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Lef 2008 digitaldisruptions

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CSC Report: Digital Disruptions: Technology Innovations Powering 21st Century Business …

CSC Report: Digital Disruptions: Technology Innovations Powering 21st Century Business

Serialized on Forbes.com, and acclaimed by eWeek, The Financial Times, Signal Magazine et al.

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  • 1. Technology Innovations Powering 21st Century Business Leading Edge Forum 2008 Digital Disruptions new media rld er) wo new wave s sm art( er makeover social pow form y la t ren c ne w re p a sp ran orm atio n t al i t y inf
  • 2. DIGTAL TRUST | LEADING ABoUT THE VoL. 8 EDGE FoRUM LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M As part of CSC’s Office of Innovation, the Leading Edge Forum to provoke conversations in the marketplace about the potential (LEF) is a global community whose programs help participants for innovation when applying technology to help advance realize business benefits from the use of advanced IT more rapidly. organizational performance. For more information about LEF programs, visit www.csc.com/lef. LEF members work to spot key emerging business and technology trends before others, and identify specific practices for exploiting The LEF Executive Programme is a premium, fee-based program these trends for business advantage. Members enjoy access to that helps CIOs and senior business executives develop into a global network of thought leaders and leading practitioners, next-generation leaders by using technology for competitive and to a powerful body of research and field practices. advantage in wholly new ways. Members direct the research agenda, interact with a network of world-class experts, and LEF programs give CTOs and senior technologists the opportunity access topical conferences, study tours, information exchanges to explore the most pressing technology issues, examine state-of- and advisory services. For more information about the LEF the-art practices, and leverage CSC’s technology experts, alliance Executive Programme, visit lef.csc.com. programs and events. LEF programs and reports are intended In this ongoing series of reports about technology directions, the LEF looks at the role of innovation in the marketplace both now and in the years to come. By studying technology’s current realities and anticipating its future shape, these reports provide organizations with the necessary balance between tactical decision making and strategic planning. To receive these reports, subscribe to the LEF RSS feed: www.csc.com/lefpodcast LEF LEADERSHIP WILLIAM KoFF PAUL GUSTAFSoN Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, Director, Leading Edge Forum Office of Innovation Paul Gustafson is an accomplished technologist and proven Bill Koff is a leader in CSC’s technology community, providing leader in emerging technologies, applied research and strategy. vision and direction as vice president and chief technology officer As director of the Leading Edge Forum, Paul brings vision and for the office of Innovation. Bill plays a key role in guiding CSC leadership to a portfolio of programs that make up the LEF and research, innovation, technology thought leadership and alliance directs the technology research agenda. Astute at recognizing partner activities, and in certifying CSC’s Centers of Excellence technology trends, how they interrelate, and their implications and Innovation Centers. He advises CSC and its clients on criti- for business, Paul brings his insights to bear on client strategy, cal information technology trends, technology innovation and CSC research, leadership development and innovation strategy. strategic investments in leading edge technology. A frequent He has published numerous papers and articles on strategic speaker on technology, architecture and management issues, technology issues and speaks to executive audiences frequently Bill’s areas of interest include system architecture, digital disrup- on these topics. tions, innovative uses of data, and the open source movement. pgustafs@csc.com wkoff@csc.com
  • 3. L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU M DIGTAL TRUST | VoL. 8 Digital Disruptions Leading Edge Forum 2008 Technology Innovations Powering 21st Century Business CoNTENTS 2 Why Digital Is More Disruptive 4 New Media We have met the new media, and it is us. 15 Living in a New Reality We will blend physical and virtual reality, improving both. 27 Social Power The power inherent in connected people surges. 36 Information Transparency What is observed by one will be known to all. 47 New Wave of Waves The sky is not the limit as spectrum goes digital. 59 Platform Makeover This is not your father’s computing platform. 69 Smart(er) World Smarter everything makes us smarter everywhere. 80 Thriving on Disruption 82 NoTES 93 ACKNoWLEDGMENTS Get all LEF reports by subscribing to the LEF RSS feed: www.csc.com/lefpodcast 1
  • 4. DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M Why Digital is More Disruptive over the centuries we have experienced at least a few principal disruptions play out, they will raise questions, alter behaviors, disruptions to “business as usual” and “life as we know it,” trigger new business models, and ultimately become part of including the Industrial Revolution, the Computer Revolution, the foundation of a new economy. and most recently, the Internet Revolution. Though these unstoppable and, for the most part, irreversible disruptions have brought unprecedented economic growth, the digital disruptions begun with the Internet’s launch at the end of the As these disruptions play out, they 20th century and responsible for a tremendous spike in global will raise questions, alter behaviors, productivity promise a second-round impact in the 21st century that we can only begin to imagine. trigger new business models, and ultimately become part of the Digital disruptions are about information and communication technologies that change business models deeply, and often foundation of a new economy. shockingly. These disruptions, on par with the telephone and automobile, transform the marketplace and society so completely that it can take decades for their full effects to be realized. The seven digital disruptions that will reshape 21st century Clayton Christensen first introduced the notion of disruptive business are: technologies in his seminal book The Innovator’s Dilemma. A disruptive technology, in contrast to a sustaining technology, 1. New Media — old media was about stiff distribution channels, introduces a very different value proposition than was previously big-studio creators and power brokers. New Media is about available. Disruptive technologies are often not recognized by 1 flexible distribution channels, self-created content and broad existing customers as something they need currently, so firms find participation. Content moves from isolation to interaction. themselves facing a dilemma: if they listen to their customers and Creators are you and me. Distribution channels vary and bypass the innovation, new entrants may swoop in and take over, overlap, so that TV comes over the Internet and vice versa. often appealing to a different market first but then gradually taking Prime time and media-controlled broadcast and distribution over the original market. Therefore, disruptive technologies need to are things of the past. When the Writers Guild of America be considered from a market standpoint (what market values the went on strike to obtain royalties for digital viewings, the new technology’s characteristics?), not a technology standpoint. chaos ignited by the strike — TV shows were cancelled, reruns ran aplenty — showed that progress with new media will not This report focuses on the latest disruptive technologies in necessarily move from business model A to business model information and communication technologies. These digital B, but more likely from A to chaos to B. This is likely to be disruptions are completely reshaping industry, much the way true for all the digital disruptions. the music industry has been rocked in the last decade by the advent of digital media. The seven disruptions identified in 2. Living in a New Reality — We can break free of the physical this report are all at various stages of maturation and, like the world’s constraints by venturing into the virtual world. music industry transformation, are works in progress. As these Augmented reality, a blending of the virtual and real, enables 2
  • 5. L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS us to move effortlessly in time and space, interact in new 6. Platform Makeover — Silicon has its limits, so it is only ways, and experience things like never before. Participate in natural that new methods are being explored to provide a real-world event like a NASA spacecraft landing. Fly across next-generation computation power, in many more places, a weather map of the country to see where it’s raining. Host and with many more purposes than today’s computers. a town hall meeting for 100,000 employees without anyone As the new methods emerge — nanotechnology, molecular having to travel. Control your data center remotely. Learn computing, quantum computing, optical computing — they from life-size virtual guides at a historic tourist site. The ability will challenge silicon-based business models and markets. to visualize data from numerous sources in 3D will enhance one key disruption will be in cryptography. Quantum com- learning and productivity beyond what we can imagine today. puting blows apart current encryption techniques, which are effective because it takes a long time (hundreds of years) to 3. Social Power — Leveraging the power inherent in connected factor a large number and break an encryption scheme. A people is disrupting how we locate and retain expertise, col- quantum computer can do it in seconds. When that day comes, laborate, advertise, lend money and even listen to music. New everything that depends on encryption, from credit card business strategies harnessing social power put a premium transactions to e-mail, will be wide open and unprotected on relationships and what others say and do, and tap the viral until new security techniques are created. capability of social networks as distribution channels for advertising, software applications and more. Enterprises need 7. Smart(er) World — It doesn’t take long to point out what is to “let people be people” and flex their social muscle at the “dumb” about our current technology landscape: applica- office (with blog posts, social networks, etc.), but within tions that don’t understand what we mean, rapidly-changing corporate guidelines for acting responsibly. With social technologies that don’t work well together, systems that networks infiltrating the enterprise as well as becoming the crash for no known reason, computers that you “talk” to by hub of one’s Internet experience, major disruptions are afoot. typing. A smart(er) technology landscape that understands language and can reason is in the works. With that comes 4. Information Transparency — Information that was once cloaked innovations in knowledge gathering, decision making and in darkness — inaccessible or nonexistent — is now available in predicting. Smart virtual assistants are the future of online droves, shedding light on previously opaque people, processes customer service, disrupting labor-intensive call centers. and things. This leads to more efficiency and fewer surprises, Semantics can be put to work to find expertise in the and can redefine activities such as criminal investigations, enterprise, solving problems faster and averting crises. product comparisons, driving patterns and, thanks to ubiqui- Semantics at the IT infrastructure level make services more tous cameras, overseas hiring. When enterprises know where shareable and organizations more agile, since they can develop their employees and assets are in real time, they can operate applications and manage change faster. more safely and effectively. People are demanding access to more data, on their terms, and this force will be disruptive as Many of the digital disruptions overlap, triggering new and enterprises and government agencies work to respond. more powerful disruptions. Virtual worlds are the next frontier for social networks. Social networks have a strong influence 5. New Wave of Waves — The communications infrastructure is on new media. Information transparency is a prerequisite undergoing a major overhaul as the Internet and new radio for a smart(er) world. New waves are a key enabler of infor- waves that are extending the Internet create platforms that mation transparency. New platforms will turbocharge all the challenge the old regime. A general purpose communica- other disruptions. tions utility has formed that obliterates the limited products and services of telephony, TV and radio that used to ride This is an exciting time. In the pages that follow, we examine on 20th century infrastructures. As spectrum opens up, and each disruption and its potential to redefine 21st century spectrum allocation eventually falls by the wayside, the business. Forewarned is forearmed; explore with us what lies air waves become fertile ground — some say “beachfront ahead and plan accordingly. property” — for a vast array of new services from new players, not just traditional operators. This sets up a perfect storm for innovation, where it is not clear who the ultimate winner will be except for the consumer. 3
  • 6. DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M neW MeDia We have met the new media, and it is us. When you’re on youTube, you’re looking new media in the to traditional media sources. The proviewer is prolific and eye. The new media is the ordinary person — you and me — garners an enthusiastic, if narrow, following. The proviewer creating and sharing life experiences through videos. It is the actively creates, modifies, shares and evaluates; this is “lean citizen journalist, the blogger, the podcaster, the basement forward” rather than “lean back” media. musician, the cell phone author. It is professional talent freed from the vise of Big Media. New media is consumer-driven, Are we returning to our roots? Some say that the new media interactive, social, customized and personal. People want to is renewing the art of personal storytelling.2 We are enter- participate, and on their terms — their content, their schedule, taining each other individually and informing each other their place. personally, not unlike how people communicated hundreds of years ago. New media is about entertainment and news — digital video, audio and text — delivered for personal consumption and In conjunction with this, video is exploding. Video is often customization, typically on a laptop, mobile phone, game considered the best way to tell a story or convey information, box or hand-held device. New technologies continue the new and the Internet and related technologies have lowered the media revolution, with consumers wresting more control from barrier to widespread video. Enterprises can convey more of media titans and enjoying entirely new ways of experiencing their corporate messages in video, and proviewers are becoming entertainment and news. as facile with video as they are with text. Video is becoming just another data type: ordinary, plentiful and expected. The Internet has become a global channel for new media, breaking down the strong-hold grip that Big Media — traditional So although new media is not just about video, video is a TV, radio, film and news producers — have on their content and very important part of the story. Let us examine the story by their audiences. The Internet levels the playing field, allowing exploring the disruptions in content and distribution that are others — you and me — to play. driving the new media revolution. This new media world, where we can interact with artists and TV (AND EVERyTHING ELSE) oN My TERMS journalists and even be the artists and journalists, requires a new way to navigate it all. The entire access experience is Created by Me changing and will continue to change, as the content itself Content is no longer the sole purview of big TV and film also changes. These changes will be of huge importance, for studios, radio stations, newspapers and magazines. Proviewers they are designed around the consumer, not the producer. generate content and are an entirely new source of creativity Whoever anticipates and meets the needs of the consumer and competition. There are many examples: youTube, CNN best will win. iReports and other forms of citizen journalism, six million blogs, currenttv.com, Apple’s Garage Band and cell phone This starts with recognizing that “consumer” has become novels. These new media put the individual in charge of creating an anachronism. yesterday’s consumer has become today’s content, at once personalizing, diversifying and enlarging “proviewer,” a producer and a proactive viewer. The proviewer the content mix. Some call this mass social media, depicted has become a new source of content and a potential threat in Figure 1. 4
  • 7. L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS Figure 1 T HE E ME R GE N C E A N D R I S E oF MASS S o CIAL ME DIA view time and most popular clips. Video can more readily be part of a mixed- media marketing campaign. Traditional Media When DuPont wanted to educate a Institutional Television Control younger audience about DuPont science and innovation and encourage conversa- observe Movies tion, it turned to video storytelling and Media Outlets used Brightcove to deliver the message. centralized Does Old Media Radio mediation Matter? DuPont hired advertising agency Denuo, a unit of Publicis Group, to create short- Print sh form videos describing the relevance of publi DuPont’s science innovations to every- distributed mediation push Shift day life. Denuo worked with Brightcove Social Media con to place these “Science Stories” on blogs tribu Syndication te Podcasts such as BoingBoing and SEED Network’s ne tw ScienceBlogs, streaming the stories in Us blog blog blog or Vlogs k Social dedicated players. In this way, viewers ed ge blog blog Consumption Forums could easily spread the videos in a viral network via commments, Blogosphere effects trackbacks, IM, empty center manner. (See Figure 2.) feedback, etc. blog blog Wikis blog blog blog Enterprise 2.0 Consumer pull Though DuPont has a long-established Platforms Control brand, with this effort Denuo helped DuPont connect with a new audience in a very targeted, different and relevant Source: Dion Hinchcliffe’s Web 2.0 Blog, Social Computing Magazine. Licensed way. The program generated tremendous under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. http://web2.socialcomputingmagazine.com word of mouth, with 25 percent of views generated from word of mouth and 75 percent of those aged 18-24 (60 percent of those aged 18-44) indicating they In the enterprise, companies are enjoying similar freedom to would tell an average of five people about the videos. (For become content creators. Enterprises can build and launch more on word of mouth, see Social Power.) DuPont made a their own TV channels, and get corporate messages to large positive impact on its target audience — 90 percent indicated audiences through video, audio and imagery rather than the videos were interesting and informative — using new media standard text. Brightcove provides an Internet TV platform to reach that audience directly. for enterprises to publish on-demand video and other digital media assets online. Whereas in the past it was cost-prohibitive “The emergence of new digital media channels has created for enterprises to communicate extensively, if at all, in video opportunities for any marketer to reach audiences in new, (it involved broadcasting or DVD manufacturing), Brightcove’s exciting ways and enable these audiences to share the content platform, delivered as a hosted turnkey service, makes the they view easily with others, amplifying the marketer’s voice,” video proposition cost-effective, especially for those serving notes Gary Spangler, e-business leader, DuPont Electronic and niche markets. Communication Technologies. Brightcove’s technology enables further distribution through If enterprises can bypass big studios, artists can too. Professional, syndication and viral video sharing; video content can be acclaimed talent can create their own material uninhibited e-mailed, embedded in a blog or put in an RSS feed, so the by producers and release it to a global audience, as with message gets out much further. Content can include advertising, Funnyordie.com, a comedy video site that combines proviewer and metrics can be analyzed such as number of views, average content with original exclusive content from professionals. 5
  • 8. DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M Figure 2 BRI GH TCoV E ’S P L Ay E R E NAB LE S VIE WE RS To S PRE AD T H E Wo RD A Bo UT D UP o NT ’S S C I E NC E STo R I E S Start of video features “freeze screen” that encourages users to initiate video play. oTHER oPTIoNS ACCESSIBLE VIA PLAyER MENU E-mail to a Access Direct Add to Blogger or Access Embed Code to Friend Link to Player Typepad Blog Post Player to Any Site Source: Brightcove NEw KId oN ThE BLoCK: VIdEo There is a new kid on the block, video, IT. Employees will bring video into the extends to the enterprise as well, where that IT needs to befriend. Traditionally, enterprise without CIO consent. For video will become more popular for little if any video has been allowed on example, an engineer might use a home such activities as training, marketing corporate networks because it slows laptop with a built-in camera to take and internal messaging. Hewlett- the network down and consumes so footage for a project and post that video Packard has a YouTube-like site, HP much storage. However, with video on an internal blog. Uncut, where employees post self- becoming a prevalent and preferred made videos about best practices and mode of communication on the Internet, Enterprises need alignment between IT experiences at HP — so you can see IT’s unfriendly attitude must change. and new media like video, just as IT had and learn from the engineers them- to ready itself for IM and the browser. selves.3 Video is becoming a first class Just like instant messaging (IM) and Although video had many false starts citizen, and IT needs to help this new browsers, video is poised to infiltrate with video e-mail, the ascent of YouTube citizen feel at home and prosper. the enterprise and do an end-run around signals that video is here to stay. This 6
  • 9. L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS Similarly, independent musicians can be heard and gain a Making It Mine following without a studio at sites like strayform.com. Aspiring In addition to creating original content from scratch, proviewers producers and actors can release short-form Web videos that are manipulating and modifying once-untouchable content. attract big audiences; one low-budget mini-series, “We Need Content is being served up more like raw data to alter for one’s Girlfriends,” which was released on its own Web site, promoted personal consumption. on MySpace, and later released on MySpace and youTube, has been picked up by CBS to develop as a pilot TV series.4 For instance, proviewers can create their own TV experience. Microsoft’s Mediaroom, an Internet TV platform that telcos The notion of citizen journalism and “microjournalism” is can sell, works with TNT and Showtime to let proviewers alive and well in an age of youTube, Twitter, digital cameras, choose which TV camera angle they want when viewing sports. camera phones and blogs. Minute-by-minute details that would This is a major departure from having the network decide, not make the 6 o’clock news are now on full view in video, though the network is still in charge of much of the action, pictures, text or a mix; for better or worse, no one’s actions like which angles are available to choose from. This idea puts are private. For instance, the nitty gritty of a political campaign forth the notion of informed media, where a program such can be captured for all to see, from pushing and shoving 5 as a sports telecast can be enhanced by statistics, online to controversial remarks by political candidates.6 Though this chatting with friends, stopping the action, and controlling type of reporting might seem superficial, it can spread like replays. Microsoft had a chance to put its viewer control on kudzu and have real impact. (See “Microblogging Makes Its full display during the 2008 olympics in Beijing, when MSN, Mark” in Social Power.) in an exclusive partnership with NBC, provided over 3,000 hours of live on-demand coverage of the games. Blogging in the enterprise, a form of citizen journalism, uncorks information and ideas as employees are given a voice to Proviewers can also create their own TV and radio channels. communicate their views and expertise directly, and customers Joost, Move Networks and others deliver TV over the Internet and strategic partners can comment back (or create their own so proviewers can slice-and-dice programs to create their own blogs). Blogging encourages a reciprocal exchange of ideas, channels, like a music playlist. BlogTalkRadio lets you broadcast fosters innovation through these frank conversations, builds your own radio station. (See Social Power.) loyalty and interest in the enterprise, and chronicles corporate history in a lasting, searchable fashion. Boeing and General Motors Another area where proviewers are being given a voice, literally, are two major corporations that have leveraged blogging is in televised political debates. In the U.S. presidential debates to build customer ties and even influence product direction. in 2007 sponsored by CNN and youTube, CNN took questions “Businesses can be bloggers too; this is not just a tool for the people submitted via youTube and made them the basis of the media,” says Anil Dash, vice president of Six Apart, vendor of two-hour televised debates. This was a new form of questioning: blogging software Moveable Type, TypePad and Vox. “It’s still by the general public, in their own words, with their emotions early stage for enterprise blogs, but they will become important and faces on full display for the candidates. These were not business tools.” prepared questions read by a professional moderator but per- sonal questions coming from ordinary citizens, uncontrolled by Then there is the cell phone novelist, who does an end-run the TV broadcaster or the candidates. around traditional publishing houses and authors by banging out short, clipped novels on a cell phone and publishing them With this new format the public becomes part of the national on a Web site. In many cases cell phone novels, popular in political dialogue, inserting itself directly into the discussion. Japan, are by first-time authors. These new authors are creating Internet technologies and new media improve the ability to a new genre — stories that are created a few lines at a time, reach out to constituents and hear first hand what people are often thin on plot and character development but appealing saying. Democracy does scale. to a younger audience raised on cell phones, the Internet and comic books. In 2007, five of the 10 best-selling novels Indeed, all the presidential candidates were pumping the in Japan were originally cell phone novels, which were later Internet and social network sites like never before (most of these published as books. 7 sites didn’t even exist in the last election). This is giving rise to a new grass roots voice and an audience the candidates 7
  • 10. DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M delivering low-budget films to a college audience wrapped in Internet technologies and new media a social experience. young adults are invited to meet online before, during and after a showing, to send comments to improve the ability to reach out to friends and producers about what they like or don’t like about constituents and hear first hand what a particular film.8 This highly targeted audience “will help to create, influence and ‘blowtorch’ content made just for them.”9 people are saying. democracy does scale. This is a completely new movie-going experience. Sites like LastFM are changing the radio listening experience. cannot ignore. It is safe to say the arrival of youTube, MySpace, Listeners on LastFM can build their own radio station, connect Facebook and other video and social network sites is changing with others also listening to their station, and create commu- the face and voice of politics. The fun has just begun. nities around an artist. These activities are impossible to do on a traditional radio station. LastFM turns the radio industry on Redefining the Experience its head, from a top-down broadcast model to a bottom-up New media is about not only making it mine but also extending community model. and redefining the experience. In the movie world, proviewers are gaining a bit of control over the most sacred of untouchable media, the movie. Technology one of the most powerful aspects by ClearPlay lets you filter out objectionable content while of new media is that it is a social playing a DVD without altering the actual content. So, you could turn an R-rated movie into a PG13 version for your kids. experience — the audience shares This is a powerful new capability that studios oppose, as it its opinion of a work readily and can changes the finished product that is viewed. However, this attitude fails to recognize that one-size-fits-all will no longer easily invite others to view or listen. do. Home is where people can express their personal values, and the more flexible the movie industry is in addressing a variety of values, the higher the viewership. In fact, studios could increase their revenues by offering different versions on LastFM people come together united by similar tastes themselves (rather than consumers or third parties doing it); in music. The individual chooses what to listen to and uses this business decision requires a significant change in mind that to connect to other fans as well as discover similar music set and artistic values. based on what the community has recommended. When an artist adds a new title, listeners can find it via similar music, Another sign of extending media content to others is the giving artists a new channel for having their work discovered. ability to add subtitles to a work. Technology from DotSUB LastFM is like a portal into music and artists that provides lets anyone add subtitles to movies and video clips in any a shared experience built on opinion, context and relation- language, making the content more shareable globally. This is ships. Social power redefines the media experience. (See another area of opportunity for the studios, which typically offer Social Power.) a few translations for a few movies but not many translations for all movies. I DEMAND oN-DEMAND As for redefining the experience, one of the most powerful Having media on my terms includes not only content but also aspects of new media is that it is a social experience — the distribution. Having a better on-demand distribution model is audience shares its opinion of a work readily and can easily imperative because proviewers decide not only what to watch invite others to view or listen. Microsoft’s shared TV experience or listen to but when and where. TiVo and Sling were pioneers lets proviewers in different locations chat online while watching in opening up TV access so that proviewers had more control. the same show. Blowtorch Entertainment, a new company, is Today there are many signs of media distribution opening up 8
  • 11. L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS PICTurE ThIs: FINdINg IT As more content is rendered in video, video content. Pluggd Inc. (now Delve through better analysis of CCTV footage. audio and photographs, search tech- Networks) and Digitalsmiths are two of IntelliVid’s intelligent video analysis niques originally designed for text need to many companies working on contextual software uses object-based searching keep pace. New technologies are making ad placement using advanced video to enable store personnel to “camera it easier to search images and sounds to and audio search techniques. Pluggd’s surf” to track a suspect or an object in find what you need, match ads to content, search technology, SeeHere and real time. The software also enables the and even cut down on shoplifting. HearHere, enables people to quickly user to assemble critical video evidence find the content they want within a in minutes to manage an investigation For years, digital cameras have given video or audio clip using a special and share critical information — video pictures time stamps, making it possible concept-search technique. Its contextual clips, still images and case notes all to search by date; in the future it may ad placement technology is based on integrated in a single electronic file — be possible to search by who is in matching ads to consumer searches, with store personnel and law enforce- the picture, where they are, and even including specific keyword searches. ment. The act of shoplifting becomes their expression, as advances in facial Digitalsmith’s technology, VideoSense, more transparent, and thus preventable. detection, geo tagging and expression digitizes video content so it is easily (See Information Transparency.) That is detection become commercialized.10 searchable “inside” and matches that the beauty of better search and analysis: You’ll be able to find Aunt Sally or search content to context-appropriate ads. understanding processes and leveraging for someone who is smiling or crying. the data at hand. In the world of closed circuit television, On the Internet, advertisers long for technology from IntelliVid is helping an automatic way to match ads to store owners cut down on shoplifting over open networks like the Internet and alternative networks Getting Out of the Box like cellular, reaching broader audiences. Netflix, who moved DVD rentals from the store to our mail- boxes and then our computers, has now pledged to deliver Further, as distribution opens up, it is happening at near zero that content directly to our TV screens. Netflix is bringing cost to the distributor. you don’t have to press DVDs or CDs, some 6,000 movies and TV shows, available to paying sub- or have TV or radio broadcast infrastructure. Instead, as the scribers of its Web site, to the living room TV via the Internet. Brightcove-DuPont example showed, everyone can play. The The company’s first partnership is with LG Electronics, which new media vision is that TV, movies and radio be available plans to add the Netflix service to a new line of HDTVs with for anytime, anywhere consumption and interaction. wireless connections to the Internet.11 Netflix’s goal is to be seen as a movie channel that can be accessed from numerous devices.12 9
  • 12. DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M Another player in the movie rental shakeup is VUDU, whose VUDU Box makes over 6,000 movies accessible on the TV screen TV and video content is getting out via the Internet. VUDU’s appliance does not require a computer of its original box. or cable or satellite TV — just a broadband Internet connection. VUDU’s system stores the movies and TV shows you rent or buy in your own personal digital library. (See Figure 3.) by players like Amazon and Apple (iTunes) that are making The writing has long been on the wall for traditional video movies available for download to computers and iPods, and rental companies to digitize distribution, spurred further Sony, a movie maker itself, that is making movies and videos downloadable to the Sony Playstation 3 Figure 3 RENT MoVIES DIRECTLy FRoM yoUR TV SCREEN USING game console. VUDU AND THE INTERNET Also in the video content shuffle is youTube, who is bringing its Internet video content to TV via a partnership with TiVo.13 Viewers will be able to access youTube content through their TiVos; content will be streamed (rather than downloaded) via broadband con- nection.14 TiVo users will also be able to subscribe to Internet video feeds using RSS, expanding the role of RSS from text to video and providing flexibility for accessing Internet video. The youTube-TiVo partnership is the Source: CSC result of youTube opening its platform to outside developers. If Netflix, VUDU and youTube are about Figure 4 TVU NETWoRKS BRINGS LIVE TV oVER THE INTERNET getting movies and other video content FRoM ARoUND THE WoRLD, VIA ITS WEB SITE oR THE to TV, others are focused on getting DoWNLoADABLE TVUPLAyER (SHoWN HERE) TV content to the Internet. Either way, TV and video content is getting out of its original box. TVU networks lets you get foreign TV stations and other video content live over the Internet. From TVU’s Web site, people in Pakistan were able to watch CNNi when that station was banned there. Soccer fans around the world can watch the latest soccer on Indonesia’s StarTV channel, and immigrants in the United States can watch Taiwan TV, TV5 Telugu from India, or Arca from Brazil. Source: TVU networks (See Figure 4.) 10
  • 13. L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS The platform uses peer-to-peer real-time packet replication broadcasters, and can broadcast up to HDTV quality. Called so that, in contrast to traditional streaming, as the number of “the ultimate in multicast TV,” TVU provides global distribution viewers grows the transmission does not degrade, and there of TV programming at low cost. is no need to account for additional traffic or boost infrastruc- ture. TVU has sustained over 150,000 simultaneous viewers on Many others are working to get TV to the Internet. Joost and a single Internet connection. TVU manages the overall network Move Networks use peer-to-peer technology but with different performance, with broadcasters controlling the rights, coverage, strategies. Joost, from the founders of Skype, stores content and schedule for their content. on its central servers and releases it (once) into the peer-to- peer network, where it is shared among users. Move delivers “To broadcasters, we are another transmission medium,” explains video as a standard Web object that is cached in small bits Paul Shen, CEo of TVU. “The broadcaster determines what to for easier transmission. Both offer broadcast quality program- broadcast and whether or not to charge viewers.” TVU shares ming ranging from programs like “The Gadget Show,” a British profit with the broadcaster from revenue generated from adver- television series, to segments from well-known U.S. shows like tising on the TVU platform. “CSI: Ny,” “Grey’s Anatomy” and CNN. Both aim to make it easier and more cost-effective than traditional broadcasting As of May 2008, TVU had 4.5 million unique viewers per month for organizations to get their video to a large audience. who watched over 11 million hours of programming monthly; roughly 300 TV channels are broadcast daily. TVU is bundled Hulu is a joint venture between NBC and News Corp. to provide into Hewlett-Packard’s Pavilion laptops and expects to have prime time shows from NBC, Fox and other TV networks on a global viewer base of 40 million by the end of 2008. TVU the Internet. Here is Hollywood taking the bull by the horns to has content from over 200 countries, including amateur self- control online distribution of its content. The site is intended NEw MEdIA ChANgEs ThE FACE oF AdVErTIsINg New media is changing the face of online Connecting the Dots that you are probably in a certain income advertising, for as content takes on The more relevant the ad, the more it bracket, and that it is almost Valentine’s new forms, such as mobile and video, is perceived as content and welcomed Day. Through Placecast, advertisers so does advertising. Online advertising by the consumer. Targeting online ads can recommend a shop near the hotel is a nascent area, but one thing is sure: through location and context is growing. for purchasing a gift and send that ad, advertising will continue to grow and Placecast combines location informa- called a PlaceAd, to your mobile phone evolve online, where the audience is and tion with contextual information to “put or laptop. Placecast gives anonymous the metrics are better. There is much audience in place,” as its slogan says. location information context that can experimentation and creativity taking If you are at a hotel in Manhattan, be converted into a revenue stream. place as companies seek to optimize Placecast’s software can let advertisers It connects the dots to help advertisers advertising in a world of new media. know that you are attending a conference, target their audience. Continued on the following page > 11
