Collaborative Analytics & Insights: Uniting Strategy
with Organizational Reconnaissance to Anticipate
Industry Change
Comp...
Stochasm

The difference between what you think
you know and what you actually know.
3
THE BLACK SWAN
The Impact of the
Highly Improbable
The human mind suffers from three ailments as it comes into
contact wit...
U.S. Intelligence Community
Failed to Evolve
Unexpected new threats
from non-traditional enemies
like al Qaeda emerged on ...
THE STARFISH & THE SPIDER

The Unstoppable Power of Leaderless
Organizations
Although spiders and starfish may look alike,...
Unsound Strategy, Policy and Decisions are the Product of an Intelligence
Agenda Dictated from Above
Marshall McLuhan
“I don’t know who discovered water, but it wasn’t a fish.”

Strategy is concerned with what the corporati...
Strategy should be a
Response to Intelligence
Not the other way around…
Three Key Business Trends Driving Intelligence Evolution
Human Capital & Enterprise Collaboration
Everyone in the Firm bec...
Intelligence 2.0

The Era of Asymmetric Interpretation
•

Intelligence 1.0 was about acquiring short-lived information adv...
Intelligence 2.0

Asymmetric Interpretation Depends on Both Decisive & Incisive Sensing

Decisive

Incisive

Frame of Refe...
Dr. Craig S. Fleisher
16
Key Intelligence Topics (KITs)
Process of Interactive Dialog with Decision-Makers
through KIT Interviews
Consists of 3 Pro...
KITs – Strategic Issues
 Strategic Investment Decisions: Identify and assess changes in the










competitive...
KITs – Key Players
 Context-specific Company & Market Profile Assessments of our competitors,











includi...
KITs – Early Warning
 Potential Areas for Disruptive Technological Breakthrough that could









dramatically ...
Success Breeds Complacency
“It is a classic conundrum for business titans: How much
money and attention should be focused ...
Disruptive Innovation Theory
Performance

Sustaining Innovations
Better Products Brought to
Established Markets

Differenc...
Customer Demand & Signals of Change
1.

2.

3.

4.

Non-Market Contexts: External Forces (Government, Economics,
etc.) Inc...
Signals
of
Change

Likely Outcome of

Strategic Choices

Competitive

Influencing

Battles

Success

Intelligence 2.0 Enga...
Competing head-to-head can be cutthroat
especially when markets are flat or growing
slowly.
Managers caught in this kind o...
Collaborative Insights Team
Why Wargames?
Decision / Selection Map is used to identify:
•Customer needs/wants
•Which competitor represents the most se...
Wargame Example - Strategic
Industry
Company size
Planning level
Wargame Purpose
Wargame Outcome

Consumer Products
Fortun...
Wargame Example - Tactical
Industry
Company size
Planning level
Wargame Purpose

Wargame Outcome

Pharma/Biotech
Fortune 5...
After Action Sample: Using a
Decision / Selection Map
This critical tool helps the competitor teams clarify the most
This ...
After Action Sample:
Key Issues and Outcomes
The issues highlighted below were derived from our Contribution // Feasibilit...
Contribution / Feasibility Grid Example
•

•

•

The following 2 slides show an example of how we begin 
the Planning Roun...
Contribution / Feasibility Grid
Scenario #

Scenario Title

Feasibility Contribution

1

Disruptive low cost systems for W...
The Grid

12

6

9

8

?
4a

3

13
32

5

10a

6

14a

33a

16
15

4

17

3

5
33b

31
21

11

2

10b

29

28

1

23
26

1...
Related Techniques
RECON
Intelligence Should Concentrate on
Five Domains of Business Problem Solving


RISK



EFFICIENCY



CUSTOMERS


...
RISK
Ensuring against risk to the core business is critical to making
sure there is time for investments in new growth to ...
EFFICIENCY
The ruthless cutting away of unnecessary costs in the value
chain is essential for a new market innovation stra...
CUSTOMERS
Companies become too dependent on their best customers’
input for signals about how they should innovate, but ne...
OUTLOOK
Traditional market segmentation based on demographic,
geographic or sociographic data are fleeting at best and ill...
NOVELTY
Differentiation is mandatory for all organizations to master and
new market or “novel” solutions to customer probl...
What’s Next?

