Sebesta-Technologica..

David Sebesta Ethics Presentation Final Draft A Reflection in the Mirror: The Technological Singularity In a decision to establish the security of the country, the US Congress passes theSkynet Funding bill, allowing a revolutionary new artificial intelligence technology to beimplemented in a defense network capable of defending against all possible enemies.The system goes on-line August 4th, 1997 and begins learning at a geometric rate.Human decisions are removed from strategic defense. Skynet becomes self aware at 2:14a.m. Eastern time, August 29th. In a panic, they try to pull the plug. But Skynet fightsback. In the realization that the United States is Skynet’s own greatest enemy, it launchesall of the nuclear missiles under its control at Russia, knowing that the counter attack willeliminate the human resistance. Of course, this chain of events has not happened and you probably recognize thisas the storyline behind The Terminator series of movies. Although this is the work ofscience fiction, the underlying theme behind it is a very real concept that is of growinginterest to many involved in the advancement of technology. This concept is known asthe Technological Singularity. We look at our world today, at the use of things like

computers, the internet, and machines, and we find ourselves hard pressed to think thatwe could be anywhere near a point in which humanity is fighting off a race of killerrobots. This, however, is not enough to understand the Technological Singularityconcept. We must look at the advancement of our technology over time, where we havebeen, where we are going, and just how fast we are getting there. In this presentation Iwill describe what exactly the Technological Singularity is and discuss some of the keyplayers dealing with the issue. I will explain what people might expect to see at the dawnof a Singularity event and look at what we have done as a society that has us pointed inthat direction. Most importantly, we will gain a better understanding of why the conceptof the Technological Singularity is not just a figment of science fiction for many people.What is the Technological Singularity? An early definition was given in 1965 by British statistician and cryptographerIrving John Good who stated this, “Let an ultra intelligent machine be defined as amachine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever.Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultra intelligentmachine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an‘intelligence explosion’, and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus thefirst ultra intelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make.” [4] What we can take from this definition is not the doomsday scenario that we seewith The Terminator storyline, but rather that a machine could at some point be madewhich will have its own capacity to learn. With this ability to learn, given the resources,the machine would learn and evolve as though it was a living creature, and would learn at

a much greater rate. Eventually, this machine would be able to create other machines thatwould be able to learn and evolve at an even greater rate. This outcome is neither goodnor bad; it just simply explains what may potentially happen. This is a good basis from which we can define the term TechnologicalSingularity. Essentially, what is meant by the term is the point in time when machinesbecome intelligent, and their intelligence surpasses mankind’s ability to understand it. The actual term “Technological Singularity” was coined by former San DiegoState University professor of computer science and mathematics, Vernor Vinge. In his1993 presentation entitled, “The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive inthe Post-Human Era” he gives his thoughts on why the technological singularity mayoccur before the end of this century and how we might see it unfold [14]. We will look atsome of those thoughts and analyze whether or not they hold water still today. Also,another key proponent of the Singularity is Raymond Kurzweil, a graduate of ComputerScience at MIT and a highly respected member in the field of artificial intelligence. Wewill look at a theory called the Law of Accelerating Returns and gain a betterunderstanding of why he thinks this will lead to a technological singularity in our nearfuture [6].The Law of Accelerating Returns A recurring theme that presents itself when looking at the concept of theTechnological Singularity is the image of machines and systems that are far superior tohumans, but would this not seem to require intensely superior technology to that whichwe currently have? One might ask how such technology could be created even by the

end of this century. First, consider the theory of Raymond Kurzweil, The Law ofAccelerating Returns. We are all familiar with the concept of Moore’s Law which states that the densityof transistors on an integrated circuit doubles every 18 months while its relative pricecontinues to be reduced. This specific definition was a catalyst for which Kurzweil basedhis own, more generalized theory. He believes that technology as a whole advances at anexponential rate, not just the technology of integrated circuits as described by Moore’sLaw. Kurzweil looks at the evolution of mankind and extends that progress to the presentday. He notices that this progress advances at an exponential rate, and in particular,every boundary that has been encountered so far has been overcome not by a shift in theadvancement of a present technology, but the creation of a new one. Moore’s Law hasbeen described as peaking in potential within 10 to 20 years, the Law of AcceleratingReturns claims that a new technology will break through that barrier and continue ourexponential advance in technology [7]. Kurzweil states in the paper he used to describethis law entitled, “The Law of Accelerating Returns” that,“An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential,contrary to the common-sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won’t experience 100 yearsof progress in the twenty first century-it will be more like 20,000 years of progress. The‘returns,’ such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There’seven exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades,machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity-technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of humanhistory.” [7]

