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  • Commercial technologies have 1000 hrs of mean time between failure at least .

Commercial viability analysis for solar thermal power 2003-pps Commercial viability analysis for solar thermal power 2003-pps Presentation Transcript

  • Commercial Viability Analysis for Solar thermal Power Generation Systems under New Market and Regulatory developments in India Final Semester Major Project Report Presented by – Anudeep Yadav Roll No 10
  • Content
    • Solar Energy - A Promising Energy Source for India.
    • Solar Thermal Power Generation-Global Achievements So Far.
    • Solar Thermal Power Generation-India’s Experience.
    • Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission-Renewed focus.
    • Concentrated Solar Power –Commercial Tech.
    • Concentrated Solar Power -Indian Market & Regulatory Proposals.
    • Concentrated Solar Power-Key Indian Project Proposals
    • Technical Issues
    • Economic Issues
    • Recommendations
    Anudeep Yadav ;Roll no 10; MBA-Power Management,NPTI
  • Solar Energy - A Promising Energy Source for India Anudeep Yadav ;Roll no 10; MBA-Power Management,NPTI
    • Annual global radiation varies from 1600 to 2200 kWh/m2
    • The direct normal insolation (DNI) over Rajasthan varies from 1800 kWh/m2 to 2600 kWh/m2 .
    • 5 trillion kWh/year theoretical potential
    • Sunny areas
      • Most of the country receives more than 4kWh/m 2 /day
      • Average of 300 sunny days in the most part of the country
    • Theoretically
    • If one percent of the land is used to harness solar energy for electricity generation at an overall efficiency of 10%;
    • 492 x 10 6 MU/year electricity can be generated .
    • * TERI Calculations
  • Solar Thermal Power Generation-Global Achievements So Far Anudeep Yadav ;Roll no 10; MBA-Power Management,NPTI *Courtesy DLR- IEA 2009 Report Total Installed Capacity ~ 600 MW Troughs- Most mature Tech. Towers Next in line Dish - Yet to be Demonstrated. USA and Spain are the key Markets to look forward to. *
  • Solar Thermal Power Generation-India’s Experience
    • Indigenous Attempt
    • By MNES ,parabolic trough collector technology (line focusing) at Gwalpahari, Gurgaon.
    • 50kW capacity
    • Commissioned in 1989 and operated till 1990 ;Shut down due to lack of spares
    Anudeep Yadav ;Roll no 10; MBA-Power Management,NPTI
    • Integrated Solar Combined Cycle Power Plant ,140MW (Mathania) Raj. 35MW Solar
      • Began the GEF work program in 1996. *
      • GEF contribution of US$49 million; a total financing volume of US$245 million (GoI and KfW, and executed by KfW)
      • Prequalification in 2001; 1 international, BHEL and L &T ( both with SOLEL).
      • Only BHEL , L&T remained finally. Techno economic difficulty, none submitted.
    • STATUS (as reported by Magazine “Project Monitor” on 3 r d April 2006)
      • International Funds are transferred to some other project.
      • Project needs revised techno-economic feasibility study.
      • RRECL has not been able to sign Gas Supply Agreement with GAIL.
    *www.Solarpaces.org Shelved and now Reopened Again
  • Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission-Renewed focus on solar
    • 3-phase approach
      • Up to 2012-13 as Phase 1. installed Cap - 1100 MW
      • From 2013-17 as Phase 2. installed Cap - 4000 MW
      • From 2017-22 as Phase 3. installed Cap -20000 MW
    • Demonstration projects in Phase I
      • 50-100 MW Solar thermal plant with 4-6 hours’ storage (plant load factor up to 40%).
      • A 100-MW capacity parabolic trough technology based solar thermal plant.
      • A 100-150 MW Solar hybrid plant with coal, gas or bio-mass to address variability and space-constraints.
    • Promotion proposals.
      • Local demand creation, right incentives & large government pilot/demonstration programs.
