AAS National Conference 2008: Mike Freilich


Published on

Session 7: Earth Science – the Next Decade

19 November 2008, Pasadena, California


Published in: Technology
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Total views
On SlideShare
From Embeds
Number of Embeds
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

AAS National Conference 2008: Mike Freilich

  1. 1. Michael H. Freilich 19 Nov 2008 NASA Earth Science in the Next Decade: Plans and Challenges
  2. 2. THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING <ul><ul><li>Earth’s changing environment will impact every aspect of life on our planet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Climate change has profound implications </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Humans are the only creatures able to analyze, anticipate, and act now to influence events that will occur generations into the future </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Climate change poses profound societal challenges </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Detecting and separating secular global changes from small-scale variability requires technological skill and deep understanding of the Earth as an integrated system </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The fact that we know the climate is changing is a profound testament to our human skills and intellect </li></ul></ul></ul>
  3. 3. NASA Operating Missions OSTM/Jason 2
  4. 4. Near-Real-Time Use for Predictions OSTM/Jason 2
  5. 5. A-Train (2009)
  6. 6. Sea Level Rise from Altimetry and Gravity Total Steric Contribution IPCC WG1 FAR (2007)
  7. 7. ERS and Radarsat SAR Measurements of Arctic Sea Ice Figure courtesy of R. Kwok On the image, the thick multiyear ice is bright; the thinner first year ice is dark. The figure shows the great reduction in multiyear sea ice over 15 year period. Alaska is to the upper left. Feb 1993 Feb 2008
  8. 8. Observations and Models of Arctic Sea Ice Coverage Figure courtesy of J. Stroeve
  9. 9. Decadal Survey Missions Next Generation
  10. 10. Missions in Formulation and Implementation NPP Late 2010? EOS Continuity OCO 1/2009 Atmos CO 2 GLORY 6-9/2009 Aerosols, Solar Irrad AQUARIUS 5/2010 OceanSalinity LDCM 12/2012 Land Imaging GPM 6/2013, 11/2014 Global Precip SMAP 3/2013 Soil Moist+Freeze/Thaw ICESat-II 2014-2015 Ice Topog
  11. 11. OUR RESPONSIBILITY <ul><ul><li>What we do in Earth Science is now deemed by the public and national leaders as IMPORTANT , not simply interesting and challenging.   </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The nation and the public are looking to us to LEAD and to SUCCEED .   </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>We must organize and work so that everything we do supports: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Communicating what we are doing, why we are doing it, and what/when the outcome will be; </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Achieving technical and substantive success in our specific scientific and applications activities; and </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Clearly articulating what we have discovered or demonstrated, and the implications </li></ul></ul></ul>
  12. 12. Transition and Long-term Data Acquisition <ul><ul><li>Earth System science and environmental monitoring and prediction require effective, multi-decadal data acquisition systems. The long-term system is needed to: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Justify initiating new measurements </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Support and advance science programs for studying climate-scale phenomena </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Encourage and support applications development through assured data availability </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The U.S. must develop a predictable, cost-effective mechanism for civilian long-term data acquisition that encourages technology infusion and that enables climate monitoring, delivery of expanded societal benefits, and advances understanding of the Earth System </li></ul></ul>
  13. 13. The REQUIRED APPROACH <ul><ul><li>The NASA/research community must focus on the overall program as identified by the Decadal Survey </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Multi-mission constellations for synergy </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Decadal survey priorities and finite resources mean that some communities will not have early missions </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Mission cost discipline is required – the first missions are not the only missions! </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Balanced NASA program including Flight, R&A, Applications, Technology </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Build early credibility through technically and programmatically successful missions, focused R&A advances, substantial societal benefits </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Work closely with international partners, NOAA, and USGS to ensure a credible long-term data acquisition system </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Recognition of maturity differences between weather and climate products, services, user communities </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Clear, realistic divisions of responsibilities and aspirations </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  14. 14. <ul><li>BACKUP </li></ul>
  15. 15. NASA’s APPROACH <ul><ul><li>Spaceborne measurements feature global coverage, high spatial resolution, and frequent revisit </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Indirect measurements must be validated </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Stability and accuracy are essential for trend detection </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Multiple missions needed for proper sampling </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A comprehensive suite of missions and instruments is required to measure all important quantities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inter- and cross-disciplinary research and applications programs are needed to: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Synthesize complementary measurements from multiple missions </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Advance the use of spaceborne measurements by non-mission scientists and other stakeholders </li></ul></ul></ul>
  16. 16. FOUNDATIONAL PRINCIPALS OF EARTH SCIENCE AND APPLICATIONS <ul><ul><li>The Earth is an integral, complex system </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Many processes, with varying time and spatial scales </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Quantitatively describing the interactions between processes is key </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Measurements must span all important variables, and all important scales </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Open, timely data exchange/availability is essential </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Understanding the integrated system requires coupled, coordinated activities (“end-to-end” approach) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Measurements are important but not sufficient </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Research combines measurements, develops understanding </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Models codify knowledge extend data, and can be used for prediction when coupled with measurements </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Open, timely data exchange/availability is essential </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Societal benefits result from useful information products based on research </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Accurate, focused, timely </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Predictably available </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Understandable (product + user) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  17. 17. OUTLINE <ul><ul><li>Earth Science Division Organization and Budget </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Missions (operating and in development) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Future Missions: Decadal Survey and Venture-Class </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Earth- and Space-Science mission cost study status report </li></ul></ul>
