. The company’s PINNACLE and SUPREME programmes test the IQ of students aspiring to IIT-JEE. Results predict the success rate and level of input required for mentoring. FIITJEE is the only institute in India with the ability to predict the success potential index (SPI) of a student.  Geographical presence and staff strength. It has built up 52 study centres in 16 states and runs more than 300 examination centres, with an employee base of over 800 professionals. It also operates two international centres, one each in Qatar and Bahrain.  Low presence in the Central and Western regions. FIITJEE has a relatively low presence in western and central India. Also, its dominant presence in tier-I cities limits its growth potential. Parents in tier-II and tier-III cities are giving importance to professional courses and competitive exams. This has generated significant demand for coaching institutes such as FIITJEE to commence operations in those regions.
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 126 Gateforum Educational Services Specialist in GATE coaching Established in 2005 to coach students aspiring for GATE, Gateforum Educational Services Pvt. Ltd. offers coaching classes for students appearing for engineering entrance examinations.  Course structure. Gateforum offers planned courses dedicated to preparation for GATE, providing a package to enhance the quality of a student’s preparation. It offers classroom coaching, correspondence courses, e-learning facilities as well as online and offline test series to prepare a student for the GATE examination.  Network spread. It has 43 centres in 15 states, with huge scope for network expansion by venturing into smaller towns.  PSU tie-ups. Gateforum has PSU tie-ups with organizations such as BHEL and NTPC through which it offers test series based on the organization’s recruitment pattern. This improves the selection ratio of students aspiring to work for these PSUs.  Franchisee-led model. The company operates through its own centres and franchisees. Initial investment for a franchisee is in the range of `0.2m to 0.5m. Global Talent Track IT and management focus Offering courses in IT and management, such as software, IT infrastructure and financial accounting, Global Talent Track Pvt. Ltd. (GTT) operates more than 20 edu-centres in India, Malaysia and Shanghai. It also works in ~900 colleges in 15 states as well as through owned centres and franchises. Intel Capital and Helion invested capital in Jan ’09 and are majority holders.  Strong all-India and international presence. GTT is working in ~900 colleges in 15 states of India and has more than 20 edu-centres in India, Malaysia and Shanghai  Unique ‘TechGuru’ program. Its TechGuru programme provides faculty development training, and the Europe-Asia Business School has launched an International Executive MBA Weekend Programme for GTT alumni.  Collaborations. GTT has collaborated with CISCO, universities and government institutions to provide programmes with innovative techniques. It has also collaborated with IAOP to extend IAOP certification exams.  Aggressive expansion plans. GTT plans to train more than 450,000 students in the next five years.
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 127 ICA Infotech Rural and SME-placement focused Operating as a vocation-training institute with almost 400 centres offering courses in accounting, data entry and taxation, ICA Infotech Pvt. Ltd. trains over 45,000 candidates annually and has a strong rural presence, with 200 centers. Saif Partners took a minority stake in 2007.  Strong in rural areas. Rural centres train candidates in a variety of skills in addition to accounting. These include security training, driving and plumbing. ICA Infotech plans to open 1,000 rural franchises in the next 2-3 years.  Strong placement record. It operates 50 placement centres and guarantees jobs for its students. It has a strong relationship with over 50,000 employers, mainly in the SME segment.  Franchisee-led model. It operates 170 retail city-centre training centres, of which 10 are owned, the rest are franchised out.  Geographic presence. Centres are mainly in the east, west and north of the country. It has just one centre in the south, in Chennai.  Strong enrolment stats. It trains over 45,000 candidates annually. 30,000 students in the retail segment (company-owned or franchised institutes) and 20,000 students in the government segment (the government pays ICA for each student trained). IMS Learning Resources Broad range of courses Established in 1977 to offer coaching services to students preparing for management, banking, law and CA examinations, IMS Learning Resources Pvt. Ltd. has 140 centres across the country. It has already served 50,000 students, through owned and franchised centres.  Broad service range. IMS has a broad range of services running preparatory classes for competitive exams in the management stream. In addition, it offers guidance services (Campus Point and IMS Publication) to students aspiring to pursue professional courses. It also runs the IMS Proschool, providing specialized academic courses in financial planning, financial modelling, CFA and financial services marketing.  Excellent training pattern. It follows training/guidance procedures that facilitate regular assessment, while providing performance-related feedback, making the company’s curriculum desirable.
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 128 Indus International School Top-ranked IB schools  Constantly ranked among the top IB schools in India, Indus International has a chain of IB schools. They are promoted by Mantri Developers.  Highly-ranked IB schools. The main Indus International School in Bangalore is constantly ranked by Education World as one of the top- five international schools in India.  Scaling beyond a one-school model. The first Indus International School was established in Bangalore in 2003 and now has almost 1,000 students. After its growing reputation and success, the company has established IB schools in Hyderabad and Pune in 2008. After just a few years of operations, the Hyderabad school has also been ranked by Education World as one of the top IB schools in India. Indus World School Growing all-India presence A chain of K-12 schools owned by Career Launcher, Indus World now has nine schools in India since opening the first school in Hyderabad in 2005.  Expanding chain. With nine schools, in Indore, Hyderabad, Raipur, Bhiwani, Mandi, Ahmednagar, Gurgaon, Aurangabad and Jalgaon, the company has partnered with a major property developer to open 25 schools in Chennai, Bangalore, Kolkata and Visakhapatnam. The schools follow the CBSE curriculum.  Backed by a fast-growing education company. Indus World School is promoted by Career Launcher and therefore has the backing of a leading education company.  Private-equity backed. HDFC PE invested in Indus World in early 2011. K-12 Techno Services Fast-growing affordable education player K-12 Techno Services operates 67 K-12 schools, 12 junior colleges and one international school. The K-12 schools operate under the Gowtham Model Schools brand.  Affordable quality education. Currently all its K-12 schools are based in Andhra Pradesh and focus on the mid-market segment, charging between `1,500 and `2,000 a month per student. K-12 Techno has over 40,000 students. The company is planning on setting up schools in Maharashtra and Gujarat.