      • Financing & Incentives , import duty, low rate loans, priority sector lending etc
    Anudeep Yadav ;Roll no 10; MBA-Power Management,NPTI
  • Concentrated Solar Power Commercial Tech
    • CSP Trough
      • Most mature commercial technology
      • Latest Functional Plant
      • Andasol (Spain)
        • 3 x 49.9 Mwe
        • Solar to Electrical Eff 16 %
        • 7.5 full load hours Storage. Annual CUF – 40 %
        • Investment ~ 750 million Euro ; 80 % debt financed
        • Approx 32 crores/MW; Tariff ~Rs 17.5/unit
        • 512000 m2 / 200 Ha of collectors /plant.
        • 50 member permanent Staff.
    Anudeep Yadav ;Roll no 10; MBA-Power Management,NPTI *Solar Millennium LLC & Flagsol *
  • Concentrated Solar Power Commercial Tech- Contd
    • Solar Tower –second most mature commercial Tech.
    • Latest Functional Plants – PS 10, PS20 ( Spain)
        • 11 MW Sat Steam Rx, 1 hour Storage, backup NG ( 15%)
        • Solar resource- 2102 KWh/m2/yr ; Land 55 Ha
        • Tariff – 27.12Euro cent/KWh , 25 yrs PPA.
        • Solar to Elect Efficiency – 21.4%.
        • Plant Cost – 33 Million Euro , Rs~ 19.5Crore /MW.
    Anudeep Yadav ;Roll no 10; MBA-Power Management,NPTI
  • Concentrated Solar Power -Indian Market & Regulatory Proposals
    • Incentives are mutually exclusive between State policies and MNRE.
    • MNRE , GBI Scheme
      • Limited to total of 50 MW, 10 MW/state and 5 MW/ developer. Policy limited to 1 year with revision on annual basis.
      • Not avail with Acc Depreciation.
      • No backup fuel allowed.
      • Max Period of 10 yr.
      • Connected to PPA with Utility with cap of Rs 9.5/unit.
    • State of Gujarat
      • Not available for MNRE facilitated projects.
      • Valid for 500MW of Capacity , min cap of 5 MW.
      • Valid upto March 2014.
      • No Fossil fuel allowed.
      • No Electricity duty.
      • Tariff of 9 Rs /unit for 12yrs.
      • Specifies penalty for Discom to fail meet RPO @ Rs 12/unit.
    Anudeep Yadav ;Roll no 10; MBA-Power Management,NPTI
    • State of Rajasthan
      • Ten year Promotional Tariff ( incl. GBI) to be Rs 13.18/unit.
      • Plans to establish a Solar Energy Enterprises Zone (SEEZ) in the districts of Barmer, Jaisalmer and Jodhpur by offering a package of incentives to private investors.
    Back
  • Concentrated Solar Power -Indian Market & Regulatory Proposals-contd.
    • CERC Solar Thermal T &C for Tariff.
      • Benchmark Capital Cost Norm Rs 1530 Lakhs/MW
      • Tariff Period- 25 yrs.
      • Land Costs- 0.18 crores/MW ( @ 6 Acre/MW,3L/Acre).
      • Loan Tenure- 10 years.
      • Normative CUF- 23 %
      • Depreciation- 7 % ( 1 st 10 yrs)
      • RoE – 19% and 24 %
      • O & M Expenses 13Lakh/MW
      • Aux Cons – 10 %
    Anudeep Yadav ;Roll no 10; MBA-Power Management,NPTI
  • Concentrated Solar Power-Indian Project Proposals
    • 10 MW SOLAR THERMAL Tower Power Project Acme Telepower, (Bikaner )Rajasthan.
    • Uses Esolar’s new technology.
      • Not yet proved.
      • Pilot Plant of 2.5 x2 ( 5 MW) Operational since last year.
      • No Performance Data yet available.
    Anudeep Yadav ;Roll no 10; MBA-Power Management,NPTI
  • Concentrated Solar Power-Indian Project Proposals- Contd
    • Solar Thermal Power Plant at Bap, Jodhpur, Rajasthan based on Parabolic dish-sterling technology.
    • Modular 3kW 3340 systems
    • Total Cap . 10 MW
    • Land Requirement - 70 Acres.
