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America looks to 2024 key findings deck final june 30 2014
 

America looks to 2024 key findings deck final june 30 2014

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  • Q15-17 – showing All, Dem, Rep
  • Q15-17 – showing All, Dem, Rep
  • Slide 101 - However, nearly ⅔ (60%) of parents believe that their children will be better off than they were at the same age. <br /> Males and younger adults are most likely to have this sentiment (72%, 72%). <br />
  • g36mB – showing All point for made progress vs gone backward
  • Q18 <br />
  • Q19 showing ALL <br /> Other data points: <br /> <br /> Q19 Fewer than half (44%) of Americans think America will be considered a superpower in 2024 <br /> Q19 Over ⅔ (68%) of Americans think China will be a superpower in 2024. <br /> Highest among those making more than $75k/yr (79%), lowest among Democrats (60%) <br /> Q19- About as many Americans think Russia will be a superpower as think America will be a superpower (43% for Russia, 44% for America) <br /> More people age 30-44 think Russia will be a superpower than think America will be (51% vs 43%) <br />
  • Q26
  • Q27-29mA, showing yes, All <br /> For Millennials- Russia at44%, Iran at 46% <br /> Republicans – Iran at 55% <br /> Democrats – Iran at 44%
  • Q58/59
  • Q54/55 – showing more effective
  • g36mB – showing All point for made progress vs gone backward
  • Less privacy = bad thing <br /> Slide 37 - (Among All) 77% say less privacy in 2024 and 58% say it will be a bad thing in 2024
  • Republicans are three times as likely as Democrats to say the economy is on the wrong track <br />
  • Slide 31 - (Among All) 67% say a female president is likely to have been elected by 2024, followed by an African American president (other than Obama) at 32% and a Hispanic president at 31% <br /> Among Democrats this is even higher at 78% saying a female president is likely to have been elected
  • Republicans are three times as likely as Democrats to say the economy is on the wrong track <br />
  • Keep <br /> -Marriage less common <br /> Slide 47 -  (Among All) 56% say marriage will be less common and 63% say divorce will be more common by 2024

America looks to 2024 key findings deck final june 30 2014 America looks to 2024 key findings deck final june 30 2014 Presentation Transcript

  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Imagining 2024 1 America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey Key Findings
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 What we did 2  Penn Schoen Berland, working with Burson-Marsteller, conducted 2,001 online interviews with the United States general population from May 28-31, 2014.  The overall margin of error is ± 2.19%  The data presented in this study are reflective of U.S. Census Bureau demographic statistics in terms of gender, age, ethnicity, income and political party.
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 What we learned Two wars overseas. The Great Recession. George W. Bush. Barack Obama. The Tea Party. Obamacare. Gay marriage. NSA surveillance. Americans have experienced an incredible amount of change over the past 10 years. What we’ve learned is that they are bracing for more change in the next 10 years. Normally certain about America’s economic strength and place in the world but uncertain on social issues, Americans foresee a future in which the country’s strength is in doubt but there is unity on social issues. 3
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The key takeaways Americans are highly uncertain about the country’s strength in 10 years.  The Economy – We are moving from an “Age of Possibility” to an “Age of Impossibility,” with few saying the U.S. will be the “Land of Opportunity” in 10 years, and many envisioning a country where it is harder to get ahead and harder to get a good education.  Our Role in the World – America as “The Indispensable Nation” will become “A More Dispensable Nation,” predicting China, not the U.S., will lead the world in 10 years.  Politics and Government – The future of our ability to govern ourselves is in doubt, with low optimism about our ability to have effective government with regard to economic issues and key services, such as healthcare and education. Meanwhile, there is increasing certainty on the shape of society.  The Social Fabric – A new social issue consensus is emerging, with debates around issues like same- sex marriage, legalizing marijuana and climate change on the way toward being resolved.  Technology – The United States of Technology is a bright spot in our future, envisioning technology surrounding us and improving our lives with tech entrepreneurs becoming the country’s real leaders. And Americans have interesting views on The Way We Will Live, envisioning greater connection to religious institutions, fewer Americans entering the institution of marriage and less time spent on the roads. 4
