Tectonic Shifts In The Geography Of R&D


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Plenary lecture by Anthony Townsend at the XXIV World Conference of the International Association of Science Parks in Barcelona, July 2007.

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  • I’d like to share with you some brief thoughts about how R&D is changing
  • Tectonic Shifts In The Geography Of R&D

    1. 1. Tectonic Shifts in the Geography of R&D The Next Fifty Years Anthony Townsend I Research Director, Technology Horizons Program INSTITUTE FOR THE FUTURE International Association of Science Parks Barcelona, Spain July 2-4, 2007
    2. 2. Institute for the Future: A Silicon Valley perspective
    3. 3. The Delta Scan: A 50-year forecast of science & technology trends
    4. 4. Tectonic shifts in R&D: 3 big trends shaping the next 50 years <ul><li>Globalization of R&D </li></ul><ul><li>Explosion of new R&D forms </li></ul><ul><li>Science returns to the city </li></ul>
    5. 5. Globalization of R&D: Rise of China and India <ul><li>“ A 2006 survey of 186 of the world's biggest corporations found that 77% of new R&D centers over the next three years will go up in one of these two emerging economic superpowers.” </li></ul><ul><li>BusinessWeek 10 May 2006 </li></ul>
    6. 6. Rise of China and India: Drivers <ul><li>Reason #1: Localizing R&D </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Close to emerging markets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Close to manufacturing </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Reason #2: Lower costs </li></ul><ul><li>Reason #3: Future Innovation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>From “brain drain” to “brain circulation” </li></ul></ul>
    7. 7. Globalization of R&D: Small science powers <ul><li>As China and India take on the West, smaller countries will develop specialized R&D niches. </li></ul><ul><li>In biomedical industry: </li></ul><ul><li>Singapore: pharmaceuticals </li></ul><ul><li>Israel: medical devices </li></ul><ul><li>Iceland: genetics </li></ul><ul><li>South Korea: bioengineering </li></ul>
    8. 8. Globalization of R&D: “embedded innovation” at Procter & Gamble
    9. 9. Explosion of New R&D Forms: The corporate side <ul><li>From… </li></ul><ul><li>Corporate R&D </li></ul><ul><ul><li>internal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>centralized </li></ul></ul><ul><li>To… </li></ul><ul><li>Embedded, distributed labs </li></ul><ul><li>Venture funds & start-ups </li></ul><ul><li>Spin-offs </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge spot markets </li></ul><ul><li>Contract labs </li></ul><ul><li>Independent labs </li></ul><ul><li>IP shops </li></ul><ul><li>And beyond… </li></ul>
    10. 10. Explosion of New R&D Forms: democratized and distributed innovation <ul><li>Democratized forms </li></ul><ul><li>Open science and knowledge commons </li></ul><ul><li>Amateur renaissance </li></ul><ul><li>DIY movement - open source for hardware </li></ul><ul><li>Distributed tools </li></ul><ul><li>Desktop supercomputing </li></ul><ul><li>Desktop fabrication </li></ul><ul><li>Backyard biology </li></ul>
    11. 11. Science Returns to the City: Cities are More Innovative <ul><li>Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities. Luis M. A. Bettencourt, Jos e Lobo, Dirk Helbing, Christian Kuhnert, and Geoffrey B. West. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 16 April 2007. </li></ul>
    12. 12. Science Returns to the City: New places for R&D Biopolis | JTC University Park @ MIT | Forest City Genentech Hall | UCSF East River Science Park | Alexandria
    13. 13. “ Urban” Cross-Roads: Nexus at Stanford’s Bio-X
    14. 14. “ tribal” labs: MIT’s Stata Center
    15. 15. Science Returns to the City: Smart Environments for Social Collaboration
    16. 16. What Does This Mean for Science Parks? <ul><li>Three questions for you: </li></ul><ul><li>How will you connect to global innovation networks? </li></ul><ul><li>How will you accommodate and enable new forms of R&D? </li></ul><ul><li>How will you create more places for casual encounters and digitally-enhanced collaboration? </li></ul>
    17. 17. blog future.iftf.org corporate www.iftf.org 50yr S&T scan www.deltascan.org