  18. 18. VENTURE CLASS <ul><ul><li>Principles and Objectives </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Relationship to Decadal Survey </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Proposed Implementation </li></ul></ul>
  19. 19. VENTURE CLASS: Principles and Objectives <ul><ul><li>Competitive, cost-constrained program to complement the science questions and missions identified explicitly in the Decadal Survey </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Science-driven investigations involving focused, sustained data acquisition </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>NOT technology development/demonstration </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Science must be accomplished within “mission” lifetime (~3 years) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>PI team, not general community, defines scope </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Promote community involvement through frequent, regular proposal opportunities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ensure scientific flexibility and responsiveness through constrained development schedules </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Space missions, instruments for MOO, sustained suborbital campaigns are all possible under the Venture-class umbrella </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Competitive Venture-Class is not a programmatic substitute for systematic missions; nor should Venture-Class become a vehicle for altering the Decadal Survey priorities </li></ul></ul>
  20. 20. Venture Class (in Decadal Survey, p. 59) <ul><li>U.S. civil space agencies should aggressively pursue technology development that supports the missions recommended in Tables 2.1 and 2.2; plan for transitions to continue demonstrably useful research observations on a sustained, or operational, basis; and foster innovative space-based concepts. In particular: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>NASA should increase investment in both mission-focused and cross-cutting technology development in order to decrease technical risk in the recommended missions and promote cost reduction across multiple missions. Early technology-focused investments through extended mission Phase A studies are essential. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>To restore more frequent launch opportunities and to facilitate the demonstration of innovative ideas and higher-risk technologies, NASA should create a new Venture class of low-cost research and application missions (~$100 million to $200 million). These missions should focus on fostering revolutionary innovation and on training future leaders of space-based Earth science and applications. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>NOAA should increase investment in identifying and facilitating the transition of demonstrably useful research observations to operational use. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>The Venture class of missions, in particular, would replace and be very different from the current ESSP mission line, which is increasingly a competitive means for implementing NASA’s strategic missions. Priority would be given to cost-effective, innovative missions rather than those with excessive scientific and technological requirements. The Venture class could include stand-alone missions that use simple, small instruments, spacecraft, and launch vehicles; more complex instruments of opportunity flown on partner spacecraft and launch vehicles; or complex sets of instruments flown on suitable suborbital platforms to address focused sets of scientific questions. These missions could focus on establishing new research avenues or on demonstrating key application-oriented measurements . Key to the success of such a program will be maintaining a steady stream of opportunities for community participation in the development of innovative ideas, which requires that strict schedule and cost guidelines be enforced for the program participants. </li></ul>
  21. 21. VENTURE CLASS: Potential Implementation <ul><ul><li>ANNUAL SOLICITATIONS (AO) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Maximum 5-year development to “launch” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Maximum $150M total development costs per solicitation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Typical 1 spaceborne mission, or ~2 instruments, selected per solicitation; several suborbital selections possible per solicitation </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ALTERNATE spaceborne and suborbital solicitations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Program can be supported with a dedicated budget enhancement of $150M/year </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Small-Sat development may provide common s/c </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Launch Vehicle costs for full missions must be accommodated </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  22. 22. NASA Earth Science Overview <ul><ul><li>Overarching goal: to advance Earth System science, including climate studies, through spaceborne data acquisition, research and analysis, and predictive modeling </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Six major activities: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Building and operating Earth observing satellite missions, many with international and interagency partners </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Making high-quality data products available to the broad user communities </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Conducting and sponsoring cutting-edge research in 6 thematic focus areas </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Field campaigns to complement satellite measurements </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Modeling </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Analyses of non-NASA mission data </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Applied Science </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Developing technologies to improve Earth observation capabilities </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Education and Public Outreach </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>NASA is the only space agency with a comprehensive research/application program, and the only science agency with expertise in spaceborne data acquisition </li></ul></ul></ul>
  23. 23. Budgetary Realities (?) <ul><ul><li>The Decadal Survey recommendations to NASA were based on unrealistic budget and cost assumptions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>30% increase in ESD budget by FY10 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Reality: Nearly flat budget in appropriations and Administration request </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Decadal Survey mission costs from NRC volunteers </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Reality: NASA concept studies indicate Dec Surv mission costs are generally low </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SMAP and ICESAT-II costs are increasing once assigned </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Agency workforce priorities trump ESD program desires </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Unanticipated NPOESS melt-down and continuing NOAA inability to fund the long-term observation system is a significant national lien </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>NPOESS capabilities, schedules, budget are all moving in the wrong direction </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>NOAA transition plans are unfunded </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>NASA is being asked to consider funding “bridge” implementations </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>National economic situation may influence near-term discretionary budget increases </li></ul></ul>
  24. 24. NASA’s APPROACH <ul><ul><li>Spaceborne measurements feature global coverage, high spatial resolution, and frequent revisit </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A comprehensive suite of missions and instruments is required to measure all important quantities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inter- and cross-disciplinary research and applications programs serve to: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Synthesize complementary measurements from multiple missions </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Advance the use of spaceborne measurements by non-mission scientists and other stakeholders </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Advance understanding and prediction of the Earth as an integrated system </li></ul></ul></ul>