The	  impact	  of	  piracy	  (and	  P2P)	          on	  paid	  content	  sales	                Tools	  of	  Change	  –	  N...
Our	  point	  of	  view	  •  Intellectual	  property	  (IP)	  maGers	  •  There	  are	  niches,	  and	  Htles,	  for	  whi...
“Perhaps	  on	  the	  rare	  occasion	  that	  pursuing	  the	  right	  course	  demands	  an	  act	  of	  piracy,	  pirac...
“Free”	  is	  not	  “new”	  …	  •  A	  long	  and	  successful	  history	  •  Galleys,	  ARCs,	  blads,	  sample	  chapter...
Why	  look	  at	  this	  topic	  now?	   More	      BeGer	                          “Piracy	   digital	   ebook	          ...
Our	  research	  approach	           Document	                                        Address	                    Analyze	...
The	  current	  sample	  set	  O’Reilly	  Media	     Have	  been	  measuring	  the	  impact	  on	  front-­‐list	  sales	  ...
What	  we	  have	  learned	  so	  far	  •    Low	  volume	  of	  P2P	  seeds	  and	  leeches	  •    Interest	  in	  seeded...
The	  number	  of	  seeds	  peaks	  quickly	                                                     9	  
Leeches	  peak	  quickly	  and	  then	  decline	                                                        10	  
Lag	  Hme	  before	  seeding	  varies	                 Average	  =	  19	  weeks	                                          ...
Where	  piracy	  may	  help	  sales	  •  “Normed”	  the	  sales	  paGerns	  of	  pirated	  and	     un-­‐pirated	  content...
Average	  sales	  (weeks	  afer	  pub	  date)	              Average	  week	  at	  which	  seeded	  content	  first	  seen	 ...
Average	  sales	  (weeks	  afer	  pub	  date)	              Average	  week	  at	  which	  seeded	  content	  first	  seen	 ...
Average	  sales	  (weeks	  afer	  pub	  date)	               Average	  week	  at	  which	  seeded	  content	  first	  seen	...
Four-­‐week	  rolling	  averages	        Average	  week	  at	  which	  seeded	  content	  first	  seen	                    ...
Three	  useful	  cauHons	  •  CorrelaHon	  isn’t	  causality	  •  Larger	  data	  sets	  may	  uncover	  a	  sample	  skew...
Proposing	  a	  more	  nuanced	  model	     “White”	                                     “Gray”	                          ...
Understanding	  piracy	  …	  •  AdopHng	  the	  reader’s	  point	  of	  view	  •  The	  risk	  of	  conclusions	  with	  l...
AdopHng	  the	  reader’s	  point	  of	  view	                                                   	  Chris	  Walters,	  Book...
Conclusions	  with	  limited	  data	  •  AGributor:	  piracy	  is	  a	  “$3	  billion	  problem”	  •  Macmillan:	  a	  sev...
Top	  10	  pirated	  Htles	  (maybe)                                                	  1.  Kamasutra	                     ...
The	  value	  of	  DRM-­‐restricted	  content                                                	  •  Sony:	  DRM	  …	  “allo...
A	  call	  to	  acHon	  •    Find	  out	  where	  your	  Htles	  are	  shared	  •    Establish	  the	  impact	  on	  sales...
“Informa<on	  wants	  to	  be	  free.	  	  Informa<on	  also	  wants	  to	  be	  expensive.	  	  Informa<on	  wants	  to	 ...
For	  more	  informaHon	  •  “Rough	  Cut”	  research	  paper	     –  Includes	  this	  research	  and	  future	  updates	...
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The impact of p2p file distribution on paid content sales presentation


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la diffusione p2p fa davvero così male ai brand di successo?

