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APF Trading Technical Analysis Market Commentary 10 Jan 2011

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APF Trading Technical Analysis Market Commentary 10 Jan 2011

APF Trading Technical Analysis Market Commentary 10 Jan 2011

Published in: Economy & Finance

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  • 1. APF Trading TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 10 January 2011 Market Commentary Wi lma r I nt e rn ationa lAPF Trading Pte. Ltd.9 Battery Road12F Straits Trading BuildingSingapore 049910Jay Ngjay.ng@apftrading.comGlenn Hoglenn.ho@apftrading.comWebsite:www.apftrading.comwww.asiapacfinance.com Buy setup completed at the close of last friday following the TD Countdown 13 with prices respecting resistance perfectly. A perfected buy setup (indicated by the green arrow) increases the probability of a 1-4 periods, in this case 1-4 weeks of price correction. (price increase) Tenken Sen crossing below the Kijun Sen above the Kumo, a weak bearish crossover. Remember how the Kumo serves as support/resistance? Here the Kumo is the support for prices. Hence a bearish crossover is buffered by the Kumo. However please note that the depth of the Kumo is thin. The depth of the Kumo signifies the strength of the support region. Next we turn to the Chikou for confirmation. Chikou is also below prices, telling a bear story. The future Kumo is thin and twists downwards. The path of least resistance is for prices to correct for 1-4 bars and continue its descend until further price action suggests otherwise. Page | 1
  • 2. APF TradingTECHNICAL ANALYSIS 10 January 2011 CHINA MERCHANT BANK Tenkan Sen crossed below Kijun Sen at Fridays close above the Kumo, suggesting a weak bearish crossover. The counter had been on a uptrend with excellent support from the Kumo. Chikou is above prices at the moment. We expect prices to test the support of the Kumo with this weak bearish cross. Page | 2
  • 3. APF TradingTECHNICAL ANALYSIS 10 January 2011 SUMITOMO MITSUI As the Tenkan Sen inches towards the Kijun Sen, prices entered the Kumo. This is a weak bull crossover. Chikou did move above prices but Kumo future is not speaking the same bull story yet. Prices might face significant resistance within this Kumo region (2647.25 - 2840) Page | 3
  • 4. APF TradingTECHNICAL ANALYSIS 10 January 2011 TOYOTA MOTOR As the Tenkan Sen crosses above the Kijun Sen, prices entered the Kumo. This is a weak bull crossover. Chikou did move above prices but Kumo depth is widening suggesting the resistance is strong. Page | 4
  • 5. APF TradingTECHNICAL ANALYSIS 10 January 2011 MIZUHO FINANCIAL Similar price action to Sumitomo. Tenkan Sen crossed above the Kijun Sen below the Kumo on Fridays close. Chikou above Kumo. Note that for Mizuho, the Kumo is thinning out. and the Span A (Orange line) is converging upwards. There is increased probability that prices might break out of the Kumo cloud which would further increase the probability of a rally. Page | 5
  • 6. APF TradingTECHNICAL ANALYSIS 10 January 2011 AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP Prices has been range bound between 20.00 and 26.00 since Aug 2009. Prices have been well support by a thick Kumo for 2010. However the Kumo is thinning out and support begins to weaken. We are watching closely subsequent developments regarding the movement of Chikou and also a bearish Kumo breakout following the recent Tenkan/Kijun Crossover. Page | 6
  • 7. APF TradingTECHNICAL ANALYSIS 10 January 2011 HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORP Beautiful bull trend seems intact other than the recent Tenkan/Kijun Crossover. Note however this crossover is very weak. The Chikou is still sitting nicely above the prices and Kumo future is bullish. Depth of Kumo is consistent, offering very good support. We expect prices to magnet around the Kijun Sen. Longer term, prices are skewed towards the upside unless prices action dictates otherwise subsequently. Page | 7
  • 8. APF TradingTECHNICAL ANALYSIS 10 January 2011 LG CHEM We expect the bull rally to continue. On the Ichimoku system, Nice bull rally Kumo future with sufficient depth provides solid support. Chikou continues to be higher than prices while the Tenkan Sen stays above the Kijun Sen since its last crossover which resulted in nearly doubling of stock prices. TD Sequential indicated potential buying exhaustion. However momentum continues to kick in and prices break higher above the risk level on a qualified basis (indicated as a full magenta line instead of dotted line). We expect prices to continue its uptrend Page | 8
  • 9. APF TradingTECHNICAL ANALYSIS 10 January 2011 USDIDR Kumo cloud is thinning out, reducing the resistance it offers. at the same time the Tenkan Sen is converging towards the Kijun Sen, looking for a weak bullish crossover from below the Kumo. Price are howering around Kijun Sen. Chikou is however still below prices. We would watch this pair closely for near term price action developments. APF Trading is a trading advisory firm offering clients advice on multi-asset trading strategies, signals, trading systems, execution services and trading platforms. The firm also conducts research and technical analysis with a focus on Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and DeMark Indicators. Page | 9