Kurzweil goes on in his paper to compliment his theory by noting the fact thathumans have shown exponential progress since before recorded history. If we look athumanity in a pre-civilized state we can see that shifts in technology such as utilizing fireand the invention of the wheel took tens of thousands of years to overcome. As timewent on major shifts in technology came much faster, advances in things like agricultureand organized civilization required only hundreds of years. Now in the present it is onlya matter of years between major technology shifts [7]. Although this is a compellingargument for the Law of Accelerating Returns, one question that arises is whether ouradvances in technology have come, at least in part, from an exponential increase inpopulation, and not solely on technology’s recursive power of advancement. Kurzweil puts a great deal of confidence in mankind’s ability to blow the lid offof the technology container as we push foreword into the 21st century. Clearly, this is arate of advance that only time will tell. However, The Law of Accelerating Returns is awidely accepted theory from which many proponents of the technological singularitybase their beliefs. It is in the unbridled exponential growth rate of our technology that isbelieved to in time give us the knowledge and sheer power to create such things as super-human artificial intelligence. So what kinds of technology might we see at the dawn of atechnological singularity?The Coming Singularity Mathematician and Computer Scientist Vernor Vinge utilizes the assumption thatthe Law of Accelerating Returns will accurately portray the future of technology and

believes that there are two general means by which a Technological Singularity mayoccur [13][14]. The first deals with creating artificial intelligence capable of modeling humanintellect. Imagine the last time you used an ATM. The system asked you for your card,your PIN, and how much money you wanted. It then more than likely produced themoney for you. Did you say thank you? Do we consider this machine intelligent? It isclear that the ATM is a machine with a program designed to process specific actions withmoney, but does it actually think about how to process your requests or does it simplymake the requests happen? Most of us would agree that it simply makes the requesthappen based on a set of preprogrammed rules. What about people like you and me? Webelieve ourselves to have the ability to think logically, and to be conscious of oursurroundings and our self. Can we replicate this? Could we possibly model this througha computer medium? Notable mathematician Alan Turing has claimed that anycalculation possible can be performed on a computer, given enough time and space, andwould therefore theoretically allow for this kind of simulation, but the philosophicalquestion remains, is it possible to represent the human mind through a machine? This isby definition a question of whether or not there is the capability to create Strong AI.Strong AI is artificial intelligence which would be able to intelligently solve problemsefficiently as or better than a human. This is in contrast to the example of the ATM,which displays characteristics of Weak AI, where the system has its ability in a certainspecific task [10]. On June 6th, 2005 IBM agreed to allow the use of their supercomputer systemBlue Gene for a project that was setting out in an attempt to begin modeling the human

brain. This is the Blue Brain Project. The cerebral cortex of our brains gives us theability to do many functions such as speak, remember, and critically solve problems.Within the cerebral cortex are organized units known as neocortical columns, eachholding around 10,000 neurons. These neurons are essentially the brain’s wiring.Currently, the Blue Brain Project has produced a correct, biologically precise simulationof a neocortical column down to the cellular and molecular level [1]. Quoting from theirproject description on their website they say that,“The Blue Brain Project is an attempt to reverse engineer the brain, to explore how itfunctions and to serve as a tool for neuroscientists and medical researchers. It is not anattempt to create a brain. It is not an artificial intelligence project. Although we may oneday achieve insights into the basic nature of intelligence and consciousness using thistool, the Blue Brain itself is simply a representation of a biological system and thuswould never be considered conscious itself.” [1]When initially looking at the claims of Vernor Vinge and his thoughts on creating StrongAI, it would seem to be, once again, a product of science fiction. This is evidence that itis not. Although The Blue Brain Project may not intend to create an artificial intelligencesystem, creating a simulation which allows for an intense understanding of both thehuman brain as an object and the human mind as a dynamic process has the potential topave the way for Strong AI projects. When looking at the process of creating artificialintelligence by modeling natural intelligence, we can relate its advancement to the Law ofAccelerating Returns. Fundamentally, it is necessary to first understand the biology,biochemistry, and psychology of a person before they are able to be accurately modeled.Through the use of computer technology and computer engineering, the ability to carry

