Securing India’s energy future Anil Kakodkar IIM, Bangalore, January 4, 2012
Securing energy for India’s future is a major challenge World OECD Non-OECD India India (developing world) of our dreamPopulation(billion) 6.7 1.18 5.52 1.2 1.6 (stabilised)Annualav. per capita ~2800 ~9000 ~1500 ~675 5000Electricity (kWh)AnnualElectricityGeneration 18.8 10.6 8.2 0.811 8.0(trillion kWh)Carbon-di-oxideEmission 30 13 17 1.7 ?(billion tons/yr)India alone would need around 40% of presentglobal electricity generation to be added to reachaverage 5000 kWh per capita electricity generation
Number of years a domestic non-renewable energy source (as known today) can last at 5000 kWh/capita electricity consumption in India (8 trillion units) Coal Hydro-carbon Uranium Uranium Thorium once-through recycle 11.5 ---- 0.36 18.5 >170 Non- Electricity generation potential from renewable sources Renewable in India ( as fraction of 8 trillion units)renewable WHILE WE MUST MAKE Hydro Other renewables solar (wind+biomass) FULL USE OF ALL AVAILABLE ENERGY RESOURCES ONLY 0.075 0.0225 1.0* THORIUM AND SOLAR *Would need ~45,000 sq.km which corresponds to a ENERGY IS SUSTAINABLE fourth of barren and uncultivable land in India IN THE LONG RUN(FUSION ENERGY NOT CONSIDERED FOR THE PRESENT)
We do not know how close we are to the tipping point. However we need to act now to secure survival of our future generations. Incidentally both Global average temperature over.last one and a half century nuclear and solarshowing a more or less steady cause least carbon-increase over the last fifty yearsor so. The fluctuations and their di-oxide emissioncycles can be correlated withvarious events like solar cycles
Stage 1: Since Thorium does not have a naturally occurring fissile content, one has to begin nuclear energy program with Uranium. Stage 2: For faster growth, plutonium breeding in fast reactors is necessaryStage 3:After generation capacity issufficiently enlarged throughfast reactors, Thorium cansustain the generationcapacity with a wide range ofchoices, lower minor actinideburden and greaterproliferation resistance
Three Stage Indian Nuclear Power Programme Globally Advanced Globally Unique 100 95 91 90 90 89 Technology 90 84 86 85 84 83 82Availability 85 79 80 75 World class 75 70 65 60 performance 55 50 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Stage – I Stage - II Stage - III PHWRs Fast Breeder Reactors Thorium Based Reactors • 18 – Operating (4460 MWe) • 40 MWth FBTR - Operating since • 4– 700 MWe units under 1985 • 30 kWth KAMINI- Operating construction (2800 Mwe) • Technology Objectives realised •Several 700 MWe units • 500 MWe PFBR- • 300 MWe AHWR- planned Under Construction ready for deployment LWRs • Pre-project activities for two • 2 --BWRs Operating (320 more FBRs approved • Availability of ADS can enable MWe) • TOTAL POWER POTENTIAL 530 early introduction of Thorium on a • 2 -- VVERs under large scale GWe (including 300 GWe with Thorium) construction (2000 Mwe) No additional mined uranium ENERGY POTENTIAL IS • Several LWR Units planned is needed for this scale up VERY LARGE
Strategy for long-term energy security The deficit is practically 1400 wiped out in 2050 1300 LWR import: 40 GWe 1200 Period: 2012-2020 1100 FBR using spent 1000 fuel from LWR Installed capacity (GWe) 900 LWR (Imported) 800 Nuclear (Domestic 700 3-stage Projected programme) 600 requirement* 500 Hydrocarbon 400 Coal domestic 300 200 Non-conventional 100 0 Hydroelectric 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 *Ref: “A Strategy for Growth of Electrical Energy in Year* - Assuming 4200 kcal/kg India”, document 10, August 2004, DAE
Energy Source Death Rate (deaths per TWh)Coal world average 161 (26% of world energy, 50% of electricity)Coal China 278Coal USA 15Oil 36 (36% of world energy)Natural Gas 4 (21% of world energy)Biofuel/Biomass 12Peat 12Solar (rooftop) 0.44 (less than 0.1% of world energy)Wind 0.15 (less than 1% of world energy)Hydro 0.10 (Europe death rate, 2.2% of world energy)Hydro - world including Banqiao) 1.4 (about 2500 TWh/yr and 171,000 Banqiao dead)Nuclear 0.04 (5.9% of world energy)http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/deaths-per-twh-by-energy-source.html Risks with nuclear energy are the least
Projected health consequences from low doses to large sections of population are questionableIN CASE OF CHERNOBYLESTIMATED CONSEQUENCESAN ESTIMATE IN 2006—93,000 WILL DIE DUE TO CANCER UP TO THEYEAR2056ANOTHER ESTIMATE IN 2009---985,000 DIED TILL 2004 Driven byACTUAL CONSEQUENCE conservative linearTOTAL DEATHS; no threshold62 (47 PLANT, 15 DUE TO THYROID CANCER ) principle (which isACUTE RADIATION SYNDROME; not substantiated134 (OUT OF WHICH 28 HAVE DIED) surveys in highINCREASED CANCER INCIDENCE; natural radiationAMONG RECOVERY WORKERS background areas)THYROID CANCER; (CURABLE, WAS AVOIDABLE) we tend to create6000 ( 15 HAVE DIED) avoidable trauma in public mind
