Unit1a

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  • When we study Science, we look at it in different subject areas.
    Earth Science
    Biology
    Chemistry
    Physics
    Astronomy
    Meteorology
    Other specialty areas such as Quantum Physics and Computer Science
  • Just like with science, when we study technology we look at it in the following categories
    These forms of technology will be discussed throughout the presentation.
  • Discussions about technology life cycles and diffusion patterns may imply that technological change occurs naturally or automatically. Just the opposite; change is neither easy nor natural in organizations. In some cases, a new technology can completely change the rules of competition within an industry. Leading companies that respond ineffectively to technological opportunities can falter while new companies emerge as the dominant competitors. For example, Bill Gates’s shrewd decision to make the details of Microsoft’s operating system widely available let software writers easily develop products for it, helping Microsoft achieve its dominant position today. But industries seldom are transformed overnight. Typically, signals of a new technology’s impact are visible well in advance, leaving time for companies and people to respond. For example, almost any competitor in the telecommunications industry fully understands the potential value of cellular technology. Often the key issue is not whether to adopt a new technology but when to adopt it and how to integrate the change with the organization’s operating practices and strategies.
  • The adage “timing is everything” is applied to many things, ranging from financial investments to telling jokes. It also applies to the development and exploitation of new technologies. Industry leaders such as Xerox, 3M, Hewlett-Packard, and Merck built and now maintain their competitive positions through early development and application of new technologies. However, technology leadership imposes costs and risks, as this table shows, and it is not the best approach for every organization.
  • Unit1a

    1. 1. TECHNOLOGY  process by which humans modify nature to meet their needs and wants  relationship of society with its crafts and tools, and to extent to which society can control its environment  collection of techniques  application of science, maths and arts
    2. 2. Technology vs. Science Technology Science – Study of our human-made world – Study of our natural world – Deals with “what can be” – Deals with “what is”
    3. 3. How Does Technology Address Human Needs and Wants? Information Communication Bio-Related and Agriculture Medical Environmental Technology Manufacturing & Construction Transportation Energy and Power Nanotechnology
    4. 4. What Counts as Technology?
    5. 5. • Throughout the twentieth century the uses of the term have increased to the point where it now encompasses a number of “classes” of technology:
    6. 6. • 1. Technology as Objects: Tools, machines, instruments, weapons, appliances - the physical devices of technical performance • 2. Technology as Knowledge: The know-how behind technological innovation • 3. Technology as Activities: What people do - their skills, methods, procedures, routines • 4. Technology as a Process: Begins with a need and ends with a solution • 5. Technology as a Sociotechnical System: The manufacture and use of objects involving people and other objects in combination
    7. 7. The Nature of Technology • Technology has a number of distinct characteristics: • 1. It is Related to Science? Although there is certainly a relationship between science and technology, there is, except in certain high technology industries, very little technology that could be classified as applied science. Technology is marked by different purposes, different processes a different relationship to established knowledge and a particular relationship to specific contexts of activity. Change in the material environment is the explicit purpose of technology, and not, as is the case with science, the understanding of nature; accordingly its solutions are not right or wrong, verifiable or falsifiable, but more or less effective from different points of view.
    8. 8. • 2. It Involves Design At the centre of technology lies design. That “design is the very core of engineering” is affirmed by the requirement that all degree engineering courses should embody it. The design process in technology is a sequential process which begins with the perception of a need, continues with the formulation of a specification, the generation of ideas and a final solution, and ends with an evaluation of the solution.
    9. 9. • 3. It Involves Making The motivating factor behind all technological activity is the desire to fulfil a need. For this reason all designs should be made or realised whether that be through prototype, batch- or mass- production or some form of threedimensional or computer model - if the need is to be truly fulfilled, the design is to be legitimately evaluated, and the design activity is to have been purposeful and worthwhile.
    10. 10. • 4. It is Multi-Dimensional Not only may design and production involve co-operation between different specialisms (between, for example, designer, production engineer and materials scientist), but may involve “technologists” in performing a multitude of functions, such as working with others, operating within budgets, persuading decision makers, communicating to clients and working to deadlines.
    11. 11. • 5. It Is Concerned With Values Technology is informed by values at every point. Value decisions may be called for not only in relation to the specific design criteria (i.e. aesthetic, ergonomic and economic judgements, suitability for purpose and ease of manufacture) but also in relation to the rightness or wrongness of a particular solution in ethical terms.
    12. 12. • 6. It is Socially Shaped/Shaping Technological enterprises are determined not by advances in knowledge nor simply by the identification of needs, but by social interests. Of the potential new technologies available at any one time only a few are developed and become widely implemented. In this way technology is shaped by society, by consumer choice. yet it could also be argued that technology shapes society - the technology of the motor car, for example, has shaped our environment and our whole way of life.
