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Tectonic Shifts In The Geography Of R&D
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Tectonic Shifts In The Geography Of R&D

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Plenary lecture by Anthony Townsend at the XXIV World Conference of the International Association of Science Parks in Barcelona, July 2007.

Plenary lecture by Anthony Townsend at the XXIV World Conference of the International Association of Science Parks in Barcelona, July 2007.

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  • I’d like to share with you some brief thoughts about how R&D is changing

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  • 1. Tectonic Shifts in the Geography of R&D The Next Fifty Years Anthony Townsend I Research Director, Technology Horizons Program INSTITUTE FOR THE FUTURE International Association of Science Parks Barcelona, Spain July 2-4, 2007
  • 2. Institute for the Future: A Silicon Valley perspective
  • 3. The Delta Scan: A 50-year forecast of science & technology trends
  • 4. Tectonic shifts in R&D: 3 big trends shaping the next 50 years
    • Globalization of R&D
    • Explosion of new R&D forms
    • Science returns to the city
  • 5. Globalization of R&D: Rise of China and India
    • “ A 2006 survey of 186 of the world's biggest corporations found that 77% of new R&D centers over the next three years will go up in one of these two emerging economic superpowers.”
    • BusinessWeek 10 May 2006
  • 6. Rise of China and India: Drivers
    • Reason #1: Localizing R&D
      • Close to emerging markets
      • Close to manufacturing
    • Reason #2: Lower costs
    • Reason #3: Future Innovation
      • From “brain drain” to “brain circulation”
  • 7. Globalization of R&D: Small science powers
    • As China and India take on the West, smaller countries will develop specialized R&D niches.
    • In biomedical industry:
    • Singapore: pharmaceuticals
    • Israel: medical devices
    • Iceland: genetics
    • South Korea: bioengineering
  • 8. Globalization of R&D: “embedded innovation” at Procter & Gamble
  • 9. Explosion of New R&D Forms: The corporate side
    • From…
    • Corporate R&D
      • internal
      • centralized
    • To…
    • Embedded, distributed labs
    • Venture funds & start-ups
    • Spin-offs
    • Knowledge spot markets
    • Contract labs
    • Independent labs
    • IP shops
    • And beyond…
  • 10. Explosion of New R&D Forms: democratized and distributed innovation
    • Democratized forms
    • Open science and knowledge commons
    • Amateur renaissance
    • DIY movement - open source for hardware
    • Distributed tools
    • Desktop supercomputing
    • Desktop fabrication
    • Backyard biology
  • 11. Science Returns to the City: Cities are More Innovative
    • Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities. Luis M. A. Bettencourt, Jos e Lobo, Dirk Helbing, Christian Kuhnert, and Geoffrey B. West. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 16 April 2007.
  • 12. Science Returns to the City: New places for R&D Biopolis | JTC University Park @ MIT | Forest City Genentech Hall | UCSF East River Science Park | Alexandria
  • 13. “ Urban” Cross-Roads: Nexus at Stanford’s Bio-X
  • 14. “ tribal” labs: MIT’s Stata Center
  • 15. Science Returns to the City: Smart Environments for Social Collaboration
  • 16. What Does This Mean for Science Parks?
    • Three questions for you:
    • How will you connect to global innovation networks?
    • How will you accommodate and enable new forms of R&D?
    • How will you create more places for casual encounters and digitally-enhanced collaboration?
  • 17. blog future.iftf.org corporate www.iftf.org 50yr S&T scan www.deltascan.org