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Trends That - Conference 2009 (C4)

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Session C4 - ARPA 2009 Conference

Session C4 - ARPA 2009 Conference

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  • 1. Foresight acting on the trends that matter
  • 2. Why do managers pay attention to trends … Insight to help Early indicators of shifts position agency in consumer interests on emerging - marketing stakeholder agendas Identify emerging best practices Indicators of Trends impending resource or supply problems Identification of opportunities Warnings of shifts in funder Early alert to priorities/interests emerging threats RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 3. The fundamental reason to pay attention … every product/service has a life PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE expectancy – natural decline in demand should be expected as interests and markets change, as the competition invents alternatives, as our product becomes stale SUNRISE SUNSET MATURITY Phase Phase demand/ Examples: profitability buggies to cars, trains to planes political parties and/or their platforms records (3 sizes), tapes (2 sizes), time disks, downloads, blueray … outdoor hockey to indoor arenas Two strategies when decline is anticipated: rectangular pools to leisure pools • extend the sunset (add value to product) • replace with an upgraded or new service designed to deliver the same benefit RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 4. Help has arrived – a new resource! www.foresight-trendscan.blogspot.com RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 5. The Trends That Matter State of the Field Macro-Trends: the big picture Emerging Leisure Classes Shifts in Leisure Behaviour Recession Leisure Behaviour Key Tourism Trends Digital Age Behaviour Facility Management Trends Voluntary Sector Trends Management Trends RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 6. State of the Recreation and Parks Field Loss of Lottery Federal Drop-Out Funding Recreation Canada in many provinces Fitness Canada Provincial Decline in Devolution Participation Rates diminished agencies in many traditional Wake Up and investment programs/activities across Canada Calls Delivery by University Other Fields Program Cuts - health, social work, or significant education, justice demotions - public works Loss of Departmental Status In many municipalities RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 7. Key Question – Key Strategy Question Do you share our concern about the general state of the recreation and parks field? NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES Strategy Demand that our provincial and territorial recreation and parks organizations work together to develop and deliver an advocacy program to strengthen public and government understanding, commitment and support. RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 8. MACRO-TRENDS: the ‘Big Picture’ New Technologies New Socio-Institutional Paradigms Institutional Old Technologies Inertia Old Socio-Institutional Paradigms Entrepreneurship New Opportunities Time Continuous Discontinuous New Continuous Change Change Change adapted from Mike Hollinshead RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 9. EMERGING PARADIGMS Shifting FROM Shifting TOWARDS industrial values person-centered values petroleum economy hydrogen economy industrial economy information economy (smart processes) metal and plastics polymers, ceramics, composites machines nanotechnology chemicals/pharmaceuticals biotechnology and genetic engineering mass demand/production segmented demand/customized production western economies dominate emerging economies dominate local communication virtual global village Independent computer assisted devices integrated ‘smart’ systems separation/independence of convergence of information, microelectronics and telecommunications communication & entertainment technologies programmed computers artificial intelligence (AI) and expert systems RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 10. BELIEFS, VALUES, ATTITUDES and BEHAVIOURS Moving Away FROM Moving TOWARDS Sacrifice of self Celebration of Self Independence Interdependence Consumerism Quality of Life Local Perspectives Global Perspectives Anthropocentrism Environmental Stewardship Judgemental Perceptive Responsive/Rigid Adaptive/Flexible Adverse to Risk Calculated Risk Taking Resisting Change Embracing Change CHANGING Day to Day Life Day to Day Life Government Orientation Government Orientation Business Orientation Business Orientation RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 11. Managing from ‘the middle’ Politicians Traditional Emerging Paradigm Provincial Paradigm Recreation •industrial •sustainable, Municipal person centered •holding on to Recreation old materials •new economy and processes Community •informed and •limited Recreation interactive communication •embracing •resisting change change Publics/Stakeholders RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 12. KEY QUESTIONS Is Canadian Society really transitioning from left to right columns? Do you personally welcome the transitions described? Is leisure the low risk opportunity to ‘try out’ and model new values and behaviours? Does your agency understand the transitions described? Is it committed to a facilitation/leadership role? Is there enough critical mass in the right columns that you as a leisure service manager feel confident in leading accordingly? Or, do you simply feel caught in the middle of opposing camps – unable to please everybody? RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 13. Key Question – Key Strategy Question Should the recreation and parks field