  • 14. DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M NEw MEdIA ChANgEs ThE FACE oF AdVErTIsINg (continued) Mobile ads, another form of targeting, Mobile is testing cell phone advertising mobile ads on an opt-in basis will no are ads sent to you on a mobile device, in a partnership with the social network doubt be required. Still, location-based customized to your location. If you are service Loopt, which lets families and mobile ads put advertisers a huge step walking down the street past a depart- friends keep track of each other on their closer to the customer purchase. ment store, you might get an ad on cell phones.15 Members of Loopt who your cell phone that jackets are on sale. have GPS-equipped cell phones and online ads go video Advertisers are salivating at this form have chosen to participate might receive Like content on the Web, advertisements of advertising because they get much an ad for a nearby restaurant or movie are evolving from text to images (banners) closer to the customer and the point theater. There are privacy issues, of to video. Video ads take on a new look of sale than if using mass advertising course, as people may find this form of and feel as they are incorporated into outlets like TV and newspapers. CBS advertising highly intrusive, so offering video content in different ways: • viral ads, which are appended to video BUy THE JACKET yoUR FAVoRITE TV CHARACTER IS content that is e-mailed around WEARING WHILE yoU WATCH THE SHoW • geo-targeted overlays, which are additions to video ads that reflect your location (for example, what stores are nearby in your state) • interactive overlays, which let you click to a Web site or video for more information • branded video players, which frame the content on your screen with an advertiser’s logo YuMe is one company offering these kinds of ad services;16 its ad platform will also power NBC Direct, the first site to offer free downloads of prime time TV shows. Source: ICE Innovative Technologies Continued on the following page > 12
  • 15. L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS NEw MEdIA ChANgEs ThE FACE oF AdVErTIsINg (continued) As downloadable video content increases clicking and shopping is a major distrac- spots and breaks, if any. Internet content — whether TV shows, short clips or movies, tion from watching the show, it’s sure is flexible and interactive, and advertising and whether to laptops, cell phones or to satisfy impulse buying — and the must follow suit. other mobile devices — dynamic video product company is selling direct to the ads can be part of the downloaded consumer at retail, not wholesale, prices. Key questions are: Who is in charge of content. On the belief that most people The ICE technology works on standard IPTV channel programming, and thus would rather have ad-supported content TV (cable, satellite) and IPTV, and will be advertising? Will there be a bidding than pay for content, advertisers are available for TV content on the Web. system for ad time, or will advertising gearing up for this and for being able follow an entirely different business to track these offline views for their ad Further, producers can change the model? How do we get IPTV, the Web metrics. Poddadies helps advertisers do products in the show based on its and television to accept and display that and has a system to change ads on sponsors. Technology from i3media, each other’s ads when proprietary, the desktop once the video file has been a consortium of media companies in incompatible video players and formats downloaded. Adobe also has a system 17 Spain, lets you manipulate individual make integration — and therefore an to change ads in its new Media Player.18 objects in a video frame. For instance, effective overall ad strategy — difficult? you could change a bottle of wine Stay tuned as industry, audience and shop the show from a Monte Rosso Vineyard label technology work out these and other There may be ads aplenty, but there still to a Seven Springs Vineyard label if online ad issues. lurks the age-old question: How effective that grower is sponsoring the show.19 is the ad? Especially in a world of time The proviewer can click on the wine shifting and ad skipping? If advertisers bottle to obtain more information and fear their ads are being ignored, they can purchase it. try an ad-less approach. New technology lets people “shop the show” and buy new ad age products they see on a TV program right Though online advertising is in its from their TV screen. If you like the shoes infancy, it is clear that advertisers are the actress is wearing, using technology moving from a scattershot approach from ICE Innovative Technologies, you to, ultimately, 1-to-1 marketing and can buy them instantly with a few clicks buying direct from the ad itself (no of your TV remote. The ICE technology more Web page redirects). The traditional provides a standard format for listing (TV) ad network, with neatly delineated products, presented as a menu next to spots and breaks, has given way to a the show, that you navigate through to new ad network supporting Internet make a purchase. While it’s not clear if content that features wildly irregular 13
  • 16. DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M to be used for marketing purposes and revenue generation, cellular networks. The producers argued that the digital arena making money from ads on the site and in the videos. Before is not mature enough to make a compensation decision. In Hulu, NBC had removed its shows from iTunes in a pricing dispute February 2008 a three-year deal was struck giving writers a with Apple; if Hulu, which launched in october 2007, succeeds, percentage of the gross from digital distribution, though this it will give networks more leverage in negotiating distribution could be mostly “symbolic” if revenue from digital distribution deals with Apple and others.20 is relatively low.21 VeohTV comes at Internet TV from a different angle, serving as The growing pains of new media are being felt by content a video browser that captures, stores and sorts free online video creators and producers alike as media industries continue to content. VeohTV has been described as TiVo for the Internet, calibrate against an increasingly digital future. with a similar DVR-style interface that lets you find video you want and watch it when you want (save video streams as downloads to watch later if desired). VeohTV integrates video sources across the Internet, so you can watch full-length on-demand is a powerful model episodes from CBS, NBC, youTube, MySpace, Google, yahoo and thousands of other sources. As you use VeohTV, it learns that is pressuring old thinking about what you like and makes video recommendations to you. ownership and rights to change. Challenging Old Thinking The new media vision for on-demand content will be in the making for some time. on-demand is a powerful model that LoSE To WIN is pressuring old thinking about ownership and rights to change. Digital distribution was a major factor in the 2007-2008 Writers Enterprises need to recognize that new media shifts power to Guild of America strike. The 12,000 writers from film, TV and proviewers. The business models that will flourish are those radio, who went on strike for three months and forced many that invite participation and give individuals more control. shows off the air, wanted stronger compensation for their works ownership is not the way to win. openness, customization in digital, Internet and other non-traditional formats, whether and personalization are the way of the future. DVD, streamed to a Web site, downloaded, or transmitted over 14
  • 17. L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 living in a neW reality We will blend physical and virtual reality, improving both. According to philosopher Immanuel Kant (1724-1804), people Virtual worlds and blended-reality worlds are powerful but can never know reality directly. We are, by design, one layer not yet fully understood. However, virtual worlds and virtual removed from reality, with our brains synthesizing external reality will play an increasingly significant role in our personal stimuli — sights, sounds, smells, tastes and touches — and and professional lives. How this story plays out is still unknown, creating a coherent experience. In other words, we experience but with more people populating virtual worlds and experiencing the world through a layer of perception. Today’s virtual worlds virtual reality in everyday situations, progress is being made as magnify this layering we do, pre-digesting data (stimuli) and the story unfolds. feeding it to us as a new layer of perception that helps us understand the world in new ways. We can detect and analyze In this chapter we explore virtual worlds and other expressions more, and ultimately make better decisions, because virtual of virtual reality including simulations, augmented worlds and worlds present data on our terms: visual, life-like, interactive telepresence. The new reality is that we live in a blended reality and 3D. This is far more compelling and comprehensible than that combines physical reality and virtual reality, improving if data was rendered simply as text. If a picture is worth 1,000 both. To probe this, we examine how virtual reality is taking on words, a virtual world is worth 1,000 pictures and more. properties of the physical word, and how the physical world is being enhanced with virtual reality. Put another way, virtual worlds offer the promise of “all media, all the time,” says Jan C.J. Jones, co-executive producer of Forest Rose Productions, LLC. The new reality is that we live in Virtual worlds, with their origins in online games, are not a blended reality that combines new. However, what’s different today is that virtual worlds are making their way into the mainstream, being applied to business physical reality and virtual reality, and personal uses that go far beyond games. We are seeing improving both. real markets for virtual worlds, new levels of sophistication in virtual worlds, and more real-world data being incorporated that delivers new experiences or addresses previously unsolvable problems. VIRTUAL REALITIES INCoRPoRATE PHySICAL REALITIES As virtual worlds approach commercialization — some estimate there will be over 50 million participants in virtual worlds by Second Life, the poster child of virtual worlds, mimics the real 201122 — they leverage their “game DNA.” Many virtual world world in that people (avatars) meet in Second Life, interact, acquire environments resemble and operate similar to a game, involving land, build houses and use currency (Linden dollars). Although rich visualization — 3D settings, avatars, objects — and collabo- it started as a social site, Second Life is fast being adopted for ration. This helps lay the groundwork for mass participation in business use as organizations explore its potential, particularly virtual worlds, where the notion of a game per se may be subtle what can be done in a virtual world that was never before pos- or nonexistent, but people familiar with games will know right sible. For example, experience the weather as a weather balloon away how to participate. as your avatar flies over a weather map. The world becomes a 15
  • 18. L E A D IN G E D G E| Fo RU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS science fiction playground where we are now in the simulation. in the future. Engineers could put a CAD model of a part on What if we were a tile on the space shuttle? Through virtual worlds Explorer Island, make changes jointly, and save the new model we can experience the rarely possible and the impossible. on Explorer Island. The engineers could see the model in the context of the larger system it fits in. For example, they could see where the controls of a spacecraft would be and open up a control panel to see where the part ultimately belongs. Through virtual worlds we can experience the rarely possible Elsewhere, Second Life is being used to simulate disaster preparedness and response activities by the Idaho Bioterrorism and the impossible. Awareness and Preparedness Program. What’s different about this versus other virtual reality simulations is the ability to construct objects and environments with others, build collabora- At NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), the impossible tive networks on the fly, and provide context for the exercises, includes providing a real-time experience of the Phoenix space- complete with buildings, hospitals, helicopters and people. craft landing on Mars. For the Phoenix landing on May 25, 2008, Coordination activities can be simulated, involving people, JPL streamed realtime video from NASA TV to Explorer Island, material, facilities, movement and routes. If you need to attend its property in Second Life, and had a replica of the spacecraft a meeting or view a presentation, you do so in the context of in Second Life. (See Figure 5.) People watched the landing the environment and with others, increasing your awareness in Second Life while engineers watched at JPL, the California of peer activities. Institute of Technology and the University of Arizona. “one person on Explorer Island cried because they were so happy Another Second Life project, by the University of Denver, incor- to be part of a NASA event,” said Tom Soderstrom, IT chief porates real weather data from the U.S. National oceanic and technology officer at JPL. Virtual worlds remove obstacles Atmospheric Administration (NoAA) into a large map of the to participation — you can now experience a Mars landing United States, where students can learn about weather in first hand — and give JPL a personal connection to the public a wholly new way: by flying their avatars through weather it never had before. patterns as they unfold across the country.23 organizations can also leverage learning by hosting a conference in a virtual As JPL experiments with Explorer Island for public outreach, con- world, as MIT did during its Emerging Technologies Conference ferences, training and collaboration, it has its eye on engineering in September 2007. MIT broadcast a portion of the conference live to Second Life, where it was watched by over 120 people on a virtual screen.24 MIT used software from Veodia to deliver TV-quality streaming video to Second Life. In a virtual world, people can navigate a conference or other live event through a 3D experience that enables them to interact with others via avatars. This is very different from watching a video of the event after-the-fact and alone (or attending the event in person). Figure 6 shows a virtual trade show hosted by the Everything Channel, where attendees could participate and interact in four Figure 5 The Phoenix spacecraft landed on Mars in Second Life, coinciding with the actual different venues. landing on May 25, 2008. Several members of Second Life sat on the lander after it touched down. (That’s a second lander in the background, hovering.) The Second Life audience watched the lander go through its entry, descent and landing maneuvers in real time, seeing video In addition to being a testing ground for from Mission Control, information directly from the Mission Controller’s blog, and pictures as learning and training, Second Life is being they came in. Source: NASA 16
  • 19. L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 Figure 6 Welcome to this virtual trade show. Each building in the middleground represents an area of interest (from left): conference center, exhibits, media center and the CopaCabana. By visiting each area, you can hear presentations and gather conference materials (documents) in your virtual briefcase. When you need a break, hang out at the CopaCabana, where you can chat with attendees. The trade show environment was created using InXpo, an open source toolkit for building collaborative 3D virtual worlds. Source: Everything Channel used for other real-world activities such as recruiting, orienta- to be started by dragging and dropping files onto the walls, which tion, marketing, co-designing products with customers, test- can then be collaboratively viewed and updated. Qwaq Forums ing floor layouts and designing dream kitchens. 25 Reuters has runs a version of openoffice.org and the Mozilla Firefox browser reporters in Second Life reporting on Second Life to the real and allows desktop sharing, meaning easy viewing and editing world, and reporting on the real world to Second Life. Also of Microsoft office documents and other formats such as PDFs. seizing on the interplay between virtual and real for news, the Being able to edit documents in real time, working together, is British police used Second Life in the highly-publicized case of a core feature. Madeleine McCann to help search for the missing four-year-old by posting virtual pictures of her.26 (This virtual-real detective Users can drag and drop documents from their local desktops work was taken to a whole new level on a TV show; see “Blended- to the applications running on the room walls, and vice versa, Reality Entertainment” later in this chapter.) and can review files in 2D and 3D, all while discussing topics using built-in text and voice chat. By linking rooms, users can To expand virtual worlds for business use, Second Life’s creator, move between them, like going from one meeting to another. Linden Lab, is working with IBM to create open standards for Importantly, the rooms persist, so the current state of a project virtual worlds that help advance the vision of a 3D Internet for remains intact. This allows users to adopt different working commerce. This work includes having protocols and standards styles; for example, they can leave work for each other to review for such things as universal avatars that can traverse different or meet interactively to review together. virtual worlds (instead of having to create a separate avatar for each world), and interoperable worlds that can be linked and CSC developed a proof-of-concept with Qwaq Forums, focusing traversed as easily as moving from one Web page to another.27 on solution selling (how to sell and what to sell), that was tested with 80 CSCers representing a variety of roles within the sales and Whereas Second Life is an open platform inviting anyone’s partic- business development community. Qwaq Forums was chosen for its ipation, another virtual environment, Qwaq Forums, is designed security, minimal hardware requirements, and business orientation. specifically for secure business collaboration. With Qwaq Forums, overall reaction was positive, with 90 percent agreeing that Qwaq users can quickly create a virtual room — team room, conference Forums is a viable technology for learning and business purposes. room, media room — from a template and customize it for meet- ings or projects. Each room comes with smart walls, allowing “We are opening the door to a new way for teams to collabo- applications — document editor, spreadsheet, whiteboard, etc. — rate and learn virtually by providing a highly contextual 17
  • 20. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS Virtual worlds are an important way to engage the new generation entering the workforce and help global, matrixed teams ramp up quickly to increase their productivity. environment,” says Holly Huntley, CSC’s global chief learning officer who sponsored the project. “Virtual worlds are an important way to engage the new generation entering the Figure 7 A Qwaq Forums virtual auditorium is used to present a workforce and help global, matrixed teams ramp up quickly surgical procedure. Left display: Miramar by Intel Corp. Right display: to increase their productivity.” Video feed by Clarity Creative Group LLC. Cleft patient model by BioDigital Systems LLC in collaboration with NyU Medical Center. CSC is exploring roll-out options for Qwaq Forums as a new Virtual auditorium design by E-spaces, n.v. Source: Qwaq platform for learning to support key communities and other enterprise development programs. Qwaq Forums is not an “either/or” but an addition to e-mail, phone, wikis, IM and tele- IBM Labs has created a 3D Data Center using openSim, an presence, providing hands-on collaboration (e.g., jointly editing open source virtual worlds platform. IBM provides the 3D Data documents) that the others, with the exception of wikis, do Center application as part of its virtual worlds services. “It’s a not. Qwaq Forum’s presence (feeling like you are in the same practical entree into virtual worlds, especially if the company is place with someone) is stronger than IM but not as strong as IT oriented,” says Michael osias, architect of the 3D Data Center. telepresence; it can be delivered through simplistic avatars that “There’s a real shock value when people first see it because connote a “get the job done” environment, meaning you don’t it’s such a compelling use of virtual worlds technology.” need to spend a lot of time on your avatar’s appearance. A neat feature of Qwaq Forums is its distance-sensitive voice capability. Users don head sets and speak through them as if their avatar is talking; a person can sound near or far away depending on where his avatar is in relation to yours. (Second Life does this also, but conference calls do not.) Intel is partnering with Qwaq to integrate Intel’s Miramar 3D information space technology with Qwaq’s technology. The result will be a new desktop visualization edition of Qwaq Forums that integrates 2D desktop applications and shared 3D information work spaces for large numbers of users across the enterprise. According to Intel chief technology officer Justin Rattner, “Intel envisions using the desktop visualization edition of Qwaq Forums to dramatically enhance the productivity of our Figure 8 Manage real data centers using IBM Labs’ virtual 3D global distributed workforce.”28 (See Figure 7.) Data Center. Use your avatar to roam server rooms in different cities, check equipment and distribute workloads. you can also run If the enterprise is looking for a focused application for getting simulations of space, power and cooling planning as well as disaster started in virtual worlds, a virtual data center might be the way recovery scenarios. Source: IBM to go. 18
  • 21. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 Through sophisticated visualization, the 3D Data Center simplifies creativity among Shell employees. The islands have a learning complex processes and data, including hardware data, monitor- center, laboratory, ideation area, 3D project mapping arena and ing data and financial data. By rendering computer equipment other business facilities. Unfrozenmind designed and developed in 3D and combining it with monitoring information like the the islands as part of its BrandNewPlanet 2.0 collaborative temperature of a CPU rack, the 3D Data Center presents a offering, working with concepts jointly developed by Shell’s hybrid visualization that is easy to understand. (See Figure 8.) GameChanger group. For example, you can identify hot spots (represented by a Tapping Location, Movement and Expression flame) and take action: move virtual machines to other machines Virtual realities about places are improving with an influx of that have available capacity, move machines to a cooler spot, real-world data. Google Earth gives a 3D rendering of the planet or even move workloads to another geographic site. All this can that can be manipulated, mashed up and drilled into as the user be done without being physically present. IBM’s Dallas Global searches for driving directions, restaurants, shops, parks, tourist Solutions Center was the first production user of the 3D sites and geographic features of a particular place. EveryScape, Data Center; the Swiss firm Implenia, which manages Figure 9 V I RTUAL Wo RLD PLAT Fo RMS — A SAMPLE commercial real estate, is also an early user. Both are P LATFo RM TA R GET USE HoSTED By oP EN SoU RCE running their data centers more efficiently as a result. S ECo ND LIFE Entertainment/Multipurpose Vendor No Collaboration in the 3D Data o P ENS IM (BE TA ) Entertainment/Multipurpose Self yes Center is done via avatars Wo NDERLAND Enterprise/Multipurpose Vendor/Self yes and instant messaging; IBM (BE TA) intends to add voice in the future. QWAQ Fo RU M S Enterprise/Collaboration Vendor/Self No P RoToS P H E RE Enterprise/Training Vendor/Self No Longer term, IBM is target- ing enterprise architecture M U LTIVE RS E Multipurpose Development Platform Self yes for virtual worlds; that is, 3DVIA Multipurpose Development Platform Self No build an enterprise architec- VIRTo o LS ture (e.g., operating system, middleware) in a 3D environ- CRo QUET Multipurpose Development Platform Self yes (BE TA) ment and hook it to a real system. TH E RE Entertainment Vendor No IBM started the 3D Data TW INITy (BETA ) Entertainment Vendor No Source: CSC Center in Second Life and switched to openSim for security and control purposes (i.e., for use behind the firewall). which believes being there is more important than getting Many enterprises dabble in Second Life and then progress to there, provides virtual streetscapes that give a photorealistic a platform that addresses their specific needs. A sample of view of a city at ground level, including monuments, stores and virtual world platforms is shown in Figure 9. buildings you can walk into. (See Figure 10.) other companies, like energy giant Shell, are focusing on col- The city of Barcelona, working with Barcelona Media, has laboration to drive innovation across the organization. Shell’s incorporated city data — waterworks, electrical data, tele- GameChanger innovation group teamed with Unfrozenmind communications wiring and building data — into an accurate, to create an archipelago of 3D virtual islands in Second Life large-scale, virtual city that you traverse by moving your arm in to stimulate internal and external collaboration, learning and front of a large projected display of the 3D city, your avatar zipping 19
  • 22. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS Figure 10 Explore the real world online using Everyscape.com. Here, travel down West 43rd Street in New york City to check out the Times Square area, using your mouse to advance or change direction (360-degree turns possible). The map at right tracks your position as you move, so you always know where you are. Source: EveryScape through the streets or sewers of Barcelona. The city is starting to the term “user-generated reality” to define the broad spectrum use the technology to coordinate contracting work; engineers, of creative, self-expressive, user-generated animation it enables. architects and other workers can see and study an area of the city before they start ripping up streets or laying concrete. In addition to map and infrastructure data, another neat boost to the virtual from the real comes in movement data for avatars. Sam the Weatherman, an avatar from Activa Multimedia who delivers weather reports on the Internet, cell phones and TV, and is the leading provider of weather forecasts in Spain,29 has a catalog of movements that are based on data from real movements by real people, collected and processed by Barcelona Media. (See Figure 11.) Sam’s realism, enhanced by his movements, draws people to information they might otherwise ignore. Reality helps virtual reality, which ultimately improves our reality. We know to expect rain today. Virtual realities about places are improving with an influx of real-world data. Figure 11 To bring life-like movement to avatars, Barcelona Media straps reflectors to a person’s arms, legs, torso and head, captures the person’s motions via camera, and maps the move- Another approach to avatar creation comes from Fix8, which pro- ments to an avatar. CSC’s Alex Fuss demonstrates at Barcelona vides technology to create enriched avatars that incorporate real- Media during a site visit in conjunction with a TTI/Vanguard conference in Barcelona on “New Form/New Content.” life features such as facial expression and voice. Fix8 has coined Source: TTI/Vanguard 20
  • 23. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 More Fun, Really! In entertainment, virtual reality is incorporating reality to give us new experiences. The hit video game “Guitar Hero” and its off- organizations are adding virtual reality spring “Rock Band” mimic playing music in real life. Both let you to physical reality where physical reality experience music by feeling it as you play the music with a near- life-size guitar or other instrument as the controller. you play alone cannot get the job done, or virtual music by following color-coded patterns on screen that match reality can do it better. the color-coded buttons on your guitar or other instrument, earn- ing points (like a game) for how well you play. Some say this will change how people get to know music, yearning to play a new song in order to experience it.30 The Nintendo Wii echoes this In cars, being able to see a virtual obstacle and successfully idea of “feeling” the game with its motion-sensitive controllers that drive around it can improve driver training and safety. A mobile resemble the real world, such as a pool stick or cooking utensils. vehicle operation and encounter simulator helps drivers see Nintendo understood that players wanted a more dynamic expe- potential obstacles and avoid them.32 The simulator uses rience, so it tapped into the user’s motion and haptics, not more a head-mounted display worn by the driver to show virtual realistic graphics or sound, to make Wii games more lively and obstacles against a real-world background. The driver sees the real. you can stir your virtual soup in the game “Cooking Mama: obstacle and responds to avoid hitting it; the car generates Cook off” or do real push-ups with your virtual trainer in “Wii Fit.” motion and visual feedback to the display, which adjusts the scene accordingly. The simulator was awarded a patent in 2006 Second Life played virtual host to the 2006 Grand Slam tennis and can be used to improve training, engineering and research matches to give fans a new way to experience the tournaments, about driver response behavior. In the past, vehicle simulators complete with near-real-time data from the tournament. IBM set have been too expensive for everyday drivers, and only the up the virtual stadiums and provided a unique viewer experience most costly simulators could provide credible motion cues; such as being able to watch live matches from different this invention, which takes advantage of recent advances in perspectives (eg., player, umpire, first-row seat). IBM calls computer processing and image generation speeds, creates a it v-business, or business conducted in a virtual space.31 This cost-effective and realistic vehicle-in-motion environment. experiment in fun is serious business. Imagine you are a tourist at a historic site, and a life-size virtual character you can see and hear explains the site’s significance PHySICAL REALITIES INCoRPoRATE and what it was like to live there 150 years ago. Researchers at VIRTUAL REALITIES the Georgia Institute of Technology are working on experiences As virtual spaces adopt physical world characteristics, so too that incorporate full-scale virtual characters that move and the physical world is getting a boost by adopting virtual reality talk, describing a site or tourist attraction in narrative detail characteristics. If virtual reality is one end of the reality spectrum, in situ. Don your special glasses to see and hear the 3D Sarah and the physical world is the other, this section focuses in between Dye tell her tale about the Civil War, and what brought her but towards the physical world, to see how virtual reality enhance- to oakland Cemetery in Atlanta, as you and Sarah walk the ments to it are making improvements. organizations are adding cemetery grounds.33 (See Figure 12.) Augmented reality makes virtual reality to physical reality where physical reality alone the experience much richer than reading Sarah’s story on a cannot get the job done, or virtual reality can do it better. plaque; it provides a brand new way to learn about and take in the physical site. Seeing Is Believing Being able to see ahead, or see something rather than read “our goal is to create much more natural and easy-to-learn about it, is a powerful capability. In the military, an unmanned interfaces to educational experiences,” says Blair MacIntyre, aerial vehicle can see over the next hill, helping troops decide associate professor in the School of Interactive Computing and whether or not it is safe to proceed. The UAV is operated remotely director of the Augmented Environments Lab in the GVU and serves as a virtual sentinel on the battlefield. Having this (Graphics, Visualization and Usability) Center at Georgia Tech. advance information in near-real time is significant for readiness “These interfaces align graphics and sound with real locations and something soldiers cannot do themselves. in the world, like a grave or a room. People interact by moving 21
  • 24. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS Better Science The science lab is being enhanced by powerful simulations that are able to process enormous quantities of data, such as from the Human Genome project, in realistic timeframes. Structure magazine reported on the first simulation of a whole biological organism, the satellite tobacco mosaic virus, showing in intricate molecular detail “how each of the million or so atoms in the virus and a surrounding drop of salt water was interacting with almost every other atom every femtosecond, or millionth of a billionth of a second.”36 In the future, researchers hope that bigger, longer simulations will reveal how viruses, the smallest natural organisms known, invade cells and cause disease. Collaborating “in” the Office Advances in telepresence help people in different locations feel like they are in the same room, changing the dynamics of ordinary video conferencing, which has less fidelity and in the past has Figure 12 An artist’s rendering of a historic tourist site augmented with virtual reality story-telling. Researchers at Georgia Tech are working on this. Source: David Stuart around the location. People have a much better understanding of where they are in real space versus virtual space, and we want to leverage this.” Another historical site getting a boost from the virtual is the Vietnam Memorial in Washington, D.C. An interactive Vietnam Wall has been created at Footnote.com in conjunction with the National Archives. The digital memorial is searchable by name, Figure 13 The U.S. government uses virtual people in 3D simula- tions to help teach foreign languages such as Arabic. The virtual hometown, year of death and many other categories, making it scenarios demonstrate gestures, action, facial expressions, visual easy to find a person (and then easily locate their name among cues and lip-synchronized speech, all key to learning the language. over 58,000 others when visiting the real wall). At the digital This scenario simulates interaction at an Iraqi checkpoint. Source: Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) Modeling, Virtual wall, visitors can post tributes, stories and photos, sharing them Environments and Simulation (MOVES) Institute and Vcom3D, Inc. with others globally. It’s not the same as being at the real wall, but it encourages learning and can be cathartic for veterans, for it “may even shock them to the extent that they come back been notoriously hard to use.37 Hewlett-Packard, in conjunc- to reality,” says one veteran. 34 tion with DreamWorks, has created an immersive visual display that surrounds the user, going beyond traditional video confer- The virtual is being used to enhance the real for many other encing. The Panoply display, first used to view car races, is now educational purposes. The U.S. government is using virtual part of HP’s Halo Collaboration Studio. reality to enhance foreign language skills training, particularly when learning Arabic for use at Iraqi checkpoints.35 Under- Using Halo studios technology set up in a conference room, standing gestures is critical to understanding the meaning of companies can hold face-to-face meetings with people in various spoken words. (See Figure 13.) locations, with life-size displays and real-time audio. These and 22
  • 25. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 similar displays are used extensively by outsourcing firms in simply pushing a button and selecting your call. on the receiving India to communicate with their clients in the United States end, rooms can be set up to answer calls automatically or manu- and elsewhere. ally. The idea is to encourage use through simple operation, in contrast to more complicated videoconferencing technology that CSC is working on a pilot project with NASA’s JPL to explore often sits dormant and requires more time-consuming activation. high definition video conferencing. The pilot involves three rooms, two at JPL offices in Pasadena, California and one at CSC’s Pasadena Innovation Center. The rooms are outfitted with systems from LifeSize Communications that provide 90 percent of the “Telepresence is not so much about telepresence experience of high-end systems (such as those saving on travel costs as it is about offered by HP and Cisco) at a fraction of the cost. (other tele- presence vendors include Polycom and Tandberg.) The lower having more effective meetings and price point allows organizations to outfit many more rooms solving problems right away.” and achieve the network effect of having enough systems to — Tomas Soderstrom connect with to make the technology more valuable, which results in better collaboration throughout the engineering ranks, not just for senior staff. “The LifeSize solution serves the most people in the most cost- Whereas traditional (standard definition) videoconferencing effective manner,” says Todd Lucas, director of CSC’s Pasadena typically connects larger groups of 10-30 people per room, Innovation Center who is heading the project. telepresence addresses a different paradigm, connecting small groups of 1-4 people per room for remote face-to-face collabo- JPL, which has 5,000 employees scattered in over 100 buildings ration. (See Figure 14.) This enables more personal interaction on its Pasadena campus, has purchased four systems since the than phone calls or audio conferencing, and more timeliness and pilot began. Some 30 other locations at JPL, other NASA centers efficiency than meeting in person. and JPL vendor partner sites are being considered for systems. “Telepresence is not so much about saving on travel costs as it is about having more effective meetings and solving problems right away,” observes Tomas Soderstrom, IT chief technology officer at JPL. The pilot uses LifeSize systems that support up to four continuous presence locations and large, 61-inch monitors that provide a face-to-face experience even in multipoint calls. LifeSize systems deliver telepresence-quality video com- munications (1280 x 720 resolution at 30 frames per second, which is typical for high definition videoconferencing) over existing broadband networks, including the Internet, with as little as one megabit per second of bandwidth, thus avoiding the high cost of dedicated lines. Figure 14 Telepresence technology is being deployed at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory to promote more meaningful dialogue and participation while minimizing the costs, down time and environmental impact associated with travel. The solution from LifeSize Communications enables The pilot emphasizes “always on,” meaning many rooms to be outfitted so that rank-and-file employees, not just senior staff, can benefit the monitor “sleeps” and is activated by from using telepresence. Source: Jet Propulsion Laboratory and LifeSize Communications 23