    13. 13. MANAGEMENT  Art of getting people together to accomplish desired goals.  Management comprises Planning Organizing Staffing Directing controlling  Manages deployment and manipulation of human resources, financial resources, technological resources and natural resources
    14. 14. Management of Technology  An integrated application of engineering, science and management capabilities.  Process of MOT includes Identification of technologies, Selecting , Procurement, Assimilation, Exploitation of technologies for production of goods and services.
    15. 15. TM depends upon… • Leadership • Motivation of employees • Appropriate management of technology Goal is to create synergy among all factors
    16. 16. Managerial Functions of TM
    17. 17. Managerial Functions of TMs
    18. 18. • GLOBAL TRENDS IN TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT
    19. 19. TECHNOLOGY CHANGES IN TRANSPORTATION SECTOR DMRC
    20. 20. Constructional difficulties Delhi, a crowded city, it was not easy to built tracks overhead in all the place of the metropolice; specially in areas like Chandni Chowk, Chawari Bazar etc.  So we had to built underground as well as overhead tracks.
    21. 21. Very difficult to drill tunnels in areas like Chawari Bazar where underground water level is very high.  Difficult to transport the raw material to the construction site.
    22. 22. Operational difficulties Initially, DMRC found it difficult to muster enough passengers because of its higher fare than usual mode of transport  Later on, people started realizing the convenience and comforts provided by DMRC.  At present, DMRC earns more than metros in other cities of the world.
    23. 23. Some metro stations, being far away, were difficult to reach.   DMRC started feeder buses in collaboration with DTC  It helped in bringing passengers more easily to the stations.
    24. 24. Comparison of DMRC with Indian Railways Better, safer, cleaner and faster mode of transportation. At station, security level is very high. Fully air-conditioned
    25. 25.  Parking at stations attracts more passengers and in turn more revenue but the same is not possible with the Indian Railways.  DMRC allows advertisements and therefore it finds an easy way to increase its revenue.
    26. 26. TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT IN IT SECTOR  3G TECHNOLOGY
    27. 27. 3G TECHNOLOGY wireless technology representing a shift from voice-centric services to multimedia oriented like  video conferencing,  voice,  data transfer, fax service with high speed communication and broad bandwidth.
    28. 28. Difficulties in implementation of 3G-tech  Expensive input fees for 3G service license, cause of delay in auction  Numerous differences in licensing terms  Expense of 3G phones like i-phones or smart phones.
    29. 29.  Lack of buy-in by 2G mobile users for the new 3G wireless  Lack of coverage, because it is still a new service  High price of 3G mobile services  Current lack of user need for 3G voice and data services in a hand held device
    30. 30. TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT IN BANKING SECTOR E-BANKING or INTERNET BANKING
    31. 31. E-BANKING In internet banking or e-banking, any inquiry or transaction whether it is to withdraw cash to deposit a cheque or a request of statement of accounts is processed online without any reference to the branch (anywhere banking) at any time.
    32. 32. Becoming a “need to have” than “nice to have” service Benefits      Improve customer access Facilitate the offering of more services Increase customer loyalty Attract new customer Reduce customer attrition
    33. 33. E-banking security management  Need to aware customers about all possible internet fraud  Avoid cyber-café for online transactions  Software programs like – spyware and trojan – are designed to capture key strokes on keyboard, thus collecting consumer’s personal information.
    34. 34. this problem is overcame by virtual keyboard or online keyboard.  Banks are providing two level authentication process  Genuine websites have their address starting with ‘https://’ (not just ‘http://’) s - literally stands for security  Should change the password frequently and using alpha numeric or characters like $,#,% helps.
    35. 35. • TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT IN HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
    36. 36. HRM • Human resource management is a management function concerned with hiring, motivating and maintaining people in an organization. It focuses on people in an organization. • OBJECTIVE: Providing trained and well motivated employees
    37. 37. • Human resource information system or the HR Technology refers to the system and processed at the intersection between HRM and IT. • To reduce the manual workload of the administrative activities. Organization began to electronically automate many of these processes by introducing speacialised HRMS.
    38. 38. Human Resource Management System encompasses • PAYROLLS • WORK TIME • HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT MODULE • RECRUITMENT • TRAINING MODULE.
    39. 39. TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT IN BUSINESS PROCESS MANAGEMENT
    40. 40. BUSINESS PROCESS MANAGEMENT • Business process management (BPM) has been a feature of the technology. • BPM has been defined as a method of efficiently aligning an organization with the wants and needs of its customers.
    41. 41. • BPM is emerging as a solution to cater the needs of highly differentiated business process. • Gain a clear complete and comprehensive understanding.
    42. 42. CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT 1. Contacts with its current and prospective customers. 2 CRM software system can be accessed and the information about the customers can be stored.
    43. 43. 3. CRM’S goals are to improve services provided to customers and to use customer contact information for the targeted marketing 4. It includes : A. Business relationship. B. Front office operations. C. Back office operation.
