Building better business cases - Nick Wensley
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Building better business cases - Nick Wensley

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Nick Wensley, Business Adviser, Young Enterprise Programme who will cover business cases past, present and future and consider what the future holds for developing business cases.

Nick Wensley, Business Adviser, Young Enterprise Programme who will cover business cases past, present and future and consider what the future holds for developing business cases.

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Building better business cases - Nick Wensley Building better business cases - Nick Wensley Presentation Transcript

  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 1 Building Better Business Cases
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 2 Nick Wensley Business Adviser, Young Enterprise Chair MCI Kent Network Director, Farthing Consulting Limited Chair, APM Benefits Management SIG IntroductionsIntroductions
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 3 Why are we here? To explore the need for robust business cases Why are we here?Why are we here?
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 4 Our objectives for today are: • Focus on Business Cases • Deliver a series of checklists to be used as a guide when constructing Business Cases (see slides and Annexes) • Share lessons learned ObjectivesObjectives
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 5 • Definition A Business Case is a working document designed to convey the benefits and value of the programme/ project in a business sense. It is the most important set of information for the Programme/Project as it drives the decision-making process and is used continually to align progress to the business objectives that are defined within it. • Purpose The purpose of the Business Case is to justify the undertaking of the Programme/Project on the estimated cost of development and implementation against the Risks and anticipated business benefits. It provides a framework for informed decision making in planning and management of the Programme/Project and subsequent benefits realisation. The Programme/Project Board will monitor the ongoing viability of the Programme/Project against the Business Case. Definitions – a Government DepartmentDefinitions – a Government Department
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 6 Guidance on contentGuidance on content • APM Body of Knowledge • Delivering Public Value from Spending Proposals • Public Sector Business Cases using the Five Case Model: a Toolkit • H.M. Treasury Green Book I will let you have details about how to get the above at the end
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 7 Building a Business Case - ActivityBuilding a Business Case - Activity What are the top 10 things you would consider when building a business case
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 8 Check ListCheck List • Are the business case objectives well defined? • Fit with the organisation’s priorities • Is the scope realistic? • Scope of undertaking (what does it cover – min, desirable & full options?) • Are we dependent on someone for the successful delivery of outputs? • Parameters (start and end points) • Standalone project or part of programme? • Interrelationships (dependencies on others for success) • Is what will success will look like well defined ? (CSFs) • Evidence of rigorous quantitative analysis – Cost/ benefits • Consideration of risk • Sensitivity analysis
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 9 Types of business caseTypes of business case Strategic outline case • Why are we doing this? • Build a long list • Examine viability Outline business case • Cost benefit analysis • Assessment of risk Full business case • Full sensitivity analysis • Affordability
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 10 The 5 case modelThe 5 case model Business cases can be looked at in a number of ways. A particularly useful approach is to examine a number of facets; 1 - Strategic Case - The big picture 2 - Economic Case - The options 3 - Financial case - Do the numbers stack up? 4 - Commercial case – Who delivers 5 - Management case – Governance The development of business cases can be seen as an iterative process, with an increasing level of detail and firmness being achieved at each stage of the process.
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 11 The 5 case modelThe 5 case model STRATEGIC CASE This should indicate the key strategic drivers, and state how the investment proposal supports policy delivery. The outcome of this part of the case should be a set of SMART objectives which in essence define what the project is about. These will be derived from information about the organisation and its needs, and the strategic context it operates in. ECONOMIC CASE This should describe the options being considered and in the full business base go into considerable detail regarding the preferred option. The outcome of this part of the case should be a clear and defined preferred option, supported by risk and benefits analyses and meeting the project’s objectives. At OBC stage, the preferred option will inform the OJEC and the PSC; at FBC, it will be the option for which the funding is best value for money.
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 12 The 5 case modelThe 5 case model FINANCIAL CASE The outcome of this part of the case should be a clear view of whether the project is affordable or not; if there is a gap, there should be a plan indicating potential sources of funding. COMMERCIAL CASE This should indicate at OBC stage the procurement route (i.e. restricted, negotiated or open procedure) and the project’s PFI/PPP-ability; at FBC stage it should in addition state the contractual basis. The outcome of this part of the case, at OBC stage, should be an acceptable OJEC advertisement MANAGEMENT CASE The project management method should be stated, and what support there is for the investment within the organisation (e.g. Perm Sec, SRO ) and outside (external stakeholders in particular). This section is expected to pick up the management issues in all the previous areas.