strategically adopt and facilitate emerging post-industrial values? person centred – interdependence/community – quality of life - green/sustainable - global NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES Strategy Work with your community/stakeholders to clarify the values that will guide your services; brand your organization accordingly; conduct your own value performance audit. RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 14. Emerging Leisure Classes 140 120 hours per week 100 80 60 40 20 0 1986 1992 1998 2005 Leisure 1 Leisure 2 Leisure 3 Leisure 4 Leisure 1: entertainment, social activity, sports, hobbies, media, relaxation, gardening, pet care – up 0.10 Leisure 2: 1 plus personal care activities including sleep – down 1.03 Leisure 3: 2 plus child care – up 0.07 Leisure 4: complement of time spent on market and non-market work – down 3.96 Source: McFarlance and Teds, University of Manitoba RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 15. Leisure and total work time – by age and gender RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 16. Shifting Demographics RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 17. Canadian Household Spending Patterns Office of Consumer Affairs – Government of Canada RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 18. Trends in Importance of BARRIERS to Participation Cost of equipment/ 1981 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 supplies Fees/Charges 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Too busy with work 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Too busy with 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 family Overcrowded 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Facilities Poorly 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 maintained facilities 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 No opportunity near home 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Too busy with 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 other activities RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 19. Essential Preconditions to Leisure – Time &/or Money Time but no money Both time and money Current Public Sector Historic Market modest fee for service Scouting demanding schedules or YMCA use requirements to justify membership Available Discretionary Time Boys and Girls Clubs free public recreation Available Discretionary Income Current Private Sector fee for service or membership positioned for convenience Neither time nor money Money but(West) Inc. RETHINK no time
  • 20. Emerging Leisure Classes – ready market Golden Oldies young seniors 10% Blessed Ones Age 55-70 Available Discretionary Time 15% DINKS baby boomers and gen X Available Discretionary Income Fastest growing market as baby boom ages. Canadians over the age of 55 represent 26% of the population, have 60% of the discretionary spending power, and 78% of the personal wealth. Does your organization offer the quality and value they desire? RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 21. Emerging Leisure Classes – high demand, low/no profit Long Term Seniors on Uninsured Disability CPP/OAS (only) Children Living Single Parent in Poverty Family Available Discretionary Time Not working 15% 20% Unemployed/ Baby Underemployed Busters 10 – 20% (now 35-43) Adults 18% First Nations Living 4% Alone 10.5% Available Discretionary Income The most populated quadrant. Does your organization have an accessibility mandate? RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 22. Emerging Leisure Classes – challenge to reach Can your organization be there when this market has the time and energy? Weekly, scheduled programs not possible … Available Discretionary Income Available Discretionary Time Self-Employed/ Entrepreneur Executives Teenagers over 50% now have part time Working Moms jobs 80% with children under 13 have FT jobs RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 23. Emerging Leisure Classes – the disenfranchised Limited time/limited funds – does your organization have any interest? Available Discretionary Time Available Discretionary Income The Working Poor RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 24. Key Question – Key Strategy Question Is your organization optimally positioned on the discretionary time/discretionary income matrix? NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES Strategy Conduct an informal audit of current programs and services to identify which population cohorts might not have access due to either time or financial constraints. Clarify related policies and make service adjustments accordingly. RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 25. Shifts in Leisure Behaviour/Patterns Shifting FROM Shifting TOWARDS formal, highly structured activities informal, self-scheduled, casual team sports and activities individual activities directed programs – teaching self-directed learning fitness focus holistic wellness active orientation relatively passive consumptive activities environmentally-friendly indoor ‘facility’ focus home and outdoor focus ‘doing something’ ‘experiencing’ – quality/depth activity as ‘end’ activity as ‘means’ (to bigger ends) RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 26. Physical Activity Trends % adults (20+) meeting minimum requirement – equivalent to ½ hr. walking daily 70 60 50 Canada 40 Alberta Saskatchewan 30 BC 20 10 0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2005 RETHINK (West) Inc. Canadian Fitness and Lifestyle Research Institute
  • 27. Men more active than women % adults (20+) meeting minimum requirement – equivalent to ½ hr. walking daily 60 50 40 All adults 30 Men Women 20 10 0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 RETHINK (West) Inc. Canadian Fitness and Lifestyle Research Institute
