Transcript of "1.7 balance between population and resources"
Balance between population and
By the end of this lesson you
• Know the terms
ation and optimum
• Have studied optimistic and
pessimistic approaches to
• Considered sustainable
development with regards to
• 1) Why does middle age arguably start at 55?
• 2) What are some of the challenges faced by
China’s ageing population?
• 3) How do you expect China’s population
structure to look by 2050?
• Q. Complete spider diagrams or flash cards on
two case studies of ageing populations – Devon
• June 2011 5B)
• There has been a recent increase in population due to both
natural and migration change. Clearly the two are interlinked, although they have arguably affected population
increase at different times. The natural increase had
particularly increased the population in 2009 where
women born in Britain are having more children. This could
be due to a baby boom among women in their 30s, largely
due to better tax credits and maternity leave.
• Immigration had the predominant impact in
2001, particularly on the baby-boom as the age of the
migrants was predominantly at child bearing age reflective
of the age structure of migrants. There have been changes
over time with impact on increased population, and
without immigration the overall population would actually
• Chief examiner feedback:
• His favourite questions are to ask you to ‘comment’ on
either statistics, a graph or a picture
• He wants you to ‘think like a Geographer’
• He awards the top marks to those who can comment upon
• Another good critical word is ‘homogenise’
• Facts quoted only need to ‘ring true’
• Essays should be practised in 15mins to give realistic idea of
• To get the absolute top marks, evidence of independent
study should be there
• You can still get top marks without giving definitions in your
• Read page 68 and make your own condensed
Overpopulation, Underpopulation and
• Where do you think Mumbai would be placed
on figure 5.19?
• Where do you think countries such as
Australia and Canada would be on figure 5.19?
• Which do you think is more of a problem?
• Q. Fill the box on page 69
By resources we mean:
Food resources – indigenous crops
Technology resources – phone masts
Energy resources – solar energy
Pessimistic Approaches - Malthus
• Some scholars have predicted a gloomy future for the
balance between population and resources.
• Thomas Malthus in, An Essay on the Principle of Population
as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society (1798) is
one of the best known pessimistic outlooks.
• Population will continue to increase – geometrical rate
• Food supply will only grow at an arithmetic rate
• Will lead to famine
• Mankind MUST respond
• Q. What are Geometric and Arithmetic rates?
• Q. Can you think of any examples of Malthus’ predictions
coming into fruition?
Pessimistic Approaches - Malthus
• The UN predict that by 2050 45% of the
world’s population will be living in areas that
cannot provide the required 50 litres of water
a day to meet basic needs
• These are people that have since adopted
Malthus’ pessimistic belief
• Paul Ehrlich
• Global warming
• The club of Rome
• Q. Read page 72 on the club of Rome model.
Complete the exercises on page 76-77
• Q. Look at the graphs on page 76 and be ready to
verbally analyse them in front of the class
The Club of Rome Model – Group Quiz
• 1. When was the club of Rome model published?
• 2. What are 2 of the 5 major trends of concern?
• 3. What impact did the population growth
between 1900-1970 have on industrial and food
• 4. What is meant by the term overshoot and
• 5. What will happen to the population in this
• Others, however, have formed more optimistic
views about the balance between population and
• You need to know the theories of Boserup and
• Q. Read the information on page 74 and make
• Q. What contemporary evidence can you think of
to support either positions?
• Electric Cars
• In groups of 4, create an argument to argue FOR your
given approach and AGAINST the other approaches
• You must have stats and evidence to support your
• You must be ready to counter any arguments the other
group may have
• We will have a class debate
• You can use your phones to look up examples to
support your argument
• If you can include the phrases:
trends, anomalies, homogenise
Thomas Malthus: PESSIMIST
English. 1798 Essay on the principle of population
Population = geometric rate (exponential)
Food = arithmetic rate (same increase each time..)
Thus, people will outgrow food. Famine will occur.
Predictions occurred not in Britain as they had
• BUT Ethiopian and Sudan famines are evidence of his
predictions. They suffer chronic malnutrition.
