Economy Update August 19, 2011

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Economy Update August 19, 2011

  1. 1. Economy Update y p August 19, 2011
  2. 2. US Economic  UpdateConsumer Sentiment and Retail Sales   Housing Starts and Existing Home SalesEmpire Index and ISM Manufacturing • Demand Side – Michigan Consumer Confidence in Aug  Michigan Consumer Confidence in Aug drop to 54.9 (Jul = 63.7) • Supply Side – E i M Empire Manu Index was weaken at ‐ I d k 7.72 (Jul = ‐3.76) • Housing Data – Housing Start  in Jul dropped to 604K  from 613K – Building Permit in Jul also decreased to  g 597K from 617K. 
  3. 3. Bullish of Safe Haven Dow Jones Index slid   Swiss Franc   11,410 0.79 0.72 JPY   JPY Gold  Gold 1,810 76.58
  4. 4. USD Interest Rate Sharp fall 
  5. 5. Euro Zone Economic Update EU and Germany GDP EUR   1.437PIIGS 10 Yrs Bond Yields    • Yield decreased because ECB bought EUR 22 Bil.  bond in 2nd market. • On Tuesday, Franco – German summit caused  investors disappointment  – Didn’t mention about increasing the size of the  euro‐zone fund to bail out.  – It was too early to introduce euro‐zone bonds. • EU and Germany GDP Q2/2011 were weaker than  expect at 0.2% and 0.1% qoq respectively. (Q1  expect at 0.2% and 0.1% qoq respectively. (Q1 =  0.8%, 1.5%)
  6. 6. Thai Economic Update Business Sentiment and Consumer Confidence• Both Consumer and Business  sentiment index increased,  ti ti d i d resulting from the peaceful  transfer of power since the  p July 3 elections. – Consumer confidence  rose to 74.4, highest in 4  years. – Auto Sales rose up after Auto Sales rose up after  Consumer Confidence and Car Sales Consumer Confidence and Car Sales Japan supply disruption
  7. 7. Thai Interest Rate follow Market Trend
  8. 8. USD/THB Movement SET Net Foreign Purchase USD/THB • Thai baht trading has been  relatively stable, especially in  y , p y comparison with the big  swings seen last week.  Overnight there has been a  O i ht th h b slight strengthening bias in  line with broad dollar  weakness.

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