" The Evolution of Benzene " by Churairat PTTAR

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" The Evolution of Benzene " by Churairat PTTAR

  1. 1. Aromatics Outlook<br />“ The Evolution of Benzene ”<br />31 May 2011<br />By Churairat Nimha<br />
  2. 2. Benzene<br /> Highlight <br />Part I : Introduction of Benzene<br />Part II : The Evolution of Benzene <br /> Part III : Conclusion<br />
  3. 3. Part I : Introduction of Benzene <br /> What is Benzene ?<br /> Where is Benzene come from ? <br /> Who is Consume Benzene ?<br />
  4. 4. What is Benzene ?<br />Benzeneis an aromatic hydrocarbon and one of the primary chemical building blocks for the petrochemical industry. <br />Its key characteristic is its unique six carbon ring.It is a clear colorless liquid with a sweet odor which is why it is called an “aromatic hydrocarbon”.<br />Global Benzene Capacity by Process Type<br />Benzene Source Flow Chart<br />Xylenes<br />TDP<br />Pygas<br />Heavy Olefin Cracker<br />HDA<br />Refinery<br />Crude Oil<br />Aromatics Extraction<br />Benzene<br />STDP<br />Reformer<br />Reformate<br />FCC<br />Motor Gasoline<br />Gasoline Blending Pool<br />
  5. 5. BZ Value Chains<br />45%<br />PS<br />1.00<br />Ethylene<br />EB/SM<br />16%<br />BZ<br />0.30<br />0.55<br />with ACN and BDE<br />ABS/SAN<br />27 Million ton<br />0.80<br />53%<br />4%<br />SBR<br />0.35<br />with BDE<br />Polycarbonate<br />0.91<br />Propylene<br />Cumene/Phenol<br />2.7 Million ton<br />Bis-Phenol A<br />0.48<br />0.88<br />8.8 Million ton<br />Epoxy Resin<br />4.2 Million ton<br />0.75<br />18%<br />Cyclohexanone<br />CPL<br />Nylon 6<br />Cyclohexane<br />1.05<br />0.93<br />13%<br />3.7 Million ton<br />4.2 Million ton<br />4.0 Million ton<br />5 Million ton<br />40 Million ton<br />1.06<br />Cyclohexanol<br />Nylon 6,6<br />Propylene<br />ADN<br />HMDA<br />0.53<br />Adipic Acid<br />2.5 Million ton<br />0.66<br />2.5 Million ton<br />0.74<br />Specialty <br />Intermediates<br />for Polyurethane<br />7%<br />Nitrobenzene<br />Aniline<br />MDI<br />1.34<br />0.76<br />0.60<br />4 Million ton<br />0.65<br />PO<br />53% of world BZ go to SM and a half of SM go to PS (Equi. 24% of BZ demand)<br />
  6. 6. Who will consume Benzene ? <br />Global Benzene 2000<br />Global Benzene 2005<br />Global Benzene 2010<br />Total Demand 37 MTPA<br />Total Demand 40 MTPA<br />Total Demand 33 MTPA<br />
  7. 7. Benzene<br />“ The Evolution of Benzene ”<br />
  8. 8. Part II : <br />The Evolution of Benzene <br />Evo I [ 1996-2000 ] : Prolong Low Margin Era<br />Evo II [ 2001-2005 ] : Every Cloud has a Silver Lining<br />Evo III [2006-2010 ] : From Heaven to Earth<br />Evo IV [ 2011-2020 ] : Come Back to Growth Mode<br />
  9. 9. Evo I : 1996-2000<br />World Benzene<br /> Demand additional<br />World GDP Growth <br />Tom yum kung crisis<br /> Crude & Benzene Price<br /> World Benzene Capacity<br /> additional<br />
  10. 10. MOBIL SELECTIVE<br />TOLUENE DISPROPORTIONATION PROCESS<br />Evo I : 1996-2000<br />Cyclar Process <br />1998-1999, Cyclar [Low Cost LPG is available ]<br />The Cyclar process for producing aromatics is unique by producing C6+ aromatics from propane and/or butane (BZ 350 KMTA)<br />The process was employed by IbnRushdin Saudi Arabia with commercial start-up originally planned for 1998, but in fact did not begin real commercial operation until late 1999, Closed in 2001, restart 2002 and Conversion to Propane dehyrogenation in 2008<br />MSTDP Technology by Mobil, 1995 <br />it was pursuing its own aggressive expansion plans on paraxylene and viewed the technology as a lever to attract JV partners. <br />In 1997, UOP announced a process called PX-Plus, which is essentially the Mobil STDP process. UOP can offer this technology because the patent rights to ZSM-5 have expired. <br />
  11. 11. Evo I : 1996-2000<br />Unit : $/MT<br />Economic Crisis in Asia<br />and Technology Change<br />: Average Margin (Spread Price) around 91 $/MT<br />Historical (1995-2000)<br />
  12. 12. Evo II : 2001-2005<br />“Every Cloud has a Silver Lining”<br />
  13. 13. Evo II : 2001-2005<br />World Benzene<br /> Demand additional<br />World GDP Growth <br />Dot-Com Bubble<br /> Crude & Benzene Price<br /> World Benzene Capacity<br /> additional<br />
  14. 14. Evo II : 2001-2005<br />Energy Policy Act<br />U.S. Gasoline : New Sulfur Content<br /> Regulation<br />U.S. Gasoline : Banned MTBE / Use <br />Ethanol<br /><ul><li>MTBE banned in 17 states including California, New York and Connecticut.
  15. 15. Require other blendstockto reduce vapor pressure - Aromatics (Toluene and Mixed Xylenes)