    44. 44. BENEFITS OF BPM 1) Reduces process time. 2) Eliminates Errors and increases productivity. 3) Improves Regulatory compliance.
    45. 45. Technology Management in Hospitals
    46. 46. Hospital Management System • Reduce costs and improve the accuracy and timeliness of patient care, accounting and administration, record keeping and management reporting. • Hospital workflow management, and laboratory management, easily customizable to the requirements of any hospital.
    47. 47. Features of Hospital Management System • Comprehensive patient record management • Total security and privacy of EMR (Electronic Medical Record) through world class data servers • Centralized/Integrated Medical Billing Service • Laboratory Information System (LIS) for all operational, Diagnostic and administrative functions in a laboratory
    48. 48. • Complete web based administration of the system • Highest security at User Level, Module Level and Form Level • Unique patient ID, generated after OPD and IPD registration, helps in centralizing the patient related information. • Track the entire medical history of a particular patient through Doctor’s Module • MIS reports for the smooth functioning of Hospital Management
    49. 49. Most Modern (Medical) Technology • Patients are treated according to the latest scientific findings and using the most modern medical technology. To improve the security of the patients and employees, the clinics have also put a particular focus on high-tech: since the summer of 2004, MOBOTIX cameras have provided constant monitoring of the gates and other critical points onthe clinic premises.
    50. 50. Central Monitoring • providing central monitoring for all the entrances and access points • critical points, such as the cash desks and banking machines or the waiting room in the emergency room, are also under the watchful eye of the front desk staff • Used for reasons of security and documentation
    51. 51. Technology Management & Effect's on BPO Industry
    52. 52. DATA MINING Data mining is, in some ways, an extension of statistics, with a few artificial intelligence and machine learning twists thrown in. Like statistics, data mining is not a business solution, it is just a technology.  Present Data Mining Technology Used By IBM, Oracle & Microsoft.
    53. 53. An Overview of Data Mining Techniques Classical Techniques Next Generation Techniques Statistics Trees Neighborhoods Networks Clustering Rules
    54. 54. COMPANY A
    55. 55. COMPANY B Potential customer’s
    56. 56. Benefits •Better Customer Relationship. •Customer Acquisition. •Campaign Optimization. •Scoring Your Customers. •Database Marketing. 
    57. 57. 3. Relationship of Technology with Wealth of Nation & Firms Specific Knowledge (competitive advantage). Productivity growth is indispensable to growth in national income and wealth. Research carried out over the last 30 years demonstrates that technological change is an important contributor to productivity growth, and therefore to growth in the income and wealth of nations. The last decade of the twentieth century presents great challenges and opportunities to policy makers and managers concerned with improving technological and economic performance. Technological change is an essential ingredient in the processes of growth. Investment in technological improvement and in the complementary assets and activities needed to support innovation is a positive sum strategy for improving living standards. Enhanced capital, labor and technical progress (or equivalently, total factor productivity) are the three principal sources of the economic growth of nations. The rate of growth of labor is generally constrained by the rate of growth of population. For industrialized countries, the rate of growth of the labor force is seldom higher than two percent per annum, even with international migration. Consequently, the rate of growth of capital (physical
    58. 58. Firms Specific Knowledge (competitive advantage) • Creation of knowledge: Efforts at creating new capability may be focused on better satisfying the needs already being addressed or on responding to new needs (creating new business). – Includes basic research, applied research, and development. • Application of knowledge (Doing): Applying newly acquired capability or creative application of already available capability. – Includes product (design engineering), process (manufacturing engineering, quality control, fabrication, computer-integrated manufacturing), and market (application engineering, physical distribution, and product service).
    59. 59. Technological Innovation in a Competitive Environment • Decisions about technology and innovation are very strategic and managers need to approach them in a systematic way. • Two generic strategies a company can use include – Low-cost leadership can drive innovation as companies try to gain cost advantages through pioneering lower-cost product designs – Differentiation strategy can drive innovation as companies seek the advantages that come from having a unique product or service that customers pay a premium price for
    60. 60. Product technological change Process technological change TECHNOLOGICAL POLICIES AND GENERIC COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES GENERIC Overall Cost Leadership TECHNOLOGICAL Product devt to reduce product cost by lowering materials content, facilitating ease of manufacture, simplifying logistical requirements. Learning curve process improvement. Process devt to enhance economies of scale. STRATEGY Overall Differentiation POLICIES Product devt to enhance product quality, features, deliverability, or switching costs. Process devt to support high tolerances, greater quality control, more reliable scheduling, faster response time to orders, and other dimensions that improve performance. (Porter, 1983) Focus-Segment Cost Leadership Focus-Segment Differentiation Product devt to design in only enough performance for the segment’s needs. Product design to exactly meet the needs of the particular business segment application. Process devt to tune production and delivery system to segment needs in order to lower cost. Process devt to tune the production and delivery system to segment need in order to improve performance.
