CI 2.0 – Incisive Intelligence, Collaborative Innovation & a Bottoms-Up Approach to Getting the Upper Hand Arik R. Johnson Predictive Intelligence 2007 Development & Leadership Institute Princeton, New Jersey USA CEO & Managing Director, Aurora WDC Conference Session [email_address] Tuesday 23 January 2007

CI is About Better Decision-Making Strategic Decisions What Business are We in and Where are New Opportunities for Growth? Operational Decisions How do we structure those business units to most effectively compete for and win Market Share? Tactical Decisions Which customers are available to us and how can we convince them to select us over any and all functional equivalents?

Strategic Decisions

What Business are We in and Where are New Opportunities for Growth?

Operational Decisions

How do we structure those business units to most effectively compete for and win Market Share?

Tactical Decisions

Which customers are available to us and how can we convince them to select us over any and all functional equivalents?

Three Intelligence Trends Organizational Acculturation – Everyone in the Firm is a Virtual Member of the CI Team Corporate Governance – Board-level Priority for Ensuring Reliability of the Earnings Forecast (e.g. Vioxx impact on Celebrex) Disruptive Innovation – Predicting Outcome of Competitive Battles based on Product Strategy & Predictable Dynamics

Organizational Acculturation – Everyone in the Firm is a Virtual Member of the CI Team

Corporate Governance – Board-level Priority for Ensuring Reliability of the Earnings Forecast (e.g. Vioxx impact on Celebrex)

Disruptive Innovation – Predicting Outcome of Competitive Battles based on Product Strategy & Predictable Dynamics

Porter’s Five Forces Model

Impacts on Planning & Execution Your Company’s Plans and Execution Vision and Grand Strategy Strategic Plans Market Success Operational Projects and Programs Tactical Execution Other (More-or-Less) “Uncontrollables” Competitors’ Plans and Actions New Forms of Competition X Y Z P Q R A B C Indirect Competitors Direct Competitors Government and Regulatory The Economy Technology Market Trends Industry Rationalization Other Unknowns

Strategic Intelligence Principles of Defensive Warfare Only the market leader should consider playing defense. The best defensive strategy is the courage to attack yourself. Strong competitive moves should always be blocked. Principles of Offensive Warfare The main consideration is the strength of the leader's position. Find a weakness in the leader's strength and attack at that point. Launch the attack on as narrow a front as possible. Principles of Flanking Warfare A good flanking move must be made into an uncontested area. Tactical surprise ought to be an important element of the plan. The pursuit is just as critical as the attack itself. Principles of Guerilla Warfare Find a segment of the market small enough to defend. No matter how successful you become, never act like the leader. Be prepared to bug out at a moment's notice. -- Jack Trout Guerilla Small Players Finding market small enough to defend Prepared to bug out at moment’s notice Flanking New Players Moving into uncontested area Element of surprise Offensive No 2 or No 3 Avoiding leader’s strengths Attacking leader’s weaknesses Defensive Market Leaders Attacking themselves with new ideas Blocking competitive moves The Strategy Square

Principles of Defensive Warfare

Only the market leader should consider playing defense.

The best defensive strategy is the courage to attack yourself.

Strong competitive moves should always be blocked.

Principles of Offensive Warfare

The main consideration is the strength of the leader's position.

Find a weakness in the leader's strength and attack at that point.

Launch the attack on as narrow a front as possible.

Principles of Flanking Warfare

A good flanking move must be made into an uncontested area.

Tactical surprise ought to be an important element of the plan.

The pursuit is just as critical as the attack itself.

Principles of Guerilla Warfare

Find a segment of the market small enough to defend.

No matter how successful you become, never act like the leader.

Be prepared to bug out at a moment's notice.

-- Jack Trout

Guerilla

Small Players

Finding market small enough to defend

Prepared to bug out at moment’s notice

Flanking

New Players

Moving into uncontested area

Element of surprise

Offensive

No 2 or No 3

Avoiding leader’s strengths

Attacking leader’s weaknesses

Defensive

Market Leaders

Attacking themselves with new ideas

Blocking competitive moves

Growth Vector Analysis Growth Vector Analysis (GVA) reviews the different product alternatives available to the firm in relation to its market options, not already being pursued by competitors. Four complimentary characteristics are used for defining common threads of strategy: Product-Market Scope specifies particular industries to which a firm confines its position. Growth Vector indicates the direction a firm is moving relative to current product-market posture (market penetration, market development, product development and diversification). Competitive Advantage defined as particular properties of individual product markets conveying a strong market position. Synergy is the combined effect on the firm’s resources that is greater than the sum of its parts. Present Products Improved Products New Products Existing Market Market Penetration Product Extension Product Development Expanded Market Market Extension Market Segmentation / Product Differentiation Product Development / Market Extension New Market Market Development Product/Service Extension & Market Development Diversification

Growth Vector Analysis (GVA) reviews the different product alternatives available to the firm in relation to its market options, not already being pursued by competitors. Four complimentary characteristics are used for defining common threads of strategy:

Product-Market Scope specifies particular industries to which a firm confines its position.