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 13 ActivityActivity What % of importance would you apply to each of the 5 cases against the three BC types Strategic Outline Full Strategic Economic Financial Commercial Management
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 14 My Suggested ListMy Suggested List What % of importance would you apply to each of the 5 cases against the three BC types Strategic Outline Full Strategic 60 10 10 Economic 15 30 20 Financial 5 25 25 Commercial 5 20 25 Management 15 15 20
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 15 A living documentA living document : strategic fit – how well does the proposed way of meeting the requirement support the organisation’s objectives and current priorities? Does the scope need to change? options – has a wide range been explored, including innovation and/or collaboration with others? achievability – can this project be achieved with the organisation’s current capability and capacity (such as other projects with a high priority that must be delivered at the same time)? value for money – can this be obtained from proposed sources of supply such as current suppliers? Does the project need to be made attractive to a wider market? affordability – is the budget available to deliver what is required? If not, can the scope be reduced or delivery extended over a longer period of time; or funding sought from other sources? The following questions are explored at each stage of case development The business case review cycle- a living document
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 16 The construction processThe construction process Size Complexity Structure
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 17 My viewMy view • The effort expended on, and size of, the business case should be proportional to the value, complexity and risk associated with the investment. Novel and/or contentious cases will require greater justification. Does the business case reflect this? • Is the document in proportion to the value of the investment, i.e. 300 pages for £50K of expenditure is clearly not. • How complex is the case, is it drafted in a way that facilitates understanding? • Is the risk analysis pitched at the right level in the light of the investment?
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 18 Stakeholder commitmentStakeholder commitment High Low High Low Consult and carry Consult Inform Ignore Stakeholder importance or influence Potentialimpactonstakeholder Stakeholder importance or influence Potentialimpactonstakeholder How you identified all stakeholders and analysed their needs /reqs. Are stakeholders on board? Is your comms. plan sound? Can we rely on their support? Will our case have a positive or negative impact on them? ?
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 19 Investment ObjectivesInvestment Objectives Objectives must be clearly set out and be: • Specific • Measurable • Action oriented • Relevant • Timely • Baselining is critical – baseline before undertaking any activity! • If you don’t what will you measure and improve against?
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 20 Critical Success FactorsCritical Success Factors CSF – precondition for success Define the critical success factors for the project, programme or business initiative – what will success look like? Determine how success will be measured (eg: percentage take up of a new service over 6 years, with milestones for each annual improvement in take up)
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 21 Options analysis – option constructionOptions analysis – option construction Have appropriate scenarios been identified? The initial options to be considered should include: • “Do Nothing” • “Do minimum” maintain status quo • “Rolls Royce” make really explicit -beware • Further option(s) as identified • “The preferred option” (not proven at this stage) All contribute to the long-list
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 22 Long-listLong-list The Business Case should demonstrate that the options appraisal considered all aspects to arrive at the best balance of cost, benefit, risk and strategic impact.
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 23 Rejection LogicRejection Logic The long list needs to be filtered to produce a more focused list of viable options. Ensure there is evidence that this has been undertaken? Suitability – does the option really take on board the circumstances in which the stakeholders are operating? Does it fit with developing trends and changes in the operating environment? Acceptability – Will the implementation plan meet the expected performance outcomes and expectations? Feasibility – will it really work in practice? Do we have the resources / capability to make it happen?
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 24 ShortlistShortlist Has to include “do nothing” Has to include “do minimum” At least one other, preferably two viable options Basically any option that is do-able outside the reject logic “No magic number”
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 25 BenefitsBenefits  Direct financial benefits: Cash releasing - those that are realised by the programme/project and can be measured in monetary terms.  Direct non-financial benefits: Non cash releasing - those that are realised by the programme/project but are difficult or impossible to measure in monetary terms (productivity or efficiency)  Indirect benefits: those that result either from the direct benefits or from other changes made by the programme/project (qualitative)  ‘Soft’ or intangible benefits: usually associated with change programmes (cultural or HR issues). Often very difficult to quantify. May require proxy indicators.
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 26 BenefitsBenefits ACTIVITY List some typical benefits and their categories
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 27 Contingent benefitsContingent benefits These are benefits where the realisation of goals is dependent on variables which are out of the scope of control of the delivery team. These benefits are very common in a policy environment where macro level changes across society and the economy can impact the envisaged benefits from a project. Can be addressed by: either expanding the scope, getting explicit sign up from the relevant stakeholders or downgrading/removing the benefit. “Never promise what you can’t deliver” Example – variables could include take up of initiatives by the population e.g. Tax Credits, a healthier population etc.
