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Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
Tech megatrends
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Tech megatrends

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Presentation given to REALCOMM CIO Forum in London on the 16th October 2013.

Presentation given to REALCOMM CIO Forum in London on the 16th October 2013.

Published in: Business, Economy & Finance
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  • Way back in 1995 the IT Director of what was then Healey & Baker described the Internet as ‘a solution in search of a problem’, and in doing so encapsulated the nostrum that property people are clueless about technology. Quite why is difficult to say, as the industry is full of brain power and hardly other worldly. It defies explanation. Today though even the most oblivious do at least recognise that the internet is important, and here to stay. It’s taken well over a decade, but hallelujah, we made it.There is just one problem. ‘Getting’ the internet is no longer enough. That’s as useful as knowing the earth rotates around the sun. Tech has moved on, bigtime. Marc Andreesen recently wrote an article entitled “Software is about to Eat The World*, in which he talks about how technology is working its way up the value chain in terms of the industries it is impacting.We need to understand what is going and how these megatrends might effect all of us.
  • 207,000,000 smartphones were sold worldwide in the last quarter of 2012. That’s four times the number of babies born. Apple sold 19,500,000 iPads alone in the last quarter. In the UK over 6,000,000 people have a Smartphone AND a tablet.We are moving to a ‘mobile first’ world at breakneck speed. Far faster than anyone imagined a few years ago.
  • In the UK nearly 1/3rd of all web page views are now from a phone or tablet. The trend is aggressive and getting more so.How does your site look on a phone?
  • Everyone can see that the market for mobile communications is growing. What is less easily grasped is the sheer scale of this growth, and the transformational effect is it having on how we ‘work, rest and play’. Take the graph below: it shows the amount of data traveling over mobile networks per month. Last year saw 77% growth, which is impressive. But nothing compared to the predicted 13 fold growth from 2012-2017.This isn’t incremental growth it is exponential. And will be transformational. How could it not be? Think of anything that increases by 13 times in five years. Things aren’t the same are they? Or even ‘more of the same’. No, they are different.
  • In the US the average length of a call has halved since 2005, to around 90 seconds
  • Watching video via mobile has grown 262% in the last year. (More than 50% of total traffic)
  • Amazon has seen mobile use grow by 87% in the last year
  • Johnlewis.com sales soared by 41% to 959,000,000 in 2012 and accounted for a quarter of trade.Quote from the JL half year statement.All this is what Blackberry completely failed to see. People want more than just a device for making calls and emailing.Was obvious years ago.I wonder how their property portfolio has been affected. Surely a lot.But all could have been foreseen.
  • Everything progressive, innovative, transformational about technology today is dependent on connectivity. It is the connective tissue that allows ‘The Modern World’ to function. And we need more of it, at much higher speeds, available whenever and wherever.Why?Because every time bandwidth increases it enables a whole new cycle of technological innovation. Some things wished for for years are suddenly possible and some things totally unexpected suddenly appear.Go back to 2000. Early days of broadband. Lucky early adopters got access to 2mb broadband. Great BUT. Billions were wasted by media/web companies developing high spec sites and trying to roll out ‘video on demand’ type services. Nothing quite worked. The connectivity just wasn’t good enough. Today, with 100mb broadband at home, we think nothing off streaming live TV or movies.
  • Or cast you mind back to 2007 and the launch of the iPhone. Yes, just 6 years ago. Transformational wasn’t it? The hot thing the day before was the clamshell Razr. Bang, game over. Then to now have been all about Apple and Android. The 1st iPhone didn’t even have 3G – now we have 20mb 4G. And how we use our phones has been revolutionised. Many of us hardly even use them as phones, or if we do we use Skype. No, these are portable computers with instant on and constant availability. Hell, we can even get fast wifi down the tube.Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter, YouTube. None even ten years old. But central to our lives. Or most of us. All the product of a world that moved from Dial Up Internet access to Broadband.
  • The image below shows the same scene, from the Pope’s inauguration, in 2005 and 2013. Spot the difference? Everything is the same, but different. Extrapolate to 2020….
  • Larry Page of Google was asked at their developer conference recently why they were connecting up whole cities with Gigabit fibre internet (Google Fiber). His answer amounted to saying it’s just silly to not connect all their data centres to people at the fastest speed possible. So much computing power is now available (via the Cloud) that if you give people access to that power they will think of amazing things to do with it. Such as driverless cars, real time language translation, real time satellite mapping, voice controlled search and on and on. We simply do not know what will emerge. The key though is that we need connectivity at a speed comparable to the computing grunt we have available.One hears much talk today of information overload, but that is exactly the wrong way to see things. The problem is not too much information, it is filter failure. The inability of your software to filter out what information you actually need. Who would not want the perfect answer available on demand? That though requires great filters. And it is these that swarms of developers are now working on providing via the cloud. Think of Apple’s Siri software on the iPhone. You ask it a question, it goes off to a monster data center, parses all the information available and returns you an answer. All in seconds.Which is of course where superfast connectivity comes in. Get that and the unimaginable will happen.
  • Ironically the best chance you have of getting this today is if you live in rural Yorkshire. Fed up with being unplugged the great people at Br4n decided to lay their their own ‘fiber to the house’. And this is what they offer:
  • The Cloud is where all this data is being stored.The great beauty of Cloud technologies is that they allow anyone to scale up, or scale down, their technical infrastructure on demand.And the Cloud – probably – will save you money as you only pay for exactly what you need.And the Cloud will save you space as you no longer need to run server farms in houseAnd the Cloud will save you time and effort as you no longer have to manage all your own infrastrutcture.Which is all well and good but the big impact of The Cloud is that it sets you free.
  • It gives you freedom…..
  • The Cloud is the delivery mechanism for SaaS, Software as a Service. And what Software as a Service enables is for any company, big or small, to run the highest quality, most up to date software. And pay for it on a rolling per user subscription basis.No large setup costsb) No upfront licensing feesc) No hardware requirementsd) No IT supportYou simply want a service and you subscribe to it.And if you don’t want it, you stop paying.Such services include:a) Backup/Storage (Amazon S3 etc)b) CRM (Salesforce, Glasnost21 etc)c) Accounts (Sage, Quickbooks, NetSuite etc)d) Project Management & Collaboration (from simple Glasnost21 up to MS Project)e) Sales Pipeline Management (Salesforce, Glasnost21 etc)f) Email (Gmail etc)g) Word processing, spreadsheets (Google Docs et al)h) Increasingly your own business applications
  • Steve Jobs coined the term ‘the Post PC’ world. But he said that before it actually existed. Now it does. Globally more smartphones are sold each day than PC’s. And for the first time ever it is consumer technology that is leading the way over business tech.It used to be the case that the tools we had at work were better than we had at home. But now we are in the age of BYOD – bring your own device.And employees can now see great software is available on demand as well, and they want it. Just look how many people skirt around clunky Sharepoint and sign up for Dropbox instead.
  • With Cloud based services you always have the latest version of any software. No more using software from 3/5/7 years ago.
  • The real value and indeed the real importance of Cloud Computing is the effect it could have on the way work is conducted and how we all manage our businesses.There has been talk for years about the rise of the knowledge worker, the remote worker, the teleworker and the growing changes or pressures we all deal with in maintaining a life/work balance. Twenty years ago it was supposedly obvious that ‘the death of the office’ was nigh. Until recently though, not a lot actually changed. Offices remained the default workplace for nearly everyone. And nearly everyone worked from a fixed desk with a desktop PC set up specifically for them.The Cloud will finally bring about the disruptive change that has been talked about for so long.Make the most of your workplace, wherever that may be.This does not mean the end of the office, as for many areas of work it will remain so that the office is the best place to get things done. But frankly, whilst sometimes it might be nice to be fixed to a desk, with a fixed line phone and a hard wired large monitor I believe for an increasing number of people breaking those permanent ties to a desk will be a strong desire. Particularly amongst those most skilled workers who will gravitate to employers that set them free.
  • The Internet of Things is all about connecting physical objects, rather than people, to the Internet. Within the real estate world this may mean connecting every device, machine or miscellaneous object relating to your systems for managing Energy, Lighting, Heating and Cooling, fire safety and security. Or every door, every window. The point is that anything where value can be obtained through monitoring will become a node on a network. And controllable via the internet.
  • And we now have the ability to do this because we now have, via IPV6, enough IP addresses available to connect anything we want.
  • Why is it a megatrend for commercial property?Because the Smart City is coming, and that will mean that everything is connected to everything else and all these ‘things’ will be talking to each other via the internet. And this will enable us to optimize the built environment around us. The big opportunity is for our industry to look at how it can provide value added analysis of this data as we should be in the best position to know what is required to make the physical world around us operate more effectively and efficientlyAfter all do we want to give all the spoils to IBM? This will be a huge industry – a multi billion pound market. I do not understand why the commercial property industry isn’t working more aggressively to take a slice of it.
  • Now, you may say that a lot of the above monitoring is and has been possible for a while, and indeed it has. The big difference though is that by connecting this data to the internet, in real time, enables us to plug it in to Cloud based analytics software and thus extract much more insight than previously possible. And this insight will lead to the services that will enable far more efficient and effective management of the environment around us.
  • In iOS7, which has just been released by Apple, they’ve introduced what are know as iBeacons. One use of these is pretty much the holy grail for retailers or retail property owners. With an app and ibeacons you could welcome a customer as they walk in to your store, or shopping centre, guide them around the store or centre, show them product information and promotions for any item they look at, and then let them buy something on the spot, via their app. No queing, no hassle. Friction free retail. Customised to every individual.
  • The current cutting edge Google self driving car.Generating 1Gb of data a second.
  • Citywide dashboard created by the CASA research lab at UCL
  • You and your people  will work differently - whatever information you need will be available whereverFilter failure will give way to contextual serendipityHow clients - everyone - uses real estate will change.
  • You and your people will work differently :whatever information you need will be available wherever
  • Maybe Google Glass?
  • As we talked about earlier, software will improve to provide better filters that are aware of where I am, what I am doing, and what information I need.I don’t want 1000 possible answers. I want just one. Or perhaps a few possible options. But reflecting the context in which I have asked the question.
  • Nykredit's headquartersAnd of course how clients – everyone - uses real estate will change. Quite how this will pan out we do not know but reflecting the four tech megatrends we’ve been discussing it won’t involve a fixed line telephone on a fixed desk with a fixed PC and fixed monitor.
  • You and your people  will work differently - whatever information you need will be available whereverFilter failure will give way to contextual serendipityHow clients - everyone - uses real estate will change.
  • Transcript

