Arangkada Philippines forum January 26, 2012
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Arangkada Philippines forum January 26, 2012

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Presentation by Former Sec. Roberto de Ocampo at the Arangkada Forum

Presentation by Former Sec. Roberto de Ocampo at the Arangkada Forum

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Arangkada Philippines forum January 26, 2012 Arangkada Philippines forum January 26, 2012 Presentation Transcript

  • Presentation Outline Roberto F. de Ocampo Former Sec. of Finance Co-vice Chairman, Makati Business Club Arangkada Philippines Forum: “Moving Twice as Fast!” Grand Ballroom, Marriot Hotel, Pasay City 9:25-9:45 AM, January 26, 2012
    • Optimistic Start, Forecast 2010-2011
    • What We Actually Achieved: Economic Performance of 2011
    • How Did We Get Here? “Baby Steps” In 2011
    • Government Plans to Do Better
    • Global Situation 2012 Growth Forecasts
    • Moving Twice as Fast: Reforms And Recommendations
  • In the SWS November 2011 poll, 72 percent of Filipinos approved of Mr. Aquino’s performance while 74 percent trust him, while “less than one in 10 Filipinos [9 percent] is critical of and distrusts the President….
  • Original and Adjusted 2011 Forecasts Table 1 Financial Institution 2011 Year End Growth Forecast Revised Forecast INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 4.7 percent 3.7 percent WORLD BANK 5 - 5.4 percent 4.2 percent UN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC (UNESCAP) 5.2 percent 4.4 percent CREDIT SUISSE 4.6 percent 4.3 percent CITIGROUP 5.5 percent 4.8 percent HSBC 5.2 percent 4.3 percent AQUINO ADMINISTRATION 5 to 6 percent 4.5-5.5 percent
  • 5-6% RP GROWTH TARGET FOR 2012
    • SOURCE: BSP
  •  
  • Table 2
  • Comparative Annual GNP of Some ASIAN Countries 2008 - 2011
  • Table 3
  •  
  • Fiscal Performance January to November 2011 (In Billion Pesos) Table 4
  • Growth Per Industry Value of Production Table 5
  • Table 6 Overseas Filipino Remittances  *     For the Periods Indicated       In Million US dollars                     Growth Rate Levels yr.-on-yr. Monthly Cumulative Monthly Cumulative 2011         Jan 1,476.90 1,476.90 7.6 7.6 Feb 1,500.90 2,977.80 6.2 6.9 Mar 1,616.50 4,594.40 4.1 5.9 Apr 1,615.90 6,210.30 6.3 6 May 1,688.20 7,898.50 6.9 6.2 Jun 1,737.30 9,635.80 7 6.3 Jul 1,715.30 11,351.10 6.1 6.3 Aug 1,670.10 13,021.20 11.1 6.9 Sept 1,735.60 14,756.80 8.4 7.1 Oct 1,777.20 16,534.00 6.2 7 Nov 1,783.30 18,317.30 10.6 7.3
  • OFW Remittances
    • Remittances from overseas-based Filipinos have risen despite weak economic performance of big labor markets led by the United States and Eurozone economies.
    • Remittances surged to 8.4 percent in September to $1.74 billion from $1.6 billion a year ago on continued strong demand for Filipino   workers in various parts of the globe. This brought the total remittances in the first nine months of 2011 to $14.76 billion, up 7.1 percent from $13.78 billion in the same period last year. BSP officials said the remittances as of September indicated that the total for the year could even surpass the projection of $20.1 billion, a growth of 7 percent from last year’s $18.8 billion. Officials said the sustained rise in remittances gave the country a chance to meet its economic   growth (between 4.5 and 5.5 percent) target for the year despite the challenges from the external environment.
  • Foreign Reserves Asia
    • The Region has 60 % of the world’s FOREX Reserves yet, the region is slowing under tighter domestic monetary conditions and weaker export demand from Europe and the US. The slowdown is expected to persist through mid-2012, before a stronger recovery takes hold in the second half of the year.
    • Other Economic Indicators
  • 2012 Forecasts (Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, September 2011.) Table 7
  • 2012 Global and Philippine Forecasts Table 8 Financial Institution 2012 Global Growth Forecast 2012 Philippine Growth Forecast INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 4.7 percent 4.2 WORLD BANK 2.5 percent 4.2 percent UN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC (UNESCAP) 5.2 percent CREDIT SUISSE 4.6 percent 4.2 percent CITIGROUP 2.5 percent HSBC 5.2 percent 3.6 PERCENT
  • 2012 National Budget (in million pesos) Table 9
  • Distribution of the 2012 Budget
  •  
  • “ THANK YOU”