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Argentina Debt Saga 
October 16, 2014 
© Aranca 2014. All rights reserved. | info@aranca.com | www.aranca.com 
Aranca is an ISO 27001:2013 certified company 
Page | 1 Griefault: It’s more technical than fundamental 
Adverse US court ruling pushes Argentina into default once again 
On July 30, 2014, Argentina defaulted on a payment to its restructured bondholders (USD539mn due on June 30) as its 30-day grace period ended. This is the eighth time the country has defaulted on debt repayment since it gained independence in 1816. Although Argentina was willing and capable of making this payment, it was not allowed to. Thomas Griesa, a US district judge, had barred Argentina from making interest payments to owners of its restructured bonds until it pays the holdouts (Elliot Management and Aurelius Capital) USD1.5bn. While the magnitude of default is not as alarming as in an earlier instance—Argentina defaulted on nearly its whole external debt of USD82bn in 2001—it casts a shadow on the country’s standing in the international community. 
Argentina’s 2001 sovereign debt default resulted in a ban on raising capital from international markets. With two successive exchange offers in 2005 and 2010, the government swapped its defaulted debt with 93% of their creditors, offering them a 67% haircut (33 cents to the dollar) on their bond holdings. However, a select group “held out”, seeking better terms; hedge funds Elliot Management and Aurelius Capital filed litigations for payment of full principal and interest. With US court’s ruling in their favor, Argentina could not pay their exchange bondholders without making a full payment to Elliot Management and Aurelius Capital. 
Debt obligations if RUFO clause is triggered Central Bank foreign reserves 
Source: Banco Central de la República Argentina (The Central Bank of Argentina), Forbes 
Argentina, however, is restricted by a Rights Upon Future Offers (RUFO) clause that is written into its restructured bonds. This clause, which expires on December 31, 2014, specifies that the country cannot voluntarily offer holdouts a better deal than its restructured debt holders. Doing so would trigger its RUFO clause, leading to full payment to all bondholders (shown in chart 1). Moreover, even after the expiry of the clause, a payment to Elliot Management could trigger similar litigations and payment demands from other holdout creditors, which Argentina could ill afford amid depleting foreign reserves (shown in chart 2). The deadlock between Argentina and the holdouts could not be broken, leading to the country’s second default in the last 13 years. 
Aftermath of default: government measures amid depreciating peso and increasing cash concerns 
Argentina’s foreign exchange reserve plunged to USD27.9bn at the end of September 2014, the lowest since April. Analysts estimate foreign exchange reserve may drop to an eight-year low of about USD22bn by end-2014 if the issues persist. The peso was also hit after people started converting it to dollar to protect their savings from an inflation of around 35%. The official peso has declined 23.0% since the beginning of the year and 3.2% since default. The black market peso has been hit worse, depreciating 32.1% against the greenback since the starting of the year and 16.2% since default. The gap between the two rates has also been widening, rising to 74% 
1.5 
15 
120 
Elliot Mangement and 
Aurelius Capital 
Other Holdout 
Investors 
Restructured Bond 
Holders 
52.6 
51.9 
46.6 
46.8 
42.5 
37.0 
27.7 
29.0 
Jan-11 
Jul-11 
Jan-12 
Jul-12 
Jan-13 
Jul-13 
Jan-14 
Jul-14 
In USDbn 
Chart 1 
Chart 2 
In USDbn
s 
Argentina Debt Saga 
October 16, 2014 
© Aranca 2014. All rights reserved. | info@aranca.com | www.aranca.com 
Aranca is an ISO 27001:2013 certified company 
Page | 2 
(currently) from around 50% at the beginning of the year. This suggests people believe the official peso would continue depreciating. On the day of default, Argentina’s five-year CDS spread advanced 1,322bps to a record 2,966bps. The spread had eased in between, only to surge again to an alarming level. 
Official Peso and Black Market Peso Argentina’s 5-year CDS spread 
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters Eikon 
Argentina is also on the verge of facing a serious cash crunch in 2015. According to the Bank of America estimates, the country’s net liquid reserves (portion of foreign exchange reserve readily available for paying debt) is expected to drop to USD8.8bn by end-2014. This is less than Argentina’s debt payment liabilities of about USD13bn due in the next year. However, these liabilities include USD6bn payments related to the Boden 2015 debt, governed by local law. The country has an option to roll over these debts in an extreme situation. 