    • 1. 4 Tech megatrends Antony Slumbers, MD, Estates Today
    • 2. “a solution in search of a problem”
    • 3. Mobile
    • 4. 207,000,000 Smartphones Q4 2012
    • 5. One in three of all page views are now from phone or tablet
    • 6. 13-fold growth in data traffic predicted from 2012-2017
    • 7. 90 seconds
    • 8. 262%
    • 9. 87%
    • 10. “The UK’s first mobile Christmas”
    • 11. The Connective Tissue that “allows the modern world to function”
    • 12. Hello Goodbye
    • 13. iPhone just 6 years old. Do you remember the clamshell razr? Smart phones are not phones
    • 14. fibre = Driverless cars Real time language translation Real time satellite mapping Voice controlled search
    • 15. UK government aims for 2 Mb/s by 2015 South Korea: 2 Gb/s
    • 16. 3 The Cloud Freedom at last
    • 17. Freedom…
    • 18. …to compete on a level playing field
    • 19. …to Bring Your Own Device
    • 20. …that comes from always being up to date
    • 21. …to work where and when you want
    • 22. 4 The Internet of Things
    • 23. 340,282,366,920,938,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
    • 24. Why is this a megatrend for commercial property?
    • 25. The “Smart City” is coming Opportunity to develop wide range of new services
    • 26. Is there a roadmap?
    • 27. Real time information on the availability of parking spaces. And of course directions to get to them
    • 28. Street lighting that adapts to weather, time of day and traffic or pedestrian flows
    • 29. Access control to restricted areas and detection of people in non-authorized areas
    • 30. Self-monitoring equipment, providing advance warning of problems
    • 31. Self-monitoring equipment, providing advance warning of problems
    • 32. To sum up…
    • 33. You and your people will work differently :whatever information you need will be available wherever
    • 34. 20 Fenchurch Street The “Walkie Talkie” Size: 62,895 sqm Availability: 29,446 sqm Developer: Canary Wharf Group PLC Land Securities Agent: Knight Frank, CBRE
    • 35. Filter failure will give way to contextual serendipity
    • 36. How clients - everyone - uses real estate will change.
    • 37. Computing is not about computers any more. It is about living. Nicholas Negroponte, Founder MIT Media Labs

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