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  • 1. Public  Policy  &  Climate  Change  in  the   Asian  Century   Matt Spannagle Climate Change Advisor, AusAID Canberra, 27 November 2012
  • 2. Contents   Public  policy  &  human  development   Key  public  policy  concepts   Mi7ga7on     Adapta7on   Ma:  Spannagle  has  been  the  Climate  Change  Advisor  for  AusAID  (the  Australian  Government’s  overseas  aid  program)  since  June  2011  where  his   role  is  to  provide  expert  input  on  climate  change  and  strategic  advice  to  AusAID’s  substan7al  and  expanding  programmes.   Prior  to  joining  AusAID,  Ma:  worked  in  UNDP  as  Senior  Technical  Advisor  for  a  global  programme  of  capacity  development  for  accessing  and   structuring  new  climate  finance,  par7cularly  carbon  finance;    in  Canada  on  the  design  and  implementa7on  of  the  Canadian  emission  trading   system,  with  par7cular  focus  on  the  project  based  offset  system  quan7fica7on  and  verifica7on  requirements.  Previously,  Ma:  worked  with  the   Australian  Greenhouse  Office,  where  he  managed  a  program  that  quan7fied  and  verified  reported  company  emissions,  and  voluntary  emission   reduc7ons  projects.     Ma:  has  a  Bachelor  of  Civil  Engineering,  and  completed  his  Masters  of  Environmental  Engineering  Science  by  research  on  climate  risks  to  large   infrastructure  projects  (par7cularly  dams)  before  working  in  construc7on  and  project  management  with  dams  and  water  infrastructure  for   private  companies  and  state  corpora7ons.    
  • 3. Public  policy  challenges  of  the  century…   1800s  –  public  health        water  supply,  sanita7on,  pest  control    1900s  –  armed  conflict        MAD,  UNSC(?),  ICC      2000s  –  ….?    
  • 4. Now 2100 Committed Warmer than at any time since we stood upright
  • 5. Global  temperature  change   NASA data for 2010, 0.75oC above 1951-80 base period
  • 6. Public  policy  objecEve:  Avoid  this…    2011:  Warmest  La  Nina  year,  11th  warmest  year  
  • 7. Fatalities > 1400; > 1.3M effected (Unicef)
  • 8. Public  Policy  objecEve:  Avoid  this…    Pakistan,  August  2010   Fatalities > 1400; > 1.3M effected (Unicef)
  • 9.  Global  food  prices  spiked  recently  for  the  second  7me  in  three  years    (World  Bank)   Public policy …? Australian drought/lack wheat export Russian heatwave, ban wheat export Oil > $130/ barrel
  • 10. Century  of  climate  change  (sustainability)     Tragedy  of  the  commons  -­‐       >    global  problem:    lose-­‐lose  or  win-­‐win     >    accoun7ng  for  externali7es   >    BaU  of  markets  =  certain  failure   >    serious  equity  considera7ons   Public  policy  intervenEon  required!  