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The impact of p2p file distribution on paid content sales presentation

  1. 1. The  impact  of  piracy  (and  P2P)   on  paid  content  sales   Tools  of  Change  –  New  York   February  22,  2010  
  2. 2. Our  point  of  view  •  Intellectual  property  (IP)  maGers  •  There  are  niches,  and  Htles,  for  which  piracy  is   a  direct  loss  and  enforcement  makes  sense  •  There  are  niches,  and  Htles,  for  which  piracy   may  help  build  awareness  and  trial  to  spur   paid  sales  •  This  research  is  structured  to  uncover  which  is   which     2  
  3. 3. “Perhaps  on  the  rare  occasion  that  pursuing  the  right  course  demands  an  act  of  piracy,  piracy  itself  can  be  the  right  course?”   Governor  Swann,   in  “Pirates  of  the  Caribbean”   (itself  pirated)   3  
  4. 4. “Free”  is  not  “new”  …  •  A  long  and  successful  history  •  Galleys,  ARCs,  blads,  sample  chapters  •  Digital  sampling  on  the  rise  •  A  small  set  of  experiments  using  “free”  digital   content  …  •  …  but  no  Htle-­‐level  studies  evaluaHng  the   impact  of  piracy  on  paid  content  sales   4  
  5. 5. Why  look  at  this  topic  now?   More   BeGer   “Piracy   digital   ebook   threat”  content   readers   5  
  6. 6. Our  research  approach   Document   Address   Analyze   Assess   IdenHfy   and  assess   data  quality   results   implicaHons   next  steps   prior  work  • Collect  prior   • Use  a   • Measure  Htles   • Compare  the   • Share  the   work   consistent   across  mulHple   presence  of   analysis  • Segment   data  source   publishers   pirated   • Invite   aGributes   (POS  feeds)   • Look  at   content  to   discussion   • Measure   combined   paid  sales  • IdenHfy  data   • Grow  the   gaps   sales  pre-­‐  and   results   sample   post-­‐piracy   The  research  is  data-­‐driven,  open  (without  compromising  publisher  data)  and   structured  to  share  knowledge.   6  
  7. 7. The  current  sample  set  O’Reilly  Media   Have  been  measuring  the  impact  on  front-­‐list  sales  since  fall  2008   Monitored  BitTorrent  sites;  only  PirateBay  had  more  than  a   handful  of  O’Reilly  Htles  posted   Tracked  acHvity  of  seeds  (uploads)  and  leeches  (downloads)  for   any  2008  O’Reilly  front  list  Htles  found  on  these  sites  Thomas  Nelson   Began  working  with  Thomas  Nelson’s  fall  2009  list  in  August  2009   To  dates,  no  fall  2009  Htles  have  appeared  on  monitored  sites   Lag  Hme  for  Thomas  Nelson  Htles  may  be  longer  than  for  O’Reilly   7  
  8. 8. What  we  have  learned  so  far  •  Low  volume  of  P2P  seeds  and  leeches  •  Interest  in  seeded  content  peaks  early  •  Lag  Hme  on  P2P  seeding  •  Unexplained  “bump”  in  paid  sales  of  O’Reilly   content  afer  piracy  is  noted   8  
  9. 9. The  number  of  seeds  peaks  quickly   9  
  10. 10. Leeches  peak  quickly  and  then  decline   10  
  11. 11. Lag  Hme  before  seeding  varies   Average  =  19  weeks   11  
  12. 12. Where  piracy  may  help  sales  •  “Normed”  the  sales  paGerns  of  pirated  and   un-­‐pirated  content  to  a  common  starHng  point  •  PloGed  the  average  sales  per  week  for  pirated   and  un-­‐pirated  Htles  •  Uncovered  a  visual  correlaHon  between  piracy   onset  and  unit  sales   Because  of  different  pub  dates,  the  average  Hme  on  sale  for  pirated  content  in  this   sample  is  shorter  (35  weeks)  than  that  for  un-­‐pirated  content  (47)  weeks.     Comparisons  at  the  end  of  the  on-­‐sale  period  are  not  reliable.   12  
  13. 13. Average  sales  (weeks  afer  pub  date)   Average  week  at  which  seeded  content  first  seen   Unreliably  small  sample  sets   13  
  14. 14. Average  sales  (weeks  afer  pub  date)   Average  week  at  which  seeded  content  first  seen   Unreliably  small  sample  sets   14  