  • 26. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS Another twist on telepresence is mobile telepresence via a Figure 15 SHoPPING MEETS VIRTUAL REALITy robot. HeadThere believes telepresence is the “killer app” for robotics; the company’s Giraffe robot technology is designed to bring telepresence into the mainstream. The Giraffe is a tall, slim machine with a video screen and camera as its “head” and an adjustable-height base that extends more than five feet tall. The base is on wheels, so the Giraffe can be rolled to wherever you need it: an office, lobby, factory, center for daycare or elderly care, or room at home for telecommuting or watching the kids remotely. Be wherever you need to be.38 Clothes that Fit In fashion, the real world meets the virtual when it comes to trying on clothes. TC2’s Intellifit body scanner, a walk-in booth that does a 360-degree body scan in less than 10 seconds, could redefine the fashion industry in terms of how bodies are mea- Try on a virtual dress and show your friends at home via the sured, patterns are sized, and people try on clothes. The scanner Internet. Source: Andrea Mohin/The New York Times/Redux uses cylindrical holographic imaging technology to take a full body scan and create 3D avatar images detailing a person’s precise measurements. Shoppers can use the avatars to try on most advanced full body avatar for the consumer world. This is clothing when shopping online. (Send your avatar specifications becoming a real market,” says Paul Schuepp, president and CEo to a 3D printer and you’ll have a perfect mini-you! See “Platform of Animetrics. The ultimate goal is to be able to try clothes on your Magic: 3D Printing” in Platform Makeover.) customized avatar in a virtual shopping mall, having submitted measurements and your photo via the Web. Animetrics is also This is a big step forward from self-reported measurements, working with a company that will provide virtual hair styles for which Lands’ End, for one, has been using since 1998 and your face as a service at hair salons. enhanced in 2003 with 3D models (My Virtual Model) based on the self-reported measurements. If you’d rather shop in the store than by catalog but you’re The idea that you can go shopping too busy to try outfits on, you can try them on virtually. At the and interact with friends who can’t Manhattan Bloomingdale’s, in the Lanette Lapore department, an interactive mirror can show you a life-size image of a virtual be there — show them what you’re dress, like a hologram, that you “try on” by positioning yourself trying on and get immediate behind it.39 (See Figure 15.) The virtual fitting — the real you in the virtual dress — can be beamed to friends via the Internet, feedback — is something that wasn’t who can tell you, via text chat that appears on the mirror, if possible before. you look good in red. The idea that you can go shopping and interact with friends who can’t be there — show them what you’re trying on and get immediate feedback — is something that wasn’t possible before. The key to the Animetrics “GotFace” technology, which converts 2D pictures to 3D facial models, is being able to work in suboptimal In addition, you might want to have an avatar that looks like you lighting and with angled rather than straight-on poses. (See try on the virtual dress. Face creation and face recognition tech- Figure 16.) This is a big benefit when working with photographs or nologies from Animetrics are being used in Korean department surveillance video. Animetrics technology is also being used for stores so you can try clothes on an avatar that resembles you and national security and law enforcement, to better identify people see how you look. Animetrics is working with Korean company of interest from photo libraries. The focus is not on virtual worlds iFashion to personalize its avatar software. “iFashion is by far the but rather on visualization for better intelligence about a person. 24
  • 27. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 Figure 16 G oT FAC E ? Animetrics’ “GotFace” software converts the 2D photo on the left to a 3D facial model, which is added to an avatar to create the “real you.” Such personalized avatars are being used for trying on clothes virtually in real stores and, ultimately, in virtual online stores. Source: Animetrics Blended-Reality Entertainment club, and the real club had screens up showing the corre- Virtual clothing and virtual appearances make a neat state- sponding event in Second Life. When asked if I was bringing ment for virtual reality augmenting physical reality, but what my avatar with me via my laptop — the club has free Wi-Fi — I about when virtual reality is the star of a TV show? Here we decided I needed to sit down and have a nice cup of tea.” have the real TV show (though some question if a TV show is A bit perplexing, maybe, but certainly a way to broaden real) being improved with virtual reality in the plot. The result participation. is many twists and turns as characters weave in and out of reality and virtual reality. “CSI: Ny” aired an episode in october 2007 in which crime The TV show dramatized the tension investigators turned to Second Life to help solve a murder. between the real and the virtual and The plot involved impersonating avatars in the real world, investigating the real crime as an avatar, getting real leads in delivered a unique viewer experience the virtual world, searching for real suspects by finding their through a blended reality. avatars, and being attacked by a real computer virus inflicted by an avatar. In an added twist on the interplay between real and virtual, viewers could log onto Second Life during the broadcast and investigate the clues. The TV show dramatized Reliving Your Vacation the tension between the real and the virtual and delivered a Another unique experience could be showing how you spent unique viewer experience through a blended reality. your vacation, virtually. If you take digital photographs on vacation and upload them to Flickr or another photo sharing Another case of blended reality was opening night at a site, Microsoft Live Labs’ Photosynth software can combine UK nightclub. Notes Ben Machin, technical lead on CSC’s them into a 3D visualization that can be navigated like a virtual Qwaq Forums project, “I was invited to the club, which world. Relive the experience and share it with your friends. was also hosting an opening night of itself in Second Life. Back at work, you could relive a conference or trade-show The music in Second Life was streamed live from the real experience the same way. 25
  • 28. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS THE RESULT: A NEW REALITy both business and personal, of this uncharted territory. The barrier to entry is low; you don’t have to pack up and move As the physical world is augmented by the virtual, and the West with uncertainty but can pioneer with safety and relative virtual world gets closer to the physical, a new reality is born. ease. Early indications are that virtual worlds can provide a This blended reality has important implications for organiza- better understanding of reality and bring us closer to our real tions, as shown in Figure 17. selves. That’s having the best of both worlds. We will continue to see a blending of physical and virtual reality, where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. While some question the relevance of the virtual world to the As the physical world is augmented real — will virtual marketing and sales translate to real sales? by the virtual, and the virtual world — there seems to be a connection that will only grow stronger as both sides, virtual and real, explore and experiment. gets closer to the physical, a new reality is born. As in the early days of the Web, we are in the formative stages of virtual worlds. People are fascinated by the possibilities, Figure 17 T HE N E W R E A L I T I E S A N E W L E A D E RSHIP Mo DEL WILL Enterprise teams will form and disband based on the skills needed at the time E M E R G E B AS E D M o RE o N MERIT THAN (similar to online games). Look for flatter, more collaborative, more flexible H IE R A R C H y. organizational structures, where skills are more important than seniority. S U P E R - Co L L A Bo RATIVE WoRK SKILLS Collaborative gaming skills like ping quotient (connecting with others when W IL L B E PA R AM o U NT. requested), protovation (experimenting rapidly despite risks), mobbability (working well in large groups) and influency (being persuasive in multiple social contexts and media spaces) will be key.40 V I RT UA L Wo R LDS WILL ENABLE NEW Expect more life-like characters like Sam the Weatherman and smart avatars M o D E S o F IN T ERAC TIo N. to personify information and interact with us. V I RT UA L Wo R LDS WILL FACILITATE organizations will experiment with product development, communication, E X P E R IM E N TATIo N. learning and new virtual worlds themselves. IT E R AT I V E D E VELo PMENT AND Virtual worlds will provide collaborative development and testing environments Co - C R E AT Io N W ILL INCRE AS E . for enterprises and customers to create products together. Wo R K W I L L B ECo ME Mo RE LIKE Think scenarios and engaging with others to accomplish a specific goal. A G A M E . 41 Source: CSC 26
  • 29. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 soCial poWer The power inherent in connected people surges. As the Internet continues to evolve, it is revealing the power as distribution channels for advertising, software applications of our social side — our inherent drive to connect with others and more. and share. We have always had a social side, but the Internet is unleashing it in new ways with considerable force, showing SoCIAL NETWoRKS BECoME THE HUB that much can be accomplished by networked individuals with similar interests once they find each other. Social networks are becoming the hub of the Internet — the place you start out at, like the portals of the 1990s. Sign on to your social We see social power in action when new artists are discovered network and do everything from there: e-mail; surf; make phone on MySpace, old friends are discovered on Facebook, experts calls; share photos, music and ideas; keep in touch with friends; from around the world contribute to the Encyclopedia of Life, or coordinated online shareholder activism ousts a CEo. In the 2008 U.S. presidential primary race, MySpace held the first-ever social networks are becoming the online pre-primary right before the January 3 Iowa caucuses that launched the official election season. Later in the campaign, news hub of the Internet. organizations were citing the number of people on MySpace and Facebook linked to the candidates. A new grass-roots political dialogue has emerged online. connect with business people. MySpace co-founder Chris De Wolfe declares that “evolving online social destinations are laying the Why the sudden surge in social power? Didn’t the Internet groundwork for the new social web which we believe is becoming enable us to connect like never before? And then the browser? infinitely more personal, more portable, and more collaborative.”42 yes, but social network sites are making it even easier to Figure 18 shows a timeline of the socialization of the Internet. connect. Barriers to entry — to get on the Internet and find friends and Figure 18 E Vo LUT Io N o F S o CIAL ME DIA o N T H E IN TER NET colleagues, to become part of an interest group and work together — are even 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 lower now. As the Internet becomes more social- 1995 - AOL got people onto the Internet centric, social sites are becoming the starting point or hub of our cyber experi- 1999 - Yahoo organized it ence. Enterprises are earnestly attempting to leverage social power, both internally 2003 - Google made it searchable among employees and externally in busi- ness strategies. New strategies harnessing 2007 - Facebook made it social social power put a premium on relation- ships and what others say and do, and tap the viral capability of social networks Source: SocialMedia Networks 27
  • 30. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS Everything Gets “Socialized” social power has revenue power, and that social networks — those There are many signs of the emerging social Internet. Facebook’s informal connections we create internally and externally — must release of the Facebook Platform in May 2007 opened up Face- be cultivated and managed. book to outside developers’ applications, and later that year Facebook opened its development platform to outside social networking sites. The latter came in the wake of Google’s launch of openSocial in october 2007, to create an open platform for social power has revenue power. social networks on the Web (an open Web API). Applications written to the open Social standard can run on any social network supporting openSocial (e.g., orkut, LinkedIn, Hi5, Friendster, Ning, Salesforce.com), giving access to as many as 100 million Leadership, Innovation, Revenue users or more, in contrast to less than half that for Facebook “organizations readily see the importance of social networks at the time. 43 In March 2008 Google joined with yahoo and today,” says Rob Cross, assistant professor at the University of MySpace to create an independent non-profit openSocial Virginia and an expert in social network analysis. Ten years ago, he Foundation. 44 Around the same time, Microsoft opened up had to do a lot of explaining to executives about the importance Windows Live so users can share their contact lists (e.g., Hotmail of social networks. Today, he says, organizations just “get it.” address book) with five of the top social networks (Facebook, Bebo, LinkedIn, Tagged and Hi5).45 These moves aim to expand “People understand the importance of identifying and manag- social networks and reinforce their prominence as hub destina- ing their informal social connections — how the work really gets tions teeming with functionality and people of interest to you. done,” Cross says. organizations seek Cross’s help with that to improve leadership, innovation, revenue growth and change In addition to social networks per se, applications outside the in the organization. Having leaders think about their personal social network, from expense tracking to healthcare to fitness connections helps with succession planning and knowledge to music distribution, are becoming socialized. Expensr.com lets retention as people retire. Connecting the right experts, who you track your personal expenses so you can see where your may not be interacting, can often lead to new product ideas. money is going and how your spending compares to others. Being able to make more informed decisions faster can save you can invite friends and become part of different groups to manufacturers millions in annual operations. compare against (e.g., men, women, engineers, those in their thirties, residents of Atlanta). Patientslikeme.com welcomes people For instance, using social network analysis, one multinational with medical conditions who wish to share their experiences with petrochemical company reported that a single network of 60 similar patients, compare symptoms and treatments, and learn people contributed $5 million in savings a year by transferring from others. AWare Technologies Health’s FitAWare activity moni- best practices effectively within the company. In one situation, toring service taps social networking and friendly competition to an oil well expected to be shut down for four days was up encourage participation in corporate fitness programs. Surrge.com and running in two days because an engineer working on is a social site for music distribution, where fans are compensated the problem was able to identify an expert to help him fix for referring music to friends in the network (if their friends buy it, cutting in half the number of production days lost. Here, it), and communities of support are built around artists. having an effective social network delivered a hard, measurable return to the company.46 Even an old standby, photo sharing, gets a decidedly community twist from Shutterfly. And leveraging social for altruistic purposes, So the social structure of the organization can be optimal, or it TakingITGlobal.org is an online community that inspires young can hamper the company’s ability to get things done. It is impor- people to get involved in their local as well as global community. tant to understand that social networks have a structure, and that structure can be modified to improve performance by increasing productive interactions and decreasing unproductive ones. PoWER To THE ENTERPRISE Social power is not lost on the enterprise, either. What once may The Ties that Bind have been considered a “soft” topic relegated to HR is moving Social networks keep the strong ties strong, strengthen the into mainstream business discourse as companies realize that weak ties, and leverage your colleagues’ ties. In social networks 28
  • 31. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 it is important to know a lot of people, but not necessarily well. called WorkBook, to enable organizations to use Facebook Who your colleagues and friends know — not necessarily who from behind the corporate firewall. This could be the salve you know — will be key, as you’ll be able to reach them much corporations need to take a serious look at leveraging the more easily than in the past. popular social networking technology for collaboration. This recalls the idea of six degrees of separation: no matter how large the Figure 19 CUT T ING A FE W T IE S CUTS DE E PLy network gets, you’re only six people away from anyone else. Links between network clusters are critical; you only need a few strong ties to reach the External Connectivity in Pharmaceutical research and development person you seek. Similarly, if a few strong ties break, many ties are lost. Therapeutic Area External Research Scientists in Community Social network analysis illustrates how Company when a few strong connections in a social network are severed, many more connec- tions disappear. In Figure 19, the top figure shows that 12 scientists in a therapeutic area of a pharmaceutical company hold the bulk of the connections to academia. The bottom figure shows how the removal of the top four scientists cuts external connectivity by half (72 out of 142 interactions). Some 80 percent of the organization’s interactions with academia removal of Top 4 scientists reduces Connectivity are one-on-one, making management concerned not with whom the scientists Therapeutic Area External Research Scientists in Community are connected but with how to manage Company these critical sources of knowledge should key scientists leave. Bringing Social to the Enterprise To harness the power of social networks in the enterprise, companies are looking at sites like Facebook and MySpace to establish corporate groups. “It’s all about bringing social visibility and connection to stovepiped communities and content. The content and expertise already exist in the enterprise, but there is very limited Social network analysis illustrates how when a few strong connections in a social network insight into it,” observes Paul Gustafson, are severed, many more connections disappear. The top figure shows that 12 scientists in a therapeutic area of a pharmaceutical company hold the bulk of the connections director of CSC’s Leading Edge Forum. to academia. The bottom figure shows how the removal of the top four scientists cuts external connectivity by half (72 out of 142 interactions). Some 80 percent of the However, there are security concerns with organization’s interactions with academia are one-on-one, making management concerned consumer sites since they operate on the not with whom the scientists are connected but with how to manage these critical sources of knowledge should key scientists leave. Source: Rob Cross public Internet. one company, WorkLight, offers a secure overlay for Facebook, 29
  • 32. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS Another approach is to deploy social networking software see, for example, a colleague’s recent blog posts and subscrip- specifically designed for the enterprise. Universal McCann, the tions, his expertise and communities of interest, documents global media communications agency, is using NewsGator Social he has contributed to or added, and how he tags content. Sites and Microsoft office SharePoint to improve communica- Tags alone are a great clue for discovering others with similar tion and information flow across the agency’s 90 offices in 66 interests. By tagging an item with a tag from a community countries. UM wanted its employees to have their fingers on (e.g., Alzheimer’s Research), that item can be found easily by the pulse of what’s happening in their market segments and community members or visitors. throughout the media industry. The solution integrates well with existing infrastructure and security protocols, important “We are at the intersection of content and people, helping UM requirements that consumer-based solutions lacked.47 people discern what’s most relevant to whom” states J.B. Holston, CEo of NewsGator Technologies. “The view of the Social Sites features include tacitly built profiles, social network person is central to social computing.” graphs, communities, advanced tagging and tag clouds, RSS feeds, subscriptions and management, notifications, and col- NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory is experimenting with league tracking. (See sample profile in Figure 20.) It is easy to social networking software from Socialcast to retain and share knowledge as NASA employees retire and a new crop comes in.48 JPL is seizing on the social movement as a way to transfer knowledge to younger employees who are more familiar with social networking environments,49 and to promote collabora- tion across NASA’s far-flung groups. To encourage technology adoption, JPL is using “reverse mentoring,” where a younger person mentors an older person on the technology. And behind the scenes, there will be many architectural considerations as social computing becomes a core part of the IT infrastructure. Microblogging Makes Its Mark As social networking spreads to the enterprise, microblogging, a form of social networking, is also making its mark in organi- zations. During the California wild fires in 2007, residents used Twitter, the leading microblogging service, to get up-to- the-minute details of the fires. Here a social networking tool for keeping in constant touch — you give short, rapid-fire updates of a situation in real time via text messages from cell phones or PCs — became a life-saving proposition. At least two residents and one news service, KPBS News, were publishing Twitter feeds that Twitter users could subscribe to for the latest on where the fires were, evacuation details, and supplies needed.50 There are more than 50,000 Twitter users, doubling every two to three weeks, according to obvious Corp, which launched Twitter in 2006.51 Figure 20 This NewsGator profile provides a tacit view of a Microblogging reminds us to never underestimate the power of the person through the content they create and the activities they perform in the organization. Source: NewsGator Technologies social network to wreak havoc instantly — or, as writer and critic Howard Rheingold would say, to amplify the power of smart mobs. Twitterers protested a live interview of Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg at the South by Southwest Interactive Conference 30
  • 33. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 and Festival, demanding — while the interview was taking place reportage offered by news articles, microjournalism is a new — that the interviewer not cut Zuckerberg off or inject her own media form that brings immediacy and, paradoxically, detail views. “By the midway point, the crowd had grown vocally hostile, that traditional journalism does not. one veteran ad industry empowered by the ad-hoc Twitter network that had formed.”52 journalist twitters religiously on the nascent online ad industry, reporting colorful, behind-the-scenes observations and making a name for himself as a microblogger.53 Microblogging reminds us to never Microjournalism can be used to seed longer-form journalism underestimate the power of the social by posting the short snippets to a blog or Web site, and it can network to wreak havoc instantly. be used to create community discussion by distributing those snippets to a community of friends, such as on Facebook.54 A counterpart to microblogging is microvideo, where short snippets of video by citizen journalists or journalists with digital Microblogging’s immediate communication ushers in a new age cameras — i.e., not a full camera crew — can be shared on of “microjournalism,” in which journalists can recount an event youTube and other sites. (See “Created by Me” in New Media.) second by second, in clipped 140-character bursts (the limit A new microblogging service, Zannel, lets you post video, text of a text message). While obviously not the same as the full and photos via cell phone to share with friends on the Web. PEEr-To-PEEr BusINEss ModELs Here’s a simple idea: match those with and demand and the P2P nature of the studio, which eventually became Virgin money to those who need it. Sounds Internet, which lends itself (if you will) to Records.) VirginMoneyUS.com provides like the basis of a social network and cutting out intermediaries. Using a slightly real estate, personal, education and busi- a business. This is what Zopa.com, different model, VirginMoneyUS.com ness loans between family and friends, Prosper.com and VirginMoneyUS.com do. manages loans between relatives and facilitating the transaction between bor- friends — people who already know each rower and lender. This includes providing Zopa.com and Prosper.com take a peer- other. All three models speak to the same legally-binding documents, structured based, match-making approach to impulse: cut the bank out of the picture, repayment terms, electronic funds transfers, lending and borrowing money. The sites which often makes for quicker, easier, e-mail statements, a year-end tax summary, match those who have with those who more affordable access to capital. and ongoing customer support to both need, without the overhead of a tradi- parties for the life of the loan. tional financial institution and with more VirginMoneyUS.com (formerly flexibility to extend credit. Although in CircleLending), launched in October 2007 VirginMoneyUS.com facilitates loan general the sites limit the amount that and developed and hosted by CSC, is renegotiations and offers flexibility. “Our can be borrowed, and typically there part of Richard Branson’s Virgin empire.56 loans are a lot more flexible, so you can are more borrowers than lenders, 55 the (Branson is predisposed to P2P lending; miss a payment now and then and you concept of peer-to-peer (P2P) lending he got his start with a $10,000 loan can restructure a loan,” explains Asheesh makes sense given the laws of supply from his aunt in 1972 to build a recording Advani, CEO of Virgin Money USA. “If Continued on the following page > 31
  • 34. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS PEEr-To-PEEr BusINEss ModELs (continued) you default, your parents aren’t going to lend and borrow without a bank via a two percentage points lower than what a foreclose on you. There’s going to be a Web platform, but most participants do bank would charge. grace period for you to get back on your not know each other personally. feet.” As a third party to the transaction, P2P lending is in its infancy but is expected VirginMoneyUS.com manages the relation- The idea across all the P2P lending sites is to grow. According to Celent, a research ship and takes the awkwardness out of it. that borrowers receive lower interest rates firm, P2P loans in 2007 were estimated to and lenders earn a better return than if be $647 million, versus $2.5 trillion in U.S. This is a new type of added value: a middle dealing with traditional financial institu- consumer debt.57 That may be a drop in the man that deals with the social intricacies. tions. Advani says that loans among bucket, but it’s bound to expand as social Zopa and Prosper also help individuals family and friends are typically at least networks continue to grow. VirginMoneyUS.com is a peer-to-peer lending site that capitalizes on people’s social networks, managing loans between family and friends. Source: VirginMoneyUS.com 32
  • 35. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 WHAT oTHERS SAy (oR Do) MATTERS News Corporation.) The online destination extended the TV audience to the online community and provided a In an interconnected world, who you know, and more importantly, more interactive and lasting experience than a 30-second who your colleagues and friends know, matters. What they say TV spot (which, incidentally, went for $2.7 million). The more or do has real bearing on you actions. That is why word-of- lasting the experience, the more likely word-of-mouth will mouth advertising and accreditation systems have become so be generated. important online. Although word-of-mouth is a growing component in marketing I Bought It Based on Word-of-Mouth campaigns, it is not fully understood online yet. “The continued Word-of-mouth advertising via social net- works is taking off, magnified by the likes Figure 21 To P 10 S o CIAL NETWo RKING SITES of Facebook, MySpace and consumer- FoR MARCH 2008 ( U. S. , H o ME AND WoRK ) generated media like blogs. What people say, recommend and buy online can in- Unique Audience Unique Audience fluence more people more quickly than Site (000) March 08 (000) March 07 % Change traditional word-of-mouth ever could. Keller Fay Group, a market research firm Myspace.com 60,398 55,937 8% specializing in word-of-mouth, indicates Facebook 24,940 12,622 98% that although 90 percent of word-of- Classmates Online 13,599 12,991 5% mouth conversations take place offline LinkedIn 7,877 1,878 319% (face-to-face or over the phone),58 brand marketers have become actively involved Windows Live Spaces 7,852 9,076 -13% in online word-of-mouth marketing via Reunion.com 5,940 5,217 14% new media, metrics and word-of-mouth AOL Hometown 5,785 9,246 -37% specialists.59 Figure 21’s traffic data shows why online word-of-mouth has such Club Penguin 4,623 3,482 33% potential. According to Nielsen online, AOL Community 3,229 4,640 -30% MySpace alone had over 60 million Buzznet.com 2,717 1,822 49% unique visitors in March 2008, and Facebook unique visitors skyrocketed 98 percent in March 2008 from the Source: Nielsen Online previous year.60 That is one reason why Super Bowl ads were officially placed advancement of new word-of-mouth technologies is creating on MySpace in 2008. The Super Bowl is the preeminent crosscurrents among alternative media strategies, as evidenced TV advertising event of the year in the United States. For by Facebook’s recent attempt to bridge the gap between the first time, the National Football League and the TV social networking and WoM marketing,” says Patrick Quinn, broadcaster, Fox Sports, included MySpace space as part CEo of PQ Media.62 of the advertising. 61 (Fox Sports and MySpace are part of This is a reference to Facebook’s botched launch of Beacon, which automatically shared Facebook members’ Web surfing activities with their friends and family — a sort of forced what people say, recommend word-of-mouth. Beacon looked promising but crossed the line in terms of privacy. Facebook did an about-face and buy online can influence more and made Beacon opt-in rather than opt-out after strong people more quickly than traditional user protest. Clearly, word-of-mouth is a potent force to be used with care. (For more on privacy and transparency, word-of-mouth ever could. see Information Transparency.) 33
  • 36. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS A site dedicated to word-of-mouth shopping is ThisNext.com. ment industry had threatened to sue Digg.) Digg withdrew Members recommend products and services to each other, its ban (not clear if for better or worse — that depends on from jewelry to sports equipment to books to toys. Members your point of view about fair rights use).63 As Jean-Jacques can organize their recommendations into something akin to Rousseau theorized in 1762, “a perfect society would be a playlist called a shopcast; you might have a shopcast for controlled by the ‘general will’ of its populace.”64 But we remodeling or cooking or golfing. People with similar interests are not perfect, and the will of the populace — the social can see what you recommend, or they can defer to the collec- network — may not always be right. tive wisdom of the community. In the end, it’s all about giving and receiving advice in a trusted group. • Does the work-life balance lose balance? With the social network as the hub, personal and professional activities How Do Others Rate Me? could be so intermingled that you can’t relax or give quality Formal rating systems that vouch for someone or something time to either. Time management, and supporting tools, online take full advantage of the power of social networks. It will be critical. all started with commercial ventures like Amazon’s “friends and favorites” and eBay’s reputation system rating sellers. • Whither the 20-year-olds? When 20-somethings leave People would rate products (Amazon) and their purchase college, will they stay on Facebook? Does the social experience (eBay) for the benefit of others and, ostensibly, network phenomenon have longevity or is it primarily to improve what or who was being rated. for a younger demographic? While certain sites may target a younger audience, the power and reach of social networks Now we have systems like those from Slashdot and Digg will continue to grow, especially in vertical social networks that take community-generated accreditation to a new level. (i.e., those geared to specific groups like triathletes — see In both systems, members rate articles on their quality, with Mosaic co-creator Marc Andreessen’s latest undertaking, the highest-rating entries rising to the top of the site. These ning.com). Though 20-somethings may migrate to a different systems provide context and relevance to information based platform, the drive to connect socially is inherently human on how people in a related group act. and won’t go away. Although many benefit from such collective wisdom, there is Social Power and Enterprise Responsibility always the risk that myopia could set in. The danger of an Thus, organizations need to explore and leverage social power accreditation system, reputation system or social network in for their benefit. organizations have a choice: (1) leverage con- general is that people become insular and don’t think outside sumer social networking sites, benefit from an immediate and the group. These systems act as filters, and good ideas may already established employee network, and manage the risk with not always filter through. Related to this, the group may be secure overlays and enterprise governance programs; (2) imple- inherently biased. Be careful to think for yourself and weigh ment an internal corporate social network and eliminate many your thoughts against those of the group. (For more on of the security risks inherent with consumer sites, but lose the collective wisdom, see Smart(er) World.) power of the immediacy of the consumer sites and force people to maintain yet another social networking profile; or (3) follow a hybrid strategy that merges consumer and corporate social WHERE Do WE Go FRoM HERE? networks in ways useful to the individual. Though social networks are here to stay, there are some questions to consider: once the organization has decided which approach to pursue, it will need to establish a governance model to ensure respon- • What happens if the social network turns against you? The sible use of the social networking tools. This includes guidelines outcome could go either way. The Beacon faux pas showed for appropriate use, transparency, proprietary and confidential the power of the social network to change a Facebook information, regulatory compliance and legal discovery. Addi- policy (for the better, most would say). Digg.com was tionally, organizations will need to consider and create provisions successfully challenged by its members when Digg tried to protect employee privacy. This is especially important for to ban them from posting a software code that helps people companies with employees in Europe, where privacy laws are illegally download certain HD DVD movies. (The entertain- stricter than in the United States. Finally, organizations consider- 34
