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NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards
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NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards

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2011 American Astronautical Society Robert H. Goddard Memorial Symposium--Michael Hesse, NASA

2011 American Astronautical Society Robert H. Goddard Memorial Symposium--Michael Hesse, NASA

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  • - GIC flow also in pipelines but the major interest is in GIC impacts on power grids.
  • Disturbances propagate from the surface of the Sun to the Earth in about 1-2 days.
  • Solar wind propagates from L1 (1.5 million km upstream) to Earth in about 30-60 min.
  • Transcript

    1. NASA Research & Research Missions: <br />Addressing Space Weather Hazards<br />Michael Hesse<br />Chief, Space Weather Laboratory<br />NASA GSFC<br />49th Robert H. Goddard Memorial Symposium<br />- More than you imagine -<br />March 31, 2011<br />
    2. Elements of Space Weather Forecasting<br /><ul><li>Knowledge (Research)
    3. Data/information
    4. Models
    5. Dissemination</li></ul>NASA plays key role in all aspects<br />
    6. SOHO (NASA/ESA)<br /><ul><li>Launch Dec. 2, 1995
    7. Prime solar observatory at L1</li></li></ul><li>Present Missions: STEREO<br /><ul><li>Launch Oct. 25, 2006
    8. Instruments operating normally
    9. Providing beacon data
    10. At 2015 at opposite side of Sun</li></li></ul><li>STEREO Orbits<br />4 yr.<br />STEREO A<br />3 yr.<br />Ahead @ +22o/year<br />2 yr.<br />1 yr.<br />Sun<br />Earth<br />SOHO, SDO<br />1yr.<br />Behind @ -22o/year<br />2yr.<br />3 yr.<br />4 yr.<br />STEREO B<br />Geocentric Solar Ecliptic Coordinates<br />Fixed Earth-Sun Line<br />(Ecliptic Plane Projection)<br />
    11. Solar Dynamics Observatory<br /><ul><li>SDO launched February 23, 2010
    12. Geosynch orbit
    13. Key research and space weather platform</li></li></ul><li>
    14. Present Missions: ACE<br /><ul><li>Launch Aug. 25, 1997
    15. Prime Solar Wind information source
    16. Almost full RT coverage</li></li></ul><li>Future Missions: RBSP<br /><ul><li>Radiation Belt Storm Probes launch date: May 18, 2012
    17. 2 S/C, 5.8RE apogee, 600km perigee, 10 degree inclination
    18. 2 year nominal mission lifetime
    19. The RBSP Space Weather (SW) broadcast will be a transmission like those on ACE and STEREO.
    20. Ground processing for SWx products will be provided by receiving organization(s). </li></li></ul><li>
    21. Forecast model development at NASA<br />NASA, together with partner agencies, such as NSF, AFOSR, and ONR, sponsors the development of models, which:<br /><ul><li>Contribute to resolving scientific puzzles
    22. Model solar eruptions
    23. Predict their impacts
    24. Predict space environment consequences</li></li></ul><li>Modeling<br /><ul><li>These models run at GSFC’s Space Weather Laboratory in support of
    25. Research
    26. Education
    27. Model testing and validation
    28. SWx forecasting for NASA’s robotic missions
    29. Other national needs</li></ul>Space Weather Laboratory at GSFC<br />http://swl.gsfc.nasa.gov<br />
    30. CME Forecasting, April 3, 2010 Event<br />STEREO-behind<br />Available<br />since 2006<br />CME detection<br />SOHO<br />Parameters used to start forecasting models<br />STEREO-ahead<br />
    31. April 3 CME model/forecast<br />Expected impact:<br />13:30Z April 5<br />
    32. Solar energetic particle forecasts<br />Solar Energetic Particle<br /> Forecast model <br />(M. Nunez, U. Malaga)<br />Solar Energetic Particle<br /> Forecast model <br />(A. Posner)<br />
    33. RBSP Data Source for Assimilative Radiation Belt Model (DREAM) <br />GEO & GPS & Polar Observations<br />Data Assimilation Model<br />Modeled HEO Fluxes<br />Measured HEO Fluxes<br />R. Friedel/LANL<br />
    34. Ionosphere/Communication<br />
    35. Neutral Atmosphere<br />Heating Rate<br />Drag<br />effects<br />
    36. 19<br />Solar Shield:Protecting the Power Grid<br />Geomagnetically induced current (GIC)<br />
    37. Level 1 forecasts<br />NASA observations of explosions on the Sun drive modern model calculations. SOHO and STEREO data used.<br />Model output at the Earth used in a statistical model tp provide probabilistic estimate for GIC at individual nodes of the power grid. GIC forecast file is generated.<br />Model propagates the disturbance to the Earth through interplanetary space. Computations carried out at the Space Weather Laboratory.<br />20<br />April 3, 2008<br />
    38. NASA ACE Lagrange 1 observations used as boundary conditions for magnetospheric model.<br />Model output used to drive geomagnetic induction and GIC code providing GIC at individual nodes of the power grid. GIC forecast file is generated. <br />Magnetospheric model used to model the current flow in the Earth’s upper atmosphere. Computations carried out at the Space Weather Laboratory at GSFC.<br />21<br />April 3, 2008<br />
    39. Coupling to the SUNBURST research support tool<br />% Level 1 GIC forecast produced by REALTIMEGIC_LEVEL1<br />%<br />% The format of the data is as follows: <br />% 0 0 0 0 0 lat1 lon1 lat2 lon2 . . .<br />% yy mm dd hh mi GIC1low GIC1high GIC2low GIC2high . . .<br />%<br /> 0 0 0 0 53.16 -99.29 45.39 -68.53<br />2006 12 14 14 6 76 15 153<br />% Level 2 GIC forecast produced by REALTIMEGIC_LEVEL2<br />% <br />% The format of the data is as follows: <br />% 0 0 0 0 0 0 lat1 lon1 lat2 lon2 . . .<br />%<br /> 0 0 0 0 0 0 53.16 -99.29 45.39 -68.53<br />2008 03 19 11 02 31 -0.11 0.00 0.13 0.00 <br />2008 03 19 11 04 31 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.00 <br />2008 03 19 11 06 31 -0.02 0.00 0.04 0.00 <br />2008 03 19 11 08 31 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 <br />22<br />Unique and innovative capability<br />
    40. Innovative dissemination<br />One-stop shop for state-of-the-art information<br />> 200 SWx Tools<br />Flexible to adapt<br /> to changing model<br /> (and data) environment<br />User-configurable web-based system for analyzing space weather. Includes the most comprehensive list of SW data products and modeling results<br />iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov<br />
    41. <ul><li>In the field SWx capability
    42. Enable “citizen scientist”
    43. Soon for Android</li></li></ul><li>Conclusions<br />NASA SMD missions and priorities are driven by scientific objectives, including the goal to understand Space Weather<br />NASA missions can, do, and will provide substantial and critical space weather information<br />With the growing use of assimilative models, ingestion of NASA-provided data streams can create invaluable input into space science and space weather models<br />NASA is proud of its contributions to real-time Space Weather forecasting, and we look forward to working with the partner agencies in the future.<br />

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