Leadership to Act is
Based on Confidence
Intelligence Combats the Paralysis that
Accompanies Uncertainty
Fee...
Collaborative Analytics & Insights: Uniting Strategy with Organizational Reconnaissance to Anticipate Industry Change
Collaborative Analytics & Insights: Uniting Strategy with Organizational Reconnaissance to Anticipate Industry Change
Collaborative Analytics & Insights: Uniting Strategy with Organizational Reconnaissance to Anticipate Industry Change
Collaborative Analytics & Insights: Uniting Strategy with Organizational Reconnaissance to Anticipate Industry Change
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Collaborative Analytics & Insights: Uniting Strategy with Organizational Reconnaissance to Anticipate Industry Change

819

Published on

My closing keynote speech at the Business Forecasting 2013 conference in San Francisco, delivered Friday 18 October 2013.

Published in: Business
0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
819
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
3
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • {}
  • Collaborative Analytics & Insights: Uniting Strategy with Organizational Reconnaissance to Anticipate Industry Change

    1. 1. Collaborative Analytics & Insights: Uniting Strategy with Organizational Reconnaissance to Anticipate Industry Change Competitive Intelligence 2013 San Francisco California USA Thursday 17 October 2013 Arik Johnson Founder & Chairman, Aurora WDC Managing Director, Center for Organizational Reconnaissance
    2. 2. Stochasm The difference between what you think you know and what you actually know. 3
    3. 3. THE BLACK SWAN The Impact of the Highly Improbable The human mind suffers from three ailments as it comes into contact with history, called the triplet of opacity: the illusion of understanding, or how everyone thinks they know what is going on in a world that is more complicated (or random) than they realize; 1. the retrospective distortion, or how we can assess matters only after the fact, as if they were in a rearview mirror (history seems clearer and more organized in history books than in empirical reality); and, 2. the overvaluation of factual information and the handicap of authoritative or learned people, particularly when they create categories – or "Platonify." 3.
    4. 4. U.S. Intelligence Community Failed to Evolve Unexpected new threats from non-traditional enemies like al Qaeda emerged on the geopolitical stage in the vacuum of America's return to international economic, political and cultural hegemony after the end of the Cold War.
    5. 5. THE STARFISH & THE SPIDER The Unstoppable Power of Leaderless Organizations Although spiders and starfish may look alike, starfish have a miraculous quality to them. Cut off the leg of a spider, and you have a seven-legged creature on your hands; cut off its head and you have a dead spider. But cut off the arm of a starfish and it will grow a new one, and the severed arm can grow an entirely new body. Starfish can achieve this feat because, unlike spiders, they are decentralized; every major organ is replicated across each arm. But starfish don’t just exist in the animal kingdom. Starfish organizations are changing the rules of strategy and competition and are organized on very different principles than we are used to seeing in traditional organizations. Spider organizations are centralized and built around org charts; on the other hand, Starfish organizations tend to organize around a shared worldview or ideology. And the Internet has helped them flourish.
    6. 6. Unsound Strategy, Policy and Decisions are the Product of an Intelligence Agenda Dictated from Above
    7. 7. Marshall McLuhan “I don’t know who discovered water, but it wasn’t a fish.” Strategy is concerned with what the corporation wants to do in the world. Intelligence is focused on what the world wants next.
    8. 8. Strategy should be a Response to Intelligence Not the other way around…
    9. 9. Three Key Business Trends Driving Intelligence Evolution Human Capital & Enterprise Collaboration Everyone in the Firm becomes a Virtual Member of the Intelligence Apparatus, Better Engagement by Rank & File, Shared Visibility of Issues & Actions Corporate Governance & Risk Oversight Board-level Priority Ensuring Reliability of Management’s Earnings Forecast & Assessing Risks to Status Quo Business Model Disruption & Value Innovation Predicting the Outcome of Competitive Battles by Anticipating Changes in Product/Strategy Dynamics
