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Global Warming
 

Global Warming

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Awareness of a global warming

Awareness of a global warming

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  • This slideshow present an overview of global warming issues, last updated 8/11/2006. A more detailed analysis of global warming issues is available at http://www.godandscience.org/apologetics/global_warming.html, including a printable PDF version. Auto-run with narration at http://godandscience.org/ppt/global_warming_narration.ppt 

Global Warming Global Warming Presentation Transcript

  • Global Warming Will Human-Induced Climate Change Destroy the World? By Rich Deem www.GodAndScience.org Note: This slideshow is NOT meant to be printed. View in slideshow mode only because of extensive builds and animations. Go to the website for a printable copy. Requires PowerPoint 2003 or PowerPoint Viewer 2003. Click Here for a PowerPoint Presentation with Narration(http:// godandscience.org/ppt/global_warming_narration.ppt )
  • Introduction
    • Is the world getting warmer?
    • If so, are the actions of mankind to blame for earth’s temperature increases?
    • What can/should be done about these issues?
    • Are the potential resolutions worth the cost to implement them?
  • History of Earth’s Climate
    • Earth formed ~4.6 billion years ago
    • Originally very hot
    • Sun’s energy output only 70% of present
    • Liquid water present ~4.3 billion years ago (zircon dating)
    • Much of earth’s early history erased during late heavy bombardment (~3.9 billion years ago)
  • History of Earth’s Climate
    • Life appeared ~3.8 billion years ago
    • Photosynthesis began 3.5-2.5 billion years ago
      • Produced oxygen and removed carbon dioxide and methane (greenhouse gases)
      • Earth went through periods of cooling (“Snowball Earth”) and warming
    • Earth began cycles of glacial and interglacial periods ~3 million years ago
  • Earth’s Temperature Sun Solar Energy Solar Energy
  • Earth’s Temperature Sun Solar Energy Radiative Cooling
  • Earth’s Temperature Sun Solar Energy Radiative Cooling
  • Earth’s Temperature Sun Solar Energy Radiative Cooling
  • Greenhouse Effect Sun
  • Earth’s Atmospheric Gases 99% 1% Non- Greenhouse Gases Greenhouse Gases Nitrogen (N 2 ) Oxygen (O 2 ) Water (H 2 O) Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Methane (CH 4 )
  • Runaway Greenhouse Effect
    • 97% carbon dioxide
    • 3% nitrogen
    • Water & sulfuric acid clouds
    • Temperature: 860°F
    Sun Venus
  • Carbon Dioxide
  • Carbon Dioxide Levels 170 220 270 320 370 420 200000 400000 600000 Time (YBP) CO 2 (ppm) Vostok Ice Core Dome Concordia 0 Muana Loa Readings CO 2 Levels Since 1958 310 330 350 370 10 20 30 40 CO 2 (ppm) 0
  • Worldwide Carbon Emissions Carbon (10 9 metric tons) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year Liquid fuel Total Gas fuel Solid fuel
  • Annual Carbon Emissions 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 0 4 6 8 2 Year Carbon (10 9 metric tons) Annual carbon emissions Atmospheric CO 2 Atmospheric CO 2 average
  • Future Carbon Dioxide Levels
    • Increasing CO 2 emissions, especially in China and developing countries
    • Likely to double within 150 years:
      • Increased coal usage
      • Increased natural gas usage
      • Decreased petroleum usage (increased cost and decreasing supply)
  • Kyoto Protocol
    • Adopted in 1997
    • Cut CO 2 emissions by 5% from 1990 levels for 2008-2012
    • Symbolic only, since cuts will not significantly impact global warming
  • Past Temperatures
  • Recorded Worldwide Temperatures -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year  Mean Temperature (°C) Flat Decreasing
  • Historic Los Angeles Temperatures Winter Temperatures 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Summer Temperatures 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Annual Temperatures 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Temperature (°C)
  • 2005 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980 -3 -2.5 -1.5 -1 -.5 -.1 .1 .5 1 1.5 2.5 3.4
  • Past Temperatures Measurement
    • Proxy – a method that approximates a particular measurement (e.g., temperature)
      • Ice cores
      • Pollen records
      • Plant macrofossils
      • Sr/Ca isotope data
      • Oxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite (stalactites and stalagmites)
  • Temperature History of the Earth
    • Little ice age (1400-1840) – 1°C cooler
    • Medieval warm period (800-1300) – 1°C warmer than today
    • Cool/warm cycles occur ~1,500 years
    • Affect mostly Northeastern U.S. and North Atlantic
    • Mostly due to changes in thermohaline circulation 
    • Dramatic shutdown of thermohaline circulation occurred 8,200 years ago as a large lake in Canada flooded the North Atlantic
  • Main Ocean Currents Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 4-2
  • Temperature History of the Earth
    • For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods
    • These climate periods are largely the result of cycles in the earth’s orbit – precession, obliquity, and eccentricity
  • Orbital Parameters: Precession Perihelion Apehelion
  • Orbital Parameters: Obliquity 22.5 ° 24.5 °
  • Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity Minimum: 0.005 Maximum: 0.061 Not to scale! To Scale! Perihelion Apehelion Apehelion
  • Orbital Parameters & Earth’s Climate Age (kya) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Eccentricity (100 ky) Temperature Obliquity (41 ky) Precession (22 ky)
  • Temperature History of the Earth
    • For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods
    • Last ice age began to thaw 15,000 years ago, but was interrupted by the “Younger Dryas” event 12,900 years ago
  • Younger Dryas Event -55 -50 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 0 5 10 15 20 Age (kya) Temperature (°C) 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 Snow Accumulation (m/yr) Younger Dryas Little Ice Age Ice Age Medieval Warm
  • Younger Dryas Event -44 -43 -42 -41 -40 -39 -38 -37 -36 -35 -34  18 O (Greenland) -8.0 -7.5 -7.0 -6.5 -6.0 -5.5 -5.0 -4.5 -4.0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16  18 O (China) Younger Dryas Age (kya)