There is already a large used uranium fuel inventory (~270,000 tons as per WNA estimate) While the spent fuel would be a sufficiently large energy resource if recycled, its permanent disposal is in my view an unacceptable security and safety risk (plutonium mine?) We need to adopt ways to liquidate the spent fuel inventory through recycle France today recycles entire spent fuel arising. Recycle is a credible option. Development of Partitioning and Transmutation technologies can in principle effectively address long term waste management challenge. Waste management challenge can be effectively met through recycle
The Indian Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR),a quick, safe, secure and proliferation resistant solution for the energy hungry worldAHWR is a 300 MWe vertical pressure tube type, boiling light water cooled and heavy watermoderated reactor (An innovative configuration that can provide low risk nuclear energy usingavailable technologies) Major design objectives Significant fraction of Energy from Thorium Top Tie Plate Displacer Water Rod Several passive features Tube 3 days grace period Fuel Pin No radiological impact AHWR can be configured to accept a Passive shutdown system to address range of fuel types insider threat scenarios. including LEU, U-Pu , Th-Pu , LEU-Th and Design life of 100 years. 233U-Th in full core Bottom Tie Plate Easily replaceable coolant channels. AHWR Fuel assembly
AHWR 300-LEU is a simple 300 MWe system fuelledwith LEU-Thorium fuel, has advanced passive safety features, high degree of operator forgivingcharacteristics, no adverse impact in public domain, high proliferation resistance and inherent security strength. 600 Peak clad Clad temperature (K) 10 sec delay temperature hardly 590 5 sec delay rises even in the 580 2 sec delay extreme condition of complete station 570 blackout and 560 failure of primary and secondary 550 systems. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Reactor Block Components Time (s)AHWR300-LEU provides a robust design againstexternal as well as internal threats, including insidermalevolent acts. This feature contributes to strongsecurity of the reactor through implementation oftechnological solutions.
PSA calculations for AHWR indicate practically zero probability of a serious impact in public domainPlant familiarization & Level-3 : Atmospheric Dispersion With SWS: Serviceidentification of design Consequence Analysis Water System APWS: Activeaspects important to Process Watersevere accident System Release from Containment ECCS HDRBRK: ECCS Header BreakPSA level-1 : Identification LLOCA: Largeof significant events with Break LOCAlarge contribution to CDF Level-2 : Source Term (within SLOCA MSLBOB: Main Steam Line Containment) Evaluation through SWS 15% Break Outside 63% Analysis Containment Contribution to CDF Level-1, 2 & 3 PSA activity block diagram 10-10 10 -10 Frequency of Exceedence 10-11 10 -11 -12 10-12 10 10-13 10 -13 10-14 10 -14 110 mSv 0.1 Sv 1.0 Sv 10 Sv -3 -2 -1 0 10 10 10 Thyroid Dose (Sv) at 0.5 Km Iso-Dose for thyroid -200% RIH + wired shutdown Variation of dose with frequency exceedence system unavailable (Wind condition in January on western 14 (Acceptable thyroid dose for a child is 500 mSv) Indian side)
STRONGER PROLIFERATIONAmount of Plutonium in spent fuel per unit energy 30 25 Total Fissile RESISTANCE WITH AHWR 300-LEU 20 (kg/TWhe) 15 Much lower Plutonium production. 10 Plutonium in spent fuel contains lower fissile fraction, much higher 238Pu content 5 0 Modern MODERN AHWR300- AHWR300-LEU which causes heat generation & Uranium in LWR LWR LEU spent fuel contains significant 232U content which leads to hard gamma emitters. 238Pu 3.50 % 9.54 % 239Pu 51.87 % 41.65 % 240Pu 23.81 % 21.14 % The composition of the fresh as well as the 241Pu 12.91 % 13.96 % spent fuel of AHWR300-LEU makes the fuel cycle inherently proliferation resistant. 242Pu 7.91 % 13.70 % 232U 0.00 % 0.02 % Uranium in spent fuel contains about 8% 233U 0.00 % 6.51 % fissile isotopes, and hence is suitable for 234U 0.00 % 1.24 % further energy production through reuse in 235U 0.82 % 1.62 % other reactors. Further, it is also possible to 236U 0.59 % reuse the Plutonium from spent fuel in fast 3.27 % 238U 98.59 % 87.35 % reactors.