  • 11. Australia’s  internaEonal  commitments      Kyoto  Protocol    2⁰C   $599M  to  global  fast-­‐start  financing     2010-­‐13  (~$200M/year)    52%  adapta7on      Mi7ga7on:       24%  Non-­‐forest  mi7ga7on       24%  REDD+/LULUCF      ~  95%  of  FSF  allocated,  ~  65%  disbursed  
  • 12. >  MiEgaEon  –  avoid  the  unmanagable   - Reduce  exis7ng  emissions     - Avoid  future  emissions   - Sequester  emissions   >  AdaptaEon  –  manage  the  unavoidable   - Maladapta7on   - Resistance   - Resilience   - Transforma7on   2.  Key  concepts  
  • 13.    already  commi:ed  to  around  1.5  –  2⁰C    2⁰C:  between  ‘dangerous’  &‘manageable’    low  probability  of  staying  below  2⁰C    most  likely  3-­‐4⁰C  by  2060-­‐2070    At  current  rate  >  4.5  ⁰C  by  2100      (bleak)   Mitigation – “avoid the unmanagable”
  • 14. The  StabilizaEon  Challenge   •  Long  response  lag  (50yrs+)  from  emirng  to  impacts   •  Key  objecEve  is  to  stabilize  CO2e  concentraEons     Requires  global  emissions  below  natural  uptake  (15-­‐20Gt)     Currently  at  ~  44Gt  and  by  2030  55Gt       BaU  for  550ppm  by  2035   •  2050  populaEon  of  9  billion     ….means  an  alloca7on  of  ~2  tCO2e/capita  globally     India  ~  2t/capita     China  6t     EU  averages  12t     USA,  Canada  and  Australia  ~  25t  
  • 15. The  trillionth  tonne  –  why  acEon  is  urgent   Allen et al, Nature, 2009 Meinshausen et al, Nature, 2009 Solomon et al, PNAS, 2009 80 60 40 20 0 -20 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year when emissions peak -2.0% -3.6% -6% -12% -22.6% Required annual rate of reduction to stay within ‘trillion tonnes’ budget Emissionsrate:GigatonnesofCO2equivalent •  We need to limit cumulative emissions of CO2 to a total of one trillion tonnes of carbon (1 TtC) to stay within 2°C warming (range: 1.6-2.6°C). •  We’ve already spent half of our allowance since pre-industrial times, so we have ~0.5 TtC left. •  At our present rate of emissions growth we will spend the rest by ~2035, when we’d have to stop all emissions overnight to avoid exceeding 2°C.
  • 16. MiEgaEon  OpEons   >  To  stabilise  concentra7ons  (at  550ppm  or  below)   before  2050  limits  the  mi7ga7on  op7ons  due  to   scale  up  and  technology  constraints   >  Poten7al  share  of  mi7ga7on  task  to  2050:   - Energy  efficiency  40-­‐60%   - Renewables  (10-­‐15%)   - Biosequestra7on  (inc  REDD)/Biofuels  (10-­‐15%)   - Nuclear  (2-­‐5%)   - CCS  (1-­‐5%)   - Fossil  Fuel  switch  (5%)   - Agriculture  and  waste  (5-­‐10%)   Conceivable uptake without major public policy interventions
  • 17. Mitigation can & should = development! To avoid (further) dangerous climate change we must address emissions in developing countries without stifling legitimate development goals…
  • 18. Global approach to avoid 2⁰C Or ‘green growth’ or ‘low emission development’ or ‘bending the curve’ 2000 2010 2030 2050 Emissions(tCO2e) Emissions (BaU) Avoid Emissions Emissions (LEDS)
  • 19. Reality Or Project level implmentation; or ‘low emission development strategies’ or ‘Suppressed Demand’ Satisfied Service, high emissions (BaU) Satisfied Service Level, low emissions BaU:increasingwealth=increaseemissions Current (unsatisfactory) Service Level time now Avoid Emissions Emission Reductions
  • 20. >  Energy  efficiency  :   -  Improved  cookstoves       -  EE  ligh7ng  including  off-­‐grid     -  EE  applicances  (fridges,  mo7ve  power  etc)     -  Renewables   •  large  MW,  par7cularly  wind,  hydro  on  grid  (CSP,  Solar,  Geothermal,  9dal?)   •  Smaller  MW,  larger  numbers,  par7cularly  mini-­‐hydro  &  solar  systems  for  off-­‐grid     >  REDD+       >  Biofuels   -  Pelle7sed  fuels   -  Biogas  from  waste   >  Public  transport   >  Outside  the  box:    ICT,    Water  treatment  etc   What  things  might  deliver  miEgaEon  &  development?   Contested