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 129  Standardized content. All Gowtham schools follow the same syllabus and content and the teachers are trained. This standardizes quality across schools. All schools are also run through a system-wide ERP system, tracking attendance, courses taught and grading.  Asset-light model. K-12 Techno does not own any of the land or infrastructure of the schools and spends around `400,000-500,000 per school initially (capital expenditure) to give it a facelift and install technology.  New revenue models. K-12 is now starting to franchise the Gowtham Model School brand. It is also planning to provide syllabus-development services to other third-party schools.  PE and strategic funding. In mid-2010, Sequoia Capital invested ~`700m for a significant minority stake. In Sep ’11, Navneet invested ~`600m for a 25% stake. Kangaroo Kids Education R&D stalwart Addressing educational needs of children aged between 10 months to 17 years, Kangaroo Kids Education has a chain of 80 centers and an international presence. It primarily operates in both the pre- school and the K-12 segments, through franchised and owned centers.  All-India presence. It has multiple centres in all major cities (Mumbai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, etc.).  International presence. It also has centres in the Maldives and Dubai and is planning to expand into other countries.  Strong R&D. Its R&D team is one of its major strengths, with 65 instructional-design experts who shape the curriculum.  Standard maintenance measures. Through its School Improvement Team, it ensures smooth running of the management and other administrative functions.  Low presence in east India. It does not have significant presence in eastern India, which opens out a large untapped opportunity. Manipal University Research-focused, strong infrastructural backing A powerhouse and a brand name in higher education in India, Manipal University is located on the west coast of South India, attracting students from 52 countries. It has 20 constituent institutions comprising medical, dental, engineering, architecture, nursing, allied health, pharmacy, management, communications, information science, hotel management, biotechnology, regenerative medicine, etc. It offers Bachelors, Masters and doctoral degrees in various specialties.  Research-oriented. It has a strong focus on research and is the
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 130 largest private recipient of funds for research from the government  Strong brand. Manipal University has branch campuses in Bangalore, Malaysia, Dubai and Antigua in the Caribbean. Its campus in Mangalore has a medical college, a dental college and a nursing college with attached teaching hospitals. MU has international academic collaboration for twinning programmes in engineering with universities in the US, UK, Australia and other countries.  Strong infrastructural backing. Infrastructure includes air- conditioned lecture halls, skills labs, air-conditioned hostels and a multi-cuisine food court. The state-of-the-art health-sciences library is fully air-conditioned, accommodates 1,300 and has over 62,000 books and over 600 journals. Other facilities include a gym and swimming pool, football and cricket grounds. The new indoor sports complex is perhaps one of its kind in Asia  Strong alumni network. It also has active alumni of over 65,000 students across the world. MTeducare Management, consultancy services to pre-university colleges (PUCs) Education-support and coaching to secondary and higher secondary students and those pursuing graduation in commerce, preparing for various competitive examinations and chartered accountancy examinations.  Overview. An education-support and coaching-services provider for students in the secondary and higher secondary and those pursuing graduation in commerce, preparing for various competitive examinations and chartered accountancy examinations, MTeducare operates in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Gujarat, through 190 coaching centres in 106 locations, catering to ~58,000 students.  Expanding reach. It intends to strengthen its presence in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Karnataka by increasing the number of its coaching centres. It will leverage its brand recognition and experience to service the increasing demand for its services, by opening coaching centres at 20 locations in Mumbai and Pune in the next two years.  Managing pre-university junior college. It offers management and consultancy services to pre-university colleges (PUCs) in Mangalore and Udupi (Karnataka). The scope includes advice on structuring PUC courses/curricula and classes, assistance and consultancy in recruiting teachers for the PUCs, training them, providing techniques based on the use of technology, management of tests/examinations conducted by the PUCs, advising and assisting the marketing activities of the PUCs, infrastructure management/advisory and support services (including designing classrooms and laboratories of the PUCs and facilitating optimum utilisation of the available infrastructure) and other administrative and information-technology-related services.