    • EPC Contractor - INFINIA Corp,
    • USA
    • back
    Anudeep Yadav ;Roll no 10; MBA-Power Management,NPTI
  • Technical Issues
    • Major Cost Forecasts Base
      • Sargent & Lundy Cost & Performance Forecast.
        • Allocated cost reduction due to
        • Volume production (learning and improvements in manufacturing)
        • Plant scale-up (increasing size), and
        • Technology advances (RD&D)
        • Assumes cost in range of Rs 6/unit to Rs 4.5/unit.
        • Tower Plants overtake the cheapest source from trough plants before 2010.
    Anudeep Yadav ;Roll no 10; MBA-Power Management,NPTI
    • Problems
      • Assumed increased deployment hasn’t been found to happen.
      • Costs in regions of SW USA or Upper EGYPT inc by at least 30 % when in regions like India.*
      • Technology cost forecasts for tower are proved mistaken.
      • Major Costs of Tower Plants
      • Tech – 23%
      • Scale up & Volume Prod.
      • *Greenpeace Solar Outlook
  • Technical Issues-Contd.
    • Insolation Level Measurement of specific sites.
    • Use of New Unproved Technologies in tower systems.
    • Unviable small scale plants. ( 5 – 10 MW)*
    • Extent of indigenization is not high.
      • Structures (precision assembly)
      • Power Block (specialized turbine)
      • Receiver/ Receiver tubes(very specialized )
      • Mirror surfaces/heliostats- doubtful(specialized low thickness upto 2 mm,hi reflectivity 92%,light weight)
    Anudeep Yadav ;Roll no 10; MBA-Power Management,NPTI
    • Unreliable Dish Stirling Systems
      • No utility scale plant online yet.
      • Highest Land requirements (10 – 20 acre/Mw) , even more than PV .
      • Infinia corp. haven't yet delivered high efficiencies.
      • Major issues with maintenance, mean time between failure is reported to be around 40 hrs in a testimony of expert before US Energy Commision.
    * Expert Opinion,Sandia Labs
  • Economic Issues
    • Capital Costs
      • Technology of proposed projects. 1
      • Capital costs – Min .15.9 Crores (w / capital subsidy)*
      • O & M Costs – Conn. to Capacity^; Staff Training
    • Capacity Utilization
      • Actual values depend on
        • Insolation
        • Extent of Storage
        • Backup Fuel Allowances
      • Best Case Values are around 15 to 21 %
    Anudeep Yadav ;Roll no 10; MBA-Power Management,NPTI * Data on Executed Tower Project in Spain ,Aus Govt Report on HTSP Roadmap ^ based on Experiences in US SEGS plants. 8%-to- 2 % Points Loss
  • Economic Issues-Contd
    • Hidden costs
      • Land development.
        • Slope of land is key issue. ( 1%)
        • Continuous areas of sufficient solar field as per requirement should be available.
    • Effect of Land level in design of PS 10 ,Spain
    Anudeep Yadav ;Roll no 10; MBA-Power Management,NPTI
    • USA CSP Resource Potential before applying filters of
      • Land slope
      • Continuous Land availability.
      • DNI value
    • USA CSP Resource Potential After applying filters of
      • Land slope <= 1%
      • Continuous Land availability.- 10 Kms
      • DNI value - 6.75 Kwh/m2/day
  • Economic Issues-Contd
    • Incentives mismatch
      • USA
          • Renewable portfolio standards of 20 to 30 %
          • Federal Cash Grant of 30 % of expenditures, eligible to commercial systems.
          • Commercial/Residential Tax Credit- not avail. With grant, income tax liability net of local grants.
          • Federal Corp. Depreciation :- Accelerated upto the level of 50 % in first year ,also called as Modified Accelerated Cost-Recovery System (MACRS), classifies several renewable projects as 5 year property.
          • Federal Loan guarantee Program:-
          • Allows guarantees for long term repayments upto 90 % useful life or 30 years.
    Anudeep Yadav ;Roll no 10; MBA-Power Management,NPTI
    • Incentives mismatch
      • Spain
          • Solar thermal focused special regulations.attracted 800 Mwe Plants.
