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Energy security- Geography
 

Energy security- Geography

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    Energy security- Geography Energy security- Geography Presentation Transcript

    • ENERGY SECURITY
    • ENERGY SUPPLY, DEMAND AND SECURITY
    • ENERGY SOURCES
      • Renewable energy source :
        • Energy source capable of natural regeneration on a human time scale
        • E.g. solar power, wind power
      • Non-renewable energy source
        • Energy source that is finite on a human time scale
        • Once exhausted, it can only be replaced over considerable periods of geological time
        • E.g. coal, natural gas
      • Recyclable energy source
        • Reprocessed energy
        • E.g. uranium in nuclear fission can be used repeatedly
      • Primary energy
        • Energy found in natural resources
        • I.e. original sources of energy – including renewable and non-renewable
      • Secondary energy
        • Primary energy that has been converted to a more convenient form
        • E.g. electricity
    • DISTRIBUTION OF ENERGY RESERVES
      • Russia and Eastern Europe
        • High reserves of natural gas and coal
        • Amongst top ten countries for oil and uranium
        • Energy surplus
      • Europe
        • Dependent on energy imports
        • Low energy efficiency – high wastefulness
        • Lack of fossil fuel supply
        • Energy insecurity
      • Middle East
        • Large oil reserves
        • Unstable regimes affecting fossil fuel supply
        • Energy surplus
    • DISTRIBUTION OF ENERGY RESERVES CONTD.
      • North America
        • Large coal resources
        • Opportunity to exploit oil reserves in Arctic, Antarctic and other sensitive areas
        • Huge energy consumption – outweighs supplies
        • Energy insecurity
      • Asia (excluding Russia)
        • Large coal and uranium reserves
        • Rapidly increasing demand – outweighs supplies
        • Energy insecurity
      • Sub-Saharan Africa
        • Dependency on foreign TNCs to exploit supply, e.g. oil in Nigeria
        • Energy Poverty
    • PHYSICAL FACTORS AFFECTING ENERGY RESERVES
      • Climate
        • E.g. the need to keep cool in hot countries, by way of air conditioning, significantly increases energy consumption in these countries
      • Availability
        • E.g. geology determines availability of oil and coal
      • Local variations
        • E.g. cloud cover and wind speed affect availability of solar and wind energy
      • Solar variations
        • E.g. stronger sun and longer sunshine hours along equator, therefore more potential for solar energy
    • HUMAN FACTORS AFFECTING ENERGY RESERVES
      • Energy infrastructure
        • E.g. in LDCs, the infrastructure often doesn’t exist to extract energy reserves such as oil
      • Energy affordability
        • E.g. in some parts of the world where modern forms of energy are available, many people cannot afford to use it
      • Cultural preferences
        • E.g. tradition keeps people using traditional forms of energy such as open coal fires for heating
    • GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY
      • Energy Security
        • The extent to which an affordable, reliable and stable energy supply can be achieved
      • Factors affecting energy security
        • Natural hazards
        • Political instability
        • Dependency on imports
        • Range of energy sources used
        • Costs of energy
    • FACTORS AFFECTING UK’S ENERGY SECURITY
      • Gas availability
        • Diminishing North sea gas, expected to run out within 50 years
        • In 2004, over 90% of the UK’s gas supply was produced in the UK
        • In 2020, the gas supply from the UK is predicted to be less than 10%, with 20% expected to be imported from Norway, 40% from Europe (excluding Norway) and the rest from other parts of the world
        • Lead to decreasing political power of UK and increasing political power of gas rich nations, e.g. Russia (supplies 30% of European gas)
      • Oil availability
        • Volatile oil prices
        • Potential for political instability between UK and oil producing states
        • Reached peak oil production in USA in 1970
        • Many argue global peak oil was reached in 2006
      • Global warming and renewable energy concerns
        • Restrictions on over use of coal for energy
        • Limited amount of sun for solar panels
        • Concerns over nuclear safety and waste plus cost of building of nuclear plants
    • GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
      • Factors leading to increased energy consumption
        • Population increase
        • Improved standards of living
        • Industrialisation / economic development
        • Rural to urban migration
      • Future trends
        • Increasing power usage in China and India
        • Western Europe more energy efficient
        • Energy consumption in developing world expected to double by 2050
        • Energy consumption in developed world expected to increase by 1/3 by 2050
        • Energy consumption of developed and developing world expected to be equal by 2050
    • CHINA’S ENERGY SECURITY
      • Energy consumption parallels that of its economic development – it has more than quadrupled since 1980.