  • Temperature History of the Earth
    • Middle Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million ya)
    • Temperatures: 2°C higher than today.
      • 20°C higher at high latitudes
      • 1°C higher at the Equator
    • Sea levels were 100 ft higher
    • Causes
      • CO 2 levels that were 100 ppm higher
      • Increased thermohaline circulation
  • Temperature History of the Earth
    • Eocene (41 million years ago)
    • Opening of the Drake Passage (between South America and Antarctica).
    • Increased ocean current exchange
      • Strong global cooling
      • First permanent glaciation of Antarctica ~34 million years ago
  • Temperature History of the Earth
    • Paleocene Thermal Maximum (55 mya)
    • Sea surface temperatures rose 5-8°C
    • Causes
      • Increased volcanism
      • Rapid release of methane from the oceans
  • Temperature History of the Earth
    • Mid-Cretaceous (120-90 mya)
    • Much warmer
    • Breadfruit trees grew in Greenland
    • Causes
      • Different ocean currents (continental arrangement)
      • higher CO 2 levels (at least 2 to 4 times higher than today, up to 1200 ppm)
  • Recent Temperature Changes
  • “ Hockey Stick” Controversey 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 -0.8 Year -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Temperature Change ( °C) Direct temperature measurements Mann et al. 1999
  • Is the Hockey Stick Correct? Mann et al. 1999 Esper et al. 2002 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 -2 -1 0 1 2 Temperature Change ( °C) 2000 Year
  • Is the Hockey Stick Correct? -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 Year Temperature Change (°C) Mann et al. 1999 Esper et al. 2002 Moberg et al. 2005
  • U.S. National Academy of Sciences: June 2006 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 -0.8 Year -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Temperature Change ( °C) “ high level of confidence” “ 2:1 chance of being right”
  • Atmospheric Temperatures -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1980 1990 2000 Year -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1980 1990 2000 Year Temperature Cgange (°C) Troposphere Stratosphere
  • CO 2 Concentration Vs. Temperature 170 220 270 320 370 0 200000 400000 600000 Time (YBP) CO 2 (ppm) Antarctica 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 SST (°C) Tropical Pacific
  • Consequences of Global Warming
  • Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1920 1960 2000 Year Temperature Change (°C) 1920 1960 2000 Year Northern vs. Southern Latitude Land vs. Ocean Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean
  • 2005 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980 -3 -2.5 -1.5 -1 -.5 -.1 .1 .5 1 1.5 2.5 3.4
  • Ice Sheets Melting?
    • GRACE (gravity measured by satellite) found melting of Antarctica equivalent to sea level rise of 0.4 mm/year (2 in/century)
    • Zwally, 2005 (satellite radar altimetry)
      • confirmed Antarctica melting
      • Greenland ice melting on exterior, accumulating inland (higher precipitation)
  • Changes in Antarctica Ice Mass 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 2003 2004 2005 Ice Mass (km 3 ) Year
  • Rise in Sea Levels?
    • Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century)
    • Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm/yr 2
    • If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level rise
    • Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealistic
  • Changing Sea Levels 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 -20 -10 0 10 20 Relative Sea Level (cm) Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5 Amsterdam, Netherlands Brest, France Swinoujscie, Poland Global Temperature Change
  • Sea Levels for 450,000 Years Time (KYBP) Sea Level (m) 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 -120 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 SST (°C) Tropical Pacific
  • Increase in Hurricanes?
    • Two studies showed the total number of hurricanes has not changed
    • However, the intensity of hurricanes has increased (more category 4 and 5 hurricanes and cyclones)
    • Probably due to higher sea surface temperatures (more energy)
    • Difficult to know if this trend will continue
  • How Much Temperature Increase?
    • Some models propose up to 9 ° C increase this century
    • Two studies put the minimum at 1.5 ° C and maximum at 4.5 °C or 6.2°C
    • Another study puts the minimum at 2.5°C
  • Wildlife Effects
    • Polar Bears
      • Require pack ice to live
      • Might eventually go extinct in the wild
    • Sea turtles
      • Breed on the same islands as their birth
      • Could go extinct on some islands as beaches are flooded
    • Other species may go extinct as rainfall patterns change throughout the world
  • Effect on Humans
    • Fewer deaths from cold, more from heat
    • Decreased thermohaline circulation
      • Cooler temperatures in North Atlantic
    • CO 2 fertilization effect
    • Precipitation changes
        • Droughts and famine (some areas)
        • Expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union
  • Potential Worldwide Precipitation Changes -50 -20 -10 -5 5 10 20 50
  • Cost to Stabilize CO 2 Concentrations 450 550 650 750 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Carbon Dioxide (ppm) Cost (Trillons U.S. Dollars)
  • Possible Solutions to Global Warming
  • Mitigation of Global Warming
    • Conservation
      • Reduce energy needs
      • Recycling
    • Alternate energy sources
      • Nuclear
      • Wind
      • Geothermal
      • Hydroelectric
      • Solar
      • Fusion?
  • Storage of CO 2 in Geological Formations
    • Depleted oil and gas reservoirs
    • CO 2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery
    • Deep saline formations – (a) offshore (b) onshore
    • CO 2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery
    Adapted from IPCC SRCCS Figure TS-7 3a 2 3b 1 4
  • Conclusions
    • Global warming is happening
    • Most warming is probably the result of human activities
    • There will be positive and negative (mostly) repercussions from global warming
    • The costs to mitigate global warming will be high – better spent elsewhere?