NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
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NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards

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2011 American Astronautical Society Robert H. Goddard Memorial Symposium--Michael Hesse, NASA

2011 American Astronautical Society Robert H. Goddard Memorial Symposium--Michael Hesse, NASA

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  • - GIC flow also in pipelines but the major interest is in GIC impacts on power grids.
  • Disturbances propagate from the surface of the Sun to the Earth in about 1-2 days.
  • Solar wind propagates from L1 (1.5 million km upstream) to Earth in about 30-60 min.

NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards Presentation Transcript

  • NASA Research & Research Missions:
    Addressing Space Weather Hazards
    Michael Hesse
    Chief, Space Weather Laboratory
    NASA GSFC
    49th Robert H. Goddard Memorial Symposium
    - More than you imagine -
    March 31, 2011
  • Elements of Space Weather Forecasting
    • Knowledge (Research)
    • Data/information
    • Models
    • Dissemination
    NASA plays key role in all aspects
  • SOHO (NASA/ESA)
    • Launch Dec. 2, 1995
    • Prime solar observatory at L1
  • Present Missions: STEREO
    • Launch Oct. 25, 2006
    • Instruments operating normally
    • Providing beacon data
    • At 2015 at opposite side of Sun
  • STEREO Orbits
    4 yr.
    STEREO A
    3 yr.
    Ahead @ +22o/year
    2 yr.
    1 yr.
    Sun
    Earth
    SOHO, SDO
    1yr.
    Behind @ -22o/year
    2yr.
    3 yr.
    4 yr.
    STEREO B
    Geocentric Solar Ecliptic Coordinates
    Fixed Earth-Sun Line
    (Ecliptic Plane Projection)
  • Solar Dynamics Observatory
    • SDO launched February 23, 2010
    • Geosynch orbit
    • Key research and space weather platform
  • Present Missions: ACE
    • Launch Aug. 25, 1997
    • Prime Solar Wind information source
    • Almost full RT coverage
  • Future Missions: RBSP
    • Radiation Belt Storm Probes launch date: May 18, 2012
    • 2 S/C, 5.8RE apogee, 600km perigee, 10 degree inclination
    • 2 year nominal mission lifetime
    • The RBSP Space Weather (SW) broadcast will be a transmission like those on ACE and STEREO.
    • Ground processing for SWx products will be provided by receiving organization(s).
  • Forecast model development at NASA
    NASA, together with partner agencies, such as NSF, AFOSR, and ONR, sponsors the development of models, which:
    • Contribute to resolving scientific puzzles
    • Model solar eruptions
    • Predict their impacts
    • Predict space environment consequences
  • Modeling
    • These models run at GSFC’s Space Weather Laboratory in support of
    • Research
    • Education
    • Model testing and validation
    • SWx forecasting for NASA’s robotic missions
    • Other national needs
    Space Weather Laboratory at GSFC
    http://swl.gsfc.nasa.gov
  • CME Forecasting, April 3, 2010 Event
    STEREO-behind
    Available
    since 2006
    CME detection
    SOHO
    Parameters used to start forecasting models
    STEREO-ahead
  • April 3 CME model/forecast
    Expected impact:
    13:30Z April 5
  • Solar energetic particle forecasts
    Solar Energetic Particle
    Forecast model
    (M. Nunez, U. Malaga)
    Solar Energetic Particle
    Forecast model
    (A. Posner)
  • RBSP Data Source for Assimilative Radiation Belt Model (DREAM)
    GEO & GPS & Polar Observations
    Data Assimilation Model
    Modeled HEO Fluxes
    Measured HEO Fluxes
    R. Friedel/LANL
  • Ionosphere/Communication
  • Neutral Atmosphere
    Heating Rate
    Drag
    effects
  • 19
    Solar Shield:Protecting the Power Grid
    Geomagnetically induced current (GIC)
  • Level 1 forecasts
    NASA observations of explosions on the Sun drive modern model calculations. SOHO and STEREO data used.
    Model output at the Earth used in a statistical model tp provide probabilistic estimate for GIC at individual nodes of the power grid. GIC forecast file is generated.
    Model propagates the disturbance to the Earth through interplanetary space. Computations carried out at the Space Weather Laboratory.
    20
    April 3, 2008
  • NASA ACE Lagrange 1 observations used as boundary conditions for magnetospheric model.
    Model output used to drive geomagnetic induction and GIC code providing GIC at individual nodes of the power grid. GIC forecast file is generated.
    Magnetospheric model used to model the current flow in the Earth’s upper atmosphere. Computations carried out at the Space Weather Laboratory at GSFC.
    21
    April 3, 2008
  • Coupling to the SUNBURST research support tool
    % Level 1 GIC forecast produced by REALTIMEGIC_LEVEL1
    %
    % The format of the data is as follows:
    % 0 0 0 0 0 lat1 lon1 lat2 lon2 . . .
    % yy mm dd hh mi GIC1low GIC1high GIC2low GIC2high . . .
    %
    0 0 0 0 53.16 -99.29 45.39 -68.53
    2006 12 14 14 6 76 15 153
    % Level 2 GIC forecast produced by REALTIMEGIC_LEVEL2
    %
    % The format of the data is as follows:
    % 0 0 0 0 0 0 lat1 lon1 lat2 lon2 . . .
    %
    0 0 0 0 0 0 53.16 -99.29 45.39 -68.53
    2008 03 19 11 02 31 -0.11 0.00 0.13 0.00
    2008 03 19 11 04 31 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.00
    2008 03 19 11 06 31 -0.02 0.00 0.04 0.00
    2008 03 19 11 08 31 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
    22
    Unique and innovative capability
  • Innovative dissemination
    One-stop shop for state-of-the-art information
    > 200 SWx Tools
    Flexible to adapt
    to changing model
    (and data) environment
    User-configurable web-based system for analyzing space weather. Includes the most comprehensive list of SW data products and modeling results
    iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov
    • In the field SWx capability
    • Enable “citizen scientist”
    • Soon for Android
  • Conclusions
    NASA SMD missions and priorities are driven by scientific objectives, including the goal to understand Space Weather
    NASA missions can, do, and will provide substantial and critical space weather information
    With the growing use of assimilative models, ingestion of NASA-provided data streams can create invaluable input into space science and space weather models
    NASA is proud of its contributions to real-time Space Weather forecasting, and we look forward to working with the partner agencies in the future.