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 131 People Combine High-end K-12 player Operating IB schools under the Oakridge International brand, People Combine also runs a brand of higher-end CBSE schools named Westwood.  High-end focus. While People Combine runs a mid end school called the Nalanda Talent School, its prime focus is the premium segment. It runs the Oakridge International (IB) Schools, and the Westwood (premium CBSE) Schools, that charge Rs.60,000-70,000 in annual tuition per student.  Largest IB school in India. The Oakridge International brand has three schools in Andhra Pradesh under its umbrella; of these, the original campus at Gachibowli in Hyderabad has over 2,700 students making it the single largest IB school in India in terms of student population.  New avenues of growth: pre-schools. The recently-started premium schools under the OI name act as feeder schools for the Oakridge International Schools.  PE funded. ICICI Ventures invested in People Combine in mid- 2010. The company is likely to raise additional funding to feed aggressive growth plans, which include adding several new schools outside AP in the next three years. Radcliffe Quality education on a budget Operates in two major segments – K-12 (36 schools) and business schools (six brands, more than 30 locations) in the country, Radcliffe caters to the mass-market segment; hence, most of its K-12 schools are in tier-II towns or lower.  K-12 for the masses. Begun in 2008, Radcliffe has 26 primary and 10 secondary schools, mainly in tier-II towns. It caters to the middle and lower-middle classes; hence, annual fees range from `16,000 to `25,000, with an admission fee of `25,000.  Primary schools follow the asset-light model. Radcliffe’s primary schools operate at rented premises in the heart of a city; its secondary schools are owned and are at a distance from the city. Its primary schools provide the required feedstock for its secondary ones.  In-house teacher training and content development. Radcliffe hires talent locally via its trusts. It also conducts regular teacher- training sessions so as to keep all teachers well-versed with its in-house developed content.  Affiliation. Radcliffe schools are affiliated to the CBSE board.  Business schools. Radcliffe’s business schools operate at over 30 campuses under six brand names - The Bangalore School of Business
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 132 (BSB), The Delhi Business School (DBS), The Mumbai School of Business (MSB), The International Business School (IBS), The Global School of Business (GSB) and The Rai Business School (RBS). These business schools have 2,400 students across various campuses and brands. Shemford Schools Strong service portfolio Set up by the management of India’s first pre-school chain, Shemrock, Shemford Schools operates 130 schools (including pre- schools) in India. It provides schooling from pre-school to grade XII, primarily functioning under two broad categories, self-owned and franchised centres.  K-12 foray. It operates K-12 schools in all states. It is affiliated to the CBSE and ICSE Boards and has over 130 branches (including pre- schools) in India.  Recognized brand. Shemford was created by the management of Shemrock, India’s first pre-school chain. Shemford stands to benefit from the prior experience of setting up Shemrock, thereby helping it take wiser business decisions.  Wide array of programmes. It offers special programmes such as ShemEduMAX, Parent Participation, ShemFAST and Shemford Training.  International exposure. The student-exchange programme helps children learn about cultures across the globe by helping them interact with such students. This also helps in personality development. Shemrock Schools Interactive teaching methodology Established in 1989 in New Delhi, the Mohali-headquartered Shemrock Schools Pvt. Ltd. operates as a unit of Trinity Education and Welfare Society, a Delhi-registered, non-profit organization, It has established around 10 centres in India. It is affiliated to the Central Board of Secondary Education and provides schooling services up to Std XII.  Broad service portfolio. Shemrock values overall development of students and gives equal emphasis to academic, creative, physical and social activities and provides a wide range of extracurricular activities such as judo, skating, adventure sports, etc., providing students opportunities to excel in the field in which they prefer to make their careers.  Provides medical facilities. In collaboration with community-based mental health professionals, Shemrock provides counselling and consultation to students, families and staff members. It also
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 133 coordinates psycho-educational testing referrals and conducts presentations and workshops for students.  Add-on facilities. In contrast with its competitors, Shemrock provides healthy mid-day meals to its students and promotes good parenting through counselling, guidelines and tips for parents. Speakwell Enterprises Vocational-training expertise Offering spoken English classes to students and corporate training to professionals, Speakwell Enterprises Pvt. Ltd. runs 70 centers in Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Kerala and Maharashtra. It primarily functions under four broad categories: spoken English, employment exchange, overseas education and corporate services  Facility for overseas education. Speakwell has a special facility for overseas education helping students study abroad. Its representatives have direct contact with institutions, providing detailed information about institutes and course structures.  Placement facility. Its Placewell division fulfils placement needs of its students along with providing career counselling. Its placement network covers insurance, sales, retailing, BPO and hospitality. It provides training specific to the requirements of these sectors.  Strong network spread. It operates more than 70 centres in states in India including Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Kerala and Maharashtra. It has served more than 100,000 students till now. TeamLease Strong training services Established in 2002, India’s largest and foremost people supply chain and HR services company TeamLease Services Pvt. Ltd. provides corporate clients with a one-stop solution for all staffing and HR requirements, with a corporate office in Bangalore and full- fledged offices in Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkatta, Ahmadabad and Pune.  Strong technology and infrastructural backing. High-end technological platforms for internal processes and client and associate interaction and use.  Wide, diversified portfolio. TeamLease has a national footprint with 75,000 deputed employees in more than 800 locations. More than 1,400 corporate clients and operating across industry verticals catering to requirements of leading names in BFSI, FMCG and consumer durables, retailing, telecoms, IT, BPO and ITES, automobiles, services, manufacturing, engineering and other sectors.  Training services. It offers training and skill-repair solutions to students and corporate clients
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 134 T.I.M.E. (Triumphant Institute Of Management Education) Leader in MBA test preparation in India The market leader in CAT preparation in India, Triumphant Institute Of Management Education has been diversifying into other areas of training such as engineering and medical entrance preparation, banking courses, study abroad counseling, tuition for secondary school students and GATE preparation.  Largest CAT market share. With over 200 centres in 110 cities in India, T.I.M.E. is one of India’s largest CAT test preparation institutes. It trains around 150,000 students every year in all its segments. The centres are either owned or franchised, but most of the franchises are joint ventures in order to maintain quality across the system.  Ventures into pre-schools and K-12. The institute runs 45 pre-schools under the T.I.M.E. Kids brand, besides two K-12 schools in Hyderabad, but does not expect to expand aggressively in the K-12 segment.  Inorganic growth. In order to expand its vocational-training capabilities, it acquired Veta in Nov ’11, an all-India English training institute.  Private-equity funded. In 2008, it received funding from a major global PE fund. VIBGYOR High (Kare Edumin) Strong quality of education Kare Edumin promotes six VIBGYOR high schools in three states. All VIBGYOR high schools have excellent facilities, which include state-of-the-art classrooms. It has a strong presence in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. All VIBGYOR high schools follow the ICSE and IGCSE syllabi.  Operating in three states, expansion plans underway. VIBGYOR has schools in UP, Maharashtra and Gujarat, with upcoming projects in the Bangalore region.  Strong infrastructural backing. It has excellent facilities, which include state-of-the-art laboratories, a swimming pool, sports and performing arts facilities and air-conditioned classrooms.  Inclusive education program. Services provided under this programme include psycho-educational assessment, vocational guidance, assistance for students with special needs, etc.  Sports and performing arts programmes. The sports and performing arts programmes are specially designed to introduce children to education beyond the classroom through indoor and outdoor activities.  Curriculum. All the schools follow the ICSE and IGCSE syllabi.