    61. 61. DEGREE OF MARKETING DIFFERENTIATION MICHAEL PORTER’S MATRIX 2 High 3 Outstandin g success Niche/focu s 4 Disaster 1 Cost leadership Low High RELATIVE COSTS Low
    62. 62. Analysis of the external environment Strategic analysis Analysis of internal skills and resources Analysis of stakeholder needs and expectations Strategic direction Strategy choice Formulate strategic objectives Identify performance measures Generate strategic options Choose a preferred strategy Develop appropriate systems Strategy implementation Acquire and utilise skills and resources Develop appropriate organisation structure Manage the culture Strategy evaluation & control Measure strategic objectives Take corrective action VISION MISSION VALUES STRATEGIC INFORMATION SYSTEM The Strategic Management Process (Source: Viljoen and Dann, 2000, p47)
    63. 63. LEADERSHIP VS FOLLOWERSHIP
    64. 64. DETERMINANTS OF THE LEADERSHIP FOLLOWERSHIP CHOICE • Industry structural characteristics: – – – – – opportunity to influence cost or differentiation the uniqueness of the firm’s technological skills first mover advantages the continuity of technological change rate of change in process technology or customer purchasing behaviour – irreversibility of investments – uncertainty, and – leadership externalities.
    65. 65. LEADERSHIP EXTERNALITIES • Gaining regulatory approvals and code compliance • Winning customers away from substitutes (marketing costs, penetration prices) • Customer education on product usage • Investments in infrastructure such as supply sources, machinery, training repair and service personnel • Investments to improve the performance price or availability of complementary goods.
    66. 66. Strategic Technology leader Catch up or get out Operational Importance of technology in industry Technology Evaluation Matrix De-emphasise technology Technology adopter Leader Laggard Technology position of the firm in industry
    67. 67. Technology Leadership
    68. 68. Technology Followership • Following the technology leader can support both low-cost and differentiation strategies – The follower learns from the leader’s experience – The follower can avoid the costs and risks of technology leadership – The follower can adapt the products or delivery systems to fit buyers’ needs more closely
    69. 69. TECHNOLOGICAL LEADERSHIP-FOLLOWERSHIP AND GENERIC STRATEGIES Overall cost leadership Overall differentiation Focus—lowest segment cost Focus— segment differentiation Technological Leadership First mover on lowest cost product or process technology. First mover on unique product or process that enhances product performance or creates switching costs. First mover on lowest cost segment technology. First mover on unique product or process tuned to segment performance needs, or creates segment switching costs. (Porter, 1983) Technological Followership Lower cost of product or process through learning from leader’s experience. Adapt product or delivery system more closely to market needs (or raise switching costs) by learning from leader’s experience. Alter leader’s product or process to serve particular segment more efficiently. Adapt leader’s product or process to performance needs of particular segment or create segment switching costs.
    70. 70. TECHNOLOGICAL LEADERSHIPFOLLOWERSHIP AND GENERIC STRATEGIES Technological Leadership Technological Followership Overall cost First mover on lowest cost product Lower cost of product or process or process technology. through learning from leader’s leadership experience. First mover on unique product or Adapt product or delivery system Overall more closely to market needs (or differentiation process that enhances product performance or creates switching raise switching costs) by learning costs. from leader’s experience. (Porter, 1983)
    71. 71. STAGE OF `INDUSTRY’ DEVELOPMENT Growth Leade r Strategic position of organizatio n Follower Keeping ahead of the field Imitation at lower cost Joint ventures Maturity Cost leadership Raise barriers Deter competitors Differenti ation Focus Decline Redefine scope Divest peripherals Encourage departures Differentiatio n New opportunities 72
    72. 72. Assessing Technology Needs • In today’s increasingly competitive environment failure to correctly assess the technology needs of the organization can fundamentally impair the organization’s effectiveness • Assessing the technology needs of the organization involves: – measuring current technologies – Measuring external trends affecting the industry
    73. 73. Measuring Current Technologies • A technology audit helps clarify the key technologies on which an organization depends • One technique for measuring competitive value categorizes technologies as: – Emerging technologies are still under development and thus are unproved – Pacing technologies have yet to prove their full value but have the potential to alter the rules of competition by providing significant advantage – Key technologies have proved effective, but they also provide a strategic advantage – Base technologies are those that are common place in the industry
    74. 74. Assessing External Technological Trends • There are several techniques that managers use to better understand how technology is changing within an industry – Benchmarking is the process of comparing the organization’s practices and technologies with those of other companies – Scanning focuses on what can be done and what is being developed, placing a great emphasis on identifying and monitoring the sources of new technologies for an industry
    75. 75. 4. TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE
    76. 76. The Technology Life Cycle • The technology life cycle is a predictable pattern followed by a technological innovation, from its inception and development to market saturation and replacement.