  • 21. 2011:   > investment  in  renewables  increased  17%  to  US  $257   billion  (six  7mes  2004);       > solar  PV  module  prices  dropped  by  50%     > onshore  wind  turbines  by  nearly  10%.     Cause  for  opEmism!!  Public  policy  successes…   As development progresses, fewer people in LICs & LDCs, more MICs… …the developed/developing divide erodes
  • 22. >  Afforesta7on   >  Reforesta7on   >  Forest  Management   >  Increasing  carbon  in  the  landscape   (Silvopastoral?)   >  …algal  biofuels?    Public  policies  on  R&D?   Sequestering  carbon  –  net  reducEons  
  • 23. >  Antarc7c  ocean  iron  fer7lisa7on?   >  Sulphur  Dioxide  stratospheric  injec7on   >  Albedo  interven7ons     >  Geosta7onary  reflectors   Last  resort  of  climate  protecEon  (public)  policies  
  • 24. >  MiEgaEon  –  avoid  the  unmanagable   - Reduce  exis7ng  emissions     - Avoid  future  emissions   - Sequester  emissions   >  AdaptaEon  –  manage  the  unavoidable   - Maladapta7on   - Resistance   - Resilience   - Transforma7on   2.  Key  concepts  
  • 25. Adapta7on  examples:  Dealing  with  saltwater  intrusion   Lau Lagoon, Malaita Province, PNG
  • 26. 1. Rapid  mi7ga7on  now   2. development  &  diversifica7on   3. Integrate  climate  in  investments   4. specific  Adapta7on  Ac7ons   Adaptation – “manage the unavoidable”
  • 27. 1. Rapid  mi7ga7on  now   2. development  &  diversifica7on   3. Integrate  climate  in  investments   4. specific  Adapta7on  Ac7ons   Adaptation – “manage the unavoidable”
  • 28. DARA  COUNTRY  (2010)          UNDP  Human  Development  Index*  (2011)   OVERALL  VULNERABILITY             > AFGHANISTAN     > ANGOLA       > BANGLADESH   > BELIZE   > BHUTAN   > BURKINA  FASO   > CHAD   > DJIBOUTI   > EQUATORIAL  GUINEA   > ERITREA   > ETHIOPIA   > GAMBIA   > GUINEA-­‐BISSAU   > GUYANA   > HAITI   > HONDURAS   > INDIA   > KAZAKHSTAN   > KENYA   > KIRIBATI   -  Italicised  =  LDC            *  based  on  income,  educa9on,  life  expectancy   2. development & diversification 187 Congo, Democratic Republic of the 0.286 186 Niger 0.295 185 Burundi 0.316 184 Mozambique 0.322 183 Chad 0.328 182 Liberia 0.329 181 Burkina Faso 0.331 180 Sierra Leone 0.336 179 Central African Republic 0.340 178 Guinea 0.344 177 Eritrea 0.349 176 Guinea-Bissau 0.353 175 Mali 0.359 174 Ethiopia 0.363 173 Zimbabwe 0.376 172 Afghanistan 0.398 171 Malawi 0.400 170 Côte d'Ivoire 0.400 169 Sudan 0.408 168 Gambia 0.420
  • 29. 2011:  wekest  year  on  record  in  Qld   Fatalities = 22 (Qld police) HDI: Rank = 2; value = 0.929
  • 30. 2011:  record  floods  in  Thailand   Fatalities > 500 (BBC); HDI: Rank = 103; value = 0.682
  • 31. >  educate  girls   >  Economic  development  and   diversifica7on   >  Mobility  and  flexibility   2. development & diversification
  • 32. 1. Rapid  mi7ga7on  now   2. development  &  diversifica7on   3. Integrate  climate  in  investments   4. specific  Adapta7on  Ac7ons   Adaptation – “manage the unavoidable”
  • 33. Design  for  changing  condi7ons   Investments  should  be  suitable  for  climate   condi7ons  throughout  their  design  lives…     A.  Hydrology   i.  Spillway  design   ii.  water  supply   iii.  Bridges/river  crossings   3. Integrate climate in investments
  • 34. B.  Extreme  events   i.  Building  codes   ii.  Disaster  risk  reduc7on   integra7on  –  eg  -­‐  Warning   systems  and  shelters   3. Integrate climate in investments
  • 35. C.  Spa7al  planning  for  expanded  hazards   i.  Flood  plain  mapping  and   building  approvals     ii.  Water  catchment/runoff   management  (cover)   iii.  SLR,  wave  run  up   management  (1m  +High   water)   3. Integrate climate in investments
  • 36. Addressing  the  ‘MDB  approach’     Integra7on  doesn’t  necessarily  cost  (much)   money             3. Integrate climate in investments Project cost ‘Climate proof’ Design includes CC from start $$$ 2010 20??
