Forecasting RX to OTC Potential for Leading Allergy Brand

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Summitry Worldwide (http://www.summitryworldwide.com) uses highly advanced mathematical/ statistical models for Forecasting and New Product Simulations. …

Summitry Worldwide (http://www.summitryworldwide.com) uses highly advanced mathematical/ statistical models for Forecasting and New Product Simulations.

We correctly predicted that an OTC Allergy medicine would become a Billion-Dollar Brand in Year 3 - identifying the correct levels of advertising, pricing and promotional levels.

Our software allowed for competitive gaming scenarios and market share impact leading to appropriate defense strategies.

More in: Data & Analytics
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  • 1. Management was seeking to transfer from Rx to OTC, its highly successful allergy brand Seldane, due to imminent patient expiration. In order to first understand the market potential of Seldane, we derived the Domain Structure (Situational Context) and Purchase-Based Market Structures of the Rx and OTC Upper Respiratory Ailment Market (Cold, Sinus, Allergy, Cough). In addition, we constructed the Need States/ Benefits, Brand Personality and Segmentation for a holistic understanding of the prospective Seldane consumer. Net, it was critical to transfer base Seldane to OTC, and introduce Seldane-D to retain Rx franchise. Our Eurekasm model forecasted that Seldane would become a $1 Billion dollar OTC business in three years. However, due to undesired side effects, the FDA did not approve the conversion. Although never released, the subsequent launch of Claritin (similar product to Seldane) validated the model, as the revenue was almost identical to our forecasts. Loved your work on Seldane. Your numbers are consistent with Benadryl’s transfer from Rx to OTC.” GEORGE QUESNELLE President, GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare MARKET POTENTIAL OF SELDANE NEVER REALIZED, BUT VALIDATED FIRST STEP IN RX -- > OTC TRANSFER : UNDERSTANDING YOUR FRAME OF REFERENCE RX TO OTC TRANSFER Goals Simulate the revenue/ volume potential of a Seldane RX conversion to OTC Eurekasm predicted by Year 3, Seldane had potential to obtain $1.1 Billion revenue – which was achieved by Claritin USA Results Market