Foresight technology

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Presented in Valencia, 25 April 2008, the Technology Innovation International conference

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Foresight technology

  1. 1. Pursuing innovation: the foresight issues in Latvian universities Dr. Arturs Puga Forward Studies Unit (Riga, Latvia) From Regional Networking to International Partnerships in Technology Transfer and Innovation Support . TII 2008 Annual Conference , 23-25 April 200 8 , Valen c ia, Spain
  2. 2. From Regional Networking to International Partnerships in Technology Transfer and Innovation Support . TII 2008 Annual Conference , 23-25 April 200 8 , Valen c ia, Spain Outline and framework of the presentation I Foresight process (EU projects approach) as a kind of social technology III EU foresight technology transfer (TT) to Latvian S&T institutions and universities II LNELS project (2003-2008) – capabilities building for foresight activities at national and European level
  3. 3. From Regional Networking to International Partnerships in Technology Transfer and Innovation Support . TII 2008 Annual Conference , 23-25 April 200 8 , Valen c ia, Spain Foresight comprises methodologies, techniques, tools , and systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building processes aimed at enabling present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions. FOR-LEARN, EC, JRC-IPTS I Foresight process (EU projects approach) as a kind of social technology Above all else, foresight is a social technology Dr. Michael Keenan, PREST, University of Manchester, UK, UNIDO Technology Foresight Tr aining Programme, TF for Organizers, 2006 <ul><li>- action-oriented, open to alternative futures, participatory, multidisciplinary </li></ul><ul><li>tangible and intangible outcomes providing benefits to involved organizations / enterprises / individual participants </li></ul><ul><li>- for policy making, strategies and other business objectives, priority setting, innovation, education, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>- use in knowledge and human action domains aiming at thinking, debating and shaping the future. </li></ul>
  4. 4. From Regional Networking to International Partnerships in Technology Transfer and Innovation Support . TII 2008 Annual Conference , 23-25 April 200 8 , Valen c ia, Spain Successful technology transfer means that it is necessary to a broad view of &quot;Technology&quot; to mean not only machines and equipment, but also the skills, abilities, knowledge, systems and processes necessary to make things happen. Thus technologies are meant to be total systems that include know-how, procedures, goods and services, as well as organizational and operational measures. Dr. Hari Srinivas, The Global Development Research Center III EU foresight technology transfer (TT) to Latvian S&T institutions and universities II LNELS project (2003-2008) – capabilities building for foresight activities at national and European level
  5. 5. From Regional Networking to International Partnerships in Technology Transfer and Innovation Support . TII 2008 Annual Conference , 23-25 April 200 8 , Valen c ia, Spain A showcase of a Latvian foresight experience is grounded on the transdisciplinary knowledge work ; its processes, outcomes and lessons might be rethought, adapted / innovatively used for foresight related activities in both Latvia and other countries and regions III EU foresight technology transfer (TT) to Latvian S&T institutions and universities II LNELS project (2003-2008) – capabilities building for foresight activities at national and European level
  6. 6. EU context Policies Values Objectives RTD Practices Incentives The Lisbon strategy (2000-2010) Tranfer Methodologies Scientific publications Projects Guides Conferences Workshops Networks National context Organizational context (Council of Science Universities Academies Ministries RTD institutions (businesses) Communities Non-profit organizations) Adaptation processes Change and Innovation BARRIERS A receiver / user decides Latvia Foresight as an advanced social technology (F-AST)
  7. 7. Receivers and users of the EU foresight technology transfer Riga Technical University Banking Institution o f Higher Education University of Latvia Latvian Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences Latvian Union of Scientists Latvian Academy of Sciences Latvian Technological Center Forward Studies U nit Ministry of Agriculture, Latvian Academy of Sciences, Latvian Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences agreed on the cooperation within the Foresight network of specialists and practitioners 2007 Latvian Ministry of Agriculture Latvian Council of Science Towards Latvian Foresight Network: 2003-2008
  8. 8. Now, a main objective is to link gains of methodological studies and participation in EU foresight projects to entrepreneurial and innovative use of foresight in Latvian universities and SME’s <ul><li>Since 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>The Riga Technical University </li></ul><ul><li>research on the use of information technologies for foresight methods , developing the knowledge management systems for SME’s </li></ul><ul><li>The University of Latvia </li></ul><ul><li>studies and exercises </li></ul><ul><li>foresight and futures–oriented technology analysis for innovation and technology marketing </li></ul><ul><li>integration of technologies of natural sciences and foresight within the university research </li></ul><ul><li>foresight and S&T policy making </li></ul>Networks and collaboration in projects used by Latvian foresight specialists to participate in activities of the European Research / Foresight area and the global futures community The EC, DG RTD, and Joint Research Centre - IPTS supported initiatives EC, DG Enterprise and Industry, IRE The Millennium Project The European Foresight Monitoring Network SCAR Agricultural Foresight COST A22 Shaping Tomorrow Foresight Network, etc.