out research in these fields is greatly amplified. This is an example of technology fuelingits own progress and is a concrete example of The Law of Accelerating Returns. The second means by which the Technological Singularity may occur accordingto Vernor Vinge is through a process known as intelligence amplification. This is theprocess of creating direct machine to brain interfaces, or in a more general sense, directmachine to human interfaces. This relatively new technology has been used to restorefunction to people with acquired sensory deficiencies such as blindness or deafness.Advancements in this technology have been shown through the use of cochlear implants,visual cortex implants, and prosthetics. In 2003 a new technology known as BrainGate was created by the companyCyberkinetics and developed by Brown University. In a human brain, neurons sendsignals to other parts of the body when actions are desired. These brain signals, or brainwaves, can be monitored and can be studied to better understand what parts of the braincontrol which actions. The purpose of BrainGate is to help restore function to paralyzedpeople by intercepting their brain waves and using them to operate objects outside of theperson’s body. In patients using BrainGate, a small computer chip is implanted directlyinto the brain’s motor cortex, which is the area responsible for controlling movement.The computer chip has 100 micro-electrodes which send the brain signals by wire to acomputer which interprets them in a program and subsequently allows movement of suchthings like prosthetic limbs or a cursor on a computer screen. When a person usingBrainGate is using its computer interface, literally thinking about moving the cursor upon the screen will move it up. The computer interface literally becomes a mechanical

part of the person’s body, allowing things such as checking email, drawing, and evenplaying sports games, using nothing but the mind [2][3]. What are the possibilities of this technology? If a person can have the capacity tocontrol a computer interface with their mind, what is to say that we could not addcomponents which enhance memory, or reaction time, or power of computation. TheBrainGate system is one example which makes these possibilities seem closer to reality.What would become of a person that had these enhancements?An old story tells of a man who owned a boat, every so often a piece of the boat would bedamaged and need to be replaced. After 10 years the man had replaced every piece of theboat at some time or another. Is it still the same boat he started with? Would a personwith intelligence amplification still be the same person? How far could it be brought?When looking at the possibility of intelligence amplification, we can again see a potentialexample of The Law of Accelerating Returns. A person with amplified brain functionthrough the use of artificial mechanisms would have the ability to learn faster and workmore efficiently in theory. This shows another example of how a new technology canfuel its own advancement. As a compliment to Strong AI and intelligence amplification as means to aSingularity event, Vinge describes to us what he calls a “soft takeoff” and a “hardtakeoff”. These terms define the Technological Singularity in terms of time. In a “softtakeoff”, the singularity event will be a relatively slow process beginning by anobservable learning and evolution process by an artificial system. By saying that aSingularity event has performed a “soft takeoff”, it is recognized that events have beenput in motion that will result in greater-than-human intelligence by an artificial system,

but that the progress will take a long time to occur. Vinge describes the process as takingdecades to complete. Regardless of the length of time, machine intelligence wouldsurpass human intelligence. In contrast, a “hard takeoff” would occur if an artificialsystem were to learn and evolve at an extraordinary rate [13][14], perhaps learning as fastas operations can take place on a typical computer. Vinge describes the process as takingdays or hours to occur. Remembering back to the introduction and The Terminatorstoryline, this is an example of a “hard takeoff”, where the Singularity event of activatingSkynet took only a few weeks before humanity lost control.Current Singularity Technology In addition to The Blue Brain Project and BrainGate technologies we have seen sofar, there are additional fields of research which show notable advances to our advancesin technology. The field of developmental and epigenetic robotics is a union of several fields ofacademic research including, developmental psychology, neurology, cognitive science,and of course, robotics. The goal of this recently organized field of study strives to createa machine that has the capacity to learn. In a developmental robotic system, the machinebegins in a state that is analogous to that of a human infant, with very minimalknowledge. The ability to take in information from its surrounding environment allowsthe machine to learn and subsequently form a more complex knowledge base which it canin turn use to interact in new and different ways with its environment. Certain abilitieshave been observed by developmental systems that have shown progress in machinelearning. Some systems have developed the capacity for language recognition and the

understanding that certain words represent specific objects and some have developed theunderstanding of ownership, where the machine knows the appropriate actions andlanguage to distinguish between when an object is its own and when it is not. There havebeen machines developed that have the ability to recognize and discriminate betweenother machines and its own reflection in a mirror. Researchers in the field ofdevelopmental and epigenetic robotics hope that in creating these machines they will notonly be able to have a greater understanding of how the human mind learns and develops,but also to have a machine which is able to take the place of humans in such tasks thatcould be considered hazardous or better suited for a machine. Developmental andEpigenetic robotics shows us a unique way in which we can approach the concept ofStrong AI [15][16]. Another field of research that strongly deals with intelligence amplification isnanotechnology. Nanotechnology is a very broad topic that deals with the manipulationof material and its composition at the atomic and molecular level (1 - 100nm). In thisfield of research, it is the goal of chemists and physicists to be able to manipulateindividual atoms for the purpose of creating virtually any compound desired. Althoughnanotechnology has the connotation of being a future technology, it has in fact beenaround for about as long as we have studied chemical engineering. New innovations inapplications such as industrial chemicals, electronics, and medicine, among others, alldisplay the results of molecular manipulation; it has simply followed a very restrictedpath due to the current technology available. These restrictions, however, are becomingfar less.