    10. 10. Intelligence 2.0 The Era of Asymmetric Interpretation • Intelligence 1.0 was about acquiring short-lived information advantages (Competitive Advantage through Asymmetries of Information), though fleeting and risky to the firm's reputation and ethics. • The transition is now complete to an open source world of "info-glut" where assymetric information gaps are increasingly difficult to obtain and maintain and interpretation becomes far more important as everyone looks at the same corpus of data but sees something different. • Web 2.0 and Enterprise 2.0 pinpoint a shift in organizational culture – the “Facebooking” of the workforce means everyone in the enterprise can become a casually-engaged virtual member of the intelligence apparatus and should be instructed how to help most productively. • Intelligence will extend into aspects of organizational culture and workforce engagement – which I differentiate from full-time intelligence staff as “reconnaissance” – but centralized, specialist intelligence staff will persist and embed themselves into the domains of organizational problem-solving.
    11. 11. Intelligence 2.0 Asymmetric Interpretation Depends on Both Decisive & Incisive Sensing Decisive Incisive Frame of Reference is the Decision Scanning for Trends, there may be no Decision made Compares Options & Outcomes Historical Patterns & Anomalies Recommendations & Trust Implications for the Reader Top-Down Imposition Bottom-Up Exposition Driven by Issues Driven by Trends Product is Decision/Action Product is Observation Factual & Hypothetical Emergent & Skeptical Confidential & Proprietary Open Source
    12. 12. Dr. Craig S. Fleisher 16
    13. 13. Key Intelligence Topics (KITs) Process of Interactive Dialog with Decision-Makers through KIT Interviews Consists of 3 Protocols w/Subtle Differences:  Strategic Decisions/Issues  Key Marketplace Players  Early-Warning Topics
    14. 14. KITs – Strategic Issues  Strategic Investment Decisions: Identify and assess changes in the         competitive environment, possible future investments, including alliances, acquisitions, etc. Should we expand our current production capacity or build new capacity with a more cost-effective manufacturing process? What plans and actions must we take to maintain (our) technological competitiveness as compared with competitive alternatives? New Product Development and New Market Launch: Assessment of leading competitors and the status of competing technologies. How and when will the competitors respond and how could they affect our plans? Sales & Marketing Strategy as Positioning in the industry. Protection of IP and proprietary information and technology: Competitors efforts to acquire or undermine it, and are there others interested in it? Provide advice for developing the company’s ongoing strategic plan by assessing the role of risks and opportunities in achieving our business goals. Globalization & Outsourcing in the Industry: How/with whom should we proceed? International Market Development: Assess the current competitive situation and describe the most likely future situational scenarios.
    15. 15. KITs – Key Players  Context-specific Company & Market Profile Assessments of our competitors,          including strategic plans, competitive strategies, financial & market performance, organization & key personnel, R&D, operations, sales & marketing, etc. Identify Emerging Competitors, particularly those coming from different industries. Describe & Assess Current & Future Competitive Environment, including: customers and competitors; markets and suppliers; production and product technologies; political and environmental; and the industry’s structure, including changes and trends. New Customers, their changing needs and future interests: What are they and how are our competitors trying to satisfy them? Identify and assess new industry/market players, including: suppliers, distributors, customers and/or competitors, that are considering entry into our business. New Technology Development: Who are they and what are their plans and strategies for competing in our industry? Marketshare and Historical Growth Data, including that of our competitors for comparison. Management support for regulatory and environmental activities for decision making. Industry, financial & customer community views, attitudes and perceptions regarding the Positioning or Value of our brand, products and services. Perceptions by Financial & Investment Community of our Business & Industry