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 28 Benefit timingBenefit timing How and when have benefits been factored into the business case? • Benefits rarely start from day one • Benefits scale up over time • Some have a finite lifespan (one-offs) • Over-elaboration of benefits is a common feature in challenging business cases
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 29 If house prices rise is this good, bad, neutral, or all of these things? If house prices rise is this good, bad, neutral, or all of these things? Depends or your own point of view. Are you …Depends or your own point of view. Are you … a Seller realising investmenta Seller realising investment a Seller wanting to buy againa Seller wanting to buy again a Buyera Buyer taking a Macro-economic view - Inflationtaking a Macro-economic view - Inflation Benefits are about perception and can be viewed as either Benefit or Dis-benefit or even both at the same time Benefits are about perception and can be viewed as either Benefit or Dis-benefit or even both at the same time Are benefits really benefits?Are benefits really benefits? The benefits named in the business case MUST be relevant to the investment and achievable through the investment The benefits named in the business case MUST be relevant to the investment and achievable through the investment
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 30 CostsCosts Definitions Fixed costs remain constant over wide ranges of activity for a specified time period (such as an office building); Variable costs vary according to the volume of activity (external training costs, for example, varying with the number of trainees); Semi-variable costs include both a fixed and variable component (maintenance is an example, where there is usually a set planned programme, and a responsive regime whose costs vary in proportion to activity, i.e. the number of call-outs); and, Semi-fixed, or step costs, are fixed for a given level of activity but they eventually increase by a given amount at some critical point (after telephone call volumes reach a certain level, a new call centre may be required).
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 31 A Typical RequirementA Typical Requirement Cost Breakdown • Capital Costs; • Project, programme or business initiative cost; and • Operational costs of the solution. Remember to identify both the initial outlay to start/build and the longer term ongoing costs to operate/maintain. Whole life costs approach. Try to identify the funding streams. Sunk Costs – costs necessary to the investment but already expended. These need to be recognised but not included in any investment evaluation (sunk costs would apply to every option).
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 32 NPV & cost of moneyNPV & cost of money Discounting - Is simply the opposite of compounding. If our bank account pays us 3.5% each year in interest, and we make no withdrawals, this builds up year on year – it compounds to use the financial term. Equally if we do not add the interest, inflation will erode the real value of the money in our account. We can assume that this erosion will be cumulative (discounting) and can calculate how much our money is worth today at a set rate of erosion. Discounting converts all costs and benefits to ‘present values’, so that they can be compared in today’s value terms. A typical recommended discount rate is 3.5%. Calculating the present value of the differences between the streams of costs and benefits provides the net present value (NPV) of an option.
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 33 Why use present values?Why use present values? Only way of fair comparison of investment options Benefit and cost timing over the investment period will vary by option Therefore future cash-flows must be resolved to a common base..
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 34 RiskRisk Risks Risks need to be identified, assessed and controlled. Has a register been produced? Is there evidence in the business case of a risk management strategy? • Identifying possible risks in advance and putting mechanisms in place to minimise the likelihood of their materialising with adverse effects; • Having processes in place to monitor risks, and access to reliable, up- to-date information about risks; • The right balance of control in place to mitigate the adverse consequences of the risks, if they should materialise; and, • Decision-making processes supported by a framework of risk analysis and evaluation.
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 35 The Risk RainbowThe Risk Rainbow The scope of risk management is wide-ranging This model was developed from a variety of sources including HMT risk categories ICT risks Disruption Insufficient/inadequate Reputation Health & Safety Missed opportunities Plan Communication Budget Joined-up Information Leadership Suppliers Economy Delays Quality reduction Capacity reduction Impair new initiatives M edia Political User dissatisfactionMonitor Remember there is a potential cost attached to risk
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 36 Risk categorisationRisk categorisation The OGC’s 4 categories of risk Strategic/corporate: commercial, financial, political, environmental, strategic, cultural, acquisition and quality risks. Programme: procurement/acquisition, funding, organisational, projects, security, safety, quality and business continuity risks. Project: personal, technical, cost, schedule, resource, operational support, quality and provider failure Operations: personal, technical, cost, schedule, resource, operational support, quality, provider failure, environmental and infrastructure failure.