      • Energy Secure
        • China is the biggest producer of coal in the world, and relies on coal for 70% of its electricity generation.
        • The country also has large oil fields and controls 3% of the world’s oil reserves.
        • Though no longer self sufficient, can afford to import oil, predominantly from the Middle East.
        • Also relies on renewable energy; HEP (including the Three Gorges Dam) accounts for 16% of its energy production and therefore are plans to build HEP dams on all major rivers in China.
    • CHINA’S ENERGY SECURITY CONTD.
      • Energy Insecure
        • Dependency on coal – vulnerable to global warming sanctions.
        • Chinese government being pressure to find alternatives to coal in order to reduce its level of pollution and contribution to climate change.
        • China’s largest oil fields have now peaked and some say that oil will run out within two decades.
        • Oil deposits in the Tarim Basin, in the west of China, are difficult and expensive to exploit, due to its remote location and difficult geology.
        • China’s deepwater exploration for oil may be threatened by political conflict with Vietnam and the Philippines.
        • HEP: natural hazards are a major threat to dams, and after the Sichuan earthquake, plans for extensive construction of dams may be reconsidered
        • Natural gas: very expensive and difficult to build pipelines from gas fields in Western China while liquefied gas is in short supply
    • THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY INSECURITY
    • ENERGY PATHWAYS
      • Energy pathway
        • The flows of energy from producer to consumer
      • Oil pathways
        • Middle East exports the most oil – approximately 4000 barrels to Japan, 3000 to Europe and 2000 to North America
        • Former Soviet Union exports almost 7000 barrels
        • South America exports approximately 2,500 barrels to USA
        • Europe exports just 408 barrels – to North America
      • Gas pathways
        • Main gas pathway is trans-Siberian pipeline from Russia to Eastern Europe
        • New gas pipeline planned to transport gas from the Middle East to Eastern Europe to decrease dependency on Russia
    • ENERGY PATHWAYS CONTD.
      • Factors which make energy pathways vulnerable
        • Geopolitical connections between countries (Ukraine-Russia)
        • War – e.g. Gulf war, Iraq war
        • Strikes by energy workers
        • Damaged infrastructure from natural disasters
        • Disintegration of infrastructure (e.g. pipelines)
        • Terrorism
    • DISRUPTING ENERGY SUPPLIES: RUSSIA AND EUROPE
      • Russia and Ukraine Gas Dispute
        • In November / December 2004, Ukraine’s government changed.
        • This government had pro-Western policies as opposed to pro-Russian policies.
        • As a result, Russia quadrupled the price of its gas to Ukraine and the government of Ukraine refused to pay.
        • Gazprom (51% owned by Russian government) cut of the gas to Ukraine.
    • DISRUPTING ENERGY SUPPLIES: RUSSIA AND EUROPE CONTD.
      • Europe’s dependency on Russia
        • Russia supplies a large proportion of Europe’s gas, and most of this is piped through Ukraine.
        • When Gazprom stopped supplying gas to Ukraine, the flow of gas to the rest of Europe fell by 40% in some areas
        • Countries that rely on Russian gas could suffer economically if gas is cut
      • Europe’s energy security
        • Gazprom relies on income from gas exports to Europe
        • Russian gas was stable even during the Cold war
        • New pipelines planned which bypass Ukraine and Blarus
        • South Caucus pipeline will bring gas from Azerbaijan to Europe via Turkey
        • Europe looking alternative energy sources
    • DISRUPTING ENERGY SUPPLIES: RUSSIA AND EUROPE CONTD.