  15. 15. Average  sales  (weeks  afer  pub  date)   Average  week  at  which  seeded  content  first  seen   Unreliably  small  sample  sets   +108% 15  
  16. 16. Four-­‐week  rolling  averages   Average  week  at  which  seeded  content  first  seen   Unreliably  small  sample  sets   16  
  17. 17. Three  useful  cauHons  •  CorrelaHon  isn’t  causality  •  Larger  data  sets  may  uncover  a  sample  skew  •  What  works  today  may  not  work  as  well  at   some  future  date   17  
  18. 18. Proposing  a  more  nuanced  model   “White”   “Gray”   “Back   market   market   channel”  •  Print  sales   •  Unprotected  digital  sales   •  Unauthorized  •  DRM-­‐restricted   •  Galleys,  ARCs   duplicaHon   digital  sales   •  “Free”  promoHons   •  Pirated  content  •  “Trialware”   Our  conHnuing  quesHon:  what  impact  does  piracy  have  on  sales?   18  
  19. 19. Understanding  piracy  …  •  AdopHng  the  reader’s  point  of  view  •  The  risk  of  conclusions  with  limited  data  •  The  value  of  DRM-­‐restricted  content   19  
  20. 20. AdopHng  the  reader’s  point  of  view    Chris  Walters,  Booksprung   Kirk  Biglione,  Medialoper  •  Release  digital  content   •  Provide  a  high-­‐quality   (don’t  frustrate  demand)   consumer  experience  •  Don’t  cripple  content  or   •  Value  consumers’  Hme  as   limits  its  devices  or  uses   well  as  their  resources  •  Provide  high-­‐quality  (not   •  Kindle  purchase:  2  clicks   substandard)  digital  ediHons   •  Rapidshare  download:  6  •  Don’t  try  to  “solve”  piracy;   clicks   think  about  managing  it   20  
  21. 21. Conclusions  with  limited  data  •  AGributor:  piracy  is  a  “$3  billion  problem”  •  Macmillan:  a  seven  point  plan  •  The  risk:  dialogue  gets  replaced  with  an  urgent   call  to  “do  something”  •  We  don’t  know  the  answers,  and  we  should   develop  the  data  to  find  out   21  
  22. 22. Top  10  pirated  Htles  (maybe)  1.  Kamasutra   7.  Twilight  –  Complete  Series  2.  Adobe  Photoshop  Secrets   8.  How  To  Get  Anyone  To  Say  3.  The  Complete  Idiot’s  Guide   YES  –  The  Science  Of   to  Amazing  Sex   Influence  4.  The  Lost  Notebooks  of   9.  Nude  Photography  –  The   Leonardo  daVinci   Art  And  The  Craf  5.  Solar  House  –  A  Guide  for   10. Fix  It  –  How  To  Do  All   the  Solar  Designer   Those  LiGle  Repair  Jobs  6.  Before  Pornography  –   Around  The  Home   EroHc  WriHng  In  Early   Source:  TorrentFreak,  via  Teleread  (Paul  Biba)   Modern  England   22  
  23. 23. The  value  of  DRM-­‐restricted  content  •  Sony:  DRM  …  “allows  content  creators  and   distributors  to  make  money  from  book   content”  •  Reality:  true  pirates  don’t  worry  about  DRM  •  We’re  restricHng  the  rights  of  readers  just  in   case  they  turn  into  pirates  •  The  value  of  DRM-­‐restricted  content?    Less.   23  
  24. 24. A  call  to  acHon  •  Find  out  where  your  Htles  are  shared  •  Establish  the  impact  on  sales  •  Invest  in  measurement  on  an  ongoing  basis  •  On  your  own  …  or  through  this  work  •  Learn  the  right  lessons  from  other  industries   24  
  25. 25. “Informa<on  wants  to  be  free.    Informa<on  also  wants  to  be  expensive.    Informa<on  wants  to  be  free  because  it  has  become  so  cheap  to  distribute,  copy  and  recombine  –  too  cheap  to  meter.    It  wants  to  be  expensive  because  it  can  be  immeasurably  valuable  to  the  recipient.    That  tension  will  not  go  away.    It  leads  to  endless,  wrenching  debate  about  price,  copyright,  intellectual  property,  the  moral  rightness  of  casual  distribu<on,  because  each  round  of  new  devices  makes  the  tension  worse,  not  beCer.”   -­‐-­‐  Stewart  Brand  (1984)   25  
  26. 26. For  more  informaHon  •  “Rough  Cut”  research  paper   –  Includes  this  research  and  future  updates   –  Also  provides  background  on  free  and  P2P   –  hGp://  •   26  
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