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Gordon PhD Conference 2012


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  • 1. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Gordon  de  Brouwer   27  November  2012  
  • 2. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Roadmap  for  the  whole  of  Australia   National State Local Cities People-­‐to-­‐   people   Government-­‐to-­‐     government   Business-­‐to-­‐     business   Migration Education Tourism Culture Entertainment Trade Investment Value chains Research
  • 3. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Broad  consulta<on  themes   •  Improving  Australia’s  Asia-­‐relevant  capabiliHes   –  literacy  is  more  than  language  learning   •  People  to  people  links   –  need  for  increased  two  way  collaboraHon  and   exchange   •  ImplicaHons  of  Asia’s  rise   –  strategic  compeHHon  /  economic  interdependence   –  economic  trends  –  supply  chains  /  investment   •  Australia’s  compeHHveness    
  • 4. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Asia’s  economic  rise   Note: The bubble area in Chart 1 reflects the size of GDP for Asia’s economies, adjusted for purchasing power parity in 2011 prices (Maddison 2010, IMF 2012c, The Conference Board 2012 and Treasury projections). See glossary for definition of Asia and description of projections.
  • 5. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Chart  A.1:  Rising  Asian  income  per  person   Percentage  of  income  per  person  in  North  America  and  Europe   Notes: GDP is adjusted for purchasing power parity (1990 prices). See glossary for definitions of North America and Europe. Sources: Maddison (2010) and The Conference Board (2012).
  • 6. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Figure  2.1:  Asia  to  become  the  centre  of  global  economic   activity   Note: At each point in time, the centre of world economic gravity was calculated by weighting the GDP for each civilisation or country and measuring its relative importance against the known world economic capacity at that point. The centre of economic gravity slowly shifted from East Asia to Europe, then more quickly to the Atlantic and in more recent decades it has shifted quickly back towards Asia. Source: McKinsey & Company (2012).
  • 7. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Figure  2.2:  Growing  consumer  markets  of  Asia   Note: ‘Middle class’ is defined as those households with daily expenditures of between US$10 and US$100 per person. The black border circles and orange border circles depict the size of the middle-class population in 2009 and 2030 respectively. Source: Kharas & Gertz (2010).
  • 8. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Chart  1.2:  Asia’s  demographic  dividend   Share  of  working-­‐age  population   Source: UN (2011b).
  • 9. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Chart  C.1:  Demand  for  food  will  grow   Global  demand  by  commodity   Global  food  demand   Source: Linehan et al. (2012).
  • 10. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Chart  3.9:  Australia’s  agricultural  exports  to  Asia  have   risen   Value  of  Australian  agricultural  exports  (nominal)     Source: ABARES (2011).
  • 11. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Chart  3.7(a):  Australia’s  penetration  into  Asia’s  resource   markets                            Imports  of  Australian  iron  ore      Per  cent  of  domestic      consumption        Weight     Source: Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics.
  • 12. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Chart  3.7(b):  Australia’s  penetration  into  Asia’s  resource   markets   Imports  of  Australian  coking  coal    Per  cent  of  domestic      consumption      Weight     Source: Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics.
  • 13. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Chart  4.7:  Growth  in  international  student  enrolments  in   Australia   Note: VET stands for vocational education and training. ELICOS stands for English language intensive courses for overseas students. ‘Other’ includes non-award courses and enabling courses. Source: AEI (2012b).
  • 14. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Figure  9.1:  ScientiKic  links  between  Australia  and  Asian   nations   2002   2010   Sources: Thomson Reuters (2011a) and Scopus.
  • 15. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   The  Asian  century  is  an  Australian  opportunity.  As  the   global  centre  of  gravity  shi7s  to  our  region,  the   tyranny  of  distance  is  being  replaced  by  the  prospects   of  proximity.  Australia  is  located  in  the  right  place  at   the  right  <me—in  the  Asian  region  in  the  Asian   century.  
  • 16. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Scope  of  White  Paper   •  Roadmap  for  the  whole  of   Australia     •  Comprehensive  review  of   economic  and  strategic   change  to  2025   •  DomesHc  economic  and  social   policies   •  Australia’s  external  relaHons  
  • 17. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Five  na<onal  direc<ons   Productive and resilient economy Build capability (Asia-literacy) Business collaboration Sustainable security Deeper and broader relationships
  • 18. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Twenty-­‐five  na<onal  objec<ves  for  2025   2012 Skills and education Innovation system Infrastructure Communication infrastructure Tax and transfers 2 3 4 5 Regulatory reform Environmental sustainability Macro and financial frameworks School system Asia literacy in schools 7 8 9 10 Asian languages Universities VET systems Asia-capable leaders Adaptable regions 11 12 13 14 15 Social Foundations Asia-capable businesses Economic integration with Asia Agriculture and food Sustainable security 16 17 18 19 20 2025 Human security Effective diplomacy Comprehensive relationships People-to -people links Cultural links 21 22 23 24 25 Australia  will  be  a  more  prosperous  and  resilient  naHon,  fully  part  of  the  region  and   open  to  the  world  
  • 19. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Metrics  for  success,  by  2025   •  Australia’s  GDP  per  person  in  the  world’s  top  10   •  World  top  5  for  most  efficiently  regulated   •  World  top  10  for  our  innovaHon  system     •  10  Australian  universiHes  in  the  world’s  top  100     •  School  system  in  world’s  top  five   •  Students  have  conHnuous  access  to  priority  Asian  languages   •  Studies  of  Asia  core  part  of  Australian  school  curriculum  
  • 20. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Metrics  for  success,  by  2025   •  Australia’s  trade  with  Asia  will  be  at  least  one-­‐third  of  GDP   •  Our  diplomaHc  network  with  a  larger  footprint  across  Asia   •  One-­‐third  of  board  members  of  Australia’s  top  companies   and  Commonwealth  bodies  deeply  Asia  literate   •  One-­‐third  of  senior  APS  leadership  deeply  Asia  literate  
  • 21. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Chart  9.1:  DFAT  staff  posted  overseas   Note: As of June 2012. Multilateral refers to staff accredited to international organisations. Source: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
  • 22. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Chart  9.2:  Diplomatic  posts  in  Asia   Note: Compiled using data as of July 2012 from relevant foreign ministries websites. Asia refers to Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Timor-Leste, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Source: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
  • 23. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   QuesHons  and  discussion  
  • 24. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Press  headlines  included   •  Region's  seal  of  approval  for  our  Asian  Century   •  Clinton  applauds  Gillard's  Asian  Century  white   paper   •  Asian  Century  overview  ‘lacks  detail’   •  Li[  the  standard  of  debate  about  China  
  • 25. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Web  traffic          
  • 26. AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY   Chart  1.3:  Average  years  of  formal  schooling   Population  aged  15  and  above   Source: Barro & Lee (2010).