Growth Vector indicates the direction a firm is moving relative to current product-market posture (market penetration, market development, product development and diversification).

Competitive Advantage defined as particular properties of individual product markets conveying a strong market position.

Synergy is the combined effect on the firm’s resources that is greater than the sum of its parts.

Traditional CI Follows a Disciplined Process for Information Collection and Analysis Deliver, Inform & Recommend Planning & Direction Secondary Research Analysis & Production Primary Research Tactical Users & Strategic Decision Makers Needs The Traditional CI Cycle

Key Intelligence Topics (KITs) Process of Interactive Dialog with Decision-Makers through KIT Interviews; Consists of 3 Protocols w/Subtle Differences: Strategic Decisions/Issues Key Marketplace Players Early-Warning Topics

Process of Interactive Dialog with Decision-Makers through KIT Interviews; Consists of 3 Protocols w/Subtle Differences:

Strategic Decisions/Issues

Key Marketplace Players

Early-Warning Topics

Two Fundamental Competitive Analysis Model Examples SWOT Analysis Core Competence

Tactical CI Project Example: Cost Analysis

Level of CI Involvement in M&A Stage ID Evaluate Due Consum- Criteria Targets Analyze Diligence Recommend Negotiation mation Integration Level of CI Involvement High Low Intelligence Research Business Units Finance Technical Assessment Legal Executives M&A Specialists Transition Team Logistics HR

Seven Steps to Effective Competitive Benchmarking Determine functional areas within your operation to be benchmarked . This is likely to be those areas that will benefit most from the benchmarking process, based upon the cost, importance and potential of changes following the study. Identify the key factors and variables with which to measure those functions. Two general forms – wherewithal/resources and goals/strategy. Select the best-in-class companies for each area to be benchmarked -- those companies that perform each function at the lowest cost, with the highest degree of customer satisfaction, etc. The companies you select will be those that do whatever you’re measuring better than you do and/or are ones you wish to emulate or copy. Measure performance of the comparison companies for each benchmark being considered. Measure your own performance for each variable and begin comparing the results in an "apples-to-apples" format to determine the gap between your firm and the best-in-class examples. Specify programs and actions to meet and surpass the competition based on a plan developed to enhance those areas that show potential for compliment. Implement your improvement program by setting specific improvement targets and deadlines, and by developing a monitoring process to review and update the analysis over time. This will also form the basis for ongoing monitoring, revision and recalibration of measurements in future benchmarking studies.

Determine functional areas within your operation to be benchmarked . This is likely to be those areas that will benefit most from the benchmarking process, based upon the cost, importance and potential of changes following the study.

Identify the key factors and variables with which to measure those functions. Two general forms – wherewithal/resources and goals/strategy.

Select the best-in-class companies for each area to be benchmarked -- those companies that perform each function at the lowest cost, with the highest degree of customer satisfaction, etc. The companies you select will be those that do whatever you’re measuring better than you do and/or are ones you wish to emulate or copy.

Measure performance of the comparison companies for each benchmark being considered.

Measure your own performance for each variable and begin comparing the results in an "apples-to-apples" format to determine the gap between your firm and the best-in-class examples.

Specify programs and actions to meet and surpass the competition based on a plan developed to enhance those areas that show potential for compliment.

Implement your improvement program by setting specific improvement targets and deadlines, and by developing a monitoring process to review and update the analysis over time. This will also form the basis for ongoing monitoring, revision and recalibration of measurements in future benchmarking studies.

Competitors, Customers & Technologies Are Complex Interdependencies CI is Learning to See Clearly through Market Illusions

The Duality of Intelligence Both Decisive & Incisive Sensing Incisive Scanning for Trends, there is no “Decision” to be made Recognizing “Pattern Vectors” Framework for Interpretation Implications for the Reader Bottom-Up Driven by Trends Outcome is Observation Hypothetical Decisive Frame of Reference is the Decision, Less Trend-Dependent Framework for Analysis Compares Options & Outcomes Recommendations and Trust Top-Down Driven by Issues Decision & Action vs. ‘Nariyuki’ Factual

Different Missions, Different Approaches Specialist Slower Production Less Output, More Analytical Agenda Driven by Contact Network Lots of Subject Matter Knowledge Seeks Explanation of the Subject Investigative Very Slow, Curious, Historical Little Output, Highly Analytical Questions Official Positions, Listens to Nonspokesmen Operates Outside Routine Agenda of the Publisher Generalist In a Hurry Lots of Output, Less Analytical Agenda Driven by the Publisher Little Knowledge of Subject Matter Seeks Volume of Public Interest