Nanotechnology researchers in time aim for the goal of being able to createmolecular structures by placing every individual atom in a desired arrangement. Withthese arrangements there can come a multitude of products such as micro-scalecomputers and nanorobotics. These machines can in turn be used for industrialapplications, namely the creation of much larger macro scale devices with a great deal ofprecision and also in medical applications, where anything from complex delivery ofmedicine, curing of disease, and, as was suggested earlier in the paper, the creation ofdirect brain to machine interfaces. It is clear that when our technology reaches a point atwhich we are truly able to harness the atom, the possibilities will quite literally beendless. [9]The Ethics of a New Era What would it be like to live in a society that has advanced past the TechnologicalSingularity? Would we simply be living in a time in which we have a great deal ofresources at our disposal, or will we be living in a post-human era? Although thesequestions are pure speculation for us in this present time, a question that we could beasking is this: Is it ethical to be moving toward a technological singularity, whether wemean to or not? The question truly presents a paradox, if we are striving to obtainadvances that might one day be a great harm to us, should we stop researchingaltogether? This is impossible, it is in our nature as humans to learn and advance. Thefuture has many great things in store, and the future is inevitable. We must learn to usetechnology to enhance our lives instead of letting technology run ours. If we can learn todo that, it will be one of the greatest achievements we could attain.

Questions for Review1. Describe the difference between Moore’s Law and The Law of Accelerating Returns.2. Describe the difference between Strong AI and Weak AI and give an argument as to whether or not you think human intellect can be modeled through a computer simulation.3. Define intelligence amplification and give an argument as to why you believe this may or may not lead to a Technological Singularity.

Bibliography1. “Blue Brain Project.” Ecole Polytechnique Federale De Lausanne. 2007. http://bluebrain.epfl.ch/2. “Brain Gate Neural Interface” History Channel Video 23 April 2007. YouTube, http://www.youtube.com3. CyberKinetics. “BrainGate Neural Interface System”. 2005. <http://www.cyberkineticsinc.com/content/medicalproducts/braingate.jsp>4. “Irving John Good.” 20 March 2007. Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I._J._Good5. “IT Conversations.” Accelerating Change 2005. 16-18 September 2005. http://www.itconversations.com/series/achange2005.html6. KurzweilAI.net. 2007. http://www.kurzweilai.net/index.html?flash=17. Kurzweil, Raymond. “The Law of Accelerating Returns.” 7 March 2001. KurzweilAI.net http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=18. “Modeling Cognitive Development in Robotic Systems.” Epigenetic Robotics 2007. 5-7 November 2007. http://www.d.umn.edu/~cprince/Conferences/EpiRob07/9. Nanotechnology.com. “Big Picture on Nanoscience” 2005. http://www.nanotechnology.com/intro/10. “Strong AI vs. Weak AI.” 4 March 2007. Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strong_AI11. “Technological Singularity.” 26 March 2007. Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity12. “Vernor Vinge.” 25 March 2007. Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vernor_Vinge13. “Vernor Vinge Keynote Address.” Accelerating Change 2005. MP3 Audio Recording. Stanford University, 2005. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vernor_Vinge14. Vinge, Vernor. “The Coming Technological Singularity.” 30-31 March 1993. VISION-21 Symposium, http://wwwrohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/vinge/misc/singularity.html

15. Weng, J., McClelland, J., Pentland, A., Sporns, O., Stockman, I., Sur, M., & Thelen, E. (2001). Autonomous mental development by robots and animals. Science, 291, 599-600 http://www.cse.msu.edu/dl/SciencePaper.pdf16. Zlatev, J. & Balkenius, C. (2001). Introduction: Why "epigenetic robotics"? Proceedings of the First International Workshop on Epigenetic Robotics: Modeling Cognitive Development in Robotic Systems (pp. 1-4). Lund University Cognitive Studies, Volume 85. http://www.lucs.lu.se/Epigenetic- robotics/Papers/Zlatev.Balkenius.2001.pdf

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Sebesta-Technologica..

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Sebesta-Technologica.. — Document Transcript