  • 28. PA increasing for all ages – levels decrease with age % adults (20+) meeting minimum requirement – equivalent to ½ hr. walking daily 70 60 50 aged 20-24 40 aged 25-44 aged 45-64 30 aged 65+ 20 10 0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 RETHINK (West) Inc. Canadian Fitness and Lifestyle Research Institute
  • 29. Physical Activity for children and youth Indicator 2005/2006 2007/2008 2015 target % children meeting physical activity guidelines – 90 minutes per day 9% 13% 20% Mean number of steps per day – 2005 to 2008 11,300 12,000 14,500 Boys are more active than girls – by about 10% Physical activity levels fall off in older age groups – almost twice as many 5-10 year olds meet minimum as 15-19 year olds RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 30. Activity Trends Hours per week by Major Activity – Canada, Men 4 3.5 3 All Sport 2.5 Hobbies Garden/Pet Care 2 Computer Use 1.5 Entertainment Walk/Run/Hike/Jog 1 0.5 0 1986 1992 1998 2005 RETHINK (West) Inc. McFarlance and Teds, University of Manitoba - 2007
  • 31. Activity Trends Hours per week by Major Activity – Canada, Women 3.5 3 2.5 All Sport Hobbies 2 Garden/Pet Care Computer Use 1.5 Entertainment 1 Walk/Run/Hike/Jog 0.5 0 1986 1992 1998 2005 RETHINK (West) Inc. McFarlance and Teds, University of Manitoba - 2007
  • 32. Child Sport Participation - Canada RETHINK (West) Inc. Canadian Social Trends, Statistics Canada – 2008
  • 33. What’s happening in Alberta – Team/Group Sports % Household Participation 40 35 Bowling/Lawn Bowling Soccer 30 Ice Hockey 25 Basketball Softball/Bseball 20 Volleyball 15 Curling Football 10 Rugby 5 Ringette 0 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 RETHINK (West) Inc. Alberta Recreation Survey
  • 34. What’s happening in Alberta – Creative/Cultural % Household Participation 80 70 Attending a fair/festival 60 Craft/Creative Hobby 50 Visit museum/art gallery 40 Attending Live Theatre 30 Taking part in the arts 20 Dancing 10 0 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 RETHINK (West) Inc. Alberta Recreation Survey
  • 35. What’s happening in Alberta – Outdoor High Impact % Household Participation 60 50 Overnight Camping 40 Fishing ATV/Off Road 30 Horseback/Trail Riding Hunting 20 Motorized Trail Biking Moto-cross 10 0 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 RETHINK (West) Inc. Alberta Recreation Survey
  • 36. What’s happening in Alberta – Outdoor Low Impact % Household Participation 45 40 35 30 Day Hiking 25 Birdwatching 20 Mountain Climbing Orienteering 15 10 5 0 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 RETHINK (West) Inc. Alberta Recreation Survey
  • 37. What’s happening in Alberta – Home Based % Household Participation 100 90 80 Walking for Pleasure 70 60 Gardening 50 Crafts/Hobbies 40 30 Video/Electronic Games 20 10 0 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 RETHINK (West) Inc. Alberta Recreation Survey
  • 38. Canada – visitation to selected parks/venues % adults visiting at least once in previous 12 months 60 50 conservation area/natural park 40 zoos, aqaurims, botanical gardens, 30 planetariums, observatories 20 historic sites 10 0 1992 1998 2005 RETHINK (West) Inc. General Social Survey - Canada
  • 39. Key Question – Key Strategy Question Has your organization found the optimal balance between investment in/support for fitness, sport, arts/culture, and outdoor recreation. NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES Strategy Consciously shift your investment portfolio to increase attention to growth markets (fitness, arts/culture, outdoors, home based) and take a more cautious approach to declining markets (sport). Review policies related to priority age cohorts to address needs, opportunities and challenges relating to an aging society. RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 40. Canadian Recreation Spending Patterns Average annual household expenditure ($) – 1982 to 1999 800 Event Admission 700 Recreational Fees 600 Home recreation 500 equipment Home entertainment 400 equipment Athletic Equipment 300 200 RV/camping 100 Cablevision 0 Package Trips 1982 1999 RETHINK (West) Inc. Francis Kremarik, Canadian Social Trends (2002)
  • 41. Gaming now bigger than music or movies … RETHINK (West) Inc. Arstechnica.com/gaming/news
  • 42. Massive investment in hardware ensures future … Value of purchases ($ billion) 40 35 30 25 video game hardware 20 video game software 15 10 5 0 2005 2006 2007 RETHINK (West) Inc. www.slideshare.net/EhOs/video-game-industry-trends
  • 43. Gaming – a balanced and aging market % new gamers % established gamers Age Group (under 2 years) (over 2 years) 45 - 54 20 17 35 - 44 20 20 25 - 34 27 22 18 - 24 16 19 12 - 17 17 22 RETHINK (West) Inc. www.scribd.com/doc/16938922/Gaming-Trends-2009
  • 44. Gaming Trends Broader Demographic Virtual Worlds Next Generation Social Gaming Mobile Gaming Physical Activity through gaming (Wii, Natal) From Consumers to Contributors RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 45. Recession Leisure – cementing trends already in place Less – voluntary simplicity Observers are More time at home seeing a consistent pattern Investing in your own in how we are ‘entertainment assets’ home entertainment electronics adapting our fitness equipment and related digital leisure in a instruction recession Board games increasing in declining environment toy market … and predicting a Socializing online permanent Valuing experience over change in commodities behaviour The Staycation RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 46. Key Question – Key Strategy Question Has your organization begun to strategically develop recreation opportunities that are less expensive and