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Optimizing Uncertainty In Complex Industry Environment
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Optimizing Uncertainty In Complex Industry Environment

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  • 1. Aradhana Pandey Saumya Triapthi
  • 2.
    • Pay For Mistake :- Current crisis has imposed organization to improve their effectiveness of risk management. It is a time when organization cannot adopt “pay for mistake” , which is commonly adopted by most of the organizations in golden days of Economy.
  • 3.
    • Negative Outcome Approach:- The existing methods use the probability of a negative outcome to represent risk. Current representation of risk covers only one subcomponent of risk (i.e., the probability of a negative outcome) and leaves out another important subcomponent (i.e., the level of uncertainty concerning whether the outcome will be positive or negative).
    • Generic Solutions of existing Methods:- How to estimate the probability of a threat’s occurrence and the overall ISS risk, existing methods only provide general suggestions.
  • 4.
    • Events can be represented in both forms either positive or negative. Events with positive impact reflects opportunity & events with negative impact represents risk. This opportunity and risk can be framed into gain frame & loss frame. Decision makers base their verdict depending upon the frames and accordingly they select appropriate controls for risk avoidance and its mitigation .
  • 5.
    • But, variance in actual outcome from expected outcome of an event can create a new set of challenges for the organization. In this project , we are attempting to propose a model that will optimize and reduce the Uncertainty.
  • 6.
    • Specification of the Model Structure(Eventual Diagram)
    • Assessment of the proposed model
    • Determination of the Uncertainty and the overall risk
    • Realization of the Hypothesis- Management tool- Questionnaire & Polling
  • 7.
    • NON-PROFITABLE EVENT REPRESENTS RISK
    PROFITABLE EVENT REFLECTS OPPORTUNITY UNCERTANITY EVENTUAL REASONING MODEL EVENTS
  • 8.
    • After having a thorough understanding of different risk assessment approaches, we have tried to analyze the non-centered part of risk i.e. UNCERTANITY.
    • Uncertainty=1-(Probability of Gain Frame + Probability of Loss Frame)
    Hypothesis
  • 9.  
  • 10. Whether Uncertainty Affects Business Decisions
  • 11.  
  • 12.  
  • 13.
    • THANK YOU!!!

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