The government is taking several steps to tackle this adverse situation: 
 Argentina’s Senate and Congress have passed a bill to make payment to the holders of restructured debt through an intermediary that does not fall under Griesa’s jurisdiction. Under the debt swap bill, holders of USD29bn in bonds under foreign law would have an option to swap their debt for new securities governed under Argentine law. New payments would be made through state-owned Banco Nacion instead of through current trustee, Bank of New York Mellon Corp. On September 30, 2014, Argentina deposited USD161mn in bond interest payment with a newly appointed trustee. 
 After default, Argentina has restricted the number of people who can exchange the dollar for the peso. According to the new rule, for purchasing up to USD2,000 per month, a taxpayer must have a monthly salary of at least 8,800 peso (USD1,046), up from previous floor of USD7,200 peso. 
 Argentina and China agreed to swap yuan worth up to USD1bn by end-2014. It is a part of a USD11bn currency swap agreement signed by both countries in July 2014. The move is expected to bolster Argentina’s declining reserve. The yuan can also be used to pay for Chinese imports. 
 Argentina is set to receive USD4.8bn (USD1.2 per year) in loans for social development from the World Bank through 2018. The World Bank’s IFC would also invest $1.7 billion in export-oriented private companies in various sectors, ranging from agribusiness, energy, infrastructure, and financial institutions. 
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May-14 
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Oct-14 
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Official 
0 
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1,000 
1,500 
2,000 
2,500 
3,000 
3,500 
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Mar-14 
May-14 
Jul-14 
Oct-14 
In bps 
Figures in Peso per USD
s 
Argentina Debt Saga 
October 16, 2014 
© Aranca 2014. All rights reserved. | info@aranca.com | www.aranca.com 
Aranca is an ISO 27001:2013 certified company 
Page | 3 
Revisiting 2001: Exports helped revive economy post-default, but structural issues persisted 
In December 2001, after three years of economic downturn caused by austerity measures to support its fixed exchange rate, Argentina declared one of the biggest sovereign-debt defaults in history. The following year, the government devalued the peso (USD/Argentine Peso = 3.36) amid rising unemployment and civil unrest. By end-2002, 57.5% of Argentines were in poverty, inflation had risen to 41%, and GDP (for 1998–2002) shrank more than 20%. 
Despite this, the economy recovered quickly. The currency devaluation increased the competitiveness of Argentine exports. The country recorded a large trade surplus as Asia’s increasing food demand (led by China) pushed up the price of soy exports. Rising demand for automobiles and other manufactured goods from Brazil provided further impetus to the country’s exports. 
Argentina has largely been a resource-based economy: agricultural products account for almost 40% of exports. With the country unable to finance imports or debt payments by borrowing from abroad, exports of soybean oil, wheat, corn, and soy complex (comprising beans, oils, and meals) products have been the main foreign exchange earner. 
Argentina’s trade data 
Source: Bloomberg 
As structural issues within the economy became apparent, the sustainability of this export-driven growth model became a concern. Populist measures have been an integral part of government policy, and huge subsidies are granted, mainly in the energy and transport sector. Much of the revenue earned from export taxes was spent on the government’s social and welfare programs, leading to a spike in inflation. To control prices, the government imposed export restrictions and held the exchange rate at artificially strong levels, effectively making imports cheaper, but deterring manufacturers' ability to compete internationally and driving down private investment. The rise in energy imports (caused by falling oil production) and decline in soy prices began impacting the country’s favorable trade position. 
Government actions involving seizure of private pension funds, nationalization of YPF (the country’s largest oil company), doctoring of inflation numbers, and imposition of severe currency controls (restrictions on the purchase of dollars) also dented investor confidence and increased capital flight from the country. Therefore, the country’s foreign reserves dwindled. 
Current situation not as grave as 2001 
Argentina’s current state is due to the same mistakes as in previous busts: uncontrolled government spending, heavy trade controls, and disincentives to foreign investors. However, the situation is not as grim as the 2001 default. 
