Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends April 2014

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Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends April 2014. Provided courtesy of Arthur Prescott of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Georgia Properties in Cumming on Lake Lanier.

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Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends April 2014

  1. 1. Greater Metro Atlanta Market
  2. 2. 125,000 Homes Sold In 2006. 60,000 Homes Sold in 2010. 2013 Closings 1.3% Behind 2012. 2014 Similar To 2013. 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Metro Atlanta Homes Sold
  3. 3. March Closings Up 17.8% Compared To February Closings Mar. 2014 Closings Down 12.4% Compared To Mar. 2013 Closings 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000Jan-13 Feb M ar A pr M ay Jun Jul A ug Sept O ct N ov D ecJan-14Feb-14M ar-14 Prior Year Current Month Metro Atlanta 2013-2014 Closings
  4. 4. 752 1260 1494 281 42 6 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 < $100K $100K- $200K $200K- $500K $500K-$1 mil $1 mil - $2 Mil $2 Mil + Metro Atlanta Closings – March 2014 (Number Of Transactions)
  5. 5. Listed Inventory January 2012 - March 2014 Residential Detached, Metro Atlanta Inventory Up 6.8% from Feb. 2014, Up 18.9% from Mar. 2013 -2500 2500 7500 12500 17500 22500 27500 Inventory Up 23.9% From Recent Bottom Of Feb. 2013
  6. 6. 18 42 8.35.23.73.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 < $100K $100K- $200K $200K- $500K $500K-1 Mil $1 Mil - $2 Mil $2 Mil + Metro Atlanta Months of Inventory (March 2014, Based On Closed Sales) Overall “Months Of Inventory” Is 4.7 Months 6 Months Supply Is Considered A Normal Market
  7. 7. ASP Up 8.4% From Last Month & Up 12.9% From Last Mar. $184 $201 $217 $233 $241 $249 $255 $240 $225 $231 $222 $240 $221 $226 $245 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Jan-13 Feb M ar A pr M ay Jun Jul A ug Sept O ct N ov D ec Jan-14 Feb-1414-M ar Metro Atlanta Monthly Average Sale Prices
  8. 8. Annual ASP Up 31.25% From Bottom Of 2011 $261 $268 $209 $189 $190 $176 $183 $229 $231 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Metro Atlanta Annual Average Sale Prices
  9. 9. Metro Atlanta Foreclosure Comparisons (Data by RealValuator)
  10. 10. Baby Boomers Are #1 Buyer Segment
  11. 11. Chart Shows Index Results January 2010 Through January 2014 Home Values Up 37% From Bottom of March 2012 – But Leveling. 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 Jan A pr Jul O ct Jan A pr July O ct Jan A pr July O ct Jan A pr JulO ctober Jan Case-Shiller Index For Metro Atlanta (January 2014 Results - Reported March 2014)
  12. 12. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Case-Shiller Home Values For Metro Atlanta • Peak was July 2007. Current Home Values Remain Below The Normal Trend Line. But Prices Are Correcting!
  13. 13. Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Georgia Properties
  14. 14. Information Provided By Trendgraphix. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 BHHS KW AP HNR MB CB SS AFH YTD Transactions – March 2014 FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent
  15. 15. Information Provided By Trendgraphix. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 BHHS KW-AP CB HNR MB AFH SS YTD Listing Sales – March 2014 FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent
  16. 16. Information Provided By Trendgraphix. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 BHHS KW-AP HNR MB CB SS AFH YTD Buyers Represented – March 2014 FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent
  17. 17. Information Provided By Trendgraphix and BHHS GP Internal Reports. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 BHHS HNR KW-AP MB CB AFH SS YTD Listing Inventory – March 2014 FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent
  18. 18. Economic & Housing Trends