          • Special mechanism of high feed in tariffs provided along with capital subsidies from state govt.s and EU
          • Option 1 – fix tariff of 0.28 Euro/unit.
          • Option 2 – combination of market price ~ 0.16euro +premium upto 0.26 euro /unit subject to min (0.26 euro) and max (0.35 euro), 25 yrs., then 80 %
          • Allowance of Fossil Fuel backup upto 15 %.
    • Incentives mismatch
          • India
  • Recommendations
    • The Actual Assumptions based on Study analysis gives the tariff in ranges of Rs 27 – 22/unit.
      • Capital costs ranging 16 to 19 crores/MW.
      • O &M Costs indexed to Capital costs. ( ~ 2 %).
      • Lower CUFs ( 18 to 21 %).
      • Motive to produce reliable and dispatch able capacities.
    Anudeep Yadav ;Roll no 10; MBA-Power Management,NPTI
    • Key Parameters having effect on tariffs are
      • CUF.
      • Loan Interest Rates.
      • Loan Tenure.
      • Capital subsidy.
    • Allow Fossil fuel back up with fixed percentages(10-15%).
    • Provide for state support and incentives for larger scale plants for establishing utility scale plants.
    • Small Scale demonstrator plants should be setup with state as minority stakeholder to establish Life Cycle Costs to set up accurate T & C of Tariff.
    • Develop a holistic approach for development of reliable power source, providing scope for storage .
    • Prepare detailed DNI database for prospective Solar thermal Sites.
    • Queries are welcome !
    Anudeep Yadav ;Roll no 10; MBA-Power Management,NPTI
    • Ministry of New and Renewable Energy sources, http://mnes.nic.in/pdf/mission-document-JNNSM.pdf
    • Central electricity regulatory commission, www.cercind.gov.in
    • Various status reports of previous developments in solar thermal power generation across the world; www.osti.gov/energycitations
    • Communications with Dr. Tom Mancini, CSP program Director , Sandia Labs USA
    • SOLARPACES website, for detailed study reports, http://www.solarpaces.org/CSP_Technology/docs
    • Concentrating Solar Power Reports, http://ec.europa.eu/energy/res/publications/doc/
    • Esolar’s website; http://www.esolar.com/sierra_fact_sheet.pdf
    • Estella Solar; http://www.estelasolar.eu/fileadmin/ESTELAdocs/documents
    • Rajasthan Electricity regulatory commission ; http://www.rerc.gov.in/Order/Tariff_for_Solar_Power_Order2APR08.pdf
    • Presentations by Rainer Aringhoff, President Solar Millenium LLC, Berkley; 10 /1/2008 Final Report on “ Technical data, costs, and life cycle inventories of solar thermal power plants&quot; by Peter Viebahn, Stefan Kronshage, Franz Trieb (DLR), Yolanda Lechon (CIEMAT) funded EU , release 2008.
    •  
    • National Renewable Energy Labs online library for accessing various reports including Sargent and Lundy's analysis; http://www.nrel.gov/csp/troughnet/pdfs/2007 to 2009 .
    •  
    • Green peace report on solar thermal http://www.greenpeace.org/raw/content/international/press/reports/concentrating-solar-power-2009.pdf
    • IEA website reports on CSP; http://www.iea.org/papers/2009/CSP_Brochure.pdf
    • World bank’s Global Environmental Facility Report on status of solar thermal plants, 2005.
    • HIGH TEMPERATURE SOLAR THERMAL TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP for Australia, by Wyld Group Pty Ltd for Australian states of Victoria and New South wales; 2008 .
    • European Commission (2007), Concentrating Solar Power: Main Projects document; Supported By The Commission , Brussels.
    References
  • Major Modified Assumptions according to Real project experiences .(Tower)
    • Capital Costs- 15.9 Cr/MW and more.
    • O &M Costs- 2% - 2.5% of Cap Costs.
    • C U F 19 %
    • back
    Anudeep Yadav ;Roll no 10; MBA-Power Management,NPTI