 The country’s total debt under foreign law stands at USD29mn, far lower than the USD82bn it owed in 2001. Moreover, the actual size of its “technical” default is only USD0.5bn, unlike 2001, when it reneged on payments on its entire foreign debt. Furthermore, in 2001, the country owed the IMF and Paris Club payments worth USD9.5bnn and USD6.3bn, respectively. Since then, the 
11.7 
12.4 
11.3 
12.6 
16.9 
11.4 
9.7 
12.2 
8.0 
5.4 
2 
6 
10 
14 
18 
10 
30 
50 
70 
90 
2005 
2006 
2007 
2008 
2009 
2010 
2011 
2012 
2013 
2014 (till Aug) 
Exports 
Imports 
Trade Balance 
In USDbn
s 
Argentina Debt Saga 
October 16, 2014 
© Aranca 2014. All rights reserved. | info@aranca.com | www.aranca.com 
Aranca is an ISO 27001:2013 certified company 
Page | 4 
country has cleared its entire debt and accrued interest with the IMF (paying USD9.8bn in 2006) and agreed to settle its debt disputes with the Paris Club (USD9.8bn). 
2001 vs. 2014 Default Comparison Argentina Merval Index Performance 
2001 
2014 
Foreign debt 
USD82bn 
USD29bn 
Default 
USD82bn 
USD0.5bn 
Source: US Congressional Research Service, The Economist, Bloomberg 
 According to the IMF, amid falling foreign reserves and high inflation caused by loose macroeconomic policies, Argentina’s economy is expected to contract 1.7% in 2014 (2.9% GDP growth in 2013). However, the situation is not as calamitous as 2002, when the country’s GDP shrank 10.9% (after falling 4.4% in 2001). 
 Argentina’s foreign reserves at the time of the 2014 default stood at USD29bn, higher than USD15.3bn in 2001 (fell to USD 10.4bn by the end of 2002). 
 Argentina’s benchmark stock market index Merval has nearly doubled since the beginning of 2014 as people are investing in the market to protect themselves from a weakening peso and higher inflation. In 2001, the index fell 29%. Thus, overall sentiment in the equity market is positive. 
 In 2001, the Argentine peso was tied to a fixed exchange rate (USD/Argentine Peso = 1). In 2014, the currency has been steadily depreciating. With higher imports leading to a rising trade imbalance, the country needs to address structural issues within the economy to revive growth. On the exports front, while agreements with the sanction-hit Russian government are expected to boost food exports, the increase may not be significant. Total trade between the two countries is expected to rise to USD3bn (1.6% of Argentina’s total trade) in 2015 from 2.0 billion in 2013. 
 This time, however, Argentina’s energy dependence has been increasing. The country, from being a net exporter of oil (net petroleum exports of 400,000 bbl/day in 2001), now imports around 20% of its energy needs (net petroleum imports of 50,000 bbl/day in 2013). According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Argentina has about 27 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil and the world’s second largest recoverable shale gas reserve (802 trillion cubic feet). Despite this, Argentina has witnessed a decline in oil production due to a lack of necessary investments. With the government in desperate need of reducing its energy bill, Argentina needs to ensure the flow of foreign capital is not impeded by debt defaults. 
Research Note by: 
Aniket Mittal and Sunny Agrawal 
Analysts, Investment Research 
0 
2,000 
4,000 
6,000 
8,000 
10,000 
12,000 
Jan-01 
Apr-03 
Jul-05 
Oct-07 
Jan-10 
Apr-12 
Jul-14
s 
Argentina Debt Saga 
October 16, 2014 
© Aranca 2014. All rights reserved. | info@aranca.com | www.aranca.com 
Aranca is an ISO 27001:2013 certified company 
Page | 5 
ARANCA DISCLAIMER 
This report is published by Aranca, Inc. Aranca is a customized research and analytics services provider to global clients. 
The information contained in this document is confidential and is solely for use of those persons to whom it is addressed and may not be reproduced, further distributed to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. 
This document is based on data sources that are publicly available and are thought to be reliable. Aranca may not have verified all of this information with third parties. Neither Aranca nor its advisors, directors or employees can guarantee the accuracy, reasonableness or completeness of the information received from any sources consulted for this publication, and neither Aranca nor its advisors, directors or employees accepts any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this document. 
Further, this document is not an offer to buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. This document does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. The appropriateness of a particular investment or currency will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. The investments referred to in this document may not be suitable for all investors. This document is not to be relied upon and should not be used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. 