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Imagining 2024: We are moving from an “Age of Possibility” to an “Age of Impossibility” 5
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 65 percent of Americans are not convinced the U.S. will be on the right track in 10 years 28% 37% 35% Right Track Don't Know Wrong Direction 6 AMERICA’S PATH Do you think the United States will be on the right track or headed in the wrong direction in 10 years? ALL
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Two-thirds do not say America will be considered the “land of opportunity” in 10 years 7 LAND OF OPPORTUNITY IN 10 YEARS Do you think America will be considered the "land of opportunity" in 10 years? YES NO DON’T KNOW 33% 42% 24% ALL
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 23% 49%16% 21% 61% 30% More likely to get ahead Don't Know Less likely to get ahead 7 in 10 Americans are not certain that, in 10 years, working hard and playing by the rules will bring success 8 IN 10 YEARS HARD WORK AND PLAYING BY RULES IN 10 YEARS Ten years ago, do you think that people who worked hard and played by the rules were more or less likely to get ahead? In 10 years, do you think that people who work hard and play by the rules will be more or less likely to get ahead? 10 YEARS AGO ALLALL
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Hispanics, African-Americans are significantly more likely than white Americans to foresee opportunity in 10 years 9 29% 45% 47% White African-American Hispanic AMERICA WILL BE LAND OF OPPORTUNITY IN 10 YEARS Do you think America will be considered the "land of opportunity" in 10 years? Showing “Yes” 24% 44% 49% White African-American Hispanic MORE LIKELY TO GET AHEAD WITH HARD WORK/PLAYING BY RULES IN 10 YEARS In 10 years, do you think that people who work hard and play by the rules will be more or less likely to get ahead? Showing “More likely”
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Two-thirds say income inequality will grow over the next 10 years 10 WEALTH GAP IN 10 YEARS Do you think that the gap between the rich and poor will grow or shrink in the United States over the next 10 years? 16% 18% 66%Grow Don't Know Shrink ALL • Age 65+: 79% say Grow • Millennials: 59% say Grow
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 47% 22% 31% Better Don't Know Worse Most do not say public schools or the performance of American students will get better in 10 years 11 MATH AND SCIENCE RANK IN 2024 U.S. students are currently ranked 31st in math and 24th in science when compared to 65 other top industrial countries. Do you expect the U.S. to rank higher or lower in these areas in 10 years? PUBLIC SCHOOL SYSTEM IN 2024 Ten years from now, do you expect the American public school system to be better or worse than it is today? 44% 24% 32% Higher Don't Know Lower • Millennials: 24% say Higher • Age 65+: 41% say Higher • African-Americans: 44% say Better ALL ALL
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Americans tend to say private schools are the best option for children and will be in 10 years as well 12 23% 17% 10% 11% 32% 33% 16% 18%19% 21% Public school Charter school Private school Home schooling Don't know SCHOOL OPTIONS TODAY AND IN 10 YEARS In your opinion, what do you think is the best option for school-aged children in America today? In ten years, what do you think will be the best option for school-aged children in America? • Income > $75k: 41% say Private • Income <$35k: 31% say Don’t know IN 10 YEARS10 YEARS AGOALL ALL
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 29% 50% 20% Yes No Don't know Most think college will be more important in the future, but only 29 percent of parents say they will be able to afford it 13 IMPORTANCE OF COLLEGE DEGREE IN 10 YEARS IF PARENTS: Do you think it will be more important, less important or no more or less important for your children to have a college degree in 10 years than it was for you? COLLEGE AFFORDABILITY IN 10 YEARS IF PARENTS: By the time they go to college, do you think you will be able to afford your children’s college education? ALL 56% 26% 7% 11% ALL More Important No More or Less Important Less Important Don't Know