    77. 77. TECHNOLOGY PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS
    78. 78. • In broad terms the "s" curve suggests four phases of a technology life cycle - emerging, growth, mature and aging. • These four phases are coupled to increasing levels of acceptance of an innovation or, in our case a new technology. In recent times for many technologies an inverse curve - which corresponds to a declining cost per unit - has been postulated. This may not prove to be universally true though for information technology where much of the cost is in the initial phase it has been a reasonable expectation.
    79. 79. • Role of technology management function in organization is understand the value of certain technology for the organization. Continuous development of technology is valuable as long as there is a value for the customer and therefore technology management function in organization should be able to argue when to invest on technology development and when to withdraw.
    80. 80. TECHNOLOGlCAL INNOVATION CONTRIBUTION OF TECHNOLOGY IN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL PROGRESS Technology is Practical value of the applied sciences Science And Technology • Technological Progress • The Competitive Advantage of Nations • Technological Innovations to gain competitive advantage • Technological strengths among nations
    81. 81. • Monopoly = one supplier • Introduction phase • Examples? • Oligopoly = a few suppliers • Growth phase • Examples? • Pure Competition = many suppliers • Maturity phase • Examples?
    82. 82. Pulling it Together: The Product Life Cycle • Sales are low to stimulate demand • Money spent on promotion • Sales level off • More sales and competition Monopoly Monopolistic Competition • Higher competition • Less promotion Oligopoly Pure Competition
    83. 83. Nontraditional PLCs • Fads • Trends • Niche • Seasonal
    84. 84. Technology Intelligence & Forecasting
    85. 85. What is Technology Intelligence ? • Technology Intelligence (TI) is an activity that enables companies to identify the technological opportunities and threats that could affect the future growth and survival of their business. • The Centre for Technology Management defines 'Technology Intelligence' as "the capture and delivery of technological information as part of the process whereby an organisation develops an awareness of technological threats and opportunities.” • 'Technology Intelligence' aims to capture and disseminate the technological information needed for strategic planning and decision making. • Companies install an intelligence system (technology, market, business or competitive intelligence) to collect and analyze information on market, product, and technology changes and on other environmental transformations in order to increase their decision-making quality and competitiveness.
    86. 86. What is Technology Intelligence ?
    87. 87. What is Technology Intelligence ? Why Technology Intelligence? • As technology life cycles shorten and business become more globalized; having effective T I capabilities is becoming increasingly important. • T I provides an understanding of current & potential changes taking place in the environment. • T I provides important information for strategic decision-makers • T I facilitates and fosters strategic thinking in organizations. • If conducted properly, T I leads to enhanced capacity & commitment to understanding, anticipating and responding to external changes
    88. 88. Levels of Technology Intelligence ? Three levels of T I • Macro level – technological trends & developments which can influence entire economy / major sectors • Industry or business level - technological trends & developments which can influence specific industries / businesses • Program or project level – technological trends & developments which can influence specific technology related program or project The above three levels differ in terms of • Breadth of technology • Clarity of trends • Degree of precision of trends Different levels of technology intelligence can be applied / useful in different context
    89. 89. Levels of Technology Intelligence ?
    90. 90. What is Technology Mapping ? • Technology Intelligence could be both internal as well as external. Internal technology intelligence is called technology audit. • External technology intelligence is called technology mapping. • Mapping technology environment refers to the process of gathering external data and analyzing it to derive the intelligence for major strategic decisions.
    91. 91. What is Technology Mapping ?
    92. 92. What is Technology Mapping ? Process of mapping the technology environment consists of four interlinked steps: • 1. Scanning the environment to detect ongoing & emerging changes • 2. Monitoring specific environment trends & patterns • 3. Forecasting the future direction of technological changes • 4. Assessing the current & future environmental changes for understanding their strategic & organizational implications
    93. 93. What is Technology Mapping ?
    94. 94. What is Technology Forecasting ? • Technology forecasting attempts to predict the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques. • Technology is forecast in two areas: • 1. Technologies that support internal software development, which includes tools, processes, and methods for producing the software that will end up in products. • 2. Customer solutions, meaning technologies that will affect (or end up as) features or capabilities embedded in products.
    95. 95. 1. 2. 3. 4. Elements of Technology Forecasting Time of the forecast – a single point of time, or a time span. Approach in Technology Forecasting Statement of functional capability / performance characteristics of technology – a quantitative measure of its ability to carry out the functions. Statement of Probability – Probability of achieving a given level of functional capability by a certain time; or – Probability distribution over the levels that might be achieved by a specific time.
    96. 96. Performance Characteristics Why Forecast Technology? Technology Progression Physical limits of technology < Technology Regime 2 Technology Regime 1 > Time / funds / efforts
    97. 97. Benefits of Technology Forecasting ? Since 1990s rate of technological change has become faster. Individual, organization or nation affected by technological change as it invalidates previous resource allocation based on historical facts / data.Therefore technology forecast is no more avoidable. Following factors necessitate forecast of technology: • To maximize gain from events external to an organization • To minimize loss associated with uncontrollable events external to an organization.
