Presentation GM IBF, Anish Jain - seminar on S&OP organized by Advance School with IBF, may the 20th , Italy

1. 1
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
MISSION
STATEMENT:
“To
Foster
the
Growth
of
Demand
Planning,
Forecas9ng,
S&OP,
and
the
Careers
of
those
in
the
Field”

2. 2
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
• Consumers
are
less
loyal
• Short
life-­‐cycle
products
• Highly
promoted
products
• Greater
channels
of
distribu:on
• Greater
number
of
new
products
• Greater
number
of
SKU’s
(Expanding
product
porBolio)
• Longer
lead
:mes
to
produce
goods
• Greater
compe::on
Today’s Challenges & Risks

3. 3
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
Agenda
For
Today

4. 4
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
• How
the
S&OP
process
works
• What
types
of
obstacles
you’re
likely
to
face
with
S&OP
and
how
to
overcome
them
• What
benefits
companies
have
derived
by
implemen:ng
the
S&OP
process
• Benchmarking
Research
• About
the
IBF
and
Cer:fica:on
Agenda
For
Today

5. 5
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
BENCHMARKING
RESEARCH

6. 6
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
Do
you
have
an
S&OP
process
in
place?

7. 7
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
Does
Conflict
of
Interest
Get
in
the
Way
of
Improving
Planning
Performance?
31%
69%

8. 8
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
Support
of
TOP
MANAGEMENT
for
S&OP?

9. 9
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
How
do
you
measure
S&OP
Effec3veness?
21%
32%
54%
57%
53%
8%

10. 10
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
Does
your
company
follow
a
one
set
of
numbers
forecast
philosophy?

11. 11
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
How
o`en
do
you
hold
forecast
consensus
mee3ngs?

12. 12
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
Which
type
of
data
does
your
company
use
most
in
preparing
forecasts?
31%
71%
37%
7%

13. 13
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
Where
does
the
forecas3ng
func3on
reside
within
your
company?
10%
19%
9%
9%
65%
6%
6%

14. 14
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved

15. 15
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
Forecas3ng
Salaries
–
All
Industries

16. 16
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
Forecas3ng
Salaries
–
Academic
Backgrounds

17. 17
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
Forecas3ng
Salaries
–
Size
of
Companies

18. 18
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
Forecas3ng
Salaries
–
So`ware
Used

19. 19
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
What IBF Does

20. 20
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
What IBF Does
• Benchmarking Research
• Journal of Business Forecasting (JBF)
• Global Events & Chapters
• Educational Books
• Membership
• Certification
• Corporate Training
• Assessments

21. 21
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved

22. 22
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved

23. 23
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved

24. 24
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
ADVANCING
WITH
IBF

25. 25
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
IBF
CERTIFICATION
VIDEO
Please
watch
this
youtube
video
by
the
Director
of
Demand
Planning
from
Estee
Lauder:
hSp://youtu.be/n49R-­‐8iE40c

26. 26
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
IBF
CERTIFICATION

27. 27
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
Companies with IBF Certification (Partial List)
Abbott
Acuity Brands Lighting
ADC Telecommunications
Alberto Culver
Alcatel-Lucent
American Italian Pasta Company
American Red Cross
American Textile Company
Amway
Anderson Windows
Andrew Corporation
Anteon Corp
AOL
AstraZeneca
Aveda
Aventis Pharmaceuticals
Baker Oil Tools
Barnes Distribution
BASF Corp
Baxter Healthcare
Bayer
Best Buy
Biomarin
Black & Decker
British Gypsum
Brown Forman
Capital One
Carhartt
Cartech
Caterpillar
Celgene
Char-broil
Chemtura
Chevron Texaco
Cisco Systems
Cleco, Inc.
CNH Global
Con Edison
Conros Corporation
Continental Tire
Cooper Lighting
Cordis
Corning Cable Systems
Coty Inc.
Cummins
Day Spring Cards
Dealer Tire
Delta
Delta Faucet
Deluxe Corporation
Depuy Orthopaedics
DePuy Spine
Discover Financial
Disney
Dorel Juvenile Group
Dorman Products
Dow Corning
Dupont
E & J Gallo Winery Canada
EAS
East Penn Manufacturing
Eaton Filtration GmbH
Edmund Optics
Eircom
Elkay
EMD Chemicals
Emerson Process
Emirates Telecommunication Cooperation
Emyco
ESAB
FedEx
Fisher Scientific
Fruit of the Loom
Fuji Photo Film USA
Gap
GE
General Mills
Georgia Pacific
GlaxoSmithKline
Globe Electric
Goodyear
Graco Children's Products
Grundfos Pump Corp.
Hanes Brands
Heineken
Heinz
Hewlett Packard
Hollister
Hypro Pumps
Infosys Technologies Ltd
Intuit
Invitrogen
Ipex Inc.
John Deere
Johnson & Johnson
Juno Lighting Group
Lafarge North America
Land O'Lakes
Lifescan
Lilly
Logitech
MAC
Manhattan Toy
Maple Leaf Foods
McCormick
Mead Johnson
Melaleuca
Mepha Ltd.
Merrill Lynch
Michelin
Microsoft
Mine Safety Appliances
Monster Cable Products
Motorola Inc
Nature's Path Foods
Neiman Marcus
Nestle
Netjets
Nordstrom
Norfolk Southern Corporation
Noveon
Novozymes
Nuskin
Oberto
Ogio, Intl.
ON Semiconductor Corp.
OnStar
Oracle Corporation
Panasonic
Pepsico
Pfizer, Inc.
Pharmavite
Philip Morris
Prevost Parts
Primus Canada
Procter & Gamble
Quantum Corporation
Rand McNally
Research In Motion
Revlon
Rich-Sea Pak Corp
Roche Diagnostics
Rubbermaid
Sanford
Sappi Fine Paper
Sara Lee
Sartomer
Satyam
Saudi Aramco
SBC Communications
SC Johnson
SCA Tissue
Scholastic Book Fairs
Scunci International
Sealed Air
Sears
Shire Pharmaceuticals Inc
Sigma Aldrich
Smith & Nephew
Sony
Spring Industries
Standard Textile, Inc.
Sun Chemical
Syngenta
SYSCO Food Systems
TastyKake
Tektronix
Tennant Company Manufacturing
Teva Pharmaceuticals
Texas A&M University
The Boeing Company
The Hartz Mountain Corp
The Scotts Company
The Toro Company
Thermatru
Timberland
T-Mobile
Turtle Wax, Inc.
Tyson Foods
Under Armour
Unilever
UnitedHealthcare
University of Notre Dame
USAA
USG
Victoria's Secret Stores
Vi-Jon Laboratories
Wal-Mart Stores
Walt Disney World
Welch's
Whirlpool
Woodward
World Kitchen
Wrigley
Wyeth Pharmaceuticals
Xcel Energy
Yokohama Tire
Zytec