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 135 VJTF Education Ltd. Quality K-12 education at reasonable pricing Company operates under brand of Witty Kids and Witty International schools with presence in Maharashtra (3schools) and Rajasthan (1school). Company also has 51% stake in a educational software service provider and runs in house teacher training programmes.  Witty International. VJTF provides K-12 education and has 4 operational school in Maharashtra and Rajasthan. It runs its K-12 schools under brand of Witty International and has affiliation with ICSE, CBSE, IGCSE and IB boards. Company caters to ~3,000 students.  Software services. VJTF has a 51% stake in MICM a software service company which provides software services to ~100 educational institutions catering to ~50,000 students.  Teacher Training. In order to meet the requirement of teaching staff VJTF runs an in house teacher training programme. It also runs special parenting sessions for the parents of all the students enrolled at various schools.  Future plans. VJTF plans to come up with 3new schools in Mumbai by FY14 and construction for the same is ongoing. Further VJTF is also in talks with 9 local vendors to provide franchisee / consultancy for K-12 schools. WLCI Certificate courses – higher education At its campuses, WLCI offers higher-education diplomas in business, design, fashion and media, and claims a ~100% placement record. It is a “for profit” institute.  Overview. WLCI offers higher education diplomas in business, design, fashion and media. Business School: courses in finance, marketing and HR. Other courses: advertising, graphic design, fashion technology, fashion marketing and media.  ‘For-profit model’ attractive for investment. Since WLCI cannot award degrees, its complete “for profit” model does not have an underlying trust structure. PE firm Zephyr Peacock invested in WLCI in June 2007 for a 20% stake.  Near 100% placement. The institute has tie-ups with hundreds of employers and has an almost 100% placement record. It has recently been promoting short diploma programmes through tie-ups with companies, and expects to ramp up this aspect of its business  Locations. Most students are at its five main campuses, in Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai and Hyderabad.  Fees. Fees for a two-year diploma average `400,000. Around 1,800 students are enrolled across all WLCI’s campuses. At the end of a two-year programme, students obtain a diploma. Most of the material taught is proprietary and created with inputs from employers.
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 136 Annexures
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 137 Annexure I – PE/ VC deals in the education sector Date Company Segment Amount ($m) Investors Aug-05 Educomp Solutions Education Solutions 1 Gaja Capital Jul-06 Manipal Universal Learning Distance Learning 70 IDFC PE, Capital International Aug-06 Everonn Education Education Services 3 Vertex Nov-06 UEI Global Education (Hospitality) 0.88 Berggruen Holdings Jan-07 Career Point Infosystems Test Prep(Engineering Entrance Coaching) 1.13 Volrado Ventures Mar-07 The Millennium School K-12 Schools Gaja Capital Jun-07 WLC India Management Education Zephyr Peacock Sep-07 Veta Vocational (English Language Training) 7 SAIF Oct-07 Career Launcher India Test Preparation 8 Gaja Capital Oct-07 ICA Infotech Vocational Training SAIF Nov-07 iDiscoveri Education Content 3.96 Richard Chandler Corp Nov-07 Mahesh Tutorials Private Tutorials 8 Helix Investments Nov-07 Thinklabs Training (Non-IT) 0.36 Seedfund Jan-08 TIME Test Preparation Tiger Global Mar-08 Educational Initiatives Assessment Services 1.85 IFMR Trust, Footprint Ventures, Novak Biddle, Others Mar-08 Indus World School K-12 Schools 3.34 Gaja Capital Apr-08 HMSC Learning Services to K-12 Schools EMPGI May-08 Everonn Education Education Services 10.93 New Vernon, Others Jun-08 EnglishBook Vocational (English Language Training) Genesis Venture Fund Aug-08 IIJT Vocational Education 6.25 Tiger Global Aug-08 Rasmussen & Simonsen International Training (Logistics) Tuscan Ventures Aug-08 Tree House Education Pre-schools 12.15 Matrix Partners India Nov-08 UEI Global Education (Hospitality) 4.85 Berggruen Holdings Dec-08 Prolific Systems and Technologies Vocational Training 2 Al Tanmiya Holdings Jan-09 Global Talent Track Vocational Training 6.5 Intel Capital, Helion Ventures Jul-09 Career Point Infosystems Test Prep(Engineering Entrance Coaching) 10 Franklin Templeton PE Jul-09 FIITJEE Test Prep 22.22 Matrix Partners India Jul-09 ITM Group Tertiary & Executive Education 23.5 Navis Capital Sep-09 IMS Learning Resources Test Preparation 5 Milestone Religare Oct-09 UEI Global Education (Hospitality) 5.12 Berggruen Holdings Nov-09 TeamLease Services Vocational Training 11.11 Gaja Capital Dec-09 SV Edusports Sports Curriculum 1 Seedfund Jan-10 IL&FS Education and Technology Services Education Services 37 India Equity Partners Jan-10 UEI Global Education (Hospitality) 1.05 Berggruen Holdings Feb-10 Manipal Universal Learning Distance Learning 43 PremjiInvest Mar-10 Pathways World School K-12 Schools 26.35 Reliance Equity Mar-10 Resonance Eduventures Test Prep 13 Milestone Religare Apr-10 Ideacount Education Higher Education and Vocational 6 India Alternatives Apr-10 People Combine Avenues K-12 Schools 4 ICICI Venture May-10 Aspire Human Capital Management Vocational (English Language Training) 1.8 Foundation Capital, Others May-10 K-12 Techno Services Services to K-12 Schools 15 Sequoia Capital India, Song Investment May-10 Tree House Education Pre-schools 8.5 Matrix Partners India, Foundation Capital Jun-10 Centum Learning Higher Education 8.65 Mayfield Jun-10 Everonn Education Education Services 2.5 New Vernon Jul-10 Thinklabs Training (Non-IT) 0.22 Seedfund Jul-10 UEI Global Education (Hospitality) 3.65 JM Financial Aug-10 Orion Edutech Vocational (Call Centers) 4 Ventureast-APIDC VC Sep-10 iDiscoveri Education Content 10 Lighthouse Oct-10 Thinklabs Training (Non-IT) 0.67 Seedfund Nov-10 Ace Creative Learning Test Preparation 2.22 Accel India, Catamaran Ventures Nov-10 Your Kids R Our Kids Day Care Center 2.2 India Venture Partners Dec-10 Manipal Universal Learning Distance Learning 44 Catamaran Ventures Dec-10 SV Edusports Sports Curriculum 0.22 Seedfund Source: Venture Inteligence (continued)