• Esther Boserup: OPTIMIST
• Environment’s limits for resources can be altered
• We will always come up with alternatives to
resources when they start to run out
• Necessity promotes intervention
• Increase of shifting cultivation systems in various
parts of the world i.e rainforests
• Agricultural revolutions are the main evidence
• ‘green revolution’ – fertilisers, pesticides
The Club of Rome: PESSIMISTS
Have 5 areas of concern:
1. Too much industrialisation
2. Rapid pop. Growth
3. widespread malnutrition
4. depletion of non-renewable resources
5. deteriorating environment
Overshoot and collapse = there is too much strain on
resources they will run out.
• If this continues, population will decrease rapidly in
• We MUST take the environment more seriously, and stop
• Julian Simon and Bjorn Lomborg: OPTIMISTS
• Older scares have been exaggerations i.e
pesticides are going to kill us – but this have
• Another example ‘there’s going to be a low sperm
count and no fertility’….never happened…
• They believe that Technology needs to be
embraced to solve all these
problems, particularly Nuclear power.
• 1798 Essay on the principle of population and it’s affects on
• Population = geometric/exponential rate
• Food = arithmetic rate (more steady)
• Examples: Sahel famine in 1984, UN predict that by 2050
40% of people will not have access to enough clean water
• Predicts that when the resources become scare
homosexuality will become rife
• Also says lower classes should stop having children
Julian Simon – OPTIMIST
DID NOT believe theories predicted i.e. Malthus
Claims the ‘scares’ didn’t actually happen
E.g in 1970 it was claimed there was going to be
an oil crisis…actually, they’ve GROWN
• Other examples…elephants are going to become
extinct, sperm count is going to fall..
• All were wrong?! We are made to feel guilty.
• Has faith in renewable energies
The Club of Rome: (1972) – neo-malthusians
Came together as an academic group in Rome
Resource limitation will be reached in 100years and
population will rapidly decline
• 5 trends prove this; deteriorating environment, rapid
population growth, accelerating
industrialisation, widespread malnutrition, depletion of
• Overshoot and collapse – Industrial capital stock
• However, they suggests we could alter the trends if we
become more sustainable
• Esther Boserup: Optimist 1965
• Environments have limits, but these can be
altered by technology
• Talked about agrarian improvements
• Intense forms of agriculture will keep resources
• Pesticides, fertilisers are an example of
technology promoting food growth
• Home-made hamburger also an example
• Suggests population grows at GEOMETRIC rate, and
food grows at ARITHMETIC rate
• Therefore, population will outgrow resources
• Famine will occur unless population growth is limited.
• He predicted that people needed to change their
morals and actions in order to create sustainable living
• Malthus’ predictions have happened a) Sahel famine in
1984 and UN prediction that by 2050 40% of people
will not be able to access clean water
• Julian Simon and Bjorn Lomborg – OPTIMISTS
• Believe people are made to feel guilty
• E.g ‘oil is going to run out’ ‘we’re all going to die
from nuclear explosions’ ‘there’s a falling sperm
• Technology should improve living standards
across the world
• We shouldn’t really combat ‘climate change’ but
instead adjust/adapt it e.g rising sea levels
• Should tackle global disease
The club of Rome:
The system is going to ‘overshot and collapse’
We are going to run out of resources
Widespread malnutrition, rapid population
growth, depletion of resources, depreciation environment
• Must invest more into resources
• Investment can’t keep up with resources (i.e. resources
COST MONEY) but the more MONEY we need, the
resources become more difficult to gain
• Limits to growth will be reached in 100years :-/ this will
result in POPULATION DECLINE could be war, we will go
back to the start
Ester Boserup: OPTIMIST
With pressure comes adaptation
There WILL be higher crop yields (a green revolution)
Fertilisers, water control will all help this.
Conditions of Agricultural Change the Economics of
Agrarian change under Population Pressure
• Scientific inventions will help i.e the artificial burger
• (more) Contemporary
• Necessity creates intervention
• 1. What is geometric rate?
• 2. Give an example of Malthus’ predictions in
• 3. What do Simon and Lomborg suggest can
be used more to improve living standards?
• 4. In how many years will we have a rapid
population decline unless something is done
according to the club of Rome
• 5. finish the phrase ‘with pressure comes…’
• Q. Explain an optimistic approach to the
balance between population and resource (4
• Q. Comment on the balance between
population and resources in an area with high
population density (7 marks)
• Q. Comment on the validity of pessimistic
approaches to the balance between
population and resources (7 marks)
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