  9. 9. From Regional Networking to International Partnerships in Technology Transfer and Innovation Support . TII 2008 Annual Conference , 23-25 April 200 8 , Valen c ia, Spain A.Puga. A Latvian experience addressing issues of the foresight innovation. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 2007, Vol.3, No.4, pp. 369-387 About a project &quot;Latvia towards Knowledge Societies of Europe: new options for entrepreneurship and employment achieving the goals of the Lisbon Strategy“ 2003-2007 I Foresight process (EU projects approach) as a kind of social technology III EU foresight technology transfer (TT) to Latvian S&T institutions and universities II LNELS project (2003-2008) – capabilities building for foresight activities at national and European level
  10. 10. From Regional Networking to International Partnerships in Technology Transfer and Innovation Support . TII 2008 Annual Conference , 23-25 April 200 8 , Valen c ia, Spain The European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN) monitors ongoing and emerging foresight activities and disseminates information about these activities Global Foresight Outlook 2007 : Mapping Foresight in Europe and the rest of the World For the period of 2004-2007, talking to experts, assisted by correspondents, looking at existing reports, browsing the Internet, the data was collected from a total of 1650 foresight initiatives and projects Spain 43 Estonia 8 Latvia 5 Lithuania 1
  11. 11. <ul><li>Relevance Trees (2) </li></ul><ul><li>Morphological Analysis (4) </li></ul><ul><li>Gaming (4) </li></ul><ul><li>Bibliometrics (7) </li></ul><ul><li>Multi-criteria Analysis (11) </li></ul><ul><li>Cross-Impact Analysis (12) </li></ul><ul><li>Structural analysis (13) </li></ul><ul><li>Citizen Panels (28) </li></ul><ul><li>Stakeholder Mapping (30) </li></ul><ul><li>Backcasting (42) </li></ul><ul><li>Essays (50) </li></ul><ul><li>Modelling and simulation (52) </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental Scanning (69) </li></ul><ul><li>Technology Roadmapping (76) </li></ul><ul><li>SWOT Analysis (107) </li></ul><ul><li>Megatrend Analysis (110) </li></ul><ul><li>Key Technologies (120) </li></ul><ul><li>Delphi (120) </li></ul><ul><li>Questionnaire / Survey (121) </li></ul><ul><li>Interview s (127) </li></ul><ul><li>Trend Extrapolation (133) </li></ul><ul><li>Brainstorming (157) </li></ul><ul><li>Other methods (158) </li></ul><ul><li>Futures Workshops (195) </li></ul><ul><li>Scenarios (324) </li></ul><ul><li>Expert Panels (397) </li></ul><ul><li>Literature Review (437) </li></ul><ul><li>Mapping frequencies of use of m ethods </li></ul><ul><li>(Global Foresight Outlook 2007, EFMN) </li></ul>Expert Panels Structural A nalysis Literature Review Brainstorming Strategic Conversation Trend E xtrapolation Priority Setting Futures Workshops Delphi 10 of used methods in Latvian foresight exercises (2003-2007) Scenarios
  12. 12. From Regional Networking to International Partnerships in Technology Transfer and Innovation Support . TII 2008 Annual Conference , 23-25 April 200 8 , Valen c ia, Spain Undertake foresight when it’s possible to act on the results BARRIERS Sp r ead of foresight in universities CHALLENGES To accept new methodologies, new approaches and paradigms of collective learning and sharing knowledge, of analysing structures and understanding in-depth current processes – both focused research issues and context ( e.g., STEEPV domains - the country, Europe , and the world), engage in knowledge work using quantitative and qualitative methods to develop alternative futures , and search for consensus between different stakeholders making today's decisions to shape the future (mid- and long-term horizon)
  13. 13. EU Iron curtain Iron cage Unlike the transfer of physical objects, the transfer of social technologies asks individuals in the target location to follow what transferred technologies suggest. Dr. Masahiro Matsuura
  14. 14. From Regional Networking to International Partnerships in Technology Transfer and Innovation Support . TII 2008 Annual Conference , 23-25 April 200 8 , Valen c ia, Spain University of Latvia Education and learning for sustainable development To accept new methodologies, new approaches and paradigms of collective learning and sharing knowledge, of analysing structures and understanding in-depth current processes – both focused research issues and context (e.g., STEEPV domains - the country, Europe, and the world), engage in knowledge work using quantitative and qualitative methods to develop alternative futures, and search for consensus between different stakeholders making today's decisions to shape the future (mid- and long-term horizon) Sustainable development is an ethical challenge and a scientific concept UNESCO International partnership, using and integrating F – AST into innovative initiatives
  15. 15. Thanks ! [email_address]

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