    98. 98. Benefits of Technology Forecasting • Contd ….. • To maximize gain from events that are result of action taken by an organization. • To offset the actions of hostile or competitive organizations • To forecast demand for production and /or inventory control. • To forecast demand for facilities and capital planning. • To forecast demand to ensure adequate staffing • To develop administrative plans & policies internal to an organization. • To develop policies that apply to people who are not part of the organization.
    99. 99. Benefits of Technology Forecasting Contd ….. According to Ralph Lenz, technology forecast can play following specific roles in improving the quality of technology decisions: • The forecast identifies limits beyond which it is not possible to go. • It establishes feasible rates of progress, so that the plan can be made to take full advantage of such rates of progress, • It describes the alternatives that are open for choice. • It indicates the possibilities that might be achieved if desired. • It provides a reference standard for the plan. Thus the plan can be compared with the forecast at any point in time to determine whether it can still be fulfilled or whether because of changes in the forecast, it has to be changed. • It furnishes warning signals which can alert the decision maker that it will not be possible to continue present activities.
    100. 100. Techniques of Technology Forecasting Ideally technology forecasting should be rational and analytical based on available pertinent data. In following three situations / circumstances expert opinion may be sought for making technology forecast: • No historical data exists – as it could be new technology / new area of research & development • Impact of external factors may be more important than the factors which governed previous development of technologyi.e past data has become irrelevant and cannot be relied for making technology forecast • Ethical or moral considerations may dominate economic & technical considerations thus seeking lesser reliance on available data.
    101. 101. Techniques of Technology Forecasting • In above three situations, as the historical data is either not available or it has become irrelevant, group of experts are used to make technology forecast; as there is an old saying -“Two heads are better than one.” By involving a number of experts, there is pooling of divergent ideas and various dimensions may be analyzed in better manner thus leading to a better technology forecast. • A. Techniques involving a group of experts are : – 1. Committees – 2. Delphi • B. Other Techniques based on historical data are : – 3. Exploratory Forecast – 4. Normative Forecast
    102. 102. 1. Committees Key advantages of committees are as under: • Sum total of knowledge is greater than individual knowledge • Number of factors considered would be more than those considered by an individual • There is pooling of divergent ideas and various dimensions may be analyzed in a better manner • Helps in avoiding individual biases • Better knowledge & awareness of one member may compensate for lack of knowledge of another member.
    103. 103. 1. Committees Few limitations associated with committees are : • Ther is no guarantee that misinformation will be cancelled out by using a group of experts. There is no guranatee that wrong ideas / judgements will be cancelled out by good ideas / judgements. • There is usually social pressure to agree with majority, which may be implicit or explicit. • Reaching agreement becomes a goal in itself. Good forecasts may thus be watered down in a bid to reach a consenus.
    104. 104. 1. Committees Contd … • A strong vocal minority may overwhelm majority , thus making process vulnerabe to hijack by dominant individuals • Vested interests may be presented very strongly in the beginning thus setting defined direction in the beginning • Entire group may share a common bias if a common culture is shared by all of them thus nullifying advantage of the group. • There may be emotional involvement of certain members, leading to conflicts • Lot of time and efforts may be consumed in reaching to a consensus
    105. 105. 2. Delphi Three characterstics that distinguish Delphi from conventional face to face group interactions ( like committee) are as under:. 1. Anonymity - anonymity is maintained through questionnaire as under : • Avoids possibility of identifying a specific opinion with a particular person. • Originator can thus change his mind without publicity admitting that he has done so. • Each idea can be considered on its merits, regardless of the fact whether group members may have high or low opinion about originator.
    106. 106. 2. Delphi Contd … 2. Interaction with controlled feed back • Group interaction is through questionnaires and answers to questionnaires • Coordinator / moderator picks relevant informations & each group member is informed of status of group’s collective opinion & arguments for & against each point of view. • Controlled feedback prevents group taking rigid stand & helps to concentrate on its original objectives. 3. Statistical Group response • Delphi presents the statistical group reponse that presents the opinions of entire group giving both the “Centre” of the group and the degree of spread about that centre
    107. 107. 2. Delphi Limitations / Disadvantages of Delphi • The success of Delphi mainly lies in coordinator. • The experts must carry relevant experience • Further like committee, Delphi is based on opinions and not on data.
    108. 108. 3. Exploratory Forecast • • • • An Exploratory Forecast starts with past & present conditions and projects these to estimate future conditions. The exploratory forecast is based on technology push and is opportunity oriented i.e. searching for future opportunities. Exploratory forecast implicitly assumes that required performance can be achieved by reasonable extension of past performance. Commonly used techniques of exploratory forecast are : Trend extrapolation.