  19. 19. • Georgia Lost 325,000 Jobs In The Great Recession. • 2012 Restarted Positive Job Growth Trend! -250,000 -50,000 -25,000 63,400 66,200 76,000 93,100 -300000 -250000 -200000 -150000 -100000 -50000 0 50000 100000 150000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 More Jobs In Georgia! (Reports From UGA Terry College of Business/ Georgia State Economic Forecasting Center)
  20. 20. 3% 4% 15% 4% 8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Home Value Trends For Metro Atlanta Forecast By Rajeev Dhawan, GSU Economic Forecasting Center Provided At ABR Residential Summit on 2/10/14 • Average Annual Appreciation is 6.8%. Drivers Include Job Growth, Population Growth, Pent-Up Demand, Historically Reasonable Mortgages, New Homes Help Drive Up Overall Values.
  21. 21. Major Group Moves And More Coming …
  22. 22. Rustbelt To Sunbelt
  23. 23. 4,944,939 7,377,951 8,256,323 - 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 ARC 20-Cty Population Forecast Population Growth 20-County Forecast Area
  24. 24. Baby Boomers Are Coming To Be Close To Their Children & Grandchildren. Source :Census Bureau Total Population Rank of Share Under 20 20-64 65+ 25-39 45-59 Dallas 6,144,489 3 9 25 1 24 Atlanta 5,271,550 5 6 27 2 19 Phoenix 4,179,427 4 24 15 3 26 Denver 2,466,591 11 5 24 4 12 Riverside 4,081,371 1 27 22 5 27 Houston 5,629,127 2 10 26 6 21 Portland 2,174,631 19 4 19 7 7 Seattle 3,309,347 22 1 20 8 3 Sacramento 2,091,120 12 13 14 9 20 Washington 5,306,125 14 3 23 10 11 Los Angeles 12,875,587 6 17 18 11 23 San Diego 2,974,859 8 14 16 12 25 San Francisco 4,203,898 26 2 10 13 4 Orlando 2,032,496 18 15 8 14 22 Minneapolis 3,208,212 10 7 21 15 6 Chicago 9,522,879 7 16 17 16 18 New York 18,815,988 21 12 6 17 15 Boston 4,482,857 23 8 9 18 10 Cincinnati 2,134,864 9 19 13 19 14 Baltimore 2,668,056 17 11 11 20 9 Detroit 4,467,592 13 18 12 21 5 Philadelphia 5,827,962 16 21 5 22 13 St. Louis 2,802,282 15 20 7 23 8 Miami 5,413,212 24 26 3 24 17 Tampa 2,723,949 25 25 1 25 16 Cleveland 2,096,471 20 23 4 26 2 Pittsburgh 2,355,712 27 22 2 27 1 Metro Atlanta Has The: •#2 Population Age 25-39 •#5 Population Under 20
  25. 25. Atlanta is 56% Cheaper To Buy! Metro Atlanta Is 56% Better To Buy Than Rent Rental Bubble May Be Looming With Over 13,000 Multi-Family Rental Units Under Construction Or Proposed
  26. 26. • New Household Formation Dropped From 1.2 Mil (2006) To 400,000 (2008) • Growing To 1.2 Million In 2013. Lots Of Pent-Up Demand. • 4 Million Students Per Year Graduate From College For Next 10 Years! 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1995- 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 U. S. Household Formation Trends Demand For 1st Time Buyers Will Be Strong! Source: U.S. Census, JCHS Household Growth Projections, Goldman Sachs
  27. 27. Prices Improving and Mortgage Rates Rising. But Home Affordability Remains Historically Favorable. 207 187 187 197 194 160 154 146 141 116 0 50 100 150 200 250 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 National Housing Affordability Index (Combination of home prices and mortgage rates)
  28. 28. Average Rates Around 8%
  29. 29. 3.9 3.4 3.7 3.5 5.0 3.9 3.5 3.8 5.5 4.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 Freddie Mac & Mortgage Bankers Association 30-Year Fixed Rate Forecast (April 2014) 2010 – 2014 Quarterly Averages 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Freddie Mac MBA
  30. 30. Amount Of Mortgage 3.5% Mortgage 30-Year Cost 5% Mortgage 30-Year Cost 8% Mortgage 30-Year Cost $200,000 $898 $323,280 $1,073 $386,280 $1,467 $528,120 $300,000 $1,347 $484,920 $1,610 $579,600 $2,201 $792,360 $400,000 $1,796 $646,560 $2,147 $772,920 $2,935 $1,056,600 $500,000 $2,245 $808,200 $2,684 $966,240 $3,668 $1,320,480 $1 million $4,490 $1,616,400 $5,368 $1,932,480 $7,337 $2,641,320 Increasing Mortgage Rates Make A Significant Difference In Home Affordability

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