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Alicia PhD Conference 2012

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Alicia PhD Conference 2012 Alicia PhD Conference 2012 Presentation Transcript

  • AMERICAN  AID  TO  PAKISTAN  IS   DOOMED  TO  FAIL    THE  PARADOXICAL  ATTITUDES  OF  THE  U.S.  POLICY  ELITE  TOWARDS  AID   CONDITIONALITY  AND  ITS  IMPACT   Alicia  Mollaun   alicia.mollaun@anu.edu.au  
  • U.S.  Aid  to  Pakistan     2001   2002   2010   Military  Aid   0   US$1.7  billion   US$2.5  billion   Economic  Aid   US$46  million   US$228  million   US$1.9  billion   Total   US$46  million   US$1.9  billion   US$4.4  billion  
  • U.S.  Aid  to  Pakistan    •  Today,  economic  and  military  aid  heavily  condiEoned  •  Military  and  economic  aid  condiEoned  on  Pakistan  meeEng   security  outcomes  including  on  :   •  Dismantling  supplier  networks  relaEng  to  the  acquisiEon  of   nuclear  weapons-­‐related  materials;   •  Ceasing  support  for  terrorist  and  extremist  groups;   •  PrevenEng  AQ,  Taliban  and  LeT  from  operaEng  in  Pakistan;   •  Strengthening  CT  and  AML  laws;  and   •  Ensuring  the  security  forces  of  Pakistan  are  not  materially  and   substanEally  subverEng  the  poliEcal  or  judicial  processes  of   Pakistan.    •  U.S.  also  condiEons  aid  to  achieve  economic  reform  
  • Research  Gap  and  Question  •  Breadth  of  literature  on  economic  condiEonality  (poliEcal   economy,  development  economics  and  poliEcal  science).  •  Gap:  security  condiEonality,  security  condiEons  on  economic   aid;  elite  a[tudes  (donor  and  recipient)  towards  condiEons.   Few  in-­‐depth  case  studies.  •  This  research:   •  Case  study  –  U.S.  aid  to  Pakistan  post  9/11   •  Elite  a[tudes  towards  economic  and  security  condiEonality   •  Elite  a[tudes  towards  economic  condiEonality  and  economic   reform   •  Elite  a[tudes  towards  aid  and  foreign  policy  leverage.  
  • Research  Design  •  38  ‘policy  elite’  interviewed  in  Washington  D.C.  and  New  York   in  March  2012.  •  Policy  elite:     •  Academics:  Georgetown,  JHU,  Columbia,  NYU   •  Think-­‐tanks:  Brookings,  AtlanEc  Council,  New  America,  CGD,  AEI…   •  Bureaucrats:  State,  USAID,  Senate  and  House  Foreign  Affairs   •  IFIs:  World  Bank,  IMF  •  Semi-­‐Structured  Interviews.  •  Also  interviewing  Pakistani    elite  
  • Attitudes  towards  conditionality  A6tudes  towards  security  and  economic   Number  of  Responses  condi?onality   (%)  Agree  –  Security   Agree  –  Economic   17  (59%)  Agree  –  Security   Disagree  –  Economic   4  (14%)  Disagree  –  Security   Agree  –  Economic   1  (3%)  Disagree  –  Security   Disagree  –  Economic   5  (17%)  Agree  –  Economic   Silent  on  Security   1  (3%)  Disagree  -­‐  Economic   Silent  on  Security   1  (3%)  Agree  –  Security   Silent  on  Economic   0  Disagree  –Security   Silent  on  Economic   0   Sample  Size  =  29  
  • Attitudes  towards  conditionality  •  Why  do  the  elite  support  condiEons?   •  (a)  Concerns  about  Pakistan   •  (b)  DomesEc  poliEcs  in  the  U.S.  •  But  what  about  that  minority  that  dont  support  condiEons?   •  (a)  It  doesnt  work   •  (b)  It  is  counter-­‐producEve  (an  irritant).    