  • 37. DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS M L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU LEA DI NG EDGE |FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 ing the use of social networking need to create a monitoring Another question is: Can employees import external groups capability. Depending on how widespread use of the network into their corporate social network? you might want to create is, this can range from a member of the security team reviewing a “bike to work” community on the corporate site but invite content online to setting up tools to monitor performance and some non-work friends to join. This raises issues about access for unauthorized use. non-employees who have been added to a corporate group. But what exactly is unauthorized use? NewsGator believes The reality today is that work and personal life intertwine organizations embarking on a social networking project need heavily for most employees. Many workers already use company to get early buy-in on what will be accepted. once employees systems like e-mail for non-work activities. This is going to have an easy way to create content that is visible to all other happen with social networking systems too. The challenge is employees, it’s too late to decide what will be done about an to strike a balance that satisfies employees without detracting inappropriate blog post. This doesn’t mean that companies from organizational performance. “We will evolve towards some should write 20-page “appropriate use” policies that they sort of ‘return on attention’ to measure these initiatives,” predicts e-mail to every employee. In general, a couple of sentences J.B. Holston of NewsGator. “Successful initiatives will be those should suffice to point out that (1) the tools are provided where the newly-created social networks vibrate with activity to make the company better and (2) employees should use and positive performance.” their best judgment. Virtual Worlds: The Next Social Frontier As organizations test how to leverage social power among employees, partners and clients against the backdrop of global organizations need to establish sourcing and distributed teams, they must also realize that social networks are a moving target. The next frontier for a governance model to ensure social networks, in terms of technology platform, is virtual responsible use of social worlds. Right now a Facebook or a MySpace is easier to join than a Second Life — for instance, no high-resolution graphics networking tools. hardware is required, no avatar needs to be created and manipulated. But virtual worlds are coming in force to the Internet (See Living in a New Reality), and being social in Similarly, the management team should come to grips with the nature, they are the logical next step for social networks. “fun” side of a social networking project. Will it be acceptable organizations improving their social literacy must consider for users to form communities around non-work topics? Will virtual worlds as well. this be encouraged? Will non-work content be emphasized or discouraged? Successful social networking projects always need some element of enjoyment for the end user. Deciding on the appropriate level and means is an important step to take consciously in the beginning of the project and adjust as needed over time. This has a lot to do with the management team getting comfortable with social networking. The hybrid strategy raises additional questions such as: Can employees add widgets (self-contained pieces of code) from outside the company to their behind-the-firewall personal pages? This can make the personal page more relevant and fun, but there are security and appropriate content consider- ations. Some companies are considering managing their own widget galleries (or relying on third parties to perform this function) to address these sorts of issues. 35
  • 38. DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M inforMation transparenCy What is observed by one will be known to all. In May 2008 a stolen laptop was found and the criminals were Such information transparency has powerful implications for caught when the owner realized she could operate the laptop’s individuals and organizations. More information more available camera remotely to see who was using it. The standard-issue is yielding new insights, visibility into enterprise operations camera, intended for business and recreational use, was key to is improving performance, expectations about information identifying the suspects.65 The owner leveraged the power of availability are rising, and software tools themselves are the Internet, and the devices and applications connected to it, becoming more transparent. to gather information about the suspects and crack the case. MoRE INFoRMATIoN MoRE AVAILABLE Today there are countless examples of how information that was once not available is, and how that information is shedding A vast collection of consumer applications and technologies, light on previously opaque people, processes and things. powered by the Internet, is delivering an information ecosystem Everything from price comparisons (farecast.com) to com- that yields transparency about ourselves, our processes and our pany organization charts (orgchart.forbes.com) to hidden things. (See Figure 22.) home-buying costs (feedisclosure.com) to the dirtiest hotels (tripadvisor.com/dirtyhotels) is on the Web for public con- Figure 22 T H E INFo RMAT Io N E CoSySTEM sumption. Even salaries, the most sacrosanct of information, yIE LDS T RANS PARE NCy are being revealed (glassdoor.com). As John Taylor, technology evangelist for the Educational Testing Service and former chief • Who you are: fingerprints, iris scans, face recognition, technology officer of DuPont, has said for years, “There are no voice analyzers, gait analyzers, typing analyzers, DNA secrets in a wired society.” tests, ID cards • Where you are: GPS, cameras Information transparency is largely driven by technology, but • What you are doing: Twitter, MSN Messenger, AIM, the law is also an important factor. Regulations like Sarbanes- ICQ, Sametime oxley mandate stronger financial disclosure and “transparency” • What you are working on: oDesk of financial dealings. Democracies in general favor information • What you are holding: RFID tags, QR bar codes transparency, whereas repressive governments with a history of censorship do not. China’s Tiananmen Square massacre in • What you are sharing: social networks 1989 and Russia’s attempted coup in 1991 were not reported • What others are collecting: data aggregator sites on state news outlets but reached the world nonetheless via • What others think: opinion Web sites the Internet. Tyranny made transparent is tyranny defeated. • What’s in your house: eBay China and Russia have gone on to open up communications and their markets. • What’s in the world’s knowledge repository: Google • What’s the price: bot sites that compare prices Today we operate in a global marketplace, yet ironically, because • What’s the code: open source of the Internet and information transparency, it is almost like • What’s the application: Web Services, mash-ups we’re living in a small town, where everyone knows everything • What are my resources: peer-to-peer about everyone. What is observed by one will be known to all. Source: CSC 36
  • 39. L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS Look at Web sites that provide detailed product information. Just like these unfiltered opinions, stories by citizen journalists on For used car buyers, CARFAX provides vehicle history reports CNN’s iReport.com are unfiltered and unedited. If CNN uses an so buyers can know if a car or truck has been in an accident iReport, it vets the story first, stamps it “on CNN,” and shows the before they buy it. CARFAX generates reports on demand based story on TV or CNN.com (e.g., the iReport page). But on iReport.com on the vehicle identification number (VIN), drawing from its stories are available immediately when iReporters post them. database of over five billion records from 20,000 data sources. iReport.com is about reporting all the news that doesn’t make the Competitors are working with auto manufacturers to tag every news, and in so doing makes the world a little more transparent. part of the car at birth and relate it to the car’s VIN, making the car’s parts traceable through the car’s life, as has been Seeing It Like It Is done with airplanes for years. Also making the world a little more transparent is research by University of Toronto professor Steve Mann, who for 30 years has been inventing, designing, building and wearing cyborglogging devices that capture one’s every movement and conversation. Mann’s cyborglogger system (“glogger” for short) has more than “There are no secrets in a wired society.” 28,000 users who capture, record, index and share their lives — John Taylor online to see better and benefit from increased personal safety and reduced crime. Users can get cheaper life insurance rates because they can collect evidence of wrongdoing directed at The result of this transparency is better maintenance and more them — not unlike using surveillance cameras and security locks confident buyers, who know the history of their car’s parts and in a store or home to reduce risk. whether or not a part is an original. Currently, the only place build records exist is on the vehicle sticker at the dealership. Mann wears special electric glasses (his EyeTap invention) Without that sticker, it is very difficult to recreate the car’s that capture his life as it happens. His wearable computer history in terms of components and features. In the future, functions like a “black box” flight recorder in that it captures everything from parts, service records, photos of the car over physiological readings such as ECG (electrocardiogram), EEG time, and history of the car’s owners (bachelor or family with (electroencephalogram) and the like. Users can review their two kids and a dog) could be tied to the VIN number and ECG data, see a spike, and check their cyborglogs to see accessed via a social network site dedicated to cars. what caused the spike. (Was the person talking to an in-law?) Everything the user sees and experiences can be captured Flightstats.com gives on-time percentages for each plane flight and shared on the Internet for all to see (with controls). you consider, as well as current flight status for particular flights, routes and airports. Data that existed but was unavailable is In addition to healthcare applications, Mann has experimented now readily available to consumers, who can access it flight- with having first responders use the technology (see the building by-flight as they prepare to buy tickets. Air travelers can I’m going in and give me orders) and even shoppers (which make more informed ticket decisions and purchase their bananas do you want?). It is not unlike the idea of retail stores tickets from any number of sites that compare prices and having complete video footage of a person’s shopping experi- find the lowest fares — again, information that was not ence to mine for marketing purposes. previously readily available — including Farecast, Expedia, Travelocity and orbitz. Computer pioneer Gordon Bell’s digital archive at Microsoft Research is an example of a cyborglog that builds on Mann’s ideas Telling It Like It Is of a life-long health record that could be combined with others’ on orbitz you can report what you actually see at the airport, life-long data for scientific, historical and other research. such as flight delays and long security lines, in real time via your cell phone. This takes transparency to a new level because the Shorter term and less all-encompassing, companies are using airlines may not yet be reporting what you are experiencing. cameras to monitor and record daily activities of employees. This “man on the street” feedback puts pressure on corporations oDesk Corporation, which assigns contract programmers, Web to tell the truth and rectify problems quickly. Ditto for the designers and project managers from India, Russia and around countless consumer opinions on the Web. the world to jobs, allows employers to audit employee activities 37
  • 40. DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M in real time via screen shots and Webcam shots that let you see, literally, what your team members are working on. Employers use this visibility to spot-check code, see when the contractor is working, and find out if the contractor is getting stuck on any tasks. Though on-the-job privacy will increasingly be a concern as more data about workers is collected, this level of transparency gives employers added confidence to hire and manage remote teams from a global workforce. All this comes against the backdrop of a proliferation of cameras on the Internet (recall the beginning of this chapter), as well as cameras in public spaces and on roads. These cameras are making people and processes more transparent and providing better public safety. In addition, sensors serving as cameras for the body are making our bodily processes more transparent. A continuous glucose monitoring system from Medtronic that uses a sensor under the Figure 23 Medtronic’s continuous glucose monitoring system, skin reports glucose levels every five minutes, providing 100 called the Guardian REAL-Time System, uses a sensor under the times more information than conventional glucose monitoring skin and a transmitter (top) to send data every five minutes to a and thus helping diabetics avoid high and low glucose levels. 66 monitor (bottom). Diabetics can keep close track of their blood sugar level, avoiding high and low levels. Source: Medtronic, Inc. (See Figure 23.) More information means better decision making because we can “see” what the body is doing in a timely manner. FINdINg BALANCE: TrANsPArENCy VErsus PrIVACy Transparency is here to stay, but trans- sensors in hotel refrigerators that negotiations. We accept cameras in parency can be a double-edge sword, automatically collect precise informa- stores and on street corners. However, providing benefits at a cost. Individuals tion about our drinking habits. However, the U.S. government demanded that and organizations need to strike a balance the National Basketball Association Google withdraw images from Google between transparency and the following: Players Association refused to allow Street View that it took from public TV broadcasters to put RFID chips in streets near U.S. military bases, claiming • Privacy: Constant surveillance and players’ sneakers, fearing this would threats to national security.67 Privacy constant data collection may at some reveal players slowing down over their takes a subordinate role when it’s point cross the privacy line. We accept careers and thus hamper contract a matter of safety, whether against Continued on the following page > 38
  • 41. L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS FINdINg BALANCE: TrANsPArENCy VErsus PrIVACy (continued) terrorism or healthcare errors. If it’s • Fraud: It may be true that on the • Managing your own transparency: This a matter of saving my life versus my Internet there are no secrets, but will be increasingly important but privacy, it’s an easier decision to want there may also be more lies. It could difficult. Companies search the your information shared. be that a certain amount of deception Internet to vet prospective employees; is necessary to maintain privacy in candidates entering the workforce Still, as computers collect sensitive a transparent environment. may find themselves trying to explain information from us and even begin away embarrassing blogs, comments to decipher our emotions and what • Knowing too much: With transparency, and Web site content created in their our words mean (see Smart(er) it may be possible to know too much. salad days. Internet content often World), we know this information For example, insurers may not cover remains long after the user has gone can be compromised or lost. Paul you or employers may not hire you dormant or even closed an account, Saffo, director at the Institute for if they know you are sick or at risk. so beware of what you say on the Future, believes we will have Thus people may avoid getting Facebook, MySpace and elsewhere.70 to pay for what we want to keep tested to keep their medical records private.68 Further, we will have to clean (and insurers or employers Overall, transparency is good — more relinquish any expectations of privacy unaware). In this case knowing too knowledge, more informed decisions, in public places, creating tension much can hurt, even though putting more innovation — but you have to for government agencies and others off knowing can hurt much more manage it and stay vigilant. who operate there. later.69 ENTERPRISE VISIBILITy: ILLUMINATING oPERATIoNS In the future, everyone and everything In the future, everyone and everything will be tracked, from will be tracked, from employees employees escaping a fire in the workplace, to equipment moving underground, to oil flowing through a pipeline, to widgets escaping a fire in the workplace, coming off the assembly line. Information will be presented to equipment moving underground, visually, accurately, in (near) real time. Such enterprise visibility (transparency) will illuminate operations, bringing new levels to oil flowing through a pipeline, to of safety, efficiency and innovation to the organization. widgets coming off the assembly line. Enterprise visibility is the ability to “see” all the organization’s assets: who and what, where and when. It includes monitoring, 39
  • 42. DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M CSC has created such a system to track employees both inside and outside, integrating RFID technology (inside tracking) and GPS technology (outside tracking). The system uses accurate 3D depictions of geospatially-located buildings and infrastructure (e.g., pipelines, transmission lines, rail lines), which you can fly over and through to locate employees in real time, be they inside conference rooms or outside taking a break. (See Figure 24.) The system, which also tracks assets, uses latitude, longitude and altitude to pinpoint a subject’s location. Knowing where people and assets are is critical for safety, especially in dangerous or harsh environments. This is particularly true in the mining industry, where enterprise visibility of mobile equipment is sorely needed. In underground Figure 24 This visualization shows exactly where employees are mining, vehicles and people have been difficult to track. This (in their cubicles) using CSC’s enterprise visibility real-time tracking is because technologies such as RFID have not worked well technology. Part of the building has become transparent so you can in subterranean areas. However, technology advances in RFID see the people or things being tracked. The technology integrates RFID (for tracking the people inside) and GPS (for exterior location) devices have now improved dramatically, enabling systems to into a single presentation platform. Source: CSC be designed and developed that were not possible in the past. tracking, identifying, classifying and assigning attributes to a CSC has deployed an underground RFID system in a mine person, vehicle, fixed asset or infrastructure — whether stationary in Cannington, Australia for BHP Billiton, the world’s largest or moving. In general, enterprise visibility systems combine RFID, producer of silver and lead. The Underground Traffic Information GPS and imagery to track assets visually in mapped locations. System is the first system of its kind using RFID in an underground environment to inform vehicle operators about where nearby Knowing Exactly Where You Are vehicles are moving in real time. (See Figure 25.) Knowing where your employees are at all times is always a chal- lenge. But what if you had a 3D digital model of your enterprise The system, which received the CSC Chairman’s Award for building or campus and could track employees using avatars? Excellence in 2008, is helping BHPB eliminate underground traffic accidents, as well as determine more efficient routes and reduce bottlenecks. Above ground, vehicle safety is being addressed through a different transpar- ency angle: track truckers using GPS and sensors on the truck to ensure that truck- ers don’t drive longer than they should, which can result in fatigue and accidents. Truckers typically record their mileage manually and can “cook the books” to hide the fact that they have driven more hours than mandated by federal law. Digital surveillance eliminates this, making Figure 25 In this underground silver, lead and zinc mine in Cannington, Australia, the small truck on the right needs to get out of the way of a large front-end loader approaching. driver activity completely transparent.71 The truck needs to reverse until the front-end loader can safely pass. The inset shows a collision between a light vehicle and a haul truck. The difficult traffic conditions in the mine Visibility also improves efficiency. Imag- are being addressed with an RFID system that works underground and lets drivers know ine a 3D visualization of a hospital, when vehicles are approaching. Since the installation of the system, designed by CSC, there have been no accidents recorded in the defined underground zones. Source: BHP Billiton where you can fly through the facility 40
  • 43. L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS and see all its assets. you can know when an ambulance is RISING EXPECTATIoNS ABoUT TRANSPARENCy expected in the emergency room and the condition of the patient. you can have better information about organs being Indeed, once people have tasted transparency, they want more. transplanted. Information can no longer be hidden. People are increasingly demanding that data be available to them, particularly public CSC has introduced omniLocation to provide such enterprise data. visibility to clients. omniLocation is CSC-developed middle- ware that integrates location and sensor technology with Web In the United States, there is a strong cry for federal agencies Services to create a real world visualization of enterprise to make their data more transparent. A Princeton University study operations. It integrates location with relevant attributes about observes that federal agencies are falling behind in presenting people, vehicles, assets and infrastructure, creating a four- data to the public.73 The study suggests that if agencies pro- dimensional visualization of the client’s enterprise on a Web vided easier Web access to raw data, private companies and platform. This augmented reality combines data about physical organizations could present the data in new ways. business operations onto a real world visualization that is physically correct, accurately mapped, and continuously updated. omniLocation delivers an unprecedented level of insight into operations to improve safety, security and efficiency. It once people have tasted provides an interactive interface to the user and an operations transparency, they want more. communication tool to the client. Visualization Tools Are Key Visualization tools are key to enterprise visibility systems. Tools For example, if the Environmental Protection Agency could make such as Google Maps, Google Earth, Google SketchUp and more raw data more accessible to the public, then interested par- Google Sketchy Physics provide highly accurate, free maps. ties, including consumers, could analyze and interpret the data in creative ways useful to them. Many interested parties already do Further, the maps are getting more realistic. “Google Earth this; for instance, USA Today taps Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) visualizes the real world, not a virtual replica,” notes Dan Munyan, data to publish a national map of mercury emission sources.74 chief technologist for CSC’s Global Security Solutions Identity But if more data were more readily accessible, more analyses Labs. “We are almost at near real-time updates with satellite leading to improved understanding would be possible. imagery. In the past, updates were on the order of every 28 days; now they are just a few seconds.” The demand for better data transparency, along with problems such as natural disasters that require collaboration, heightened To showcase its enterprise visibility tracking technology, public awareness about protecting the environment, and CSC provided real-time tracking for the 2008 Amgen Tour of the explosion of the Web, are driving EPA to seek new ways California professional cycling race. Riders wore small RFID to serve its data to the public. To this end, EPA launched a devices and were represented as moving avatars on a National Dialogue on Access to Environmental Information,75 digital map, rendered via Google Maps or Google Earth. The which sought input from citizens and organizations alike on Location object Field Tracking (LoFT) solution let users what information they look for, how they use it, search terms predict what would happen next since they had access to and delivery formats. historical data as well as elevation and route data. The LoFT mash-up could be displayed on a handheld as well as a laptop “The American people have a real thirst for environmental or desktop.72 information,” says Molly o’Neill, EPA chief information officer and assistant administrator for the office of Environmental As enterprise visibility takes hold, it is moving from exotic and Information. “That’s a major reason we launched the National harsh environments to the mundane, such as monitoring Dialogue. People expect to find information not in days or hours passport queues at airports to ensure that enough border or minutes, but rather in seconds.” Input from the National control agents are on hand. When technology is applied to Dialogue, which ran from January through June 2008, will shape ordinary jobs, it’s a sure sign it’s going mainstream. EPA’s strategy for access to environmental information. 41
  • 44. DIGITAL DISrupTIonS LEA DI nG EDGE Foru M Similarly, in healthcare people have been demanding better DrIvInG TrAnSpArEncy: MASh-upS AnD MorE access to information so they can analyze it and make decisions. Making the healthcare system more transparent is an enormous As information becomes more transparent, the software tools challenge, but work is well underway. themselves are becoming more transparent, from mash-ups to (further out) attentional software and intentional software. TransparenT HealTHcare: THe DocTor and Your InformaTIon are In As anyone who has been to the doctor’s in U.S. hospitals as a result of medical the person changes jobs, insurance office in the United States knows, U.S. errors.76 U.S. healthcare as a percentage companies, doctors, hospitals or state healthcare is ripe for an IT transformation. of GNP continues to grow and exceeds of residence. Every time you fill out an intake form that of any other industrialized country. describing who you are, what medications (It was 16 percent in 2006 and estimated In 2004 President Bush issued an execu- you are on, and who your insurance to be 16.6 percent in 2008 and 19.5 percent tive order that the majority of Americans carrier is, you are reminded of how in 2017.77) Better information that makes have electronic health records by 2014. paper-based the healthcare system still patient and disease data more transparent Two initiatives helping realize the goal by is. But healthcare is poised to become and reduces administrative costs and time setting data standards are the Health more transparent as longitudinal elec- will help reverse these statistics. Information Technology Standards Panel, tronic health records, intelligence systems at the government level, and SNOMED, a and improved connectivity help deliver Key technology enablers include: privately-led taxonomy of some 300,000 better information for better decisions. medical terms. One state-of-the-art Longitudinal Electronic Health Records — prototype based on SNOMED terms is a “Transparent healthcare is about improving An individual’s personal health information visualization tool developed by IBM that the quality of care with better information must be standardized and integrated maps a person’s electronic health record for better decisions, saving lives and into an electronic health record that lasts data to a 3D image of the human body. money,” says Dr. Robert Wah, CSC’s chief a lifetime. This record would include The Analytic and Symbolic Mapper medical officer. information from doctor visits, hospital Engine, described as Google Earth for the stays, pharmacies, lab tests and the body,78 brings dry medical data to life It is estimated that there are anywhere supporting medical and pharmacy claims. and makes it easy to understand. from 44,000 to 98,000 deaths per year The record must remain active whether Continued on the following page > 42
  • 45. L E A D In G E D G E Fo ru M DIGITAL DISrupTIonS TransparenT HealTHcare: THe DocTor and Your InformaTIon are In (continued) At the same time, public record manage- database of patient information and tying together islands of information. ment services are emerging, including medical research and flags potential Although the NHIN will not be in place Google Health (in beta), Microsoft’s conflicts in an individual’s medication or for years, four architecture prototpyes HealthVault, Revolution Health (backed treatment. These examples underscore 79 have been developed, including one by by AOL co-founder Steve Case) and the desperate need to correlate health CSC. This is a major issue for Americans. ActiveHealth Management’s ActivePHR. information and make it available in a In a 2008 survey commissioned by CSC, These services are an effort to give timely, comprehensive manner. 70 percent of 1,000 Americans polled people tools to manage their own health indicated they would be more likely to information, similar to how they manage Connectivity — The Nationwide Health vote for a presidential candidate who their bank information online. Information Network (NHIN) is key to Continued on the following page > Intelligence Systems — Once you have the data, intelligence algorithms (rules) All Patients with same diagnosis are needed to apply against the data to yield insights. Am I getting better 1 or worse? Are two drugs interfering Remove Non-responders with each other? Resolution Health has and Toxic Responders created a rules engine that answers such questions. The engine generates 2 communications for doctors and patients, Treat as a result of its analysis, to warn the Responders and Patients Not Predisposed to Toxicity doctor that two drugs could interfere, for example, or to reinforce to the patient the importance of taking a medi- cation by explaining the adverse conse- quences of not doing so. ActiveHealth Stratifying patients by genotype lets researchers predict who will respond favorably (or not) to a drug, paving the way for personalized medicine based on an individual’s specific, unique Management has compiled a large characteristics. Source: CSC 43
  • 46. DIGITAL DISrupTIonS LEA DI nG EDGE Foru M TransparenT HealTHcare: THe DocTor and Your InformaTIon are In (continued) supports the creation of a nationwide doctors can analyze detailed individual at- to reveal the complex underlying causes health information network. 80 tributes to create a custom plan. Similarly, and outcomes of diseases can effective, researchers will know the one molecule to personalized treatments be realized. The ultimate goal of a transparent health- target with a new drug, maximizing effec- care system is personalized medicine. tiveness and thus minimizing side effects, In the end, it’s about making the entire Based on genetic information, family back- or which patients will respond negatively healthcare system smarter: patients, doctors, ground and your DNA, care is customized to a new drug before it is administered. nurses, hospitals, suppliers, insurance com- for the individual. Your insulin dosage can panies, government payors, pharmaceutical be fine-tuned so there is no need to prick To fully realize the vision of personalized companies and life science researchers. yourself every 20 minutes to check your medicine, longitudinal clinical patient data It’s a complex system, to be sure, but if blood sugar level. Instead of relying on must be integrated with molecular data the financial services and travel industries three general criteria — gender, weight (e.g., genomics, proteomics). Only by can become digitally transparent, so can and height — to develop a treatment plan, seamlessly integrating these data types healthcare. It’s a matter of life and death. Making the inner workings of applications, along with application With mashups, much the same way blogging systems put information, more transparent leads to application innovation, Web publishing into the hands of millions of ordinary non- most notably in the form of mash-ups. now software (applica- technical people, the barrier to developing applications tions) is open enough to be easily combined with other software and turning creativity into innovation is so low that there’s (applications) to yield new applications. As shown in Figure 26, a vacuum into which an entire new class of developers will an entire mash-up ecosystem is emerging, where the modern be sucked. It’s already happening.81 Web functions as an operating system and the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Mashup Feed is reporting an average of three new mash-ups per day and total mash-ups at over 3,300.82 clever mash-ups Mash-ups can be created by novices; they do not require have been created to show correlations between political sophisticated programmers. “Mash-ups disrupt the former contributions and votes cast (maplight.org), property values culture that ‘someone else knows best,’ giving individuals full in your neighborhood (zillow.com) and automobile speed traps freedom to represent information any way that pleases them,” (njection.com/speedtrap), as shown in Figure 27. asserts paul Gustafson, director of cSc’s Leading Edge Forum. “The result is potentially endless innovation.” Then there are mapping mash-ups that incorporate pictures and video, such as viewr, a catalog of global real estate offer- This innovation stems from a broader pool of non-technical ings. As one blogger wrote, why not add pictures and video people who can now create applications: of not just the property but the surrounding area, searchable 44
  • 47. L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS Figure 26 T HE MAS H - U P E CoSyST E M: FLo URIS H ING IN AN INCRE AS ING Ly N URT URI N G E N V I R o N ME N T Web HTML commerce search content site engine site RIA Enterprise feed of the online Edge application aggregator P ublic Tolerance Continuum Mobile media storage discovery Hybrid Database mash-up ris e Browser content ter p aw En int kwa ers r service Mash-up Drivers: ect d ion security SOA Great Content is Hard to Recreate Private Services and Increasing Developer and User Skills Information The Benefit of Building on the Shoulders of Giants Widespread Availability of Good Tools Lightweight Data and Service Models Source: Dion Hinchcliffe’s Web 2.0 Blog, Social Computing Magazine. Licensed under a Easy to Reuse Services Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. Right to Remix Spreading http://web2.socialcomputingmagazine.com/the_web_20_mashup_ecosystem_ramps_up.htm across city maps. Have commentary about the neighborhoods than spending days pulling data from different sources into a using “wiki-fied pop-ups” in the mash-up, and add social presentation and e-mailing it. networking that allows residents and prospective buyers to chat.83 The possi- bilities are endless. one tool for creating mash-ups is Intel Mash Maker, for both novice and power users.84 others include MapBuilder,85 for mashing Google and yahoo maps, and Google Mashup Editor (in testing).86 In the enterprise, mash-ups are being used in a variety of areas, from government to e-commerce to telephony. For example, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency created a mash-up called overwatch to make intelligence gathering and analysis more timely. The overwatch platform, shown in Figure 28, enables end users to create a current, customized view of a particular situation based on multiple intelligence data sources. overwatch is Figure 27 This mash-up lets you find speed traps in your area. Speed traps appear as browser-based and uses drag-and-drop yellow or red dots on the map, depending on severity level. When you hover your cursor over a speed trap, detailed information and advertising appear. you can also add speed techniques and bookmarks. This is far traps to the map using a simple form Source: Njection faster, more dynamic and more secure 45
  • 48. DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M Figure 28 This mash-up, called overwatch, gives U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency staffers the ability to create an informational view of a situation quickly, right from their browser. Source: JackBe Corporation overwatch was created using JackBe Corporation’s Presto enterprise mash-up software. Key benefits of the approach savvy enterprises will leverage are empowering end users to assemble the data they need on the fly, and improving information sharing and real-time a data-operational strategy that access to critical information. “Mash-ups address the IT bottle- puts information at the core of the neck by empowering business users to easily assemble their business, even if the business is own situational applications in response to ever-changing business requirements,” says Luis Derechin, CEo of JackBe. selling hard goods like cars. data other applications of Presto include providing current inven- adds value and drives sales. tory data to field sales people (Tupperware); creating a faster, more flexible shopping cart for e-commerce applications (Nutrisystem); and tracking research citations (Thomson The Internet was founded on transparency and we are feeling the Scientific). effects, amplified by Web 2.0, mash-ups, ubiquitous connectivity, user self-service, and a culture that demands information. Savvy In addition, new on the scene for JackBe are mashlets, portable enterprises will leverage a data-operational strategy that puts infor- micro applications that present a “face” to enterprise mash-ups. mation at the core of the business, even if the business is selling The objective of mashlets is to share their mash-up results easily hard goods like cars. Data adds value and drives sales. As Internet and safely; mashlets can be put into a blog or portal, sent technologies and cultural norms continue to evolve, there is no to co-workers or customers, or viewed in a browser or next- end in sight to transparency and the innovations it can yield. generation mobile phone. 46
  • 49. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 neW Wave of Waves The sky is not the limit as spectrum goes digital. To paraphrase Nobel-prize-winning physicist Richard Feynman, we The game has changed; wireless is are immersed in a sea of waves (mostly invisible) that surrounds us with a tremendous amount of potential information.87 This a new frontier that is completely sea of waves, the electromagnetic spectrum, includes X-rays, up for grabs, with spectrum as visible light waves, heat waves, microwaves, radio waves and valuable a resource today as oil more, as shown in Figure 29. These waves present a cacophony of signals that we, using suitable receivers and transmitters, was in the Industrial Age. can somehow separate out and interpret. Amidst this cacophony, new hardware and software tools are has changed; wireless is a new frontier that is completely up refining our ability to control radio wave signals, whether cellular, for grabs, with spectrum as valuable a resource today as oil broadcast TV, AM/FM radio or Wi-Fi. This is enabling us to re- was in the Industrial Age. allocate spectrum to a host of new digital applications, and to one day do away with spectrum allocation entirely thanks to cognitive radio. Change is in the air. However, it will take time to revise U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) regulations and business models that profit handsomely from the regu- lated spectrum bequeathed to us in 1912, a result of radio communication mishaps that contributed to the sinking of the Titanic.88 Change will be introduced gradually as some spectrum bands are reallocated and others are opened for general purpose rather than proprietary use. Eventually, the current contrivance of spectrum allocation will be shattered altogether. This is a key point. We are no longer held Figure 29 This depiction of electromagnetic spectrum shows several objects with size scales comparable to the wavelengths of the waves of different types of electromagnetic back by old technologies that led to the radiation. Note that the range of wavelengths varies by many orders of magnitude, while creation of spectrum allocation to avoid the waves shown in this “cartoon” do not. For example, visible light waves are typically 100 time shorter than infrared waves, not just slightly shorter as depicted pictorially. interference. New technologies render Source: NASA’s “Living With a Star” program and the Center for Science Education at Space spectrum allocation obsolete. The game Sciences Laboratory, University of California at Berkeley. 47
