Towards a science of cities
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6/21/2013 | The Science of Cities | Colin Harrison, IBM Distinguished Engineer Emeritus

6/21/2013 | The Science of Cities | Colin Harrison, IBM Distinguished Engineer Emeritus

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  • Do we want to add the benefit in the headings…..
  • <Quote from the exec summary> In the globally interconnected business and IT world, large-scale system failures, malicious threats, cascading events and natural disasters highlight the complexity and fragility of systems including IT & cyber-physical infrastructure and global business operations. <end quote> This page shows the diversity of disasters and impacts. There are many types of disasters, which gave us huge impact in terms of economy and humanity. Graphs: In the center of this page, you can see a graph, which shows you the number of reported disasters/incidents are increasing recent days. The sources of the numbers are listed below: [US - CERT] The graph is created by consolidating following articles based on US-CERT announcements. GAO: Government Accountability Office http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d08496t.pdf http://fcw.com/Articles/2009/02/17/CERT-cyber-incidents.aspx http://www.bankinfosecurity.com/articles.php?art_id=3463 http://www.informationweek.com/news/government/security/229400156 [The Economist] Which of the following types of threats are seen to be most important in your organisation’s consideration of operational risk management planning? (% respondents) from P5 of “Business resilience ensuring continuity in a volatile environment“, 2007 (http://graphics.eiu.com/files/ad_pdfs/eiu_Bus_Resilience_wp.pdf) [CRED - EM-DAT] Estimated damages (US$billion) caused by reported natural disasters 1900-2010 CRED: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters EM-DAT: Emergency Events Database http://www.emdat.be/natural-disasters-trends http://www.emdat.be/sites/default/files/Trends/natural/world_1900_2010/1d.jpg Figures: (from top left to bottom right) Japan, Quake/Tsunami/ Nuclear , 2011 Loss ~: $200B, 30K Lives Global supply chain impact http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-06-24/japan-quake-caused-almost-200b-damage/2770848 Thailand, Flooding 2011 Loss ~: $13B, 550 Lives Auto and HDD are hit hard http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20111101/NEWS04/111109997 USA, Cyber Attack , 2011 Loss ~: $170M, Personal information is stolen http://www.esecurityplanet.com/headlines/article.php/3934276/Sony-Says-PlayStation-Security-Breach-Will-Cost-170-Million.htm WW, Cloud Service Outage , 2011 Loss ~: $5600/min http://www.informationweek.com/news/hardware/data_centers/229500121 Iceland, Volcano , 2010 Loss ~: $1.7B 10M Passengers affected http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/business/04/21/10/airlines-lost-17-b-due-iceland-volcano-blast-iata-says USA, Port Strikes , 2002 Loss ~: $15B Retail and supply chain disruptions http://www.sfu.ca/~pvhall/pdfs/pvhall_edq_2004.PDF Australia, Bushfire , 2009 Loss ~: $4B, 173 Lives http://www.eganvaluers.com.au/resources/news/egan%20edge%20December10%20newsletter.pdf China + 37 countries, SARS, 2002-2003 Loss ~: $15B, 916 Lives Major workforce disruptions http://home.vicnet.net.au/~dandoc/pdfdoc/sars.pdf

