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Setting the scene: The French and European Aviation Market

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The Dôme at Disneyland® Paris was the venue this week for the 9th annual gathering of delegates, speakers and exhibitors at FrenchConnect. In a packed two-day programme, hosted by Aéroport Paris …

The Dôme at Disneyland® Paris was the venue this week for the 9th annual gathering of delegates, speakers and exhibitors at FrenchConnect. In a packed two-day programme, hosted by Aéroport Paris Vatry, a record number of delegates heard presentations and discussion from over 40 speakers and panel members on a wide variety of topics relating to the French and European aviation market. anna.aero’s Editor Ralph Anker gave the first keynote speech: “Setting the scene: The French and European Aviation Market”. His presentation, which contains many graphs and tables not previously published on anna.aero

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  • 1. The French and European aviation market 9th FrenchConnect – Disneyland® Paris 19 March 2012 Ralph Anker Editor anna.aero ralph.anker@anna.aero
  • 2. What’s coming up … • Developments in Europe 2010-2012 • France: – French airport traffic development in 2011 – Leading country markets and airlines in S12 v S11 – Domestic market 2000-2012 • Inter-regional route stimulation by LCCs – New French routes 2011 analysed – Air France’s regional “hubs” – New French routes 2012 analysed • Europe: – Comparison of airport growth across Europe in 2011 – International country-pair and domestic capacity S12 v S11 – GDP forecasts • Conclusions2
  • 3. Developments in Europe 2010 • Lots of airlines made money despite rising fuel costs! • Icelandic ash cloud caused problems in April • Various countries affected by industrial action – Airline strikes – ATC strikes – General strikes • BA and Iberia merged to create IAG  • Aegean and Olympic did not merge  • No major airline failures – Just a few niche carriers such as Athens Airways, Andalus Lineas Aereas, Blue Wings, Hamburg International, Star13
  • 4. Developments in Europe 2011 • No major flight disruptions due to natural phenomena – Some disruption due to industrial action • Lufthansa decides to sell bmi; IAG close to deal? • Germany and Austria introduced additional air taxes • Flybe launches Nordic operations • “Arab spring”: Social unrest in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain • Europe’s ‘legacy’ airlines struggle for profits – Major LCCs still making decent money • Ryanair opens bases in Gran Canaria, Tenerife, Lanzarote & Manchester • Frankfurt opens third runway4
  • 5. Developments in Europe 2012 • Aviation joins EU ETS in 2012 • Collapse of two significant European airlines in early 2012 – Malev (Hungary) & Spanair (Spain): who’s next? • AirAsia X departs Europe, Hong Kong Airlines arrives • Fuel prices remaining high – EU economy still struggling • easyJet opens news bases in London Southend, Lisbon, Nice and Toulouse • Ryanair opens new bases in Billund, Budapest, Karlsruhe- Baden, Palma de Mallorca and Paphos (‘50th’) • First appearance of 787 in Europe (HND-FRA)5
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  • 8. Largest French Airports: LCC impact Airport Pax:11 % vly LCC:11 LCC% LCC “growth” 1 Nice 10.42m +8.5% 3.43m 33% +16.6% 2 Lyon 8.44m +5.7% 1.76m 21% +20.0% 3 Marseille 7.36m -2.1% 1.39m 19% -19.9% 4 Toulouse 6.99m +9.1% 1.61m 23% +32.5% 5 Basel-Mulhouse 5.05m +22.4% 2.61m 52% +33.2% 6 Bordeaux 4.11m +12.4% 0.98m 24% +28.9% 7 Paris Beauvais 3.68m +25.4% 3.68m 100% +25.4% 8 Nantes 3.25m +7.1% 0.71m 22% +8.3% 9 Montpellier 1.31m +11.3% 0.38m 29% +37.6% 10 Ajaccio 1.18m +5.5% 0.12m 10% -1.0% Source: www.aeroport.fr Paris CDG 60.97m +4.8% 5.43m 9% +13.0% Paris ORY 27.14m +7.7% 6.45m 24% +10.3%8
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  • 14. New French airport services Started operating between 1 January and 31 December 2011 Airport Routes Airlines included 1 Marseille 25 Air Corsica, Air France, Blue1, Iberia, jet4you, Ryanair, Transavia.com 2 Paris CDG 21 Aegean Airlines, Air France, Camair-Co, CSA Czech Airlines, easyJet, Sunwing, Vueling 3 Toulouse 16 Alitalia, easyJet, jet4you, Turkish, Vueling 4= Nantes 10 Air France, Eastern, easyJet, jet4you, Smartwings, Transavia.com, Vueling 4= Nice 10 bmi, Jet2.com, Norwegian, SAS, Smartwings, Spanair, Swiss, Transavia.com, Vueling 4= Paris Beauvais 10 Blue Air, Ryanair, Wizz Air 7 Paris Orly 8 AirAsia X, British Airways, easyJet, Vueling 8= Bordeaux 7 CSA, jet4you, Ryanair, TAP, Vueling 8= Montpellier 7 Air Arabia Maroc, Air France, Ryanair, Transavia 10 Lyon 5 Armavia, Chalair, easyJet, jet4you14