      • South Stream Pipeline
        • Proposed gas pipeline owned by Gazprom
        • Aims deliver gas from central Asia and Russia to central Europe and Italy through the Balkans
        • Will rival the proposed Nabucco pipeline, owned by the EU to deliver gas to Eastern Europe
        • EU believe that Russia aims to use their gas supplies for political power and to outcompete the Nabucco pipeline
    • LOOKING FOR MORE ENERGY
      • Canada’s oil sands
        • Oil sands are thick slurry composed of sand, water and type of oil called bitumen
        • Largest reserves of oil sands are in Alberta in Canada; produced a million barrels of oil per day in 2003 and plan to produce 5 million barrels a day by 2030
      • Costs of exploiting oil sands
        • Expensive to extract oil
        • Very energy intensive and a large source of greenhouse gas emissions – conventional oil production requires much less energy
        • Very water intensive – 2 to 5 barrels of water to produce every barrel of oil
        • Environmental impacts – removal of trees, shrubs and soil
    • LOOKING FOR MORE ENERGY: CANADA’S OIL SANDS
      • Benefits
        • Provide an alternative source of oil when other conventional soruces are unavailable for political or access reasons
        • Could meet 16% of North America’s demand for oil by 2030
        • Additional source of oil until more renewable sources are developed / implemented
        • Benefits Canadian economy – accounted for 20% of total exports in 2007
    • ENERGY PLAYERS
      • Cartel
        • An association of producers or suppliers
        • Formed to monopolise the production and distribution of a product to control prices
        • E.g. Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
      • Advantages of cartels for producers
        • Able to collectively control supply and therefore global prices
        • Maximises profits of producers – when state owned, also GDP
        • Political power – e.g. Yom Kippur war oil embargo where OPEC cut off supply to USA so they would stop supporting Israel
      • Disadvantages of cartels for producers
        • To ensure oil prices remain high, supply must be relatively low, meaning overall income is limited
      • Advantages of cartels for consumers
        • Aim of cartel is to have stable prices – increases reliability for consumer
      • Disadvantages of cartels for consumers
        • Commodity traders cannot control prices
        • Political instability / conflict may affect supply
        • Highest prices
    • ENERGY SECURITY AND THE FUTURE
    • GLOBAL ENERGY UNCERTAINTIES
      • Factors contributing to global energy uncertainties
        • Future performance of global economy
        • Scale of global population growth
        • Impact of rising living standards
        • Size of undiscovered oil and gas reserves
        • Discovery of new energy technologies
        • Scale of possible witch to renewable energies
        • Possible contribution of ‘unconventional’ oil sources
        • Emergent economies energy demands
    • RESPONSES TO INCREASING ENERGY DEMANDS
      • Business as usual
      • Do nothing – fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of energy worldwide
      • Benefits
        • No investment needed in renewable energy
      • Costs
        • 55% increase in global energy related C02 emissions by 2030
        • Emissions from electricity generation will account for 44% of global emissions by 2030
      • Multi-energy solution
      • Meeting future energy demands from a mixture of renewable, recyclable and non-renewable sources
      • Benefits
        • Reduces CO2 emissions as a result of clean energy production
      • Costs
        • Expensive to invest in renewable / recyclable energy
        • Nuclear energy controversial – nuclear waste and safety of plants
    • RESPONSES TO INCREASING ENERGY DEMANDS CONTD.
