YPLA Strategic Analysis: South West Summary

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YPLA Strategic Analysis: South West Summary

  1. 1. Strategic AnalysisSouth West Summary Pete.Gisborne@ypla.gov.uk Strategic Analysis Manager YPLA Western Territory YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning
  2. 2. This presentation1. Context2. Participation2. The Learning Landscape4. Attainment & Progression YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning
  3. 3. South West 16-18 Population Projections 000s205.0200.0 over 6,700 fewer195.0 2011-2015190.0 2008-2017 SW 11% decline 16-18s185.0 Eng 13% decline 16-18s Plymouth 19% decline180.0 N.Soms 1% decline175.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning
  4. 4. Major industries in the South West800,000700,000 50% of all jobs600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,000 0 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning
  5. 5. % of 16-18s in jobs without training 16% 14% 12% 10% Eng 8% SW 6% Devon Soms 4% 2% 0% Ja 7 08No 8 Fe 9 10M 10Au 7 Ap 8 Se 9De 0 1 0 0 0 r-0 0 l- 1 -0 -1 g- n- p- b- c- n- v- ay ar Ju JuM YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning
  6. 6. Resident 16-19s leaving JSA to go into learning350300 HSBC US sub-prime250 warning Lehman Bros. bankrupt200150100 UK economy 50 in recession 0 Aug-99 Feb-00 Aug-00 Feb-01 Aug-01 Feb-02 Aug-02 Feb-03 Aug-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning
  7. 7. This presentation1. Context2. Participation2. The Learning Landscape4. Attainment & Progression YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning
  8. 8. % of SW 16-18s NEET10%9%8%7%6% England South West5% B&NES4% Bristol3%2% UK economy in recession1%0% Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 ep-07 ep-08 ep-09 ep-10 S S S S YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning
  9. 9. Participation by SW 16-17s50,00040,00030,000 200520,000 2006 200710,000 2008 2009 0 YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning
  10. 10. Increasing presence of Academies – SW 16-18s50,00040,00030,000 Maintained20,000 Academies10,000 0 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 S04 S04 S04 S02 allocated YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning
  11. 11. 16-18 participation and population trends and projections135,000130,000125,000120,000 Participation115,000 Population110,000105,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Measured Projected YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning
  12. 12. Annual 16-18 participation change required to hit 2013 RPA target600500400300 population200 participation100 0 YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team-100 Championing Young People’s Learning
  13. 13. SW learners by level3,000 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 78% of SSF learners @ L3 - static2,000 nearly half of FE learners 10% are @ L3 reduction1,000 0 Entry Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Other Entry Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Other Level Level Level Level FE School Sixth Forms YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning
  14. 14. This presentation1. Context2. Participation2. The Learning Landscape4. Attainment & Progression YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning
  15. 15. 16-18 travel to learn – major flows Lives Learns Number 3 year trendGreater Bristol Bristol City of Bristol 300 no trend [S.Gloucs] Filton 800 -13% South Gloucs City of Bristol 700 no trend [Bristol] St. Brendans 500 154%*into Hants Wilts Sparsholt 400 19% Totton 200 21% Bournemouth Brockenhurst 500 no trend Dorset Brockenhurst 400 23%Greater Devon Devon South Devon 900 13%Swindon Wiltshire New College 300 -8% Swindon College 300 no trend Swindon Cirencester 500 51%Greater Dorset Bournemouth & 500 38%Bournemouth Poole YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning Poole Bournemouth & 500 38% Poole
  16. 16. Number of 16-25s at ISPs, 2005/06 = 100% c.600 @ 200% £54k each 88 @ 150% £46k Cornwall each 100% Dorset c.400 @ £44k each 50% South West England 0% 06 07 08 09 10 11 20 20 20 20 20 20 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 0/ 0 0 0 0 0 120 20 20 20 20 20 YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning
  17. 17. Science &SW 16-18 SSF / Acad learning aims Maths = nearly 30% of all SW SSF Aims 35% ‘STEM’ - steady YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning
  18. 18. SW 16-18 FE learning aims by subject 16% ‘STEM’ – rising slightly YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning
  19. 19. This presentation1. Context2. Participation2. The Learning Landscape4. Attainment & Progression YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning
  20. 20. Level 2 at 19 90% 85% 80%Percentage Attainment 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 19 in 2004/05 19 in 2005/06 19 in 2006/07 19 in 2007/08 19 in 2008/09 19 in 2009/10 Bristol B&NES SOUTH WEST ENGLAND YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning
  21. 21. Level 3 at 19 65% 60% 55%Percentage Attai nment 50% 45% 40% 35% 19 in 2004/05 19 in 2005/06 19 in 2006/07 19 in 2007/08 19 in 2008/09 19 in 2009/10 B&NES Swindon SOUTH WEST ENGLAND YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning
  22. 22. FSM gap at 19, levels 2 & 345%40%35%30%25%20% 19 in 2004/0515% 19 in 2005/0610% 19 in 2006/07 5% 19 in 2007/080% 19 in 2008/09 South West South West England England Cornwall Cornwall Gloucestershire Gloucestershire 19 in 2009/10 Level 2 Level 3 YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning
  23. 23. Attainment by 19 of learners attending SW schools at 1525,00020,00015,00010,000 No level 3 attained 5,000 Level 3 attained - English Neither English English or and/or English and maths maths or maths nor maths neither No level 2 at 16 Level 2 at 16 YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team Championing Young People’s Learning

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