Present deployment MOX Thorium Of nuclear power Reprocess Thermal Spent Fuel Fast Enrichment reactors Reactor Uranium LEU Plant For growth in nuclear LEU Thorium Recycle Thorium generation fuel beyond thermal reactor potential 233U Thorium LEU- Nuclear power with Thorium greater proliferation resistance Safe & Thorium Secure Reactors Reactors For ex. AHWR Recycle For ex. Acc. Driven MSR Thorium
CHALLENGES IN SOLAR TECHNOLOGYDrive capital costs downLow cost energy storage systemsSolar biomass hybridsSolar thermal photovoltaic hybridsLarge solar thermal systems not dependent onavailability of waterTechnology initiatives 1.Higher efficiency / non-toxic PV materials 2.High temperature photovoltaics 3.Self cleaning abrasion resistant surfaces 4.Recycle of Carbon-di-oxide to fluid hydrocarbon substitutes 5. ---------------
Sustainable development of energy sector Transition to Fossil Carbon Free Energy Cycle Carbon/ ENERGYGREATER Fossil Hydrocarbons CARRIERSSHARE FOR Energy Electricity (In storage or WASTENUCLEAR IN Resources transportation)ELECTRICITY • CO2 ElectricitySUPPLY • Electricity • H2O • Fluid fuelsREPLACE • OtherFOSSIL Hydrogen (hydro-carbons/ oxides andHYDRO- products Sun hydrogen)CARBON IN APROGRESSIVEMANNER CH4 Fluid Nuclear Hydro carbonsRECYCLE Energy CO2 chemicalCARBON- Resources Biomass reactorDIOXIDE CO2 OtherDERIVE MOST recycleOF PRIMARY Nuclear Recycle modesENERGY Sustainable Waste Management StrategiesTHROUGHSOLAR & Urgent need to reduce use of fossil carbon in a progressive mannerNUCLEAR
Reduced Plutonium generation High 238Pu fraction and low fissile contentAmount of Plutonium in spent fuel per unit energy 30 of Plutonium Total 238Pu Fissile 239Pu 25 240Pu 241Pu 20 242Pu (kg/TWhe) 15 MODERN AHWR300-LEU LWR 238Pu 3.50 % 238Pu 9.54 % 10 239Pu 51.87 % 239Pu 41.65 % 240Pu 23.81 % 240Pu 21.14 % 5 241Pu 12.91 % 241Pu 13.96 % 242Pu 7.91 % 242Pu 13.70 % 0 MODERN AHWR300-LEU The French N4 PWR is considered as representative of a modern LWR.. The reactor has been referred from “Accelerator-driven LWR Systems (ADS) and Fast Reactor (FR) in Advanced Nuclear Fuel Cycles”, OECD (2002) STRONGER PROLIFERATION RESISTANCE WITH AHWR 300-LEU MUCH LOWER PLUTONIUM PRODUCTION Much Higher 238Pu & Lower Fissile Plutonium
Presence of 232U in uranium from spent fuel The 232U composition 233U 234U of the fresh 235U 236U as well as the 238U AHWR300-LEU spent fuel of MODERN LWR AHWR300-LEU 232U 232U 0.02 % 0.00 % 233U 6.51 % 233U 0.00 % makes the 234U 234U 1.24 % 0.00 % 235U 0.82 % 235U 1.62 % fuel cycle 236U 236U 3.27 % 0.59 % 238U 98.59 % 238U 87.35 % inherentlyUranium in the spent fuel contains about 8% fissile proliferationisotopes, and hence is suitable to be reused in otherreactors. Further, it is also possible to reuse the resistant.Plutonium from spent fuel in fast reactors.