YPLA Strategic Analysis: South West Summary

Strategic AnalysisSouth West Summary Pete.Gisborne@ypla.gov.uk Strategic Analysis Manager YPLA Western Territory YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning

This presentation1. Context2. Participation2. The Learning Landscape4. Attainment & Progression YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning

South West 16-18 Population Projections 000s205.0200.0 over 6,700 fewer195.0 2011-2015190.0 2008-2017 SW 11% decline 16-18s185.0 Eng 13% decline 16-18s Plymouth 19% decline180.0 N.Soms 1% decline175.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning

Major industries in the South West800,000700,000 50% of all jobs600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,000 0 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning

% of 16-18s in jobs without training 16% 14% 12% 10% Eng 8% SW 6% Devon Soms 4% 2% 0% Ja 7 08No 8 Fe 9 10M 10Au 7 Ap 8 Se 9De 0 1 0 0 0 r-0 0 l- 1 -0 -1 g- n- p- b- c- n- v- ay ar Ju JuM YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning

Resident 16-19s leaving JSA to go into learning350300 HSBC US sub-prime250 warning Lehman Bros. bankrupt200150100 UK economy 50 in recession 0 Aug-99 Feb-00 Aug-00 Feb-01 Aug-01 Feb-02 Aug-02 Feb-03 Aug-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning

% of SW 16-18s NEET10%9%8%7%6% England South West5% B&NES4% Bristol3%2% UK economy in recession1%0% Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 ep-07 ep-08 ep-09 ep-10 S S S S YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning

Participation by SW 16-17s50,00040,00030,000 200520,000 2006 200710,000 2008 2009 0 YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning

Increasing presence of Academies – SW 16-18s50,00040,00030,000 Maintained20,000 Academies10,000 0 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 S04 S04 S04 S02 allocated YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning

16-18 participation and population trends and projections135,000130,000125,000120,000 Participation115,000 Population110,000105,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Measured Projected YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning

Annual 16-18 participation change required to hit 2013 RPA target600500400300 population200 participation100 0 YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team-100 Championing Young People’s Learning

SW learners by level3,000 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 78% of SSF learners @ L3 - static2,000 nearly half of FE learners 10% are @ L3 reduction1,000 0 Entry Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Other Entry Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Other Level Level Level Level FE School Sixth Forms YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning

16-18 travel to learn – major flows Lives Learns Number 3 year trendGreater Bristol Bristol City of Bristol 300 no trend [S.Gloucs] Filton 800 -13% South Gloucs City of Bristol 700 no trend [Bristol] St. Brendans 500 154%*into Hants Wilts Sparsholt 400 19% Totton 200 21% Bournemouth Brockenhurst 500 no trend Dorset Brockenhurst 400 23%Greater Devon Devon South Devon 900 13%Swindon Wiltshire New College 300 -8% Swindon College 300 no trend Swindon Cirencester 500 51%Greater Dorset Bournemouth & 500 38%Bournemouth Poole YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning Poole Bournemouth & 500 38% Poole

Number of 16-25s at ISPs, 2005/06 = 100% c.600 @ 200% £54k each 88 @ 150% £46k Cornwall each 100% Dorset c.400 @ £44k each 50% South West England 0% 06 07 08 09 10 11 20 20 20 20 20 20 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 0/ 0 0 0 0 0 120 20 20 20 20 20 YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning

Science &SW 16-18 SSF / Acad learning aims Maths = nearly 30% of all SW SSF Aims 35% ‘STEM’ - steady YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning

SW 16-18 FE learning aims by subject 16% ‘STEM’ – rising slightly YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning

Level 2 at 19 90% 85% 80%Percentage Attainment 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 19 in 2004/05 19 in 2005/06 19 in 2006/07 19 in 2007/08 19 in 2008/09 19 in 2009/10 Bristol B&NES SOUTH WEST ENGLAND YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning

Level 3 at 19 65% 60% 55%Percentage Attai nment 50% 45% 40% 35% 19 in 2004/05 19 in 2005/06 19 in 2006/07 19 in 2007/08 19 in 2008/09 19 in 2009/10 B&NES Swindon SOUTH WEST ENGLAND YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning

FSM gap at 19, levels 2 & 345%40%35%30%25%20% 19 in 2004/0515% 19 in 2005/0610% 19 in 2006/07 5% 19 in 2007/080% 19 in 2008/09 South West South West England England Cornwall Cornwall Gloucestershire Gloucestershire 19 in 2009/10 Level 2 Level 3 YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning

Attainment by 19 of learners attending SW schools at 1525,00020,00015,00010,000 No level 3 attained 5,000 Level 3 attained - English Neither English English or and/or English and maths maths or maths nor maths neither No level 2 at 16 Level 2 at 16 YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning

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YPLA Strategic Analysis: South West Summary

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