    16. 16. KITs – Early Warning  Potential Areas for Disruptive Technological Breakthrough that could         dramatically affect our current and future competitiveness, positively or negatively. Technological Process Developments affecting either production capabilities, costs or product development, and their uses by competitors and others. Performance of Key Suppliers - financial health, cost & quality issues, potential acquisition or alliances. Potential for Disruption in Supply Chain and Change in Industry Procurement Practices. Change in Customer & Competitors Perceptions of our company, products and services. Companies and/or Combinations of Companies, considering possible entry into our business or markets. Changes in international political, social, economic, environmental or regulatory situations that could effect our competitiveness. Regulatory Issues: near-term changes and deviations in long-term trends; legislative changes that could impact current regulatory status quo. Intelligence on Alliances, Acquisitions, and Divestitures among our Competitors, Customers and Suppliers: Understanding the forces causing them and purposes of each deal.
    17. 17. Success Breeds Complacency “It is a classic conundrum for business titans: How much money and attention should be focused on a new, but growing, operation that is far less profitable than the core business?” - Prof. Clayton Christensen, The Innovator's Dilemma
    18. 18. Disruptive Innovation Theory Performance Sustaining Innovations Better Products Brought to Established Markets Difference Performance Measure Low-End Disruptions Target Overshot Customers with a Lower Cost Business Model New-Market Disruption Compete Against Nonconsumption Nonconsumers or Nonconsuming Contexts Time
    19. 19. Customer Demand & Signals of Change 1. 2. 3. 4. Non-Market Contexts: External Forces (Government, Economics, etc.) Increasing or Decreasing Barriers to Innovation Undershot Consumers: Opportunities for Up-Market Sustaining Innovations Overshot Consumers: Opportunities for Low-End Disruption, Shifting Profits by Specialist Displacements (Modularity) and the Emergence of Rules Non-Consumers: Opportunities for New Market Disruptive Growth Established Companies almost always Lose to Disruptive Innovators
    20. 20. Signals of Change Likely Outcome of Strategic Choices Competitive Influencing Battles Success Intelligence 2.0 Engages the Workforce in Collaborative Sensing to Anticipate and Act on Industry Change
    21. 21. Competing head-to-head can be cutthroat especially when markets are flat or growing slowly. Managers caught in this kind of competition almost universally say they dislike it and wish they could find a better alternative. They often know instinctively that innovation is the only way they can break free from the pack. But they simply don’t know where to begin. Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne
    22. 22. Collaborative Insights Team
    23. 23. Why Wargames? Decision / Selection Map is used to identify: •Customer needs/wants •Which competitor represents the most serious threats now and potentially in the future •Which strengths should be emphasized •Which of our weaknesses will competitors exploit •What new needs/wants should we try to create Probability / Impact Grid is used to: •Ensure goals are aligned to those of key stakeholders •Highlight those competitor moves that the company should take action to counter and monitor •Create group consensus on the potential contribution that this planning effort would have, and the likelihood that we could make it happen 27
    24. 24. Wargame Example - Strategic Industry Company size Planning level Wargame Purpose Wargame Outcome Consumer Products Fortune 500 Strategic Company was looking to increase throughput from their R&D unit, which was not keeping pace with competitors on launching products. The wargame showed that it wasn’t just one problem that was slowing things down. As expected, the company’s risk profile played a part. What also became apparent was that R&D had no clear reporting format and ended up working on many projects that were either not likely to go to market, or were pet projects with little or no market opportunities. Understanding who their true stakeholders were, the BUs, was a key learning that lead to change. Deliverables Purpose Determined our risk profile was substantially more conservative than our competitors, and that this was unexploitable. Improve ROI of our R&D Consolidated R&D under the corporate umbrella, ending internal conflict for resources and reducing inefficiencies. Ch23. 28 Group consensus on using consistent measures to track market opportunities and
