Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

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Real estate market trends for the Greater Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market. See the latest real estate statistics and the performance of Prudential Georgia Realty.

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Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

  1. 1. Greater Metro Atlanta Market
  2. 2. 125,000 Homes Sold In 2006. 60,000 Homes Sold in 2010. 2013 Closings Down Due To Low Inventory And Higher Fallout Rates. 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Metro Atlanta Homes Sold
  3. 3. Listed Inventory June 2011 – June 2013 Residential Detached - Metro Atlanta • Inventory Levels Down 19% from June 2012, 48.7% from June 2011 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
  4. 4. 6.2 4.9 5.0 4.3 4.0 4.1 3.8 4.4 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.6 4.2 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.8 7.4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Jan Feb M ar A pr M ay Jun Jul A ug Sept O ct N ov D ec Jan Feb M ar A pr M ay Jun Metro Atlanta – Months Of Supply (Based Upon Closed Sales) 6 Months Is Considered A Normal Market
  5. 5. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 < $100K $100K- $200K $200K- $500K $500K- $750K $750K-$1 Mil $1 mil - $2 Mil $2 Mil + Metro Atlanta Months of Inventory (Based On Closed Sales) It Is A Sellers Market Below $500K In Most Areas. 6 Months Supply Is Considered A Normal Market
  6. 6. Investors See The Opportunity To Buy Low, Lease & Sell High For Single Family Properties! This Is Causing A Shortage Of Inventory Under $200,000.
  7. 7. Average Sales Price Up 38.5% In 2013 $184 $201 $217 $233 $241 $255 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Metro Atlanta 2013 Average Sale Prices
  8. 8. Average Sales Price Increasing From Bottom Of 2011 $241 $253 $261 $268 $209 $189 $190 $176 $183 $221 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Metro Atlanta Average Annual Sale Price Trend
  9. 9. Chart Shows Index Results January 2010 Through April 2013 (As Reported June 2013) 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sept Nov Jan Mar May July Sept Nov Jan Mar Case-Shiller Index For Metro Atlanta Up 20.8% in Last 12 Months!
  10. 10. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Case-Shiller Home Values For Metro Atlanta • Peak was July 2007. Current Home Values Remain Below The Normal Trend Line. But Prices Are Slowly Correcting!
  11. 11. -0.3 -0.3 2.4 1.8 2.1 1.8 -1.0 -6.2 2.6 1.7 2.0 2.1 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 U.S. GDP Georgia GSP Georgia Economy Outperforming The National Economy In 2013 (Terry College of Business – University of Georgia)
  12. 12. • Georgia Lost 325,000 Jobs In The Great Recession. • 2012 Restarted Positive Job Growth Trend! -250,000 -50,000 -25,000 68,400 63,300 76,500 94,400 -300000 -250000 -200000 -150000 -100000 -50000 0 50000 100000 150000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 More Jobs In Georgia! (Data From Terry College of Business/ UGA& Georgia State Economic Forecasting Center)
  13. 13. Major Group Moves And More Coming …
  14. 14. Rustbelt To Sunbelt
  15. 15. 4,944,939 7,377,951 8,256,323 - 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 ARC 20-Cty Population Forecast Population Growth 20-County Forecast Area
  16. 16. Baby Boomers Are Coming To Be Close To Their Children & Grandchildren. Source :Census Bureau Total Population Rank of Share Under 20 20-64 65+ 25-39 45-59 Dallas 6,144,489 3 9 25 1 24 Atlanta 5,271,550 5 6 27 2 19 Phoenix 4,179,427 4 24 15 3 26 Denver 2,466,591 11 5 24 4 12 Riverside 4,081,371 1 27 22 5 27 Houston 5,629,127 2 10 26 6 21 Portland 2,174,631 19 4 19 7 7 Seattle 3,309,347 22 1 20 8 3 Sacramento 2,091,120 12 13 14 9 20 Washington 5,306,125 14 3 23 10 11 Los Angeles 12,875,587 6 17 18 11 23 San Diego 2,974,859 8 14 16 12 25 San Francisco 4,203,898 26 2 10 13 4 Orlando 2,032,496 18 15 8 14 22 Minneapolis 3,208,212 10 7 21 15 6 Chicago 9,522,879 7 16 17 16 18 New York 18,815,988 21 12 6 17 15 Boston 4,482,857 23 8 9 18 10 Cincinnati 2,134,864 9 19 13 19 14 Baltimore 2,668,056 17 11 11 20 9 Detroit 4,467,592 13 18 12 21 5 Philadelphia 5,827,962 16 21 5 22 13 St. Louis 2,802,282 15 20 7 23 8 Miami 5,413,212 24 26 3 24 17 Tampa 2,723,949 25 25 1 25 16 Cleveland 2,096,471 20 23 4 26 2 Pittsburgh 2,355,712 27 22 2 27 1 Metro Atlanta Has The: •#2 Population Age 25-39 •#5 Population Under 20
