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Named after the Oracle at Delphi (Ancient Greece) - Oracle would answer (supposedly correctly, although cryptically) any question that was asked, assuming that the supplicant had sufficient gold
A consensus-based estimation technique for estimating effort
Developed in 40s at RAND Corp as a forecasting tool. Since been adapted across many industries for estimation.
Proven to be a very effective estimation tool, and it lends itself well to software projects.
Barry Boehm & John Farquhar originated Wideband variant of Delphi in 70s - Called "wideband" as compared to existing Delphi method, it involved greater interaction & more communication between participants.
Popularized by Boehm's book Software Engineering Economics (81).
A variant of Wideband Delphi was developed by Neil Potter and Mary Sakry of The Process Group.
Once results are ready PM calls a final meeting to review the estimation results with the team.
Goal of meeting is to determine whether the results of the session are sufficient for further planning. The team should determine whether the
Estimates make sense and if the range is acceptable. They should also examine the final task list to verify that it’s complete. There may be an area that needs to be refined:
For example, a task might need to be broken down into subtasks. In this case, the team may agree to hold another estimation session to break down those tasks into their own subtasks and estimate each of them.
This is also a good way to handle any tasks that have a wide discrepancy between the best-case and worst-case scenarios.
Pro xy B ased E stimating - introduced by Watts Humphrey (of the SEI at Carnegie Mellon University) as part of PSP
PROBE is based on the idea that if an engineer is building a component similar to one he built previously, then it will take about the same effort as it did in the past.
The Co nstructive Co st Mo del (COCOMO) is a software cost and schedule estimating method developed by Barry Boehm in the early 1980s.
Boehm developed COCOMO empirically by running a study of 63 software development projects and statistically analyzing their results.
COCOMO II developed in 90s as update - Incorporates 15 cost drivers, variables (software, computer, personnel, and project attributes) that is provided as input. The output of model is a set of size and effort estimates.
Software project planning method from Extreme Programming (XP), a lightweight development methodology developed by Kent Beck in the 1990s at Chrysler.