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 138 Annexure II – M&As in the education sector Annexure I – PE/ VC deals in the education sector in India since 2005 (concluded) Date Company Segment Amount ($m) Investors Jan-11 FIITJEE Test Prep 20 QInvest Jan-11 Indus World School K-12 Schools 1.5 Gaja Capital, Others Feb-11 Beacon Learning Service Provider to Higher Education Inst. 9.33 Educomp Investment Feb-11 MindShaper Technologies Content Services (K-12) 15 Fidelity Feb-11 Undisclosed Distance Education Kaizen PE Feb-11 Undisclosed Distance Education Kaizen PE Mar-11 K-12 Techno Services Services to K-12 Schools 5.5 Sequoia Capital India Apr-11 Maharana Infrastructure and Professional Services Services to Educational Institutions 11 Matrix Partners India Apr-11 TeamLease Services Vocational Training 22 ICICI Venture, Gaja Capital May-11 Tree House Education Pre-schools 4 Matrix Partners India, Omidyar Network, Foundation Capital Jun-11 Shree Eduserve Vocational (English Language Training) Rajasthan VC Aug-11 InOpen Technologies Education Content 0.5 Ventureast-APIDC VC Aug-11 Tree House Education Pre-schools 0.5 Matrix Partners India Sep-11 Pristine Test Preparation Accel India Oct-11 Vienova Education K-12 and Tutoring 3.5 Helion Ventures Oct-11 Resonance Eduventures Test Preparation 22.0 CLSA Capital Source: Venture Inteligence Deal Date Target Company Acquirer Segment Amount ($mn) Stake (%) Jul-06 Playhouse Luxor Writing Instruments Preparatory school 60 Nov-07 U21 Global Manipal Education Group Online Education 50 Feb-08 Toppers Tutorial Everonn Systems India Private Tutorials Mar-08 Institute of Computer & Finance Executives Nexgen Edusolutions Training (BFSI) 4 Mar-08 Share Gurukul Bajaj Capital Group Training (BFSI) Jul-08 A-Plus Education Solutions Educomp Solutions Finishing School (Software) 3 76 Aug-08 Scholars Learning Centre Mahesh Tutorials Test Preparation Sep-08 EuroKids International Educomp Solutions Pre-schools 8.5 50 Oct-08 DSK Global Education and Research D.S Kulkarni Developers Vocational Education 51 Oct-08 Takshila Management Services Educomp Solutions Schools 51 Dec-08 American University of Antigua Manipal Education Group University (Medical) 80 Dec-08 (Princeton Review) Core Projects and Technologies Education Services (K-12) 20 100 May-09 Mother s Pride AEZ Group Pre-school 100 50 Jun-09 (Educomp Solutions) Pearson Diversified 17.5 50 Jul-09 ITM Group PE Firm(s) Tertiary & Executive Education 23.5 55 Aug-09 Tandem Manipal Education Group Education Services 1.77 100 Oct-09 Trump & Gates DMC International Test Preparation 1.2 100 Mar-10 IIJT TeamLease Services Vocational 5.31 69 Apr-10 Indian Institute of Financial Management Frameboxx Management Education 100 Jun-10 Quest Tutorials DMC International Test Preparation 100 Aug-10 Pre School Analytics Firstobject Technologies Education Content 5.3 100 Aug-10 Vidya Mandir Classes Educomp Solutions Test Preparation 7.4 67 Sep-10 Computer Point Education Computer Point 100 Sep-10 Indo Education Shree Om Traders Higher Education 100 Sep-10 Keenan and Keenan Group Core Projects and Technologies Education Consulting 100 Jan-11 Chitales Personalised Learning Mahesh Tutorials Test Preparation 0.3 51 Feb-11 Gateforum Educational Services Educomp Solutions Test Preparation May-11 ITN Mark Core Projects & Technologies Recruitment (Teachers & Other Staff for UK Schools) 25 100 May-11 Plansteps DMC Education Vocational (Career Counseling) 1 100 Jun-11 Evolv NIIT English Language Training 40 Sep-11 Lifelong Finishing Academy DMC Education Finishing School 0.2 51 Sep-11 (Prosel Ventures) EdServ Softsystems Content Services (Accounting Courses) 7 100 Nov-11 Veta TIME Vocational (English Language Training) 12 Source: Venture Inteligence
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 139 Annexure III – Key ongoing legislation on education Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education Act (RTE) One of India’s landmark Acts on education is the Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education Act (RTE), 2009, which came into effect from 1 Apr ’10. This Act provides the right to all children between the ages of six and 14 years to have free and compulsory elementary education (Std I to VIII) in a neighbourhood school. Free education in private schools under RTE Under the Act, private schools providing elementary education are required to provide free and compulsory elementary education to at least 25% of students from the weaker sections and disadvantaged groups in the neighbourhood. If the school also offers pre-school education, then the reservation would be applicable for such levels as well. The RTE rules prohibit segregation of the reserved category children and also prohibits holding of classes for such children at different places/timings. The schools are to be reimbursed for either the tuition charge or the per-student expenditure in government schools, whichever is lower. At an estimated ~`3,600 per year, per student, reimbursement is lower than lost tuition fee. The RTE specifies that the per student reimbursement would be calculated by dividing the total annual recurring expenditure incurred on elementary education in government schools by the total number of children enrolled. This does not include rental for school buildings. Our ballpark figure for reimbursement amount per year per student works out to ~`3,600. Data published by the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) indicates that the reimbursement amount is higher than the average tuition fees paid at private schools in rural areas but falls well short of the average for urban areas. As 60% of private school students are in urban areas, implementation of RTE can have a major impact, particularly as there is scepticism on whether private schools would in fact receive the reimbursement from the government (Sharma, 