Optimizing Uncertainty In Complex Industry Environment

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Optimizing Uncertainty In Complex Industry Environment

  1. 1. Aradhana Pandey Saumya Triapthi
  2. 2. <ul><li>Pay For Mistake :- Current crisis has imposed organization to improve their effectiveness of risk management. It is a time when organization cannot adopt “pay for mistake” , which is commonly adopted by most of the organizations in golden days of Economy. </li></ul>
  3. 3. <ul><li>Negative Outcome Approach:- The existing methods use the probability of a negative outcome to represent risk. Current representation of risk covers only one subcomponent of risk (i.e., the probability of a negative outcome) and leaves out another important subcomponent (i.e., the level of uncertainty concerning whether the outcome will be positive or negative). </li></ul><ul><li>Generic Solutions of existing Methods:- How to estimate the probability of a threat’s occurrence and the overall ISS risk, existing methods only provide general suggestions. </li></ul>
  4. 4. <ul><li>Events can be represented in both forms either positive or negative. Events with positive impact reflects opportunity & events with negative impact represents risk. This opportunity and risk can be framed into gain frame & loss frame. Decision makers base their verdict depending upon the frames and accordingly they select appropriate controls for risk avoidance and its mitigation . </li></ul>
  5. 5. <ul><li>But, variance in actual outcome from expected outcome of an event can create a new set of challenges for the organization. In this project , we are attempting to propose a model that will optimize and reduce the Uncertainty. </li></ul>
  6. 6. <ul><li>Specification of the Model Structure(Eventual Diagram) </li></ul><ul><li>Assessment of the proposed model </li></ul><ul><li>Determination of the Uncertainty and the overall risk </li></ul><ul><li>Realization of the Hypothesis- Management tool- Questionnaire & Polling </li></ul>
  7. 7. <ul><li>NON-PROFITABLE EVENT REPRESENTS RISK </li></ul>PROFITABLE EVENT REFLECTS OPPORTUNITY UNCERTANITY EVENTUAL REASONING MODEL EVENTS
  8. 8. <ul><li>After having a thorough understanding of different risk assessment approaches, we have tried to analyze the non-centered part of risk i.e. UNCERTANITY. </li></ul><ul><li>Uncertainty=1-(Probability of Gain Frame + Probability of Loss Frame) </li></ul>Hypothesis
  9. 10. Whether Uncertainty Affects Business Decisions
  10. 13. <ul><li>THANK YOU!!! </li></ul>

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