less dependent on specialized facilities located at some distance from the user’s home? NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES Strategy Develop a portfolio of marketable programs and/or services that are low cost and utilize readily accessible, multi-use local facilities. Develop a series of services that are designed to augment and complement the trend to home based fitness and recreation. RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 47. The Staycation Why? People are high cost of travel – restraint vacationing at or budgets near their homes much more often Concerns about travel safety and security – health, terrorism, crime, etc. … and it is likely a Growing appreciation of the trend that will take negative cultural and root and be with environmental impacts of us for some time. traditional tourism RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 48. Add in the trend toward blocks of leisure time … lots of vacation days logged by older workers restraint driven trend to 4-Day Week underemployed and shift to part time work increased shift work self-employment and flexibility of working from home early retirement – forced by economy delayed retirement – often part time or project work RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 49. Blending recreation and tourism Implications/Opportunities The result will Increased investment in home based be both a leisure spaces and equipment – reinforcement outdoor dining, spas, entertainment of current rooms trends … Increased popularity of events/festivals … and a Demand for intensive programs, blending of workshops, clinics, etc. recreation and Growing market for any tourism tourism. enterprise near a major urban centre Growing market for any recreation enterprise that wants to reposition slightly to appeal to the local ‘tourist’ RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 50. Emerging Tourism Markets Adventurous baby boomers Grounded Snowbirds Adrenalin Seekers Low Functioners Inter-Generational Tourists Gay Travellers The New Learner Spiritual Travellers – the New Pilgrims RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 51. Key Question – Key Strategy Question Does your organization work closely with the local tourism industry – recognizing that tourism is simply recreation away from home and that recreation, sport, arts/culture and parks agencies generally manage the attractions. NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES Strategy Develop a collaborative plan to capitalize on the staycation trend. Partner with the tourism industry to develop assets that straddle recreation, sport, arts/culture and tourism markets. Position your organization as a critical component of the tourism industry. RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 52. What if digital age behaviour becomes leisure behaviour? Immediate Customized My Digital Age Flexible/ network Behaviour Spontaneous No fixed Free address Interactive/Participatory RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 53. Digital Age Behaviour - implications get involved with social networking to learn what your stakeholders want and increase your visibility/findability retain some facility flexibility to accommodate the immediate demands that digital consumers will create connect with (potential) consumers to co-develop leisure opportunities – share the planning and program development responsibility recruit and support the natural leadership that emerges as social networks focus and create opportunities Recognize that consumers would prefer to share their leisure with their existing network than rely on you to gather/register a bunch of strangers RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 54. The Digital Age Leisure Paradigm Self-identified Program planned groups by pros – months in advance Doing what they Strangers want – their recruited decision Scheduled by When they want pros – months in - often last advance minute At a fixed location – often in inexpensive expensive spaces they find Leaders appointed/paid Leaders/volunteers by agency emerge from within group RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 55. Key Question – Key Strategy Question Has your organization made significant strides towards understanding and working with digital age consumers? Are you learning the marketing and survival skills already displayed by leading retailers and service providers. NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES Strategy Start playing with digital tools. Create social spaces for your stakeholders and/or link to the spaces they are now sharing – listen, suggest, participate, work together. RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 56. Facility Management – ongoing trends/challenges • energy management • waste management Sustainability • water management • environmental impact • disaster preparedness Risk • workplace health, safety and security Management • data protection, work continuity • ongoing budget issues and constraints Efficiency/ • pressure for cost reduction Cost Control • balanced by demand for quality service • largest collection of aging buildings Aging • deferred maintenance/underfunded PM Buildings • poor fit with changing demand/new work styles • new facilities vs. facility reinvestment • aging workforce HR Challenges • workforce diversity • changing/difference work styles • mobile workforce RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 57. Facilities – big picture trends/solutions Link FM to Corporate Strategy demonstrate brand and corporate culture facilities as an effective component of overall business strategy Value Driven Design Facility cost effective, productivity-enhancing spaces Management flexibility built in – ability to change