This document may contain certain statements, estimates, and projections with respect to the anticipated future performance of securities, commodities or currencies suggested. Such statements, estimates, and projections are based on information that we consider reliable and may reflect various assumptions made concerning anticipated economic developments, which have not been independently verified and may or may not prove correct. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy of such statements, estimates, and projections or as to its fitness for the purpose intended and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only and may change without notice. © 2014, Aranca. All rights reserved.

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Aranca views - Argentina Debt Saga

  • 1. s Argentina Debt Saga October 16, 2014 © Aranca 2014. All rights reserved. | info@aranca.com | www.aranca.com Aranca is an ISO 27001:2013 certified company Page | 1 Griefault: It’s more technical than fundamental Adverse US court ruling pushes Argentina into default once again On July 30, 2014, Argentina defaulted on a payment to its restructured bondholders (USD539mn due on June 30) as its 30-day grace period ended. This is the eighth time the country has defaulted on debt repayment since it gained independence in 1816. Although Argentina was willing and capable of making this payment, it was not allowed to. Thomas Griesa, a US district judge, had barred Argentina from making interest payments to owners of its restructured bonds until it pays the holdouts (Elliot Management and Aurelius Capital) USD1.5bn. While the magnitude of default is not as alarming as in an earlier instance—Argentina defaulted on nearly its whole external debt of USD82bn in 2001—it casts a shadow on the country’s standing in the international community. Argentina’s 2001 sovereign debt default resulted in a ban on raising capital from international markets. With two successive exchange offers in 2005 and 2010, the government swapped its defaulted debt with 93% of their creditors, offering them a 67% haircut (33 cents to the dollar) on their bond holdings. However, a select group “held out”, seeking better terms; hedge funds Elliot Management and Aurelius Capital filed litigations for payment of full principal and interest. With US court’s ruling in their favor, Argentina could not pay their exchange bondholders without making a full payment to Elliot Management and Aurelius Capital. Debt obligations if RUFO clause is triggered Central Bank foreign reserves Source: Banco Central de la República Argentina (The Central Bank of Argentina), Forbes Argentina, however, is restricted by a Rights Upon Future Offers (RUFO) clause that is written into its restructured bonds. This clause, which expires on December 31, 2014, specifies that the country cannot voluntarily offer holdouts a better deal than its restructured debt holders. Doing so would trigger its RUFO clause, leading to full payment to all bondholders (shown in chart 1). Moreover, even after the expiry of the clause, a payment to Elliot Management could trigger similar litigations and payment demands from other holdout creditors, which Argentina could ill afford amid depleting foreign reserves (shown in chart 2). The deadlock between Argentina and the holdouts could not be broken, leading to the country’s second default in the last 13 years. Aftermath of default: government measures amid depreciating peso and increasing cash concerns Argentina’s foreign exchange reserve plunged to USD27.9bn at the end of September 2014, the lowest since April. Analysts estimate foreign exchange reserve may drop to an eight-year low of about USD22bn by end-2014 if the issues persist. The peso was also hit after people started converting it to dollar to protect their savings from an inflation of around 35%. The official peso has declined 23.0% since the beginning of the year and 3.2% since default. The black market peso has been hit worse, depreciating 32.1% against the greenback since the starting of the year and 16.2% since default. The gap between the two rates has also been widening, rising to 74% 1.5 15 120 Elliot Mangement and Aurelius Capital Other Holdout Investors Restructured Bond Holders 52.6 51.9 46.6 46.8 42.5 37.0 27.7 29.0 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 In USDbn Chart 1 Chart 2 In USDbn
  • 2. s Argentina Debt Saga October 16, 2014 © Aranca 2014. All rights reserved. | info@aranca.com | www.aranca.com Aranca is an ISO 27001:2013 certified company Page | 2 (currently) from around 50% at the beginning of the year. This suggests people believe the official peso would continue depreciating. On the day of default, Argentina’s five-year CDS spread advanced 1,322bps to a record 2,966bps. The spread had eased in between, only to surge again to an alarming level. Official Peso and Black Market Peso Argentina’s 5-year CDS spread Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters Eikon Argentina is also on the verge of facing a serious cash crunch in 2015. According to the Bank of America estimates, the country’s net liquid reserves (portion of foreign exchange reserve readily available for paying debt) is expected to drop