      • Energy conservation
      • Decreasing the amount of energy used
      • Benefits
        • Decrease global energy related CO2 emissions
        • Extends time that fossil fuels can be used
      • Costs
        • Likely to inhibit growth of developing countries
        • Requires large investment from governments globally
    • NUCLEAR ENERGY IN FRANCE
      • Benefits
        • 75% of electricity generated from nuclear power – helps to meet high energy demand
        • Largest exporter of electricity from nuclear power – increases GDP
        • Low levels of CO2 per capita
        • Helps meet targets set by Copenhagen summit
        • Environmentalists view (James Lovelock):
          • Amount of uranium needed is significantly less than coal and oil (small bottle of uranium = 200 tonnes of oil)
          • Amount of nuclear waste is minimal unlike 700 tonnes of CO2 produced by fossil fuels
          • Nuclear far cheaper while oil / coal prices will increase
      • Costs
        • Nuclear waste sent to Normandy for reprocessing – 97% recycled and 3% stored and disposed
        • Land needs to cleared to build plants – visual pollution
        • Danger of nuclear disaster (Chernobyl, 1986)
        • Expensive - €15 billion for nuclear waste disposal
        • Fear of terrorists getting hold of nuclear energy
    • NUCLEAR ENERGY IN CUMBRIA
      • Benefits
        • Employment – 10,000 employees, 90% from West Cumbria
        • Attracts investment
        • Increases local income and therefore council spending
      • Costs
        • Radioactive waste
        • Reliance on one industry – dangerous if it closes
        • Dangerous – 21 serious incidents of accidents between 1950 and 2000
        • Some waste dumped in Irish sea – Irish government pressuring Sellafield to close
        • Visual pollution – damages tourist industry
    • WIND POWER
      • Benefits
        • Wind is free – low efficiency is unimportant as it doesn’t coast to harness it and it is an infinite resource
        • Wind turbines save 4 million tonnes of carbon annually
      • Costs
        • Low efficiency – only 30% of energy harnessed in comparison with 60% for coal powered plants
        • Unreliable – power generated can double one day to the next – may not always meet demand so need fossil fuels as backup
        • Long process to build wind farms – must be approved by government, councils, locals etc.
        • Expensive to build wind turbines – price will increase as less efficient sites will have to be used (efficient sites already used)
        • Environmentalist’s point of view (James Lovelock again):
          • ‘ Far too late’ for renewable energy
          • 1 nuclear station = 3000 wind turbines
          • On-shore wind farms damage farmland that will be needed to grow food
          • Ruins aesthetic (visual pollution)
          • Inefficient
    • ENERGY CONFLICTS
      • Terrorist attack on Abqaiq oil processing plant
        • Al Qaida terrorists tried to take over Abqaiq oil processing plant in Saudi Arabia
        • Attempted to drive vehicles loaded with explosives into the compound
        • Two hour gun battle between officials and terrorists
        • Two terrorists and two guards killed but no damage to plant
      • US invasion of Iraq – possible reasons
        • Saddam Husain was considered a threat to the security of Western oil supplies in Middle East – by 2003 he was making deals with Russian and Chinese oil companies
      • Iran as an energy power
        • 3 rd largest oil reserves and 2 nd largest natural gas reserves
        • Japan and China both import 13% of their oil from Iran
        • Alliances developing between Moscow, Tehran and Beijing – energy exports from Russia and Iran in exchange for Chinese goods
    • RADICAL NEW APPROACHES
      • Kyoto protocol
      • Agreements for MDCs to cut emissions and for NICs to monitor emissions
      • Benefits
        • Long term agreement to reduce global CO2 emissions
      • Problems
        • NICs such as China and India had no obligation beyond monitoring and reporting emissions
        • USA didn’t sign protocol
      • Cap and trade scheme (2007)
      • Government sets a limit (cap) on carbon emissions – carbon emissions not used can be sold as credits to companies that produce over the limit
      • Benefits
        • Limits emissions in the private sector
        • Financial motivation for companies to use less energy credits so they sell them
      • Costs
        • Companies can continue releasing high emissions by buying energy credits from lower polluting companies
    • RADICAL NEW APPROACHES CONTD.
      • Green taxes
      • In the UK, vehicle exercise duties (VED) tax vehicles according to their level of CO2 emissions
      • Other taxes include fuel tax and aviation tax
      • Benefits
        • Encourages less polluting vehicles to be used
      • Problems
        • Those who can afford the VED may use pollution vehicles anyway
      • Combined heat and power (CHP)
      • Captures and regulates the waste heat produced in electricity generation
      • Benefits
        • Cuts emissions
        • Increases efficiency of electricity generation
        • Can use biofuels
      • Costs
        • Predominantly uses fossil fuels
        • Expensive