function Trends supportive of cutting edge technologies – Big Picture Integrated Systems Solutions advanced FM automation systems Building Information Modeling (BIM) Integrated Workplace Management Systems (IWMS) Change Leadership ability to handle increasing complexity, pace of change work with tenants/users to change on timely basis ability to support teams through change processes RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 58. Key Question – Key Strategy Question Are your facility management tools and processes up to date? Smart/integrated, green/sustainable, safe/secure, maintenance NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES Do your facilities have the flexibility to accommodate shifting demand patterns? NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES Strategy Develop and adopt a ‘best practice’ approach to facility management. Make ‘multi-use’ the default policy in facility design, development and management. Conduct an ‘opportunity cost’ assessment prior to any new capital investment. RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 59. Benefits Trends The Benefits Catalogue has proven that our work and services: are essential to personal health and well-being provide the key to balanced human development provide a foundation for quality of life reduce self-destructive and anti-social behaviour build strong families and healthy communities reduce health care, social service and police/justice costs are a significant economic generator and that green spaces are essential to environmental and ecological wellbeing, even survival. RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 60. Health Benefits/Challenges in general, the % of Canadians who rate their health as excellent or very Recreation, active good is decreasing living, sport, arts, the trend in killer diseases is up – culture and parks particularly cancer are essential to Diabetes rates are rising dramatically personal health Obesity rates are rising at an alarming – recreation is a key rate determinant of more teenagers are reporting health health status. problems good news for rates of depression and circulatory disease. RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 61. Human Development Benefits/Challenges in general, public education is struggling financially and being forced back to basics Recreation, active extra-curricular activities have been living, sport, arts, on the decline for some time culture and parks colleges and universities are shifting are key to to increased focus on professional balanced human preparation development – companies are being forced to cut helping back on training and development Canadians reach leisure learning is less common – for their potential replaced by focus on specific activities or skill sets note growth in demand for experiential learning through travel and tourism. RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 62. Quality of Life Benefits/Challenges The Institute of Well-Being has created a Canadian Index of Wellbeing (CIW) – a composite considering: Standard of living Recreation, active Our health Quality of our environment’ living, sport, arts, Education and skill levels culture, parks and The way we use our time The vitality of our communities greenspace are Participation in the democratic process essential to State of our arts, culture and recreation. quality of life and Early work looking at 1994-2008 shows a sense of place. that our GDP is increasing at a much faster rate than our overall wellbeing or quality of life. Public surveys show increasing interest in and commitment to pursuit of quality of life RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 63. Self-Destructive and Anti-Social Behaviour decline in substance abuse rates decline in depression rates Recreation, sport, decline in crime rates – both property arts and outdoor crime and violent crime pursuits enhance Canadians are reporting higher levels of quality of life by perceived personal safety (e.g. walking alone after dark) reducing self-destructive decrease in percentage of Canadians experiencing discrimination because of and anti-social ethnicity, race, culture, skin colour, behaviour religion or language RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 64. Strong families and healthy communities reduction in % of couples with children increase in % of one-person Recreation, sport, households and common law living arts, culture and increase in #/% of latch key children parks build strong divorce rates steady individuals, increase in % of Canadians reporting a families and ‘very strong’ sense of community healthy belonging communities. The Institute of Wellbeing reports that the wellbeing of Canadians as measured by the quality of their relationships and community vitality is improving – based on rates of voluntarism, providing unpaid care and assistance, concern about others. RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 65. Economic Benefits/Challenges obvious economic downturn unemployment and underemployment Recreation, sport, rates up arts, culture and some improvement in poverty rates parks are delayed retirement imperative significant Tourism (our sister industry) economic experiencing significant downturn – generators in security, health and economic issues your community. Canadians on average are better off – but income and wealth inequality increasing the social safety net continues to fray, providing less support for the disadvantaged. RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 66. Environmental Benefits/Challenges increasing public concern about the environment % land in protected status increasing Parks, open spaces, natural areas and gradual improvements in water and air pollution levels green spaces are essential to loss of biodiversity continues – # species at risk increasing environmental wellbeing and poor international national record re. climate change, ozone depletion, ecological energy use, waste management and survival. pesticide/fertilizer utilization RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 67. Pay now (prevention) or pay more later … Total expenditure, all levels of government - $ millions 120,000 100,000 Recreation/Culture 80,000 Health Social Services 60,000 Protection Environment 40,000 Education 20,000 0 1988 2004 RETHINK (West) Inc. Kitchen and Slack, Trends in Public Finance in Canada