    109. 109. 3. Exploratory Forecast Trend Extrapolation • Assumption: Time series data from the past contains all the information needed to forecast the future. • The forecaster extends a pattern found by analyzing past time series data. • For example: A technological forecasting to forecast future aircraft speed …. by studying historical time series of aircraft speed records, by finding a pattern (trend), and extending it to the future to obtain a forecast.
    110. 110. 4. Normative Forecast • • • A Normative Forecast starts with future needs and identifies the technological performance necessary to meet these required needs. The normative forecast is based on market pull and is mission / need –oriented i.e. finding ways for meeting future needs. Normative forecast implicitly forecasts the capabilities that will be available on the assumption that needs will be met . Thus in case of normative forecast, meeting needs on defined future time is highly important
    111. 111. Exploratory &Normative Forecast
    112. 112. 4. Normative Forecast • Few techniques of Normative Technological Forecasting are as under: – Relevances Trees – Decision Matrices : Horizontal or vertical – Morphological Analysis – Network Techniques – Mission Flow Diagrams etc
    113. 113. 4. Normative Forecast • • Morphological Analysis - It is a normative technique developed by Fritz Zwicky which provides a framework for exploring all possible solutions to a particular problem. The morphological analysis involves the systematic study of the current and future scenarios of a particular problem. Based on this study, possible gaps are identified and the morphological analysis further provides a framework to explore other alternatives to fill these gaps. Relevance Trees - It is an organized ‘normative’ approach starting with a particular objective and used for forecasting as well as planning. The basic structure looks like an organisational chart and presents information in a hierarchical structure. The hierarchy begins with the objectives which are further broken down into activities and further into tasks. As one descends down, the details increase at every level. The entries when taken together at each level describe the preceding level completely. Also, all activities and tasks depicted should be mutually exclusive
    114. 114. 4. Normative Forecast • • • A mission / control flow diagram (CFD) is a diagram to describe the control flow of a business process, process or program Mission Flow Diagrams - have been originally conceived by Harold Linstone as a means of analyzing military missions. This involves mapping all the alternative routes or sequences by which a given task can be accomplished. The analyst needs to identify significant steps on each route and also determine the challenges/costs associated with each route. The performance requirements can then be derived for each associated technology and the same can be used as normative forecasts. .
    115. 115. 4. Normative Forecast Network Technique • Firstly, the elements of a technological forecasting network are formulated for the purpose of converting the qualitative description of a technological system to a stochastic (nondeterministic) network form. • Then, an analytical procedure for the synthesis of the network is given. • Finally, examples are included for the purpose of illustration.
    116. 116. Technology Acquisition & Transfer
    117. 117. What is Technology Transfer ? • • • Technology Transfer is the process by which technology is disseminated. It involves communication of relevant knowledge by the Transferor to the Recipient. It is in the form of technology transfer transaction which way or may not be a legally binding contract.
    118. 118. What is Technology Acquisition ? Twoterms technology transfer and technology are normally used interchangeably. The verb “Acquire” means • To come into possesion of; get as one’s own • To gain for oneself through one’s actions or efforts Technology Acquisition is the process of acquiring a new technology, new product, process or service ; by efforts of an individual or an enterprise or any other macro entity. This process can be conducted either internally or externally to the enterprise.
    119. 119. Types of Technology Transfer • • • Scientific Knowledge Transfer, Direct Technology Transfer, Spin-off Technology Transfer Informal Technology Transfer & Formal Technology Transfer Internal Technology Transfer & External Technology Transfer
    120. 120. Internal Technology Transfer Internal Technology Transfer refer to such technology transfers / investments where control on the ownership & usage of technology resides with the transferor. It is a complex process involving following decisions: • Timing : When to introduce new technology / products in the market? • Location : Where to transfer new technology / products? • Multi-functional teams --Which staff members should be involved in transfer process ? • Communication methods & procedures – What type of Communication methods & procedures be adopted to facilitate transfer ?
    121. 121. Barriers to Internal Technology Transfer • R & D goals are not known to Production Department. • Difficulties in stopping current production to test new products / processes • R&D Department does not understand needs & capability of Production Department. • In general, Production Department is resistant to innovation and is bound by routine. • Non-linkage of new technologies to marketing / customer needs.
    122. 122. Overcoming Barriers to Internal Technology Transfer • Top management support and participation in the transfer process • Providing supportive organizational culture • Use of multi-functional teams in the transfer process • Ensuring effective communication in the organization • Bringing R&D closer to production. • Rotation of few person between R&D and production • Linking & participation of marketing elements in the transfer process.