  17. 17. Atlanta is 56% Cheaper To Buy! Metro Atlanta Is 56% Better To Buy Than Rent
  18. 18. • New Household Formation Dropped From 1.2 Mil (2006) To 400,000 (2008) • Growing To 1.2 Million In 2013. Lots Of Pent-Up Demand. • 4 Million Students Per Year Graduate From College For Next 10 Years! 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1995- 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 U. S. Household Formation Trends Demand For 1st Time Buyers Will Be Strong! Source: U.S. Census, JCHS Household Growth Projections, Goldman Sachs
  19. 19. Prices Improving and Mortgage Rates Rising. But Home Affordability Remains Historically Favorable. 207 187 187 197 194 160 154 146 141 116 0 50 100 150 200 250 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 National Housing Affordability Index (Combination of home prices and mortgage rates)
  20. 20. Average Rates Around 8%
  21. 21. 4.9 4.9 3.9 4.9 4.4 3.8 4.7 5.0 4.4 4.8 3.5 4.6 4.4 4.2 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 Freddie Mac & Mortgage Bankers Association 30-Year Fixed Rate Forecast (June 2013) 2010 – 2014 Quarterly Averages 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Freddie Mac MBA
  22. 22. Amount Of Mortgage 3.5% Mortgage 30-Year Cost 5% Mortgage 30-Year Cost 8% Mortgage 30-Year Cost $200,000 $898 $323,280 $1,073 $386,280 $1,467 $528,120 $300,000 $1,347 $484,920 $1,610 $579,600 $2,201 $792,360 $400,000 $1,796 $646,560 $2,147 $772,920 $2,935 $1,056,600 $500,000 $2,245 $808,200 $2,684 $966,240 $3,668 $1,320,480 $1 million $4,490 $1,616,400 $5,368 $1,932,480 $7,337 $2,641,320 Increasing Mortgage Rates Make A Significant Difference In Home Affordability
  23. 23. Metro Atlanta New Homes Charts Provided By SmartNumbers and ViaSearch
  24. 24. Metro Atlanta Closings Blue – Resale Red – New Homes New Homes Closings Up 55% From Last Year. Resale Units In 2012 At Levels Not Seen Since 2006. But Almost 50% Of Resale Units From Investors Under $200k.
  25. 25. Buyer Types For New Homes First Time Buyers And Baby Boomers Remain Most Active Segments. We Are Looking To See The 1st & 2nd Move-Up Buyers Return.
  26. 26. New Home Permits New Home Starts Growing Steadily!
  27. 27. Metro Atlanta Inventory (Black Arrow Is Population Trend) Population Trends Growing Faster Than Inventory
  28. 28. Prudential Georgia Realty Ranked #1 In Homes Sold – 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and YTD 2013
  29. 29. 876 4540 719 5299 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 PGR Market June 2013 Closings Vs. June 2012 Closings • PGR Closings Were Up 21.8% Compared To June 2012. • The Market Was Down 14.3% Compared To June 2012. • PGR Pendings Were Up 33.4% Compared To June 2012! PGR Outperforms The Market By 36.1%!
  30. 30. 4161 25600 3711 26718 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 PGR Market YTD 2013 Closings Vs. YTD 2012 Closings (Data As of June 2013) PGR Outperforms The Market By 16.3%! • PGR Closings Were Up 12.1% Compared To YTD 2012. • The Market Was Down 4.2% Compared To YTD 2012. • PGR Pendings Were Up 25.3% Compared To YTD 2012!
  31. 31. Information Provided By Trendgraphix. PGR Numbers Internal. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 PGR HNR KW-AP CB MB SS AFH YTD Transactions – June 2013 FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent 6% 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 3.6% 2.4% 1.6%
  32. 32. Information Provided By Trendgraphix. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 PGR HNR KW-AP CB MB SS AFH YTD Listing Sales – June 2013 FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent
  33. 33. Information Provided By Trendgraphix. Buyer Sales Units – June 2013 FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 PGR HNR KW-AP MB CB SS AFH
  34. 34. Information Provided By Trendgraphix. PGR Numbers Internal. Current Listing Inventory – June 2013 FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 PGR HNR KW-AP MB CB AFH SS

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