  • 50. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS The race to stake out the wireless Figure 30 SPECTRUM oPENS UP IN THE 700MHz BAND (C BLoCK) frontier is precipitating a spectrum battle between the established telcos; io radio, cable and satellite broadcasters; ad R e Internet service providers; and start-ups. av w ol e rt tr ac As the battle plays out and the demand ho on c R Sp affi M io S C Tr ES Ph ord oth to io R io for wireless communications increases, e ss te ir / ad FM ad d ad C o le SB lli A el un et R R te t U on ex lu ro wireless will become the norm and wired M B Sa W B C N A G the exception. 5-600MHz 700MHz 800MHz 900MHz 1200MHz 1900MHz 2400MHz 3.1 – 10.6GHz SPECTRUM oPENS UP A B CDE AWS AWS Imagine a day when your mobile phone UWB works on any wireless network, not just your carrier’s network, or emergency Unused “white space” is available FCC auctions off responders can carry one radio that for low-power, the C Block for Verizon unlicensed $20 billion for a communicates with firefighters, police, Sprint Wireless applications. new open access federal emergency responders, the 700 MHz industry. National Guard and others seamlessly AT&T Wi-Fi T-Mobile Mobility and reliably. To say wireless will become the norm is one thing, but getting there — having ubiquity and seamless connectivity — is Source: CSC quite another. The wireless arena, unlike the Internet, is not based on one unifying protocol and universal access but rather a hodge-podge of incompatible protocols (e.g., TDMA, CDMA, The 700 MHz band, originally assigned to analog TV, will be HSDPA, GSM, GPRS, EVDo, UWB, Wi-Fi, WiMAX), proprietary freed up as a result of the U.S. transition to digital TV (which frequency bands (i.e., licensed and unlicensed spectrum), and will be completed in 2009). The 700 MHz band’s five blocks access restrictions. Slowly this is changing as spectrum opens up (A-E), depicted in Figure 30, were auctioned off for a mix and the traditional licensing models fall by the wayside. of commercial and public safety uses, both proprietary and open. The big winners were Verizon Wireless, which spent The 700 MHz auction is a major step towards opening up roughly $9.4 billion for C-, B- and A-block licenses, and AT&T spectrum and introducing innovative business models. The Mobility, which spent $6.6 billion for B-block licenses.90 In FCC has called the 700 MHz band “beachfront property,” a total, the auction earned $20 billion.91 valuable scarce resource providing a foundation for building innovative new products and services.89 During the time leading up to the March 2008 auction, the C block received the most attention because it contained open access elements, added at the urging of Google (which The FCC has called the 700 Mhz did not pick up any licenses), that opened the door to com- band “beachfront property,” a panies other than traditional phone companies to win licenses and create a host of new wireless services. Verizon Wireless valuable scarce resource providing predicts “a new wave of consumer electronics and applica- a foundation for building innovative tions” using Long Term Evolution (LTE) technology in its C block, which must by definition be open to compatible new products and services. applications and devices.92 (LTE is discussed in “The Race Towards Broader Coverage and Speed.”) 48
  • 51. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 An early sign of innovation in the 700 MHz band is 700 MHz with the open Handset Alliance it is leading for third-party Wi-Fi. With Wi-Fi operating in an unlicensed band, companies applications. Even Apple opened its iPhone platform to outside that already have hotspots could become “super hotspots,” developers, enabling capabilities such as Wi-Fi telephony. The delivering an on-ramp to the Internet and providing a host opening up of the platform by Apple is very strategic, for it of new innovations and disruptions in the spirit of the open sets up more potential disruptions for the carriers and device C block. This on-ramp takes consumers to an endless array of manufacturers, who need to strike a balance in deciding “which applications, in contrast to the single applications of the licensed wave to ride” at any one time. bands (e.g., TV, radio, voice). The model shifts from licensed to unlicensed, from proprietary to open. Another area of spectrum ripe for opening up is TV white space, the portion of unused spectrum that separates licensed In addition, 700 MHz Wi-Fi sets up an alternative to PCS or TV bands. In the past, white space served as a buffer to prevent WiMAX for a nationwide wireless network. Because it operates interference, but with today’s transmitters and receivers that at a lower frequency (700 MHz in contrast to 2.4-5 GHz for is no longer needed. Having the additional spectrum available licensed Wi-Fi), 700 MHz Wi-Fi has broader reach, meaning for unlicensed devices would be a major win for innovation. fewer towers are required. Estimates put the price of building The FCC is deciding whether and how to free up this vacant a national Wi-Fi network at $2 billion, in contrast to $4 billion spectrum, considered “a golden technological opportunity” for for a national 1900 MHz PCS network and $5 billion for a WiMAX broadband services for those without broadband and for network.93 (Wi-Fi versus WiMAX is primarily about speed/ consumer applications such as smart homes and mobile TV.94 distance versus cost, with Wi-Fi being slower and shorter range Google has given suggestions to the FCC for how white space but less expensive to deploy.) could be deployed for unlicensed use, particularly mobile Web access.95 Anything that increases Web traffic improves Google’s Though the prospect of a nationwide wireless network, another position as an advertising platform. sign of spectrum opening up, is many years away, vendors are opening up in the meantime. Verizon Wireless has opened its However, open spectrum does have its challenges. Already network to other devices and applications. Google is developing in multi-tenant buildings, there are complaints about the an open platform for mobile phones (Android) in conjunction performance of Wi-Fi due to access point overlap and whIThEr ThE rAdIo? With wireless Internet connectivity and no need to tune into a radio station’s The Chumby, a Wi-Fi gadget that looks providing more flexibility and choice, it frequency. Just navigate to the station like an alarm clock, comes with Internet is easy to see that traditional AM/FM you want via your mobile or laptop. radio too. So it’s not just Internet radio radio will eventually become obsolete. Radio over the Internet, such as through per se but all the devices that can tune Just as wireless Internet connectivity LastFM or Internet radio streaming, gives into Internet radio that will make tradi- breaks the cellular juggernaut, it also you more choices and control, disrupting tional radio obsolete. Thus we have breaks the radio juggernaut, dashing traditional radio the way music and TV conditions setting up the demise of the value once inherent in having a are being disrupted. (See New Media.) radio as we know it: new networks proprietary hold on spectrum. Once you accessible by new devices that put radio can get radio over the Internet, there is With the new iPhone 3G, Internet radio in new places. no need to have allocated radio spectrum streaming hits a growing population. 49
  • 52. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS a passenger on a ship, you would use Wi-Fi at port, 3G around the coast, and satellite at sea. or, say you are a passenger on a high-speed Thalys train in Europe, which uses a different way to provide connectivity. If you are on a Thalys train going from Paris to Brussels, Amsterdam or cologne, you can enjoy broadband Internet connectivity for the entire duration of the journey at an average cruise speed of 300 kilometers per hour (187 miles per hour). cSc helped Thalys choose the provider, negotiate, and manage the implementation of the wireless service. This Figure 31 The PepWave MAX mobile router works with Wi-Fi, 3G, WiMAX and other networks to provide seamless, high-speed allowed Thalys International to become the first European connectivity on cars, buses, trains and boats. Source: PepWave commercial passenger rail service provider to offer passengers Internet connectivity using Wi-Fi, satellite and cellular tech- nologies. Figure 32 shows the high-level design. bandwidth sharing. (However, getting away from microwave ovens will no doubt enhance the performance of these new The solution provides continuous coverage across France, networks!) Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands, where Thalys operates. currently the system has been deployed on three train sets, WIRELESS IN NEW PLAcES with plans for full deployment by 2009. For Thalys, which serves As spectrum opens up and wireless eventually becomes the over six million passengers per year, Internet connectivity is a norm, it is important to see where Wi-Fi and other wireless differentiator that its competitors (other trains and airlines) do technologies are making inroads in terms of new applications not offer yet, though efforts are underway. The Thalys project and new techniques. won the cSc chairman’s Award for Excellence in 2008. Trains and Planes: Connecting in Motion on planes, Internet connectivity while in flight is becoming Trains, planes and automobiles are getting online with Wi-Fi. a reality. Aircell and onAir offer Wi-Fi connectivity in the In the past, connections to the Internet have been difficult if cabin, with service expected to start on some U.S. airlines (e.g., not impossible in moving vehicles. But advances in roaming and American Airlines, Virgin America) in 200896 and movement network access are making it possible to provide continuous coverage. PePWave TrainFi, housed in a ruggedized enclo- sure, is a Wi-Fi modem for vehicles, trains and other public transportation systems. With its advanced algorithms, it is able to provide a stable Wi-Fi connection in a moving vehicle at speeds up to 75 miles per hour, enabling streaming video and data on high-speed transit systems. The PepWave MAX mobile router, shown in Figure 31, allows for seamless failover across Wi-Fi, WiMAX, 3G, satellite and other networks. The MAX mobile router, to be announced in fall 2008, maintains Figure 32 Internet access from a moving, high-speed Thalys International train works as follows: connectivity over vast geographic areas; From the passenger’s laptop, data is transmitted to one of two hotspots in the passenger’s train it is designed for use in cars, buses, car, and on to a central server before transmission through a rooftop antenna, which connects to a satellite 36,000 kilometers above or to 3G ground networks. Source: CSC trains and boats. For example, if you are 50
  • 53. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 ExTENdINg CoVErAgE AT hoME: CoMBININg CELLuLAr ANd wI-FI As more phone calls are made via wireless unlicensed mobile access (UMA) network make and take calls from your cell phone rather than wireline phones, cellular controllers and multi-access convergence or browser and manage voicemail as carriers are competing to grab hold of gateways, will climb to $46.3 billion by text, making it searchable, sharable and the sizeable “home zone” market by 2010.97 Nokia is currently the leading dual- actionable. Ribbit’s Caller ID 2.0 feature employing dual-mode handset services mode handset manufacturer, followed let’s you see a Web page of information and femto-based systems in the home. by HTC and Sony Ericsson.98 about a caller before you take the call, including his latest blog posts, photos, Among the carriers in the game is T-Mobile, For those who want to dispense with videos, and past calls to you (which you which has launched HotSpot @Home, a cellular altogether, there are Wi-Fi only can listen to or read as text). The social service that offers unlimited calling via phones powered by services from Web meets telephony. dual-mode (Wi-Fi and cellular) handsets companies like Vonage. Callers operate using customers’ home WLANs. Dual mode these phones over Wi-Fi networks at As consumers experience disruption with gets us one step closer to the vision of home, in the office or at hotspots. With the mobile phone first hand, it drives open access, shifts traffic off the cellular voice as just another data type on the home the power of spectrum while also network, and leverages infrastructure and Internet, service is much less expensive presenting new platforms and possibilities service already in use by the customer at than cellular (or wireline) and comes that take us well beyond what dial tone home. with features you’d expect (voice mail, delivered in the past. caller ID, call waiting, caller forwarding). Sprint is testing the waters with its Airave The trick is to make Wi-Fi calling as Of note: Our history with bandwidth femtocell, and AT&T is exploring femtocells reliable and accepted as cellular, and in suggests that as networks get faster, as well. Femtocells are an alternative so doing upstage cellular (and wireline). services that are linear in growth (versus way to improve coverage at home. exponential) become priced at a flat Consumers set up a femtocell, essentially a Cell phone disruptions are also coming fee rather than a per-minute fee, as has mini cell tower, in the house. The femtocell from services such as fring and Ribbit. happened with long distance wireline. provides coverage where existing cell Fring is a mobile VoIP service that lets “If this is true, the advent of higher- coverage is poor. Unlike dual-mode users talk, chat and interact with each speed wireless will rapidly erode the services, which require a special handset, other from their mobile phones using need to meter wireless voice minutes,” femtocells work with existing cellular Internet connectivity, not expensive cell says Phil Edholm, enterprise chief handsets. (Cable companies may also phone minutes, without boundaries and strategy officer and vice president of get into the act, using WiMAX femtocells regardless of device or telco service. network architecture at Nortel. “This to provide wireless service to consumers.) Fring also offers file transfer (limited) would substantially reduce the need and supports multiple languages. Ribbit to use multiple networks to lower costs, There is some serious money at stake. (acquired by BT in July 2008) is an open as with dual mode services.” So as dual According to a study by Infonetics Research, platform that bridges the worlds of mode disrupts, it too could one day be the worldwide fixed-mobile convergence cellular and the Web using VoIP, essentially disrupted. market, including dual-mode phones, obliterating the voice stovepipe. You can 51
  • 54. L E A D IN G E D G E| Fo RU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS Figure 33 M o B I L E B R oADB A N D T E C H No Lo Gy PAT H and WiMAX deliver high speeds and more seamless connectivity (i.e., less roaming) through broader reach. The path that operators choose regarding LTE and Cellular Operators WiMAX is shown in Figure 33. 4G CDMA LTE is a counterstrike to WiMAX for large, LTE OFDM/ UMTS/ metro area networks. WiMAX requires GSM HSPA MIMO + new infrastructure but has broad range. Flat IP Feeling threatened, the GSM camp devel- Network oped LTE in response. Although not as Greenfield Licenses, WiMAX New Entrants, Attackers powerful as WiMAX, LTE works on existing GSM infrastructure so is less expensive spectrum & regulatory considerations to roll out. LTE will succeed HSDPA and WiMAX Trials Rollout LTE Demos Trials Early Adopters Rollout can be used with existing GSM networks. 2007 2008 2009 2010 Figure 34 depicts LTE and WiMAX on their respective paths to 4G networks. Evolved Edge: Bridge for GSM operators to leapfrog to LTE WiMAX: Differentiated offering for new entrants LTE: Natural evolution path for 2G/3G operators WiMAX is expected to accommodate Source: Nortel fixed, nomadic, portable and mobile wire- less broadband connectivity without the need for a direct line-of-sight to a base already underway in Europe, Asia and Australia. Aircell uses station, similar to the traditional cellular phone network. IEEE cellular and onAir uses satellite technology to beam signals to standards 802.16-2004, for fixed wireless, and 802.16e-2005, for the plane, which becomes a hotspot inside the cabin. (Satellite mobile wireless, have been ratified and interoperable products technology is required for coverage on trans-oceanic flights.) are now emerging from many vendors. Wireless operator Xanadoo A major issue, at least in the U.S., is whether to allow voice calls or launched one of the first commercial mobile WiMAX networks not. A central feature of the onAir service is that the crew can disable the voice Figure 34 LT E AND WiMAX ARE THE TWo feature at any time. Will social etiquette MA J o R PAT H S To 4 G NE T Wo RKS win out? Probably not in Europe, at least, where airlines (e.g., Air France, Ryanair) Device Movement All IP and Mobile are already testing and offering in-flight cell phone service. (Meanwhile, note that 4G U.S. airlines have removed their in-flight LTE 3.5G phones.) In any event, Wi-Fi in flight (with 3G HSDPA NexGen Wi-Fi 2.5G HSUPA 802.11n or without voice) is a new revenue oppor- 2G CDMA2000 Wi-Fi at 700 Mhz W-CDMA 802.11a/b/g/n GPRS WiMAX tunity for the airlines, who are hurting over ular 1xEV-DO Rev. A Cell CDMA EDGE 802.16-2004 GSM sky-high fuel prices. other players include TDMA Mobile WiMAX Wi-Fi 802.16e/802.16-2005 802.11a/g Row 44, whose Wi-Fi service has been Wi-Fi tested by Alaska Airlines,99 and AeroMobile, 802.11b offering service on Dubai-based Emirates and Qantas Airways (trial).100 s The Race Towards Broader les ire W Coverage and Speed >14.4 Kbps 64-144 Kkbps 384 Kbps- 10-20 Mbps 25-30 Mbps 70 Mbps 100 Mbps Data Rates In contrast to the more limited bandwidth 3 Mbps and range of Wi-Fi, technologies like LTE Source: CSC 52
  • 55. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 (802.16e) in North America in April 2008. Juniper Research combined with wireless USB provides even more flexibility forecasts that mobile WiMAX will take off from 2010-2013, and reliability. As short-range wireless connections take off, topping 80 million subscribers worldwide by then. 101 we can get rid of most of those unsightly wires in our offices and homes. WiMAX could start making its move when Intel, along with partners Sprint Nextel and Clearwire, begins field tests of A really interesting potential of UWB is the ability to have WiMAX networks and technology in 2008. 102 Intel plans to peripherals become public and shared in a private-use sense. include both WiMAX and Wi-Fi in its next chipset for laptops With UWB, the hotel display can become the large display for a (Centrino 2), which was introduced in July 2008; the company PDA, or every seat at a conference table can have a display that released a dedicated WiMAX chipset (Intel WiMAX Connection becomes the display for the seated individual. This opens the door 2250) in 2006. Intel hopes WiMAX becomes just as popular as to carrying intelligence and using displays where needed, versus Wi-Fi and a viable alternative to 4G mobile phone networks.103 today’s model of carrying different devices and intelligence for different displays (e.g., PCs, PDAs). (See Platform Makeover.) While some are moving to LTE, others say it is more cost effective to upgrade Wi-Fi to approximate WiMAX function- ality that is “good enough.” This approach would not require deploying new infrastructure, as with WiMAX; however, Wi-Fi, A really interesting potential of with a range of approximately 300 feet, was never intended ultrawideband is the ability to have to handle seamless hand-offs between cells, which is a unique feature of WiMAX. peripherals become public and shared in a private-use sense. Despite these challenges and some false starts, WiMAX plans are underway. In May 2008, a partnership was announced among Sprint, Clearwire, Comcast, Time Warner, Google and Intel to create a new WiMAX company bearing the Clearwire We may also be able to see through walls. A unique hand-held name. The partnership is unique in that it gives cable operators, radar system designed by Camero uses UWB to detect hidden an Internet company and a chip maker a stake in shaping objects on the other side of a wall and display them as images the future of mobile wireless Internet access.104 As the new on screen. Designed for military and search and rescue oper- Clearwire competes with Verizon Wireless and AT&T, which ations, the system has been sold to armies and police forces are just beginning their plans for next-generation wireless around the world, and is hoped to become a general-issue tool networks, the battle for wireless broadband is on. for all military units one day, just the way night vision technology has.107 (If this technology reaches the enterprise, imagine being Indeed, another WiMAX competitor is NextWave, whose MXtv able to see if someone is in the office if the door is closed, and is a mobile multicast and broadcast technology for WiMAX whether they are alone or with someone else. Surely there is operators. Essentially, MXtv is a way for WiMAX operators a business in creating jamming equipment for this!) to provide TV and other video services. Alactel-Lucent has signed on.105 SPECTRUM SHATTERS CoMPLETELy Ultrawideband: Connecting Close In Eventually, we will see a complete breakdown of spectrum as Ultrawideband offers the promise of being ultra-connected at software defined radio, and its child, cognitive radio, take hold close range. UWB is a very low-power technology that sends and spectrum allocation is shattered. Use the entire spectrum signals in quick bursts across a wide spectrum of frequencies. and let software find the signals you need. The result: a dynamic It is useful indoors, such as for connecting home networks, and completely digital spectrum. entertainment centers, consumer electronics and PC peripherals. The first UWB-enabled notebook PCs shipped in late 2007. The vision of a dynamic digital spectrum is possible because PC peripherals will show up in 2008, followed by consumer we are no longer bound by old technology. Dividing up and electronics and applications in volume in 2010, and over allocating spectrum, and developing separate infrastructures 400 million UWB-enabled devices shipped in 2011.106 UWB to utilize specific assigned frequencies, was originally done 53
  • 56. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS arriving at the antenna slightly out of phase with the original use the entire spectrum and let signal was overcome by increasing the power of the broadcasting software find the signals you need. node so that the stronger, unaltered original signal could be distinguished from its wayward siblings. SDRs can identify out-of-phase rogue waves and shift them into phase, thereby to avoid signal interference. Today this approach is largely an increasing the signal strength of the direct transmission while anachronism given the hardware and software advances of the reducing the power required of the transmitter. Interference is last 50 years, which have yielded extremely powerful, miniature no longer a liability but actually a redundant signal asset called processors capable of running sophisticated wave transforma- “multi-path gain.” tion algorithms in real time — i.e., extracting the signals, and only those signals, you need. Physics does not dictate that we divide up the spectrum to avoid interference; waves do not generally interfere with each other. Rather, up until recently, our radio technology was incapable of separating out the waves of GoVERNMENT ’ S Ro LE interest — i.e., the signal from the noise — so we legislated (Or Challenges Facing Software Defined Radio) frequency separation. But this is no longer necessary. Software defined radio (SDR) enables moving to different frequencies and modulations via software, and cognitive radio allows negotiating Despite the promise of software defined radio and cognitive spectrum on the fly as needed. radio, the government plays a pivotal role in their success: Today, we must be willing to embrace the new technology • Broadcast license holders have little incentive to support of SDR, reverse spectrum regulation, and resolve turf wars the opening of the electromagnetic spectrum for general that impede progress in the vast radio space. SDR is a major use. The government will need to get involved to undo its game-changer, on par with the telephone, automobile and allocation “solution” of the past. personal computer.108 • The government’s prohibition of the use of open source code109 in the development of SDR will undoubtedly slow the advancement of this groundbreaking technology. software defined radio is a major game-changer, on par • Regulators don’t understand SDR technology well enough to regulate it well. with the telephone, automobile and personal computer. Perhaps the ultimate in SDR is when devices can negotiate spectrum intelligently as needed. A cognitive radio would detect Inside Software Defined Radio user needs based on context and provide the appropriate With SDR, transmitters comprising small, powerful computer wireless service, at the lowest level of power consumption, chips can use a slew of software algorithms to carve informa- automatically adjusting transmission and reception parameters. tion into a wave that can be picked out by a similarly-equipped Cognitive radio can detect unused spectrum and share it receiver, despite many other wave broadcasts in the same without harmful interference to others, as well as capture the frequency. The receiver sports multiple antennae to catch all best spectrum to meet quality-of-service requirements. wave types and corresponding algorithms to analyze them, and selects and transforms the waves of interest. Some say the technologies needed for cognitive radio already exist. They include a handset being able to locate itself with Additionally, interference becomes a plus. In the past, multi-path GPS, sense and analyze nearby spectrum, know the date and interference from the reflection and refraction of transmitted time, detect patterns and biometric information from users, and waves bouncing off the atmosphere, mountains or buildings and contain and manage a database of nations and regulations. The 54
  • 57. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 biggest challenge will be “designing clever algorithms that Now people in different frequency bands can communicate will take all that information and make decisions about where using a single portable radio, not multiple radios for different in the spectrum to operate at any given moment.” 110 Many bands. The importance of seamless mobile communications experts believe that a typical cell phone in 10 or 20 years will was driven home by the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 have cognitive features. 111 and natural disasters like Hurricane Katrina.116 JTRS: Using Software Defined Radio to Crack the Spectrum Spacecraft Communications: An Industry in Transition SDR is already being put into play by the military. The Joint SDR is being used in space as well. Spacecraft designers have Tactical Radio System (JTRS) is a multi-billion dollar program long had to pay special attention to radio communications. The of the U.S. Department of Defense that is developing an SDR space environment imposes many difficult constraints. Some of for war fighter communications. The SDR will support swappable them, such as low power, low bandwidth, noise, mobility, and hardware components and software upgrades for a family of multiple base stations, are shared by earthbound applications, 180,000 interoperable devices, which will eventually replace while others, such as potentially long propagation delays, are the 750,000 tactical radios carried by soldiers or mounted on unique to space. over the years, many specialized waveforms vehicles, aircraft and ships. 112 The goal is to provide real-time and protocols have been developed for space. Although some voice, data, image and video communications to commanders have been standardized by the Consultative Committee for and soldiers to improve situational awareness, enabling troops Space Data Systems (CCSDS), the large number of incompat- on the move to make decisions quickly. ible options in the standards has resulted in virtually all space missions being unique and unable to interoperate. This ends JTRS uses a new IP-based wideband networking waveform up requiring one-off designs for flight systems, and dedicated (WNW). The waveform enables ad hoc mobile connectivity ground systems for each mission. Meanwhile, successful across the battle space and different service branches, and commercial solutions to many of these constraints have is compatible with existing waveforms used by the DoD. This become widely deployed. mobile connected battlefield is in contrast to having stove- piped radios and an Internet based at fixed sites.113 Currently, NASA is moving towards using the Internet Protocol (IP) to improve interoperability among its spacecraft. This More than 100 JTRS Ground Mobile Radios (GMR) are being “Internet-in-Space” transition has been extremely disruptive tested across the United States. The GMR system has four to the “old guard” of the world’s civil space agencies, but must channels that can be configured with multiple simultaneous ultimately succeed. CSC’s operating Missions as Nodes on waveforms. As the JTRS GMR program director at Boeing, the Internet (oMNI) project has been the world leader in this which is building the initial units, put it, “Multiple legacy area for nine years, and demonstrated on-orbit117 IP spacecraft radios would be needed to deliver the same throughput communications in early 2000. capability of just one WNW channel on the GMR system, significantly increasing capacity to deliver critical information But IP is only part of the interoperability equation. The protocol to the warfighter.” 114 must still be carried over a host of different frequencies and waveforms. SDRs are making inroads on spacecraft. SDRs JTRS is considered a pivotal program because current radio are starting to be used to implement the radio modem tech- systems lack interoperability across the military’s wide variety nologies used to send and receive spacecraft telemetry and of environments, from backpacks to ships, and have insufficient commands. Motorola’s fourth generation spacecraft trans- bandwidth to meet present and future communication needs. ceiver is an SDR. This allows for not only flexible flight radio With JTRS, a single radio can support different standards, designs, but also the possibility of on-orbit modification of frequencies, bandwidths and waveforms via software controls the waveforms used, in response to evolving standards and that are adapted to the mission and intended platform. 115 interoperability requirements. In addition, SDRs at groundstations could be reprogrammed between contacts (communica- JTRS uses SDR to crack the confines of the spectrum not only tions with the spacecraft) for different waveforms, allowing for warfighters but also for public safety personnel. In March one groundstation to be easily shared between multiple 2008 Thales Communications introduced the first SDR based missions. A CSC technology grant titled “Software Defined on JTRS for U.S. government agencies and first responders. Radio” describes the construction of a prototype SDR-based 55
  • 58. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS groundstation for the U.S. Naval Academy’s MidStar-1 Space- options with travel times based on the speeds and locations craft that can be easily modified for use by NASA’s CHIPSat of other Dash drivers at the moment, coupled with historic spacecraft. 118 road data for every time and day of the year. A person’s driving data is transmitted over the Dash network to nearby Dash SDRs on spacecraft are a kind of Trojan Horse that have the drivers, providing traffic updates based on real-time traffic potential to completely disrupt the status quo of civil space flow. The more drivers participating in the Dash network, the agencies. Ultimately, digital improvements in spectrum utiliza- more accurate the traffic reports are. Dash uses GPS, GPRS tion, and the SDR’s reprogrammability, will mean that space- and Wi-Fi (for connecting to the Internet). craft can be modified after the fact to use widely deployed commercial waveforms and protocols, instead of “special for Another example of a viral network is the one Laptop Per Child space” ones, to meet their requirements easily and cheaply computer, the Xo. The Xo creates a self-organizing mesh network while enjoying almost universal interoperability. with other Xos, and the network strengthens as Xos are added. (See Figure 35.) The network deliberately extends connectivity to places that were previously unconnected, such as schools and homes in Africa. sdrs on spacecraft are a kind of Elsewhere in the world, the notion of a grand Wi-Fi mesh network Trojan horse that have the potential linking Wi-Fi hotspots around the world is talking hold. FoN, to completely disrupt the status quo the Madrid-based company creating this network, signed a deal with British Telecom in october 2007 to create BT FoN, a joint of civil space agencies. venture, to create the world’s largest Wi-Fi community. Users sign up by offering their own home or office Wi-Fi hotspot as part of the community, and in return get free (or nearly free) access to all participating hotspots worldwide. Google is a FoN Game Changer: Viral Radio investor, lending credence to the initiative. As noted in a Wi-Fi Having finer control of waves using SDR has led to a rethinking Planet article, “While Earthlink and other vendors struggle to of not only spectrum but radio infrastructure. Whereas tradi- tional radio is point-to-point or point-to-multipoint, the advanced Figure 35 ME S H WIT H FRIE NDS capabilities of SDR (transmitters and receivers), along with their reduced size and cost, have led to a completely new communications architecture dubbed “viral radio.” Viral radio architecture mirrors the architecture of the Internet, based on transmission protocols that allow nodes to self- organize in an ad hoc fashion into infinitely scalable networks with no central backbone. The network becomes faster and more reliable as more nodes join. Nodes can be strung together to extend the network to places where traditional wireless networks have been ineffective and wired networks have been prohibitive, such as stairwells and elevators. A viral network should be future-proof, meaning its devices should work indefinitely no matter what other communica- tions enter the environment and no matter how the underlying technology evolves.119 one Laptop Per Child’s Xo computer interface shows “my neighborhood” and the mesh network — ad hoc networks An example of a viral network is Dash Express, an in-car that link to the Internet — at work. navigation system from Dash Networks. Dash reports traffic Source: One Laptop Per Child. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 2.5, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ conditions and — here’s what’s new — up to three routing 56
  • 59. L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 find the magic beans that will sprout into profitable, affordable, being done via mobile phone (banking, buying, marketing, or even just practical municipal Wi-Fi, BT FoN is trying a dis- airport check-in124), enjoy TV and other entertainment via tinctively UK version that actually makes some sense — at least mobile phone, and read books and listen to recorded lectures in cultures inclined to share.”120 The idea is to provide more and radio stations via mobile devices. Workers in the field will connectivity to more people through a federation of hotspots. increasingly have the information they need at a job site or Three-year-old FoN is still pursuing this vision, though it is customer’s office, rather than having to go back to the office not at the scale it would like to be (there were 340,000 FoN computer. Wireless networks can be set up “on the fly,” for hotspots worldwide as of May 2008).121 Still, FoN presents example using CSC’s Emergency Digital Communications an interesting, bottom-up viral alternative to cellular and WiMAX. There are many other possibilities for viral networks. Andrew “Because they [applications] Lippman and David P. Reed, pioneers in viral communications, can grow virally, they need describe applications and emphasize the innovative, disruptive nature of viral communications: not be provided by traditional communications companies.” Applications range from wearable health monitors that find the nearest doctor, to smart parking meters that — Andrew Lippman and David P. Reed can download a movie to your car while billing you for parking. They can extend radio service into elevators, basements and stairwells, and can be both secure and Solutions (a trailer-mounted tower towed by a vehicle)125 multi-party. These emergent communicators need not or a book-size cell phone base station such as the GSM require traditional “accounts” nor exist as centrally nanoCELL by RIVA Networks.126 Such networks bring connec- created services — they can be unlicensed, personalized, tivity to disaster areas, international waters and other places digital, renegade and “below the noise floor.” Because where public infrastructure does not exist. you can even they can grow virally, they need not be provided by become a reseller of a carrier’s network. Sonopia, for traditional communications companies. example, enables organizations to be their own mobile carrier, focusing on marketing and customer acquisition . . . . Instead of reserving wireless for special applications while the underlying carrier focuses on infrastructure. Groups that require mobility, we view it as the norm. We antici- like the National Wildlife Federation can sell their own pate a time when wires are the special case, needed branded phone service and help strengthen grass roots primarily for power distribution.122 support in the process. Enterprises could become mobile carriers to establish a preferred mobile network for their employees’ use. NEW WAVES = NEW oPPoRTUNITIES our irrepressible demand for wireless broadband is driving us All these changes point to integrating the opportunities of new towards a wireless-only world. Eventually, competing approaches waves into the business. Instead of being merely a conduit will converge as SDR enables islands of connectivity to come for voice and text, communications are being more tightly together. The battle of Wi-Fi versus WiMAX versus cellular (be it integrated into the business. Nortel helped a hospital integrate GSM or CDMA) will be irrelevant when software takes over to communications into the patient discharge process, enabling unite the spectrum. In the meantime, we see many steps today doctors to sign off on paperwork electronically rather than towards convergence, from dual-mode phones to quad-band in person, and automatically notifying staff when rooms and phones to data-rich mobile services (à la the iPhone and Google beds are freed up. The result is a more streamlined, efficient Phone) to soon-to-come 4G networks that emphasize video, process that can accommodate more patients more quickly. mobility and integration of terminals, networks and applications. or consider mobile entertainment. In-flight Internet access All this reflects a mounting shift to mobile markets (see the means airlines can reduce the cost of in-flight entertainment LEF report “Connected World”).123 We will see more business dramatically while improving customer service, for passengers 57