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Most parents foresee a tough job market for their children in 10 years 14 EASE OF FINDING JOBS FOR CHILDREN IN 10 YEARS IF PARENTS: In 10 years, will it be easy or difficult for your children to find good jobs? 9% 16% 38% 26% 10% Very easy Somewhat easy Somewhat difficult Very difficult Don't know ALL
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 60%21% 18% Yes No Don't know Despite a negative economic outlook, 6 in 10 parents express optimism about their children’s well-being 15 CHILDREN BETTER OFF IN 10 YEARS THAN PARENTS WERE AT SAME AGE IF PARENTS: In 10 years, do you think your children will be better off than you were at their age? ALL
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 44% 31% 18% 54% 41% 52% 45% 49% 72% 50% Better off financially On path to affording retirement Afford children's college education Children better off than parents were Afford regular vacations Women Men Women have a more pessimistic view of their personal and household finances than men do 16 VIEWS BY GENDER: IN 10 YEARS… QUESTIONS SHOWN: • In 10 years, do you expect to be better off or worse off financially than you are today? Showing “Better off” • In 10 years, do you think you will be on a path to affording retirement? Showing “Yes” • By the time they go to college, do you think you will be able to afford your children’s college education? Showing “Yes” • IF PARENT: In 10 years, do you think your children will be better off than you were at their age? Showing “Yes” • In 10 years, do you think you will be able to afford to go on regular vacations? Showing “Yes”
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Imagining 2024: America as “The Indispensable Nation” will become “A More Dispensable Nation” 17
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Only 3 in 10 envision America’s global standing being on the rise in 10 years 18 AMERICA’S GLOBAL STANDING IN 10 YEARS Do you think America’s global standing will be on the rise or in decline in 10 years? 30% 43% 26% On the Rise In Decline Don't Know ALL
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 68% 44% 43% 21% 13% 9% 9% China U.S. Russia Japan UK Germany India ALL Most think China – not the U.S. – will be a superpower in 10 years 19 SUPERPOWERS IN 2024 Which countries do you think will be considered “superpowers” in 10 years? Please name as many countries as you think apply. • Income of >$75k: 79% say China
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 A majority believe China will be the world’s biggest economic force in 10 years 20 TOP GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCE IN 10 YEARS Which country do you think will be the world’s biggest economic force in 10 years? 20% 53% U.S. China ALL • Income of >$75k: 63% say China • Income of <$35k: 49% say China
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Only 22 percent say there will be more peace around the world in 10 years 21 22% 55% 23% More peace Less peace Don't know ALL WORLD PEACE IN 10 YEARS In 10 years, do you think there will be more or less peace around the world than there is today? • Millennials: 28% say More peace • Age 65+: 15% say More peace • Democrats: 27% say More peace • Republicans: 14% say More peace
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Almost half foresee the U.S. having engaged in armed conflict with Iran by 2024 22 ARMED CONFLICT WITH THE U.S. IN 10 YEARS In the next 10 years, do you think the United States will have engaged in armed conflict with any of the following countries? 45% 31% 19% Iran Russia China ALL (Showing yes) • Millennials: 44% say Russia, 25% say China • Age 65+: 7% say Russia, 6% say China
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Imagining 2024: The future of our ability to govern ourselves is in deep doubt 23
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Two-thirds are not convinced Americans will be more unified in 10 years 24 More unified 49%Less unified 32% Don't know 19% More unified Less unified Don't know UNITY 10 YEARS AGO Do you think Americans were more or less unified as a people 10 years ago than we are today? More unified 33% Less unified 41% Don't know 26% More unified Less unified Don't know UNITY IN 10 YEARS Do you think Americans will be more or less unified as a people in 10 years than we are today? ALL ALL
