Workforce 2031: the changing age profile of the workforce in the South West

Workforce 2031: the changing age profile of the workforce in the South West Hilary Stevens Research Fellow, SLIM

Aims
Explore how the size of the working age population will change over the next twenty years
Identify impact of changes in state pension age
Describe how the age structure will change over time
Demonstrate that areas with the oldest workforces will age fastest creating wider intra-regional differences in age profile

A bit of context……
EU-27 population projected to increase by almost 20 million people between 2008 and 2050.
UK expected to be one of the fastest growing so that by 2050 the UK will have the largest population of all EU-27 countries. It is currently third behind Germany and France.
Sub-national projections suggest the South West will have 1¼ million more residents in 2031 than in 2006.
All local authority areas in the South West will share in this growth.

… more context

Local Authority Working age residents per dependent age (2008) Working age residents per dependent age (2031) National Ranking 2008 (out of 354) City of Bristol 2.1 2.3 20 Exeter 2.1 2.3 22 Plymouth 1.8 1.6 55 Swindon 1.7 1.7 66 Bath & NE Somerset 1.7 1.8 74 …… West Dorset 1.1 1.0 347 East Devon 1.1 1.1 349 West Somerset 1.1 1.0 351 East Dorset 1.1 1.0 352 Christchurch 1.0 0.9 354

Local Authority % working age residents age 50 and over (2008) % working age residents age 50 and over (2031) National Ranking 2008 (out of 354) Isles of Scilly 41.7 25.0 1 West Somerset 36.2 47.5 2 East Dorset 34.7 43.2 6 West Dorset 34.3 43.0 8 Caradon 33.1 38.1 12 Bournemouth 22.6 26.4 280 Plymouth 22.4 25.0 297 Swindon 22.4 29.4 299 Exeter 18.9 20.2 337 City of Bristol 17.8 20.8 346

Summary
Working age population will increase in absolute terms…
But will decline relative to the size of the population of dependent age
Changes to state pension age will account for a large proportion of the increase
Areas with the oldest workforces will age fastest creating wider intra-regional differences in age profile

Thank you for listening!
Hilary Stevens
Research Fellow
SLIM
University of Exeter
Tel: 01392 264854
[email_address]

Workforce 2031: the changing age profile of the workforce in the South West

by South West Observatory on Nov 11, 2009

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