2011). If the 25% reserved quota is filled, the total reimbursement amount by the government can run up to `400bn (US$8bn) or 2% of the overall public spend on education. In view of these, questions remain on the practicality of the RTE ACT. Issues include adjustment problems faced by students from weaker sections and disadvantaged groups admitted to well-known private schools. Moreover, studies indicate that reservation for economically weaker sections in private schools is open to challenge in the court of law (Vanka, 2009). Nevertheless, implementation of the RTE would be revenue and profit decretive for urban private schools, especially those in larger cities levying high tuition fees. Private pre-schools not providing elementary education (standard I to VIII), would not fall under the RTE. In this regard, pure pre-schools should have an advantage over K-12 (kindergarten to Std 12) schools. Non-compliance to lead to closure of private schools No new private school would be allowed to be set up/ recognition granted unless they satisfy infrastructure, teacher and teacher qualification norms specified by the Act. Established private schools have a three-year period (i.e. by 31 Mar ’13) to comply with the norms. Non-compliance of norms would lead to withdrawal of recognition and closure after the school is given an opportunity to represent its case. If a school continues to operate, it would attract penalty up to Rs.100,000 and Rs.10,000 per day. Interestingly, while public schools also have the obligation to meet similar requirements, there is no specific penal action, nor any threat of withdrawal of recognition for non-compliance by them. Schools offering courses affiliated/recognised by authorities outside India such as the International Baccalaureate Organization (IBO), will also need to meet the RTE norm for private schools and get recognition from the District Education Officer (DEO) under whose jurisdiction the schools operate. Recognition of a school is separate from its affiliation to a specific board or authority, which determines the academic course structure. The RTE model code specifies that no private school can operate in India without being recognised by the DEO. The RTE prohibits charging of any capitation fee, contravention of which would attract a penalty up to ten times of the capitation fee charged. The Act also prohibits any child or parent screening for school admission, contravention of which would attract penalty up to Rs.25,000 in the first instance and Rs50,000 for every
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 140 subsequent contravention. The Act prohibits teachers from undertaking private tuition or private teaching activities. Legislation to improve quality and authenticity Two important bills in this regard are currently under the deliberation of the Parliament. These are:  The National Accreditation Regulatory Authority for Higher Educational Institutions Bill, 2010, and  The National Academic Depository Bill, 2011 Accreditation to help better private education providers Accreditation is the mechanism for a third-party assessment of the quality of an educational institution against specified norms. The process has dual purposes. First, it allows the particular institution to understand the areas in which it needs to improve quality. Second, it allows the prospective students to make informed choices. Currently accreditation of institutions involved in higher education is voluntary. Only around 20% of the collages and 30% of the universities are accredited. The National Accreditation Regulatory Authority (NARA) for Higher Educational Institutions Bill, 2010, makes accreditation mandatory for all institutions involved in higher education (apart from agriculture, which is a state subject) and all courses offered by them also have to be accredited. All new institutions for higher education or any new course offered by an institution of higher education would need to be accredited before commencement. For already established institutions, such accreditation needs to be obtained within three years (five for institutions imparting medical education). The bill establishes NARA for higher education, which will register and monitor accreditation agencies. These agencies, in turn, would accredit institutions. There is a widespread view that private higher educational institutions are operating without adequate academic and physical infrastructure. Enactment of this bill would clear such suspicions, if unfounded, and thereby would help the cause of better quality and credible institutions. Moreover, this would provide a definite edge to private education providers who are operating with better expertise, management and finances to consolidate their position. The accreditation bill allows only government owned bodies to set up accreditation agencies. This, however, raises doubts about whether such agencies would have an innate bias against private educational institutions. Authentication to deter fly-by-night operators Fake degrees and manipulation of academic records, including marks and grades, are serious challenges faced by employers and by academic institutions admitting students for higher learning. Currently, there is no institutional arrangement to verity or validate such information. The National Academic Depository Bill, 2011 tries to address this gap. The bill aims at establishing a national electronic database of academic awards that would allow verification and authentication of all academic records awarded by all recognised academic institutions operating in India. The National Academic Depository would be the apex organisation for this. The bill makes it mandatory for all academic institutions operating in India and issuing degrees, diplomas, certificates or any other academic award to lodge all such details with the depository. Any person is entitled to request the depository to verify any academic award within a specified time. Accreditation of academic institutions and courses coupled with the authentication mechanism of academic records would benefit capable and serious private institutions and would put pressure on fly-by-night operators in India and also on fictitious education providers from across-the-border. This is likely to provide greater credibility to the private education system in India. Legislation on dispute resolution Currently, disputes between educational institutions and other stakeholders are adjudicated by internal dispute redressal mechanisms set up by such institutions. Certain states have tribunals to look into such issues. Otherwise, such issues follow the normal judicial process. The Educational Tribunals Bill, 2010 has been introduced with the aim of adjudicating disputes relating to higher education in a speedy and consistent manner. This would cover
