Internet Past, Present and Future by Gordon Bell Y esterday, Today & Tomorrow (Internet 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0) It’s Bandwidth,...
Growth in users? 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Internet growth extra...
Three nets: research, public, and private Intranets Bandwidth and capacity is available, its both money and some real tech...
<ul><li>Internet 1.0  aka ARPAnet goals:  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>rlogin; load, program, and  data sharing </li></ul></ul><u...
<ul><li>I nternet 2.0  aka NREN aka NII aka GII goals: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>provide high bandwidth for  </li></ul></ul><u...
single, high speed, universal dial tone for high speed, symmetrical links that carry  all  bits  fungible bits: phone, vid...
<ul><li>Working, shopping, learning, playing, and info gathering are  all  working… the market is clear </li></ul><ul><ul>...
<ul><li>Within the home: Home NETS </li></ul><ul><ul><li>telephony: 128 Kbps (can carry 2 Mbps) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li...
<ul><li>Very high “Sunk” cost of copper and fiber:  holes in the ground, Copper,  and fiber are paid for! </li></ul><ul><l...
<ul><li>Telephony: time,distance and bandwidth cost model,  but subscribers have paid for the “sunk” costs!  </li></ul><ul...
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Gbell Ra

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Gbell Ra

  1. 1. Internet Past, Present and Future by Gordon Bell Y esterday, Today & Tomorrow (Internet 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0) It’s Bandwidth, Quality of Service, and Symmetry! Or how the net takes over telephony and television... Gordon Bell is a senior researcher in Microsoft's Telepresence Research Group - a part of the Bay Area Research Center (BARC) and a computer-consultant-at-large.
  2. 2. Growth in users? 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Internet growth extrapolated @98% World population @1.6%
  3. 3. Three nets: research, public, and private Intranets Bandwidth and capacity is available, its both money and some real technical problems NO reason to fail… technical solutions exist to make it work successfully Intranets won’t fail: companies buy capacity Government won’t let it fail… it’s too embarrassing Why Internet will not collapse… any brownouts will help make it right
  4. 4. <ul><li>Internet 1.0 aka ARPAnet goals: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>rlogin; load, program, and data sharing </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Got: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>rlogin, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>mail, plus as a service carrier.... </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>bbs/news/chat/muds/moos </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ftp, and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>rpc to enable network computing </li></ul></ul>History: Story of Serendipity
  5. 5. <ul><li>I nternet 2.0 aka NREN aka NII aka GII goals: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>provide high bandwidth for </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>access to supers & common facilities, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>visualization, images and video </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Got: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>WWW, HTML, Gopher, and Mosaic. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hyper-text links, mousing, slow graphics vrml </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bill boards & catalogues to advertise </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bit warehouses for text, simple images, almost telephony, & RealAudio™ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CU SeeMe™ -- now they’ll know you’re a dog </li></ul></ul>Internet 2.0 (now)... serendipity
  6. 6. single, high speed, universal dial tone for high speed, symmetrical links that carry all bits fungible bits: phone, videophone, “radio” on demand, TV, datacom with its own 2 & 3d video bit serving warehouses for audio, images, 3D (x,y,t), and 4D (3D+z = VR) tele-stuff: work, science, education, … play scalable & symmetrical (anyone can serve) : 25 Mbps (not 0.01 -0.1) cost of 2x telephones (telephone + cable) replacement for telephony and cable! Internet 3.0 goals & vision (IP dial tone)
  7. 7. <ul><li>Working, shopping, learning, playing, and info gathering are all working… the market is clear </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Plain old servces are faster, more convenient, and cheaper (e.g. FedEx ® ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>It’s faster to find info than going to a library, or finding the person or book who knows </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Advertising is working (e.g. CNN ® ) and consumers are buying (e.g. L L Bean ® , United ® ) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Free phone calls are being made… undoing phone companies and eliminating PBXes </li></ul><ul><li>Phones evolve to videotelephony </li></ul><ul><li>Videotelephony evolves to televison… VOD </li></ul>Why Internet will grow… the price and functionality are right
  8. 8. <ul><li>Within the home: Home NETS </li></ul><ul><ul><li>telephony: 128 Kbps (can carry 2 Mbps) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>television: coax (can carry 1 Gbps) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>data networks: 100 Mbps Ethernet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>control nets: 100 Kbps twisted pair </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Home to the Central Office via the curb and neighborhood: Cu pair, Cu coax, minimal fiber </li></ul><ul><li>Central Office to NAPs: fiber </li></ul><ul><li>Backbone and Internet infrastructure: fiber </li></ul><ul><li>Internet: IP and TCP have to be overhauled </li></ul><ul><li>Servers: too few, too slow </li></ul>The top six bottlenecks?
  9. 9. <ul><li>Very high “Sunk” cost of copper and fiber: holes in the ground, Copper, and fiber are paid for! </li></ul><ul><li>Fiber evolves 100x with wave division multiplexing; 10 Gbps/wave length =>1 Tbps </li></ul><ul><li>Deploy private networks for corporate Intranets </li></ul><ul><li>Many competing options for the local loop “last mile”: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cu pair (telephony): can carry 10-20 Mbps vs 33Kbps </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cable TV fiber and Cu coax: carries n Gbps / 100 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fiber to the curb and home: will occur in time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Radio: LMDS and MMDS are possible for data </li></ul></ul><ul><li>ATM NOW has a complete protocol suite to deliver guaranteed bandwidth at low latency; applies to IP </li></ul><ul><li>Servers can be scaled… deploy more </li></ul><ul><li>Cache servers: help by eliminating network accesses </li></ul>Eliminating the bottlenecks... revolutionizes telephony
  10. 10. <ul><li>Telephony: time,distance and bandwidth cost model, but subscribers have paid for the “sunk” costs! </li></ul><ul><li>Data / television: always connected cost model </li></ul><ul><li>Internet traffic crosses over voice traffic in 2000 </li></ul><ul><li>“ Fixing” QoS (bandwidth & latency) implies ability to have very good audio and speech television </li></ul><ul><li>Telephony over Internet </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Distance independent pricing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Eliminates the need (cost) for telephony billing (15% of costs) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Eliminates PBX costs by having “telecomputer” for phone, videophone, and data access </li></ul></ul>Final considerations
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