    123. 123. Steps in Internal Technology Acquisition by a firm 1. Planning new products / services / processes to be offered – planning must incorporate voice of the customer & user needs 2. Screening new products, processes or services – only viable / feasible items be offered as only one out of 4/5 becomes a commercial success. 3. Initiating development process – must be properly designed and carried out so that it facilitates success. Enterprises should a. Consist of temporary system capable of adapting to dymanics of change b. Organize the systems around problem solving
    124. 124. Steps in Internal Technology Acquisition by a firm c. Have flexible management system & replace rigid management system d. Use multi-functional teams. e. Proper integration between R&D, Production & Marketing sub-systems f. Ensure effective communication g. Carrying out trial production on small scale and test marketing h. Improving design & production processes based on experiences / feedback i. Commercialization i.e. mass production & sales
    125. 125. External Technology Transfer • In these transfers, control on the ownership & usage of technology usually does not remain with transferor and it passes on to the recipient, like joint venture with local control, licensing agreement etc.
    126. 126. External Technology Transfer Successful external technology transfer depends upon following factors: • Type of the technology being transferred • Complexity of the technology being transferred • Transfer mechanism selected • Relationships between the parties – building of mutual trust • Core competencies of the parties & compatibilty thereof • Organizational culture of the parties & mutual understanding thereof
    127. 127. Methods of External Technology Transfer • • • • Co-operative & collaborative ventures / strategic alliances Licensing agreements Contracting agreements Enterprise acquisition.
    128. 128. Why External Technology Transfer • Technology already developed saves time & efforts • Sometimes Growth objectives or competitive goals cannot be reached through internal development • Lack of risk taking ability for innovations • Lack of internal resources (physical & human) for innovation • Firm does not have core competencies to deal with complex technological developments. • Need to keep up with competitors • Need to cope up with acceleration of technological change • As a part of firm’ strategy --- let other firms take big risks & it will purchase technology developed by them.
    129. 129. Barriers to External Technology Transfer • Associated costs – usually high prices are required to be paid in the form of royalities, technical & knowhow fees etc over medium to long term period • Appropriatesness of technology i.e. its suitability to core competencies and market needs is always a point of discussion and investigation • Heavy reliances on foreign technology- may make transferee / recipient technologically dependent on external technology providers / transferors even for small issues • Lack of mutual trust between two parties may hinder full & timely transfer
    130. 130. Barriers to External Technology Transfer • There is risk of loss of control over technology and the transferee / recipient may use technology in an arbitrary manner • Transfer may render existing technology & its related products / services / processes obsolete • Transferee may turn a potential competitor in future. • Mismatch in core competencies of the transferor & transferee may create difficulties in transfer • Different organisation cultures may create difficulties in transfer • Lack of effective communication between the parties may also create difficulties in transfer
    131. 131. Overcoming Barriers to External Technology Transfer • Proper & well defined technology transfer agreement should be signed • Proper assessment / evaluation of appropriateness of technology • Proper assessment / evaluation of compatability of core competencies of the parties • Building pre-agreement relationships so as to develop mutual trust and so as to understand culture of opposite parties • Seeking cross cultural training • Ensuring effective communication • Anticipating problems and adopting measures for facilitating transfer
    132. 132. Steps in External Technology Acquisition by a firm – 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Identification of Need Developing list of suitable technology providers Short listing / selecting suitable technology providers on the basis …. Cultural compatibility, compatibility of core competences, appropriateness of technology, technical feasibility etc Negotiation Agreement Payments as per agreement Transfer of specifications, blueprints, designs, documents, CDs to purchaser Training of technical personnel of purchaser
    133. 133. Modes of Payment for Technology Transfer • • • • • Lumpsum payment or periodical instalments Royalities as a %age of sales over next few years Cross-licensing agreements Contracted supply of output Issue of equity shares in lieu of technology transferred
    134. 134. Acquisition of Technology By Nation • What factors influence acquisition decision? • What are national strategies for technology acquisition? • Methods of technology acquisition by a nation
    135. 135. Methods of Technology Acquisition By Nation • Attracting TNCs / MNCs – Through direct measures viz. making a positive list of industries open to FDI – Through indirect measures - viz by offering incentives & subsidies • Attracting TNCs / MNCs into natural resource processing & inducing greater value additions • Using TNCs / MNCs to attract / encourage their overseas suppliers to invest into country • Improving skills & training of local technologists by involving TNCs / MNCs
    136. 136. Methods of Technology Acquisition By Nation • Developing industrial parks / technology parks to attract high technology investors • Offering incentives to existing investors to move to more complex technologies and to increase or upgrade technological R& D base • Changing competitive environment and existing incentive structure to encourage world class technology & management • Improving technological access for local firms for outsourcing / technology transfer • Collecting, organising & disseminating information about technology development
    137. 137. Regulation of Technology Transfer By Nation • The regulation is undertaken in two directions: – Regulation of import of technology / technology inflows – Regulation of export of technology / technology outflows & Setting up of Joint Ventures (JV) and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries (WOS) Abroad • Why regulation of import of technology? – What are advantages & disadvantages of import of technology? • What are – Guidelines on import of Foreign Technology into India? • Why regulation of export of technology? –What are advantages & disadvantages of export of technology? • What are – Guidelines on Export of Technology & Setting up Joint Venture & Wholly Owned subsidiary abroad?

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