28. 28
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
IBF
Cer3fica3on
The
IBF
is
a
pioneer
in
developing
a
Demand
Planning,
Forecas:ng,
and
S&OP
Cer:fica:on
program
that
helps
boost
creden:als,
as
well
as
gives
management
greater
confidence
in
its
people.
The
IBF
offers
two
levels
of
cer:fica:on:
1. Cer3fied
Professional
Forecaster
(CPF®)
2. Advanced
Cer3fied
Professional
Forecaster
(ACPF®)

29. 29
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
IBF
CPF
Exam
Content
Summary
Exam
1
– Role
of
Forecas:ng
&
Planning
in
Decision
Making
– Demand
Planning
(Demand
Sensing,
Shaping,
&
Crea:ng)
– Forecas:ng
&
Planning
Process
– Consump:on
(POS
Data)
Based
Forecas:ng
&
Planning
– Consensus
Forecas:ng
&
Planning
– Sales
&
Opera:ons
Planning
(S&OP)
Process
– Collabora:ve,
Planning,
Forecas:ng,
&
Replenishment
(CPFR)
Exam
2
– Data
Analysis
&
Treatment
– Fundamentals
of
Models
&
Modeling
– Types
of
Models
– Time
Series
Models
– Model
Selec:on
– Metrics:
Measuring
Forecast
Error
and
Performance
Exam
3
– Forecast
Repor:ng
&
Presenta:on
– Forecast
Communica:on
– Winning
Support
and
Confidence
of
Management
– Gaining
Buy-­‐in
from
Stakeholders
– New
Product
Forecas:ng

30. 30
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
CPF
Exams
• 3
Exams
–100
to
150
ques:ons
• Exams
Taken
Individually
–
Objec:ve
Tests,
Mul:ple
Choice
• 2
Hours
per
Exam
• CPF
is
earned
when
70%
or
higher
is
scored
for
each
exam
individually

31. 31
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
IBF
ACPF
Exam
Content
Summary
Exam
4
– Regression/
Cause
&
Effect
Models
– Types
of
Regression
Models
– Assump:ons
of
a
Simple
Regression
Model
– Steps
to
Build
a
Regression
Model
– Diagnos:c
Tools
for
Assessing
Regression
Models
– Development
and
Applica:on
of
Dummy
Variables
in
Mul:ple
Regression
– Improving
a
Mul:ple
Regression
Model
– ARIMA/Box-­‐Jenkins
Modeling
– Assump:ons
of
ARIMA
Modeling
– ARIMA
Models
vs.
Regression
Models
– Types
of
ARIMA
Models
– Steps
to
Build
an
ARIMA
Model
– Improving
ARIMA
Models
Exam
5
– Forecas:ng
&
Planning
Technology
– Forecas:ng
Package
vs.
Forecas:ng
System
– Selec:ng
a
Forecas:ng
Package
– Technology
Capabili:es
– Scalability
– Forecas:ng
System
Implementa:on
– Worst
Prac:ces
in
Forecas:ng
&
Demand
Planning