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 37 Risk QuantificationRisk Quantification Risks can be given a measure. One way of doing this this is to consider risks in terms of Likelihood, Severity and Proximity For example: High = 10 Medium = 5 Low = 1 High L x High S x High P = 1000 Fix this NOW! Medium L x Medium S x Medium P = 125 Monitor and track
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 38 Evaluating RiskEvaluating Risk Proximity is important – do not wait until the risk is imminent before planning action All risks have a potential cost Investment risks in a business case are not necessarily the same as project risks in a risk register Risk profiles can dramatically change option ranking
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 39 Risk ManagementRisk Management • Consult early • Avoid irreversible decisions • Carry out pilot studies • Build in flexibility • Take precautionary actions • Transfer risk through contractual arrangements (eg insurance) • Develop less risky options- e.g. use less cutting edge technology • Reinstate or develop different options • Abandon the project if it starts showing signs of being too risky
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 40 Options analysisOptions analysis Analysis and ranking of options is a combination of impacts (positive or negative) of costs, benefits and risks Quantitative evaluation – all costs and quantifiable benefits Qualitative evaluation – risks and non-quantifiable benefits Each option gets a rank for quantitative, risk and non- quantifiable benefits – generally of equal weight Final rank totals identify the preferred option
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 41 Sensitivity AnalysisSensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Sensitivity analysis is used to test the vulnerability of options to risks identified in the business case and potential variability of costs and benefits. Consider HS2 (and HS3) …….. Level of analysis needs to be appropriate to case being considered Purpose is to evaluate at what point the preferred option changes What needs to happen in terms of failure to realise benefits, costs rising or risks occurring before your preferred solution is no longer the best approach?
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 42 Financial analysisFinancial analysis Affordability – whole life Detailed attention is given to this once the preferred option has been identified and we require sign off. Produce estimates of the whole cost of the project, programme or business initiative. Include the costs that will be carried by the customer organisation (if applicable) as well as those that will be charged by providers. If possible identify any possibility for cost sharing with the customer and/or delivery areas or those who benefiting from the project, programme or initiative.
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 43 Provide a Cost Breakdown Analysis with details of: The expected costs; (Initial Investment – Ongoing Investment – Decommissioning Cost) Distinguish between different costs (i.e. Capital Costs, Non-capital costs etc) When they will occur; Who will pay for each cost; and Any required contingency funding. Financial analysisFinancial analysis Affordability – cash flow
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 44 Financial analysisFinancial analysis Affordability – cash flow As we move along the business case process more detail is required Strategic Outline Full High level figures Further breakdown Full details of cash flow
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 45 Funding AnalysisFunding Analysis Assessment of affordability and available funding. Links proposed expenditure to available budget and existing commitments. Minimum content for this section: statement of available funding and broad estimates of projected whole-life cost of project, including departmental costs (where applicable). Questions you must address: Can the required budget be obtained to deliver the whole project? If not, can the scope be reduced or project reconfigured in the light of available resources? (Revisit other options if necessary) Could funding be sought from other sources? e.g. OGDs, private sector etc.
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 46 Commercial AnalysisCommercial Analysis Delivery strategy This is about making it happen. Who will do it, how will they do it. Can they do it – risks. Need a view on delivery in resources terms and procurement strategy A) Do yourself B) Get somebody else ( delivery agents) Assess the viability of delivery shown in the business case consider – timescales , resources, skills What do we need to do to make in happen in practice.
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 47 Commercial AnalysisCommercial Analysis Procurement strategy Is there a need to buy goods and/or services? • What is your knowledge of existing contracts with potential suppliers / contractors? • Does the potential value exceed the thresholds set out in the EC Procurement Directives? • What will be your approach to the market? • Any particular legal and/ or contracting issues? • How will you manage your contractor’s performance and quality?
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 48 Management AnalysisManagement Analysis Governance of the investment Check whether key roles and responsibilities have been defined : • Who will be responsible for making the investment decision (typically the SRO in consultation with DG/Ministers/ HM Treasury if a project or programme); • The Senior Responsible Owner (SRO) as the named individual who will be personally accountable for the success of the programme/ project (if applicable); • The delivery team (programme/ project manager (if applicable); • The main stakeholders; • Key members of the programme/ project board, where applicable; and, • Other essential roles as required. • Also Identify the required resources (human) required and any specific skills requirements e.g. Legal, Procurement, PPM etc.