  16. 16. High cost of blending - Investment and transportation cost of Ethanol.</li></ul>Phase-in of sulfur regulations begin in January 1, 2004. Sulfur reduction and MTBE phase-out. <br />Require more reformate which contain zero sulfur, high octane number and low RVP.<br />
  17. 17. Evo II : 2001-2005<br />“ Every Cloud has a Silver Lining “<br />
  18. 18. Evo III : 2006-2010<br />From Heaven to Earth<br />
  19. 19. Evo III : 2006-2010<br />World Benzene<br /> Demand additional<br />World GDP Growth <br />Economic Crisis in Asia<br />(Financial Problem)<br />Hamburger Crisis<br /> Crude & Benzene Price<br /> World Benzene Capacity<br /> additional<br />
  20. 20. Evo III : 2006-2010<br />2008-2009 : <br />The Grate Recession<br />2006-2007:<br />Why did Price Remain High?<br /><ul><li> Production Outages </li></ul> 2.35 million tons of U.S capacity <br /> off-line in 2006 due to major <br /> hurricanes hit US Gulf Cost. <br /><ul><li> Gasoline Industry Impacts</li></ul> MTBE phase-out still effected demand <br /> for Aromatics octane<br /><ul><li>Global Trade Continues To Expand</li></ul> Relentlessly<br /><ul><li>Economic recession directly effected Benzene derivatives demand in automobile and construction industry
  21. 21. Demand loss more than 3 MTPA suffered from severe economic downturn
  22. 22. Massive of new capacitymostly in China more than 2MTPA coming on stream
  23. 23. Benzene spread collapsed free fall, once in a life time that benzene trades below naphtha
  24. 24. Economics expanded at all region </li></ul> Especially China economics growth at<br /> alarming rate over 12 % after joining<br /> WTO. <br />
  25. 25. Evo III : 2006-2010<br />2009-2010 : Why Benzene bounced back swiftly?<br />Weak Naphtha cracking margin pressured by new Ethane Crackers from ME<br />Weak refining margin<br />China’s Automobiles Sales volume<br />Light Naphtha()<br />Naphtha Cracker <br />Cut Run()<br />CDU <br />Cut Run()<br />Ethylene /<br />Propylene<br />Crude <br />cut<br />Short Supply<br />Heavy <br />Naphtha()<br />Typical Aromatics Plant<br />CCR <br />Cut Run ()<br />Pygas ()<br />Reformate()<br />FPU ()<br />China’s retail sales recovery<br />Heavy Reformate<br />Light Reformate<br />Sulfolane ()<br />Xylene Frac. ()<br />PX Supply()<br />BZ Supply()<br />BZ Margin()<br />PX Margin()<br />
  26. 26. Evo III : 2006-2010<br />Unit : $/MT<br />
  27. 27. Evo IV : 2011-2020<br />Come Back to Growth Mode<br />
  28. 28. Evo IV : 2011-2016<br />World Economy : Recovery - Growth<br />The market is once again back to 40 million tons. Beyond 2011, we believe thatbenzene demand will resume growth rates similar to the previous growth period.<br />Strong Growth in 2010<br />Growth By Derivative<br />
  29. 29. Evo IV : 2011-2016<br />Supply : Limited<br />Benzene Production from Europe go down<br />Benzene Production Per Ton of Ethylene<br /><ul><li> Olefins units around the world continue to favor</li></ul> light feedstocks which yields less and less benzene.<br /><ul><li>Refineries continue to struggle as petroleum </li></ul> gasolinedemand in large markets like North <br /> America and Europehas been lackluster.<br /><ul><li> The most significant drop is seen in benzene </li></ul> production from pygas. Since 2005, benzene <br /> production from pygas has declined by almost half <br /> resulting in over a million tons of lost production. <br /><ul><li> Why the loss? The shift to lighter feedstocks</li></ul> for ethylene Producers!.<br />N. America Benzene Production Suffers<br />
  30. 30. Forecasted Price 2011-2020<br />Unit : $/MT<br />
  31. 31. Part III : <br />Conclusion<br />
  32. 32. Benzene Spread Journey through time <br />Unit : $/MT<br />
  33. 33. Benzene Spread Journey through time <br />Evo I : 1996-2000<br />Unit : $/MT<br />New Technology<br />Asia Economic Crisis<br />
  34. 34. Benzene Spread Journey through time <br />Unit : $/MT<br />Evo II : 2001-2006<br /> New Gasoline<br /> Regulation in US<br />Environmental<br /> Disasters<br />Asia<br />Demand Growth<br />
  35. 35. Benzene Spread Journey through time <br />Unit : $/MT<br />Evo III : 2005 -2010<br />Massive New Benzene Supply<br />(CHINA & MIDDLE EAST)<br />Refinery Produce More BTX<br />The Grate Economic<br /> Recession<br />Shale Gas, and<br /> Refineries mothball<br />Stimulus Packages and<br /> demand from <br />emerging economies<br />
  36. 36.
  37. 37. Dynamic Forecasted Price 2011-2020<br />Unit : $/MT<br />Massive New Benzene Supply<br />From Middle East<br />The New Round of <br /> Economic Recession<br />New Environmental Rule <br />and Regulations<br />Natural Disaster<br />Technology <br />Breakthrough<br />
  38. 38. Thank you<br />

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