Presentation Outline Roberto F. de Ocampo Former Sec. of Finance Co-vice Chairman, Makati Business Club Arangkada Philippines Forum: “Moving Twice as Fast!” Grand Ballroom, Marriot Hotel, Pasay City 9:25-9:45 AM, January 26, 2012
Optimistic Start, Forecast 2010-2011
What We Actually Achieved: Economic Performance of 2011
How Did We Get Here? “Baby Steps” In 2011
Government Plans to Do Better
Global Situation 2012 Growth Forecasts
Moving Twice as Fast: Reforms And Recommendations
In the SWS November 2011 poll, 72 percent of Filipinos approved of Mr. Aquino’s performance while 74 percent trust him, while “less than one in 10 Filipinos [9 percent] is critical of and distrusts the President….
Original and Adjusted 2011 Forecasts Table 1 Financial Institution 2011 Year End Growth Forecast Revised Forecast INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 4.7 percent 3.7 percent WORLD BANK 5 - 5.4 percent 4.2 percent UN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC (UNESCAP) 5.2 percent 4.4 percent CREDIT SUISSE 4.6 percent 4.3 percent CITIGROUP 5.5 percent 4.8 percent HSBC 5.2 percent 4.3 percent AQUINO ADMINISTRATION 5 to 6 percent 4.5-5.5 percent
Remittances from overseas-based Filipinos have risen despite weak economic performance of big labor markets led by the United States and Eurozone economies.
Remittances surged to 8.4 percent in September to $1.74 billion from $1.6 billion a year ago on continued strong demand for Filipino workers in various parts of the globe. This brought the total remittances in the first nine months of 2011 to $14.76 billion, up 7.1 percent from $13.78 billion in the same period last year. BSP officials said the remittances as of September indicated that the total for the year could even surpass the projection of $20.1 billion, a growth of 7 percent from last year’s $18.8 billion. Officials said the sustained rise in remittances gave the country a chance to meet its economic growth (between 4.5 and 5.5 percent) target for the year despite the challenges from the external environment.
The Region has 60 % of the world’s FOREX Reserves yet, the region is slowing under tighter domestic monetary conditions and weaker export demand from Europe and the US. The slowdown is expected to persist through mid-2012, before a stronger recovery takes hold in the second half of the year.
2012 Forecasts (Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, September 2011.) Table 7
2012 Global and Philippine Forecasts Table 8 Financial Institution 2012 Global Growth Forecast 2012 Philippine Growth Forecast INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 4.7 percent 4.2 WORLD BANK 2.5 percent 4.2 percent UN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC (UNESCAP) 5.2 percent CREDIT SUISSE 4.6 percent 4.2 percent CITIGROUP 2.5 percent HSBC 5.2 percent 3.6 PERCENT
2012 National Budget (in million pesos) Table 9