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 A majority think government will be bigger in 10 years, but most do not say it will be more effective 25 EFFECTIVENESS OF GOVERNMENT IN 10 YEARS Do you think the American government will be more or less effective in 10 years than it is now? 35% 33% 32% More Effective Don't Know Less Effective ALL 18% 29% 54% Bigger Don't Know Smaller SIZE OF GOVERNMENT IN 10 YEARS Do you think the size of government will be bigger or smaller in 10 years than it is today? ALL
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 21% 16% 18% 15% 32% 34% 36% 37% 41% 37% 35% 35% 34% 29% 21% 20% 18% 17% Federal budget/national debt Rising costs of college education Traditional family values Taxes Health care Defense and national security Homeland security and terrorism Energy independence Alternative energy sources Made progress Gone backward Americans tend to foresee moving forward on energy and security, moving backward on taxes and the cost of college 26 PROGRESS/REGRESSION ON ISSUES IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS When it comes to addressing each of the following issues, do you think that the United States will have made progress, will have gone backward or will there have been no change in the next 10 years? Top Four: Made progress Bottom Four: Gone backward In the middle ALL
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Most believe Obamacare will either look very different or cease to exist by 2024 27 STATUS OF OBAMACARE IN 10 YEARS What do you think the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, will be like in 10 years? 18% 35% 32% 15% It will exist with only minor changes It will exist but with major changes It will no longer exist Don't know ALL • Republicans: 46% say No longer exist • Democrats: 23% say No longer exist
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Americans are more likely to think we will have a government-run health care system than a private one 28 GOVERNMENT VS. PRIVATE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM IN 10 YEARS In 10 years, do you think the United States will have a national health care program supplied to everyone by the government instead of a private health care system? 38% 27% 36% National health care Private health care Don't know ALL
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Most believe they will have less privacy from the government in ten years and view that as bad for society 29 PRIVACY FROM U.S. GOVERNMENT In ten years, do you expect to have more or less privacy from the U.S. government than you do today? 10% 77% 13% More privacy Less privacy Don't know ALL 20% 58% 22% Good thing Bad thing Don't know ALL GOOD OR BAD FOR SOCIETY? Overall, will that be a good thing for our society or a bad thing?
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Most think there will be more gun violence in the next ten years – as well as more gun laws 30 GUN VIOLENCE IN TEN YEARS Do you think there will be more or less gun violence in America in ten years than there is now? (Showing All) 58% 18% 23% More gun violence Less gun violence Don't know GUN CONTROL LAWS IN TEN YEARS Do you think there will be more or fewer gun control laws in the United States in ten years? (Showing All) 58% 20% 22% More gun laws Fewer gun laws Don't know
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Imagining 2024: A new social issue consensus is emerging 31
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 32 73% 15% 12% Yes No Don't know SAME SEX MARRIAGE IN 10 YEARS In 10 years, do you think same sex marriage will be legal in the majority of U.S. states? Overwhelming majorities believe same-sex marriage and marijuana will be legal in most states in 10 years MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION IN 10 YEARS In 10 years, do you think marijuana will be legal in the majority of U.S. states? 66% 21% 13% Yes No Don't know Millennials: • 66% say Yes on same sex marriage • 57% say Yes on marijuana ALL ALL
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Most expect climate change to affect them more in 10 years 33 AFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN 10 YEARS In 10 years, do you think the effects of climate change will affect you more or less than they do today? 54% 20% 26% Will affect me more Will affect me less Don't know ALL 75% 72% 63% 60% 50% 46% 43% 3% Extreme temperatures More severe storms Severe droughts Melting polar ice caps Food shortages Extinction of species, such as polar bears Coastal communities under water Don't know ALL MOST OBVIOUS EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN 10 YEARS Which of the effects of climate change will be more obvious in 10 years?
