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Handbook of the Knowledge Society Foresight
 

Handbook of the Knowledge Society Foresight

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Available at the EUFORIA Web Site, PREST

Available at the EUFORIA Web Site, PREST
http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/euforia/presentations.htm

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    Handbook of the Knowledge Society Foresight Handbook of the Knowledge Society Foresight Presentation Transcript

    •  
    • European Knowledge Society Foresight - a Handbook of Methodology November 2002 PREST and FFRC for the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions
    • Towards a Handbook for KSF
        •  Explaining what the issues are - relating Knowledge Society to Living and Working Conditions and Industrial Relations - why and how Foresight can be helpful in addressing them
        •  Clarifying the semantic confusion and practical differences about Foresight, Forecasting, Futures, etc. KS Foresight - beyond TF
        •  Outlining Key decisions to be taken.
        •  Explicating Methods for Organising, Managing, Conducting, and Using Foresight
    • Mostly Q&A based
      • Drawing on experience of FOREN/ Practical Guide
      • Annexes provide more detailed discussion, lists of sources, etc.
      • Case studies inserted in text as “boxes” describing particular examples of practice that may inspire or provide lessons.
      • Web-based resource providing large number of links and commentary.
    • Foresight as a Process Renewal Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action
    • Foresight as a Process: methods Experts Panels Intelligence Gathering Knowledge Fusing Visioning Targeting Synthesis Dissemination Implementation Stakeholders Scoping Renewal PreForesight Recruitment Generation Action Monitoring Management Evaluation
    • Handbook Structure
        • Introductory chapters - Handbook structure and mission; Knowledge Society and Foresight
        • Chapter 3 - preparing for Knowledge Society Foresight (KSF) - major decisions and approaches.
        • Chapter 4 - forecasting methods, both expert and statistical /mathematical approaches.
        • Chapter 5 - broader approaches to generating strategic intelligence - panels, expert groups and workshops.
        • Chapter 6 - Multiple Scenario Analysis and Scenario Workshops.
        • Chapter 7 - outputs and deliverables from KSF into decision-making.
        • Chapter 8 - evaluating and institutionalising KSF; chapter 9 - concluding remarks.
    • Key Arguments:
      • KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY: Slippery concept,but does point to trends with major implication for Living and Working Conditions(Services, ICT and Infosoc, learning organisations, innovation, globalisation, etc.)
      • FORESIGHT: Relevant Approach for Knowledge Society; combines elements of futures, policy analysis, networking; family of approaches and tools rather than one single method; choice very much bound to purposes (e.g. technocratic vs democratic; focus of analysis and action)
      • METHODOLOGY: Need to open the “black box”, demystify the craft; focus on more than just forecasting methods, including the dynamics and process of conducting Foresight - managing, planning, participation, using
    • Foresight’s triple base Fore-sight Futures Plan-ning Network-ing Foresight Informing and legitimising action, establishing preparedness Sharing visions. Exchanging knowledge, mutual understanding... Identifying indicators and determining goals, evaluation processes and mechanisms Strategic action plans Planning tools and techniques, priority setting, etc. Futures reports, scenarios, forecasts and visions Futures methods, forecasting techniques, modelling & visionary approaches, etc. Broadening participation, establishing and reinforcing networks Networking tools and techniques, groupwork and facilitation, survey approaches, etc.
    • MAIN METHODS AND ISSUES
          • BACKGROUND MATERIAL
          • FORECASTING METHOD
          • GROUP AND WORKSHOP METHODS
          • NETWORKING METHODS
          • PLANNING METHODS
          • MANAGING FORESIGHT
          • Thus the handbook examines in its Q&A Frameowrk, and the EUForia website provides documentation and links to material on:
          • · SWOT analysis
      • · Benchmarking
      • · Issue Surveys
      • · Genius Forecasting
      • · Relevance Trees and Morphological Analysis
      • · Delphi Method
      • · Cross impact analysis
      • · Trend Extrapolation
      • · Simulation Modelling (Mathematical and Statistical Modelling)
      • · Expert Panels
      • · Brainstorming
      • · Mind mapping and Argument Analysis
      • · Scenarios And Scenario Analysis Workshops
      • · Simulation Gaming
      • etc
    • End of presentation