  • 37. 1. Rapid  mi7ga7on  now   2. development  &  diversifica7on   3. Integrate  climate  in  investments   4. specific  AdaptaEon  AcEons   Adaptation – “manage the unavoidable”
  • 38. -  “…cycles  of  marginal  improvement  are  NOT  sufficient…”   -  Building  resilience  may  not  be  enough…   Adaptation – “manage the unavoidable” ResilienceVulnerability Hazard
  • 39. if  the  “unavoidable”  cannot  be  managed  using   approaches  and  knowledge  of  the  past…   reconsider assumptions   ResilienceVulnerability Hazard ?Coping – reactive/ unplanned ~ Hardship, suffering
  • 40. 1.  MaladaptaEon  –  current  climate     Rain fed corn farming in ASAL with subsistence small holders = viable smallholder plot
  • 41. 2.  Resistance  –  minor  climate  changes   Irrigated corn farming in ASAL with subsistence small holders = viable smallholder plot
  • 42. 3.  Resilience  –  significant  changes   Shift to cassava farming & CA = viable smallholder cassava
  • 43. 4.  TransformaEon  –  major  changes   Shift to pastoral/rangeland = viable smallholder cassava = viable pastoral
  • 44. Then  consider:   1.  Maladapta7on   2.  Resistance   3.  Resilience   4.  Transforma7on   reconsider assumptions   transition
  • 45.  Key  concepts   CC Impacts Adaptive response Autonomous coping Resistance Resilience Transformation Autonomous Resistance in new state Timing? Increasing  adapta9ve   capac9y     CHALLENGE for PUBLIC POLICY!!!
  • 46. 4  phases  of  adaptaEon  vary  over:   - Space   •   not  all  must  change  (within  na7onal  context)     • some  remain  viable  when  others  change   and  reduce  resource  pressure   - 7me     • changes  should  be  proac7ve  and   managed  progressively,  rather  than   responsive   • transforma7on  too  early  likely  sub-­‐op7mal   MaladaptaEon,  resistance,  resilience,  transformaEon  
  • 47. Inves7ng  in  resistance  and  resilience  now   makes  sense  ONLY  if  it  avoids:   - stranded  assets  (eg  irriga7on  system)   - Stranded  livelihoods  (eg  skills  in  farmers  not   pastoralists)   And  it  is  ‘no  regrets’   CHALLENGE  for  PUBLIC  POLICY!!!   MaladaptaEon,  resistance,  resilience,  transformaEon  
  • 48. cannot  fund  all  projects,  therefore:   •  Ins7gate  interna7onal  &  na7onal  policies   and  programs  (scale-­‐up)   •  Co-­‐investors  –  host  governments,  private   sector,  donors,  CSOs  &  individuals  etc   (leverage)   •  Demonstra7on  effect/persuasion  of  peers   (replicaEon)   Public policies making a difference: { X > Σ 1 n }
  • 49. Knowledge  Management     -­‐    share  lessons  –  mul7-­‐direc7onal   making a difference { X > Σ 1 n } Advocacy   DemonstraEon   Peer   persuasion   Directed     AcEon   Scale-­‐up   Leverage   Replica7on   Hard  
  • 50. 1. Sequence   1.  scien7fic  basis/impacts     2.  plan  adapta7on  priori7es   3.  implement   2. Research  programs  (new  knowledge  -­‐   new  applica7on,  nexus/systems)   3.  CCA  &  DRR  programming  coordina7on,   but…  need  to  align  CCA  with  development   trajectories     What Australia is doing on adaptation
  • 51. Lessons  for  scale  up   1. Ownership  –  co  management   2. Livelihoods  –  benefits  for  the  poor  NOW  to   ensure  sustainability   3. Local  solu7ons  in  broader  context     -  wave  walls  of  bamboo  locally  made   -  part  of  provincial  integrated  coastal   management  plan   Vietnam: Partner with Kien Giang province & GIZ
  • 52. Dealing  with  rainfall  variability  and  saltwater  intrusion   Reef Islands, Temotu Province
  • 53. Dealing  with  shoreline  erosion   Mangrove replanting at Buri, Ranongga, Western Province