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 34 FEWER CHILDREN IN 10 YEARS Do you think Americans will be having fewer children 10 years from now than they are having today? A majority envision a weakening of the traditional family unit in 10 years 54% 27% 19% ALL Yes No Don't know 21% 54% 25% ALL Better Worse Don't know RAISING CHILDREN IN 10 YEARS Do you think children in the United States will be raised better or worse in 10 years than they are now? • Millennials: 39% say Yes • Age 65+: 68% say Yes
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 35 FUTURE U.S. PRESIDENTS Ten years from now, do you think the United States will have elected the following? 67% 31% 30% 14% A female president A Hispanic president An African-American president A gay president ALL (Showing yes) Two-thirds think a female president will be elected in the next 10 years • Millennials: 39% say African-American • Generation X: 38% say African-American • Baby Boomers: 23% say African-American • Age 65+: 22% say African-American
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Imagining 2024: The United States of Technology is in our future 36
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 A majority believe technology has made their lives better and will continue to do so in 10 years 37 63% 60% 16% 16%21% 24% Better Worse Don't Know TECHNOLOGY’S IMPACT ON LIFE Since 2004, have personal technology advancements made your life better or worse? In 10 years, do you think that advancements in technology, such as phones, computers, TVs and music players, will make your life better or worse than it is today? ALL IN 10 YEARSSINCE 2004
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Tech entrepreneurs are most likely to be considered the future leaders of our society 38 44% 37% 34% 23% 20% 16% 22% Technology entrepreneurs Political figures Business leaders Celebrities Philanthropic leaders Athletes None of the above ALL LEADERS IN SOCIETY IN 10 YEARS In 10 years, which groups of people will be considered leaders in our society? Please choose any that apply. • Age 65+: 53% say Tech entrepreneurs • Millennials: 33% say Tech entrepreneurs
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Americans are equally likely to say they will prefer communicating face-to-face and via technology in ten years 39 63% 41% 29% 44% 9% 15% Face-to-face Via technoogy Don't Know ALL PREFERRED METHOD OF COMMUNICATION Which method of communication do you prefer today? Ten years from now, do you think you will opt to communicate face-to-face or via technology when given the choice? TEN YEARS FROM NOWTODAY Millennials today • 48% say Face-to-face • 38% say Via technology Millennials 10 years from now • 41% say Face-to-face • 41% say Via technology
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Most foresee technology surrounding them in 10 years 40 WIDESPREAD USAGE OF TECHNOLOGY IN 10 YEARS Do you think the following technology will be widely used in 10 years? 59% 70% 60% 23% 14% 20%18% 16% 20% Robots Drones Medicine capable of monitoring and reporting changes in the body Yes No Don't Know ALL
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Most Americans expect companies to collect more information in ten years and think that will be a bad thing 41 INFORMATION COLLECTION BY PRIVATE COMPANY IN TEN YEARS In ten years, do you expect private companies to collect more or less information about you than they do today? 73% 12% 15% More information Less information Don't know ALL 18% 56% 26% Good thing Bad thing Don't know ALL GOOD OR BAD FOR SOCIETY? Overall, will that be a good thing for our society or a bad thing? • Age 65+: 83% say More information • Millennials: 54% say More information
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Most do not say social media will make their lives better in the next decade 42 41% 36% 24% 26% 35% 38% Better Worse Don't knowALL EFFECT OF SOCIAL MEDIA ON LIFE In 2004, Facebook had just been created, and the term "social media" had not been coined. Has social media made your life better or worse in the past ten years? Do you think that social media will make your life better or worse in the next decade? IN NEXT DECADEPAST 10 YEARS
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 More than half are not convinced they will subscribe to a live TV service in 10 years 43 45% 26% 29% Live TV service Exclusively streaming TV shows on-demand Don't know TV SERVICE IN TEN YEARS In ten years, do you think you will have a live TV service (such as cable or satellite) or will you have canceled your live TV service in favor of exclusively streaming TV shows on-demand (through companies such as Netflix and Amazon)? ALL
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 44 Imagining 2024: The way we will live
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 A majority expect to attend religious services more frequently in 10 years 45 *Reduced base sizes 19% 34% 38% 8% ALL Frequently At least sometimes Never Don't know 52% 22% 26% IF ATTEND More frequently Less frequently Don't know CURRENT RELIGIOUS SERVICES ATTENDANCE Do you currently attend religious services frequently, at least sometimes or never? RELIGIOUS SERVICES ATTENDANCE IN 10 YEARS IF ATTEND: In ten years, do you expect to attend religious services more frequently or less frequently than you do now?