  • 60. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS out on this question until the technology gives us real choices Instead of being merely a conduit to consider. for voice and text, communications one thing seems certain: SDR will provide a more efficient are being more tightly integrated infrastructure as upgrades are made via software, not hard- into the business. ware, and can be done over the air (if so programmed). This will be faster, easier and cheaper than having to climb a tower and install a new part. will be able to select their own entertainment — movies, books, As spectrum goes digital and the vision of viral communica- podcasts, articles — from the riches of the Internet. This move tions takes hold, spectrum shifts from what cyberlaw expert to individual entertainment started some time ago with movies Lawrence Lessig calls a rivalrous to a non-rivalrous good.127 (DVDs) on laptops and ubiquitous personal game players, and Spectrum is no longer a scarce resource, with one person’s affects other industries like hospitality as well. Hotels no longer use rivaling another person’s use, but a resource that is not can count on pay-per-view movies as a rich revenue source since people bring their own movies and videos on their laptops and cell phones. This mirrors the demise of hotels’ phone service as a major revenue source, blown away by the onslaught of spectrum is no longer a scarce the cell phone. Going forward, hotels, airlines and others will resource, with one person’s use have countless new wave opportunities to leverage. rivaling another person’s use, but a To this end, in a wireless world context will be key. Where resource that is not depleted with you are and what you are doing will be relevant to how you connect and what information you access. Random searching use (and, in fact, expands). and manual network selection will be replaced by context- aware searching and your phone knowing which device to call your colleague on. depleted with use (and, in fact, expands). This sets the stage for new products, services and business models, upending Eventually, though, we won’t need multiple devices (cell phone, traditional ways of doing business. Companies and consumers Wi-Fi receiver, AM/FM radio) thanks to SDR. The question is, alike need to prepare for this new wave of electromagnetic will we want the Swiss Army knife of communication devices waves. or will we prefer having a few specialized devices? The jury is 58
  • 61. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 platforM Makeover This is not your father’s computing platform. In the never-ending quest to make computing faster and cheaper, the computing platform is undergoing an extreme makeover. Today’s computing paradigm is being turned on its head as the platform as Today’s computing paradigm is being turned on its head as the platform as we know it transforms into a virtual instantiation we know it transforms into a virtual of itself or disappears into the network cloud. Environmental instantiation of itself or disappears pressures are driving the platform to be greener, which furthers the move to virtualization and cloud computing. At the same into the network cloud. time, multicore chips are increasing speed and efficiency, pushing Moore’s Law with silicon to the limit. As software and services migrate from local hardware to the Although these changes are radical on their own, another source Internet, the data center footprint shrinks, hardware inventory of radical platform change is coming in new materials that will changes, and IT can shift focus from maintenance (now handled eventually replace today’s silicon and microelectronics materials. in the cloud) to the immediate needs of the business. other Nanotechnology, molecular computing, quantum computing and benefits include anytime, anywhere accessibility for users and optical computing use new materials that, if successful, will applications, improved collaboration across distributed business dramatically alter the platform landscape, bringing awesome groups, the ability to scale applications quickly as needed, levels of speed and miniaturization and making a host of new and increased flexibility to change applications and services applications possible. or experiment with new ones. Let’s look at changes to today’s platform and then examine the As another step in the evolution of “netcentric” computing, new materials in the pipeline. cloud computing will take 5-10 years to play out. It has a strong start from virtualization capabilities, software-as-a-service appli- cations like Salesforce.com and Google docs, grid computing, ToDAy’S TACTICS Web 2.0 technologies, infrastructure services like Amazon Web Cloud Computing Services and Google’s App Engine application hosting service, Cloud computing is a completely new paradigm for computing software platforms like Microsoft’s Live Mesh, specialized “cloud” that centralizes data center resources on the Internet (the hardware such as IBM’s iDataPlex systems, and super-fast network cloud). Inside the cloud are all data, storage, application switches. and processing activities, which must be orchestrated and monitored (no mean feat). outside the cloud, users need only Amazon Web Services offer Web-scale computing services an input and output device. Ultimately, the Internet becomes that free software developers and businesses from the heavy the “world data center.” Cloud computing is a radical change from today because every ultimately, the Internet becomes enterprise has its own data center, desktops, laptops and handhelds, with the desktop or laptop typically the focal point. the “world data center.” 59
  • 62. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS grEEN IT: MoVINg BEyoNd ThE 2% soLuTIoN DAVID MOSCHELLA AND DOUGLAS NEAL, CSC Green IT is not just about building more Business/IT Strategy efficient data centers and using low- Green IT operations power personal computers. In fact, IT Market Life Cycle itself consumes only about two percent Perspective of total energy (in the United States). The real green IT opportunities will be found in using information technology to address the other 98 percent in the wider economy — in areas such as product development, operations, logistics, brand support, supply chain, globalization and regulatory compliance. In many of these areas, IT can play a leading role that will attract board-level attention and support. However, IT also needs to get its own Source: CSC with Dan Esty, author, Green to Gold house in order — demonstrate sufficient green computing hygiene — before it can creditably seek a wider role in its IT and all the employees of the enterprise core business strategy, its impact on the firm’s environmental strategy. Examples need to take a holistic approach towards entire supply and demand chain ecosystem, of both green efforts are shown below. green that encompasses the company’s and the information systems required for support and verification. This approach needs to be backed up with hard numbers 2% green hygiene 98% green Business on goals and progress, so that we can • Reduced energy usage • Less office and store space protect the brand and preempt any • Aligned financial incentives • More efficient buildings accusations of “green washing.” To do this, • Reengineered data centers • Green manufacturing IT needs to build relationships with other • Fresh air and warmer cooling • Smart products and sensors parts of the business, such as facilities, • Virtualization, utility computing, fewer servers • Reduced commuting and flying who frequently have data and sensors • More laptops and flat panels • Improved supply chain and logistics that can be an important part of a • PC power management and thin clients • Reduced printing/paper/mail corporate energy dashboard. • Green buying, power supplies • Ease of disposal and recycling • Longer life cycles and recycling • Environmental dashboards IT has to look at the full life cycle energy • Best practices and metrics • Measurements and compliance costs of its devices, not just the energy to use them. For example, IT-intensive Continued the on following page > 60
  • 63. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 lifting typically associated with launching and growing a suc- cessful Web business. Amazon Web Services give software developers the keys to Amazon’s back-end infrastructure, which they can use to build and grow any business. This makes it possible for any business to reach the scale of major Internet players such as Amazon.com but without the expensive price grEEN IT: MoVINg BEyoNd ThE tag needed to build and maintain such a reliable, secure and 2% soLuTIoN (continued) scalable infrastructure. Amazon Web Services enable organizations to address un- predictable scaling needs, such as the “success disaster” that happens when an application suddenly becomes immensely devices such as mobile phones may popular, or there is a one-time project with a tight deadline. require twice as much energy to build Services can be scaled up or down in minutes and are billed as to use. This highlights the importance on a pro-rated basis. For example, in 2007 a developer at of end-to-end supply chain energy moni- The New york Times used Amazon Web Services (Simple toring, from component construction Storage Service or S3, and Elastic Compute Cloud or EC2) to through end-of-life disposal. create 11 million PDFs of past articles. This was done in just under 24 hours, using 100 EC2 instances, and generating 1.5 terabytes To help enterprises get started, we of data, which was stored on S3.128 (Some four terabytes of recommend a four-step approach: source data were uploaded to S3 to start the project.) • Reduce power consumption across “A single developer commands 100 servers remotely and the enterprise. charges it to his expense account! No formal budgeting was • Improve reuse and recycling beyond needed,” remarked Jeff Barr, Amazon’s senior Web Services just PCs. evangelist. The project was high profile and had a short deadline, • Green the business on as many fronts for the Times was eliminating TimesSelect, a subscription-based as possible. online service, and making most of its articles, going back • Measure and comply — only IT can to 1851, available free of charge.129 Since then, the Times has do this. completed another digital archive project, TimesMachine, using Amazon Web Services.130 Like the space program, “going green” could ignite widespread innovation in Network giant Cisco is pushing a netcentric view of the many fields such as energy, transporta- platform through new high-speed switches. Cisco’s Nexus 7000 tion and communications. IT has a great Series Switches, designed for the data center, can download opportunity to demonstrate leadership 90,000 movies in 38 seconds or copy the entire searchable across the firm. This will be a long-term Web in 7.5 minutes. In its January 2008 announcement, Cisco effort, involving everyone. Most companies explained, “As the data center transitions to a more services- are in very early stages. The time to get centric model, the network plays a pivotal role in orchestrating greener is now. virtual IT resources and scaling workloads.”131 Further, as the cloud’s capabilities expand, a new layer of software, called a “fabric,” is appearing to orchestrate all the various technology David Moschella is Global Research Director in the cloud (network, servers, storage and applications).132 and Douglas Neal is a Research Fellow, both for the LEF Executive Programme. The two on the user’s end, how people interact with the computer will are leading an in-depth study of green IT. change, whether it means carrying an “ultra-thin” device that accesses everything off the network (e.g., the CherryPal PC 61
  • 64. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS is entirely cloud-based133) or simply wearing a microphone to University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, to work on the ask the network to retrieve data (e.g., “find me all the sales problem.139 figures from last week”), which would then be projected onto an ordinary object, like a wall or table, that would double as In the past, parallel processing was exclusive to the high perfor- a display. 134 Embedded projector display technology from mance computing (HPC) community. Now parallel processing Microvision, designed for mobile phones, laptops and other must go mainstream, as we have all become members of the mobile devices, is already turning walls into displays. 135 HPC community since our everyday devices boast so much power. The eight-core Sony Playstation 3 (PS3), introduced in Multicore Chips 2006, is the equivalent of roughly 40 Cray-1 supercomputers With Moore’s Law reaching its twilight years in silicon due circa 1976. In June 2008, the Los Alamos National Laboratory to cooling issues, meaning silicon chips cannot continue set the world record for supercomputer processing speed by their stunning improvements in performance forever (beyond combining more than 12,000 IBM cell processors originally throwing more chips into the hardware), the chip industry has designed for the PS3.140 focused on improving chip performance through multicore chips — that is, putting multiple processors (cores) on a single More recently, Intel announced its first multicore graphics silicon chip, with certain common functions shared. Multiple capable processing unit, Larrabee. Larrabee will have numerous computer functions can be done in parallel, rather than sequen- x86 processor cores and will be able to run existing games and tially, though this presents a challenge because advances in software requiring high-end graphics.141 Larrabee will compete parallel processing software have not kept pace. with high-end graphics processors, targeting the PC graphics market initially.142 Intel hopes that Larrabee will “usher in a new era of parallel computing by offering developers a way to create highly specialized applications, such as games that require visual M EM o Ry BRE AKT H R o U GH : T H E ME MRISTo R computing or scientific software applications that require intensive graphics capabilities. . . .”143 Bringing Parallelism Into the Mainstream A new component for chips has been discovered, called Indeed, more parallelism is on the way. Although games written the memory resistor or “memristor.” The memristor joins and tuned for multiple cores distribute game layers across the the resistor, capacitor and inductor as the fourth funda- cores (i.e., parallelize the processing), most standard software mental component of electrical circuits. Eventually, using on general purpose machines takes, at best, only limited the memristor, engineers could develop a new kind of advantage of the multiple cores and processors available due computer memory that would enhance and eventually to the complexity of parallel programming. Though program- replace today’s dynamic random access memory (D-RAM). mers’ brains (and our brains) process via a massively parallel The memristor would load start-up data faster and could set of neurons, programmers think serially, breaking down a one day lead to systems that remember, understand problem and coding its solution as a series of steps. Advances patterns of data and make decisions, getting closer to in automatically taking these serial solutions, parallelizing how people think.136 (See Smart(er) World.) them, and unifying the results have been slow in coming. But they are coming. Typical consumer-oriented microprocessors have up to eight one company addressing the multicore software challenge, cores on a chip; the industry is moving to chips with 100 or depicted in Figure 36, is RapidMind. RapidMind offers a hardware- more cores.137 Intel has built a prototype 80-core processor, independent Single Program Multiple Data (SPMD) platform though it is not expected to be commercialized until sometime whose APIs integrate with ordinary code (e.g., C++) and leverage around 2012.138 In an effort to help create the parallel processing the potential of all the processors, whether multicore processors software that is desperately needed to keep all these chips busy from AMD, Intel or Sony, or graphics processors from NVIDIA simultaneously, Intel and Microsoft have funded a $20 million or ATI. The RapidMind platform, based on data parallelism, research grant over five years that will create independent has been used to improve 10-fold the performance of an laboratories at the University of California, Berkeley and the Elastography Contrast Enhancement medical imaging and 62
  • 65. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 Figure 36 T HE MU LT I Co R E S o F T WA R E CH ALLE NG E Quad 8-Core Terascale Hardware Core Potential Quad 8-Core Fusion Core PERFORMANCE PowerPC CellBE Capability Gap Multicore # cores Single Software Core Performance GHz Today’s software does not take full advantage of multicore hardware, creating a capability gap. Source: RapidMind analysis system, which constructs a blood flow model to account for anomalies found in an image of the brain or correlates As the virtualization trend ultrasound data to produce a clearer image, all in real time. continues, along with the move Another company tackling the problem is a household name: to multicore, both should pull Apple. At the outset of the company’s 2008 Worldwide Devel- parallelism along with them. opment Conference, Apple CEo Steve Jobs said, “The way the processor industry is going is to add more and more cores, but nobody knows how to program those things. . . . I mean, two, yeah; four, not really; eight, forget it.”144 ToMoRRoW’S NEW MATERIALS At the heart of Apple’s new 2009 operating system, Snow In the long-term — 10 or more years from now — the silicon Leopard, is a technology code-named Grand Central that will chips of today’s platform will be replaced with new materials, provide support for multicore processors, making it easy for representing a significant break with the past 45 years of silicon- developers to create programs that take full advantage of the based processing. As Moore’s Law comes to an end, with no power of multicore Macs. “Snow Leopard further extends support more power able to be eked out of a silicon chip, new materials for modern hardware with open Computing Language (openCL), must be harnessed to increase processing speed and efficiency. which lets any application tap into the vast gigaflops of GPU com- Instead of chips and their associated microelectronics, there puting power previously available only to graphics applications.”145 Virtualization software, increasingly popular in the infrastruc- Instead of chips and their associated ture, is particularly well-suited to parallelism. Virtual software microelectronics, there will be far runs multiple operating systems and application stacks, which have natural functional boundaries that can be distributed across smaller, lighter materials at work: processors and cores. As the virtualization trend continues, atoms, dNA, electron spins and light. along with the move to multicore, both should pull parallelism along with them. 63
  • 66. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS will be far smaller, lighter materials at work: atoms, DNA, sensors to help detect traumatic brain injury (TBI) early on. electron spins and light. This may sound futuristic, but it is Impact sensors in the helmet will relay blast-injury data to not science fiction — labs are busy perfecting these materials first responders in real time. The sensors will continuously now. Although viable commercial solutions may be some time record data about the helmet wearer’s physical condition; away, the horizon is decades, not centuries. this is key to detecting and treating TBI, because soldiers experiencing a blast sometimes do not realize they have sus- Nanotechnology: Making Things Super Small tained a brain injury until hours or days later. Similar systems Nanotechnology, the building of things atom by atom, enables could be used to monitor neurological patients in intensive unprecedented levels of control with incredibly small parts. care, or motorcycle riders so that first responders would Nano parts are on the order of 100 nanometers (billionths know what happened to the rider if there was a crash.147 of a meter) or less; you would have to move a Post-It note The sensors are being designed to be small, low power and half-way around the earth for it to appear three nanometers light weight. in size to you. 146 Researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology are creating Although atomically-precise manufacturing and self-assembly a “power shirt” that uses textile fibers covered with zinc oxide are quite a ways off, the use of nano-sized materials is enabling nanowires to generate electric current from the wearer’s move- exciting innovations that could pave the way for revolutionary ment that could power a range of portable electronic devices — applications in such areas as medicine, smart materials (see great for soldiers, hikers and others on foot.148 The fibers, called Smart(er) World) and energy. This includes innovations such as nanogenerators (see Figure 37), could also be woven into tents, precisely-targeted agents for cancer therapy, artificial blood, curtains and other materials to harness energy from the wind, and equipment that self-repairs. sound vibrations or other mechanical energy.149 For example, University of Illinois researchers are creating a Longer term, the most advanced nanotechnology applica- combat helmet for the U.S. Army containing nanotechnology tions envisioned include artificial organ systems, exaflop laptop Figure 37 Georgia Tech Regents’ Professor Zhong Lin Wang holds a prototype microfiber nanogenerator. The nanogenerator is being woven into shirts to harvest electrical energy from the wearer’s movement to power portable electronic devices. Source: Georgia Institute of Technology 64
  • 67. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 PLATForM MAgIC: 3d PrINTINg Imagine if you could print out a real toy the bottom up, as the print head moves for your child to play with. back and forth. Depending on the size of the object, it can take anywhere That’s the vision of 3D printing: consumers from one to 12 hours to complete a job. using 3D printers at home to print design Once started, though, the job can be left specs off the Web.150 Print anything you unattended — like baking a cake. need, from toys to parts to landscape and furniture designs. The printer is driven by data from com- mercial 3D CAD software that is used If the dawn of the digital age was about to design the object. Most 3D printers A 3D printer produces a physical object moving from atoms to bits, 3D printing use a powder or soft material to build you can hold in your hands, ideal for brings it full circle, moving from bits the model, layer by layer, and include an prototype designs. In this picture, the to atoms. And with that comes some adhesive material for bonding the layers. “printed” object is being cleared of powder that forms during the printing platform magic: Who would have thought Leaders in the field include Z Corporation, 151 process. As 3D printers get cheaper, they you could manufacture a toy from your Stratasys and 3D systems, while interesting will spring up across campuses, offices home printer? new entrants include Desktop Factory and homes and be used for applications and Fab@Home. yet to be imagined. Source: Z Corporation A 3D printer yields a solid object that you can hold in your hands, in contrast to familiar story: Costs Drop, tech- than $10,000, require very little training, a 2D printer that yields a flat image on nology spreads, innovation soars and are capable of being operated in a paper. The implications for education are Additive rapid prototyping machines were typical faculty office, computer lab or home. enormous; as children we learn kinestheti- first introduced over 20 years ago, but At least one vendor has the ambition of cally, by holding and examining things like they were large, expensive and difficult producing 3D printers for less than $1,000 blocks. Now imagine that a laptop designer to operate. Hence they were of limited in five years. “As these printers achieve lower can “print” a 3D model to examine her interest to most organizations except for price points and accessibility, they will design; an architect can “print” a scale a few well-funded labs. However, in the late spring up across campuses, offices and model of a building to help understand 1990s, lower-cost machines using technol- homes and be used for applications yet to and communicate his design; a biochemist ogies such as fused-deposition modeling be imagined,” envisions A. Michael Berman, can “print” accurate models of DNA (FDM) and powder binding began to be chief technology officer at Art Center molecules, enlarged by orders of magnitude, available in the $30,000 to $50,000 range. College of Design in Pasadena, California. to help students and researchers better These machines, which can be used without understand nature; and artists can create special environmental controls and with a This piece was developed, with permission, unique works using the new 3D techniques. modest amount of training, were the first from an article by A. Michael Berman, “3D 3D printers (by our definition). Printing: Making the Virtual Real,” October like Baking a Cake 2007 (http://www.educause.edu/ir/library/ Most 3D printers are additive in that they However, we are on the verge of the intro- pdf/DEC0702.pdf). Dr. Berman can be produce the object layer by layer, from duction of new systems that will cost less contacted at amichaelberman@gmail.com. 65
  • 68. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS computers, efficient solar-based fuel production, removal of computation in a biomolecular environment. In 2006, Israeli greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, and manufacturing researchers developed a molecular computer that uses enzymes based on productive nanosystems. 152 Though these applications to perform calculations from within the human body and monitor are far in the future, nanotechnology is coming: possibly in the release of drugs.157 The progress continues. the next decade, probably in the next 25 years, and almost certainly in the 21st century, according to J. Storrs Hall, chief In contrast to traditional computing’s serial processing, DNA scientist at Nanorex, Inc. and protégé of Eric Drexler, considered computing is similar to parallel processing; the molecules the father of nanotechnology.153 can produce billions of potential answers simultaneously, making DNA computing suitable for solving “fuzzy logic”158 Molecular Computing: Channeling Mother Nature problems that have many solutions, though one may be The human body is a marvel of creation, its millions of optimal (e.g., the traveling salesman problem). In the future molecules serving as natural supercomputers that have the there may be hybrid machines that use silicon for normal potential to perform calculations many times faster than processing tasks and DNA co-processors for tasks they are today’s supercomputers.154 DNA computing (a form of molecular more suited for. computing) attempts to discover the computational power of molecules and design computers based on this new DNA is a plentiful, cheap source of processing power, and it model of computation. DNA computing has many strong can be produced cleanly. But the key advantage is being able features, including: extremely dense information storage, to make computers far smaller than today that are able to enormous parallelism and extraordinary energy efficiency. 155 hold much more data; one pound of DNA has the capacity Though DNA computing is still in its infancy — the field to store more information than all the electronic computers was initially developed in 1994 — it is particularly suited ever built.159 for pharmaceutical and biomedical applications, including implants that release drugs according to conditions sensed In addition to DNA computing, progress is being made in in the body. molecular electronics. In 2007, IBM scientists reported a possible breakthrough when they created a molecular switch that could turn itself on and off without altering its geometric shape. Maintaining a constant shape is important for being The human body is a marvel of able to link molecules together to form logic gates. Also in creation, its millions of molecules 2007, a team of UCLA and California Institute of Technology chemists reported successfully demonstrating a large-scale, serving as natural supercomputers ultra-dense memory device that stores information using that have the potential to perform reconfigurable molecular switches. Both achievements are important steps towards building molecular computers.160 calculations many times faster than today’s supercomputers. Quantum Leap Quantum computers make direct use of natural quantum mechanical phenomena such as spins of electrons or currents in superconducting circuits to store information as quantum In 2003, Israeli scientists demonstrated a limited but function- bits (qubits) and perform computation. A qubit can assume ing molecular computing machine that used DNA molecules the values 0, 1 or both simultaneously — very different from and enzymes, instead of silicon chips, for both data storage the rigid 0 or 1 (on or off) of a binary bit. What makes quantum and processing — a major achievement. The computer can computing so powerful is that qubits can store much more perform 330 trillion operations per second, more than 100,000 information than binary bits, and qubits can be used together times the speed of the fastest PC — all from something that to perform calculations on that information in a parallel, not looks like a drop of water. 156 serial, fashion. That is, quantum computing can process and evaluate many possible permutations of a problem simulta- However, the focus is not on computational power per se, neously. As the number of qubits in these computers scales, but rather on medical applications that require autonomous this capability will enable extremely fast solutions to a wide 66
  • 69. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 range of problems that are currently considered intractable magnetic flux qubits. D-Wave uses a well known technique even on the fastest available supercomputers. Consider the called Adiabatic Quantum Computation (AQC) to solve a following example. wide variety of complex problems in search, optimization, constraint satisfaction and pattern matching. Adiabatic quantum Given an image, a human can easily recognize and label a computers leverage the deep connection between hard math large range of interesting objects in the image — trees, cars, problems and the fundamental laws of nature. They use quantum people, landmarks, etc. This task, seemingly intuitive for physics to do the math. humans, remains beyond the reach of any current automated image labeling system. This problem is of significant interest Special purpose adiabatic quantum processors can be orders- not only because of the obvious economic importance of of-magnitude faster than classical digital processors. Large- image search, but also because it is mathematically related scale adiabatic quantum computers have not yet been built to a wide range of tasks at which humans currently outperform so it is not yet possible to know empirically how well they machines. A technology that can recognize and label objects will perform, but leading researchers expect them to achieve in images will be able to solve many of the outstanding prob- quadratic speed-ups over existing classical computing. This lems standing in the way of true machine intelligence, including means that calculations that currently take hours will be learning and automated reasoning. able to be done in seconds. As the quantum computers scale, they will potentially be able to solve in a few days problems that would otherwise require millions or even billions of CPU years using today’s computers. An additional benefit is that quantum processors are extremely low power Quantum computing can process and (power consumption and heat generation are reduced by evaluate many possible permutations factors of thousands) when compared to current state-of- the-art systems. of a problem simultaneously. D-Wave is working with Google to test a proof-of concept structured classification application using a quantum computer running at 28 qubits. “our computers will be able to solve a General purpose quantum computing is still in the research wide range of high-value structured classification problems stage, as noted in a February 2008 MITRE newsletter (MITRE, in applications such as image matching, machine learning, a federally funded R&D center, is doing joint research with scheduling and complex database search,” says Jonathan Princeton University on quantum computing): Silverman, director of product marketing at D-Wave. “We are currently testing prototype versions of the hardware but we Still a work in progress, quantum computing is closing in will need to get to 1,000 qubits or more to be com-mercial- on a time when small quantum computing machines com- ly viable.” D-Wave expects to have a 512-qubit system run- prised of a few qubits will appear on the research scene. ning by the end of 2008 and a 1,024-qubit system available At first, they’ll probably come as quantum peripherals tied commercially in 2009. “once the technology scales, it will to classical computers, with the peripheral used only for be able to solve very hard problems significantly beyond the specialized tasks. Until then, the security of current bank- scope of traditional HPC systems,” Silverman asserts. ing codes can be maintained. But with all the attention being given to quantum computing, traditional computing Let There Be Light may soon be in store for some mighty stiff competition. 161 Ah, to have computers that operate at the speed of light — or close to it. Researchers are working on tapping light, already D-Wave Systems is pioneering the development of quantum used in fiber optics for high-speed telecommunications, to computers for commercial applications. Rather than wait for power computers. Using photons instead of electrons is theo- general purpose quantum computing to become commercially retically much faster because photons travel much faster than feasible, D-Wave is leveraging the properties of quantum devices an electric current. Photons have two unique properties that that are buildable today to create special purpose analog give them a boost: entanglement (instantaneous communi- computers. D-Wave’s quantum processors are arrays of cation no matter what the distance) and superposition (the 67
  • 70. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS ability to process multiple options simultaneously). other eliminate data transfer bottlenecks in supercomputers where benefits include lower cross talk, better signal integrity at hundreds or thousands of processors are involved. The research high frequencies, and lower power requirements at higher involves precisely aligning chips to make it possible to transmit transmission rates. light across the surface of the chips in ultra-narrow channels called wave guides. If the idea proves successful, it would be possible to optical computing is in early stages in the lab. A key challenge create smaller machines that are 1,000 times faster than today’s is that it is very difficult to use light to control the state of a computers.164 Funded by the U.S. Defense Advanced Research beam of light (on or off), though in 2007 researchers at Harvard Projects Agency (DARPA), the five-year project was announced University announced they had developed a workable approach in March 2008 and includes partners Stanford University, the that uses only one photon rather than large bursts of photons University of California at San Diego, Luxtera and Kotura. to switch states. Such an optical transistor is a key step towards building a practical optical computer.162 Around the same time, NEC Corporation announced an advance in optical connections between chips that will pave the way IBM announced a prototype optical interconnect technology for supercomputers to reach speeds of 10 petaflops, roughly in February 2008 that could enable very large file transfers in 20 times faster than the world’s fastest computer.165 seconds with extremely low power. The “green optical link” could enable speeds as high as eight terabits per second using power overall, the platform makeover is about optimizing perfor- equivalent to one 100-watt light bulb.163 The technology puts mance: getting the right power to the right applications, not optical chips and optical data buses in a single package and uses wasting hardware or energy, not running software you don’t standard components, a big step towards commercialization. need. The next generation of new materials, which will take us well beyond Moore’s Law, is on its way. Expect new levels Sun Microsystems has launched a high-risk project to use light of high performance computing and a wealth of new applica- instead of wires between chips to speed data transfer. The tech- tions and solvable problems. nology, part of a field called silicon photonics, would, if successful, 68
