Tectonic Shifts In The Geography Of R&D

Tectonic Shifts in the Geography of R&D The Next Fifty Years Anthony Townsend I Research Director, Technology Horizons Program INSTITUTE FOR THE FUTURE International Association of Science Parks Barcelona, Spain July 2-4, 2007

Institute for the Future: A Silicon Valley perspective

The Delta Scan: A 50-year forecast of science & technology trends

Tectonic shifts in R&D: 3 big trends shaping the next 50 years
Globalization of R&D
Explosion of new R&D forms
Science returns to the city

Globalization of R&D: Rise of China and India
“ A 2006 survey of 186 of the world's biggest corporations found that 77% of new R&D centers over the next three years will go up in one of these two emerging economic superpowers.”
BusinessWeek 10 May 2006

Rise of China and India: Drivers
Reason #1: Localizing R&D
Close to emerging markets
Close to manufacturing
Reason #2: Lower costs
Reason #3: Future Innovation
From “brain drain” to “brain circulation”

Globalization of R&D: Small science powers
As China and India take on the West, smaller countries will develop specialized R&D niches.
In biomedical industry:
Singapore: pharmaceuticals
Israel: medical devices
Iceland: genetics
South Korea: bioengineering

Globalization of R&D: “embedded innovation” at Procter & Gamble

Explosion of New R&D Forms: The corporate side
From…
Corporate R&D
internal
centralized
To…
Embedded, distributed labs
Venture funds & start-ups
Spin-offs
Knowledge spot markets
Contract labs
Independent labs
IP shops
And beyond…

Explosion of New R&D Forms: democratized and distributed innovation
Democratized forms
Open science and knowledge commons
Amateur renaissance
DIY movement - open source for hardware
Distributed tools
Desktop supercomputing
Desktop fabrication
Backyard biology

Science Returns to the City: Cities are More Innovative
Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities. Luis M. A. Bettencourt, Jos e Lobo, Dirk Helbing, Christian Kuhnert, and Geoffrey B. West. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 16 April 2007.

Science Returns to the City: New places for R&D Biopolis | JTC University Park @ MIT | Forest City Genentech Hall | UCSF East River Science Park | Alexandria

“ Urban” Cross-Roads: Nexus at Stanford’s Bio-X

“ tribal” labs: MIT’s Stata Center

Science Returns to the City: Smart Environments for Social Collaboration

What Does This Mean for Science Parks?
Three questions for you:
How will you connect to global innovation networks?
How will you accommodate and enable new forms of R&D?
How will you create more places for casual encounters and digitally-enhanced collaboration?

blog future.iftf.org corporate www.iftf.org 50yr S&T scan www.deltascan.org

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Tectonic Shifts In The Geography Of R&D

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