The Insight Method Take Nothing at Face Value Get to the Facts at the Heart of an Issue Explain Difficult Concepts, Don’t Write Around It Speak to As Many Relevant People as Possible Use Simple, Obvious Questions to Open Subjects Don’t Echo Main Source, Find Other Views Every Company, Person & Issue Has a History that Drives Behavior Today Sunday Times

Take Nothing at Face Value

Get to the Facts at the Heart of an Issue

Explain Difficult Concepts, Don’t Write Around It

Speak to As Many Relevant People as Possible

Use Simple, Obvious Questions to Open Subjects

Don’t Echo Main Source, Find Other Views

Every Company, Person & Issue Has a History that Drives Behavior Today

Sunday Times

The Ideal Analyst = Investigative Journalist e.g. Maria Bartiromo (CNBC) Argument/Idea Evangelist Entrepreneurial Passion Quick Study with Intense Curiosity Instinctive but Empirical Project/Deadline Manager Librarian/Information Manager Hard-Core Interviewer Pattern Recognizant Great Communicator Persuasive Position Advocate

e.g. Maria Bartiromo (CNBC)

Argument/Idea Evangelist

Entrepreneurial Passion

Quick Study with Intense Curiosity

Instinctive but Empirical

Project/Deadline Manager

Librarian/Information Manager

Hard-Core Interviewer

Pattern Recognizant

Great Communicator

Persuasive Position Advocate

Success Breeds Complacency “ It is a classic conundrum for business titans: How much money and attention should be focused on a new, but growing, operation that is far less profitable than the core business?” - Prof. Clayton Christensen, The Innovator's Dilemma

“ It is a classic conundrum for business titans: How much money and attention should be focused on a new, but growing, operation that is far less profitable than the core business?”

- Prof. Clayton Christensen, The Innovator's Dilemma

Consumers “Hire” Products to Do “Jobs” for Them Concentrate Less on What Customers “Want” and More on What Customers “Need”

Disruptive Innovation Theory Sustaining Innovations Better Products Brought to Established Markets Low-End Disruptions Target Overshot Customers with a Lower Cost Business Model New-Market Disruption Compete Against Nonconsumption Difference Performance Measure Time Nonconsumers or Nonconsuming Contexts Performance

Disruptive Technology

Value Chain Evolution Theory Disruptive Business Models: Vertically Integrating VC to Improve What’s “Not Good Enough” in the company’s products and services judged by customers. Performance Defining Subsystems: Companies must control all those activities and combinations of activities in the value chain that drive the product performance characteristics that matter most to customers. Specialists will seek to control performance drivers based on differences in motivation and skills around a modular interface in the VC. (Sword & Shield)

Disruptive Business Models: Vertically Integrating VC to Improve What’s “Not Good Enough” in the company’s products and services judged by customers.

Performance Defining Subsystems: Companies must control all those activities and combinations of activities in the value chain that drive the product performance characteristics that matter most to customers.

Specialists will seek to control performance drivers based on differences in motivation and skills around a modular interface in the VC. (Sword & Shield)

RPV Theory: Building Capabilities Processes Ways to Turn Resources into Products/Services Hiring/Training Product Dev. Manufacturing Budgeting Research Values Prioritization Criteria for Decision-Making Cost Structure Income Statement Customer Demand Opp. Size Ethics Resources Assets the Firm can Buy or Sell, Build or Destroy People Technology Products Equipment Cash/Brand/Distr.

Consumer Demand & Signals of Change Non-Market Contexts: External Forces (Government, Economics, etc.) Increasing or Decreasing Barriers to Innovation Undershot Consumers: Opportunities for Up-Market Sustaining Innovations Overshot Consumers: Opportunities for Low-End Disruption, Shifting Profits by Specialist Displacements (Modularity) and the Emergence of Rules Non-Consumers: Opportunities for New Market Disruptive Growth Established Companies almost always Lose to Disruptive Innovators

Non-Market Contexts: External Forces (Government, Economics, etc.) Increasing or Decreasing Barriers to Innovation

Undershot Consumers: Opportunities for Up-Market Sustaining Innovations

Overshot Consumers: Opportunities for Low-End Disruption, Shifting Profits by Specialist Displacements (Modularity) and the Emergence of Rules

Non-Consumers: Opportunities for New Market Disruptive Growth

Process of Predicting Industry Change Signals of Change Strategic Choices Influencing Success Likely Outcome of Competitive Battles

The CI Think Tank Model TASKING > SENSING > INTERPRETATION

Questions or Comments? www.AuroraWDC.com Arik R. Johnson Intelligence Development Institute [email_address] +01-715-720-1616 Derek L. Johnson Research & Analysis Bureau [email_address] +01-608-268-3470

www.AuroraWDC.com