  • 71. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 sMart(er) WorlD Smarter everything makes us smarter everywhere. Inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil has long been predicting a • proactively associates and correlates data based on grasped smart(er) world. Extrapolating from trends that show acceler- meaning ating CPU power and decreasing memory and storage density, • leverages real-world background information to assimilate combined with accelerating advances in biology, Kurzweil new data — i.e., learns predicts that by 2029 we will have reverse-engineered the • reasons from what it learns brain and produced for $1,000 a computer version 10 times as • makes common-sense recommendations and predictions smart that passes the Turing Test — that is, that converses so • makes decisions and acts on behalf of humans fluently it fools most humans into thinking it is human. To put it another way: “A working definition of intelligence is the This will lead to what Kurzweil calls the Singularity: “technological ability to acquire, through experience, knowledge and models change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the of the world (including other entities and self), and use them fabric of human history.” 166 Although we are decades from the productively to solve novel problems and deal successfully with Singularity, which Kurweil puts at 2045, he can be proud of unanticipated circumstances.”167 his predictions to date. Today many technologies are becoming smart, leveraging small, powerful, inexpensive processors and HoW To GET SMART(ER) communications technology to take on tasks once accomplished only by humans. With an understanding of what constitutes smart, this section discusses some of the key building blocks for making things smarter. Kurzweil predicts that by 2029 we Smarter Assistants will have reverse-engineered the brain Technology from MyCyberTwin is closing in on Kurzweil’s goal, and produced for $1,000 a computer letting you create a virtual assistant (avatar) and train it to be version 10 times as smart that passes your proxy, speaking and acting on your behalf and fooling many humans into thinking it’s you. the Turing Test. The technology, a unique blend of heuristic algorithms, knowl- edge mining and knowledge representation, takes less than six WHAT IS SMART? weeks to train and test, is 95 percent accurate, learns to be even Though the philosophical debate over whether computers can more accurate with use, and can actually analyze the mood (are ever be said to think may never be resolved, there is general you angry?) and personality (are you an agreeable person?) of agreement on what it means for technology to be smart. Smart the person communicating with it and modify its own communi- technology approaches human cognition when it: cation style accordingly. A cybertwin communicates via text chat, which can be supplemented with voice output from the avatar. • senses and recognizes patterns as humans do • appreciates the semantics — the meaning — of the patterns The cybertwin technology is being used by PBL Media and it perceives, be they text, speech, special or situational Fairfax Media, two large media companies in Australia, as well 69
  • 72. L E A D IN G E D G E| Fo RU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS as several banks and an airline to handle customer inquiries care and electronic sales. Beneath the InteliWISE Conversational and transactions. (See Figure 38.) Each cybertwin is designed Agent, which communicates via chat by the user, digitized voice with the enterprise’s specific goals in mind, whether it’s get- by the avatar, and context-dynamic video, is semantic technol- ting people to sign up for a credit card or simply keeping ogy that helps make sense of external client databases, including them on the site as long as possible. As a result of deploying customized CRM feeds, news feeds and dictionary sources cybertwin technology, one company has been able to cut its of definitions (e.g., Wikipedia). InteliWISE intends to create call center staff in half. exact user profiles that will help answer such questions as “Is the user satisfied with our solutions?” and “If we identify the Indeed, what’s really exciting about this technology is it gives user’s knowledge level, what kind of response is best suited enterprises the ability to scale in a digital environment, be it for this kind of user?” a Web site or a virtual world. A single cybertwin can handle millions of inquiries simultaneously, across several areas of The InteliWISE technology applies “just the right amount” of expertise, says Liesl Capper, co-founder of MyCyberTwin. In intelligence rather than a heavy-handed approach, making it the future, smart avatars will be the primary way to handle simple but effective. The technology can be deployed on Web customer service. sites, kiosks, mobile phones and as a widget on a PC. InteliWISE solutions have automated up to 70 percent of call center queries, InteliWISE has also seized on this opportunity, providing smart with over 80 percent of them answered correctly. The technol- avatars — it calls them conversational agents — for online customer ogy has been deployed at LoT Polish Airlines (see Figure 39), The Crowley Group, Carolina Medical Centre and Public TV (all in Poland). For the future, InteliWISE is working on making its avatars more autonomous and deploying voice recognition, which would enable its technology, which already uses voice synthesis, to be accessed via telephone. However, given an avatar’s well- defined problem space (e.g., bank policies, airline procedures), it is not clear that the more general problem of getting them to understand natural language will be solved soon, though progress is being made. As more business is done online and consumers seek a personal experience, avatars will be the only way to handle growth and provide individual attention. “The only way to scale our physical limits into virtual infinity is through virtual assistants,” says Paul Gustafson, director of CSC’s Leading Edge Forum. Engaging with an avatar will be much more appealing than clicking through a virtual space or poring over a FAQ. That is why MyCyberTwin is targeting search as the next frontier for its technology. A smart avatar will be able to find what you want through a conversational-style set of questions that enable you to narrow the search. Bringing Understanding to the Web Figure 38 This demonstration of a cybertwin for ANZ Bank in The Web itself is gaining a more human-like, semantic under- Australia shows the cybertwin answering the customer’s initial question, “What products do you offer?” The customer has typed standing of the information it has traditionally compared using her next question, “Do you have any credit cards that earn air keyword matching, devoid of meaning. Web 3.0, dubbed the miles?”, in the chat box. See demo at: Semantic Web by Web inventor Sir Tim Berners-Lee in 1998, http://www.mycybertwin.com/demo/anz/ Source: MyCyberTwin focuses on representing meaning and providing reasoning 70
  • 73. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 objects and procedures; and federated stores rather than large local databases. The net result is being able to find relevant information, extract embed- ded and intrinsic knowledge, reason automatically, solve more complex prob- lems, and manage computer systems autonomically. Information-centric patterns of com- puting have reached their limits in terms of coping with scale, complexity, security, mobility, rich media interac- tion and autonomic behavior. As more people, devices, information and com- Figure 39 LoT Polish Airlines uses a conversational agent from InteliWISE to provide merce rush to the Web, a smarter, more information about on-board services, frequent flier program, check-in, tickets and reservations, automated environment is needed to baggage transport, and travel to other countries. Source: LOT Polish Airlines manage and make sense of the Web’s treasure trove of data and transaction opportunities. Web 3.0 addresses these capabilities. When information on the Web is encoded in issues by connecting knowledge, and it lays the foundation semantic form, its meaning laid bare, it becomes transparent for Web 4.0, the Web that connects intelligence in an envi- and accessible to a variety of reasoning engines. 168 Web 3.0 ronment where people and things reason and communicate promises to expose much information that has escaped our together.171 (See Figure 40.) attention and will make the Web work more effectively for us. Said to be in beta now, Web 3.0 will be big business; the Semantic Search market for semantic technologies and applications is expected Broadly speaking, the Holy Grail of the Semantic Web is seman- to exceed $50 billion in 2010.169 tic search: giving the Internet the ability to find what we meant to ask for, not merely the keywords we used to ask. Semantic search is appearing in a number of places. In May 2008 Power- set launched a beta of its namesake product, a semantic search As more business is done online layer atop Wikipedia and Freebase, with tools to help extract, and consumers seek a personal organize and navigate content by meaning. experience, avatars will be the only way to handle growth and provide As more people, devices, information individual attention. and commerce rush to the web, a smarter, more automated environment With Web 3.0, the Internet shifts from information-centric is needed to manage and make sense to knowledge-centric computing.170 This shift emphasizes end- user rather than IT development; unified platforms rather than of the web’s treasure trove of data separate technologies for documents, models and behaviors; and transaction opportunities. systems that can learn at run time from user input and system learning about the environment; external knowledge struc- tures rather than embedded, hard-coded reasoning; “glass box” transparent semantic agents rather than “black box” 71
  • 74. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS Figure 40 EVo LU T I o N o F T H E W E B To 2020 Autonomic Semantic Agent Agent webs Artificial Intelligent Natural Ecosystems Intelligence Agents Language Intellectual that know, Property Smart learn and reason Personal Spime Markets as humans do Increasing Knowledge Connectivity & Reasoning Assistants Blogjects 3 4 Semantic Communities The Semantic Web The Ubiquitous Web Connects Knowledge Connects Intelligence Semantic Ontologies Semantic Enterprise Semantic Website & UI Semantic Semantic Search Blog Wiki Semantic Knowledge Social networks Semantic Bases Semantic Thesauri & Desktop Context-Aware Email Taxonomies Games Bots Multi-user Enterprise Mash-ups Wiki Community Gaming Search Engines Portals Portals Marketplaces Content Portals Web Sites RSS & Auctions Blogs Social 1 2 Bookmarking The Web PIMS The Social Web Connects Information Connects People Desktop Email Databases Social “Push” Conferencing Networks Publish & Subscribe P2P File Sharing Instant Messaging File Servers Increasing Social Connectivity Source: Nova Spivak, Radar Networks; John Breslin, DERI; and Mills Davis, Project 10X Freebase (free database) is an open, collaboratively-edited is hard. But unlocking the meaning hidden in words promises “database of the world’s knowledge.”172 Freebase analyzes a big payoff. data sources such as Wikipedia sentence by sentence, and puts summaries of the most important concepts into a Hakia.com, another contender, uses semantic technology database. For example, when processing the entry on the to deliver search results backed by credible sources, such Golden Gate Bridge, Freebase would store the concepts as those recommended by librarians rather than popular “bridge earns name” and “winds prevent operation.” Freebase rankings. Hakia also connects you with people who asked users can upload tables of data by domain and type, such the same question you did, and is available on mobile as IBM’s acquisitions this year or all primary election results, phones. so they are available to answer queries. Highly specialized search sites including Like.com (images), Powerset leverages Freebase to build and query these Vast.com (entities and attributes), Pandora (music), Metacarta tables, and asserts that queries with linguistic structure (location) and Kayak (travel) are designed to understand a better leverage the technology, prompting the Powerset specific area. other sites, such as Search Wikia, Topicle and engine to try to specifically answer the question. When the ChaCha, use people to manually refine search results. query “Who won the Republican nomination?” was entered in May 2008, Powerset had the answer (John McCain), Some vendors focus on relevance matching in the enter- though the answer was the seventh result. (The fifth result prise, including Twine, Llesiant and Tacit Software. Their services had the letters “w” “o” “n” highlighted in the word “won’t.”) use semantics to discover information of interest to individ- Cleary the technology is still in beta; language processing ual employees and to locate expertise in the organization. 72
  • 75. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 “Knowledge is not necessarily digital; it’s often tacit — in In addition to locating expertise, NASA is using semantics in our heads,” says David Gilmour, CEo of Tacit Software. Tacit’s other ways. It is using Swoop to correlate ontologies across Illumio software draws out employee interests by creating multiple groups inside and outside NASA to create an interna- a special user profile based on where the person browses tional standard for planetary data. NASA is also using Science and his e-mail messages and documents. Through word organizer, a semantic hypermedia system, for organizing science parsing and statistical techniques that simulate semantics, and other project information from the individual’s perspective. the software reveals the person’s strengths and areas of “There is lots of information out there but it’s only useful when interest, so it knows what kinds of information would be it addresses your particular problem or when it’s analyzed relevant to this person (and delivers it), and when this from your perspective,” says Jeanne Holm, chief knowledge person would be suitable to respond to a query or provide architect at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. information (and arranges the response, with the person’s permission). The National Library of Medicine, working with CSC, is explor- ing an open source digital content repository tool, Fedora, Semantics in the Enterprise that provides semantic capabilities to contextualize and inter- An interesting application of semantics in the enterprise is relate digital content from many sources. one of its interesting being able to locate expertise quickly. Semantics enable the features is that it uses RDF to represent the relationships organization to build connections between people, informa- between digital objects stored in the repository. tion and events, breaking down stovepiped information to search it more effectively and find what you need fast. For example, one digital object might represent a collection of materials, and other digital objects might be members of that NASA offers a good example. When the Space Shuttle collection. or, a network of relationships might exist between takes off, any malfunction, no matter how minor, must be a set of digital objects about Thomas Jefferson: a scanned dealt with immediately by a team of specialists. NASA is letter penned by Jefferson, a photo of a painting of Jefferson, using Semantic Web technologies to quickly locate exper- a document about the artist, a diagram of Monticello, and tise throughout the agency when it is required, whether for a document about the construction of Monticello. Searching dealing with mission-critical situations or for staffing proj- the repository using these types of relationships will help ects in general. The PoPS (People, organizations, Projects, users drill down more quickly to the specific content they Skills) system draws on databases throughout NASA to seek. The latest release of Fedora uses Mulgara, a scalable integrate information about its nearly 70,000 civil service open source RDF database, or “semantic triplestore,” that and contractor workers.173 This information includes proj- indexes all the relationships in the repository and supports ects worked on, articles published, competency information, the World Wide Web Consortium’s (W3C’s) new SPARQL contact information, and code of accounts (time reporting) semantic query language. information. “As libraries provide more information resources to the public So, for example, to find a foam specialist, PoPs would search on the Web, they bring their strong heritage of cataloging the code of accounts database to see who had charged time — that is, describing resources using very formal methods,” to a related area, and then would search other databases to observes Ed Luczak, principal systems architect at CSC who narrow the field to one or a few people. In the past, locating is on assignment at the National Library of Medicine. “In an expert involved e-mail queries or word-of-mouth, taking information systems and on the Web, libraries are using very hours if not days, whereas with PoPs it takes just minutes. well-defined XML-based metadata schemes and, often, controlled To do this, NASA created an RDF federation of three core vocabularies to describe resources. This richness in describ- databases (project data, skills information, and people and ing resources makes the resources easier to find or discover organizational data) and used the Swoop ontology editor to when someone is searching for them. Libraries typically don’t create an oWL ontology for the federation. (RDF and oWL call this ‘semantics’ although most of the rest of us would.” are fundamental tools underpinning the Semantic Web.) This Recall that the W3C “Semantic Web” working group was ontology relates relevant information in the federation, which originally called the “Metadata” working group; the ideas are can be queried by users dynamically to find the expertise closely related, and they are being applied more widely to they needed quickly. real-world problems today. 73
  • 76. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS Cataloging the data — building an ontology — is crucial to Semantics Meet Services describing a problem space that can be semantically searched, At the infrastructure level, vendors are busy injecting semantics and even more crucial when that problem space is particu- into foundational services and processes. For example, Zepheira larly complex. Consider the very real problem of terrorism, builds software for semantic SoA (Service oriented Archi- which involves identifying complicated sequences of events tecture). With semantic SoA (SSoA), resources and services and unraveling webs of personal connections. Researchers at are wrapped with semantic identifiers so they can be shared the University of Maryland, College Park are building a terror- across the enterprise, not confined to the local system. By ism ontology using new techniques to help the intelligence clearly identifying and describing all resources relevant to a community examine information from many angles and surface service, including relationships across services, enterprises can relationships.174 With ontologies, relationships become a first- begin to create automated tools and dashboards to manage class citizen, as important as the data itself. change and adapt quickly to new business opportunities. Indeed, establishing relationships — via ontologies, cataloging Imagine a service called “document to phone” for transferring or other means — is what enables the beauty of semantics to a document to a mobile phone. In a typical SoA environment be fully realized. Semantics have no value until the connections there is very little descriptive information about the business nature of the service. The descriptive information is technical — about message data structures and network protocol require- ments rather than the characteristics of the document and the with ontologies, relationships mobile phone that would be relevant to the business. become a first-class citizen, In SSoA, you wrap the service with information that describes as important as the data itself. a document, a phone, and what the service does. Then, when an application needs a service for transferring HTML to a mo- bile phone, it can find the “document to phone” service because are made. one company, Mondeca, focuses on classifying doc- HTML is a kind of document, and the environment makes the con- uments and other content to determine how the data relates. nection. “We’re adding business vocabulary to the specifications Mondeca’s Intelligent Topic Manager works with structured for services,” explains Eric Miller, president of Zepheira. “We’re and unstructured text and multimedia data to identify topics surfacing the meaning of services, and the meaning of everything and create a network of content related to a particular topic, touched by services, so you can use services and integrate with using Semantic Web standards. Classifying content in this services in ways not originally anticipated by the designers.” way improves navigation and search and is an important step towards the larger semantic enterprise. Mondeca’s technology one example of how a SSoA can help the enterprise is financial has been used to classify legal terminology, scientific publica- trading. Trading is enhanced by making connections between tions, and e-tourism information, for example. evolving news events and publicly traded companies or commod- ities. These connections are facilitated by the effective integration Also on the road to the semantic enterprise and the Semantic of private data from analysts, licensed third party content and, Web are microformats, simple open data standards that make it increasingly, publicly available information on the Web. Many easy to exchange information and enable agents on the Web to of the existing service interfaces used for specific applica- work on your behalf. A vcard uses a microformat for exchang- tions of this data can be wrapped in a SSoA architecture so ing business cards; now the travel industry, namely TripBlox, has the service and even the related data can be leveraged for developed a microformat for publishing trip ideas, wish lists and additional uses beyond their original purpose. The ability to favorite itineraries. Travel bloggers and enthusiasts can publish wrap existing services, use them in new ways, and rapidly their travel plans and information using the TripBlox publishing create new ways to connect them to support more effective standard. TripBlox stores all content in RDF and uses an oWL data integration and analysis enables more effective trading ontology to make sense of it. Reasoning techniques are used to and creates competitive advantage. infer connections between trips, activities, hotels and trip authors. Defining the context of the data makes it much easier to understand SSoA is also very powerful for compliance management and and leverage. That’s what the Semantic enterprise is all about. corporate mergers; information systems must be adaptable 74
  • 77. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 to policy changes and merger requirements, respectively. • Determine mutual funds’ net asset value and compliance Traditional SoA helps break down stovepiped applications status daily. and data, but SSoA takes it a step further. SSoA lets you • Calculate the cost of a product, like an airplane, before create enterprise-wide models for policy management or for it is built. coordinating separate processes from corporations after a • Compare results of scientific studies to see how they merger. The key is in direct expression of business context impact other studies. within the information systems, so that IT and managers can collaborate closely to translate business changes into systems. The Metatomix platform provides a suite of tools to create an Without such models, changes established by the business ontology, connect data sources, semantically integrate them, are not reflected rapidly in the services. SSoA can help orga- and either persist the data in an RDF data store or provide a nizations react quickly to regulatory changes and adopt new real-time, virtual view of the data. Metatomix’s differentiator is strategies fast. applying rules and policies on top of the ontology reasoning, to yield greater insight. For example, a policy would look for an The SSoA infrastructure includes two key components. Per- event, such as three people applying for a credit card from the sistent URLs (PURLs) are an open industry convention for same company, and trigger a “possible money laundering” alert establishing unique identifiers for resources (data, documents, when the event occurs, automatically notifying an analyst and services) across all information systems so the resources remain creating a fraud case in the system. intact amidst social or organizational change. Remix is a Web- based application platform from Zepheira that allows people to combine Web content with data sources ranging from data- using semantics has the potential bases to desktop office application files, and publish the results internally or externally on the Web. to remove many of the tasks Resources and services are identified using the language of the traditionally associated with business, as defined in an ontology. When creating an ontology, application implementation there does not need to be agreement up front on terms and definitions. you can create a simple infrastructure that wraps projects, and deliver systems that existing services such that they connect to other services as needed — they can establish the link. The SSoA supports many provide business processes that can different policies and the fact that they might change. (Remix adapt and evolve as users explore is the tool for this.) business process efficiencies. “We empower employees to stitch services together the way they need to, and record those stitchings for future use,” says Miller. This gives the enterprise flexibility rather than imposing a single, top-down view. Companies can make the connection between stovepiped data sources and detect fraud faster. By identifying relationships Zepheira intends to have its entire infrastructure ready by the across data, customers and accounts, and being able to make end of 2009, so enterprises can move from prototype applica- decisions in real time (e.g., do not accept this person’s credit tions to full-scale implementation. card application), banks can save millions. In the past, fraud de- tection could take six to nine months as banks collected data Like Zepheira, Metatomix focuses on enterprise infrastructure and searched for patterns of fraud after the fact, losing millions to connect existing systems and access them semantically. in bad debt in the process.175 Enterprises are using the Metatomix Semantic Platform to: one financial services firm using the Metatomix platform • Identify criminals based on background checks and aggregates data from over 6,000 mutual funds daily, generates other data. their net asset value, and determines whether or not the funds • Stop anti-money laundering and other types of fraud. are in compliance with their specific regulations. This activity 75
  • 78. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS Figure 41 Delaycast.com uses predictive modeling to forecast flight delays and cancellations. The right column shows predicted minimums and maximums. Source: Delaycast.com is done in a one-hour window and includes aggregating data The potential for disruption comes if you give business people from other sources in North America, Europe and Asia. Using (end users) the ability to define business processes and system semantic technology, the firm can analyze data on the fly requirements in ways that IT systems can understand, without and look for anomalies or trends for its mutual fund clients needing IT consultants to interpret the requirements, identify without having to hard code the work. The firm estimates it is gaps and issues, and specify configurations and customizations. saving over 100,000 person-hours a year using this revamped From a business change point of view, semantics enable the busi- process. Additionally, with the semantic platform the firm can ness person to understand how the process step he or she is create new value-added services for its clients quickly. responsible for fits into the overall, end-to-end business process. Using semantics has the potential to remove many of the tasks Another opportunity for semantics is connecting business process traditionally associated with application implementation projects, management (BPM) services with semantic capability. Integrated and deliver systems that provide business processes that can Project SUPER (Semantics Utilised for Process Management adapt and evolve as users explore business process efficiencies. within and Between Enterprises), led by the European Union, focuses on creating a semantic user interface to business applica- Peering into the Crystal Ball tion development. Ultimately this would shift control from IT to When something can predict well, like the proverbial crystal ball, business people, enabling them to describe requirements, systems we think of it as smart. New technologies and techniques are helping set-up and modifications in standard English. CSC is exploring predict outcomes, putting prediction power in the hands of con- how to use semantic BPM to accelerate application delivery. sumers and addressing areas as fickle as a sales person’s behavior. 76
  • 79. L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 For instance, Delaycast.com uses predictive modeling to let profiles are based on forward-looking models, and as such, are consumers know if flights will be delayed or cancelled at certain never 100% accurate. Looking forward, we cannot predict foul U.S. airports, when, and for how long. The company has built weather, the grounding of a fleet of MD80s or the landing of mathematical models of the U.S. air transportation system that Air Force one. Nevertheless, the insight will help travelers avoid analyze flight delay and cancellation patterns and project them known troubles.”176 Delaycast is a free Web service that makes into the future. Enter the departure and arrival airports, airline, powerful predictive technology an everyday consumer tool. flight time and time of day and get an estimate of whether and for how long a flight will be delayed before it happens, as shown Predicting flights is one thing, but what about predicting in Figure 41. something less tangible like behavior? Predicting how a sales person will perform and improving his or her performance is of course, predicting the future is not an exact science. As the focus of Spring Lake Technologies. The company’s Smart- Delaycast notes on its Web site: “All of our predictions and Series software analyzes profiles of individual sales people, Figure 42 Predictive software gives a sales person tips for an upcoming presentation to a prospective client based on an analysis of the sales person and the prospect. The goal is to help the sales person be more aligned with the prospect’s behaviors and motivations, increasing the sales person’s effectiveness. The meter reflects the alignment strength between the sales person and the prospect. The stronger the score, the more positive the alignment. This illustration shows that for the upcoming presentation, the sales person is not well aligned; the system predicts how the prospect will act in the presentation and gives selling recommendations for the sales person. Source: Spring Lake Technologies 77
  • 80. DIGTAL TRUST E Fo RU8 L E A D IN G E D G | VoL. M LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS consisting of 20 behavioral attributes and 14 dominant traits, the technology. It’s all about working smart by leveraging what against a composite profile of the optimal sales person. The you know — the characteristics of your top sales people — and software integrates predictive technologies, applied behavioral using metrics, not guesswork, to maximize performance and science and the art of selling into an engine that predicts how minimize the cost of hiring the “wrong person.” sales people will behave, and provides customized recommenda- tions for how to improve performance. The system gets smarter Predictive behavioral software is also being used to help as people are added to (or subtracted from) the optimal profile marketers better understand consumer actions and target composite. advertising accordingly. ValueClick Media’s Precision BT software suite, launched in July 2008, applies predictive algorithms to Individuals can also be analyzed for how they will perform with behavioral targeting, helping marketers identify the best pros- a particular client (too structured for the client? not structured pects from hundreds of consumer interest segments based on enough?) based on an analysis of the client’s profile and how the marketer’s objectives and the consumer’s likelihood to take the individual’s behavior and traits map to it. (See Figure 42.) action in the future.177 Better predictors of behavior will find Similarly, prospective hires can be analyzed to predict the many uses in marketing, sales, operations and other areas. likelihood of their success before they join a new company. Brain Power It is difficult to assess behavior without sophisticated instru- There are many ways to be smart, but how about tapping the mentation. The SmartSeries software is based on research brain directly? Heavy machinery operators in mines in Australia from over 25,000 sales profiles that measure characteris- can wear a “Smart Cap” that senses fatigue by reading brain tics of effectiveness; over 8,000 seller and buyer behavioral waves. (See Figure 43.) AngloCoal trialed the Smart Cap in attributes; over 240,000 behavioral tendencies and sales February 2008; the cap transmits a fatigue rating (a single digit best practices; and 144 complex buyer behaviors modeled number) wirelessly to a computer in the vehicle’s cab or to a by type. The software uses regression analysis and mathemat- mobile phone, allowing the operator to be warned by a flashing ical formulations to analyze profiles and generate individual display or an alarm. Tired drivers can be given a rest break, recommendations for selling more effectively. Recommenda- improving safety and productivity. The sensor technology in tions are situation specific, and the software self-learns with the cap is extremely precise, reading electrical scalp activity every interaction. As the sales person has additional interac- of just a few microvolts. The cap could potentially be used by tions with the client, he answers additional questions about the drivers of all kinds of vehicles, including cars. client for the system, which gets smarter about the client’s tendencies. Another brain-savvy system entering the market targets video gamers. Players can control action in a game by wearing a special headset from Emotiv Systems, available at the end of 2008, that reads brain waves. By merely concentrating on moving an object, The predictive power of the software the player moves the object.178 gives organizations new tools to hone In the lab, researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology are employee skills and get everyone exploring how to tap brain waves to control a cursor (“Brain- Browser”) or operate a wheel chair (“Aware Chair”) by sensing closer to being peak performers. certain wave activities as the user gazes at the computer or control screen. At Duke University, researchers have enabled a monkey, outfitted with electrodes in her brain, to walk a robotic dog by merely thinking about it. The prediction is that in 10 The predictive power of the software gives organizations new years intelligent brain-computer interfaces that let people tools to hone employee skills and get everyone closer to being communicate mentally with objects and other people will be peak performers. often just a 10-15 percent increase in sales, available commercially.179 which Spring Lake Technologies’ clients have reported, is significant. RightNow Technologies, Primavera Software and If mind reading gets your attention, get this: researchers at Advent Software have reported improved effectiveness with the University of California at Berkeley have created software 78
  • 81. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE| FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8 moving full force in that direction. There are many possibilities for innovation between now and the Singularity. To take just one example, if we can understand protein folding, a problem scientists have been working on for 30 years, we can under- stand how life works, how diseases operate, and how to create exact drugs in days, not years, that do not require a lot of experimentation.182 That’s really, really smart. Computers will get smarter because of their ability to aggre- gate information from so many sources and minds, creating a collective wisdom like never before. Collective wisdom draws strength from the tenet that more brains are better than one; virtual markets that aggregate data from thousands and make predictions (e.g., the Hollywood Stock Exchange) are one example of this. However, acquiring and assimilat- ing information from a broad range of sources is generally a very slow process. Having bots that can troll for data and not only find it but parse through it to bring meaning and understanding is the goal. Computers will get smarter because of their ability to aggregate information from so many sources and minds, creating a collective Figure 43 The Smart Cap (prototype on top) senses if you are wisdom like never before. tired; the finished cap with the circuitry concealed is below. The mobile phone shows the feedback display (a fatigue rating of 3). Source: CRCMining Australia of course, there is still the challenge of the quality of the (a decoder) that predicts brain activity based on what you are “wisdom” itself. Even with all the data in the world, not everyone looking at. The decoder’s smarter understanding of what you applies good wisdom or judgment. Collective wisdom depends are looking at or focusing on could eventually lead to mind on the crowd you are drawing from. Hopefully that crowd is reading. 180 Along these lines, “brain fingerprinting” is a contro- sharp, diverse and well-intentioned. versial proposed investigative technique that measures brain wave responses to words, phrases or pictures to determine In the end, getting smart(er) is about being better informed whether or not they are familiar to you. one application is lie and, as a result, having greater potential to make better decisions. detection, 181 where “do you know the person in this picture?” It is like information transparency on steroids. organizations need could elicit a different response through brain wave detection to prepare for a smart(er) world, no matter what form it takes. than what the person says. For one thing is sure: Although fast will beat big, smart(er) will beat fast — and everything is getting smart(er). GET SMART(ER) NoW Although we still have decades to go on Kurzweil’s vision of a super-smart world — if it even materializes — we are nonetheless 79