  • Attitudes  towards  conditions  and  economic  reform   Number  of  Responses  (%)  CondiEonality  can  achieve  economic   7  (35%)  reform  CondiEonality  cannot  achieve   13  (65%)  economic  reform  
  • Attitudes  towards  conditions  and  economic  reform  •  CondiEons  don’t  achieve  economic  reform.  Why?   •  (a)  Pakistan  actually  has  more  leverage   •  Pakistan’s  importance  vis-­‐à-­‐vis  ‘war  on  terror’  and  war  in  Afghanistan   •  (b)  Pakistans  problems  too  deep-­‐rooted   •  poliEcal,  vested  interests    •  However,  the  minority  believe  that  condiEons  can  achieve   economic  reform.   •  Success  of  mulElateral  aid  condiEonality  rather  than  bilateral   condiEons  
  • Attitudes  towards  aid  and  foreign  policy  leverage   Number  of  responses  (%)   Aid  can  achieve  foreign  policy  leverage   5  (17%)   Aid  can  achieve  foreign  policy  leverage   10  (33%)   (but  the  U.S.  has  lost  its  leverage)   Aid  cannot  achieve  foreign  policy   15  (50%)   leverage  •  Majority  believe  aid  can’t  achieve  leverage  over  foreign  policy.  Why?     •  (a)  credibility  of  U.S.  demands   •  (b)  conflicEng  goals   •  (c)  the  size  of  the  U.S.  aid  program   •  (d)  Pakistan  vs.  U.S.  leverage   •  (e)  trust   •  (f)  strategic  calculus  
  • Attitudes  towards  aid  and  foreign  policy  leverage  •  Minority  argue  that  aid  could  achieve  leverage:   •  (a)  through  military  aid  during  Pakistan’s  military  rule   immediately  aqer  9/11   •  (b)  through  provision  of  military  equipment.   BUT  –  with  Pakistan’s  civilian  government,  it  is  much  more  difficult   to  achieve  aid  through  either  economic  or  military  assistance.    
  • The  Paradox   Condi?onal   Condi?onal   Total   approach  works   approach  does   not  work  Support   11   12   23  condiEonal  approach  Do  not  support   4   2   6  condiEonal  approach  Total   15   14   29  
  • The  Paradox  The  U.S.  elite  support  a  condiEonal  approach  but  don’t  think    it  works.  
  • Why  do  conditions  persist?  •  For  signaling  reasons      DomesEc          InternaEonal  (Pakistan)  •  Domes?c:   •   CondiEons  for  U.S.  audience  –  makes  aid  to  Pakistan  more  poliEcally  palatable  in   the  U.S.  •  Interna?onal  (Pakistan):     •  U.S.  long-­‐term  commitment  to  Pakistan   •  U.S.  focus  on  civilian  issues,  not  just  security/strategic  issues  •  Problems     •  U.S.  is  not  credible  in  its  condiEons   •  U.S.  doesn’t  trust  Pakistan  •  Given  the  need  for  signaling,  and  the  U.S  strategic  need  for  Pakistan’s   cooperaEon,  condiEonal  aid  is  given   •  Despite  negaEve  percepEons  of  the  uElity  of  condiEonality  
  • Conclusion  •  Academic  studies  skepEcal  of  condiEonality,  yet  it  sEll  persists.  •  This  paradox  is  exemplified  in  the  views  of  the  U.S.  elite   towards  the  imposiEon  of  condiEonality  on  American  aid.  •  This  research  sheds  light  on  why  condiEonality  persists   •  Aid  may  be  condiEonal  for  domesEc  poliEcal  reasons   •  CondiEonality  has  a  signaling  role  •  Aid  has  to  be  given  –  aid  has  to  be  condiEonal   •  Aid  remains  condiEonal  even  if  condiEons  don’t  influence  •  Ongoing  research  will  explore  the  percepEons  of  the  Pakistani   elite  towards  condiEonality  
  • Q&A