32. 32
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
ACPF
Exams
• 2
Exams
• Exams
Taken
Individually
–
Objec:ve
Tests
(Mul:ple
Choice)
• 2
Hours
per
Exam
• Must
be
CPF
• ACPF
is
earned
when
70%
or
higher
is
scored
for
each
exam
individually

33. 33
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
Study
Materials
Provided
&
Prepara3on
• Study
Materials:
CPF
&
ACPF
– Fundamentals
of
Demand
Planning
&
Forecas:ng
Book
(inclusive
of
glossary)
• Prepara:on
– IBF
Tutorials/
Forecas:ng
Academy
– IBF
Sta:s:cal
Workshops
– IBF
In-­‐House
Seminars
– IBF
Online
Training
– IBF
Cer:fica:on
Review
Course
– Professional
Experience

34. 34
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved

35. 35
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved

36. 36
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
Cer3fica3on
Period
&
Renewal
Requirements
• Ini:al
Cer:fica:on
Period
=
4
Years
• Cer:fica:on
Renewals
Every
4
Years
• Con:nuing
Educa:on
Points
for
Renewal
without
Reexamina:on
– CPF:
40
CE
Points
for
Renewal
– ACPF:
50
CE
Points
for
Renewal
• Candidate
can
also
choose
to
re-­‐take
exams
to
renew
cer:fica:on

37. 37
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
Re-­‐Cer3fica3on
ACTIVITY*
POINTS EARNED
Attend an IBF Conference/ Seminar/ Workshop/ Boot Camp
10 pts
Attend IBF's In-House Training
5 pts
IBF Membership per year
5 pts
IBF Online education per course
3 pts
Attend another forecasting & planning related conference,
1.5 days+ (Supply Chain, Analytics, Planning, etc.)
5 pts
Serve on an IBF Board or Committee
5 pts. per year of service
Publish original research on forecasting & planning
10 pts per publication
Publish an article or blog on forecasting & planning
5 pts. per article published
Speak at a forecasting & planning conference
5 pts per presentation
Speak for a forecasting & planning webinar
5 pts per presentation
Be an IBF Ambassador or Volunteer
5 pts per engagement
Successful completion of an academic course in
forecasting & planning
3 pts per credit hour
IBF Chapter Meeting
3 pts
IBF Webinar
2 pts
*One
can
propose
other
ac:vi:es
that
are
“external”
to
the
organiza:on
that
proves
staying
abreast
with
forecas:ng
&
planning

38. 38
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
IBF
Awards
-­‐
2013
Winners
Charles
W.
Chase,
Jr.
(pictured
right)
Chief
Industry
Consultant
Demand
Solu3ons
SAS
Ins3tute
Alan
Milliken
(pictured
le`)
Senior
Manager
-­‐
Supply
Chain
Educa3on
BASF
Corpora3on

39. 39
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
IBF
Dubai
(pictured
right)
IBF
Sconsdale
(pictured
Le`)
IBF
Event
Photo’s

40. 40
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
Visit
the
IBF’s
Website:
www.ibf.org
Phone:
+1.516.504.7576
Email:
info@ibf.org
Thank
You
-­‐
Get
Social
with
IBF
LinkedIn:
hnp://bit.ly/4p52bV
Twiner:
hnp://twiner.com/DemandPlanning
Facebook:
hnp://facebook.com/DemandPlanning
IBF
Blog:
hnp://demand-­‐planning.com
Google+:
hnps://plus.google.com/102918104859511378565/
Anish
Jain
Email:
anish.jain@ibf.org
Linkedin:
www.linkedin.com/in/anishkjain/

41. 41
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
IBF
BOARD
OF
ADVISORS

42. 42
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
IBF
Board
of
Advisors
John Gallucci
Senior Director of Planning
Pinnacle Foods Group
Curtis Brewer, CPF
Head of Consumer Forecasting
Bayer Cropscience
Mark Covas
Senior Director of Demand Planning
Georgia-Pacific
Alan Milliken, CPF
Global Business Process
Education Manager
BASF Corporation
Dr. Larry Lapide
Research Affiliate
MIT
Steve Tribou
VP of Account Planning
Carter’s/Oshkosh
Richard Herrin, CPF
Director of Supply Chain
Georgia Gulf Corporation/ Axiall
Jay Nearnberg
Senior Director
Global Demand Planning
Novartis

43. 43
Fostering
Demand
Planning,
Forecas3ng,
S&OP
for
30+
Years!
Copyright
©
2014
by
Ins3tute
of
Business
Forecas3ng.
All
rights
reserved
IBF
Board
of
Advisors
(Con3nued)
Dr. Barry Keating
Professor
University of Notre Dame
Max Colao
Executive Director – New
Products Marketing
AMGEN
Dr. Alex Safavi
Director of Forecasting
Rockwell Collins
Grant Hoffman, CPF
Vice President of Supply Chain
Motorola Mobility/ Google
Randy Wilp
Leader of Global Commercial
Forecasting
Merck & Co., Inc.
Dr. Chaman L. Jain
Chief Editor, Journal of Business
Forecasting (JBF)
Professor, St. John’s University
(New York)