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 49 Management AnalysisManagement Analysis Communications plan Include key messages to stakeholders • Why are you communicating the message? • Who do you want to communicate with? • What do you want to communicate? • When should you communicate your message? • How should the message be communicated? • Which feedback channels should be used to develop understanding? • Know what you want to achieve from the communications process • Consider all messages from the other party’s frame of reference • Select the right combination of media and message for each audience • Take ownership of the two-way communications process • Ensure you have some active feedback mechanism in place to verify understanding
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 50 Management AnalysisManagement Analysis Implementation plan - FBC Questions you must address: Can this project be achieved with the organisation’s current capability and capacity? If not, how can the required capability be acquired? Can the risks be managed – e.g. scale, complexity, uncertainty? Does the scope or timescale need to change? Is the detail there , supported by evidence?
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 51 Management AnalysisManagement Analysis Risk management Have a full range of strategies been considered? 4Ts Transfer the risk to a 3rd party best placed to manage it, for example, taking out an insurance policy. However, some risks cannot be transferred at all, for example “reputational” risk. Tolerate the risk? Basically the “do nothing” option, which means the programme will use existing management arrangements to handle any results of the risk happening, typically these are “low-impact” risks Terminate the risk by adjusting the programme in some way such that the risk no longer applies. For example, de-scoping the programme to remove activities which would lead to a particular risk being identified Treat the risk by implementing actions that address either the probability or impact of the risk and so contain it to an acceptable level.
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 52 Management AnalysisManagement Analysis Benefits realisation planning - FBC Is the Benefits Management Strategy fully integrated into the programme plan? Are the potential benefits clearly identified? Is there a clear plan to manage the delivery of those potential benefits? Does this consider the full time horizon for the project ie during implementation and beyond – as most benefits are realised after project closure Are the benefits understood across the business?
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 53 Management AnalysisManagement Analysis The business case review cycle- a living document The following questions are explored at each stage of case development: strategic fit – how well does the proposed way of meeting the requirement support the organisation’s objectives and current priorities? Does the scope need to change? options – has a wide range been explored, including innovation and/or collaboration with others? achievability – can this project be achieved with the organisation’s current capability and capacity (such as other projects with a high priority that must be delivered at the same time)? value for money – can this be obtained from proposed sources of supply such as current suppliers? Does the project need to be made attractive to a wider market? affordability – is the budget available to deliver what is required? If not, can the scope be reduced or delivery extended over a longer period of time; or funding sought from other sources?
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 54 Management AnalysisManagement Analysis The business case review cycle When should you update the business case?
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 55 Check ListCheck List • Consider update prior to each project board meeting (Project Board needs to ask the question does the business case still stack up?) • As assumptions/risks/costs/benefits change • Prior to Gateway reviews
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 56 Have I missed anything?Have I missed anything? • Further explanation required • Discussion
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 57 CloseClose Your learning outcomes and questions
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 58 Implementation Check List- Annex AImplementation Check List- Annex A Questions you must address: Can this project be achieved with the organisation’s current capability and capacity? If not, how can the required capability be acquired? Can the risks be managed – e.g. scale, complexity, uncertainty? Does the scope or timescale need to change? Is the detail there?
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 59 Benefits Check List - BBenefits Check List - B Is the Benefits Management Strategy fully integrated into the programme plan? Is there evidence of active management of the potential benefits? Are the potential benefits clearly identified? Is there a clear plan to manage the delivery of those potential benefits? Are the benefits understood across the business?
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 60 5. Benefit Realisation 4 . Monitoring and Optimising Project Value 3 . Benefit Planning Reviewing and Reporting Project Close Project Go Live Build & Test Project Design Project Definition Project Viability Project Value 1. Identification & Mapping 2. Benefit Profiling 6. Benefit Review Value Proposition Outline Business Case Full Business Case Project Closure Report Post - Implementation Review Benefits Map Benefit Profiles Benefit Realisation Plan Benefit Reports and Reviews Benefit Handover Report OGC Gate 5 Feeding into Programme level plans and products Detailed Benefits Management Approach High Level Benefits Management Stages Definition and Collection of Benefits Benefits Measurement and Tracking Benefits Realisation
  • Developing business cases © Farthing Consulting LTD Page 61 This presentation was delivered at an APM event To find out more about upcoming events please visit our website www.apm.org.uk/events