  • 68. Key Question – Key Strategy Question Is your organization committed to improving health, human development, social/community, economic and environmental outcomes for the community it serves. NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES Strategy Review your policies and plans to position your ability and capacity to deliver the benefits/outcomes that are important to your community. Leverage your resources through strategic alliances with health, social service, education, justice, economic development and environmental organizations. RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 69. Canada’s voluntary sector is in trouble … facing increasing demand and not meeting it threatened with ‘mission drift’ - focus on funder priorities struggling to respond to funder demands for applications, progress reports, and accountability measures facing problems recruiting and retaining staff - insecurity finding it difficult to attract volunteer leaders having limited success with fundraising and other revenue has little time for long term planning, effective FD, infrastructure modernization, or modern management systems dipping into its reserves to survive ($/HR) losing volunteer support RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 70. Voluntary Sector Indicators - Sport, Recreation, Arts, Culture Indicator 2004 2007 % change Volunteer Rate - % adults volunteering for sports and recreation 11% 11% - Average Volunteer Hours – Sports and Recreation 122 119 -2.5% Average Volunteer Hours - Arts and Culture 120 107 -5.8% Donor Rate (% adults) – sports and recreation 18% 14% -22% Average donation $45 $58 +28.9% RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 71. The New VOLUNTARISM declining numbers/availability of volunteers increasing dependence on a few - almost 3/4 of the volunteer hours come from 1/4 of the volunteers decreasing commitment - declining interest in long term roles in favour of short term projects/assignments diminished interest in taking on leadership roles - at both operational and governance levels most sought after volunteer experiences will be shorter term, personally meaningful, AND developmental RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 72. Community Belonging - Canada % population over 12 yrs. reporting a ‘very strong’ sense of community belonging 75 70 65 Canada Alberta Saskatchewan 60 British Columbia 55 50 2001 2003 2005 RETHINK (West) Inc. Institute of Wellbeing – ‘How are Canadians really doing?’
  • 73. Key Questions Are the volunteer organizations that serve recreation, sport, arts and cultural interests in your community viable, strong and thriving? How are your own volunteer participation rates doing? Is an intervention required, before it is too late for some interest/activity areas and demand is transferred to local government? RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 74. Key Question – Key Strategy Question Is the voluntary sector critical to delivery of recreation, sport, arts and cultural opportunities in your community? NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES Do you feel your organization is doing enough to nurture and support a vital volunteer support system in your community NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES Strategy Conduct a consultation on the health of recreation, sport, arts and cultural groups in your community. Work with community leaders to develop an appropriate response to significant issues/gaps identified. RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 75. CHALLENGES of Modern Management changing CUSTOMER SERVICE paradigm shift to OUTCOMES and evidence that results are being delivered INFORMED ORGANIZATIONS – others will be bypassed The AGE OF UNSTRUCTURE RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 76. Changing CUSTOMER SERVICE Paradigm FROM the old way TOWARDS a new era in the mail e-mail as we speak limited hours/availability 24/7 I’ll check with shipping next day guaranteed in our City/community anywhere in world this is what we have what do you need - I’ll get it we know what you need customers define service/product mass production - few options customized for niche markets acceptable quality assured quality planned obsolescence durability environment costs sustainable/responsible externalized consumerism I’ll get a decision for you I’m empowered to make decision RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 77. Shift to OUTCOMES/EVIDENCE FROM ‘service driven’ TOWARDS ‘outcome driven’ goals/objectives outcomes/ends CEO evaluated on efficiency are outcomes delivered (and efficiency) annual reporting of activities, reporting on difference made by services and budget organization popular program design evidence-based best practice performance measurement outcome/results based PM (as based in inputs, outputs, well as efficiency and satisfaction satisfaction) plan, market, budget and hire plan, market, budget and hire on for programs and services ‘promise to deliver’ ‘bottom line’ focus – least open to possibility that best way expensive way of doing to achieve outcome may require business additional resources