  • 82. DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M thriving on Disruption The 21st century will be laden with digital disruptions. These growth, and the inception of new industries.”185 That growth disruptions are forming the foundation for a new economy, will come from what Arthur calls new “arrangements-of-use”186 the Networked Information Economy. This economy, identified for the technologies, as complementary infrastructure is built by Harvard professor yochai Benkler in his book The Wealth to make full use of the new digital technologies. The digital of Networks, finds value predominantly in the production, disruptions we have described will be coupled with new enhancement and sharing of information (e.g., financial services, “arrangements-of-use” so that enterprises and individuals can accounting, software, science, ideas, designs, opinions) and take full advantage of the disruptions. cultural content (e.g., movies, books, music). Benkler argues that we are rapidly exiting the Industrial Infor- mation Economy, which merely placed an information layer atop “The digitization of business is steadily the hard-goods-based industrial economy, and hurtling full-force transforming the economy, and the into the Networked Information Economy. “The change brought about by the networked information environment is deep,” writes next two decades will see continually Benkler. “It is structural. It goes to the very foundations of how rising productivity, increasing growth, liberal markets and liberal democracies have coevolved for almost two centuries.”183 and the inception of new industries.” — W. Brian Arthur Benkler continues: “A series of changes in the technologies, economic organization, and social practices of production in this environment has created new opportunities for how we make and exchange information, knowledge, and culture. These For example, in New Wave of Waves we are already seeing changes have increased the role of nonmarket and nonproprietary a complementary infrastructure mature. What used to be production, both by individuals alone and by cooperative efforts independent infrastructures supporting telephony, cable TV and in a wide range of loosely or tightly woven collaborations.”184 mobile voice are rapidly converging into a unified experience enabled by the Internet. The same holds true with data net- This speaks directly to the New Media, Living in a New Reality working in the enterprise. No one would dream of standing up a and Social Power disruptions, and indirectly to the other digital network based on proprietary protocols or e-mail systems that disruptions. These digital disruptions are powering the Networked can’t communicate outside the enterprise, but this was exactly Information Economy and may be the biggest challenge to the the case in the early 1990s. or, consider how the Platform status quo the world has ever seen. Makeover trend towards cloud computing completely changes how we provision applications, data and other enterprise The overall impact of today’s digital disruptions may take years resources — a strong indicator that infrastructures are aiming to be felt. W. Brian Arthur of the Sante Fe Institute writes that at higher levels of service and interoperability. In Living in a New “beneath the surface storms and uncertainties, the digitization Reality, virtual worlds are providing a global, sensory-filled of business is steadily transforming the economy, and the next fabric for people to participate in regardless of time and place. two decades will see continually rising productivity, increasing This is an entirely new infrastructure for remote collaboration. 80
  • 83. L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU M DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS These new infrastructures are the basis for Information Transpar- revolution to fully blossom are the 1,001 subtechnologies, ency and its successor, a Smart(er) World. Both draw strength arrangements, and architectures that adapt us to the new from unified communications — we know more about people, technologies and them to us. Their arrival takes time, and it places and things and can reason and predict better from these defines the buildout period as one that creates the arrange- connections. Both benefit from more powerful, agile platforms ments and subtechnologies that bring the new possibilities that can analyze and make sense of enormous amounts of into full use.”187 information rapidly. Platform Makeover will especially help a Smart(er) World as new materials beyond silicon provide So put today’s digital disruptions on your radar and realize enormous computational power that gets machines much they are a work in progress as supporting technologies and closer to emulating the brain. new behaviors take hold. Today’s digital disruptions lay down important foundations and principles for the new economy Building out these infrastructures in full will take time and to build and thrive on. work. Arthur declares: “. . . what’s needed for the [information] 81
  • 84. DIGTAL DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M notes 1. Clayton Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail (Harvard Business School Press: Boston, 1997), p. xv. 2. Center for Digital Storytelling, http://www.storycenter.org/ 3. http://h30400.www3.hp.com/ 4. “The Beta Male’s Charms,” The New York Times, 7 February 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/07/fashion/07girlfriends.html?_r=1&sq=beta%20male&st=nyt&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin& scp=1&adxnnlx=1202761231-gS60wksKVomfwy55VHym8g 5. See youTube video at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uf9aE3Toepo&feature=related 6. “youTube effect felt beyond debates,” CNN.com, 27 November 2007, http://www.cnn.com/2007/PoLITICS/11/26/youtube.debate/index.html. See video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r90z0PMnKwI 7. “Thumbs Race as Japan’s Best Sellers Go Cellular,” The New York Times, 20 January 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/20/world/asia/20japan.html 8. “Six Leaps of Innovation — Kelly Rodriques and Paul Schiff, Blowtorch,” Fortune, 27 December 2007. http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/fortune/0712/gallery.sixleaps.fortune/6.html 9. “Blowtorch Ignites a New Model to Entertain, Engage and Connect young Adults,” Blowtorch press release, 16 November 2007. http://www.allbusiness.com/media-telecommunications/movies-sound-recording/5308344-1.html 10. “Up next: Cameras that know who you photographed,” CNET News.com, 14 November 2007. http://www.news.com/8301-13580_3-9816371-39.html 11. “Netflix Partners With LG to Bring Movies Straight to TV,” The New York Times, 3 January 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/03/technology/03netflix.html?em&ex=1199509200&en=e9881b82c236e3fb&ei=5087%0A 12. Ibid. 13. “TiVo, youTube to deliver videos to TVs,” MSNBC.com, 12 March 2008. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23599036/ 14. “youTube Coming to TV, With TiVo the Gateway,” The New York Times, 13 March 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/13/technology/13tivo.html 15. “In CBS Test, Mobile Ads Find Users,” The New York Times, 6 February 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/06/technology/06mobile.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin 16. yuMe Ad Gallery, http://www.yume.com/ad_gallery/gallery.html 17. “Download This: ‘Dynamic’ Downloadable Advertising is Going to Be Big in 2008,” Beet.TV, 26 December 2007. http://www.beet.tv/2007/12/download-this-d.html 18. Ibid. 82
  • 85. L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU M DIGTAL DISRUPTIoNS notes 19. See video under i3media, http://www.activamultimedia.com/am/v_portal/apartados/pl_basica.php?te=157&idm=151 20. “Behold Hulu, Hollywood’s answer to youTube,” Fortune, 29 october 2007. http://bigtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2007/10/29/behold-hulu-hollywoods-answer-to-youtube/ 21. “Who Won the Writers Strike?,” The New York Times, 12 February 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/12/arts/television/12strike.html?ref=arts; and Writers Guild of America Contract 2007 Proposals, http://www.wga.org/subpage_member.aspx?id=2485 22. “Virtual World Population: 50 million by 2011,” GigaOM, 20 May 2007. http://gigaom.com/2007/05/20/virtual-world-population-50-million-by-2011/ 23. “Second Earth,” Technology Review, July/August 2007. http://www.technologyreview.com/printer_friendly_article.aspx?id=18911 24. An example of hosting a conference in Second Life is at https://veodia.com/blog.html (see 28 September 2007 blog entry). 25. Second Life Grid examples, http://secondlifegrid.net/how/research_and_concept_testing, http://secondlifegrid.net/how/simulation_and_prototyping 26. “Missing girl hunt hits cyber world,” CNN.com, 12 June 2007. http://www.cnn.com/2007/WoRLD/europe/06/12/mccann.virtual/index.html 27. “IBM and Linden Lab Launch Collaboration to Further Advance the 3D Internet,” press release, 10 october 2007. http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/22428.wss 28. “Qwaq, Intel Collaborate on Enhanced Virtual Workspace Product,” press release, 20 September 2007. http://www.qwaq.com/company/press_releases/pr-2007_09_20.php 29. SAM Audiovisual Weather Services, http://www.activamultimedia.com/am/v_portal/apartados/pl_productos.php?te=193&idm=151 For insight into the complex Pinocchio-like process of creating Sam, see http://www.meteosam.com/eng/index.php. Click on “His secrets” for a cool and informative video. 30. “Full-on Rock Band Makes Jamming Follow-Up to Guitar Hero,” Wired, 14 September 2007. http://www.wired.com/print/gaming/gamingreviews/magazine/15-10/mf_harmonix 31. “Grand Slam tennis that’s out of this world,” The Sydney Morning Herald, 12 January 2007. http://www.smh.com.au/news/biztech/what-a-racquet/2007/01/12/1168105128562.html 32. “Vehicle operations simulator with augmented reality,” U.S. Patent 7246050, 16 June 2006. http://www.freepatentsonline.com/7246050.html 33. Jay David Bolter and Blair MacIntyre, “Is It Live or Is It AR?”, IEEE Spectrum, August 2007. http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/aug07/5377 34. “Vets pay tribute to fallen comrades at virtual Vietnam wall,” CNN.com, 1 April 2008. http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/04/01/vietnam.wall/index.html 83
  • 86. DIGTAL DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M notes 35. “Iraqi Checkpoint training using virtual humans to learn cultural gestures,” X3D case study, Web3D Consortium. http://www.web3d.org/casestudies/detail/iraqi-checkpoint-training-using-virtual-humans-to-learn-cultural-gestures/ 36. Peter L. Freddolino, Anton S. Arkhipov, Steven B. Larson, Alexander McPherson and Klaus Schulten, “Molecular dynamics simulations of the complete satellite tobacco mosaic virus,” Structure, 14 March 2006, pp. 437-449. 37. A good paper on telepresence is the Human Productivity Lab’s “Telepresence, Effective Visual Collaboration and the Future of Global Business at the Speed of Light,” by Howard S. Lichtman, August 2006. http://www.humanproductivitylab.com/telepresencepaper/index.php 38. HeadThere, http://www.headthere.com/applications.html#Telecommuting 39. “If the Mirror Could Talk (It Can),” The New York Times, 18 March 2007. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/18/fashion/18mirror.html 40. Jane McGonigal, Ph.D., “Superheroes 2.0,” presentation at TTI/Vanguard, Barcelona, Spain, 17 July 2007, pp. 3-5, 7. 41. Jane McGonigal, Ph.D., “Alternate Realities: A Game Designer’s Perspective on the Future of Happiness,” presentation at TTI/Vanguard, Barcelona, Spain, 17 July 2007, p. 14. 42. “Tell me the future,” The Guardian, 3 December 2007. http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2007/dec/03/mondaymediasection.internet 43. “open Social: a new universe of social applications all over the web,” Marc Andreessen Blog, 31 october 2007. http://blog.pmarca.com/2007/10/open-social-a-n.html 44. “The New openSocial — Now a Little Less Googley,” Good Morning Silicon Valley, 25 March 2008. 45. “Microsoft Partners With Social Networks To Improve Data Portability,” Online Media Daily, 26 March 2008. http://publications.mediapost.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=Articles.san&s=79248&Nid=40828&p=913539 46. Rob Cross, Roger Martin and Leigh Weiss, “The Ties that Bind: Driving Financial Return through Networks,” Network Roundtable at the University of Virginia white paper, 2007, p. 8. 47. “NewsGator Delivers Corporate Social Computing Platform for Universal McCann,” press release, 9 June 2008. http://www.newsgator.com/CompanyInfo/Press/Archive.aspx?post=158 48. “one Small Step for Socialcast, one Giant Leap for Enterprise Social Networking,” InformationWeek, Startup City Blog, 9 May 2008. http://www.informationweek.com/blog/main/archives/2008/05/one_small_step_2.html 49. This idea of using social tools for enterprise knowledge management is put forth in “Next Generation Knowledge Management with Web 2.0,” a CSC Technology Grant paper by Pablo Bermejo García, February 2008. http://www.csc.com/aboutus/leadingedgeforum/mds/mds435/843.shtml 50. “Google Maps and Twitter are Essential Information Resources for California Fires,” InformationWeek’s Digital Life Weblog, 24 october 2007. http://www.informationweek.com/blog/main/archives/2007/10/google_maps_and.html 84
  • 87. L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU M DIGTAL DISRUPTIoNS notes 51. “The Red Shift Theory,” InformationWeek, 18 August 2007, p. 2. http://www.informationweek.com/hardware/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=4CICMFIHIMSMoQSNDLRSKHSCJUNN2JVN? articleID=201800873&pgno=2&queryText= 52. “Live From SXSW: Zuckerberg Keynote Crumbles Into Chaos,” TechNewsWorld, 10 March 2008. http://www.technewsworld.com/story/Live-From-SXSW-Zuckerberg-Keynote-Crumbles-Into-Chaos-62044.html. An interesting analysis showing tweets integrated into a video of the keynote is at http://www.marrowbones.com/commons/technosocial/2008/03/anatomy_of_a_mob_the_lacyzucke.html 53. “Twittering Journalist offers Wisdom To Advertising Flacks,” online Spin Blog, 7 March 2008. http://blogs.mediapost.com/spin/?p=1250 54. “Campaign Reporting in Under 140 Taps,” The New York Times, 21 January 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/21/technology/21link.html?_r=1&oref=slogin 55. “Alternative lending sites often have good deals,” USA Today, 25 December 2007. http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/credit/2007-12-25-peerlending-pers_N.htm 56. “Virgin Money Web Site Launches With CSC,” CSC case study, 2007, http://www.csc.com/solutions/hostingservices/casestudies/5250.shtml?ref=hp_thumb In addition to the United States, Virgin Money operates sites for the United Kingdom, Australia and South Africa. 57. “Alternative lending sites often have good deals,” USA Today, 25 December 2007. http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/credit/2007-12-25-peerlending-pers_N.htm 58. WoMMA Buyers Guide — Keller Fay Group, http://buyers.womma.org/companies/keller-fay-group/; and “Brad Fay, Co-Founder Keller Fay Group, Wins ARF’s Prestigious ‘Grand Innovation Award,’” press release, 13 April 2007, http://kellerfay.com/news/News%20Release%20-%20ARF%20Award.pdf 59. “New PQ Media Forecast: Word-of-Mouth Marketing Spending To Break $1 Billion in 2007,” press release, 15 November 2007. http://www.prwebdirect.com/releases/2007/11/prweb569807.htm 60. “Top 10 US Social-Network and Blog-Site Rankings Issued for March [2008],” MarketingCharts, http://www.marketingcharts.com/interactive/top-10-us-social-network-and-blog-site-rankings-issued-for-march-4289/ nielsen-online-top-10-social-networking-sites-us-march-2008jpg/ 61. “FoX Sports, MySpace & NFL to create online destination for SB XLII ads,” FoX Sports, 24 May 2007. http://msn.foxsports.com/other/story/6843838 62. “New PQ Media Forecast: Word-of-Mouth Marketing Spending To Break $1 Billion in 2007,” press release, 15 November 2007. http://www.prwebdirect.com/releases/2007/11/prweb569807.htm 63. “Digital Restrictions Management Hits a Snag: Digg Users Stand Up for Fair Use,” 3 May 2007, http://www.saschameinrath.com/blog_tags/drm 64. Social Contract (Rousseau), http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Social_Contract 65. “Stolen Laptop Helps Turn Tables on Suspects,” The New York Times, 10 May 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/10/nyregion/10laptop.html?_r=1&oref=slogin 85
  • 88. DIGTAL DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M notes 66. “Medtronic Launches New Guardian Real-Time System with Miniature Transmitter and Carelink Personal Software,” press release, 19 March 2007. http://wwwp.medtronic.com/Newsroom/NewsReleaseDetails.do?itemId=1174306815850&lang=en_US 67. “Google Caves to Pentagon Wishes,” InformationWeek’s Google Weblog, 7 March 2008. http://www.informationweek.com/blog/main/archives/2008/03/google_caves_to.html 68. InfoWorld Futures Project Interview with Paul Saffo, 1997, http://www.saffo.com/aboutps/interviews/infoworld.php 69. “Insurance Fears Lead Many to Shun DNA Tests,” The New York Times, 24 February 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/24/health/24dna.html?_r=1&oref=slogin 70. “you Are What you Post,” BusinessWeek, 27 March 2006. http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_13/b3977071.htm 71. “Technology and the tired trucker: Why the trucking industry resists onboard recorders,” Computerworld, 17 March 2008. http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=313196 72. “CSC Launches New Location Awareness Solution at the 2008 Amgen Tour of California,” press release, 12 February 2008. http://www.csc.com/newsandevents/news/12529.shtml 73. David Robinson, Harlan yu, William P. Zeller and Edward W. Felten, “Government Data and the Invisible Hand,” draft, to appear in final form in the Yale Journal of Law and Technology, Volume 11, Fall 2008, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1138083; and “Study says Uncle Sam should get out of Web publishing business,” Computerworld, 5 June 2008, http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9093938&source=NLT_PM&nlid=8 74. See the “Who’s emitting mercury?” map at http://www.usatoday.com/news/mercury-emitter-map.htm 75. See video and additional information at http://www.epa.gov/nationaldialogue/index.html 76. Linda T. Kohn, Janet M. Corrigan and Molla S. Donaldson, Editors, Committee on Quality of Health Care in America, Institute of Medicine, To Err Is Human: Building a Safer Health System (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 2000), Executive Summary, p. 1. http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=9728&page=1 77. “Health Care Costs 101, 2008 Edition” California Healthcare Foundation, slide 3. Data based on projections from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), office of the Actuary. 78. “Visualizing Electronic Health Records With ‘Google-Earth for the Body,’” IEEE Spectrum, January 2008. http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/jan08/5854 79. “Health Care’s New Dimension,” Virginia Business online, September 2000. http://www.gatewayva.com/biz/virginiabusiness/magazine/yr2000/sep00/lynch.html 80. “Voters Care About Information Technology in Healthcare, CSC Survey Finds,” February 2008. http://www.csc.com/government/ds/11250-health_it_voter_survey?ref=lsl 81. Larry Dignan, “Mashup Ecosystem Poised to Explode,” blog post, 27 January 2006. http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=2484 86
  • 89. L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU M DIGTAL DISRUPTIoNS notes 82. http://www.mashupfeed.com/ Data as of 26 August 2008. 83. Transparent Real Estate, http://transparentre.com/2007/01/02/new-ideas-for-2007.aspx 84. http://mashmaker.intel.com 85. http://www.mapbuilder.net/ 86. http://googlemashupeditor.blogspot.com/ 87. Richard Feynman explains in this brief video: http://www.cnbc.cmu.edu/~masmith/media/feynman_long.mov 88. Dwight A. Johnson, “The Radio Legacy of the R.M.S. Titanic,” 28 December 1998, http://www.avsia.com/djohnson/titanic.html 89. “700 MHz Explained in 10 Steps,” GigaOM, 14 March 2007. http://gigaom.com/2007/03/14/700mhz-explained/ 90. “700 MHz to be LTE heavy,” RCR Wireless, 4 April 2008. http://www.rcrnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080404/SUB/581566019 91. Ibid. 92. Ibid. 93. “700 MHz Explained in 10 Steps,” GigaoM, 14 March 2007, http://gigaom.com/2007/03/14/700mhz-explained/; and “Sprint hints at cutback on ambitious nationwide WiMax rollout ,” InfoWorld, 12 November 2007, http://www.infoworld.com/article/07/11/12/Sprint-hints-at-cutback-on-ambitious-nationwide-WiMax-rollout_1.html (WiMAX estimate). 94. “TV White Space Holds the Key for Broadband Wireless Internet Access for Millions of People Still Living without Broadband,” FireceWireless, 13 December 2007. http://www.fiercewireless.com/press-releases/tv-white-space-holds-key-broadband-wireless-internet-access-millions- people-still-liv?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal 95. “Google Plan Would open TV Band for Wireless Use,” The New York Times, 25 March 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/25/business/media/25google.html 96. “Internet-a-Gogo: Airlines to offer In-Flight Access,” The Wall Street Journal, 19 June 2008. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121382851874286403.html (Subscription required). Also at: http://webreprints.djreprints.com/1972500433907.html 97. “FMC market forecast to top $46B in 2010, FMC subscribers to top 38M; UMA here to stay, says new Infonetics report,” press release, 4 october 2007, http://www.infonetics.com/cgp/b-a.asp?sID=66 (Registration required.) 98. “Infonetics Research: T-Mobile USA, orange heat up FMC infrastructure market; FMC phones hit $27B in 2007,” press release, 11 April 2008, http://www.infonetics.com/cgp/b-a.asp?sID=66 (Registration required.) 99. “Alaska Airlines Working With Row 44 To Launch Inflight Wireless Internet Service,” press release, 18 September 2007. http://www.alaskasworld.com/Newsroom/ASNews/ASstories/AS_20070918_080507.asp 87
  • 90. DIGTAL DIsrupTIons LEA DI nG EDGE Foru M Notes 100. Emirates, http://www.emirates.com/us/english/flying/staying_connected/staying_connected.aspx, Qantas, http://www.qantas.com.au/info/flying/inTheAir/communications. Also see “WiFi in the sky: Airlines prepare Cabin Hotspots,” The Wall Street Journal, 3 April 2007, http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/sB117555160709857409.html (subscription required.) 101. “Mobile WiMAX to reach 80m subscribers within 5 Years, Assuming Device Availability and Differentiated services, According to Juniper research,” press release, 11 December 2007. http://www.emediawire.com/releases/2007/12/emw575540.htm 102. see the latest WiMAX deployments at http://www.wimax.com/commentary/blog/blog-2008/where-in-the-world-are-wimax-networks 103. “Intel Looks to 2008 for WiMax push,” eWeek, 1 August 2007. http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1895,2165070,00.asp 104. “Tech Firms to Build WiMax network in u.s.,” The Wall Street Journal, 8 May 2008. http://online.wsj.com/article/sB121015567027273579.html (subscription required.) 105. “nextWave signs on Alcatel-Lucent for WiMAX TV,” FierceBroadbandWireless, 13 March 2008. http://www.fiercebroadbandwireless.com/story/nextwave-signs-on-alcatel-lucent-for-wimax-tv/2008-03-13?utm_ medium=nl&utm_source=link 106. In-stat data as reported in http://www.cellular-news.com/story/28029.php 107. “Israeli company develops radar system that sees through walls,” Haaretz.com, 11 June 2008. http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/991793.html This paragraph is developed from this article. 108. Adrew Lippman and David p. reed, “Viral Communications,” MIT Media Laboratory white paper, 19 May 2003. 109. Gnu radio, http://gnuradio.org/trac/wiki; and Gnu radio suggested reading, http://gnuradio.org/trac/wiki/suggestedreading 110. “radios Get smart,” IEEE Spectrum, 1 February 2007, p. 4. http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/feb07/4892 111. Ibid. 112. Joint Tactical radio system, problems and restructuring, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JTrs#problems_and_restructuring 113. “Connected World: redefining the Geography of Business and How We Work and play,” CsC Leading Edge Forum, september 2006, p. 24. http://www.csc.com/aboutus/leadingedgeforum/knowledgelibrary/uploads/1139_1.pdf 114. “Boeing Begins production of Joint Tactical radio system Ground Mobile radios Engineering Models,” press release, 8 January 2008. http://www.boeing.com/news/releases/2008/q1/080108a_nr.html 115. “Connected World,” p. 24. http://www.csc.com/aboutus/leadingedgeforum/knowledgelibrary/uploads/1139_1.pdf 116. “Thales Announces Liberty: The First Multiband software Defined Land Mobile radio — All Bands, All Modes, Full Encryption in one radio,” press release, 26 March 2008. https://secure.thalescomminc.com/newsroom_details.asp?ID=321 117. The term “on orbit” is common in the space community. It is used to distinguish from a spacecraft that is in a lab, in a test facility, on the launch pad, or in its ascent phase. It also implies that the spacecraft is in the correct orbit, not just any orbit. 88
  • 91. L E A D In G E D G E Fo ru M DIGTAL DIsrupTIons Notes 118. Edward Criscuolo, “software Defined radio,” CsC Technology Grant, november 2007. http://www.csc.com/aboutus/leadingedgeforum/mds/mds435/843.shtml 119. Lippman and reed, “Viral Communications,” p. 5. 120. “share and share Alike,” Wi-Fi Planet News, 9 october 2007. http://www.wi-fiplanet.com/news/article.php/3704146 121. “Global Dreams for a Wireless Web,” The New York Times, 25 May 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/25/technology/25web.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1 122. Lippman and reed, “Viral Communications,” p. 1. 123. “Connected World,” pp. 67-81. http://www.csc.com/aboutus/leadingedgeforum/knowledgelibrary/uploads/1139_1.pdf 124. “paper Is out, Cellphones Are In,” The New York Times, 18 March 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/18/technology/18check.html?_r=1&oref=slogin 125. “Connected World,” p. 26. http://www.csc.com/aboutus/leadingedgeforum/knowledgelibrary/uploads/1139_1.pdf 126. nanoCELL, http://www.rivanetworks.com/nano/nano.htm 127. Lawrence Lessig, The Future of Ideas: The Fate of the Commons in a Connected World (new York: random House, 2001), p. 21. 128. “self-service, prorated supercomputing Fun!,” open — All the Code That’s Fit to print, new York Times Blog, 1 november 2007. http://open.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/11/01/self-service-prorated-super-computing-fun/?scp=1-b&sq=prorated+ supercomputing+fun&st=nyt 129. “Times to stop Charging for parts of Its Web site,” The New York Times, 18 september 2007. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/18/business/media/18times.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin 130. “The new York Times Archives + Amazon Web services = TimesMachine,” open — All the Code That’s Fit to print, new York Times Blog, 21 May 2008. http://open.blogs.nytimes.com/tag/s3/ 131. “Cisco unveils nexus 7000 series Data Center-Class platform,” press release, 28 January 2008. http://newsroom.cisco.com/dlls/2008/prod_012808b.html 132. “Cisco’s new Data Center plan Looks promising. What Will IBM Think?,” BusinessWeek Tech Beat Blog, 28 January 2008. http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/techbeat/archives/2008/01/ciscos_new_data.html 133. Cherrypal, http://cherrypal.com/ 134. “Coming soon, to Any Flat surface near You,” The New York Times, 30 March 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/30/business/30novelties.html 135. “unlock the big screen experience from small devices,” Microvision, http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/embedded.html 89
  • 92. DIGTAL DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M notes 136. “The future of computers,” Hewlett-Packard, http://h71028.www7.hp.com/eNewsletter/cache/599441-0-0-225-121.html?jumpid=em_di_384564_US_US_0_000&diaid= di_hpc_us_637441_US&dimid=1008769118&dicid=taw_July08&mrm=1-4BVUP This paragraph is developed from this article. 137. “Industry Giants Try to Break Computing’s Dead End,” The New York Times, 19 March 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/19/technology/19compute.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper&oref=slogin 138. “Intel shows off 80-core processor,” ZDNet News, 11 February 2007. http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9584_22-6158181.html 139. “Industry Giants Try to Break Computing’s Dead End,” The New York Times, 19 March 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/19/technology/19compute.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper&oref=slogin 140. “Apple in Parallel: Turning the PC World Upside Down?,” The New York Times, 10 June 2008. http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/10/apple-in-parallel-turning-the-pc-world-upside-down/ 141. “Inside Intel Larrabee,” eWeek, 7 August 2008. http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Infrastructure/Inside-Intel-Larrabee/ 142. “First Details on a Future Intel Design Codenamed ‘Larrabee,’” press release, 4 August 2008. http://www.intel.com/pressroom/archive/releases/20080804fact.htm?iid=SEARCH 143. “Intel Details Larrabee Processor Architecture,” eWeek, 4 August 2008. http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Desktops-and- Notebooks/Intel-Details-Larrabee-Processor-Architecture/?kc=EWKNLENT08082008STR1 144. “Apple in Parallel: Turning the PC World Upside Down?,” The New York Times, 10 June 2008. http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/10/apple-in-parallel-turning-the-pc-world-upside-down/ 145. “Apple Previews Mac oS X Snow Leopard to Developers,” press release, 9 June 2008. http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2008/06/09snowleopard.html 146. “How big (or small) is a nanometer?,” http://www.egr.msu.edu/~mackay/nanometer/nanometer.htm 147. “Researchers develop combat helmet with smart nanotechnology sensors,” NanoWerk News, 7 March 2008. http://www.nanowerk.com/news/newsid=4866.php 148. “Fiber-based Nanotechnology Could Power Electronic Devices,” press release, 13 February 2008. http://www.gatech.edu/newsroom/release.html?id=1715 149. Ibid. 150. “Beam It Down from the Web, Scotty,” The New York Times, 7 May 2007. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/07/technology/07copy.html?_r=2&scp=1&sq=3D+printing&st=nyt&oref=slogin&oref=slogin 151. See Z Corporation’s video for the ZPrinter 450 under Spotlight at: http://www.zcorp.com/ 152. “Productive Nanosystems: A Technology Roadmap,” Sponsored by the Foresight Nanotech Institute, Battelle, the Waitt Family Foundation, Sun Microsystems and Zyvex Labs, 2007, Executive Summary, p. xiii. http://www.foresight.org/roadmaps/Nanotech_Roadmap_2007_main.pdf 153. J. Storrs Hall, Nanofuture: What’s Next for Nanotechnology (New york: Prometheus Books, 2005), p. 26. 90
  • 93. L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU M DIGTAL DISRUPTIoNS notes 154. “How DNA Computers Will Work,” http://computer.howstuffworks.com/dna-computer.htm 155. USC Laboratory for Molecular Science, http://www.usc.edu/dept/molecular-science/ (Click on DNA Computing.) 156. “Computer Made from DNA and Enzymes,” National Geographic News, 24 February 2003. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/pf/37540047.html 157. “Molecular Computer Developed To Perform Calculations From Within Human Body,” Medindia.com, 25 February 2006. http://www.medindia.net/news/view_news_main.asp?x=8108 158. “Computer Made from DNA and Enzymes,” National Geographic News, 24 February 2003. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/pf/37540047.html This paragraph is developed from this article. 159. “How DNA Computers Will Work,” http://computer.howstuffworks.com/dna-computer2.htm 160. “Chemists Report Important Step Toward Building Molecular Computers,” ScienceDaily, 25 January 2007, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/01/070124175450.htm; and “A New Type of Molecular Switch,” Technology Review, 4 September 2007, http://www.technologyreview.com/Nanotech/19329/?a=f 161. “What Is Quantum?”, The Mitre Digest, February 2008. 162. “Speed-of-light computing comes a step closer,” New Scientist, 18 July 2007. http://technology.newscientist.com/channel/tech/mg19526136.400-speedoflight-computing-comes-a-step-closer.html 163. “IBM Unveils a Prototype Green optical Network Technology for Sharing Huge Files in Seconds,” press release, 28 February 2008. http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/23607.wss 164. “Replacing Wire With Laser, Sun Tries to Speed Up Data,” The New York Times, 24 March 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/24/technology/24wafer.html?_r=1&oref=slogin This paragraph is developed from this article. 165. Ibid. 166. Ray Kurzweil, “The Law of Accelerating Returns,” http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0134.html? 167. “Semantic Wave 2008 Report: Industry Roadmap to Web 3.0 & Multibillion Dollar Market opportunities,” Project 10X, Executive Summary, February 2008, p. 10. 168. Ibid., p. 8. 169. Ibid., p. 20. 170. Ibid., p. 4. This paragraph is developed from this report. 171. Ibid., p. 3. 172. http://www.freebase.com/ 91
  • 94. DIGTAL DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M notes 173. “Case Study: PoPS — NASA’s Expertise Location Service Powered by Semantic Web Technologies,” W3C Case Study, February 2008. http://www.w3.org/2001/sw/sweo/public/UseCases/Nasa/ 174. Aaron Mannes and Jennifer Golbeck, “Building a Terrorism ontology,” http://www.mindswap.org/papers/Terrorontologyfinal.pdf 175. See Metatomix “Boiler Room” video at http://www.metatomix.com/knowledgecenter/boilerRoom.php 176. The Delaycast Engine, http://www.delaycast.com/about.html 177. “ValueClick To Launch Predictive Behavioral Targeting,” MediaPost Publications, 21 July 2008. http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.san&s=86905&Nid=45235&p=913539 178. “Moving Mountains With the Brain, Not a Joystick,” The New York Times, 8 June 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/08/technology/08novel.html. See Emotiv Systems at http://emotiv.com 179. William E. Halal, “A First for Thought Power,” TechCast, 3 February 2008. http://www.techcast.org/Commentary.aspx?ID=139 180. “Brain Scanner Can Tell What you’re Looking At,” Wired, 5 March 2008. http://www.wired.com/print/science/discoveries/news/2008/03/mri_vision 181. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain_fingerprinting 182. “The Protein Folding Problem,” http://www.ram.org/research/pfp.html 183. yochai Benkler, The Wealth of Networks (New Haven and London: yale University Press, 2006), p. 1. 184. Ibid., p. 2. 185. W. Brian Arthur, “Why Tech Is Still The Future,” Fortune, 24 November 2003. http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2003/11/24/353778/index.htm 186. W. Brian Arthur, “Is the Information Revolution Dead?,” March 2002, pp. 5 and 6. http://www.ebusinessforum.gr/old/content/downloads/IstheInformationRevolutionDead.pdf 187. Ibid., p. 5. 92
  • 95. DIGITAL G E D G E Fo RU M L E A D IN DISRUPTIoNS LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M DIGTAL DISRUPTIoNS aCknoWleDgMents Alex Fuss conducted the research for this LEF report as the 2008 LEF Associate. A seasoned technologist with over 25 years of domestic and international experience, Alex specializes in researching and leveraging leading edge technologies to build enterprise architectures for innovative products and services, primarily in the financial services industry. As a director of technology he has led many technology and technology governance client engagements. He presents frequently at conferences and is currently co-authoring a book, Real-World SOA, to be published by Sys-Con Media. Working on Digital Disruptions has deepened Alex’s appreciation for the accelerated speed of innovation and the unprecedented impact it promises to have on all aspects of our lives. The fantastic technology advances in computing platforms and wireless communication are laying the groundwork for new media, virtual worlds, social networks and better information transparency, all of which will change how we do business. The end result is a smarter world, with machines aiding humans like never before. Alex feels smarter already, having worked on Digital Disruptions with countless experts and luminaries forging our digital world. With his LEF assignment complete, Alex has returned to CSC’s Financial Services Sector (FSS) office of the CTo, where he is helping shape FSS’s open source software strategy. Alex received a B.A. in computer science and philosophy from Columbia University and is a PMI-certified project manager. He resides in New york City. afuss@csc.com The LEF thanks the many others who contributed to the Digital Disruptions report. Special thanks to Lisa Braun, senior writer, for bringing the ideas together. Anisha Ahluwalia, Denuo Group Josh Hawkins, Brightcove Michael osias, IBM Brian Arthur, Santa Fe Institute Gregory Hilton, ICE Innovative Technologies Maniam Palanivelu, Nortel Jeff Barr, Amazon.com Jeanne Holm, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Jon Pilkington, Metatomix Michael Berman, Art Center College of Design Jeff Holmes, CSC Brian Ralphs, BP Adam Berrey, Brightcove J.B. Holston, NewsGator Technologies David P. Reed, MIT Media Lab Jay Bolter, Georgia Institute of Technology Holly Huntley, CSC Ashley Roach, NewsGator Technologies Daniel Bongers, CRCMining Australia Jan C.J. Jones, Forest Rose Productions Patrick Sautin, CSC Liesl Capper, MyCyberTwin Peter Knights, University of Queensland Harriet Schabes, Ishto Ed Criscuolo, CSC Bill Koff, CSC Paul Schuepp, Animetrics Rob Cross, University of Virginia Paul Lever, University of Queensland Kenneth Senne, MIT Lincoln Laboratory Corre Curtice, CSC Todd Lucas, CSC Nati Shalom, GigaSpaces Steve D’Angelo, Spring Lake Technologies Ed Luczak, CSC Ehud Shapiro, Weizmann Institute of Science Anil Dash, Six Apart Ben Machin, CSC Paul Shen, TVU networks Mills Davis, Project10X Blair MacIntyre, Georgia Institute of Technology Jonathan Silverman, D-Wave Systems Jean Delahousse, Mondeca Dan Malks, JackBe Tomas Soderstrom, Kobus Du Plessis, CSC Richard Mandelbaum, Xynetics Group NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Rajiv Dulepet, WiseWindow Steve Mann, University of Toronto Gary Spangler, DuPont Travis Durick, PePWave Neil Martin, formerly D-Wave Systems, Peter Steinlauf, Edmunds Phil Edholm, Nortel now MetaRAM Walter Steinlin, Swisscom Dan Foltz, CSC Eric Miller, Zepheira Simon Stokes, CSC Dennis Franklin, CSC Michael I. Miller, Animetrics Marcin Strzalkowski, InteliWISE Scott Fraser, Regina Moldovan, Nortel John Taylor, Educational Testing Service U.S. Environmental Protection Agency David Moschella, CSC Robert Wah, CSC David Gilmour, Tacit Software Dan Munyan, CSC Chris Warner, JackBe Michael Greene, CSCS Douglas Neal, CSC Helen Payne Watt, Virgin Money Paul Gustafson, CSC Debra o’Grady, CSC Carl Wu, CSC NIls Magnus Haldorsen, CSC Uche ogbuji, Zepheira John Zakos, MyCyberTwin 93
  • 96. Worldwide CSC Headquarters The Americas 3170 Fairview Park Drive Falls Church, Virginia 22042 United States +1.703.876.1000 Europe, Middle East, Africa The Royal Pavilion Wellesley Road Aldershot, Hampshire GU11 1PZ United Kingdom +44(0)1252.534000 Australia 26 Talavera Road Macquarie Park, NSW 2113 Australia +61(0)29034.3000 Asia 139 Cecil Street #06-00 Cecil House Singapore 069539 Republic of Singapore +65.6221.9095 About CSC The mission of CSC is to be a global leader in providing tehnology enabled business solutions and services. With the broadest range of capabilities, CSC offers clients the solutions they need to manage complexity, focus on core businesses, collaborate with partners and clients, and improve operations. CSC makes a special point of understanding its clients and provides experts with real-world experience to work with them. CSC is vendor-independent, delivering solutions that best meet each client’s unique requirements. For more than 50 years, clients in industries and governments worldwide have trusted CSC with their business process and information systems outsourcing, systems integration and consulting needs. The company trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “CSC.” Copyright © 2008 Computer Sciences Corporation. All rights reserved. Printed in USA. 10/08 WH714