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 141 grievances by all stakeholders including institutions, teachers, other employees, students and regulators. There would be a tribunal at the national level and each state would also have state-level tribunals, with specific jurisdiction. The bill bars the jurisdiction of civil courts on any matters that the state or national educational tribunal is empowered to determine. Speedy disposal of disputes is likely to benefit bonafide private educational institutes that are often riddled with petty cases. Legislation on private education Public funding remains the predominant form of education financing in most parts of the world including India (see Fig 8). There is also scepticism in many countries that for-profit education provides low-quality and high-cost education and often sell their services by suppression of information or by circulating unsubstantiated stories. Despite these, as in many other parts of the world, in India too private de facto for-profit institutions are attracting an increasing share of students. The limitations of reputed publicly funded institutions to accommodate the rapidly increasing demand, nimbleness of private institutions in aligning courses with the job market trends and aggressive marketing by private institutions are leading to such changes. The recent proliferation of private institutions for higher education in India, especially for technical and professional education has raised scepticism about the ability of such institutions to impart quality education. There is also the view, that the current “not-for-profit” tag for education is deterring the entry of reputed foreign education providers including some of the world’s leading universities to the Indian education system. At the same time, it has been felt that the current system attracts various unscrupulous foreign players who often operate in ways detrimental to the interests of Indian students. In view of these, two legislations on private education are currently under the consideration of the parliament. These include:  The Prohibition of Unfair Practices in Technical Educational Institutions, Medical Educational Institutions and University Bill, 2010  The Foreign Educational Institutions (Regulation of Entry and Operations) Bill, 2010 Guarding against malpractices The Prohibition of Unfair Practices in Technical Educational Institutions, Medical Educational Institutions and University Bill, 2010 seeks to prohibit unfair practices such as demanding capitation fee, admitting students on other than on merit criteria, not issuing receipt for any fee charged, disseminating misleading information and adopting coercive practices to realise payments from students. The bill makes it mandatory for every institution to publish a prospectus at least 60 days prior to admission, containing specified information on academic and financial aspects of the courses. Implementation of the bill would provide greater transparency about private education and thereby benefit the bonafide institutions and deter malafide ones from following underhand practices. Considerable penalties and imprisonment for contravention of the norms should be a deterrent against private education providers adopting unethical practices. The real issue, however, is that without any change in monitoring and enforcement, the bill would not play any major role in India’s education landscape. For example, demanding and giving capitation fee is banned in India. In reality, however, such practices are widespread. In the current form, the bill does not propose any change in monitoring and enforcement. Direct entry of foreign institutions There are estimates that 160,000 Indian students go abroad every year and spend US$4bn. Currently, foreign institutions are allowed to access the Indian market through various routes but each involves a local partner. There are reports that currently 6 foreign universities have approved collaborations, 67 institutes run unapproved technical programmes in foreign collaborations and overall 640 foreign collaborations are in effect in India. Very few foreign institutions involved in such collaborations are globally well-known (Sanyal, 2010). The Foreign Educational Institutions (Regulation of Entry and Operations) Bill, 2010 allows foreign institutions to open a campus in India under permission from the Central government without any partner, but only if they fulfil certain conditions. These conditions include a track record of 20 years in the country of origin, a corpus fund
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 142 of Rs.500mn (US$10mn), at least 25% ploughing back of surplus generated in this country into the corpus fund and deployment of the rest of the surplus on Indian ventures and no repatriation of surplus from India. The courses offered by the foreign institutions have to conform to various standards laid down by the relevant Indian authorities and be comparable to that offered at the original foreign campus. While the bill desires to enhance the scope for entry of reputed foreign educational institutions in India, there are serious doubts whether the same would fructify given the stringent conditions imposed by the bill. The reiteration of the not-for-profit character of education in India in the bill and the consequent ban on repatriation of profit would be serious constraints for such entry.
