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LU2 Basic Probability
LU2 Basic Probability
LU2 Basic Probability
LU2 Basic Probability
LU2 Basic Probability
LU2 Basic Probability
LU2 Basic Probability
LU2 Basic Probability
LU2 Basic Probability
LU2 Basic Probability
LU2 Basic Probability
LU2 Basic Probability
LU2 Basic Probability
LU2 Basic Probability
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LU2 Basic Probability

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  • Gagne’s 1 & 4: Gain attention & present stimulus material
  • Gagne’s 2: Inform learning objectives to the students
  • Gagne’s 4: The use of Wordle to present stimulus material to the students
  • Gagne’s 1: Gain AttentionGagne’s 3: Stimulate or recall of prior knowledgeGagne’s 9: Enhance retention and transfer
  • Gagne’s 5: Provide learning guidance by the aids of YouTube to illustrate the calculation
  • Gagne’s 5: Provide learning guidance
  • Gagne’s 1: Gain AttentionGagne’s 9: Enhance retention and transfer
  • Gagne’s 6, 7,8 and 9: Elicit performance, provide feedback, assess performance and enhance retention & transfer
  • Transcript

    • 1. STF 1093 Statistics for Biology
      LU2: Basic Probability
    • 2. Learning Objectives
      At the end of this learning unit, the students must be able to:
      Define experiment, outcome, event, probability and equally likely.
      Restate the formula for finding the probability of an event.
      Determine the outcomes and probabilities for experiments.
      Recognize the difference between outcomes that are equally likely and not equally likely to occur.
      Apply probability concepts to complete exercises.
    • 3. 5.1 The Meaning of Probability
      3
      Probability is used to describe RANDOMor CHANCESof events to occur.
       
      Every day we are faced with probability statements involving the words:
      1. What is the likelihood that X will occur?
      2. What is the chance that Brazil will win the 2010 World Cup?
      3. The upgrading of KuchingAirport will likely be completed on time.
      4. There is a 50-50 possibilitythat an electricity trip will occur.
    • 4. Let’s Recall…
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GH0BWluXxtM&feature=related
    • 5. 5
      • An event is some specified result that may or may not occur when an experiment is performed.
      • 6. For example, in an experiment of tossing a coin once, the coin landing with heads facing up is an event, since it may or may not occur.
      • 7. The probability of an event is a measure of the likelihood of its occurrence. Probability is always expressed as a decimal and it will always fall between 0 and 1.
      Probability near 0 indicates that the event is very unlikely to occur. Zero (0) probability (p = 0) indicates that the event is certain not to occur.
       
      Probability near 1 suggests that the events is quite likely to occur. A probability of one (p = 1) indicates that the event is certain to occur.
    • 8. 5.2 The Equal-Likelihood Model
      6
      • This model applies when the possible outcomes of an experiment are equally likely to occur.
      • 9. Suppose there are N equally likely possible outcomes from an experiment.
      • 10. Then the probability that a specified events equals the number of ways, f, that the event can occur, divided by the total number, N, of possible outcomes.
    • 7
      The probability is
      f = No. of ways event can occur
      N = Total number of possible outcomes.
      In other words, in a situation where several different outcomes are possible, we define the probability for any particular outcome as a fraction of the proportion.
      Example 1
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuyBEhMo5ZA&feature=related
    • 11. 8
      Example 2. A jar contains 1000 marbles, 800 are black and 200 are red. What is the probability of drawing a black marble out of the jar.
      Solution:
      Here 800 is the number of possible outcomes, f
      The total number of possible outcomes is 1000, N
      Thus the probability is
      and
      The probability of drawing a black marble is much higher than the probability of you picking a red marble because there are more black marbles in the jar.
    • 12. Let’s Play!Probability Game
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6Ih87xLQfo
    • 13. 10
       5.3 Basic Probability Theorems
      Addition Theorems
      If event A and event B are mutually exclusive, then
      P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
      A
      B
      Because event A and event B are
      mutually exclusive, the total coloured
      region equal to the sum of the two
      coloured disks.
      For mutually exclusive events
      Illustrated by Venn diagram
      More generally if events A, B,C…..are mutually exclusive, then
       
      P(A or B or C ….) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) + ……..
    • 14. 11
      For non-mutually exclusive events, then
      (A and B) – joint occurrence
      (A or B)
      The general addition rule,
       If A and B are two events then
       P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
      The general notation is
      Probability of A  B events to occur
       P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A B)
    • 15. Exercises for this week
      Check for weekly task in STF1093 Group in Facebook
      http://www.facebook.com/groups/140090106073688
    • 16.
    • 17. Thank You!Any suggestions or comments??

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