Transcript

  • 1. 1 Towards a Science of Cities Colin Harrison IBM Distinguished Engineer Emeritus colinh@us.ibm.com
  • 2. 2 From Engineering Efficiency to a Science of Cities • 2005-7 Life on an Instrumented Planet • 2008-10 Integrated, sustainable urban systems • 2011- Sustainable and resilient urban systems • 2012- People and urban systems A Science of Cities
  • 3. 3 Measuring, Monitoring, Modeling and Managing MeteringMeteringSensingSensing Real Time Data Integration Real Time Data Integration Real Time + Historical Data Real Time + Historical Data Data Modeling + Analytics Data Modeling + Analytics Visualization + Decisions Visualization + Decisions  Data modeling and analytics to create insights from data to feed decision support and actions Feedbacktouseranddatasource; Incentivesandactionstochangebehavior Feedbacktouseranddatasource; Incentivesandactionstochangebehavior  Comparison of historical data, with newly collected data  Data collection Improved performance derived from data and models to increase efficiency and effectiveness  Data Integration Source: “Instrumenting the Planet”, IBM Journal of Research & Development, March 2009 Life on an Instrumented Planet • The world’s resources are finite – Energy – cost, GHG emissions – Water – “no cost”, Tragedy of the Commons – Space – roads take 20% of space • Technology is cheap and available – Billions of sensors – Pervasive networks – Capacity to store and analyze • Need to close the loop – Price signals – Social Computing – Behavioural Economics
  • 4. 4 MASDAR – A “Carbon Neutral” City* • New city for 90,000 people in Abu Dhabi, UAE • Entirely powered by photovoltaic and solar thermal energy • Personal Rapid Transport system – no private transportation • Complete “Carbon history” of construction • A learning experience for the construction of green cities • A project of the Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company, a subsidiary of Mubadala, the development agency of the sovereign wealth fund of Abu Dhabi Copyright Foster & Partners*August 2008
  • 5. 5 Integrated, sustainable urban systems Intelligent Transportation Systems - Integrated Fare Management - Road Usage Charging - Traffic Information Management - Electric Vehicles Energy Management - Network Monitoring & Stability - Smart Grid – Demand Management - Intelligent Building Management - Automated Meter Management Environmental Management - City-wide Measurements - KPI’s, scorecards - CO2 Management Smart Integrated Building Management - Integrated control systems - Property Performance Management - Building to Grid Enhanced Public Safety - Intelligent Surveillance - Integrated Emergency Services - “Weatherproofing” - Micro-Weather Forecasting Water Management - Smart metering - Network instrumentation - Combined Sewage Overflow
  • 6. 6 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit survey 36 Loss of data Human error System failure Supply chain disruption Virus, worm or other malicious attack on IT systems Employee malfeasance, e.g. theft or fraud Natural disasters, such as fires or floods Unplanned downtime of online systems Terrorism Power outage Pandemic Application failure Industrial action 35 31 29 28 25 22 22 16 13 13 12 8 Natural disasters, human error, cascading failures, and cyber-security attacks highlight the complexity and fragility of our global society, its businesses and infrastructure Thailand: Flooding 2011 Loss ~$4 B, 550 Lives Auto and HDD are hit hard Australia: Bushfires, 2009 Loss ~$4B, 173 Lives WW: Cloud Service Outage , 2011 Loss ~$5600/min USA: Cyber-attack, 2011 Loss ~$170M, Personal information is stolen Japan: Quake/Tsunami/ Nuclear, 2011 Loss ~$200B, 30K Lives Global supply chain impact USA: Port Strikes, 2002 Loss ~$15B Retail and supply chain disruptions 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Number of incidents reported to US-CERT (Source: US-CERT) $200B 1900 2011 Estimated damage caused by reported natural disasters (Source: EM-DAT) Types of threats most important for operational risk management planning (% respondents) China: + 37 countries, SARS, 2002-2003 Loss ~$15B, 916 Lives Major workforce disruptions Iceland: Volcano, 2010 Loss ~$1.7B 10M Passengers affected Sustainable and Resilient Urban Systems
  • 7. 7 People and Urban Systems
  • 8. 8 Urban Systems are the composition of services and capabilities derived from the natural and built environments that we model as a large number of GIS layers Natural Environment Environment ResourcesTopography Roads Buildings Infrastructure UtilitiesLand Use Air Oil Resources MineralsWater Information Services Energy Water Transport Building Services Social Systems People Commerce PolicyCulture
  • 9. 9 Urban Systems Information Capture Structure Integrate Store Typology Taxonomy Networks Scaling Economics Basic Resources Natural Environment Flows & Connections Built Environment Integrated Simulations Engineers Complexity Theorists Urbanists Transportation Planners Transportation Managers Energy/Utility Managers Public Safety Managers Public Health Managers Environmental Managers Economic Development Leaders Urban Systems Analysts Social Scientists Civic Groups / Open Data A Science of Cities Architects
  • 10. 10 Global Systems Science Challenges for Urban Systems 1. Formal representation of Urban Systems • Structures of components • Interactions (P2P, P2S, S2P, S2S) • Inter-dependencies (P<-S, S<-S) 2. Spatial, Temporal, and Domain Integration • “Single View of the Truth” • What real-world problems are we trying to solve? 3. The Need for Flower Collecting • Patterns & Principles to simplify model building 4. Scientific Modeling and Practical Modeling • Understanding and insight • Support for decision-making • Rule of one hand – tipping points 5. Resource consumption & production • Natural and Man-Made resources • By-products, waste • Economic outcomes 6. View of “what is the City trying to do?” • “Real-time” sensing of interactions, resource consumption & production • Match between intention and capabilities • City as a Design Problem – How well does it work? 7. Transformation of how the city works • Transition from Industrial Age to Information Age • Planning for One
  • 11. 11 Closing thoughts…the City as a Design Problem • Cities are and always have been information processing systems. • Cities today are both the source and the solution of many of our global society’s challenges. • Given the increasingly rich pathways between and among urban systems and people for digital information….what would Steve do?
  • 12. 12 Thanks for your attention!