Aires, Advanced Intelligent Risk Evalutation System

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  • Boosting the accuracy of credit risk methodologies used by banks and financial institutions may lead to considerable gains. Default rate in Portugal has more than double in the past 5 years Similary in Europe NPL increase by over 25%, many as much as 50% 620 billion euros in 2009 For example, improving the accuracy of credit risk assessment models by only 1% may lead to a gain in banking sector of about 50 million Euros - in Portugal alone
  • Agreement to test AIRES within Finibanco B2B, SaaS and integration with SAS Miguel Cadilhe , Chairman of the Advisory Board António de Sousa , President of the Portuguese Banks Association (APB) has proposed a collaboration with IFB or ISGB (The training branches of the APB) Diário Noticias Publico Jornal O Sol
  • Client Benefit Fast, fully adaptable, performance and accuracy Commercial Benefits Cost Reduction Investor Scale Negócio que irá permanecer com alta procura ROI Of the team An experienced team, where the whole is far greater than the sum of its parts
  • . Market size in Portugal ~ 30 banks, 40 insurances, 10 consulting, 500 potential companies & Government . International: 1 000 banks in Europe. internacionais, insurances, consulting, potential companies & Government e união euopeia
  • Atenção João rever: $X M Market Today Concentrated in 30 major customers Distributed among another 500 minor ones No one customer has market power
  • Aires, Advanced Intelligent Risk Evalutation System

    1. 1. SummaryTeam 4 — with 10+ years experience in AI, Risk Analysis & marketing 2 PhD engineers, 1 PhD in Finance, 1 Marketing proProduct Accurate credit risk solution: help banks decrease # Non Performing Loans
    2. 2. Business opportunityBoosting the accuracy of credit risk methodologies will lead to considerable gains. Value non-performing loans - % Corporate Debt Default - Europe 250 Portugal 4.5 4 2008 200 2009 3.5 3 150 2.5 2 100 1.5 50 1 0.5 0 0 Germany UK Spain It aly Russia Greece 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Source: Issue 2 of NP E L urope, a publication overing non-performing loan (NPL) markets in Europe and the United Kingdom (UK).
    3. 3. AIRES Accuracy Classification Method Weighted Efficiency (%) Z-score (Altman) 62.7 Best Discriminant 66.1 MLP 71.4 Our Method 84.1Source: Vieira, A.S., Neves, J.C.: Improving Bankruptcy Prediction with Hidden LayerLearning. Vector Quantization. European Accounting Review, 15 (2), 253-271 (2006).
    4. 4. AIRES Solution
    5. 5. Portal AIRES today
    6. 6. AIRES - recent eventsPRESS INTERESTED PARTNERSDN (1 page), Sol, JN, I, S. Económico
    7. 7. AIRES benefitsClient Benefits Investor BenefitsAccuracy – better decisions ScalableEfficiency - Cost Reduction High growth potentialSavings of Capital - Basle High return and value creation
    8. 8. Market  $??? Market Today  Concentrated in 30 major customers  Distributed among another 500 minor ones  No customer has market powerBANKS INSURANCES
    9. 9. Competition SAS Sage Works 3i-Infotech Dun & Bradstreet Experian Equifax Credirisk Coface We use more accurate AI tools. Our user interface is more user-friendly Decisions based on more reliable and accurate information
    10. 10. 3,000 Financials Sales EBIT 2,500 Free Cash Flow 2,000 1,500 K Euros 1,000 500 0 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2014 -500 Capital Employed Capital Invested: Pay-back: 2 Yrs 2011 2012 Total Value created: 10 M€ Fixed Assets: 26 k€Equity: 200 k€ 120 k€ = 320 k€ Working Capital Working capital > 0Debt: 70 k€ = 70 k€ Requirements: 22 k€ Liquidity – positiveTotal 390 k€ Development: 342 k€ Debt ratio < 75% Total 390 k€
    11. 11. Team Business Director of IT Researcher Marketing Director ResearchJoão Carvalho das Neves Armando Vieira Bernardete Ribeiro Tiago Marques Professor of Professor of Physics, & Associate Professor Marketing and Management, ISEG. entrepreneur. Ph.D. in of Computer Business Ph.D. in Business Physics and researcher Science, University Consultant, Administration, in Artificial Intelligence Coimbra, E-Business Manchester Business http://armando.sairmais.com researcher at Specialist School CISUC.http://pascal.iseg.utl.pt/~jcneves/ http://dei.uc.pt/bribeiro
    12. 12. Conclusion A risk-free business is impossible.However, “risk-free” risk models may be not. Team experienced in the sector & prototype Product quickly in market & changes the market Market hundred millions & growing – BASEL III Competition manageable Low capital requirements high growth and value potential

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