to USD8.8bn by end-2014. This is less than Argentina’s debt payment liabilities of about USD13bn due in the next year. However, these liabilities include USD6bn payments related to the Boden 2015 debt, governed by local law. The country has an option to roll over these debts in an extreme situation. The government is taking several steps to tackle this adverse situation:  Argentina’s Senate and Congress have passed a bill to make payment to the holders of restructured debt through an intermediary that does not fall under Griesa’s jurisdiction. Under the debt swap bill, holders of USD29bn in bonds under foreign law would have an option to swap their debt for new securities governed under Argentine law. New payments would be made through state-owned Banco Nacion instead of through current trustee, Bank of New York Mellon Corp. On September 30, 2014, Argentina deposited USD161mn in bond interest payment with a newly appointed trustee.  After default, Argentina has restricted the number of people who can exchange the dollar for the peso. According to the new rule, for purchasing up to USD2,000 per month, a taxpayer must have a monthly salary of at least 8,800 peso (USD1,046), up from previous floor of USD7,200 peso.  Argentina and China agreed to swap yuan worth up to USD1bn by end-2014. It is a part of a USD11bn currency swap agreement signed by both countries in July 2014. The move is expected to bolster Argentina’s declining reserve. The yuan can also be used to pay for Chinese imports.  Argentina is set to receive USD4.8bn (USD1.2 per year) in loans for social development from the World Bank through 2018. The World Bank’s IFC would also invest $1.7 billion in export-oriented private companies in various sectors, ranging from agribusiness, energy, infrastructure, and financial institutions. 6 8 10 12 14 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Black Market Official 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 In bps Figures in Peso per USD
  • 3. s Argentina Debt Saga October 16, 2014 © Aranca 2014. All rights reserved. | info@aranca.com | www.aranca.com Aranca is an ISO 27001:2013 certified company Page | 3 Revisiting 2001: Exports helped revive economy post-default, but structural issues persisted In December 2001, after three years of economic downturn caused by austerity measures to support its fixed exchange rate, Argentina declared one of the biggest sovereign-debt defaults in history. The following year, the government devalued the peso (USD/Argentine Peso = 3.36) amid rising unemployment and civil unrest. By end-2002, 57.5% of Argentines were in poverty, inflation had risen to 41%, and GDP (for 1998–2002) shrank more than 20%. Despite this, the economy recovered quickly. The currency devaluation increased the competitiveness of Argentine exports. The country recorded a large trade surplus as Asia’s increasing food demand (led by China) pushed up the price of soy exports. Rising demand for automobiles and other manufactured goods from Brazil provided further impetus to the country’s exports. Argentina has largely been a resource-based economy: agricultural products account for almost 40% of exports. With the country unable to finance imports or debt payments by borrowing from abroad, exports of soybean oil, wheat, corn, and soy complex (comprising beans, oils, and meals) products have been the main foreign exchange earner. Argentina’s trade data Source: Bloomberg As structural issues within the economy became apparent, the sustainability of this export-driven growth model became a concern. Populist measures have been an integral part of government policy, and huge subsidies are granted, mainly in the energy and transport sector. Much of the revenue earned from export taxes was spent on the government’s social and welfare programs, leading to a spike in inflation. To control prices, the government imposed export restrictions and held the exchange rate at artificially strong levels, effectively making imports cheaper, but deterring manufacturers' ability to compete internationally and driving down private investment. The rise in energy imports (caused by falling oil production) and decline in soy prices began impacting the country’s favorable trade position. Government actions involving seizure of private pension funds, nationalization of YPF (the country’s largest oil company), doctoring of inflation numbers, and imposition of severe currency controls (restrictions on the purchase of dollars) also dented investor confidence and increased capital flight from the country. Therefore, the country’s foreign reserves dwindled. Current situation not as grave as 2001 Argentina’s current state is due to the same mistakes as in previous busts: uncontrolled government spending, heavy trade controls, and disincentives to foreign investors. However, the situation is not as grim as the 2001 default.  The country’s total debt under foreign law stands at USD29mn, far lower than the USD82bn it owed in 2001. Moreover, the actual size of its “technical” default is only USD0.5bn, unlike 2001, when it reneged on payments on its entire foreign debt. Furthermore, in 2001, the country owed the IMF and Paris Club payments worth USD9.5bnn and USD6.3bn, respectively. Since then, the 11.7 12.4 11.3 12.6 16.9 11.4 9.7 12.2 8.0 5.4 2 6 10 14 18 10 30 50 70 90 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (till Aug) Exports Imports Trade Balance In USDbn