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 46 22% 56% 22% More common Less common Don't know MARRIAGE 10 YEARS FROM NOW Do you think marriage in the United States will be more or less common ten years from now than it is today? DIVORCE 10 YEARS FROM NOW Do you think divorce in the United States will be more or less common ten years from now than it is today? 63% 15% 22% More common Less common Don't know A majority think marriage will be less common 10 years from now and divorce will be more common ALL ALL
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 A vast majority say they have a car now and think they and their children will have a car in 10 years 47 77% 75% 72% 23% 14% 15%11% 14% Yes No Don't Know *Reduced base sizes ALL CAR OWNERSHIP Do you currently own a car? In ten years, do you think you will own a car? IF PARENT: In ten years, do you think all of your children of driving age will choose to own and drive a car? IN TEN YEARSCURRENTLY CHILDREN, IN TEN YEARS
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Almost half think they will be driving less frequently in ten years 48 27% 45% 28% ALL More frequently Less frequently Don't know FREQUENCY OF DRIVING IN 10 YEARS Do you think you will drive more or less frequently in ten years than you do today? • Millennials: 25% say Less frequently • Generation X: 33% say Less frequently • Baby Boomers: 52% say Less frequently • Age 65+: 79% say Less frequently
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 20 percent expect to buy an electric car in ten years, and 69 percent expect gas prices to rise by more than $2 per gallon 49 20% 69% 47% 14% 33% 17% Yes No Don't Know ALL ELECTRIC CAR IN 10 YEARS In ten years, will you have bought an electric car? GAS PRICE INCREASE OF MORE THAN $2 PER GALLON IN 10 YEARS In ten years, do you think gas prices per gallon will have increased by more than $2?
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Almost half think airline delays will be longer in 10 years than they are today 50 47% 21% 32% ALL Longer Shorter Don't know AIRLINE DELAYS IN 10 YEARS In ten years, do you think airline delays will be longer or shorter than they are today?
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Half say they weighed less 10 years ago and nearly half say they will weigh less in 10 years 51 32% 19% 50% 49% 17% 31% More Less Don't know *Reduced base sizes ALL WEIGHT 10 YEARS AGO AND IN 10 YEARS Ten years ago, did you weigh more or less than you do today? In ten years, do you expect to weigh more or less than you do today? IN 10 YEARSTEN YEARS AGO
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 More say they will read printed books than printed newspapers or magazines 10 years from now 52 36% 50% 46% 37% 18% 13% Yes No Don't know BOOKSNEWSPAPERS/MAGAZINES READING PRINTED NEWSPAPERS/MAGAZINES AND BOOKS IN 10 YEARS Ten years from now, do you think you will be reading any newspapers or magazines printed on paper? Ten years from now, do you think you will be reading any books printed on paper? ALL ALL
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Football, Basketball, Baseball and Soccer are the sports Americans most expect to be more popular in 10 years 15% 22% 25% 24% 32% 29% 34% 39% 34% 38% 43% 27% 31% 30% 30% 31% 35% 34% 33% 37% 35% 40% 58% 47% 46% 46% 37% 36% 33% 29% 29% 27% 17% More popular Don't know Less popular 53 POPULARITY OF SPORTS 10 YEARS FROM NOW Ten years from now, do you think each of these sports will be more popular or less popular in the United States than it is today? (Multiple Responses Permitted) ALL
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Americans are more likely to say they will go to the movies less instead of more in ten years 54 11% 46% 27% 16% More frequently Same amount Less frequently Don't know MOVIE GOING IN 10 YEARS In ten years, do you think you will go to the movies more frequently, less frequently or about the same amount as you do currently? ALL
  • The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 Most think The Simpsons will no longer be on the air in ten years 55 36% 64% Yes No THE SIMPSONS STILL ON TV 10 YEARS FROM NOW? Ten years from now, do you think The Simpsons will still be on TV? • Millennials: 51% say Yes ALL