    25. 25. Wargame Example - Tactical Industry Company size Planning level Wargame Purpose Wargame Outcome Pharma/Biotech Fortune 500 Tactical Company was launching a product with new MOA into a crowded market. They were looking for ways to counter messaging from existing competitors before they launched. They also wanted projections on how long it would take to capture significant share. What the game showed was that it was unlikely that their new product was going to displace any of the existing products, given the safety profile and demonstrated efficacy. They were unwilling to play with price too much, and decided to delay launch. The competitor that “won” the game had production issues in the real world, and this lead to the company purchasing the “winning” product at a bargain. Deliverables Purpose Determined customer was more price sensitive than previously thought. Prepare for launch Wargame “opened eyes” about home team being significantly behind competitors in terms of safety and efficacy. Ch23. 29 EWI tracking set up because of the game allowed them to respond quickly when chief
    26. 26. After Action Sample: Using a Decision / Selection Map This critical tool helps the competitor teams clarify the most This critical tool helps the competitor teams clarify the most important needs and wants of their various customers groups. important needs and wants of their various customers groups. Unsatisf’d Need or Want Cost Portfolio Profile Ease of Client Uptake / Application   Convenience   Marketing Services / Support Customer Groups Comp Home Institutional R1 Corporate R2  Post-secondary R3 Home Finance heads R1 Actuaries R2  R3 Benefit Admins Home Processors Regulators Service Agents Plan Members Service Agents Plan members Retire admins Beneficiaries Service agents R1 R2  R3 Home R1 R2  R3 Home R1 R2  R3 Home R1 R2  R3 1 2 3 Satisfied 4 5 6 7   8                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         The Market Team took The Market Team took assessment of their more assessment of their more significant needs, by significant needs, by Customer group, and decided Customer group, and decided which were Drivers (more is which were Drivers (more is better), and which were better), and which were Satisifers. Satisifers. The critical point here is that The critical point here is that when you over-deliver on a when you over-deliver on a particular need or want, you particular need or want, you face diminishing returns and face diminishing returns and you don’t have the resources you don’t have the resources to address those issues that to address those issues that the customer has validated as the customer has validated as Drivers. Drivers. They then ranked each of the They then ranked each of the Competitors on how well they Competitors on how well they meet these needs today, from meet these needs today, from the Customer’s perspective. the Customer’s perspective. The Competitor’s job was to The Competitor’s job was to move the needle on these move the needle on these performance metrics. performance metrics.         9 10 11 12       Happy               30                                   30
    27. 27. After Action Sample: Key Issues and Outcomes The issues highlighted below were derived from our Contribution // Feasibility Grid exercise. The issues highlighted below were derived from our Contribution Feasibility Grid exercise. Key Issue Competitor Will… Our Response Defend lack of customer service data Competitors message this issue to  mitigate launch • We will set up feedback loop for representatives and customer  account team to gauge impact of lack of time-series data at  launch; share best practices on how to handle • Develop rep response indicating that several other recent product  launches did not have time-series data at launch Messaging • Tout their longevity in the product  class. • Claim our product is “too radical,”  untested, barely passing  regulatory review • • • • Competitor Increase in Ad Spend We expect that the incumbents will  increase their spend in an effort to  lock up key institutional clients • Leverage consumer demand for new retirement options • Maximize the impact of the news event around the availability of a  new class of product Feet on the Ground and Selling We expect at approval that there  may be some financial options  data that we won’t be permissible  in promotion.   • Right-size the new prods team to a competitive size  • Via the Blue Guide can we share product data that is still under  review • Ability to communicate regularly with speakers via intel network  wiki on relevant product data 5 successful beta clients Rivals products have had negative returns for 5 years cumulative  Educate on what is required and how to manage Can utilize heavier social media communication, particularly via  our large FaceBook and Twitter presence 31