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 143 References Agarwal, Pawan (2009), “Legally non-profit, for-profit in reality”, Business Today. New Delhi, (Sep 20). Anand, Geeta (2011), “Class Struggle: India's Experiment in Schooling Tests Rich and Poor”, Wall Street Journal, New York, (Jun 4). Anonymous, 2011, “Playschool biz no more child's play”, Financial Express, New Delhi, (Mar 4). Anonymous, 2011a, “Int’l school fee to be regularised”, Daily News & Analysis, Mumbai, (December 8). Dixon, Pauline and James Tooley, 2005, “The Regulation of Private Schools Serving Low-Income Families in Andhra Pradesh, India”, The Review of Austrian Economics, 18:1. The Economist, 2008, “Infrastructure is India’s biggest handicap”, (December 11). Kapur Devesh and Pratap Bhanu Mehta, 2004, “Indian Higher Education Reform: From Half-Baked Socialism to Half-Baked Capitalism”, Center for International Development (CID) Working Papers, No. 108, Harvard University, (September). Kapur Devesh and Pratap Bhanu Mehta, 2007, “Indian Higher Education Reform: From Half-Baked Socialism to Half-Baked Capitalism”, Prepared for Presentation at the Brookings-NCAER India Policy Forum 2007, New Delhi, (July). Planning Commission, 2011, Faster, Sustainable and More Inclusive Growth: An Approach towards the 12th Five Year Plan, Draft, Planning Commission, Government of India, New Delhi (August). Sanyal, Kaushiki, 2010, “Legislative Brief: The Foreign Educational Institutions (Regulation of Entry and Operations) Bill, 2010”, PRS Legislative Research, New Delhi, (October). Sharma, E. Kumar, 2011, “Treasure hunt: Despite regulatory risks, the education space is seeing corporate-style business models emerge as private players pour in funds for big returns”, Business Today, New Delhi, (May 1). Singh, Manmohan, 2007, Address at the 150th Anniversary Function of University of Mumbai, Mumbai, (June). Unni Krishnan, J. P. v State of A. P.,1993, Air 1993 Supreme Court 2179, J. D. Gogia for S. Gogia & Company, Hyderabad. Vanka, Sarita, 2009, “Legislative Brief: The Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education Bill, 2008”, PRS Legislative Research, New Delhi, (February). 1 We need to distinguish between GDP (gross domestic product) and spending. The former is the valued added in an activity and the latter is value of output. Value added takes cognizance of only final use, disregards any intermediate use, and thereby avoids double counting. Value of output also includes intermediate use. For example, the value added to value of output ratio for the Indian manufacturing sector is about 22%. That is value of output for the sector is roughly 5 times higher than manufacturing GDP. 2 We clearly acknowledge that international comparison of prices, especially for goods and services that are not widely traded, have serious limitations because it assumes that the underlying products are of similar quality. For example, in this case, it implies that there is no difference between the education imparted by the Harvard University and an average Indian University to a student pursuing a Ph.D. degree in the respective universities. Yet, calculation of quality-adjusted spending on education also takes us to the realm of value judgement. 3 The encompass and definition of private education and private spending on education used by the Central Statistical Organisation, National Sample Survey Organisation and World Bank are different. Also the methodology used by these organisations for data collection and compilation are distinct. As a result, these are considerable differences in numbers published by them. 4 India has the dubious distinction of maintaining an average fiscal deficit of over 5% of GDP since 1980. The combined fiscal deficit of the central and state governments is considerably higher. The Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) act mandates closing such deficits. While the deficits have widened since the on set of the global financial crisis, government is committed to revert to the path of fiscal consolidation at the earliest. 5 Report based on survey of poor households in Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, indicated that instead of sending their children to public schools offering free education and other inducements, poor parents choose to pay fees and send them to private schools (Dixon and Tooley, 2005). Their decision is mainly due to perceptions of large quality difference between public and private education. These households cough up as much as a tenth of monthly income per child to pay for the private education. 6 Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh pointed out, “…almost two-third of our universities and 90 per cent of our colleges are rated as below average on quality parameters”, Singh 2007. The draft approach paper to the Twelfth Five Year Plan notes, “There must be a strategic shift from mere expansion to improvement in quality higher education. …State universities and their affiliated colleges that account for more than 90 percent of the enrolment suffer from severe fund constraints and poor governance leading to poor quality” Planning Commission (2011). 7 Private players cater to both capital investment (such as construction, furniture, computers and education aids like laboratory equipments) and current expenditure (such as provision of books and stationeries, uniforms, transport services and canteen services) by public educational institutions. 8 Under the RTE Act, “No school or person shall, while admitting a child…subject the child or his or her parents or guardian to any screening procedure. …Any school or person, if in contravention of the provisions …subjects a child to screening procedure, shall be punishable with fine which may extend to twenty-five thousand rupees for the first contravention and fifty thousand rupees for each subsequent contraventions”. In various forms, prohibition on interview of students for school admission existed even before the enactment of the RTE, although in practice such practices continued. It is doubtful whether the RTE act would make any meaningful difference in this regard. 9 Maharashtra Educational Institutions (Regulation of Collection of Fee) Act, 2011, which has been cleared by both houses of the state legislation and awaiting for the President’s nod, aim at regulating fees charged by private schools affiliated to international boards (Anonymous, 2011a). 10 Section 25 of the Companies Act, 1956 specifies conditions under which a company set up for charity or other purposes such as promoting commerce, art, science, religion, or any other useful object could be registered as a company with limited liability, without the addition to its name of the word "Limited" or the words "Private Limited". Such companies, however, are debarred to pay dividend to the members either from profit or from other income that the company might generate. 11 The Planning Commission (2011) notes, “The “not-for-profit” tag in higher education sector should, perhaps, be re-examined in a more pragmatic manner so as to ensure quality without losing focus on expansion and equity.”
    • 29 December 2011 India Education – US$45bn private education opportunity: Everyone wants a slice Anand Rathi Research 144 Notes
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