Tectonic Shifts in the Geography of R&D The Next Fifty Years Anthony Townsend I Research Director, Technology Horizons Program INSTITUTE FOR THE FUTURE International Association of Science Parks Barcelona, Spain July 2-4, 2007

Institute for the Future: A Silicon Valley perspective

The Delta Scan: A 50-year forecast of science & technology trends

Tectonic shifts in R&D: 3 big trends shaping the next 50 years Globalization of R&D Explosion of new R&D forms Science returns to the city

Globalization of R&D

Explosion of new R&D forms

Science returns to the city

Globalization of R&D: Rise of China and India “ A 2006 survey of 186 of the world's biggest corporations found that 77% of new R&D centers over the next three years will go up in one of these two emerging economic superpowers.” BusinessWeek 10 May 2006

“ A 2006 survey of 186 of the world's biggest corporations found that 77% of new R&D centers over the next three years will go up in one of these two emerging economic superpowers.”

BusinessWeek 10 May 2006

Rise of China and India: Drivers Reason #1: Localizing R&D Close to emerging markets Close to manufacturing Reason #2: Lower costs Reason #3: Future Innovation From “brain drain” to “brain circulation”

Reason #1: Localizing R&D

Close to emerging markets

Close to manufacturing

Reason #2: Lower costs

Reason #3: Future Innovation

From “brain drain” to “brain circulation”

Globalization of R&D: Small science powers As China and India take on the West, smaller countries will develop specialized R&D niches. In biomedical industry: Singapore: pharmaceuticals Israel: medical devices Iceland: genetics South Korea: bioengineering

As China and India take on the West, smaller countries will develop specialized R&D niches.

In biomedical industry:

Singapore: pharmaceuticals

Israel: medical devices

Iceland: genetics

South Korea: bioengineering

Globalization of R&D: “embedded innovation” at Procter & Gamble

Explosion of New R&D Forms: The corporate side From… Corporate R&D internal centralized To… Embedded, distributed labs Venture funds & start-ups Spin-offs Knowledge spot markets Contract labs Independent labs IP shops And beyond…

From…

Corporate R&D

internal

centralized

To…

Embedded, distributed labs

Venture funds & start-ups

Spin-offs

Knowledge spot markets

Contract labs

Independent labs

IP shops

And beyond…

Explosion of New R&D Forms: democratized and distributed innovation Democratized forms Open science and knowledge commons Amateur renaissance DIY movement - open source for hardware Distributed tools Desktop supercomputing Desktop fabrication Backyard biology

Democratized forms

Open science and knowledge commons

Amateur renaissance

DIY movement - open source for hardware

Distributed tools

Desktop supercomputing

Desktop fabrication

Backyard biology

Science Returns to the City: Cities are More Innovative Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities. Luis M. A. Bettencourt, Jos e Lobo, Dirk Helbing, Christian Kuhnert, and Geoffrey B. West. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 16 April 2007.

Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities. Luis M. A. Bettencourt, Jos e Lobo, Dirk Helbing, Christian Kuhnert, and Geoffrey B. West. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 16 April 2007.

Science Returns to the City: New places for R&D Biopolis | JTC University Park @ MIT | Forest City Genentech Hall | UCSF East River Science Park | Alexandria

“ Urban” Cross-Roads: Nexus at Stanford’s Bio-X

“ tribal” labs: MIT’s Stata Center

Science Returns to the City: Smart Environments for Social Collaboration

What Does This Mean for Science Parks? Three questions for you: How will you connect to global innovation networks? How will you accommodate and enable new forms of R&D? How will you create more places for casual encounters and digitally-enhanced collaboration?

Three questions for you:

How will you connect to global innovation networks?

How will you accommodate and enable new forms of R&D?

How will you create more places for casual encounters and digitally-enhanced collaboration?

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