somewhat alliances/partnerships (given isolationist/competitive similar outcomes) RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 78. The INFORMED ORGANIZATION linking files to understand optimizing support to decision- place, person, business, makers through ‘real time’ market reporting target market segmentation telecommuting to minimize informing staff team to office requirements and optimize opportunity and optimize staff QofL reduce risk/liability computerized learning to keep linking allied firms to mutual staff at leading edge advantage - ‘just in time’ virtual corporations to bring in 24/7 production service new expertise capability, linking time zones networking functional teams to outsourcing to cheaper share experience, information, environments fresh ideas minimizing staff support and handling subtleties of cultural administrative requirement diversity RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 79. Workstyle Shifts FROM TOWARDS responsive/rigid adaptive/flexible dependence on authority independence/autonomy trained responses/conformity initiative/problem solving replication creativity ‘stop action’ controls monitoring controls adverse to risk calculated risk taking regular scheduled hours flexible work patterns centralized decentralized isolated bureaucracy networked cyberocracy authoritative democratic managed individuals self-managed teams departments/units project teams RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 80. Key Question – Key Strategy Question Is your organization keeping up with the times, considering contemporary management, organizational development and customer service practices. NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES Strategy Work collaboratively through ARPA to develop a ‘Service Excellence Framework’ that defines best practice for the field and supports organizational audits and improvement. RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 81. Possible Trend RESPONSES ADAPT ADAPT RESIST RESIST WAIT WAIT • trend is • trend is • trend is favourable undesirable undesirable • monitor and • trend is favourable • monitor and • accept/build on the • find ways to • find ways to discuss implications • accept/build on the discuss implications opportunity change or change or • begin to think opportunity • begin to think • adjust – find ways reject the trend reject the trend about contingency • adjust – find ways about contingency to accommodate -- or redirect it or redirect it plans to accommodate plans this new reality to areas of to areas of • upwardly this new reality • upwardly lesser lesser delegate delegate significance significance responsibility responsibility RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 82. Strategy Overview/Summary Demand that our provincial and territorial recreation and parks organizations work together to develop and deliver an advocacy program to strengthen public and government understanding, commitment and support. Work with your community/stakeholders to clarify the values that will guide your services; brand your organization accordingly; conduct your own value performance audit. Conduct an informal audit of current programs and services to identify which population cohorts might not have access due to either time or financial constraints. Clarify related policies and make service adjustments accordingly. RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 83. Strategy Overview/Summary Consciously shift your investment portfolio to increase attention to growth markets (fitness, arts/culture, outdoors, home based) and take a more cautious approach to declining markets (sport). Review policies related to priority age cohorts to address needs, opportunities and challenges relating to an aging society. Develop a portfolio of marketable programs and/or services that are low cost and utilize readily accessible, multi-use local facilities. Develop a series of services that are designed to augment and complement the trend to home based fitness and recreation. RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 84. Strategy Overview/Summary Develop a collaborative plan to capitalize on the staycation trend. Partner with the tourism industry to develop assets that straddle recreation, sport, arts/culture and tourism markets. Position your organization as a critical component of the tourism industry. Start playing with digital tools. Create social spaces for your stakeholders and/or link to the spaces they are now sharing – listen, suggest, participate, work together. RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 85. Strategy Overview/Summary Develop and adopt a ‘best practice’ approach to facility management. Make ‘multi-use’ the default policy in facility design, development and management. Conduct an ‘opportunity cost’ assessment prior to any new capital investment. Review your policies and plans to position your ability and capacity to deliver the benefits/outcomes that are important to your community. Leverage your resources through strategic alliances with health, social service, education, justice, economic development and environmental organizations. RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 86. Strategy Overview/Summary Conduct a voluntary sector consultation on the health of recreation, sport, arts and cultural groups in your community. Work with community leaders to develop an appropriate response to significant issues/gaps identified. Work collaboratively through ARPA to develop a ‘Service Excellence Framework’ that defines best practice for the field and supports organizational audits and improvement. RETHINK (West) Inc.
  • 87. www.foresight-trendscan.blogspot.com RETHINK (West) Inc.

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