  • 15. New French airport routes Started operating between 1 January and 31 December 2011 • Total of 156 (171) new routes involving 31 (36) French airports and 43 (42) airlines (2010 figures for comparison) • Leading airlines: – Air France 31 new routes; average 5.0 weekly flights (155) – Ryanair 24 new routes; average 2.9 weekly flights (70) – Vueling 16 new routes; average 4.3 weekly flights (68) – easyJet 10 new routes; average 6.5 weekly flights (65) • Leading country markets (37 countries got new routes) – France 22 new routes (11 routes double-counted) – Italy 21 new routes – UK 20 new routes – Spain 17 new routes – Morocco 14 new routes15
  • 16. Air France’s regional hubs Marseille Toulouse Nice October 2011 April 2012 April 2012 Athens (4) Athens (4) Athens (3) Basel (7) Berlin Tegel (4) Naples (2) v easyJet Beirut (3) Casablanca (3) v RAM Tel Aviv (3) v Israir Biarritz (2) Hamburg (5) Venice (3) v easyJet Brest (7) v Ryanair Istanbul IST (3) v Turkish AL Casablanca (4) v RAM Malaga (3) v Vueling Copenhagen (2) Malta (2) Dusseldorf (7) Marrakech (2) v RAM Eindhoven (3) v Ryanair Naples (2) Istanbul IST (4) Prague (5) Moscow SVO (4) Seville (4) v Iberia Milan MXP (14) v Ryanair (BGY) Tunis (4) v Tunisair Prague (2) Venice (3) v easyJet, Vueling Vienna (4) March 2012 Barcelona (2) v Vueling Hamburg (4) Not starting Not starting Marrakech (3) v RAM, Ryanair Brussels v Brussels AL, easyJet Barcelona v easyJet, IB, Vueling Venice (5) Geneva v easyJet Istanbul v Turkish AL16
  • 17. New French airport services Planned to start between 1 January and 31 December 2012 Airport Routes Airlines included 1 Toulouse 23 Air France (15), easyJet (7), Jet2.oom 2 Nice 21 Air France (4), British Airways, easyJet (7), Jetairfly, Norwegian, SAS, Skywork, Swiss, Vueling 3 Marseille 14 Air France (5), Norwegian, Ryanair (7), Vueling 4= Paris CDG 10 10 different airlines! 4= Paris Orly 10 easyJet, Norwegian, Transavia.com, Vueling 6 Lyon 9 Air France, Camair-Co, easyJet, Lufthansa, Vueling 7 Nantes 8 Air France, easyJet, Vueling 8= Bordeaux 7 Air France, easyJet, Ryanair, Volotea, Vueling 8= Figari 7 Air Corsica, Air France, Skywork 8= Paris Beauvais 7 Ryanair, Wizz Air17
  • 18. New French airport routes Planned to start between 1 January and 31 December 2012 • Total of 167 (156) new routes involving 41 (31) French airports and 30 (43) airlines (2011 figures for comparison) • Leading airlines: – Air France 55 new routes; average 2.1 weekly flights (116) – Ryanair 25 new routes; average 3.4 weekly flights (84) – easyJet 24 new routes; average 3.6 weekly flights (86) – Vueling 17 new routes; average 3.5 weekly flights (59) • Leading country markets (33 countries to get new routes) – France 42 new routes (21 routes double-counted) – Spain 22 new routes – Italy 20 new routes – UK 17 new routes – Germany 9 new routes18
  • 19. LCCs still growing in 2011 pax up 5.1% to 76.4 million pax up 11.6% to 55.5 million pax up 20.5% to 15.7 million pax up 11.6% to 12.3 million pax up 32.2% to 11.3 million pax up 15.0% to 11.2 million pax down 2.7% to 7.5 million Top 7 European airlines in 2011 (by passengers): 1 – Ryanair (76.4m), 2 – Lufthansa (63.0m), 3 – easyJet (55.5m), 4 – Air France (49.7m), 5 – airberlin (35.3m), 6 – British Airways (34.0m), 7 - Turkish Airlines (31.5m)19
  • 20. Comparison across Europe Versus Germany, Italy, Spain and UK (2011) Country Airport pax % vly >1m* UK 222.3m +4.1% 21 Spain 204.4m +6.0% 24 Germany 199.2m +4.8% 18 France** 152.9m +6.6% 16 Italy 148.5m +6.4% 23 *Number of airports with more than 1 million annual passengers **Includes Basle-Mulhouse (BSL) airport. Excluding BSL, Italy would now be ahead of France (147.9m) Source: UK CAA, ADV, Aena, www.aeroport.fr, Assaeroporti20
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  • 22. Europe’s fastest growing / shrinking airports in 2011 Airport growth Airport decline Rimini (RMI) 66.8% Venice Treviso (TSF) -49.9% Perugia (PEG) 58.5% Forli (FRL) -46.1% Maastricht (MST) 40.7% Girona (GRO) -38.2% Oulu (OUL) 39.1% Lübeck (LBC) -36.0% Tallinn (TLL) 38.2% Newquay (NQY) -26.5% Nador (NDR) 29.5% Glasgow Prestwick (PIK) -21.9% Rovaniemi (RVN) 28.1% Bournemouth (BOH) -18.3% Brindisi (BDS) 28.1% Pamplona (PNA) -18.2% Gaziantep (GZT) 25.9% Kiruna (KRN) -17.8% Paris Beauvais (BVA) 25.4% Alexandroupolis (AXD) -17.5%22
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  • 26. Conclusions • Paris airports (BVA, CDG, ORY) account for only 25% of new French routes (39/156) in 2011 down from 30% in 2010. In 2012 (so far) Paris airports account for less than 20% of new French routes (27/167). • Capacity analysis indicates growth in Europe this summer but GDP forecasts suggest flat/declining economy. • Consistently high fuel prices (and worker relations?) will challenge airline profitability in 2012.26
  • 27. Thank you! To keep in touch with all the latest European airline route network news and analysis sign up now for your FREE weekly e-newsletter at www.anna.aero If your competitors are reading it (and they are!) shouldn’t you see what they know that you don’t?27
  • 28. Thank you!28

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