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Presentacion quebe2004 corr Presentacion quebe2004 corr Presentation Transcript

  • Food changes and food security: main effects of economic and trade policies on Venezuelan consumer, 1990-2002 José Daniel Anido Rivas At theCentro de Investigaciones Agroalimentarias (CIAAL), Universidad de LosAndes. Mérida, Venezuela. e-mail: anidoriv@ula.ve; anidoriv@yahoo.com Address: Núcleo La Liria, edificio G “Leocadio Hontoria, 2º piso, CIAAL. Mérida 5101, Venezuela
  • Inside …1. Introduction2. Methodological Aspects3. Chronology of the Main Economic and Trade Policies implanted in Venezuela, 1989-20024 The Effects of Policies on the Main Variables Related to Food Security5. Conclusions6. Questions and comments
  • 1. Introduction • 45 years of democratic era (1958-2004) • An increasing stage of Investment and GDP (until 1978), followed by a deep decreasing stage Venezuela: Evolution ofa l p eperacapita income,n1957-2002 0 V e n e zu e la : P r iv a t e r e real r c p it a in v e s t m e t , 1 9 5 7 - 2 0 0 140 34.000   Thousands of constant Bolivares of 1984 120 32.000  Constant Bolivares of 1984 100  30.000   80 28.000     60   26.000    40       24.000                       20  22.000 0 1962 1993 19991997 1957 1957 1959 1960 1960 1961 1963 1963 1964 1965 1966 1966 1968 1969 1969 1970 1972 1973 19751974 1975 1976 19781977 1978 1979 1981 1980 1981 1982 19841983 1985 19871986 1987 1990 1989 1990 1991 1993 1992 19961994 1995 1996 1998 1999 20022000 1958 1967 19721971 1984 1988 20.000 Ye a r  P ri vat e re a l p e r c a p it a i n ve s t m e n t S o u r c e : A c u er d o S o c ia l , 2 0 0 3 • Adjustment requirement: the recent era
  • Methodological Aspects…• Purpose: show the impact of economic and trade policies on the food changes in Venezuela, specially during the last three governments (1989-1992)• Indicators: economic policies goals, macroeconomics variables and food availability, consumption and security variables• Sources: economic policies goals, macroeconomics variables and food availability, consumption and security variables (Planning Ministries of different periods, Central Bank of Venezuela, National Institute for Nutrition, Universidad de Los Andes, Secondary sources, own calculations)
  • Chronology of Policies… Structural adjustments (1989-1992) Carlos Andrés Pérez II * Freeing prices of goods * Goods and services opening markets * Floating exchange currency (flexible and unique) * Financial reforms * Stimulus for foreign investment * Privatization program * Less State, More Market * Agri-food sector subsidies elimination or substitution * Agricultural portfolio reduction * Fringe prices to protect agricultural domestic production
  • Chronology of Policies… Non-orthodox and Orthodox adjustment (1994-1996) Rafael Caldera II * Emergency measures to rescue the financial system * Exchange control (until April 1996) * Enrollment in the World Commercial Organization (1995) * Group of Three and other regional integration agreements * Practice of fixing minimum prices in some agriculture goods * Social programs: Strategic Food Program (PROAL) and School Food Program * The Venezuela Agenda (1996), economic equilibrium and fight against inflation: - Floating exchange rate (no more exchange control) - Freeing interest rates - Public expenditure discipline (but without forgetting social matters) - Taxes increase
  • Chronology of Policies…The Bolivarian Revolution (1999-2000 and 2001 until present) Hugo Chávez •Institutional reform: Constituent process and New national Constitution (1999-2000) to “achieve sustainable and diversified economic growth, reduce inflation and increase the employment level, through fiscal and monetary policies” •The National Economic and Social Development Plan 2001-2007 to achieve 6 goals • The "missions" (Misiones, in Spanish: Robinson, Sucre, "Barrio Adentro", Identity... )
  • 4. Main impacts…Concerning the main variables of foodavailability Venezuela: main variables of food availability 30 50 3.000 Thousands Millions (billions) of constant Bs. Pérez Caldera Chávez  Food imports as % of total availability 29 40  2.800 Calories/people/day     28 30 2.600    27  2.400 20           10   26   2.200      0 25 2.000 1990 1989 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Food imports (5) Years Agricultural GDP Food availability for human consumption Source: MAT, BCV, INN-ULA, Own calculations
  • 4. Main impacts… Graph 3. Venezuela: changes on food patterns of calorie intake, 1989-2002 cer 200 Sti rt 150 fatA sugars 100 50 m ilks leg 0 fishes nutV Eggs veg Meats fru 1989-1993 1994-1998 1999-2002 Source: INN-ULA (Sev eral yars; own calculations
  • 4. Main impacts… (in average percentages…) 1989-93 1994-98 1999-2002 Cereals 38,4 38,3 37,0 Roots and tuber dry 5,5 5,5 6,5 Sugar and sweeteners 15,8 17,4 16,5 Legumes 2,2 1,9 1,7 Nut and oilcrop seeds 0,1 0,1 0,1 Vegetables 0,6 1,0 1,3 Fruits (except platain) 4,6 4,5 4,3 Meats 6,4 6,6 7,5 Eggs 0,8 0,9 1,0 Fish and shellfishes 1,5 1,8 1,7 Milk and derivatives 6,2 5,7 5,9 Visible fats 17,0 15,2 15,3 Spices 0,0 0,0 0,0 Stimulants 0,7 1,1 1,3 TOTAL FCA (Kcal) 100,0 100,0 100,0
  • 4. Main impacts…Concerning the infant nutritionalsituation… Venezuela: Prevalence of malnutrition in child population, 1990-2002 (in percent values, %) Indicator / year Weigth-for-Height (WfH) Weigth-for-Age (WfA) Height-for-Age (HfA) 1990 16,06 24,77 31,08 1993 12,17 18,22 28,43 1994 11,44 17,87 28,65 1999 11,74 18,79 29,10 2002 12,92 18,93 28,89 Source: INN (several years)…Decreasing figures on malnourish,but followed by an moderate growth (except in HfA)
  • 5. Main conclusions…1. Three different kinds of policies: Structural adjustment or orthodox (1989-1993): non- orthodox and orthodox measures (1994-1998) and “mixture” of policies (1999 until present) were observed2. An strong decreasing trend in GDP, private investment, percapita real income; and increasing trend in the agri-food GDP3. During 1989-1993 and 1994-1998, there was a strong linkbetween “food Import” and “food availabilities”. It changed inthe 1999-2002 (agri-food GDP is now very correlated)4. Irregular behavior in de FCA along de 1989-2002 period;however during FCA grew up in the 1989-1992; drop in 1993-1998period and trend to increase since then5. An important decline in the infant nutritional indicators (inrelative terms); however, in absolute terms they presentedalarming values
  • The End Thanks for your attention!¡Merci beaucoup pour votre attention! ¡Gracias por su atención!