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NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
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NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards

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2011 American Astronautical Society Robert H. Goddard Memorial Symposium--Michael Hesse, NASA

2011 American Astronautical Society Robert H. Goddard Memorial Symposium--Michael Hesse, NASA

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  • - GIC flow also in pipelines but the major interest is in GIC impacts on power grids.
  • Disturbances propagate from the surface of the Sun to the Earth in about 1-2 days.
  • Solar wind propagates from L1 (1.5 million km upstream) to Earth in about 30-60 min.
  • Transcript

    • 1. NASA Research & Research Missions:
      Addressing Space Weather Hazards
      Michael Hesse
      Chief, Space Weather Laboratory
      NASA GSFC
      49th Robert H. Goddard Memorial Symposium
      - More than you imagine -
      March 31, 2011
    • 2. Elements of Space Weather Forecasting
      • Knowledge (Research)
      • 3. Data/information
      • 4. Models
      • 5. Dissemination
      NASA plays key role in all aspects
    • 6. SOHO (NASA/ESA)
      • Launch Dec. 2, 1995
      • 7. Prime solar observatory at L1
    • Present Missions: STEREO
      • Launch Oct. 25, 2006
      • 8. Instruments operating normally
      • 9. Providing beacon data
      • 10. At 2015 at opposite side of Sun
    • STEREO Orbits
      4 yr.
      STEREO A
      3 yr.
      Ahead @ +22o/year
      2 yr.
      1 yr.
      Sun
      Earth
      SOHO, SDO
      1yr.
      Behind @ -22o/year
      2yr.
      3 yr.
      4 yr.
      STEREO B
      Geocentric Solar Ecliptic Coordinates
      Fixed Earth-Sun Line
      (Ecliptic Plane Projection)
    • 11. Solar Dynamics Observatory
      • SDO launched February 23, 2010
      • 12. Geosynch orbit
      • 13. Key research and space weather platform
    • 14. Present Missions: ACE
      • Launch Aug. 25, 1997
      • 15. Prime Solar Wind information source
      • 16. Almost full RT coverage
    • Future Missions: RBSP
      • Radiation Belt Storm Probes launch date: May 18, 2012
      • 17. 2 S/C, 5.8RE apogee, 600km perigee, 10 degree inclination
      • 18. 2 year nominal mission lifetime
      • 19. The RBSP Space Weather (SW) broadcast will be a transmission like those on ACE and STEREO.
      • 20. Ground processing for SWx products will be provided by receiving organization(s).
    • 21. Forecast model development at NASA
      NASA, together with partner agencies, such as NSF, AFOSR, and ONR, sponsors the development of models, which:
      • Contribute to resolving scientific puzzles
      • 22. Model solar eruptions
      • 23. Predict their impacts
      • 24. Predict space environment consequences
    • Modeling
      • These models run at GSFC’s Space Weather Laboratory in support of
      • 25. Research
      • 26. Education
      • 27. Model testing and validation
      • 28. SWx forecasting for NASA’s robotic missions
      • 29. Other national needs
      Space Weather Laboratory at GSFC
      http://swl.gsfc.nasa.gov
    • 30. CME Forecasting, April 3, 2010 Event
      STEREO-behind
      Available
      since 2006
      CME detection
      SOHO
      Parameters used to start forecasting models
      STEREO-ahead
    • 31. April 3 CME model/forecast
      Expected impact:
      13:30Z April 5
    • 32. Solar energetic particle forecasts
      Solar Energetic Particle
      Forecast model
      (M. Nunez, U. Malaga)
      Solar Energetic Particle
      Forecast model
      (A. Posner)
    • 33. RBSP Data Source for Assimilative Radiation Belt Model (DREAM)
      GEO & GPS & Polar Observations
      Data Assimilation Model
      Modeled HEO Fluxes
      Measured HEO Fluxes
      R. Friedel/LANL
    • 34. Ionosphere/Communication
    • 35. Neutral Atmosphere
      Heating Rate
      Drag
      effects
    • 36. 19
      Solar Shield:Protecting the Power Grid
      Geomagnetically induced current (GIC)
    • 37. Level 1 forecasts
      NASA observations of explosions on the Sun drive modern model calculations. SOHO and STEREO data used.
      Model output at the Earth used in a statistical model tp provide probabilistic estimate for GIC at individual nodes of the power grid. GIC forecast file is generated.
      Model propagates the disturbance to the Earth through interplanetary space. Computations carried out at the Space Weather Laboratory.
      20
      April 3, 2008
    • 38. NASA ACE Lagrange 1 observations used as boundary conditions for magnetospheric model.
      Model output used to drive geomagnetic induction and GIC code providing GIC at individual nodes of the power grid. GIC forecast file is generated.
      Magnetospheric model used to model the current flow in the Earth’s upper atmosphere. Computations carried out at the Space Weather Laboratory at GSFC.
      21
      April 3, 2008
    • 39. Coupling to the SUNBURST research support tool
      % Level 1 GIC forecast produced by REALTIMEGIC_LEVEL1
      %
      % The format of the data is as follows:
      % 0 0 0 0 0 lat1 lon1 lat2 lon2 . . .
      % yy mm dd hh mi GIC1low GIC1high GIC2low GIC2high . . .
      %
      0 0 0 0 53.16 -99.29 45.39 -68.53
      2006 12 14 14 6 76 15 153
      % Level 2 GIC forecast produced by REALTIMEGIC_LEVEL2
      %
      % The format of the data is as follows:
      % 0 0 0 0 0 0 lat1 lon1 lat2 lon2 . . .
      %
      0 0 0 0 0 0 53.16 -99.29 45.39 -68.53
      2008 03 19 11 02 31 -0.11 0.00 0.13 0.00
      2008 03 19 11 04 31 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.00
      2008 03 19 11 06 31 -0.02 0.00 0.04 0.00
      2008 03 19 11 08 31 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
      22
      Unique and innovative capability
    • 40. Innovative dissemination
      One-stop shop for state-of-the-art information
      > 200 SWx Tools
      Flexible to adapt
      to changing model
      (and data) environment
      User-configurable web-based system for analyzing space weather. Includes the most comprehensive list of SW data products and modeling results
      iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov
    • 41.
      • In the field SWx capability
      • 42. Enable “citizen scientist”
      • 43. Soon for Android
    • Conclusions
      NASA SMD missions and priorities are driven by scientific objectives, including the goal to understand Space Weather
      NASA missions can, do, and will provide substantial and critical space weather information
      With the growing use of assimilative models, ingestion of NASA-provided data streams can create invaluable input into space science and space weather models
      NASA is proud of its contributions to real-time Space Weather forecasting, and we look forward to working with the partner agencies in the future.

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