    28. 28. Contribution / Feasibility Grid Example • • • The following 2 slides show an example of how we begin  the Planning Round, the most important component of a  wargame. Everyone is brought back to the main room, where as a  plenary group, we discuss the various competitor moves,  and more importantly, the actions that you should take to  proactively disrupt them. Once the group has reached consensus on what these  scenarios are, the Sponsors meet to select those that  they feel are most impactful and the teams head back out  to the break-out rooms to develop Action or Contingency  Plans to deal with them.
    29. 29. Contribution / Feasibility Grid Scenario # Scenario Title Feasibility Contribution 1 Disruptive low cost systems for WHO become a catalyst 75 2 2 Chief competitor drops price significantly ahead of schedule 25 3 3 Development of non-invasive solution 50 2 4 ABC seeks additional indication 25 4 5 FDA certification lost for plant in Ireland 75 1 6 50 2 7 Black box warning issued for competitor’s product in this therapy The Street expects us to gain additional indication within 3 yrs and we deliver 25 6 8 We convince customers that we are a front-line therapy 10 3 9 50 3 10 ABCs looses litigation to XYZ Healthcare reform makes price more important than function impacting our products 80 5 11 ABC acquires XYZ 10 3 12 ABC partners with DEF for worldwide distribution 20 2 13 Competitor locks in large healthcare network essentially freezing us out 50 ? 14 DEF acquires local India company 70 1 The above table has been truncated and sanitized to provide an example of what the exercise might look like. Those that are highlighted were selected for planning activities.
    30. 30. The Grid 12 6 9 8 ? 4a 3 13 32 5 10a 6 14a 33a 16 15 4 17 3 5 33b 31 21 11 2 10b 29 28 1 23 26 19 34 25% 2 24 25 7 18 1 14b 27 20 45 30 50% Feasibility 0 22 100% Contribution Code
    31. 31. Related Techniques
    32. 32. RECON Intelligence Should Concentrate on Five Domains of Business Problem Solving  RISK  EFFICIENCY  CUSTOMERS  OUTLOOK  NOVELTY
    33. 33. RISK Ensuring against risk to the core business is critical to making sure there is time for investments in new growth to start paying off. Maintaining a positive status quo by protecting the core is the chief role for managers in every business, with one caveat: good businesses can often be the foremost enemy of great businesses. Cannibalization of a company’s current market share should not exclude innovative ideas that might be foreign to the corporate immune system.
    34. 34. EFFICIENCY The ruthless cutting away of unnecessary costs in the value chain is essential for a new market innovation strategy to work. Create or build up that which is not yet good enough and diminish or destroy that which is unnecessary. Most of the unnecessary elements in the incumbent value chain have long-since outlived their usefulness or were never very important to customers in the first place.
    35. 35. CUSTOMERS Companies become too dependent on their best customers’ input for signals about how they should innovate, but new forms of competition usually present themselves at the current consumption market. The day your customers begin complaining about how complicated or expensive or difficult your product is, you should ask, “why was it good enough for them yesterday” and who has offered an alternative?
    36. 36. OUTLOOK Traditional market segmentation based on demographic, geographic or sociographic data are fleeting at best and illusory at worst and many decisions have been based on flawed definitions of the fastest growing markets. Defining the market by the “jobs” customers wish to accomplish is more helpful in defining fast growing target markets. Focus groups are often the worst mechanism of market testing.
    37. 37. NOVELTY Differentiation is mandatory for all organizations to master and new market or “novel” solutions to customer problems are often ecosystems of providers working together to produce soughtafter value. Companies must build a business model designed to test breakthroughs in the market more regularly but kill off those that do not work early on, so support and development resources can be allocated to those that do.
    38. 38. What’s Next? Leadership to Act is Based on Confidence Intelligence Combats the Paralysis that Accompanies Uncertainty Feel free to ask for help:       Email: Arik.Johnson@AuroraWDC.com Phone: +1 (608) 630-4242 Twitter: @ArikJohnson LinkedIn: http://linkedin.com/in/ArikJohnson Skype: ArikJohnson Web: http://IntelCollab.com & http://AuroraWDC.com

    ×