  • 4. s Argentina Debt Saga October 16, 2014 © Aranca 2014. All rights reserved. | info@aranca.com | www.aranca.com Aranca is an ISO 27001:2013 certified company Page | 4 country has cleared its entire debt and accrued interest with the IMF (paying USD9.8bn in 2006) and agreed to settle its debt disputes with the Paris Club (USD9.8bn). 2001 vs. 2014 Default Comparison Argentina Merval Index Performance 2001 2014 Foreign debt USD82bn USD29bn Default USD82bn USD0.5bn Source: US Congressional Research Service, The Economist, Bloomberg  According to the IMF, amid falling foreign reserves and high inflation caused by loose macroeconomic policies, Argentina’s economy is expected to contract 1.7% in 2014 (2.9% GDP growth in 2013). However, the situation is not as calamitous as 2002, when the country’s GDP shrank 10.9% (after falling 4.4% in 2001).  Argentina’s foreign reserves at the time of the 2014 default stood at USD29bn, higher than USD15.3bn in 2001 (fell to USD 10.4bn by the end of 2002).  Argentina’s benchmark stock market index Merval has nearly doubled since the beginning of 2014 as people are investing in the market to protect themselves from a weakening peso and higher inflation. In 2001, the index fell 29%. Thus, overall sentiment in the equity market is positive.  In 2001, the Argentine peso was tied to a fixed exchange rate (USD/Argentine Peso = 1). In 2014, the currency has been steadily depreciating. With higher imports leading to a rising trade imbalance, the country needs to address structural issues within the economy to revive growth. On the exports front, while agreements with the sanction-hit Russian government are expected to boost food exports, the increase may not be significant. Total trade between the two countries is expected to rise to USD3bn (1.6% of Argentina’s total trade) in 2015 from 2.0 billion in 2013.  This time, however, Argentina’s energy dependence has been increasing. The country, from being a net exporter of oil (net petroleum exports of 400,000 bbl/day in 2001), now imports around 20% of its energy needs (net petroleum imports of 50,000 bbl/day in 2013). According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Argentina has about 27 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil and the world’s second largest recoverable shale gas reserve (802 trillion cubic feet). Despite this, Argentina has witnessed a decline in oil production due to a lack of necessary investments. With the government in desperate need of reducing its energy bill, Argentina needs to ensure the flow of foreign capital is not impeded by debt defaults. Research Note by: Aniket Mittal and Sunny Agrawal Analysts, Investment Research 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Jan-01 Apr-03 Jul-05 Oct-07 Jan-10 Apr-12 Jul-14
  • 5. s Argentina Debt Saga October 16, 2014 © Aranca 2014. All rights reserved. | info@aranca.com | www.aranca.com Aranca is an ISO 27001:2013 certified company Page | 5 ARANCA DISCLAIMER This report is published by Aranca, Inc. Aranca is a customized research and analytics services provider to global clients. The information contained in this document is confidential and is solely for use of those persons to whom it is addressed and may not be reproduced, further distributed to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This document is based on data sources that are publicly available and are thought to be reliable. Aranca may not have verified all of this information with third parties. Neither Aranca nor its advisors, directors or employees can guarantee the accuracy, reasonableness or completeness of the information received from any sources consulted for this publication, and neither Aranca nor its advisors, directors or employees accepts any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this document. Further, this document is not an offer to buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. This document does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. The appropriateness of a particular investment or currency will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. The investments referred to in this document may not be suitable for all investors. This document is not to be relied upon and should not be used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. This document may contain certain statements, estimates, and projections with respect to the anticipated future performance of securities, commodities or currencies suggested. Such statements, estimates, and projections are based on information that we consider reliable and may reflect various assumptions made concerning anticipated economic developments, which have not been independently verified and may or may not prove correct. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy of such statements, estimates, and projections or as to its fitness for the purpose intended and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only and may change without notice. © 2014, Aranca. All rights reserved.